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Are the stylized features of stock returns the same in market downturns and upturns? 股票收益的风格化特征在市场下跌和上涨时是相同的吗?
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2026.101695
Bowen Cheng , Wanling Huang , Cathy Ning , Dinghai Xu
This study investigates key features of stock returns – including the leverage effect, contemporaneous leverage effect, volatility clustering, and feedback effect – using a vine copula framework. Unlike traditional copula models, our approach enables the joint examination of these features simultaneously, particularly under extreme market conditions when they are most critical for risk management. Based on high-frequency data from major global stock markets and large-cap U.S. firms, we find strong evidence of volatility clustering, characterized by nonlinearity and marked asymmetry: the clusters of high volatility occur more frequently than those of low volatility, with the effect more pronounced for indices than for individual firms. We also identify significant asymmetric leverage and contemporaneous leverage effects, both of which occur only at market downturn. At extremes, the contemporaneous leverage effect is slightly stronger than the leverage effect, suggesting both immediate and persistent volatility responses to adverse news. Moreover, these stylized features intensified during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Our Value at Risk (VaR) analysis and backtesting further demonstrate the superior performance of the vine copula model relative to linear dependence models and pair copula alternatives. These findings provide important insights for enhancing risk management practices and improving option pricing.
本文采用藤copula框架研究股票收益的关键特征,包括杠杆效应、同期杠杆效应、波动聚类和反馈效应。与传统的联结模型不同,我们的方法可以同时对这些特征进行联合检查,特别是在极端市场条件下,当它们对风险管理最关键的时候。基于来自全球主要股票市场和美国大盘股公司的高频数据,我们发现了波动率聚类的有力证据,其特征是非线性和明显的不对称:高波动率的聚类比低波动率的聚类发生得更频繁,对指数的影响比对单个公司的影响更明显。我们还发现了显著的不对称杠杆和同期杠杆效应,这两种效应都只发生在市场低迷时期。在极端情况下,同期杠杆效应略强于杠杆效应,表明对不利消息的即时和持续波动都有反应。此外,在2008年金融危机和2019冠状病毒病大流行期间,这些程式化特征进一步加剧。我们的风险值(VaR)分析和回溯测试进一步证明了藤联结模型相对于线性依赖模型和对联结模型的优越性。这些发现为加强风险管理实践和改进期权定价提供了重要的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Firm location and the value-growth premium 公司位置和价值增长溢价
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2026.101690
Brent W. Ambrose , Yifan Chen , Timothy T. Simin
We investigate the value-growth premium puzzle by merging insights from urban economics and finance that relate firm location to its stock performance. The value-growth premium in locations with high historical house price appreciation is 3.6% per year larger than the premium in areas that experienced little house price appreciation. The results support investment-based models explaining the value premium; moreover, we find the house price channel reduces returns of growth firms rather than increasing returns of value firms. House price appreciation remains significant after controlling for common explanations of the premium.
我们通过合并城市经济学和金融学的见解来研究价值增长溢价之谜,这些见解将公司所在地与其股票表现联系起来。历史房价涨幅高的地区的价值增长溢价每年比房价涨幅小的地区的价值增长溢价高出3.6%。研究结果支持基于投资的模型来解释价值溢价;此外,我们发现房价通道降低了成长型公司的回报,而不是增加了价值型公司的回报。在控制了常见的溢价解释后,房价的升值幅度仍然很大。
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引用次数: 0
Positivity and long-lasting momentum 积极和持久的动力
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2026.101694
Jingjing Chen , George J. Jiang , Chenye Liu , Dongming Zhu
We propose a simple momentum indicator positivity, defined as the percentage of days with non-negative returns, and show that it has a strong predictive power for stock returns over long horizons up to five years. The return-predictive power outlasts other conventional momentum indicators, including past stock returns and stock return consistency. We show that winners identified by positivity are young small-medium value firms, with relatively low sales growth but high earnings growth and robust fundamentals. Moreover, we show that in contrast to volatile “glamorous” growth stocks, these steady value stocks receive less attention of short-term speculative and noise traders and have modest valuation. Finally, we show that the long-lasting momentum of high positivity stocks is justified by persistent superior fundamental performance.
