Background: The occurrence of health shocks affects households economically in various ways. It most often leads to missed work, thus inducing a decrease in productivity and a loss of income. These effects are even more significant if the extent of absenteeism is high or if its duration is long.
Purpose: This study aims to analyse the effects of health shocks on the magnitude of absenteeism and to highlight the potential mitigating effect of health insurance on the magnitude of absenteeism among households affected by the shocks.
Methodology/approach: Absenteeism at work was measured here by the number of days lost due to health problems. Data from the Harmonised Survey on Household Living Conditions (EHCVM) 2019 were used for this purpose. To account for the endogeneity problem in this context, we use Two-Stage Least Square (2SLS) model to achieve our objectives.
Results: Our results suggest that health shocks significantly increase the magnitude of absenteeism from work by increasing the probability of a longer duration of absenteeism. Health insurance mitigates the magnitude of absenteeism by significantly reducing the probability of moving from short to long absenteeism by 3.27.
Conclusion: Health shocks have a significant effect on the magnitude of absenteeism. Given the role of health insurance in mitigating the effect of health shocks, this study highlights the need for an extension of health insurance to a greater number of people for a more significant effect.
{"title":"Effect of health shocks on the absenteeism magnitude at work in Togo: is health insurance a mitigating factor?","authors":"Yacobou Sanoussi, Ilessan Akom Dossou, Mawuli Couchoro","doi":"10.1186/s13561-024-00578-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s13561-024-00578-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The occurrence of health shocks affects households economically in various ways. It most often leads to missed work, thus inducing a decrease in productivity and a loss of income. These effects are even more significant if the extent of absenteeism is high or if its duration is long.</p><p><strong>Purpose: </strong>This study aims to analyse the effects of health shocks on the magnitude of absenteeism and to highlight the potential mitigating effect of health insurance on the magnitude of absenteeism among households affected by the shocks.</p><p><strong>Methodology/approach: </strong>Absenteeism at work was measured here by the number of days lost due to health problems. Data from the Harmonised Survey on Household Living Conditions (EHCVM) 2019 were used for this purpose. To account for the endogeneity problem in this context, we use Two-Stage Least Square (2SLS) model to achieve our objectives.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Our results suggest that health shocks significantly increase the magnitude of absenteeism from work by increasing the probability of a longer duration of absenteeism. Health insurance mitigates the magnitude of absenteeism by significantly reducing the probability of moving from short to long absenteeism by 3.27.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Health shocks have a significant effect on the magnitude of absenteeism. Given the role of health insurance in mitigating the effect of health shocks, this study highlights the need for an extension of health insurance to a greater number of people for a more significant effect.</p>","PeriodicalId":46936,"journal":{"name":"Health Economics Review","volume":"14 1","pages":"104"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142856069","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-19DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108102
Eleftheria G. Paschalidou, Nikolaos S. Thomaidis
This study investigates the dynamic connection between Spanish day-ahead electricity prices and various fundamental determinants, including average surface temperature, forecasted electricity demand, predicted renewable energy injection, natural gas futures prices and CO2 emission rights cost. Structural Dynamic Factor Models (SDFM) are employed to decompose each hourly price signal into systematic components linked to any of the fundamental indices mentioned above and unveil structural shocks moving the entire panel of variables. Empirical results indicate that Spanish day-ahead electricity prices have a strong fundamental basis; a great deal of their observed short- or long-run variations are explained by changes in temperature, load, renewable energy supply, natural gas and carbon permit cost.
