The 2023 John Bates Clark Medal of the American Economic Association was awarded to Gabriel Zucman, associate professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley for his fundamental contributions to the study of inequality and taxation. Through meticulous empirical work and creative methodological approaches, he has revealed key trends about the concentration of global wealth, the size and distribution of tax evasion, and the tax-saving strategies of multinational companies. These findings have had a profound impact on the academic literature and on global policy debates. He has shifted the way economic research is done by showing that measurement can have a large impact in our field and on the world, inspiring many younger scholars to follow in his footsteps.
{"title":"Gabriel Zucman: Winner of the 2023 Clark Medal","authors":"Emmanuel Saez","doi":"10.1257/jep.38.2.227","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.38.2.227","url":null,"abstract":"The 2023 John Bates Clark Medal of the American Economic Association was awarded to Gabriel Zucman, associate professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley for his fundamental contributions to the study of inequality and taxation. Through meticulous empirical work and creative methodological approaches, he has revealed key trends about the concentration of global wealth, the size and distribution of tax evasion, and the tax-saving strategies of multinational companies. These findings have had a profound impact on the academic literature and on global policy debates. He has shifted the way economic research is done by showing that measurement can have a large impact in our field and on the world, inspiring many younger scholars to follow in his footsteps.","PeriodicalId":15611,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Perspectives","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141032195","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The United States has an Economic Constitution, governing federal regulation, and explaining how to conduct regulatory impact analysis, with reference to quantification and monetization of the costs and benefits of proposed and final regulations. Known as OMB Circular A-4, the Economic Constitution of the United States was thoroughly revised in 2023, with new directions on behavioral economics and nudging; on discount rates and effects on future generations; on distributional effects and how to account for them; and on benefits and costs that are hard or impossible to quantify. The revised document leaves numerous open questions, involving (for example) the valuation of human life, the valuation of morbidity effects, and the value of the lives of children.
{"title":"The Economic Constitution of the United States","authors":"C. Sunstein","doi":"10.1257/jep.38.2.25","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.38.2.25","url":null,"abstract":"The United States has an Economic Constitution, governing federal regulation, and explaining how to conduct regulatory impact analysis, with reference to quantification and monetization of the costs and benefits of proposed and final regulations. Known as OMB Circular A-4, the Economic Constitution of the United States was thoroughly revised in 2023, with new directions on behavioral economics and nudging; on discount rates and effects on future generations; on distributional effects and how to account for them; and on benefits and costs that are hard or impossible to quantify. The revised document leaves numerous open questions, involving (for example) the valuation of human life, the valuation of morbidity effects, and the value of the lives of children.","PeriodicalId":15611,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Perspectives","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141038942","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The U.S. Census Bureau implemented a new disclosure control strategy for the 2020 Census that adds deliberate error to every population statistic for every geographic unit smaller than a state, including metropolitan areas, cities, and counties. This article traces the evolving rationale for the new procedures and assesses the impact of the 2020 disclosure control on data quality. The Census Bureau argues that the traditional disclosure controls used for the 2010 and earlier censuses revealed the confidential responses of millions of Americans. I argue that this claim is unsupported, and that there is no evidence that anyone's responses were compromised. The new disclosure control strategies introduce unnecessary error with no clear benefit; in fact, the new procedures may actually be less effective for protecting confidentiality than the procedures they replaced. I conclude with recommendations for minimizing disclosure risk while maximizing data utility in future censuses.
{"title":"When Privacy Protection Goes Wrong: How and Why the 2020 Census Confidentiality Program Failed","authors":"Steven Ruggles","doi":"10.1257/jep.38.2.201","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.38.2.201","url":null,"abstract":"The U.S. Census Bureau implemented a new disclosure control strategy for the 2020 Census that adds deliberate error to every population statistic for every geographic unit smaller than a state, including metropolitan areas, cities, and counties. This article traces the evolving rationale for the new procedures and assesses the impact of the 2020 disclosure control on data quality. The Census Bureau argues that the traditional disclosure controls used for the 2010 and earlier censuses revealed the confidential responses of millions of Americans. I argue that this claim is unsupported, and that there is no evidence that anyone's responses were compromised. The new disclosure control strategies introduce unnecessary error with no clear benefit; in fact, the new procedures may actually be less effective for protecting confidentiality than the procedures they replaced. I conclude with recommendations for minimizing disclosure risk while maximizing data utility in future censuses.","PeriodicalId":15611,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Perspectives","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141046327","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The US Congress uses economic and budgetary projections, cost estimates for proposed legislation, and other analyses provided by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) as part of its legislative process. CBO makes assessments based on an understanding of federal programs and revenue sources, reading the relevant research literature, analysis of data, and consultation with outside experts—and often relies on economic research. This article begins with a discussion of the role of the Congressional Budget Office and then discusses how economists could conduct research that would help inform the Congress by improving the quality of the analysis and parameter estimates that CBO uses. It gives overall context and specific examples in seven areas: credit and insurance, energy and the environment, health, labor, macroeconomics, national security, and taxes and transfers.
