Pub Date : 2023-12-05DOI: 10.1101/2023.08.27.554991
Joon-Hyun Song, Liliana M Dávalos, Thomas MacCarthy, Mehdi Damaghi
Evolvability is an emergent hallmark of cancer that depends on intra-tumor heterogeneity and, ultimately, genetic variation. Mutations generated by APOBEC3 cytidine deaminases can contribute to genetic variation and the consequences of APOBEC activation differ depending on the stage of cancer, with the most significant impact observed during the early stages. However, how APOBEC activity shapes evolutionary patterns of genes in the host genome and differential impacts on cancer-associated and non-cancer genes remain unclear. Analyzing over 40,000 human protein-coding transcripts, we identified distinct distribution patterns of APOBEC3A/B TC motifs between cancer-related genes and controls, suggesting unique associations with cancer. Studying a bat species with many more APOBEC3 genes, we found diverse motif patterns in orthologs of cancer genes compared to controls, similar to humans and suggesting APOBEC evolution to reduce impacts on the genome rather than the converse. Simulations confirmed that APOBEC-induced heterogeneity enhances cancer evolution, shaping clonal dynamics through bimodal introduction of mutations in certain classes of genes. Our results suggest that a major consequence of the bimodal distribution of APOBEC affects greater cancer heterogeneity.
{"title":"Evolvability of cancer-associated genes under APOBEC3A/B selection.","authors":"Joon-Hyun Song, Liliana M Dávalos, Thomas MacCarthy, Mehdi Damaghi","doi":"10.1101/2023.08.27.554991","DOIUrl":"10.1101/2023.08.27.554991","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Evolvability is an emergent hallmark of cancer that depends on intra-tumor heterogeneity and, ultimately, genetic variation. Mutations generated by APOBEC3 cytidine deaminases can contribute to genetic variation and the consequences of APOBEC activation differ depending on the stage of cancer, with the most significant impact observed during the early stages. However, how APOBEC activity shapes evolutionary patterns of genes in the host genome and differential impacts on cancer-associated and non-cancer genes remain unclear. Analyzing over 40,000 human protein-coding transcripts, we identified distinct distribution patterns of APOBEC3A/B TC motifs between cancer-related genes and controls, suggesting unique associations with cancer. Studying a bat species with many more APOBEC3 genes, we found diverse motif patterns in orthologs of cancer genes compared to controls, similar to humans and suggesting APOBEC evolution to reduce impacts on the genome rather than the converse. Simulations confirmed that APOBEC-induced heterogeneity enhances cancer evolution, shaping clonal dynamics through bimodal introduction of mutations in certain classes of genes. Our results suggest that a major consequence of the bimodal distribution of APOBEC affects greater cancer heterogeneity.</p>","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10723265/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90589327","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The objective of this study is to analyze the effects of the set of measures adopted by the labor reform of 2017 on the generation of employment and income in Brazil. The study is based on the literature that highlights the importance of structural change in employment as a key element for economic growth and development, emphasizing that in Brazil, there is still a view that the labor market should take on more flexible work relationships to advance in the improvement of jobs, levels of employment, productivity and income. Subsequently, the article summarizes and critically comments on the main measures of the labor law reforms adopted in post-2017 Brazil. Finally, it presents an analysis of the behavior of the labor market in Brazil between 2012 and 2022 based on data from the PNADC/IBGE survey. The main results of the survey confirm that the labor reform of 2017 has not shown advances in labor market indicators or in the main macroeconomic aggregates of the country. In contrast, the data suggest deterioration in the indicators of employment, income and allocation of workers in occupations with low productivity and income characteristics.
