Pub Date : 2026-06-01Epub Date: 2026-02-11DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107340
Gedeão Locks , Hiram Beltrán-Sánchez
In this paper, we combine Census data with death records to examine the relationship between income inequality and race-specific mortality across 5,565 municipalities in Brazil. We find that overall income inequality is strongly associated with Non-White mortality but not with White mortality. To understand this disparity, we decompose the Gini coefficient and find that the racial income gap accounts for 14% of overall income inequality. Using an Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition, we show that 79% of the racial income gap is explained by differences in education between Whites and Non-Whites. Finally, we document that the residual (structural) component of the racial income gap is strongly associated with Non-White male mortality, particularly homicides at young ages. Our results imply that closing schooling gaps alone will not eliminate racial health disparities in Brazil.
{"title":"Beyond overall income inequality: Racial income gaps and health disparities","authors":"Gedeão Locks , Hiram Beltrán-Sánchez","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107340","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107340","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, we combine Census data with death records to examine the relationship between income inequality and race-specific mortality across 5,565 municipalities in Brazil. We find that overall income inequality is strongly associated with Non-White mortality but not with White mortality. To understand this disparity, we decompose the Gini coefficient and find that the racial income gap accounts for 14% of overall income inequality. Using an Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition, we show that 79% of the racial income gap is explained by differences in education between Whites and Non-Whites. Finally, we document that the residual (structural) component of the racial income gap is strongly associated with Non-White male mortality, particularly homicides at young ages. Our results imply that closing schooling gaps alone will not eliminate racial health disparities in Brazil.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"202 ","pages":"Article 107340"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146192980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-06-01Epub Date: 2026-02-07DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108951
Shangze Dai , Xinde James Ji
Automation technologies enhance production efficiency, offering potential for sustainable development. Yet, by deepening economic dependence on inherently emission-intensive capital investment, automation may inadvertently increase carbon emissions in economies with transforming industrial and production structure. We investigate this hypothesis first through a conceptual framework incorporating heterogeneous production and industrial components. We then test this using panel data from China's second-level administrative (prefecture) units from 2007 to 2021, estimating both short-run and medium-run effects using fixed-effects and long-difference estimators. Results suggest that automation technology, measured by per capita patents, is associated with increased carbon intensity. This positive effect persists over the short- to medium-term, indicating limited mitigation through structural adaptation. This persistence highlights the inertia of emission structures even amid technological progress. The impact is larger in western and industrial regions, reflecting regional disparities in industrial composition and adaptive capacity. We further examine four mediating channels that reflect capital dependence—relative marginal productivity of capital, capital misallocation, per capita capital stock, and temporary migration—and further conduct sectoral regressions to capture heterogeneity across industrial structures. Together, these analyses reveal that capital dependence and structural change to be important channels through which the automation‑carbon intensity relationship manifests, which reveals complex environmental trade-offs from automation. Overall, the findings provide new evidence that automation may generate unintended environmental costs, calling for policy coordination between industrial upgrading and decarbonization strategies.
