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Drivers of moral hazard in banks 银行道德风险的驱动因素
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-12-12 DOI: 10.1556/032.2023.00043
Željko Jović
The objective of this research is to identify factors that determine the moral hazard in banks by using discrete choice models (probit and logit regression). A specially constructed indicator was used to quantitatively assess moral hazard as the average difference between the better rating of a client in a bank and the most conservative rating of the same client in the banking sector. This is an example where moral hazard manifests itself as the tendency of management in banks to underestimate credit risk. The results showed that state-owned banks and foreign privately-owned banks with evident problems at the level of their headquarters had higher values of this quantitative indicator of moral hazard. Also, banks whose financial result and capital are highly sensitive to a small increase in non-performing loans, as well as banks that at any time in the observed period had a problem with meeting regulatory capital requirements, showed a greater propensity to moral hazard, as measured by this indicator. In the above cases, in the absence of quality corporate governance, management in banks tends to show performance better than it actually is. The obtained results for Serbia in comparison with the previous research give the possibility to quantitatively confirm additional specific factors important for explaining moral hazard (composite variable of the type of ownership and capital restrictions, variables that perform only the transmission of certain forms of management behaviour, size, capital and profit sensitivity, credit risk level, etc.), in addition to the common factors of moral hazard, such as the type of ownership in the bank, capital restrictions, etc.
本研究的目的是利用离散选择模型(probit 和 logit 回归)确定银行道德风险的决定因素。我们使用了一个专门构建的指标来定量评估道德风险,即银行中客户较好评级与银行业中同一客户最保守评级之间的平均差。这是道德风险表现为银行管理层倾向于低估信贷风险的一个例子。研究结果表明,总部存在明显问题的国有银行和外国私有银行的道德风险量化指标值较高。此外,财务结果和资本对不良贷款的小幅增加高度敏感的银行,以及在观察期内任何时候在满足监管资本要求方面存在问题的银行,也表现出更高的道德风险倾向(以该指标衡量)。在上述情况下,由于缺乏高质量的公司治理,银行管理层往往会表现出比实际情况更好的业绩。塞尔维亚的研究结果与以前的研究结果相比,除了银行所有权类型、资本限制等道德风险的常见因素外,还可以从数量上确认对解释道德风险有重要意义的其他具体因素(所有权类型和资本限制的综合变量、只传播某些形式的管理行为的变量、规模、资本和利润敏感性、信贷风险水平等)。
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引用次数: 0
An investigation of the influencing factors of value added tax collection effectiveness in EU Member States 欧盟成员国增值税征收效率影响因素调查
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-12-12 DOI: 10.1556/032.2023.00045
Lóránd-István Králik, Erzsebe Szasz
Tax evasion is reducing the revenues of public budgets of many European Union (EU) Member States (MS). To improve the effectiveness of tax collection, during the last decade authorities in several MS have taken measures to reduce the value added tax (VAT) gap (i.e., revenue received as a percentage of theoretical liability). In the Central and Eastern European region, VAT gap reduction measures have been implemented effectively in Hungary and Poland, whereas in Romania the effectiveness of these measures is very low: Romania has been the worst-performing EU MS in collecting VAT for more than 10 years. Our study analyses the factors influencing this VAT gap. Our analysis relied mainly on a fixed effects panel regression model, using for a balanced panel an individual and time fixed-effects with cluster-robust standard errors model, and for the unbalanced panel the fixed-effects regression with individual-specific slopes. Our results show that the size of the VAT gap is primarily influenced by five variables: the transparency index, the tax collection ratio, the law enforcement index, the VAT revenues ratio and the digitisation index.