{"title":"Structural change, labor market and employment in brazil after the 2017 labor market reform","authors":"E. Araujo, Rinaldo Galete, C. Caldarelli","doi":"10.2298/pan2304627a","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan2304627a","url":null,"abstract":"The objective of this study is to analyze the effects of the set of measures adopted by the labor reform of 2017 on the generation of employment and income in Brazil. The study is based on the literature that highlights the importance of structural change in employment as a key element for economic growth and development, emphasizing that in Brazil, there is still a view that the labor market should take on more flexible work relationships to advance in the improvement of jobs, levels of employment, productivity and income. Subsequently, the article summarizes and critically comments on the main measures of the labor law reforms adopted in post-2017 Brazil. Finally, it presents an analysis of the behavior of the labor market in Brazil between 2012 and 2022 based on data from the PNADC/IBGE survey. The main results of the survey confirm that the labor reform of 2017 has not shown advances in labor market indicators or in the main macroeconomic aggregates of the country. In contrast, the data suggest deterioration in the indicators of employment, income and allocation of workers in occupations with low productivity and income characteristics.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68608532","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study aimed to analyze the factors affecting the size of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) from a multinational perspective. Empirical analyses were conducted through econometric modeling, and the data of the 17 countries from 2003 to 2019 were used. The data was obtained from the World Bank and OECD database. We used advanced panel data estimation techniques (CUP-FM and CUP-BC) to obtain long-run coefficients. GDP per Capita, general government final consumption expenditure, adult education at tertiary level, and Gini index growth declined grants by private agencies and NGOs? contribution to GDP (GinGDP) initially but after a threshold level, GinGDP increased with growth at later stages of these variables. Urban population growth, employment, and foreign population have reducing effect on the size of NGOs. The size of NGOs has bidirectional causality relationship between GDP per capita, adult population at tertiary education level, employment to population ratio, and Gini index; and unidirectional causality between urban population growth, general government final consumption expenditure, and foreign population.
{"title":"An emprical study to investigate the size of non-governmental organizations in OECD countries","authors":"A. Tosun, A. Yilmaz","doi":"10.2298/pan211130011t","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan211130011t","url":null,"abstract":"This study aimed to analyze the factors affecting the size of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) from a multinational perspective. Empirical analyses were conducted through econometric modeling, and the data of the 17 countries from 2003 to 2019 were used. The data was obtained from the World Bank and OECD database. We used advanced panel data estimation techniques (CUP-FM and CUP-BC) to obtain long-run coefficients. GDP per Capita, general government final consumption expenditure, adult education at tertiary level, and Gini index growth declined grants by private agencies and NGOs? contribution to GDP (GinGDP) initially but after a threshold level, GinGDP increased with growth at later stages of these variables. Urban population growth, employment, and foreign population have reducing effect on the size of NGOs. The size of NGOs has bidirectional causality relationship between GDP per capita, adult population at tertiary education level, employment to population ratio, and Gini index; and unidirectional causality between urban population growth, general government final consumption expenditure, and foreign population.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68607119","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
J. Oreiro, L. Gabriel, Stefan D’Amato, Kalinka da Silva
The main objective of this work is to analyze the effects of Brazilian Labor Market Reform (BLMR) in the short run and, based on identified changes in the economy in recent decades, to verify how these changes have affected the labor market. Four methods were used in a complementary way: (i) employment quality index; (ii) panel data estimation method; (iii) synthetic control method and (iv) microdata analysis. We observed that there was no considerable increase in the quality of employment and formal employment and the rate of unemployment did not decrease after the implementation of these changes. Part of this dynamic is cyclical and related to exogenous shocks, such as the COVID pandemic on the Brazilian economy. Finally, according to econometric analysis, the rate of unemployment in Brazil is more responsive to investment rates and the business environment than to unit labor cost and changes in labor legislation.
