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Impact evaluation of the social electricity tariff program in Brazil: Evidence from a regression discontinuity design 巴西社会电价计划的影响评估:来自回归不连续设计的证据
IF 9.2 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115143
Beatriz Morgado Marcoje , Laura Schiavon , Michelle Hallack , Danielle Carusi Machado , Mariana Weiss de Abreu
This paper evaluates Brazil's Social Electricity Tariff Program and its ability to improve electricity affordability for low-income households using a sharp Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD). Using data from the 2017–2018 Family Budget Survey (IBGE, 2018), we compare households just below and just above the income eligibility cutoff to estimate the causal effect of eligibility on electricity consumption and expenditures. We find that eligible households consume on average 20 kWh less electricity per month than households just above the cutoff, consistent with under-consumption near the threshold. Eligibility also reduces monthly electricity spending by R$15.35 on average. While statistically significant, this level of relief appears too small to meaningfully ease budget constraints, potentially encouraging households to restrict electricity use to remain within more subsidized consumption brackets. The results suggest that the current benefit schedule may be insufficient to ensure adequate access to modern energy services—such as thermal comfort and information and entertainment—while maintaining payment affordability. We discuss policy adjustments to better align subsidy levels and target heterogeneous household needs, and highlight the importance of accounting for regional and seasonal variation in electricity demand.
本文利用急剧回归不连续设计(RDD)评估了巴西的社会电价计划及其提高低收入家庭电力负担能力的能力。使用2017-2018年家庭预算调查(IBGE, 2018)的数据,我们比较了收入资格门槛略低于和略高于收入资格门槛的家庭,以估计资格对电力消费和支出的因果影响。我们发现,符合条件的家庭每月平均耗电量比刚好在临界值以上的家庭少20千瓦时,这与接近临界值的耗电量不足一致。获得资格还可以平均每月减少15.35雷亚尔的电费支出。虽然在统计上意义重大,但这种程度的缓解似乎太小,无法有效缓解预算紧张,可能会鼓励家庭限制用电量,以保持在更多补贴的消费范围内。结果表明,目前的福利计划可能不足以确保充分获得现代能源服务,如热舒适、信息和娱乐,同时保持支付能力。我们讨论了政策调整,以更好地调整补贴水平和针对不同的家庭需求,并强调了考虑电力需求的区域和季节变化的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Pathways to an equitable low-carbon future: The nexus of climate policy, emerging technologies, and just transitions 通往公平的低碳未来之路:气候政策、新兴技术和公正转型的关系
IF 9.2 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115202
Jie Liu, Alexander Opoku, Seth Acquah Boateng, Frank Agyemang Karikari
At the cost of social equity, advanced economies often make biased climate polices that target mostly emission reduction, which cause uneven benefits and inequality. This paper bridges this gap by investigating the impact of climate policy and technological innovation on the transition into a low-carbon economy in the G7 countries. The study uses Driscoll-Kraay error and Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality tests to examine the effect of renewable energy output (REO), Energy Intensity (ENU), Internet Usage (INT), and research and development (RND) on Just Transition Index (JTI), which measures income inequality, energy poverty, and air pollution. The results reveal that REO enhances just transition performance, suggesting that climate policies through renewable energy expansion foster decarbonization and social inclusion. ENU also shows a positive effect; this suggests that improved energy access enhances living standards. INT has the largest impact, confirming the role emerging in reducing inequity. The study concludes that equitable low-carbon transition in advanced economies requires integrated strategies aligning climate policies, emerging technologies, and energy access policies to ensure that efforts towards sustainability create fairness rather than increase inequalities.