逃税正在减少许多欧盟成员国(MS)的公共预算收入。为了提高税收效率,在过去十年中,一些成员国当局已采取措施减少增值税差距(即税收收入占理论债务的百分比)。在中欧和东欧地区,匈牙利和波兰有效地实施了减少增值税差距的措施,而在罗马尼亚,这些措施的有效性非常低:十多年来,罗马尼亚一直是征收增值税方面表现最差的欧盟成员国。我们的研究分析了影响增值税差距的因素。我们的分析主要依赖于固定效应面板回归模型,对于平衡面板,我们使用了带有聚类标准误差的个人和时间固定效应模型,对于非平衡面板,我们使用了带有特定个人斜率的固定效应回归模型。我们的研究结果表明,增值税差距的大小主要受五个变量的影响:透明度指数、税收比率、执法指数、增值税收入比率和数字化指数。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluating the economic freedom of countries: An application of grey factor analysis 评估各国的经济自由度:灰色因素分析法的应用
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-12-12 DOI: 10.1556/032.2023.00042
Deniz Koçak, Abdulkerim Çalişkan
Economic freedom is crucial in determining policies for economic performance of nations and monitoring changes in the international economic order. Evaluating economic freedom requires the use of multiple indicators related to each other. Traditional statistical analyses used as an evaluation tool are often constrained by the probability distribution of indicators or sample size. To overcome these shortcomings, this paper uses grey factor analysis (GFA) to evaluate the economic freedom of countries. GFA can be used with multiple interrelated indicators without requirements about the probability distributions or sample size. The absolute degree of grey incidence matrix is used instead of the correlation matrix in factor analysis and GFA integrates the advantages of grey system theory into factor analysis. The analysis covers data for 2010 and 2020 about 20 economic freedom indicators in 36 selected countries. Two factors explain a significant part of the variance for both years. The scores for countries were obtained using the explained variance ratio as a weight. Our results show that GFA provides more accurate results than traditional statistical analyses.
经济自由对于确定国家经济运行政策和监测国际经济秩序的变化至关重要。评估经济自由度需要使用相互关联的多个指标。作为评估工具的传统统计分析往往受到指标概率分布或样本量的限制。为了克服这些缺陷,本文采用灰色因子分析(GFA)来评估各国的经济自由度。灰色因子分析可用于多个相互关联的指标,而无需考虑概率分布或样本量。在因子分析中使用灰色发生矩阵的绝对度代替相关矩阵,GFA 将灰色系统理论的优势融入到因子分析中。分析涵盖 2010 年和 2020 年 36 个选定国家的 20 个经济自由度指标数据。两个因子解释了这两年的很大一部分方差。以解释方差比作为权重,得出了各国的得分。我们的结果表明,与传统的统计分析相比,GFA 能提供更准确的结果。
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引用次数: 0
Bitcoin: The nexus between regulation and recognition 比特币:监管与认可之间的联系
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-12-12 DOI: 10.1556/032.2023.00046
Alper Uyumaz, Enku Tensay Woldemaryam
The article analyses the current issues contributing to the volatility of Bitcoin as the reliability of this new technology diminishes, leading to increased unpredictability of its value. Legal efforts and literature regarding Bitcoin have primarily focused on protecting society from the illegal use of this digital technology, with little emphasis on integrating it as an asset. However, this article proposes that countries adopt Bitcoin-related legislation, incorporating recognition and regulation clauses to transform Bitcoin into a stable, less volatile and functional digital asset. In the context of legal history, primary legal domains, such as contracts, family, trade and others, have been integrated through recognition and regulation processes. Therefore, we argue that adopting Bitcoin-specific legislation that recognizes this new technology while comprehensively regulating the associated risks would enhance the coin's stability and reduce volatility, ultimately increasing trust among digital investors and users.
文章分析了当前导致比特币波动的问题,因为这种新技术的可靠性降低,导致比特币价值的不可预测性增加。有关比特币的法律努力和文献主要集中在保护社会免受非法使用这种数字技术,而很少强调将其作为一种资产。然而,本文建议各国通过与比特币相关的立法,纳入承认和监管条款,将比特币转变为稳定、波动较小和实用的数字资产。在法律史上,合同、家庭、贸易等主要法律领域都是通过承认和监管程序进行整合的。因此,我们认为,通过专门针对比特币的立法,在承认这项新技术的同时,全面规范相关风险,将增强比特币的稳定性,降低波动性,最终增加数字投资者和用户之间的信任。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of investment and R&D expenditures on company performance in the industry 4.0 era 工业 4.0 时代投资和研发支出对公司业绩的影响
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-12-12 DOI: 10.1556/032.2023.00044
J. Šimáková, T. Pražák
This paper aims to evaluate the influence of investment and R&D expenditures on the performance of large companies that are headquartered in the Europe using regression analysis of the generalized method of moments. The independent control variables are GDP per capita and the interest rate represented by the yield of 10-year state bonds. The sample period is 2010–2018. Our result shows that the growth of R&D expenditures and investments negatively affected the profitability ratios of the firms in the year of implementation. While concentrating on the macroeconomic control variables, the results support an assumption about the positive effects of GDP on the majority of the net income, ROA and ROE estimates. On the other hand, negative effects of interest rates were found.