{"title":"Labour market reforms in brazil (2017-2021): An analysis of the effects of recent flexibilization on labor market legislation","authors":"J. Oreiro, L. Gabriel, Stefan D’Amato, Kalinka da Silva","doi":"10.2298/pan2304601o","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan2304601o","url":null,"abstract":"The main objective of this work is to analyze the effects of Brazilian Labor Market Reform (BLMR) in the short run and, based on identified changes in the economy in recent decades, to verify how these changes have affected the labor market. Four methods were used in a complementary way: (i) employment quality index; (ii) panel data estimation method; (iii) synthetic control method and (iv) microdata analysis. We observed that there was no considerable increase in the quality of employment and formal employment and the rate of unemployment did not decrease after the implementation of these changes. Part of this dynamic is cyclical and related to exogenous shocks, such as the COVID pandemic on the Brazilian economy. Finally, according to econometric analysis, the rate of unemployment in Brazil is more responsive to investment rates and the business environment than to unit labor cost and changes in labor legislation.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68608847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper discusses the role played by the recent Brazilian Labour Reform (BLR) in conditioning the level and the rate of growth of employment, value added and productivity in the Brazilian economy from 2017. Our main findings are that after BLR, the share of informal employment, value added and productivity increased, as well as those shares in low productivity sectors. Furthermore, we show that the employment created in low-productivity sectors (formal and informal) were moved to high-productivity sectors in the years after the implementation of the 2017 labour reform, the aggregate levels of value added and productivity would have been much higher than otherwise.
{"title":"The impacts of the Brazilian Labour Reform on employment, output, and labour productivity","authors":"C. Amitrano, Alanna de Oliveira, Gabriel Squeff","doi":"10.2298/pan2304647a","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan2304647a","url":null,"abstract":"This paper discusses the role played by the recent Brazilian Labour Reform (BLR) in conditioning the level and the rate of growth of employment, value added and productivity in the Brazilian economy from 2017. Our main findings are that after BLR, the share of informal employment, value added and productivity increased, as well as those shares in low productivity sectors. Furthermore, we show that the employment created in low-productivity sectors (formal and informal) were moved to high-productivity sectors in the years after the implementation of the 2017 labour reform, the aggregate levels of value added and productivity would have been much higher than otherwise.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68608594","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines, from the perspective of Post-Keynesian economics, the effects of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on the employment rate in 18 post-transitional European countries from 1995 to 2021. Using a two-step system Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) panel data estimator, we test the hypothesis that the employment impact of investment depends on the interaction of FDI and domestic investment in terms of crowding-in and crowding-out relationships, assuming that this relationship is sensitive to the sectoral distribution of FDI stock. Our findings suggest that the reallocation of FDI inflows from the manufacturing sector to the less labour intensive financial and information and communication technology (ICT) sectors tends to reduce the employment effect of FDI both directly and indirectly by reducing the magnitude of the crowding- in effect of FDI on domestic investment. The outcome of our study is of great interest to economic policy makers. If foreign investment displaces domestic investment and reduces employment in high value-added sectors, policies intended to attract foreign capital could be challenged and undermined. Otherwise, if foreign and domestic investment in sectors with high added value are complementary, it justifies policies aimed at attracting foreign investment.
{"title":"Sectoral distribution of FDI and employment: Evidence from post- transitional European countries","authors":"Kosta Josifidis, Novica Supic","doi":"10.2298/pan2304573j","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan2304573j","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines, from the perspective of Post-Keynesian economics, the effects of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on the employment rate in 18 post-transitional European countries from 1995 to 2021. Using a two-step system Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) panel data estimator, we test the hypothesis that the employment impact of investment depends on the interaction of FDI and domestic investment in terms of crowding-in and crowding-out relationships, assuming that this relationship is sensitive to the sectoral distribution of FDI stock. Our findings suggest that the reallocation of FDI inflows from the manufacturing sector to the less labour intensive financial and information and communication technology (ICT) sectors tends to reduce the employment effect of FDI both directly and indirectly by reducing the magnitude of the crowding- in effect of FDI on domestic investment. The outcome of our study is of great interest to economic policy makers. If foreign investment displaces domestic investment and reduces employment in high value-added sectors, policies intended to attract foreign capital could be challenged and undermined. Otherwise, if foreign and domestic investment in sectors with high added value are complementary, it justifies policies aimed at attracting foreign investment.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68608632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Credit ratings have become open to dispute in recent years regarding their objectivity, timeliness, and the criteria considered in the assignment process, which resulted in an inclination toward other methods to measure credit risk. This study applies contingent claims analysis, a novel risk analysis technique, in Turkey to assess their credit risk appropriately and investigate the determinants of the sovereign credit risk correctly. While the technique has been applied in Turkey before, the study contributes to the results of the preceding literature by applying the technique at a wider spectrum in terms of regarding the assessed risk indicators, time horizon considered, diagnosis tests, and sensitivity analyses. Risk indicators are calculated by applying this method to Turkey between July 2009 and December 2020. Results highlight that the movements in the risk indicators reflect the market. To ensure robustness, the Spearman rank-order correlations of the model risk measures with three market indicators are calculated, and sensitivity analyses are done. The credit default swaps are found to be correlated with all of the model risk measures, while the distance to distress is correlated with sovereign bond spreads, affirming model robustness. Analysis results highlight that among the variables for which sensitivities are assessed, changes occurring in the volatility of local currency liabilities heavily impact the risk indicators. Hence, the contingent claims approach model is robust in considering the correlations of model risk indicators with actual market data. Therefore, the model can be used in policymaking for realistic results.