发达经济体往往以社会公平为代价,制定以减排为主要目标的有偏见的气候政策,导致利益不均衡和不平等。本文通过调查气候政策和技术创新对七国集团国家向低碳经济转型的影响,弥合了这一差距。该研究使用Driscoll-Kraay误差和dumitrescue - hurlin因果关系检验来检验可再生能源产出(REO)、能源强度(ENU)、互联网使用(INT)和研发(RND)对衡量收入不平等、能源贫困和空气污染的公正转型指数(JTI)的影响。结果表明,REO提高了转型绩效,表明通过可再生能源扩张的气候政策促进了脱碳和社会包容。ENU也显示出积极的影响;这表明能源获取的改善提高了生活水平。INT的影响最大,证实了在减少不平等方面正在出现的作用。该研究的结论是,发达经济体公平的低碳转型需要综合战略,使气候政策、新兴技术和能源获取政策相协调,以确保可持续发展的努力创造公平,而不是增加不平等。
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引用次数: 0
The sustainability trilemma of land scarcity: Quantifying the societal cost of Taiwan's energy transition 土地短缺的可持续性三难困境:量化台湾能源转型的社会成本
IF 9.2 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115223
Xiaohu Zhao , Yulei Xie , Zhihui Tian , Qiao Hu , Mengjie Hou , Mingyang Deng , Shaorui Dong , Yuanrui Liu
Achieving sustainable development goals requires transitioning to renewable energy, but this creates intense competition for land, a critical and finite resource. The effectiveness of climate policies under such constraints remains poorly quantified. Using Taiwan as a case study for a land-constrained economy, we developed a power sector optimization model to analyze this conflict. We find that realistic land-use constraints are sufficient to cause the failure of market-based climate policies, stalling the energy transition even under high carbon prices. Consequently, direct policy mandates to achieve a 36% renewable target, while effective, incur substantial societal costs, increasing system-wide expenses by up to 112%. The model reveals that the least-cost pathway deepens the reliance on imported natural gas for system adequacy, posing a challenge to long-term supply resilience. Our findings reveal the profound economic trade-offs inherent in sustainable development and underscore the necessity of integrating energy policy with national land-use planning.
实现可持续发展目标需要向可再生能源过渡,但这造成了对土地这一关键而有限的资源的激烈竞争。在这些限制条件下,气候政策的有效性仍然难以量化。以台湾为例,我们建立了一个电力部门优化模型来分析这种冲突。我们发现,现实的土地利用限制足以导致以市场为基础的气候政策失败,即使在高碳价格下也会阻碍能源转型。因此,实现36%可再生能源目标的直接政策要求虽然有效,但会产生巨大的社会成本,使整个系统的费用增加高达112%。该模型显示,最低成本路径加深了对进口天然气的依赖,以确保系统充足性,对长期供应弹性提出了挑战。我们的研究结果揭示了可持续发展所固有的深刻的经济权衡,并强调了将能源政策与国家土地利用规划相结合的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
Scenario-based analysis of electric vehicle adoption in the United States: Technology, infrastructure, and electricity pricing 基于场景的美国电动汽车采用分析:技术、基础设施和电价
IF 9.2 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115218
Manlin Gong , Ruixiao Sun , Yuche Chen
This study investigates the impact of battery technology advancement, charging infrastructure development, and time-of-use (TOU) electricity pricing on vehicle adoption by 6 powertrain types in the United States through 2050. Using the Market Acceptance of Advanced Automotive Technologies (MA3T) model, we simulate 15 scenarios, examining individual cost factors and their combinations. We assess outcomes through market share, consumer surplus, and energy consumption. Results show that battery cost reductions are the strongest driver of EV adoption, increasing 2050 battery electric vehicle (BEV) share by 27 percentage points over baseline, raising annual consumer surplus by $511 per household, and reducing cumulative energy consumption by 16,610 trillion Btu. These gains are two to five times larger than those from other individual factors. Reducing home charging installation costs produces moderate impact, while TOU pricing alone yields only small gains, raising 2050 BEV market share by 1–2 percentage points. However, when cost factor improvements are combined, their effects are amplified beyond simple additivity. Pairing modest battery cost reductions with charging installation cost reductions and TOU pricing results in the largest 2050 BEV sales combined impact. The analysis demonstrates that moderate progress targeting multiple cost barriers may be more impactful than focusing on any single barrier.