{"title":"Unintended carbon cost of automation technology in transforming economies: The role of capital dependence and structure change","authors":"Shangze Dai , Xinde James Ji","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108951","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108951","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Automation technologies enhance production efficiency, offering potential for sustainable development. Yet, by deepening economic dependence on inherently emission-intensive capital investment, automation may inadvertently increase carbon emissions in economies with transforming industrial and production structure. We investigate this hypothesis first through a conceptual framework incorporating heterogeneous production and industrial components. We then test this using panel data from China's second-level administrative (prefecture) units from 2007 to 2021, estimating both short-run and medium-run effects using fixed-effects and long-difference estimators. Results suggest that automation technology, measured by per capita patents, is associated with increased carbon intensity. This positive effect persists over the short- to medium-term, indicating limited mitigation through structural adaptation. This persistence highlights the inertia of emission structures even amid technological progress. The impact is larger in western and industrial regions, reflecting regional disparities in industrial composition and adaptive capacity. We further examine four mediating channels that reflect capital dependence—relative marginal productivity of capital, capital misallocation, per capita capital stock, and temporary migration—and further conduct sectoral regressions to capture heterogeneity across industrial structures. Together, these analyses reveal that capital dependence and structural change to be important channels through which the automation‑carbon intensity relationship manifests, which reveals complex environmental trade-offs from automation. Overall, the findings provide new evidence that automation may generate unintended environmental costs, calling for policy coordination between industrial upgrading and decarbonization strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"244 ","pages":"Article 108951"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146135186","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-06-01Epub Date: 2026-02-12DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107342
Margherita Squarcina, Juliane Hänsch, Florena M. Montoya Cepeda, Magdalena Pallauf, Bruno Paz, Jonas Stehl, Jasmin Wehner, Meike Wollni
Existing measures of resilience focus on specific food system components, neglecting the complexity of the whole system. We propose a measure of farm-level resilience that encompasses three dimensions of a food system: economic profitability, environmental sustainability, and adequate nutrition. To empirically estimate the proposed model, we combine longitudinal household-level data from Malawi, Tanzania, and Nigeria with GIS data and macro-level indicators. We define resilience as a normative condition using a probabilistic moment-based approach following Cissé & Barrett (2018). To aggregate the probabilities across different dimensions into a single index of resilience, we employ and compare two different methods: Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and the Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model. Our findings indicate an overall increase in the resilience of farm households over time, with improvements in Nigeria and Tanzania. Clear trade-offs are evident across the various domains of the food system. Both proposed resilience indexes perform well when analyzed across different shocks and alternative specifications. Resilience tends to support improvements in certain dimensions without undermining others. The comparison between the two methods indicates a preference for the simpler PCA-based approach to measuring farm households’ resilience using a food system approach. Our findings underline the need to broaden our focus beyond individual aspects of resilience to achieve sustainable food systems.
{"title":"Developing a multidimensional resilience index for farm households: A food system approach","authors":"Margherita Squarcina, Juliane Hänsch, Florena M. Montoya Cepeda, Magdalena Pallauf, Bruno Paz, Jonas Stehl, Jasmin Wehner, Meike Wollni","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107342","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107342","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Existing measures of resilience focus on specific food system components, neglecting the complexity of the whole system. We propose a measure of farm-level resilience that encompasses three dimensions of a food system: economic profitability, environmental sustainability, and adequate nutrition. To empirically estimate the proposed model, we combine longitudinal household-level data from Malawi, Tanzania, and Nigeria with GIS data and macro-level indicators. We define resilience as a normative condition using a probabilistic moment-based approach following <span><span>Cissé & Barrett (2018)</span></span>. To aggregate the probabilities across different dimensions into a single index of resilience, we employ and compare two different methods: Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and the Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model. Our findings indicate an overall increase in the resilience of farm households over time, with improvements in Nigeria and Tanzania. Clear trade-offs are evident across the various domains of the food system. Both proposed resilience indexes perform well when analyzed across different shocks and alternative specifications. Resilience tends to support improvements in certain dimensions without undermining others. The comparison between the two methods indicates a preference for the simpler PCA-based approach to measuring farm households’ resilience using a food system approach. Our findings underline the need to broaden our focus beyond individual aspects of resilience to achieve sustainable food systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"202 ","pages":"Article 107342"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146193124","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-06-01Epub Date: 2026-02-12DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2026.102811
Sourav Das , Patrick Hufschmidt , Fabian Mankat , Konstantinos Theocharopoulos
This paper examines Political Budget Cycles in federal systems, focusing on how a central incumbent allocates discretionary transfers across states in response to electoral incentives. We develop a theoretical model predicting that average discretionary transfers increase during federal election periods. While swing states consistently receive higher transfers due to their electoral competitiveness, the election-period increase is larger for non-swing states. This occurs because non-swing states are targeted primarily during federal elections: allocating transfers to them in state elections is not advantageous for the federal incumbent, as it has little effect on the probability of winning those state elections. To test these predictions, we compile a panel dataset of Indian states from 2006 to 2022. Using fixed effects specifications, we find evidence consistent with the theoretical model: discretionary transfers are significantly higher in federal election periods, swing states receive more discretionary transfers in non-election periods, and the election-period increase in discretionary transfers is more pronounced for non-swing states.