{"title":"Risk factors in the formulation of day-ahead electricity prices: Evidence from the Spanish case","authors":"Eleftheria G. Paschalidou, Nikolaos S. Thomaidis","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108102","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108102","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates the dynamic connection between Spanish day-ahead electricity prices and various fundamental determinants, including average surface temperature, forecasted electricity demand, predicted renewable energy injection, natural gas futures prices and CO2 emission rights cost. Structural Dynamic Factor Models (SDFM) are employed to decompose each hourly price signal into systematic components linked to any of the fundamental indices mentioned above and unveil structural shocks moving the entire panel of variables. Empirical results indicate that Spanish day-ahead electricity prices have a strong fundamental basis; a great deal of their observed short- or long-run variations are explained by changes in temperature, load, renewable energy supply, natural gas and carbon permit cost.","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"40 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142873878","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-19DOI: 10.1177/00420980241293659
I-Ting Chuang, Qingqing Chen
This study empirically examines the adequacy of sidewalk widths in Auckland’s Central Business District in light of increasing active mobility and sustainable urban planning trends. Recognising the need to retrofit street spaces to prioritise pedestrians, we aim to determine whether current sidewalk dimensions meet the diverse requirements of users. We analysed average sidewalk widths and developed four mobility metrics – inflow and outflow travel distance, and density of visitors and locals – using a large-scale mobile location dataset comprising 113 million data points from 1.4 million users. These metrics, reflecting urban vibrancy and sidewalk use, were correlated with sidewalk widths to assess their adequacy. Furthermore, we applied cluster analysis to these mobility metrics, along with the diversity of Points of Interest, to categorise sidewalk segments, uncovering intricate usage patterns. Our findings indicate that sidewalks typically range from 2 to 5 m, catering to varied urban needs. Notably, we observed no direct correlation between sidewalk width and mobility patterns, but significant differences in inflow and outflow travel distances were evident, especially between key urban hubs and quiet residential neighbourhoods. Moreover, we identified seven distinct sidewalk categories, each reflecting unique qualities, suggesting that uniform widths do not define sidewalk utility or character. This highlights the need to rethink current capacity-focused sidewalk design, advocating for a nuanced approach that addresses the intricate demands of urban spaces. Our methodology offers flexibility and can be tailored to suit different urban contexts, providing a versatile tool for urban analysis and planning.
{"title":"Urban street dynamics: Assessing the relationship of sidewalk width and pedestrian activity in Auckland, New Zealand, based on mobile phone data","authors":"I-Ting Chuang, Qingqing Chen","doi":"10.1177/00420980241293659","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00420980241293659","url":null,"abstract":"This study empirically examines the adequacy of sidewalk widths in Auckland’s Central Business District in light of increasing active mobility and sustainable urban planning trends. Recognising the need to retrofit street spaces to prioritise pedestrians, we aim to determine whether current sidewalk dimensions meet the diverse requirements of users. We analysed average sidewalk widths and developed four mobility metrics – inflow and outflow travel distance, and density of visitors and locals – using a large-scale mobile location dataset comprising 113 million data points from 1.4 million users. These metrics, reflecting urban vibrancy and sidewalk use, were correlated with sidewalk widths to assess their adequacy. Furthermore, we applied cluster analysis to these mobility metrics, along with the diversity of Points of Interest, to categorise sidewalk segments, uncovering intricate usage patterns. Our findings indicate that sidewalks typically range from 2 to 5 m, catering to varied urban needs. Notably, we observed no direct correlation between sidewalk width and mobility patterns, but significant differences in inflow and outflow travel distances were evident, especially between key urban hubs and quiet residential neighbourhoods. Moreover, we identified seven distinct sidewalk categories, each reflecting unique qualities, suggesting that uniform widths do not define sidewalk utility or character. This highlights the need to rethink current capacity-focused sidewalk design, advocating for a nuanced approach that addresses the intricate demands of urban spaces. Our methodology offers flexibility and can be tailored to suit different urban contexts, providing a versatile tool for urban analysis and planning.","PeriodicalId":51350,"journal":{"name":"Urban Studies","volume":"41 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142869844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-19DOI: 10.1007/s10754-024-09388-x
Cristian Pardo, Jorge Sabat
This paper analyzes the impact of flat premiums on equity and efficiency within a regulated market. We examine the consequences of shifting from a risk-adjusted premium model to a flat premium system, particularly focusing on how this shift affects different income groups and market efficiency. Using a combination of theoretical modeling and empirical analysis, we find that flat premiums may lead to increased cross-subsidization among participants, with notable effects on both equity and efficiency. Our results suggest that while flat premiums simplify the regulatory framework, they also introduce trade-offs that policymakers must carefully consider.