{"title":"How Economists Could Help Inform Economic and Budget Analysis Used by the US Congress","authors":"","doi":"10.1257/jep.38.2.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.38.2.3","url":null,"abstract":"The US Congress uses economic and budgetary projections, cost estimates for proposed legislation, and other analyses provided by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) as part of its legislative process. CBO makes assessments based on an understanding of federal programs and revenue sources, reading the relevant research literature, analysis of data, and consultation with outside experts—and often relies on economic research. This article begins with a discussion of the role of the Congressional Budget Office and then discusses how economists could conduct research that would help inform the Congress by improving the quality of the analysis and parameter estimates that CBO uses. It gives overall context and specific examples in seven areas: credit and insurance, energy and the environment, health, labor, macroeconomics, national security, and taxes and transfers.","PeriodicalId":15611,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Perspectives","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141044550","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Researchers and economic research were essential to the success of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission. For example, researchers submitted testimony, briefed commissioners, and spoke with our staff in recorded interviews. They also provided access to key data sources and helped us use them. Although we started our investigation barely one year after the height of the crisis, there was already a strong core of early, empirical research grappling with many of our key questions, such as why investors ran certain markets, why incentive problems pervaded securitization markets, and why risk management failed at so many large companies. We also benefited from the wealth of research exploring developments in financial markets leading up to the crisis. The process to build the research staff on a tight deadline was chaotic, and we needed people willing to work long hours, work on a team, and follow the evidence wherever it took us.
{"title":"The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission and Economic Research","authors":"Wendy Edelberg, Greg Feldberg","doi":"10.1257/jep.38.2.43","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.38.2.43","url":null,"abstract":"Researchers and economic research were essential to the success of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission. For example, researchers submitted testimony, briefed commissioners, and spoke with our staff in recorded interviews. They also provided access to key data sources and helped us use them. Although we started our investigation barely one year after the height of the crisis, there was already a strong core of early, empirical research grappling with many of our key questions, such as why investors ran certain markets, why incentive problems pervaded securitization markets, and why risk management failed at so many large companies. We also benefited from the wealth of research exploring developments in financial markets leading up to the crisis. The process to build the research staff on a tight deadline was chaotic, and we needed people willing to work long hours, work on a team, and follow the evidence wherever it took us.","PeriodicalId":15611,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Perspectives","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141025937","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The data privacy community generally agrees that government data should be more widely accessible, especially being of the people (data collected about them), by the people (collected and supported using taxpayer dollars), and for the people (providing public and social good). But what to protect in that data and how to do so are highly and intensely debated. This paper discusses the fundamental tradeoff between data privacy and data usefulness—and how determining an appropriate balance can be difficult. The paper also provides thoughts on what must be addressed to help shape the future of data privacy, make meaningful contributions to its policy debates, and ensure the responsible representation of people in data.
{"title":"Government Data of the People, by the People, for the People: Navigating Citizen Privacy Concerns","authors":"C. Bowen","doi":"10.1257/jep.38.2.181","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.38.2.181","url":null,"abstract":"The data privacy community generally agrees that government data should be more widely accessible, especially being of the people (data collected about them), by the people (collected and supported using taxpayer dollars), and for the people (providing public and social good). But what to protect in that data and how to do so are highly and intensely debated. This paper discusses the fundamental tradeoff between data privacy and data usefulness—and how determining an appropriate balance can be difficult. The paper also provides thoughts on what must be addressed to help shape the future of data privacy, make meaningful contributions to its policy debates, and ensure the responsible representation of people in data.","PeriodicalId":15611,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Perspectives","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141048602","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Many foundations decide how much and where to give based on their founders' personal precommitments to specific issues, geographies, and/or institutions. If a grantmaking organization instead wanted to select problems based on a general measure of impact per dollar spent, how should it approach this goal? What tools could it use to identify promising cause areas (climate change, education, or health, for example) or to compare grants that achieve different results? This paper focuses on an approach followed by the grantmaking organization Open Philanthropy for its “Global Health and Wellbeing” portfolio, with an emphasis on two key frameworks: equalizing marginal philanthropic returns, as well as importance, neglectedness, and tractability. It describes measurement and comparability under the first framework, and then applies the second framework to the example of reducing exposure to lead. It concludes by considering critiques and areas for improvement.
