Pub Date : 2024-05-01Epub Date: 2022-05-26DOI: 10.1080/15374416.2022.2062761
Samantha Barney, Margaret H Sibley, Stefany J Coxe, Michael C Meinzer, William E Pelham
The current study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of a high-intensity (HI) versus a low-intensity (LI) skills-based summer intervention delivered to adolescents with ADHD by school staff in improving depressive symptoms, anxiety symptoms, social problems, and self-esteem. Participants were 325 ethnically diverse rising sixth and ninth graders with ADHD randomized to an HI versus an LI intervention (n = 218) or recruited into an untreated comparison group (n = 107). Group x time and group x grade x time one-year outcome trajectories were compared using linear mixed models. Across the transitional year (sixth or ninth grade), adolescents in the HI group were found to experience significantly greater decreases in depressive symptoms (p = .022, d = .25) compared to the LI group. There was no significant impact of the HI intervention (vs. LI) on anxiety symptoms (p = .070, d = .29), social problems (p = .054, d = .34), or self-esteem (p = .837, d = 0.21); however, secondary analyses of the non-randomized untreated comparison group indicated a significant effect of HI versus the untreated comparison group on social problems (p = .009, d = 43). These significant treatment effects suggest that comprehensive academic and organizational skills interventions for adolescents with ADHD may have a secondary impact of relieving adolescent depression for teens with this comorbidity. Given mixed evidence for the efficacy of the HI intervention on social skills, future work should further evaluate this effect.
本研究旨在评估由学校教职员工为患有多动症的青少年提供的高强度（HI）与低强度（LI）技能型暑期干预在改善抑郁症状、焦虑症状、社交问题和自尊方面的效果。参与者为 325 名不同种族的六年级和九年级新入学的多动症学生，他们被随机分配到 HI 与 LI 干预组（n = 218）或未接受治疗的对比组（n = 107）。使用线性混合模型比较了 "组x时间 "和 "组x年级x时间 "的一年结果轨迹。在整个过渡年（六年级或九年级）期间，HI 组青少年的抑郁症状较 LI 组明显减少（p = .022, d = .25）。健康教育干预对焦虑症状（p = .070，d = .29）、社会问题（p = .054，d = .34）或自尊（p = .837，d = 0.21）没有明显影响；然而，对非随机未治疗对比组的二次分析表明，健康教育干预对未治疗对比组的社会问题有明显影响（p = .009，d = 43）。这些显着的治疗效果表明，对多动症青少年进行全面的学业和组织技能干预，可能会对患有这种合并症的青少年产生缓解青春期抑郁的辅助影响。鉴于HI干预对社交技能的疗效证据不一，未来的工作应进一步评估这一效果。
{"title":"High Versus Low Intensity Summer Adolescent ADHD Treatment Effects on Internalizing, Social, and Self-Esteem Problems.","authors":"Samantha Barney, Margaret H Sibley, Stefany J Coxe, Michael C Meinzer, William E Pelham","doi":"10.1080/15374416.2022.2062761","DOIUrl":"10.1080/15374416.2022.2062761","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The current study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of a high-intensity (HI) versus a low-intensity (LI) skills-based summer intervention delivered to adolescents with ADHD by school staff in improving depressive symptoms, anxiety symptoms, social problems, and self-esteem. Participants were 325 ethnically diverse rising sixth and ninth graders with ADHD randomized to an HI versus an LI intervention (<i>n</i> = 218) or recruited into an untreated comparison group (<i>n</i> = 107). Group x time and group x grade x time one-year outcome trajectories were compared using linear mixed models. Across the transitional year (sixth or ninth grade), adolescents in the HI group were found to experience significantly greater decreases in depressive symptoms (<i>p = </i>.022, <i>d</i> = .25) compared to the LI group. There was no significant impact of the HI intervention (vs. LI) on anxiety symptoms (<i>p = </i>.070, <i>d = </i>.29), social problems (<i>p = </i>.054, <i>d = </i>.34), or self-esteem (<i>p = </i>.837, <i>d</i> = 0.21); however, secondary analyses of the non-randomized untreated comparison group indicated a significant effect of HI versus the untreated comparison group on social problems (<i>p = </i>.009, <i>d = </i>43). These significant treatment effects suggest that comprehensive academic and organizational skills interventions for adolescents with ADHD may have a secondary impact of relieving adolescent depression for teens with this comorbidity. Given mixed evidence for the efficacy of the HI intervention on social skills, future work should further evaluate this effect.</p>","PeriodicalId":44170,"journal":{"name":"Investigacion Economica","volume":"74 1","pages":"389-396"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76402143","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-24DOI: 10.22201/fe.01851667p.2023.326.86163