{"title":"Political budget cycles in federal systems: The case of India","authors":"Sourav Das , Patrick Hufschmidt , Fabian Mankat , Konstantinos Theocharopoulos","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2026.102811","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2026.102811","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines Political Budget Cycles in federal systems, focusing on how a central incumbent allocates discretionary transfers across states in response to electoral incentives. We develop a theoretical model predicting that average discretionary transfers increase during federal election periods. While swing states consistently receive higher transfers due to their electoral competitiveness, the election-period increase is larger for non-swing states. This occurs because non-swing states are targeted primarily during federal elections: allocating transfers to them in state elections is not advantageous for the federal incumbent, as it has little effect on the probability of winning those state elections. To test these predictions, we compile a panel dataset of Indian states from 2006 to 2022. Using fixed effects specifications, we find evidence consistent with the theoretical model: discretionary transfers are significantly higher in federal election periods, swing states receive more discretionary transfers in non-election periods, and the election-period increase in discretionary transfers is more pronounced for non-swing states.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"93 ","pages":"Article 102811"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146189045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-06-01Epub Date: 2026-02-18DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115194
Sunil Malla , Govinda R. Timilsina , Martin P. Heger
The residential sector is a major energy consumer in Nepal, with cooking being a primary end-use. Unprocessed solid biomass fuels are the main cooking fuels, with about 60% of households relying on them. However, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), which is entirely imported, is becoming popular in urban areas. Electricity, mainly generated from hydropower—an environmentally friendly domestic energy source— was used for cooking in less than 1% of households. This paper analyzes the cost economics of different technologies and fuels, or their combinations, for household cooking across different topographies in Nepal from both private and social viewpoints. It shows that electricity is generally cheaper than fossil fuels but more expensive than biomass from a private perspective. When accounting for local air pollutant costs, especially PM2.5, electricity emerges as the most affordable option for cooking, except for biogas, which also has minimal external costs. The study further explores the broader economic advantages of replacing imported LPG with domestic hydropower for household cooking.
{"title":"Household cooking in Nepal: An economic analysis","authors":"Sunil Malla , Govinda R. Timilsina , Martin P. Heger","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115194","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115194","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The residential sector is a major energy consumer in Nepal, with cooking being a primary end-use. Unprocessed solid biomass fuels are the main cooking fuels, with about 60% of households relying on them. However, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), which is entirely imported, is becoming popular in urban areas. Electricity, mainly generated from hydropower—an environmentally friendly domestic energy source— was used for cooking in less than 1% of households. This paper analyzes the cost economics of different technologies and fuels, or their combinations, for household cooking across different topographies in Nepal from both private and social viewpoints. It shows that electricity is generally cheaper than fossil fuels but more expensive than biomass from a private perspective. When accounting for local air pollutant costs, especially PM<sub>2.5</sub>, electricity emerges as the most affordable option for cooking, except for biogas, which also has minimal external costs. The study further explores the broader economic advantages of replacing imported LPG with domestic hydropower for household cooking.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"213 ","pages":"Article 115194"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147386832","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-06-01Epub Date: 2026-03-05DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115108
Ming Wei , Boyu Yao , Michael R. Davidson
Resource adequacy of the power sector is coming under increasing stress globally due to rising electricity demand, extreme weather, and growth of variable renewable energy (VRE). Institutionally, many power sectors are transitioning from traditional central planning to some degree of market liberalization, with varied regulatory approaches to ensuring supply security. China's distinct medium- and long-term (MLT) agreement mechanisms are physical and characterized by a high degree of state intervention, with important implications for resource adequacy. This study investigates the power shortages that plagued China from 2020 to 2022, examining their extent, causes, and governmental responses. Quantitative simulations are conducted to analyze retrospectively the underlying institutional and operational factors behind the fall 2021 power crisis in Northeast China, relying on an extensive collection of publicly available datasets, ensuring transparency and reproducibility. The results highlight the rigidity of existing institutional arrangements, including MLT and capped electricity prices, in adapting to a decarbonizing energy system. Looking to 2030, China's post-crisis policy response—particularly the large-scale approval of new coal plants—may not fully resolve the power shortages if rigid institutional constraints on cross-provincial power trading persist. Instead, more flexible market and inter-provincial trading mechanisms can contribute to power sector reliability while managing growing VRE penetration.