我们提出了一个简单的动量指标positive,定义为非负收益的天数百分比,并表明它对长达五年的长期股票收益具有很强的预测能力。收益预测能力比其他传统动量指标(包括过去股票收益和股票收益一致性)持续时间更长。我们发现,乐观的赢家是年轻的中小型价值公司,它们的销售增长相对较低,但盈利增长较高,基本面强劲。此外,我们表明,与波动的“迷人”成长股相比,这些稳定的价值股受到短期投机和噪音交易者的关注较少,估值适中。最后,我们表明,高正性股票的持久势头是由持续优异的基本面表现证明的。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring daily systemic risk with intraday data: Evidence from foreign exchange market 用日内数据衡量每日系统性风险:来自外汇市场的证据
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2026.101693
Yi Zhou , Wenjing Xia , Wuyi Ye
This study introduces a method for computing daily systemic risk measures using high-frequency data, specifically realized conditional value-at-risk (RCoVaR) and realized marginal expected shortfall (RMES). RCoVaR and RMES are empirical estimators derived from scaling high-frequency returns, offering benefits such as model-independence and adaptability to diverse datasets. To mitigate market microstructure noise (MMN) inherent in high-frequency data, we employ overlapping and subsampling approaches in the estimation of RCoVaR and RMES. Empirical analysis focuses on systemic risk within the foreign exchange market. The results indicate that noise-treated RCoVaR and RMES serve as effective alternatives for daily systemic risk estimation. These techniques also enhance out-of-sample predictive accuracy when employed as predictors within systemic risk forecasting frameworks.
本研究引入了一种利用高频数据计算每日系统性风险度量的方法,特别是已实现条件风险值(RCoVaR)和已实现边际预期缺口(RMES)。RCoVaR和RMES是通过缩放高频回报得出的经验估计,具有模型独立性和对不同数据集的适应性等优点。为了减轻高频数据中固有的市场微观结构噪声(MMN),我们在估计RCoVaR和RMES时采用了重叠和子抽样方法。实证分析的重点是外汇市场的系统性风险。结果表明,噪声处理的RCoVaR和RMES是日常系统风险评估的有效替代方案。在系统风险预测框架中,这些技术也可以提高样本外预测的准确性。
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引用次数: 0
Can mutual fund “stars” really pick stocks? New evidence from a wild bootstrap analysis 共同基金“明星”真的能选股吗?新的证据来自一个疯狂的自举分析
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101673
Ulrich Hounyo , Jiahao Lin
This paper identifies the issue of “duplicate observations” in existing methods for analyzing mutual fund performance and proposes a solution using a novel wild bootstrap-based approach. Our proposed method preserves various characteristics of mutual fund databases, including entry/exit points for each fund (i.e., missing data) and cross-sectional information. We show that our proposed bootstrap tests have a near-optimal size and exhibit greater power compared to widely used standard bootstrap methods for evaluating mutual fund performance. Additionally, we present a new approach to picking the top-performing mutual funds. Our empirical results indicate that a measurable fraction of funds outperform the market.
本文确定了现有共同基金绩效分析方法中的“重复观察”问题,并使用一种新颖的基于野生引导的方法提出了解决方案。我们提出的方法保留了共同基金数据库的各种特征,包括每个基金的进入/退出点(即缺失数据)和横截面信息。我们表明,与广泛使用的评估共同基金绩效的标准自举方法相比,我们提出的自举测试具有接近最优的规模,并且表现出更大的能力。此外,我们提出了一种选择表现最好的共同基金的新方法。我们的实证结果表明,相当一部分基金的表现优于市场。
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引用次数: 0
Information salience, investor attention, and stock price crash risk 信息显著性、投资者关注和股价崩盘风险
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101670
Zhenshan Chen , Zhibing Li , Jie Liu , Xiaoyu Liu
We find that investor attention significantly increases stock price crash risk. To identify the causal effect, we employ daily repeated quasi-natural experiments where the difference of investor attention is not driven by stock fundamentals, but rather exogenous price rounding issue. This positive effect is more pronounced among firms with higher daily abnormal Baidu search index and higher abnormal small fund inflows ratio, but is mitigated for firms with more sophisticated investors, state-owned enterprise, and firms with relaxation of short-sale constraints. Additionally, we provide supporting evidence that information asymmetry triggered by noise attention serves as a channel through which investor attention amplifies stock price crash risk. Finally, we provide additional evidence illustrating the generalizability of our findings.