Gerardo Angeles-Castro, Christian Said Domínguez-Blancas, Carlos A. Fraga-Castillo
The effect of manufacturing production on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and on total and manufacturing productivity, as well as the dynamic effect created in the economy by the industrial sector, under Kaldor’s view, is a topic under debate due to the patterns presented in deindustrialisation and industrial productivity in developed countries. However, developing countries such as some in the Latin American region have presented different patterns. This article aims to study the validity of Kaldor’s Laws in the largest economies in Latin America and compare results with the case of European economies. For this, an econometric methodology of static and dynamic panel data is used in a sample of 12 countries in the time period between 1992 and 2021. The study yields particular results such as a small coefficient between the growth of manufacturing and its productivity, but a dynamic effect among the two variables.
{"title":"KALDOR-VERDOORN LAWS IN THE LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES, 1992-2021","authors":"Gerardo Angeles-Castro, Christian Said Domínguez-Blancas, Carlos A. Fraga-Castillo","doi":"10.22201/fe.01851667p.2023.326.86163","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22201/fe.01851667p.2023.326.86163","url":null,"abstract":"The effect of manufacturing production on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and on total and manufacturing productivity, as well as the dynamic effect created in the economy by the industrial sector, under Kaldor’s view, is a topic under debate due to the patterns presented in deindustrialisation and industrial productivity in developed countries. However, developing countries such as some in the Latin American region have presented different patterns. This article aims to study the validity of Kaldor’s Laws in the largest economies in Latin America and compare results with the case of European economies. For this, an econometric methodology of static and dynamic panel data is used in a sample of 12 countries in the time period between 1992 and 2021. The study yields particular results such as a small coefficient between the growth of manufacturing and its productivity, but a dynamic effect among the two variables.","PeriodicalId":44170,"journal":{"name":"Investigacion Economica","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135926065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
RESUMEN En este trabajo desarrollamos un modelo teórico que explora los efectos desinflacionarios y distributivos del crecimiento económico. Sin margen para fijar el tipo de cambio nominal y con falta de credibilidad de la autoridad monetaria, el crecimiento puede ser una alternativa para la desinflación si se sostiene con incrementos de la productividad. En condiciones no tan particulares, asociadas al valor que toman las elasticidades empleo-producto e importaciones-producto, no sólo no es necesario resignar crecimiento para reducir la inflación, sino que este permite reducir los costos unitarios de producción por incrementos de productividad. No obstante, esta estrategia basada en el crecimiento trae consigo una mayor desigualdad de ingresos, y si los salarios son muy sensibles al crecimiento del producto podrían ser contraproducentes para la desinflación. GROWTH, DISINFLATION AND DISTRIBUTION: ANOTHER IMPOSSIBLE TRINITY? ABSTRACT This paper builds a theoretical model that seeks to explore the disinflationary and distributional effects of economic growth. With no margin to fix the nominal exchange rate, and with a lack of credibility of the monetary authority, growth can be an alternative to disinflation if it is supported by productivity increases. Under not so particular conditions, associated with the value of employment-output and imports-output elasticities, not only is it not necessary to give up growth to reduce inflation, but it also allows reducing unit production costs through productivity increases. However, this growth-based strategy brings with it greater income inequality, and if wages are very sensitive to output growth it could be counterproductive to disinflation.
