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The cost of inefficiency: A techno-economic assessment of gas flaring in Iraq 效率低下的代价：伊拉克天然气燃除的技术经济评估

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115215

Ahmed A. Maaroof , Joseph D. Smith , Mohammed H.S. Zangana

Routine gas flaring in Iraq represents a significant loss of energy resources and economic value while contributing to environmental degradation and power shortages. This study presents a national-scale techno-economic assessment of gas flaring in Iraq from 2012 to 2024 using satellite-derived data from the World Bank's Global Flaring and Methane Reduction (GFMR) database. Both estimated and potential recovery methods were applied to quantify thermal and electrical energy losses and their corresponding economic impacts. Flared gas volumes were converted to thermal power and potential electricity generation, expressed in megawatts (MW), while flaring rates were reported in million standard cubic feet per day (MMSCFD). Electrical output was evaluated assuming gas-fired power plant efficiencies of 40% and 60%. In addition to full recovery potential, partial gas utilization scenarios (20–80%) were considered to reflect realistic technical and infrastructure constraints, enabling both technical and economic analyses of recoverable energy and revenue. Results indicate that routine flaring corresponds to substantial electricity losses, with medium-sized flares (5–50 MMSCFD) contributing the largest share due to their widespread distribution. The estimated lost generation capacity ranges from approximately 8000 to 10,000 MW, sufficient to significantly mitigate Iraq's chronic electricity deficit. Economic losses were calculated based on flared gas volumes and Henry Hub natural gas prices. On average, these losses amount to USD 1–2 billion per year, with peak losses reaching nearly USD 3.3 billion. The findings highlight medium-scale flares as priority targets for scalable gas recovery and decentralized utilization strategies, demonstrating that even partial utilization can yield considerable energy and economic benefits.

在伊拉克，常规的天然气燃除是能源资源和经济价值的重大损失，同时造成环境恶化和电力短缺。本研究利用来自世界银行全球燃除和甲烷减少（GFMR）数据库的卫星数据，对2012年至2024年伊拉克天然气燃除进行了全国范围的技术经济评估。估算法和潜在采收率法均用于量化热能和电能损失及其相应的经济影响。燃烧后的天然气量转换为热能和潜在发电量，以兆瓦（MW）表示，而燃烧速率以百万标准立方英尺/天（MMSCFD）表示。假设燃气发电厂的效率分别为40%和60%，对电力输出进行了评估。除了完全开采潜力外，部分天然气利用情景（20-80%）也被认为反映了现实的技术和基础设施限制，从而能够对可采能源和收益进行技术和经济分析。结果表明，常规燃除会导致大量的电力损失，中型燃除（5-50 MMSCFD）由于分布广泛，造成的电力损失最大。估计损失的发电能力约为8000至10000兆瓦，足以显著缓解伊拉克长期的电力短缺。经济损失是根据燃烧天然气量和Henry Hub天然气价格计算的。这些损失平均每年达10 - 20亿美元，最高损失达到近33亿美元。研究结果强调，中等规模的火炬是可扩展的天然气回收和分散利用策略的优先目标，表明即使部分利用也可以产生可观的能源和经济效益。

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引用次数: 0

Political competition, party structure and economic growth: Theory and evidence from Indian states 政治竞争、政党结构与经济增长：来自印度各邦的理论与证据

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2026.102808

J.Stephen Ferris , Bharatee Bhusana Dash

This paper uses a two period overlapping generations model with balanced growth to investigate the links arising among political competition, the effective number of political parties (ENP), the composition of government spending and the growth rate of the economy. The model highlights three hypotheses with respect to political competition and ENP. First, while a small rise in ENP is required to breakdown oligopolistic political power, a further rise will fragment the credibility of opposition to the incumbent governing party, lessening effective competition and leading to operational inefficiency and excessive government size. The second hypothesis argues that an increase in party competitiveness produces a compositional output response leading to a more consumption intensive package of government services. Third, effective party competition is complementary with economic growth. All three imply a non-monotonic relationship with ENP. A panel of annual data on 14 major Indian states spread over six decades is used to test these predictions and the results suggest that the data from Indian states fit well with the predictions of the model.