我们发现,投资者的关注显著增加了股价崩盘的风险。为了确定因果关系,我们采用每日重复的准自然实验,其中投资者注意力的差异不是由股票基本面驱动的,而是由外生价格舍入问题驱动的。这种正向效应在日异常百度搜索指数较高和异常小基金流入比例较高的公司中更为明显,但在投资者经验更丰富的公司、国有企业和卖空限制放宽的公司中有所缓解。此外,我们还提供了支持性证据,证明由噪音关注引发的信息不对称是投资者关注放大股价崩盘风险的一个渠道。最后,我们提供了额外的证据来说明我们的发现的普遍性。
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引用次数: 0
A skew is a skill: Portfolio skewness of mutual fund holdings 偏倚是一种技巧:共同基金持有的投资组合偏倚
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2026.101687
Jo Drienko, Chao Gao, Yifei Liu
The return cross-section of a mutual fund’s portfolio holdings is positively skewed on average. At the fund level, portfolio skewness varies substantially across funds but remains highly persistent over time. We show that actively managed mutual funds with high portfolio skewness outperform funds with low skewness by 2.88% ($7.35 million) on an annualized basis. This association is not driven by past performance of portfolio holdings and becomes stronger amid more investment opportunities in the market. Further stock-level analyses reveal that shares added or tilted to by high skewness funds relative to low skewness funds significantly outperform their counterparts, pointing to stock selection skill as an explanation for both the portfolio skewness and its predictability of fund performance. In addition, funds with higher skewness attract higher inflows.
平均而言,共同基金投资组合的收益横截面是正向倾斜的。在基金层面,不同基金的投资组合偏度差异很大,但随着时间的推移,偏度仍然高度持续。我们发现,投资组合偏度高的积极管理共同基金的年化收益比偏度低的基金高出2.88%(735万美元)。这种联系不是由投资组合过去的表现所驱动的,而是在市场上更多的投资机会中变得更强。进一步的股票水平分析表明,相对于低偏度基金,高偏度基金增加或倾斜的股票表现明显优于其同行,这表明选股技巧可以解释投资组合偏度及其对基金业绩的可预测性。此外,偏度越大的基金吸引的资金流入也越多。
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引用次数: 0
Global standard and bank liquidity creation: A case study of Basel III liquidity regulation 全球标准与银行流动性创造:巴塞尔协议III流动性监管的案例研究
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101684
Yong Kyu Gam
Can the introduction of a new global standard directly impact the operations of domestically regulated banks before it is enacted through national legislation? This paper explores this question by examining the effects of the Basel III liquidity standard on liquidity creation by U.S. banks. Following the Basel Committee’s endorsement of this standard in December 2010, banks with low liquidity immediately reduced their asset-side liquidity creation by holding more liquid assets. At the same time, these banks increased their liability-side liquidity creation by attracting more deposits through higher deposit interest rates—well before the standard was implemented as domestic regulation in the U.S. These findings provide empirical evidence that enhanced global regulatory cooperation can cause newly established international standards to act as direct and immediate regulatory shocks to domestically regulated financial institutions, even in the absence of national legislation.
在通过国家立法颁布之前,引入新的全球标准是否会直接影响受国内监管的银行的运营?本文通过考察巴塞尔协议III流动性标准对美国银行流动性创造的影响来探讨这个问题。在2010年12月巴塞尔委员会认可这一标准后,流动性较低的银行立即通过持有更多的流动性资产来减少其资产侧的流动性创造。与此同时,这些银行通过提高存款利率来吸引更多的存款,从而增加了负债侧的流动性创造——早在该标准在美国作为国内监管实施之前。这些研究结果提供了经验证据,证明加强全球监管合作可以导致新建立的国际标准对国内监管的金融机构产生直接和即时的监管冲击。即使在没有国家立法的情况下。
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引用次数: 0
Deleveraging driven by profitability improvement: Evidence from China’s business tax to value-added tax transition 盈利能力提升驱动的去杠杆:来自中国营业税向增值税转型的证据
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101685
Zhenjie Qian , Dan Xi , Jia Xu , Lingrui Zhou
This study examines how tax policy reforms influence corporate capital structure by leveraging China’s business tax to value-added tax (B2V) Reform as a quasi-natural experiment. Using a staggered difference-in-differences design with listed firms’ data from 2009 to 2015, we find that firms affected by the B2V reform reduced leverage by an average of 1.8 percentage points compared to unaffected firms. Profitability gains—primarily from cost reductions made possible by value-added tax’s (VAT’s) deductibility—explain approximately 60% of this deleveraging effect. Heterogeneity analyses reveal that the effect is more pronounced among firms with stronger supply chain bargaining power, underscoring the importance of a firm’s ability to shift tax burdens in shaping financial decisions after the reform. Additional evidence shows declines in both dividend payouts and short-term liabilities during deleveraging, suggesting that the observed profitability improvements were temporary. Overall, these findings provide empirical support for the pecking order theory and underscore the broader capital structure implications of indirect tax reforms.