{"title":"CRECIMIENTO, DESINFLACIÓN Y DISTRIBUCIÓN: ¿OTRA TRINIDAD IMPOSIBLE?","authors":"Florencia Melisa Fares, Guido Zack, Emiliano Libman","doi":"10.22201/fe.01851667p.2023.326.84940","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22201/fe.01851667p.2023.326.84940","url":null,"abstract":"RESUMEN En este trabajo desarrollamos un modelo teórico que explora los efectos desinflacionarios y distributivos del crecimiento económico. Sin margen para fijar el tipo de cambio nominal y con falta de credibilidad de la autoridad monetaria, el crecimiento puede ser una alternativa para la desinflación si se sostiene con incrementos de la productividad. En condiciones no tan particulares, asociadas al valor que toman las elasticidades empleo-producto e importaciones-producto, no sólo no es necesario resignar crecimiento para reducir la inflación, sino que este permite reducir los costos unitarios de producción por incrementos de productividad. No obstante, esta estrategia basada en el crecimiento trae consigo una mayor desigualdad de ingresos, y si los salarios son muy sensibles al crecimiento del producto podrían ser contraproducentes para la desinflación. GROWTH, DISINFLATION AND DISTRIBUTION: ANOTHER IMPOSSIBLE TRINITY? ABSTRACT This paper builds a theoretical model that seeks to explore the disinflationary and distributional effects of economic growth. With no margin to fix the nominal exchange rate, and with a lack of credibility of the monetary authority, growth can be an alternative to disinflation if it is supported by productivity increases. Under not so particular conditions, associated with the value of employment-output and imports-output elasticities, not only is it not necessary to give up growth to reduce inflation, but it also allows reducing unit production costs through productivity increases. However, this growth-based strategy brings with it greater income inequality, and if wages are very sensitive to output growth it could be counterproductive to disinflation.","PeriodicalId":44170,"journal":{"name":"Investigacion Economica","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135926067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-24DOI: 10.22201/fe.01851667p.2023.326.86382
Kevin S. Nell
This paper pays tribute to Professor Thirlwall’s substantive work in growth and development economics by providing a review of his book Inflation, Saving and Growth in Developing Economies (1974b) [hereafter ISGD]. Indeed, the hallmark of a good economics book is whether its theoretical content and empirical predictions made several decades ago remain relevant when assessed against more recent evidence. Thirlwall’s ISGD book exhibits all these qualities. It emphasises the importance of distinguishing between different types of inflation. Structural inflation and, to a lesser extent, cost inflation, should be seen as the inevitable outcomes of the growth and development process, whereas demand inflation may act as a direct stimulus to growth, as predicted by the Kaldor-Thirlwall model of forced saving and the inflation tax model. These theoretical insights remain highly relevant in today’s developing economies. Studies tend to show that inflation thresholds, up until the point where the effect of inflation on growth is positive, tend to be higher in developing economies relative to advanced countries, owing to a combination of structural, cost and demand-side sources of inflation. The analysis further argues that inflationary finance of development, as advanced in ISGD, remains a viable development strategy when open-economy constraints are considered.
{"title":"INFLATION AND GROWTH IN DEVELOPING ECONOMIES: A TRIBUTE TO PROFESSOR THIRLWALL","authors":"Kevin S. Nell","doi":"10.22201/fe.01851667p.2023.326.86382","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22201/fe.01851667p.2023.326.86382","url":null,"abstract":"This paper pays tribute to Professor Thirlwall’s substantive work in growth and development economics by providing a review of his book Inflation, Saving and Growth in Developing Economies (1974b) [hereafter ISGD]. Indeed, the hallmark of a good economics book is whether its theoretical content and empirical predictions made several decades ago remain relevant when assessed against more recent evidence. Thirlwall’s ISGD book exhibits all these qualities. It emphasises the importance of distinguishing between different types of inflation. Structural inflation and, to a lesser extent, cost inflation, should be seen as the inevitable outcomes of the growth and development process, whereas demand inflation may act as a direct stimulus to growth, as predicted by the Kaldor-Thirlwall model of forced saving and the inflation tax model. These theoretical insights remain highly relevant in today’s developing economies. Studies tend to show that inflation thresholds, up until the point where the effect of inflation on growth is positive, tend to be higher in developing economies relative to advanced countries, owing to a combination of structural, cost and demand-side sources of inflation. The analysis further argues that inflationary finance of development, as advanced in ISGD, remains a viable development strategy when open-economy constraints are considered.","PeriodicalId":44170,"journal":{"name":"Investigacion Economica","volume":"60 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135926070","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-24DOI: 10.22201/fe.01851667p.2023.326.86496
José Luis Oreiro
The aim of this article is to argue that New-Developmentalism —understood as an approach to the deep determinants of economic development in which macroeconomic policy regime has a key role in explaining the long-term growth differentials among countries, notably middle-income countries— is not incompatible with Balance of Payments Constrained Growth models pioneered and developed by Professor Thirlwall, but can be considered an extension and improvement of such a class of models in order to incorporate structural change induced by exchange rate overvaluation as the main limit of long-run growth for middle-income dual economies, thereby explaining the so-called middle-income trap.