{"title":"Resource adequacy under institutional constraints and the low-carbon energy transition in China","authors":"Ming Wei , Boyu Yao , Michael R. Davidson","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115108","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115108","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Resource adequacy of the power sector is coming under increasing stress globally due to rising electricity demand, extreme weather, and growth of variable renewable energy (VRE). Institutionally, many power sectors are transitioning from traditional central planning to some degree of market liberalization, with varied regulatory approaches to ensuring supply security. China's distinct medium- and long-term (MLT) agreement mechanisms are physical and characterized by a high degree of state intervention, with important implications for resource adequacy. This study investigates the power shortages that plagued China from 2020 to 2022, examining their extent, causes, and governmental responses. Quantitative simulations are conducted to analyze retrospectively the underlying institutional and operational factors behind the fall 2021 power crisis in Northeast China, relying on an extensive collection of publicly available datasets, ensuring transparency and reproducibility. The results highlight the rigidity of existing institutional arrangements, including MLT and capped electricity prices, in adapting to a decarbonizing energy system. Looking to 2030, China's post-crisis policy response—particularly the large-scale approval of new coal plants—may not fully resolve the power shortages if rigid institutional constraints on cross-provincial power trading persist. Instead, more flexible market and inter-provincial trading mechanisms can contribute to power sector reliability while managing growing VRE penetration.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"213 ","pages":"Article 115108"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147386865","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-06-01Epub Date: 2026-02-24DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115197
Moulirou Belem , Tibi Didier Zoungrana
This article aims to show the effect of road infrastructure on the use of butane gas by households in Burkina Faso, based on data from a survey on household living conditions conducted in 2021 by the INSD. To achieve this objective, the ordered logit model and the PSM method are used. The results show that access to road infrastructure increases the likelihood of households using butane gas as their primary or combined fuel source. In addition, income, price, household size, level of education, place of residence, access to electricity and the internet, and ownership of a stove have a significant impact on the likelihood of using butane gas. The results show that households that combine butane gas with other fuels and those that use it exclusively are willing to pay 495.83 CFA francs and 498.26 CFA francs per kilogram of butane gas, respectively. In terms of implications, the Burkinabe government should prioritize the targeted development of secondary road infrastructure and establish a system of targeted subsidies for low-income and rural households.