{"title":"Contingent claims analysis as a credit risk metric: Evidence from Turkey","authors":"Şaban Çelik, Burcu Baskurt","doi":"10.2298/pan220516019c","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan220516019c","url":null,"abstract":"Credit ratings have become open to dispute in recent years regarding their objectivity, timeliness, and the criteria considered in the assignment process, which resulted in an inclination toward other methods to measure credit risk. This study applies contingent claims analysis, a novel risk analysis technique, in Turkey to assess their credit risk appropriately and investigate the determinants of the sovereign credit risk correctly. While the technique has been applied in Turkey before, the study contributes to the results of the preceding literature by applying the technique at a wider spectrum in terms of regarding the assessed risk indicators, time horizon considered, diagnosis tests, and sensitivity analyses. Risk indicators are calculated by applying this method to Turkey between July 2009 and December 2020. Results highlight that the movements in the risk indicators reflect the market. To ensure robustness, the Spearman rank-order correlations of the model risk measures with three market indicators are calculated, and sensitivity analyses are done. The credit default swaps are found to be correlated with all of the model risk measures, while the distance to distress is correlated with sovereign bond spreads, affirming model robustness. Analysis results highlight that among the variables for which sensitivities are assessed, changes occurring in the volatility of local currency liabilities heavily impact the risk indicators. Hence, the contingent claims approach model is robust in considering the correlations of model risk indicators with actual market data. Therefore, the model can be used in policymaking for realistic results.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"114 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136206862","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study compares the short- and long-term relationships between house prices and bank credit in developed and Emerging Market Economies. This fact is an essential issue because most financing is facilitated by bank credit. Using quarterly data from 22 developed and six Emerging Market Economies and the panel autoregressive distributed lag model method, this study found that real house prices are the prominent factor of bank credit. Moreover, the magnitude of house prices and gross domestic product relationship with domestic bank credit is considerably greater in Emerging Market Economies than in developed nations. Meanwhile, the foreign interest rate on bank credit is nearly four times greater in Emerging Market Economies. Further, the exchange rate-credit relationship is positive for developed countries, whereas negative for Emerging Market Economies. Therefore, authorities maintaining financial stability must pay close attention to real house price dynamics. Moreover, Emerging Market Economies must also consider the exchange rate and foreign interest rates in managing credit growth.