{"title":"THIRLWALL’S LAW AND NEW-DEVELOPMENTALISM: WHAT ARE THE LIMITS FOR LONG-RUN GROWTH?","authors":"José Luis Oreiro","doi":"10.22201/fe.01851667p.2023.326.86496","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22201/fe.01851667p.2023.326.86496","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this article is to argue that New-Developmentalism —understood as an approach to the deep determinants of economic development in which macroeconomic policy regime has a key role in explaining the long-term growth differentials among countries, notably middle-income countries— is not incompatible with Balance of Payments Constrained Growth models pioneered and developed by Professor Thirlwall, but can be considered an extension and improvement of such a class of models in order to incorporate structural change induced by exchange rate overvaluation as the main limit of long-run growth for middle-income dual economies, thereby explaining the so-called middle-income trap.","PeriodicalId":44170,"journal":{"name":"Investigacion Economica","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135926066","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-24DOI: 10.22201/fe.01851667p.2023.326.86695
Esteban Pérez Caldentey
Tony Thirlwall considers Roy Harrod (1900-1978) one of the greatest economists of the 20th century and second, in originality, to Keynes among British economists. Along with Kaldor, Thirlwall recognized the superior analytical power of Harrod’s foreign trade multiplier over the Keynesian investment multiplier. The analysis of the impact of the balance of payments on countries’ economic performance led him to formulate Thirlwall’s law. Thirlwall has underscored the generality of Harrod’s dynamic foreign trade multiplier by extending it to explain interregional growth rate differences. He has also provided greater consistency to Harrod’s dynamics by integrating the balance-of-payments equilibrium growth rate with Harrod’s warranted and natural growth rates. Abstracting from external sector considerations, Thirlwall has shown that the relation between the natural and warranted rates of growth is a useful pedagogic device for understanding the policy choices available to less developed countries.
{"title":"THIRLWALL ON HARROD","authors":"Esteban Pérez Caldentey","doi":"10.22201/fe.01851667p.2023.326.86695","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22201/fe.01851667p.2023.326.86695","url":null,"abstract":"Tony Thirlwall considers Roy Harrod (1900-1978) one of the greatest economists of the 20th century and second, in originality, to Keynes among British economists. Along with Kaldor, Thirlwall recognized the superior analytical power of Harrod’s foreign trade multiplier over the Keynesian investment multiplier. The analysis of the impact of the balance of payments on countries’ economic performance led him to formulate Thirlwall’s law. Thirlwall has underscored the generality of Harrod’s dynamic foreign trade multiplier by extending it to explain interregional growth rate differences. He has also provided greater consistency to Harrod’s dynamics by integrating the balance-of-payments equilibrium growth rate with Harrod’s warranted and natural growth rates. Abstracting from external sector considerations, Thirlwall has shown that the relation between the natural and warranted rates of growth is a useful pedagogic device for understanding the policy choices available to less developed countries.","PeriodicalId":44170,"journal":{"name":"Investigacion Economica","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135926068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-24DOI: 10.22201/fe.01851667p.2023.326.86215
Mario Aceves Mejía, Carlos Absalón Copete
RESUMEN El artículo revisa y reformula teórica y empíricamente la relación no lineal entre la inflación y el crecimiento económico planteada por Thirlwall (1974) para el conjunto de economías de América Latina que han seguido stricto sensu el régimen de metas de inflación durante el periodo 2003-2020. La hipótesis de esta investigación reside en la existencia de un nivel de inflación óptimo en el que la tasa de crecimiento económico logra un nivel máximo, horizonte de inflación distinto al objetivo de política monetaria actual. Por consiguiente, el argumento que se desarrolla en este artículo trata sobre la existencia de una relación positiva entre el crecimiento y la inflación a niveles moderados, pero el grado de preferencia de los bancos centrales ha sido tal que ha sacrificado crecimiento y empleo en aras de la estabilidad de los precios. INFLATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN LATIN AMERICA, A NON-LINEAR RELATIONSHIP ABSTRACT The article reviews and reformulates theoretically and empirically the non-linear relationship between inflation and economic growth proposed by Thirlwall (1974) for the set of Latin American economies that strictly use the inflation targeting regime during the period 2003-2020. The hypothesis of this research resides in the existence of an optimal inflation level for which the economic growth rate reaches a maximum level, an inflation rate which differs from the current monetary policy target. Consequently, the argument developed in this article deals with the existence of a positive relationship between growth and inflation at low levels, while the degree of preference of central banks has been such that they have given up growth and employment opportunities to price stability.