{"title":"Determinants of butane gas use by households in Burkina Faso: the role of road access","authors":"Moulirou Belem , Tibi Didier Zoungrana","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115197","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115197","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article aims to show the effect of road infrastructure on the use of butane gas by households in Burkina Faso, based on data from a survey on household living conditions conducted in 2021 by the INSD. To achieve this objective, the ordered logit model and the PSM method are used. The results show that access to road infrastructure increases the likelihood of households using butane gas as their primary or combined fuel source. In addition, income, price, household size, level of education, place of residence, access to electricity and the internet, and ownership of a stove have a significant impact on the likelihood of using butane gas. The results show that households that combine butane gas with other fuels and those that use it exclusively are willing to pay 495.83 CFA francs and 498.26 CFA francs per kilogram of butane gas, respectively. In terms of implications, the Burkinabe government should prioritize the targeted development of secondary road infrastructure and establish a system of targeted subsidies for low-income and rural households.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"213 ","pages":"Article 115197"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147386906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-06-01Epub Date: 2025-12-30DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101231
Haneen Abedalqader , Shao-Chi Chang
This paper aims to examine how trade policy uncertainty (TPU) affects firm-specific stock price crash risk and the extent to which corporate disclosures and governance can mitigate this vulnerability. Using a global panel database of publicly listed firms from 17 countries over the period 2010–2023, we find a positive and significant relationship between TPU and stock price crash risk, suggesting that firms exposed to trade policy shocks are more vulnerable to sudden negative price movements. As a result of opacity, firms with less transparent geographical segment disclosure tend to hoard bad news, suggesting that opacity compounds this tendency. Furthermore, we investigate how segment reporting complexity, supply chain concentration, and governance mechanisms serve as moderating factors. We find that high segment reporting complexity and supply chain concentration exacerbate the TPU-crash risk relationship by increasing operational and informational opacity. The TPU-induced crash risk decreases with strong institutional ownership and enhanced analyst coverage, but increases with high information asymmetry. In light of rising global trade policy uncertainty, geographical segment disclosure, operational structure, and governance are crucial to moderating firm-level financial fragility.
{"title":"Trade policy uncertainty and stock price crash risk: The role of geographic segment disclosure","authors":"Haneen Abedalqader , Shao-Chi Chang","doi":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101231","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101231","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper aims to examine how trade policy uncertainty (TPU) affects firm-specific stock price crash risk and the extent to which corporate disclosures and governance can mitigate this vulnerability. Using a global panel database of publicly listed firms from 17 countries over the period 2010–2023, we find a positive and significant relationship between TPU and stock price crash risk, suggesting that firms exposed to trade policy shocks are more vulnerable to sudden negative price movements. As a result of opacity, firms with less transparent geographical segment disclosure tend to hoard bad news, suggesting that opacity compounds this tendency. Furthermore, we investigate how segment reporting complexity, supply chain concentration, and governance mechanisms serve as moderating factors. We find that high segment reporting complexity and supply chain concentration exacerbate the TPU-crash risk relationship by increasing operational and informational opacity. The TPU-induced crash risk decreases with strong institutional ownership and enhanced analyst coverage, but increases with high information asymmetry. In light of rising global trade policy uncertainty, geographical segment disclosure, operational structure, and governance are crucial to moderating firm-level financial fragility.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46907,"journal":{"name":"Global Finance Journal","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101231"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145884277","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-06-01Epub Date: 2026-02-11DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2026.102448
Xiao Xu , Tao Pang , Hongjun Peng , Wenting Sun
In this paper, we study a forestry operator facing financial constraints and a financial institution that provides pledge financing, using the expected revenue rights from forestry carbon sinks and the management rights of transferred forestland as collateral. Output uncertainty in forestry carbon sinks and government subsidies are explicitly considered. The problem is formulated as a Stackelberg game. We derive the forestry operator’s optimal decisions on forest quality and the financial institution’s optimal pledge rate, and investigate the effects of key factors such as the probability of deforestation disasters and the carbon sink price. Numerical analyses are also presented. The main findings are as follows. First, infrequent deforestation disasters do not affect forest quality or the pledge rate, whereas frequent disasters reduce incentives for forest management and increase financing difficulty. Second, expanding the scale of forest management increases profits, but may lead to lower forest quality and a reduced pledge rate. Third, an increase in the economic value of transferred forestland management rights does not affect forest quality but reduces forestry profits. Moreover, the impact of this economic value on the pledge rate depends on the carbon sink price. Finally, when the probability of deforestation disasters is relatively low or very high, pledge financing can improve forest quality. In addition, under certain conditions, pledge financing can also enhance the forestry operator’s profits.