{"title":"Equity and efficiency effects of flat premiums.","authors":"Cristian Pardo, Jorge Sabat","doi":"10.1007/s10754-024-09388-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10754-024-09388-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This paper analyzes the impact of flat premiums on equity and efficiency within a regulated market. We examine the consequences of shifting from a risk-adjusted premium model to a flat premium system, particularly focusing on how this shift affects different income groups and market efficiency. Using a combination of theoretical modeling and empirical analysis, we find that flat premiums may lead to increased cross-subsidization among participants, with notable effects on both equity and efficiency. Our results suggest that while flat premiums simplify the regulatory framework, they also introduce trade-offs that policymakers must carefully consider.</p>","PeriodicalId":44403,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Health Economics and Management","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142865513","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Lia R. Kelinsky-Jones, Kim L. Niewolny, Max O. Stephenson Jr.
<div> <section> <h3> Motivation</h3> <p>International development policy is increasingly a contested site of agricultural politics. Many civil society organizations actively engage with alternative frameworks including sustainability, sovereignty, and self-reliance to challenge the prevailing neoliberal construct of food systems. Recently, development policy actors have used the term “self-reliance” in international development policy discourse, but its meaning, purpose, and underlying political ideology vary. Understanding how development actors define self-reliance is critical for understanding whether the term is being used to maintain the neoliberal status quo or to support food systems change.</p> </section> <section> <h3> Purpose</h3> <p>In 2018 the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) released its “The Journey to Self-Reliance” policy framework. This article explores how USAID represented self-reliance by examining the vocabularies, discourses, and ideologies the agency drew upon to conceptualize self-reliance.</p> </section> <section> <h3> Approach and methods</h3> <p>We analysed a corpus of USAID policy documents published between 2018 and 2020, using critical discourse analysis (CDA), and triangulated CDA findings with corpus linguistics. We then presented our analysis to focus groups of US university scholar-practitioners funded by USAID who responded to the findings.</p> </section> <section> <h3> Findings</h3> <p>We found that USAID's construction of self-reliance simultaneously sought to reproduce neoliberal ideological outcomes while, at least formally, embracing localization in terms of community self-reliance. We also found that USAID placed market actors as active leaders and presented local governments in passive roles. Focus group respondents agreed on the importance of localization but differed as to the primacy USAID afforded market organizations.</p> </section> <section> <h3> Policy implications</h3> <p>We identified three major policy implications. First, the primacy of the neoliberal conception of self-reliance limits self-directed development among the targeted countries. Second, framing self-reliance as market driven is likely to deepen consolidated power in agricultural development. Third, at a global policy level, we observe a lack of solidarity with civil society organizations addressing agricultural development efforts, which seek greater representation in development policy deliberations.</p>
{"title":"“Magic concepts” and USAID: Framing food systems reform to support the status quo","authors":"Lia R. Kelinsky-Jones, Kim L. Niewolny, Max O. Stephenson Jr.","doi":"10.1111/dpr.12823","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/dpr.12823","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Motivation</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>International development policy is increasingly a contested site of agricultural politics. Many civil society organizations actively engage with alternative frameworks including sustainability, sovereignty, and self-reliance to challenge the prevailing neoliberal construct of food systems. Recently, development policy actors have used the term “self-reliance” in international development policy discourse, but its meaning, purpose, and underlying political ideology vary. Understanding how development actors define self-reliance is critical for understanding whether the term is being used to maintain the neoliberal status quo or to support food systems change.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Purpose</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>In 2018 the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) released its “The Journey to Self-Reliance” policy framework. This article explores how USAID represented self-reliance by examining the vocabularies, discourses, and ideologies the agency drew upon to conceptualize self-reliance.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Approach and methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We analysed a corpus of USAID policy documents published between 2018 and 2020, using critical discourse analysis (CDA), and triangulated CDA findings with corpus linguistics. We then presented our analysis to focus groups of US university scholar-practitioners funded by USAID who responded to the findings.