{"title":"INFLACIÓN Y CRECIMIENTO ECONÓMICO EN AMÉRICA LATINA, UNA RELACIÓN NO LINEAL","authors":"Mario Aceves Mejía, Carlos Absalón Copete","doi":"10.22201/fe.01851667p.2023.326.86215","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22201/fe.01851667p.2023.326.86215","url":null,"abstract":"RESUMEN El artículo revisa y reformula teórica y empíricamente la relación no lineal entre la inflación y el crecimiento económico planteada por Thirlwall (1974) para el conjunto de economías de América Latina que han seguido stricto sensu el régimen de metas de inflación durante el periodo 2003-2020. La hipótesis de esta investigación reside en la existencia de un nivel de inflación óptimo en el que la tasa de crecimiento económico logra un nivel máximo, horizonte de inflación distinto al objetivo de política monetaria actual. Por consiguiente, el argumento que se desarrolla en este artículo trata sobre la existencia de una relación positiva entre el crecimiento y la inflación a niveles moderados, pero el grado de preferencia de los bancos centrales ha sido tal que ha sacrificado crecimiento y empleo en aras de la estabilidad de los precios. INFLATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN LATIN AMERICA, A NON-LINEAR RELATIONSHIP ABSTRACT The article reviews and reformulates theoretically and empirically the non-linear relationship between inflation and economic growth proposed by Thirlwall (1974) for the set of Latin American economies that strictly use the inflation targeting regime during the period 2003-2020. The hypothesis of this research resides in the existence of an optimal inflation level for which the economic growth rate reaches a maximum level, an inflation rate which differs from the current monetary policy target. Consequently, the argument developed in this article deals with the existence of a positive relationship between growth and inflation at low levels, while the degree of preference of central banks has been such that they have given up growth and employment opportunities to price stability.","PeriodicalId":44170,"journal":{"name":"Investigacion Economica","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135926069","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-24DOI: 10.22201/fe.01851667p.2023.326.86115
Gonçalo Amado
The international trade in services has grown exponentially, both in developed and developing countries, outpacing the manufacturing growth. According to the literature, there are two waves of growth in the services sector: A first wave in developing countries specializing in traditional services; a second wave in developed countries and producers of modern services. Using the multisectoral Thirlwall’s law model for 90 countries, modern services have the highest income-elasticity. The role of relative prices is not significant. Also, the two waves of growth are verified. Countries that are more competitive in international services grow less relative to global growth but have a higher level of development. In less developed countries with a higher share in tourism exports, the higher the surplus of the balance of services, the lower the current account balance.