本研究调查了电池技术进步、充电基础设施发展和分时电价(TOU)对美国6种动力总成类型到2050年的车辆采用的影响。使用先进汽车技术的市场接受度(MA3T)模型,我们模拟了15种情况,检查了单个成本因素及其组合。我们通过市场份额、消费者剩余和能源消耗来评估结果。结果显示,电池成本的降低是电动汽车采用的最大推动力,2050年电池电动汽车(BEV)的份额比基线增加了27个百分点,每户每年的消费者剩余增加了511美元,累计减少了16,610万亿Btu的能源消耗。这些收益是其他个体因素的2到5倍。降低家庭充电安装成本产生的影响不大,而单独的分时电价只能带来很小的收益,将2050年纯电动汽车的市场份额提高1-2个百分点。然而,当成本因素的改进结合在一起时,它们的影响就会被放大,而不仅仅是简单的加法。将电池成本的适度降低与充电安装成本的降低和分时电价的降低相结合,将对2050年纯电动汽车的销售产生最大的影响。分析表明,针对多种成本障碍的适度进展可能比专注于任何单一障碍更有效。
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引用次数: 0
Corrigendum to: Regional inequality of the European ETS-2 [Energy policy 208 (2026) 114891] 欧洲ETS-2的区域不平等[能源政策208(2026)114891]的更正
IF 9.2 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115023
Sigit Perdana , Marc Vielle
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引用次数: 0
The quality of rural industry development: Conceptual connotation, logical construction and measurement evaluation 农村工业发展质量:概念内涵、逻辑建构与测度评价
IF 5.4 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2026.102427
Di Su, Guogang Wang
This study addresses the need for systematic evaluation of rural industry development quality (RIDQ) in China’s rural revitalization strategy. Drawing on systems theory and value theory, we develop a conceptual framework defining RIDQ as the degree to which objective characteristics meet societal requirements, and construct a “three dimensions, seven categories, and sixteen indicators (3D7C16I)” evaluation system. Using multiple weighting methods (AHP-EWM, ridge regression, machine learning), 1967 county-level units in 2013, 2017, and 2022 are analyzed.
Findings: (1) RIDQ shows ”high in the east, low in the west” gradient with strong spatial autocorrelation. (2) Temporally, RIDQ grows rapidly first then differentiates. (3) High/low-level regions are stable, while middle-tier regions fluctuate. (4) Neighbor environments create poverty traps (low-level), gradual optimization (medium-level), or siphoning effects (high-level). These provide empirical basis for differentiated rural revitalization policies.
本研究探讨了中国乡村振兴战略中乡村产业发展质量的系统评价需求。借鉴系统论和价值论,构建了RIDQ为客观特征满足社会要求程度的概念框架,构建了“三维、七类、十六指标(3D7C16I)”评价体系。采用多元加权方法(AHP-EWM、脊回归、机器学习),对2013年、2017年和2022年的1967个县级单位进行了分析。结果表明:(1)RIDQ呈“东高西低”的梯度,空间自相关性强;(2)时间上,RIDQ先快速增长后分化。(3)高/低层区域稳定,中层区域波动。(4)周边环境产生贫困陷阱(低水平)、逐步优化(中等水平)或虹吸效应(高水平)。这为差别化乡村振兴政策提供了实证依据。
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引用次数: 0
Global agricultural carbon emission efficiency: Using machine learning techniques to reveal driving factors and forecast future trends 全球农业碳排放效率:利用机器学习技术揭示驱动因素并预测未来趋势
IF 5.4 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2026.102428
Wei Wang , Xiaodong Pei , Hongtao Jiang , Mumah Edwin , Yangfen Chen
Agricultural carbon emission efficiency (ACEE) is crucial for advancing global carbon neutrality goals. However, existing research at the national level often overlooks the function of agricultural carbon sinks and exhibits deficiencies in analyzing the driving mechanisms of ACEE and making precise predictions. To address this, this paper constructs a more comprehensive ACEE measurement system and introduces machine learning techniques to thoroughly analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics, driving factors, and future trends of global ACEE. Firstly, by incorporating agricultural carbon sinks as an ecological output, this study develops an ACEE measurement system covering 162 countries, overcoming the limitations of previous studies that were often confined to regional levels or neglected carbon sinks. Measurements based on the global super-efficiency Epsilon-Based Measure model reveal that from 1995 to 2021, ACEE generally increased across countries, but spatial differentiation intensified, exhibiting a significant Matthew effect. Secondly, this study combines interpretable machine learning and geographically and temporally weighted regression to unveil the driving mechanisms of ACEE from socio-economic, agricultural, and climatic dimensions. Agricultural production level is the primary driver for enhancing ACEE, and economic development level also demonstrates a significant promoting role. However, rainfall intensity and agrochemical use intensity are the main inhibiting factors. Urbanization level, industrial structure, and agricultural trade openness negatively affect ACEE in most countries, while the positive effects of technological progress have been diminishing annually. Finally, to enhance prediction accuracy, this study employs an optimized backpropagation neural network model to predict ACEE for different country groups from 2025 to 2035. The ACEE gap between high- and low-level country groups is projected to further widen, and the global divergence trend will become more pronounced.