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Findings</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We found that USAID's construction of self-reliance simultaneously sought to reproduce neoliberal ideological outcomes while, at least formally, embracing localization in terms of community self-reliance. We also found that USAID placed market actors as active leaders and presented local governments in passive roles. Focus group respondents agreed on the importance of localization but differed as to the primacy USAID afforded market organizations.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Policy implications</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We identified three major policy implications. First, the primacy of the neoliberal conception of self-reliance limits self-directed development among the targeted countries. Second, framing self-reliance as market driven is likely to deepen consolidated power in agricultural development. Third, at a global policy level, we observe a lack of solidarity with civil society organizations addressing agricultural development efforts, which seek greater representation in development policy deliberations.</p>\u0000 ","PeriodicalId":51478,"journal":{"name":"Development Policy Review","volume":"43 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/dpr.12823","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142868859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-19DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103987
Caroline Flammer, Thomas Giroux, Geoffrey M. Heal
We study biodiversity finance—the use of private capital to finance biodiversity conservation and restoration—which is a new practice in sustainable finance. First, we provide a conceptual framework that lays out how biodiversity can be financed by pure private capital and blended financing structures. In the latter, private capital is blended with public or philanthropic capital, whose aim is to de-risk private capital investments. The main element underlying both types of financing is the “monetization” of biodiversity, that is, using investments in biodiversity to generate a financial return for private investors. Second, we provide empirical evidence using deal-level data from a leading biodiversity finance institution. Our findings are consistent with a three-dimensional efficient frontier (return, risk, and biodiversity impact)—deals with a favorable risk-return profile tend to be financed by pure private capital, whereas for other deals the biodiversity impact needs to be sufficiently large for blended finance to be used. Overall, our results suggest that blended finance is an important tool for improving the risk-return profile of these projects, thereby increasing their appeal to private investors and crowding in private capital. Finally, our results suggest that private capital is unlikely to substitute for effective public policies in addressing the biodiversity crisis.
{"title":"Biodiversity finance","authors":"Caroline Flammer, Thomas Giroux, Geoffrey M. Heal","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103987","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103987","url":null,"abstract":"We study biodiversity finance—the use of private capital to finance biodiversity conservation and restoration—which is a new practice in sustainable finance. First, we provide a conceptual framework that lays out how biodiversity can be financed by pure private capital and blended financing structures. In the latter, private capital is blended with public or philanthropic capital, whose aim is to de-risk private capital investments. The main element underlying both types of financing is the “monetization” of biodiversity, that is, using investments in biodiversity to generate a financial return for private investors. Second, we provide empirical evidence using deal-level data from a leading biodiversity finance institution. Our findings are consistent with a three-dimensional efficient frontier (return, risk, and biodiversity impact)—deals with a favorable risk-return profile tend to be financed by pure private capital, whereas for other deals the biodiversity impact needs to be sufficiently large for blended finance to be used. Overall, our results suggest that blended finance is an important tool for improving the risk-return profile of these projects, thereby increasing their appeal to private investors and crowding in private capital. Finally, our results suggest that private capital is unlikely to substitute for effective public policies in addressing the biodiversity crisis.","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"32 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142873917","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-19DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103869
Juan D. Díaz, Erwin Hansen
In July 2020, the Chilean Congress made an unexpected modification to the Constitution, allowing workers to take their mandatory pension savings for the first time since the pension system was established in 1981. Two other withdrawals took place in December 2020 and April 2021. Pension fund administrators had to liquidate assets (stocks and bonds) worth 20% of GDP within a short period. Using difference-in-differences and event study methods, we analyze these events, demonstrating how forced sales affected domestic asset prices. Our findings reveal that selling pressures during withdrawals impact domestic asset prices, with the Central Bank’s intervention in the bond market playing a significant role in shaping these effects.