{"title":"A THIRLWALL’S LAW APPLICATION TO INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN SERVICES","authors":"Gonçalo Amado","doi":"10.22201/fe.01851667p.2023.326.86115","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22201/fe.01851667p.2023.326.86115","url":null,"abstract":"The international trade in services has grown exponentially, both in developed and developing countries, outpacing the manufacturing growth. According to the literature, there are two waves of growth in the services sector: A first wave in developing countries specializing in traditional services; a second wave in developed countries and producers of modern services. Using the multisectoral Thirlwall’s law model for 90 countries, modern services have the highest income-elasticity. The role of relative prices is not significant. Also, the two waves of growth are verified. Countries that are more competitive in international services grow less relative to global growth but have a higher level of development. In less developed countries with a higher share in tourism exports, the higher the surplus of the balance of services, the lower the current account balance.","PeriodicalId":44170,"journal":{"name":"Investigacion Economica","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135926071","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-28DOI: 10.22201/FE.01851667P.2021.318.79252
Vázquez Muñoz, J. Alberto
ABSTRACT Based on Keynes’ arguments, this paper aims to show that, even assuming an equilibrated primary fiscal balance, it can be possible to use fiscal policy to stabilize the equilibrium output, increase the output growth rate and disposable income, and relax the external constraint on growth. Our theoretical arguments are empirically tested for the case of Mexico. As shown, after the debt crisis of the last century, Mexican policymakers maintained a primary balance equilibrium rule. However, a significant public expenditure reduction was implemented, primarily concentrated on public investment, which has negatively affected economic growth and the trade balance as a percentage of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). We argue that it is necessary to increase public revenues, mainly through a tax reform, to implement an investment socialization program. SOCIALIZACION DE INVERSIONES Y REFORMA TRIBUTARIA: EL CASO MEXICANO, 1950-2020 RESUMEN Con base en los argumentos de Keynes, este articulo tiene como objetivo mostrar que, incluso asumiendo un balance primario equilibrado, es posible utilizar la politica fiscal para estabilizar el producto de equilibrio, aumentar la tasa de crecimiento, el ingreso disponible y relajar la restriccion externa al crecimiento. Nuestros argumentos teoricos se evaluan para el caso de Mexico. Como se muestra, despues de la crisis de deuda del siglo pasado, el gobierno mantuvo la regla del balance primario equilibrado. Sin embargo, tambien implemento una reduccion del gasto publico, en particular de la inversion publica, lo que ha afectado de forma negativa a la tasa de crecimiento y al saldo de la balanza comercial como porcentaje del producto interno bruto (PIB). Por lo tanto, es necesario incrementar los ingresos publicos, de forma principal, a traves de una reforma tributaria e implementar un programa de socializacion de la inversion.
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Pub Date : 2021-09-28DOI: 10.22201/FE.01851667P.2021.318.79985
M. A. R. Ríos, Josué García Veiga
RESUMEN En menos de dos generaciones la Republica Popular China se convirtio en una superpotencia industrial y en la segunda economia del mundo. Las cadenas globales de valor transformaron a la economia china y esta a su vez las transformo, produciendo un cambio en la estructura mundial. La simbiosis economica con Estados Unidos (EE. UU.) ha sido el eje de esos procesos, en torno a los cuales concurre la codependencia tecnologica, la aceleracion de la innovacion a traves del diseno modular y la formacion de mercados globales de tecnologia. El pasaje a la etapa de bajo crecimiento mundial puso en tension la referida relacion, poniendo al descubierto la desconcentracion de la hegemonia estadounidense. Estas tensiones han trasformado la relacion conductiva en un conflicto entre ambas superpotencias. El motivo real de dicho conflicto es la resistencia de EE. UU. a adaptarse a las implicaciones de la presencia china en el mundo. TECHNOLOGY, INDUSTRY AND MARKETS IN THE UNITED STATES-PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA CONFRONTATION ABSTRACT In less than two generations, the People’s Republic of China became an industrial superpower and the world’s second largest economy. Global value chains transformed the Chinese economy, which in turn transformed them, bringing about a change in the global structure. The economic symbiosis between China and the United States has been the axis of these processes, which have involved technological co-dependence, the acceleration of innovation through modular design and the creation of global technology markets. The transition to the stage of low world growth put a strain on this relationship, exposing the deconcentrating of US hegemony. These tensions have transformed the conductive relationship into a conflict between the two superpowers. The real reason for this conflict is the US resistance to adapt to the implications of China’s presence in the world.
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