农业碳排放效率(ACEE)对于推进全球碳中和目标至关重要。然而,国家层面的现有研究往往忽视了农业碳汇的功能,在分析ACEE的驱动机制和做出准确预测方面存在不足。为了解决这一问题,本文构建了一个更全面的ACEE测量系统,并引入机器学习技术,深入分析了全球ACEE的时空动态、驱动因素和未来趋势。首先,通过将农业碳汇作为生态产出,构建了覆盖162个国家的ACEE测量体系,克服了以往研究往往局限于区域层面或忽视碳汇的局限性。基于全球超效率epsilon测度模型的测量结果显示,1995 - 2021年,ACEE在各国间总体呈上升趋势,但空间分异加剧,表现出显著的马太效应。其次,本研究结合可解释机器学习和地理和时间加权回归,从社会经济、农业和气候维度揭示ACEE的驱动机制。农业生产水平是提高ACEE的首要驱动力,经济发展水平也有显著的促进作用。而降雨强度和农药使用强度是主要的抑制因素。在大多数国家,城市化水平、产业结构和农业贸易开放对ACEE产生负向影响,而技术进步的正向影响呈逐年递减趋势。最后,为了提高预测精度,本研究采用优化后的反向传播神经网络模型对2025 - 2035年不同国家群体的ACEE进行了预测。预计ACEE高、低水平国家组之间的差距将进一步扩大,全球分化趋势将更加明显。
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引用次数: 0
Financial innovation and local governments investment 金融创新与地方政府投资
IF 1 3区 社会学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.irle.2026.106323
Maxime Fajeau , Samuel Ligonnière , Alexandre Mayol
Local public investment is a key driver of infrastructure provision and long-term growth. Hence, understanding investment financing choice is paramount. Unlike central governments, most local authorities face a narrow choice between debt and tax funding, subject to fiscal rules and financial market access constraints. To analyze this choice, we transpose Williamson (1988)’s corporate finance framework, which views financing as a governance decision aimed at minimizing transaction costs rather than as market neutral or an agency conflict. In this adaptation to public finance, debt corresponds to rules-based, market governance, while tax funding represents hierarchical, discretionary governance. In stable environments, debt dominates; under instability, the ranking reverses. We test these propositions using France’s local public debt crisis that began in 2010, triggered by municipalities’ exposure to toxic structured loans. Using a panel of 35,000 municipalities (2000–2018) and a distance-based instrumental-variable strategy, we find that before the crisis, structured loans did not alter investment behavior, but after the crisis, exposed municipalities sharply curtailed investment and re-ranked their financing choices away from borrowing toward higher self-financing. These results highlight the governance nature of local financing decisions and extend Williamson’s corporate finance framework to public finance.