{"title":"Price effects of asset forced sales during massive pension funds withdrawals","authors":"Juan D. Díaz, Erwin Hansen","doi":"10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103869","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103869","url":null,"abstract":"In July 2020, the Chilean Congress made an unexpected modification to the Constitution, allowing workers to take their mandatory pension savings for the first time since the pension system was established in 1981. Two other withdrawals took place in December 2020 and April 2021. Pension fund administrators had to liquidate assets (stocks and bonds) worth 20% of GDP within a short period. Using difference-in-differences and event study methods, we analyze these events, demonstrating how forced sales affected domestic asset prices. Our findings reveal that selling pressures during withdrawals impact domestic asset prices, with the Central Bank’s intervention in the bond market playing a significant role in shaping these effects.","PeriodicalId":48226,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Financial Analysis","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142874770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Contiguous Search: Exploration and Ambition on Uncharted Terrain","authors":"Can Urgun, Leeat Yariv","doi":"10.1086/732889","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/732889","url":null,"abstract":"Journal of Political Economy, Ahead of Print. <br/>","PeriodicalId":16875,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Political Economy","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142849089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-18DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108498
David Álvarez-Antelo, Paola López-Muñoz, Luis Llases, Arthur Lauer
Despite the importance of behavioural changes for transitioning to low-carbon societies, quantitative modelling has mainly focused on technological changes, overlooking the complex social dynamics of lifestyle shifts. In this study, we build a coupled system dynamics model linking a passenger transport model with an exploratory endogenous behavioural change model. We use this model and a scenario discovery methodology based on Monte Carlo simulations and multivariate sensitivity analysis to explore pathways for climate mitigation in the transport sector by shifting from flights to trains. Our model reveals several scenarios for mitigation, each requiring different policy combinations and social efforts. We found that personal environmental values significantly impact the speed of behavioural change and its contribution to emissions reduction by 2050, though policy incentives such as educational and economic policies could also help in their absence. Based on four pathways with distinct exogenous drivers, we present four storylines illustrating possible social contexts for a shift from air to train transport: Smart Policy Mix (1), Fast Adaptation (2), Luck in Misfortune (3), and Overcoming the Value-Action Gap (4). The scenarios reveal different situations for achieving mitigation objectives, varying in efficiency, desirability, and feasibility, while also exposing sociopolitical trade-offs. Our work contributes to the field of social and exploratory modelling, offering new insights into the social dynamics of sustainability transformations.
{"title":"Towards a sustainable mobility lifestyle: Exploring the flight to rail shift through model-based behavioural change scenarios","authors":"David Álvarez-Antelo, Paola López-Muñoz, Luis Llases, Arthur Lauer","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108498","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108498","url":null,"abstract":"Despite the importance of behavioural changes for transitioning to low-carbon societies, quantitative modelling has mainly focused on technological changes, overlooking the complex social dynamics of lifestyle shifts. In this study, we build a coupled system dynamics model linking a passenger transport model with an exploratory endogenous behavioural change model. We use this model and a scenario discovery methodology based on Monte Carlo simulations and multivariate sensitivity analysis to explore pathways for climate mitigation in the transport sector by shifting from flights to trains. Our model reveals several scenarios for mitigation, each requiring different policy combinations and social efforts. We found that personal environmental values significantly impact the speed of behavioural change and its contribution to emissions reduction by 2050, though policy incentives such as educational and economic policies could also help in their absence. Based on four pathways with distinct exogenous drivers, we present four storylines illustrating possible social contexts for a shift from air to train transport: <ce:italic>Smart Policy Mix (1)</ce:italic>, <ce:italic>Fast Adaptation (2)</ce:italic>, <ce:italic>Luck in Misfortune (3)</ce:italic>, and <ce:italic>Overcoming the Value-Action Gap (4)</ce:italic>. The scenarios reveal different situations for achieving mitigation objectives, varying in efficiency, desirability, and feasibility, while also exposing sociopolitical trade-offs. Our work contributes to the field of social and exploratory modelling, offering new insights into the social dynamics of sustainability transformations.","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"52 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142869925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We show that two important issues in empirical asset pricing—the presence of weak factors and the selection of test assets—are deeply connected. Since weak factors are those to which test assets have limited exposure, an appropriate selection of test assets can improve the strength of factors. Building on this insight, we introduce supervised principal component analysis (SPCA), a methodology that iterates supervised selection, principal-component estimation, and factor projection. It enables risk premia estimation and factor model diagnosis even when weak factors are present and not all factors are observed. We establish SPCA's asymptotic properties and showcase its empirical applications.
{"title":"Test Assets and Weak Factors","authors":"STEFANO GIGLIO, DACHENG XIU, DAKE ZHANG","doi":"10.1111/jofi.13415","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13415","url":null,"abstract":"We show that two important issues in empirical asset pricing—the presence of weak factors and the selection of test assets—are deeply connected. Since weak factors are those to which test assets have limited exposure, an appropriate selection of test assets can improve the strength of factors. Building on this insight, we introduce supervised principal component analysis (SPCA), a methodology that iterates supervised selection, principal-component estimation, and factor projection. It enables risk premia estimation and factor model diagnosis even when weak factors are present and not all factors are observed. We establish SPCA's asymptotic properties and showcase its empirical applications.","PeriodicalId":15753,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Finance","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142849553","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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