{"title":"The short- and long-run relationship between house prices and bank credit in developed and emerging market economies: A comparative study","authors":"T. Dawood","doi":"10.2298/pan181004012d","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan181004012d","url":null,"abstract":"This study compares the short- and long-term relationships between house prices and bank credit in developed and Emerging Market Economies. This fact is an essential issue because most financing is facilitated by bank credit. Using quarterly data from 22 developed and six Emerging Market Economies and the panel autoregressive distributed lag model method, this study found that real house prices are the prominent factor of bank credit. Moreover, the magnitude of house prices and gross domestic product relationship with domestic bank credit is considerably greater in Emerging Market Economies than in developed nations. Meanwhile, the foreign interest rate on bank credit is nearly four times greater in Emerging Market Economies. Further, the exchange rate-credit relationship is positive for developed countries, whereas negative for Emerging Market Economies. Therefore, authorities maintaining financial stability must pay close attention to real house price dynamics. Moreover, Emerging Market Economies must also consider the exchange rate and foreign interest rates in managing credit growth.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68605317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Post World War II, Greece was enjoying, by and large, significant economic growth that was only slightly lower than that of other Western European nations. However, immediately after the financial crisis of 2007-08, the country faced a sovereign debt crisis. This continuing multifaceted crisis reached the populace as a series of restrictive measures and sudden reforms (what Galbraith, 2016, labels ?economic policy as moral abomination?), which resulted in a very long recession, high unemployment, massive inequalities and marginalization, increased social exclusion, and huge migration of thousands of well-educated Greeks. Within such economic development context, this contribution provides an overview of Greece?s past economic development efforts and challenges (Section 2); discusses important notions of a highly interventionist developmental state framework with ?Greek characteristics? as its main focus (Section 3); and offers developmental state-based policy implications, which are deemed necessary for the revival and global repositioning of Greek industrial sectors of high potential and achievability (Section 4). Summary and conclusions end the article.
{"title":"A proper developmental state framework for Greece","authors":"P. Arestis, N. Karagiannis","doi":"10.2298/pan220511002a","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan220511002a","url":null,"abstract":"Post World War II, Greece was enjoying, by and large, significant economic growth that was only slightly lower than that of other Western European nations. However, immediately after the financial crisis of 2007-08, the country faced a sovereign debt crisis. This continuing multifaceted crisis reached the populace as a series of restrictive measures and sudden reforms (what Galbraith, 2016, labels ?economic policy as moral abomination?), which resulted in a very long recession, high unemployment, massive inequalities and marginalization, increased social exclusion, and huge migration of thousands of well-educated Greeks. Within such economic development context, this contribution provides an overview of Greece?s past economic development efforts and challenges (Section 2); discusses important notions of a highly interventionist developmental state framework with ?Greek characteristics? as its main focus (Section 3); and offers developmental state-based policy implications, which are deemed necessary for the revival and global repositioning of Greek industrial sectors of high potential and achievability (Section 4). Summary and conclusions end the article.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68607864","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study examines the asymmetric effects of third-country exchange rate volatility on Turkish-German commodity trade. We analyzed annual time-series data spanning 1980-2022 for 79 (93) Turkish export (import) industries. The ARDL model found that third-country volatility, using the lira-dollar, had a significant short-term symmetric effect on 59 (67) Turkish export (import) industries. The NARDL model found that third-country volatility had a short-run asymmetric effect on trade volumes in more than half of the Turkish export and import industries. However, the short-run asymmetric effects turned into long-run asymmetric effects in about 50 percent of the industries. The results establish that nonlinear models lead to more significant short-run and long-run effects. The empirical evidence shows that the asymmetric assumption alone is insufficient, and third-country volatility should also be considered. The results suggest that all traders should consider how policy changes in a third-country may affect cross-country trade when designing their trade policies in a diversified trade environment.
{"title":"The asymmetric effects of third-country exchange rate volatility on Turkish-German commodity trade","authors":"Waqar Khalid, Irfan Civcir, Hüseyin Özdeşer","doi":"10.2298/pan220624015k","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan220624015k","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the asymmetric effects of third-country exchange rate volatility on Turkish-German commodity trade. We analyzed annual time-series data spanning 1980-2022 for 79 (93) Turkish export (import) industries. The ARDL model found that third-country volatility, using the lira-dollar, had a significant short-term symmetric effect on 59 (67) Turkish export (import) industries. The NARDL model found that third-country volatility had a short-run asymmetric effect on trade volumes in more than half of the Turkish export and import industries. However, the short-run asymmetric effects turned into long-run asymmetric effects in about 50 percent of the industries. The results establish that nonlinear models lead to more significant short-run and long-run effects. The empirical evidence shows that the asymmetric assumption alone is insufficient, and third-country volatility should also be considered. The results suggest that all traders should consider how policy changes in a third-country may affect cross-country trade when designing their trade policies in a diversified trade environment.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68607949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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