本文旨在利用广义矩方法的回归分析,评估投资和研发支出对总部设在欧洲的大型公司业绩的影响。独立控制变量为人均 GDP 和以 10 年期国家债券收益率为代表的利率。样本期为 2010-2018 年。结果表明,研发支出和投资的增长对实施当年企业的盈利率产生了负面影响。在集中研究宏观经济控制变量时,结果支持了国内生产总值对大部分净收入、投资回报率和投资收益率估计值产生正向影响的假设。另一方面,利率产生了负面影响。
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引用次数: 0
Endogenous money, soft budget constraint and the banking regulation 内生货币、软预算约束与银行监管
4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-11-03 DOI: 10.1556/032.2023.00036
István Ábel, Katalin Mérő
Abstract A key observation of the endogenous money theory is that banks create deposits (money) by lending. This means that banks apparently face soft budget constraint in responding to demand for credit. However, there are several limiting factors, which can make the banks' money creation somewhat constrained, and can thus harden their budget constraint. Such factors include the need to preserve banks' profitability and the bank regulations (the capital and liquidity requirements). Previous literature on soft budget constraint (SBC) in banking mentioned government bailouts, central banks lender-of-last-resort policies, or the poorly informed depositors who over-finance banks, as reasons for the SBC for banks. Taking the endogenous money theory as a starting point, we use a different approach. We analyze whether the tools that aimed to keep the bank's budget constrain hard are appropriate for this purpose. Our analysis, as well as lessons from several recent bank crisis episodes suggest, that under current banking regulation SBC is an inherent feature of banking.
内生性货币理论的一个重要观点是,银行通过放贷创造存款(货币)。这意味着银行在应对信贷需求时显然面临软预算约束。然而,有几个限制因素,可以使银行的货币创造多少受到限制,从而可以加强他们的预算约束。这些因素包括需要保持银行的盈利能力和银行监管(资本和流动性要求)。以前关于银行软预算约束(SBC)的文献提到政府救助,中央银行的最后贷款人政策,或者不知情的存款人过度融资银行,作为银行软预算约束的原因。以内生货币理论为出发点,我们采用了一种不同的方法。我们分析了旨在保持银行预算约束的工具是否适合于这一目的。我们的分析以及最近几次银行危机事件的教训表明,在当前的银行监管下,SBC是银行业的固有特征。
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引用次数: 0
The global conditions of China's economic development: How does globalisation affect China in the context of Kornai's Frankenstein metaphor? 中国经济发展的全球条件:在科尔奈的科学怪人比喻背景下,全球化如何影响中国?
4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-11-03 DOI: 10.1556/032.2023.00040
Miklós Losoncz
Abstract The objective of this study is to identify how globalisation influences China and how China affects globalisation in the context of János Kornai's Frankenstein metaphor. Kornai (2019) felt moral responsibility for unwillingly contributing with his advice in the 1980s to the birth of a modern version of Frankenstein, the Monster which his creators could not control. A crucial guiding principle of this paper is how the US and the advanced democratic economies can respond to Kornai's dilemma and reconcile the diverging requirements of economic interests with national security priorities. There is a research gap in the systematic mapping of the external economic environment on China's development. The primary conclusion of this paper is that China is less dependent on the rest of the world than the world on China. As the de-risking concept suggests, trade restrictions and domestic industrial policy measures focused on a narrow range of strategic sectors should be combined with unlimited trade and cooperation in the remaining non-strategic sectors. This study's conceptual and methodological framework can be used to analyse the relationship between advanced democratic economies and autocratic regimes in Kornai's Frankenstein dilemma.