本文采用平衡增长的两期重叠代模型，考察了政治竞争、有效政党数、政府支出构成和经济增长率之间的关系。该模型强调了关于政治竞争和环境政策的三个假设。首先，虽然ENP的小幅上升是打破寡头垄断政治权力所必需的，但进一步上升将破坏现任执政党反对派的可信度，减少有效竞争，导致运作效率低下和政府规模过大。第二种假设认为，政党竞争力的提高会产生一种组合产出反应，从而导致消费密集型的一揽子政府服务。第三，有效的政党竞争与经济增长相辅相成。这三者都暗示了与ENP的非单调关系。一组来自印度14个主要邦的年度数据在过去60年里被用来测试这些预测，结果表明来自印度邦的数据与模型的预测非常吻合。

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引用次数: 0

Term limits and corruption: Evidence from U.S. states 任期限制与腐败：来自美国各州的证据

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102796

Yacov Tsur

Term limits exert two opposing effects on political corruption: they increase the incidence (frequency) while reducing the magnitude (average cost) of corrupt acts. Higher incidence arises from weakened electoral accountability during lame-duck and penultimate terms. Lower magnitude results from shorter tenures that impede the formation of extensive corrupt networks. Using cross-state variation in U.S. gubernatorial term-limit regimes, the analysis reveals that penultimate-term effects can raise the incidence of corruption by 28 %, yet concurrent reductions in magnitude more than offset this increase. Building on the well-established negative association between economic growth and corruption, the analysis employs observed state-level growth as a proxy for the aggregate impact of corruption. The findings indicate that stricter term limits are associated with lower overall corruption, underscoring the potential role of term limits as an institutional safeguard against political corruption.

任期限制对政治腐败产生两种相反的影响：它们增加了腐败行为的发生率（频率），同时降低了腐败行为的规模（平均成本）。较高的发生率是由于跛脚鸭和倒数第二个任期期间选举问责制的削弱。较低的幅度源于较短的任期，这阻碍了广泛腐败网络的形成。利用美国州长任期限制制度的跨州差异，分析显示倒数第二个任期的影响会使腐败发生率增加28%，但同时减少的幅度远远抵消了这种增加。基于经济增长与腐败之间公认的负相关关系，该分析采用观察到的国家级经济增长作为腐败总体影响的代表。研究结果表明，更严格的任期限制与总体腐败程度较低有关，强调了任期限制作为防止政治腐败的制度保障的潜在作用。

引用次数: 0

Positivity and long-lasting momentum 积极和持久的动力

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Empirical Finance

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2026.101694

Jingjing Chen , George J. Jiang , Chenye Liu , Dongming Zhu

We propose a simple momentum indicator positivity, defined as the percentage of days with non-negative returns, and show that it has a strong predictive power for stock returns over long horizons up to five years. The return-predictive power outlasts other conventional momentum indicators, including past stock returns and stock return consistency. We show that winners identified by positivity are young small-medium value firms, with relatively low sales growth but high earnings growth and robust fundamentals. Moreover, we show that in contrast to volatile “glamorous” growth stocks, these steady value stocks receive less attention of short-term speculative and noise traders and have modest valuation. Finally, we show that the long-lasting momentum of high positivity stocks is justified by persistent superior fundamental performance.

我们提出了一个简单的动量指标positive，定义为非负收益的天数百分比，并表明它对长达五年的长期股票收益具有很强的预测能力。收益预测能力比其他传统动量指标（包括过去股票收益和股票收益一致性）持续时间更长。我们发现，乐观的赢家是年轻的中小型价值公司，它们的销售增长相对较低，但盈利增长较高，基本面强劲。此外，我们表明，与波动的“迷人”成长股相比，这些稳定的价值股受到短期投机和噪音交易者的关注较少，估值适中。最后，我们表明，高正性股票的持久势头是由持续优异的基本面表现证明的。

引用次数: 0

When choice matters: The asymmetric effects of precommitment implementation on healthy food choice 当选择重要：承诺前执行对健康食品选择的不对称影响

IF 2.3 2区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Economic Psychology