{"title":"Can forestry carbon sink pledge financing improve the quality of forest management?","authors":"Xiao Xu , Tao Pang , Hongjun Peng , Wenting Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.seps.2026.102448","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.seps.2026.102448","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, we study a forestry operator facing financial constraints and a financial institution that provides pledge financing, using the expected revenue rights from forestry carbon sinks and the management rights of transferred forestland as collateral. Output uncertainty in forestry carbon sinks and government subsidies are explicitly considered. The problem is formulated as a Stackelberg game. We derive the forestry operator’s optimal decisions on forest quality and the financial institution’s optimal pledge rate, and investigate the effects of key factors such as the probability of deforestation disasters and the carbon sink price. Numerical analyses are also presented. The main findings are as follows. First, infrequent deforestation disasters do not affect forest quality or the pledge rate, whereas frequent disasters reduce incentives for forest management and increase financing difficulty. Second, expanding the scale of forest management increases profits, but may lead to lower forest quality and a reduced pledge rate. Third, an increase in the economic value of transferred forestland management rights does not affect forest quality but reduces forestry profits. Moreover, the impact of this economic value on the pledge rate depends on the carbon sink price. Finally, when the probability of deforestation disasters is relatively low or very high, pledge financing can improve forest quality. In addition, under certain conditions, pledge financing can also enhance the forestry operator’s profits.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":22033,"journal":{"name":"Socio-economic Planning Sciences","volume":"105 ","pages":"Article 102448"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146175290","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-06-01Epub Date: 2026-01-21DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2026.102812
Mamadou Sacko
This paper examines the impact of the Charlie Hebdo attack on public attitudes toward Muslims and immigrants in Europe. Using the Unexpected Event During Survey Design methodology, we exploit the random timing of interviews in the European Social Survey to estimate causal effects. Our empirical strategy combines an event study design with region fixed effects, various matching approaches, and advanced machine learning estimators.
We find a significant but short-lived decline in positive attitudes toward immigrants and Muslims, concentrated in the first week after the attack and fading quickly thereafter. Yet, responses varied across countries: while attitudes deteriorated in the Czech Republic and Ireland, they remained stable or even improved in France and Germany.
To contextualize these heterogeneous reactions, we analyze contemporaneous media coverage of the attack in the four countries. Using Natural Language Processing tools, large language models and structural topic modeling, we examine media salience and framing as an indirect measure of public sentiment. The evidence shows that in countries with predominantly negative coverage (Czech Republic, Ireland), public attitudes shifted unfavorably, whereas in France and Germany, where narratives were more balanced or supportive, attitudes were more resilient. These findings highlight how terrorist violence can shape public opinion in the short run, while also highlighting the importance of media narratives as a mirror and amplifier of societal reactions.
{"title":"Media narratives and public attitudes toward immigrants and muslims: Evidence from the charlie hebdo attack","authors":"Mamadou Sacko","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2026.102812","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2026.102812","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the impact of the Charlie Hebdo attack on public attitudes toward Muslims and immigrants in Europe. Using the Unexpected Event During Survey Design methodology, we exploit the random timing of interviews in the European Social Survey to estimate causal effects. Our empirical strategy combines an event study design with region fixed effects, various matching approaches, and advanced machine learning estimators.</div><div>We find a significant but short-lived decline in positive attitudes toward immigrants and Muslims, concentrated in the first week after the attack and fading quickly thereafter. Yet, responses varied across countries: while attitudes deteriorated in the Czech Republic and Ireland, they remained stable or even improved in France and Germany.</div><div>To contextualize these heterogeneous reactions, we analyze contemporaneous media coverage of the attack in the four countries. Using Natural Language Processing tools, large language models and structural topic modeling, we examine media salience and framing as an indirect measure of public sentiment. The evidence shows that in countries with predominantly negative coverage (Czech Republic, Ireland), public attitudes shifted unfavorably, whereas in France and Germany, where narratives were more balanced or supportive, attitudes were more resilient. These findings highlight how terrorist violence can shape public opinion in the short run, while also highlighting the importance of media narratives as a mirror and amplifier of societal reactions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"93 ","pages":"Article 102812"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146078722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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