摘要本研究的目的是在János科尔奈的弗兰肯斯坦隐喻的背景下,确定全球化如何影响中国以及中国如何影响全球化。科尔奈(2019)觉得自己有道德责任,因为他在20世纪80年代不情愿地为现代版弗兰肯斯坦的诞生做出了贡献,弗兰肯斯坦是他的创造者无法控制的怪物。本文的一个关键指导原则是,美国和发达的民主经济体如何应对科尔奈的困境,并协调经济利益与国家安全优先事项的不同要求。外部经济环境对中国经济发展的系统映射研究还存在空白。本文的主要结论是,中国对世界其他地区的依赖程度低于世界对中国的依赖程度。正如去风险概念所表明的那样,针对少数战略部门的贸易限制和国内产业政策措施应与其余非战略部门的无限制贸易与合作相结合。本研究的概念和方法框架可用于分析科尔奈弗兰肯斯坦困境中发达民主经济与专制政权之间的关系。
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引用次数: 0
“Celestial” snapshots: Moral economic revisitations of János Kornai's the socialist system “天国”快照:János科尔奈社会主义制度的道德经济重访
4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-11-03 DOI: 10.1556/032.2023.00039
Zsófia Hajnal
Abstract Significant parts of the work of the great economist and economic visionary János Kornai function as a magnifying glass in economic theory, philosophy and history. Kornai examined economic systems and system-mixes with substantial details, for then being able to focus his audiences' attention on the most relevant and critical aspects of them. One of Kornai's masterpieces, The Socialist System – a book which recently passed its 30-year publishing anniversary – is such a political economy lens on communism. I am attempting a concise conversion of this magnifying glass, to apply a Galileian metaphor, into an economic telescope. In other words, I am adding another economic lens – that of moral economics – to the Kornaian viewpoints. In a short analysis going through various dimensions of The Socialist System , I am coupling Kornai's thoughts with moral economic ideas, both from the classical and the contemporary moral economy streams. The goal with this exercise of respectfully refreshing a toolkit and style of economic analysis is to then gaze into, and partially describe a potential multitude, or spectra of economic systems, which may manifest in econodiversity.
伟大的经济学家和经济远见者János科尔奈的著作的重要部分在经济理论、哲学和历史上起着放大镜的作用。科尔奈考察了经济体系和系统混合的大量细节,以便能够将他的听众的注意力集中在最相关和最关键的方面。科尔奈的代表作之一《社会主义制度》(The Socialist System)——最近刚过了出版30周年——就是这样一个从政治经济学角度观察共产主义的作品。用伽利略的比喻来说,我正试图把这个放大镜简洁地转换成一个经济望远镜。换句话说,我是在为科尔奈派的观点添加另一个经济学视角——道德经济学视角。在对《社会主义制度》的各个维度进行的简短分析中,我将科尔奈的思想与来自古典和当代道德经济学流派的道德经济学思想结合起来。这种恭敬地更新经济分析工具和风格的练习的目标是,然后凝视并部分描述可能在经济多样性中表现出来的潜在群体或经济系统的光谱。
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引用次数: 0
The connection between growth imperative of monetary production economies, the realization problem and Kornai's surplus economy 货币生产经济的增长必要性、实现问题与科尔奈剩余经济的关系
4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-11-03 DOI: 10.1556/032.2023.00037
Zsolt Gilányi
Abstract Kornai challenged not only the dominant economic views of the socialist system, but also those of market economies. The former brought him fame, and the latter remained, so to speak, his scientific testament. He studied the systemic properties of different economic systems through the analytical grid of the sign of aggregate excess supply, which defined three categories: shortage economies, equilibrium economies and surplus economies. In this paper, we show that business plans postulated with the aim of realizing strictly positive net retained profits in nominal terms exclude equilibrium economies; these business plans imply a surplus economy. This definition of the business plan makes it possible to combine seemingly disparate results from different parts of the economic literature. An economy in which business plans are the rule and no economic agent can run a permanent negative budget is a surplus economy, which manifests itself in the phenomena of both growth imperative and realization problem. In short, all these phenomena are the manifestations of the same essence: the working of the business plans.
科尔奈不仅挑战了社会主义制度的主流经济观,也挑战了市场经济的主流经济观。前者给他带来了名声,后者可以说是他的科学见证。他通过总过剩供给符号的分析网格研究了不同经济系统的系统特性,并将其定义为短缺经济、均衡经济和剩余经济三类。在本文中,我们证明了以实现名义上严格正的净留存利润为目标的商业计划排除了均衡经济;这些商业计划意味着盈余经济。商业计划的这一定义使得将来自经济文献不同部分的看似不同的结果结合起来成为可能。一个以商业计划为规则,没有经济主体可以长期运行负预算的经济体是盈余经济体,它表现为增长的必要性和实现的问题。总之,所有这些现象都是同一个本质的表现:商业计划的运作。
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引用次数: 0
Can János Kornai's oeuvre be continued? János科尔奈的作品还能继续吗?
4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-11-03 DOI: 10.1556/032.2023.00028
Péter Mihályi
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引用次数: 0
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Acta Oeconomica
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