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.joep.2026.102889

Marta Favara , Joanna Mihaylova , Alan Sánchez

This paper investigates the role of precommitment in making healthy food choices, using a lab-in-the-field experiment embedded in the Young Lives longitudinal study in Peru. Leveraging the fact that participants were scheduled for a blood test and would therefore require a snack afterwards, we elicited participants’ snack choice from a predefined set. Participants were asked whether they wished to pre-commit to their preferred snack choice (either healthy or unhealthy) to be consumed the following day, following their blood test, or to choose the snack on the spot. A randomised subsample was informed about the rationale for precommitment (information treatment) prior to their decision. After deciding whether they would like to pre-commit their snack choice or not, participants were again randomised into two groups: the first group had their preferred choice (either pre-commit or choose on the spot) implemented; in contrast, the second group’s choice was overridden (‘choice override’ treatment). Our findings suggest that: first, there is a high demand for precommitment, with 68.5% of participants wanting to pre-commit their preferred snack choice. Second, the information treatment had no significant effect on participants’ willingness to pre-commit. Third, overriding participants’ precommitment decision leads to asymmetric effects on desired behaviour: for those who had pre-committed to a healthy snack, being forced to choose on the spot decreases healthy food choice; conversely, those who pre-committed to an unhealthy snack were more likely to choose a healthy one. These findings highlight the need to carefully target commitment devices, given their potential asymmetric effects on desired behaviours.

本文调查了预先承诺在健康食品选择中的作用，使用了秘鲁年轻生活纵向研究中嵌入的现场实验室实验。考虑到参与者被安排进行血液测试，因此之后需要零食，我们从预定义的集合中引出参与者的零食选择。参与者被问及他们是希望在血液测试后提前决定第二天食用的零食（健康或不健康），还是当场选择零食。在他们做出决定之前，一个随机的子样本被告知承诺前（信息处理）的基本原理。在决定他们是否愿意提前选择零食后，参与者再次被随机分为两组：第一组执行他们的首选（要么提前选择，要么当场选择）；相比之下，第二组的选择被推翻（“选择推翻”治疗）。我们的研究结果表明：首先，有很高的预先承诺需求，68.5%的参与者想要预先承诺他们喜欢的零食选择。第二，信息处理对被试的预承诺意愿没有显著影响。第三，压倒参与者的事前决定导致对期望行为的不对称影响：对于那些预先承诺健康零食的人来说，被迫当场选择健康食品减少了他们的选择；相反，那些事先承诺吃不健康零食的人更有可能选择健康零食。这些发现强调，鉴于承诺手段对期望行为的潜在不对称影响，有必要谨慎地瞄准承诺手段。

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引用次数: 0

Extraction and dematerialization in Latin America, 1970–2023 1970-2023年拉丁美洲的提取和非物质化

IF 6.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECOLOGY

Ecological Economics

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108947

Fander Falconí , Rafael Burbano , Pedro Cango , Ruthy Intriago

The aim of this article is to examine the causes of the increase in material extraction in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) in a context of weak relative dematerialization. It argues that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, far from reducing pressure on natural resources, has driven the expansion of extraction by sustaining a growth pattern based on material-intensive activities. In this context, the article analyses the causes and consequences of this intensification between 1970 and 2023, highlighting its negative impacts on ecosystems and the emergence of social conflicts, and incorporates a comparative perspective with other world regions. The results, based on a VAR model, show that in LAC and South America extraction increases in response to economic growth, as expressed by GDP; and, using a PVAR model and Granger causality tests reveals that LAC extraction affects only fossil fuel exports. In South America, there is bidirectional causality between extraction and fossil fuel exports, while biomass exports depend on extraction. These findings stress the urgent need to redirect economic strategies toward more sustainable and equitable development models in the region.