地方公共投资是基础设施供应和长期增长的关键驱动力。因此,了解投资融资选择是至关重要的。与中央政府不同,多数地方政府在债务和税收融资之间面临着狭窄的选择,受制于财政规则和金融市场准入限制。为了分析这种选择,我们转换了Williamson(1988)的公司融资框架,该框架将融资视为旨在使交易成本最小化的治理决策,而不是市场中立或代理冲突。在这种对公共财政的适应中,债务对应于基于规则的市场治理,而税收融资则代表分层的、自由裁量的治理。在稳定的环境中,债务占主导地位;在不稳定的情况下,排名相反。我们用法国2010年开始的地方公共债务危机来检验这些观点,这场危机是由市政当局对有毒结构性贷款的敞口引发的。通过对35000个城市(2000-2018年)的调查和基于距离的工具变量策略,我们发现,在危机之前,结构性贷款并没有改变投资行为,但在危机之后,有风险的城市大幅削减了投资,并将其融资选择从借贷转向更高的自筹资金。这些结果突出了地方融资决策的治理性质,并将威廉姆森的公司融资框架扩展到公共财政。
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引用次数: 0
Decoding discourse: Gendered heckling in German Bundestag debates (1949–2021) 话语解码:德国联邦议院辩论中的性别诘问(1949-2021)
IF 2.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2026.102814
Teresa Hailer-Röthel
This paper investigates the gendered dynamics of parliamentary interruptions in the German Bundestag across 19 legislative periods (1949–2021). Motivated by anecdotal and journalistic reports of sexist heckling, the study examines whether female politicians face more frequent interruptions and, if so, under which conditions. Using a newly constructed dyadic dataset that links over 200,000 interruptions to individual speeches, the analysis explores how gender, ideology, and institutional position shape patterns of adversarial behavior. The findings reveal that in earlier decades, female MPs were not primarily interrupted by men, while since the late 1980s such a gendered pattern has become observable. In addition, heckling of female MPs often originates from opposing ideological camps or parliamentary blocs. These results nuance existing theories of gender bias in political discourse by highlighting how ideological conflict and inter-gender competition shape communicative power in parliamentary settings.
本文研究了19个立法时期(1949-2021)德国联邦议院议会中断的性别动态。受到关于性别歧视的诘问的轶事和新闻报道的启发,这项研究调查了女性政治家是否面临更频繁的打断,如果是的话,是在什么情况下。使用一个新构建的双元数据集,该数据集将超过20万次中断与个人演讲联系起来,该分析探讨了性别、意识形态和制度地位如何塑造对抗行为的模式。调查结果显示,在最初的几十年里,女性议员的工作并不主要被男性打断,而自20世纪80年代末以来,这种性别模式已经变得明显。此外,对女议员的诘难往往来自对立的意识形态阵营或议会集团。这些结果通过强调意识形态冲突和性别间竞争如何塑造议会环境中的沟通能力,使政治话语中性别偏见的现有理论有了细微差别。
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引用次数: 0
Green jobs and green economic development in Kigali's construction value chain: Evidence from a firm survey 基加利建筑业价值链中的绿色就业和绿色经济发展:来自公司调查的证据
IF 6.3 2区 经济学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108944
Babette Never , Alexander Stoecker , Aime Tsinda , Eric Mujanama , Roger Mugisha
Green, circular buildings are crucial for climate change mitigation and resource efficiency, yet their employment impact in Sub-Saharan Africa remains unclear. This paper explores green job potential in Kigali, Rwanda—an urbanizing city with strong policy commitments and urgent housing needs. Employing a sequential mixed-methods design, we conducted 33 expert interviews and surveyed 546 firms across five construction value chain segments. We find that (1) many green jobs already exist, with 5.1% highly green and about 58% partly green based on practices performed; (2) green and circular practices are emerging through both policy support and grassroots innovation, (3) greening is positively, significantly correlated with employment growth for highly green firms, and (4) greening is significantly associated with improved job quality for all firms. Targeted support for firms in critical greening phases could boost job creation and quality. A mix of interventions is required to tackle cost competitiveness, skills and attitudes.
绿色圆形建筑对于减缓气候变化和提高资源效率至关重要,但它们对撒哈拉以南非洲的就业影响尚不清楚。本文探讨了卢旺达基加利的绿色就业潜力。基加利是一个正在城市化的城市,有着强有力的政策承诺和迫切的住房需求。采用顺序混合方法设计,我们进行了33次专家访谈,并调查了五个建筑价值链细分市场的546家公司。我们发现(1)许多绿色工作已经存在,其中5.1%的工作是高度绿色的,58%的工作是部分绿色的;(2)绿色和循环实践通过政策支持和基层创新出现;(3)对于高度绿色的企业,绿化与就业增长显著正相关;(4)对于所有企业,绿化与工作质量的提高显著相关。对处于关键绿色阶段的企业提供有针对性的支持可以促进创造就业机会和提高质量。需要采取多种干预措施来解决成本竞争力、技能和态度问题。
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引用次数: 0
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