本研究以中国营改增(B2V)改革为准自然实验,考察税收政策改革对企业资本结构的影响。利用2009年至2015年上市公司数据的交错差异设计,我们发现受B2V改革影响的公司比未受影响的公司平均降低了1.8个百分点的杠杆率。盈利能力的提高——主要是由于增值税(VAT)的抵扣所带来的成本降低——解释了这种去杠杆化效应的大约60%。异质性分析显示,在供应链议价能力较强的企业中,这种影响更为明显,这强调了企业在改革后转移税负的能力在塑造财务决策方面的重要性。其他证据显示,在去杠杆化过程中,派息和短期负债都有所下降,这表明观察到的盈利能力改善是暂时的。总体而言,这些研究结果为啄食顺序理论提供了实证支持,并强调了间接税改革对资本结构的更广泛影响。
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引用次数: 0
Volatility and jumps in the Chinese Yuan using Gumbel distribution during the trade war and COVID-19 pandemic 在贸易战和COVID-19大流行期间,使用甘贝尔分布的人民币波动和跳跃
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101669
Chae-Deug Yi
This study investigates the dynamic structure of intraday volatility and jump behavior in the Chinese yuan and US dollar exchange market by employing a Gumbel-distribution-based threshold derived from extreme value theory. Using five-minute high-frequency data over 2,450 trading days, we construct a daily jump probability index and examine its responsiveness to major economic shocks, including the U.S.–China trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic. Regression and simulation analyses (5,000 replications) show that the Gumbel-based jump metric provides superior explanatory power in detecting large and irregular jumps. The Gumbel distribution offers a clear and theoretically grounded thresholding mechanism, making it particularly effective in identifying episodic volatility clusters during the 2010s. Tests by Lee and Hannig (2010) and Laurent and Shi (2020) also suggest that the Gumbel jump statistic is more appropriate for capturing the frequent and discontinuous jumps in foreign exchange volatility. Furthermore, after filtering for intraday periodicity, the estimated jump probabilities significantly decline, indicating the importance of periodicity adjustment. This study also confirms that jump probabilities were notably higher during the U.S.–China trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic than in the overall sample period. Sensitivity tests on volatility filtering and simulation parameters further demonstrate the robustness of the Gumbel-based jump distribution.
本文采用基于甘贝尔分布的极值阈值理论,研究了人民币和美元外汇市场的日内波动和跳涨行为的动态结构。利用2450个交易日的5分钟高频数据,我们构建了每日跳跃概率指数,并研究了其对重大经济冲击的反应,包括美中贸易战和COVID-19大流行。回归和模拟分析(5000次重复)表明,基于gumbel的跳跃度量在检测大的和不规则的跳跃方面提供了优越的解释力。Gumbel分布提供了一个清晰的、理论上有根据的阈值机制,使其在识别2010年代的偶发性波动簇方面特别有效。Lee和Hannig(2010)以及Laurent和Shi(2020)的检验也表明,冈贝尔跳跃统计量更适合捕捉外汇波动的频繁和不连续跳跃。此外,在对日内周期性进行过滤后,估计的跳跃概率显著下降,表明周期性调整的重要性。该研究还证实,在美中贸易战和新冠肺炎大流行期间,跳跃概率明显高于整个样本时期。对波动率滤波和仿真参数的敏感性测试进一步证明了基于gumbel的跳跃分布的鲁棒性。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Empirical Finance
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