本文的目的是研究在相对非物质化弱的背景下，拉丁美洲和加勒比地区（LAC）物质提取增加的原因。报告认为，国内生产总值（GDP）的增长非但没有减少对自然资源的压力，反而通过维持以材料密集型活动为基础的增长模式，推动了采掘活动的扩大。在此背景下，本文分析了1970年至2023年间这种加剧的原因和后果，强调了其对生态系统的负面影响和社会冲突的出现，并结合了与世界其他地区的比较视角。基于VAR模型的结果表明，在拉丁美洲和南美洲，采掘量随着GDP表示的经济增长而增加；利用PVAR模型和格兰杰因果关系检验表明，LAC开采仅影响化石燃料出口。在南美洲，开采与化石燃料出口之间存在双向因果关系，而生物质出口则取决于开采。这些发现强调，迫切需要将经济战略转向该地区更可持续和更公平的发展模式。

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引用次数: 0

Urbanisation and the political demography of African cities 城市化和非洲城市的政治人口统计学

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107344

Nick Dorward , Kristian Hoelscher

Africa is undergoing a rapid process of urban demographic change. Increasingly youthful population structures are defining the continent’s towns and cities. Scholarship suggests this will be associated with greater protest incidence and lower levels of voting and electoral participation. However, these findings often rely on national-level data, despite there being considerable subnational variation in population structures between African cities. Building on existing theory, we argue that local demographic contexts matter for political behaviour. Specifically, we hypothesise that youthful urban demographic structures will be associated with lower levels of formal political participation (voting) and greater levels of informal contentious mobilisation (protest) for all individuals, and that the magnitude of this effect will be greater for younger people. We test these expectations using novel geospatial data on the spatial extent of unique urban settlements, urban-level age and sex structures, and geolocated individual-level survey data from 399 cities in 36 countries across Africa. Using multilevel regression, we find that individuals are more likely to vote in more youthful urban contexts, with young people no more or less likely to vote than their older counterparts. Conversely, we find no significant relationship between individual protest participation and city youth shares overall. However, young people in more youthful cities are significantly more likely to protest than older people. In light of these findings, we discuss how the demographic composition of individual cities in Africa nuances our understanding of political behaviour and contentious mobilisation.

非洲正在经历一个迅速的城市人口变化过程。越来越年轻的人口结构正在定义非洲大陆的城镇。学者认为，这将与更大的抗议事件和更低的投票和选举参与水平有关。然而，这些发现往往依赖于国家一级的数据，尽管非洲城市之间的人口结构存在相当大的次国家差异。在现有理论的基础上，我们认为当地的人口背景对政治行为很重要。具体来说，我们假设年轻的城市人口结构将与所有个人的较低水平的正式政治参与（投票）和较高水平的非正式争议动员（抗议）相关联，并且这种影响对年轻人的影响将更大。我们使用新颖的地理空间数据来测试这些预期，这些数据包括独特的城市住区的空间范围、城市层面的年龄和性别结构，以及来自非洲36个国家399个城市的地理层面的个人调查数据。使用多层回归，我们发现在更年轻的城市环境中，个人更有可能投票，年轻人投票的可能性并不比老年人更多或更少。相反，我们发现个人抗议参与与城市青年总体比例之间没有显著关系。然而，在更年轻的城市，年轻人明显比老年人更有可能进行抗议。根据这些发现，我们讨论了非洲各个城市的人口构成如何使我们对政治行为和有争议的动员的理解产生细微差别。

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引用次数: 0

Good students, mimics and laggards: Policy lessons for closing electricity access gaps in Africa 好学生、模仿者和落后者：缩小非洲电力供应差距的政策教训

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115196

Carlos Guadarrama , Yaya Liu

This paper examines why extensive adoption of off-grid and mini-grid “best practice” policies has not translated into improved electricity access outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa. Building on the Regulatory Indicators for Sustainable Energy (RISE), we combine a cross-sectional analysis of rural electrification rates with a nested analysis of four contrasting country cases—Kenya, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, and South Sudan. We find that higher RISE off-grid and mini-grid scores are not associated with better rural electrification outcomes, and that countries with near-complete policy adoption can exhibit low access rates. The case studies show that local capabilities, a small number of cross-cutting policies, financing availability, and appropriate policy sequencing matter more than policy quantity. These findings highlight the limits of best-practice benchmarking in low-capacity contexts and suggest that RISE is most useful as a diagnostic policy database rather than a performance metric. The results have implications for policymakers and development partners seeking to accelerate progress toward SDG7.

本文探讨了为什么在撒哈拉以南非洲，广泛采用离网和微型电网“最佳实践”政策并没有转化为改善电力供应的结果。在可持续能源监管指标（RISE）的基础上，我们将农村电气化率的横断面分析与肯尼亚、刚果民主共和国、尼日利亚和南苏丹四个对比性国家的嵌套分析相结合。我们发现，更高的RISE离网和微网得分与更好的农村电气化结果无关，并且几乎完全采用政策的国家可能表现出较低的接入率。案例研究表明，地方能力、少量交叉政策、融资可用性和适当的政策顺序比政策数量更重要。这些发现突出了最佳实践基准测试在低容量环境中的局限性，并表明RISE作为诊断策略数据库而不是性能指标最有用。研究结果对寻求加速实现可持续发展七国集团的政策制定者和发展伙伴具有重要意义。

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引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “Support mechanisms for low-carbon hydrogen: The risks of segmenting a commodity market” [Energy Policy 202 art 114605 DOI 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114605] “低碳氢支持机制：分割商品市场的风险”的勘误表[能源政策202 art 114605 DOI 10.1016/ j.p enpol.2025.114605]

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115150

Paolo Mastropietro, Pablo Rodilla

引用次数: 0

Energy policy strategies for cleaner production: The roles of renewable energy and green innovation 清洁生产的能源政策战略：可再生能源和绿色创新的作用

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115214

Yugang He

Cleaner production is central to reconciling economic growth with climate goals, yet its drivers operate unevenly across space. This study examines the determinants of provincial carbon emissions using an annual panel of Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2023, with explicit attention to structural, technological, and institutional heterogeneity. The analysis evaluates the roles of renewable energy deployment and green innovation, while systematically accounting for GDP per capita, industrial structure, urbanization, foreign direct investment, and environmental regulation. Across a suite of complementary estimators that address cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity, higher renewable energy shares and stronger innovation capacity are consistently associated with lower CO₂ emissions. These mitigation effects are economically meaningful and robust, whereas economic growth remains emissions-increasing. By contrast, industrial upgrading and stringent environmental regulation are linked to significant emission reductions, urbanization exhibits a modest positive association, and the effect of foreign direct investment is weak and context dependent. Distribution-sensitive estimates further reveal pronounced asymmetries: the emissions-reducing impacts of renewable energy and innovation intensify markedly in high-emission provinces, highlighting the limits of uniform policy prescriptions. Machine-learning validation confirms the dominant importance of renewable energy and innovation among competing drivers and supports the stability of the empirical patterns. Taken together, the findings underscore the value of regionally differentiated strategies that integrate clean energy expansion, innovation incentives, and enforceable regulation. Such an approach directly advances SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and SDG 13 (Climate Action), while reinforcing SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure) and SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production) through cleaner and more resilient production systems.

清洁生产是协调经济增长与气候目标的核心，但其驱动因素在不同地区的运作并不均衡。本研究利用2000年至2023年中国各省的年度面板分析了各省碳排放的决定因素，并明确关注结构、技术和制度异质性。该分析评估了可再生能源部署和绿色创新的作用，同时系统地考虑了人均GDP、产业结构、城市化、外国直接投资和环境监管。在一套解决横截面依赖性和斜率异质性的互补估计中，更高的可再生能源份额和更强的创新能力始终与更低的二氧化碳排放相关。这些减缓效应在经济上是有意义和强劲的，而经济增长仍然是在增加排放。相比之下，产业升级和严格的环境监管与显著的减排相关，城市化表现出适度的正相关，外国直接投资的影响较弱且依赖于环境。分布敏感估计进一步揭示了明显的不对称性：可再生能源和创新的减排影响在高排放省份显著增强，突出了统一政策处方的局限性。机器学习验证证实了可再生能源和创新在竞争驱动因素中的主导重要性，并支持了经验模式的稳定性。总而言之，研究结果强调了区域差异化战略的价值，该战略将清洁能源扩张、创新激励和可执行的监管结合起来。这种方法直接推进了可持续发展目标7（负担得起的清洁能源）和可持续发展目标13（气候行动），同时通过更清洁和更具弹性的生产系统加强了可持续发展目标9（工业、创新和基础设施）和可持续发展目标12（负责任的消费和生产）。

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