{"title":"Philanthropic Cause Prioritization","authors":"Emily Oehlsen","doi":"10.1257/jep.38.2.63","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.38.2.63","url":null,"abstract":"Many foundations decide how much and where to give based on their founders' personal precommitments to specific issues, geographies, and/or institutions. If a grantmaking organization instead wanted to select problems based on a general measure of impact per dollar spent, how should it approach this goal? What tools could it use to identify promising cause areas (climate change, education, or health, for example) or to compare grants that achieve different results? This paper focuses on an approach followed by the grantmaking organization Open Philanthropy for its “Global Health and Wellbeing” portfolio, with an emphasis on two key frameworks: equalizing marginal philanthropic returns, as well as importance, neglectedness, and tractability. It describes measurement and comparability under the first framework, and then applies the second framework to the example of reducing exposure to lead. It concludes by considering critiques and areas for improvement.","PeriodicalId":15611,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Perspectives","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141037109","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Benchmark models taught in undergraduate macro do not attribute any role for labor supply as an important determinant of macroeconomic outcomes. The first part of this paper documents three facts. First, differences in hours of work across OECD economies are large and imply large differences in GDP per capita. Second, there are large differences in the size of tax and transfer programs across countries, as proxied by differences in government revenues relative to the GDP. Third, these two outcomes are strongly negatively correlated. Taken together, these facts suggest an important role for labor supply in affecting macroeconomic outcomes. I conjecture that the reason why macro textbooks do not include a discussion of labor supply stems from a belief that labor supply elasticities are sufficiently small that even large differences in work incentives do not generate important macroeconomic effects. The second part of this paper argues that this belief is based on incorrect inference linking small elasticities for prime age male to small aggregate labor supply elasticities. The role of labor supply at the extensive margin plays a critical role in understanding this mistake in this inference.
本科宏观课程所讲授的基准模型并未将劳动力供给视为宏观经济结果的重要决定因素。本文第一部分记录了三个事实。首先，经合组织经济体的工作时间差异很大，这意味着人均国内生产总值的差异也很大。其次，各国税收和转移支付项目的规模存在巨大差异，这体现在政府收入相对于 GDP 的差异上。第三，这两种结果呈强烈的负相关。综合来看，这些事实表明劳动力供给在影响宏观经济结果方面发挥着重要作用。我猜想，宏观教科书中之所以没有包含对劳动力供给的讨论，是因为人们认为劳动力供给的弹性很小，即使工作激励存在巨大差异，也不会对宏观经济产生重要影响。本文的第二部分认为，这种看法是基于将壮年男性的小弹性与总的小劳动力供给弹性联系起来的错误推论。劳动力供给在广义边际中的作用对于理解这一推论中的错误起着至关重要的作用。
{"title":"Why Labor Supply Matters for Macroeconomics","authors":"Richard Rogerson","doi":"10.1257/jep.38.2.137","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.38.2.137","url":null,"abstract":"Benchmark models taught in undergraduate macro do not attribute any role for labor supply as an important determinant of macroeconomic outcomes. The first part of this paper documents three facts. First, differences in hours of work across OECD economies are large and imply large differences in GDP per capita. Second, there are large differences in the size of tax and transfer programs across countries, as proxied by differences in government revenues relative to the GDP. Third, these two outcomes are strongly negatively correlated. Taken together, these facts suggest an important role for labor supply in affecting macroeconomic outcomes. I conjecture that the reason why macro textbooks do not include a discussion of labor supply stems from a belief that labor supply elasticities are sufficiently small that even large differences in work incentives do not generate important macroeconomic effects. The second part of this paper argues that this belief is based on incorrect inference linking small elasticities for prime age male to small aggregate labor supply elasticities. The role of labor supply at the extensive margin plays a critical role in understanding this mistake in this inference.","PeriodicalId":15611,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Perspectives","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141045528","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article begins with an overview of the policy environment in the United States and abroad for skilled immigration, with a particular focus on “supply-driven” versus “demand-driven” systems. The overview emphasizes that firms play a central role in the skilled immigration process in most countries. I then survey the ample evidence that skilled immigrants have a strong positive effect on firm outcomes, followed by a discussion of the many margins of adjustment that firms have when their access to skilled immigrants is affected by national immigration policy. Finally, given such margins of adjustment and the importance of skilled immigrants to firms, I consider how the policies that affect skilled migration shape the global geography and quality of innovation. I conclude by discussing policy implications and open questions. In particular, I emphasize that evaluations of the impact of skilled immigration should not be constrained within borders: immigration flows and national immigration policies affect the global geography of innovation and investment.
{"title":"Skilled Immigrants, Firms, and the Global Geography of Innovation","authors":"Britta Glennon","doi":"10.1257/jep.38.1.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.38.1.3","url":null,"abstract":"This article begins with an overview of the policy environment in the United States and abroad for skilled immigration, with a particular focus on “supply-driven” versus “demand-driven” systems. The overview emphasizes that firms play a central role in the skilled immigration process in most countries. I then survey the ample evidence that skilled immigrants have a strong positive effect on firm outcomes, followed by a discussion of the many margins of adjustment that firms have when their access to skilled immigrants is affected by national immigration policy. Finally, given such margins of adjustment and the importance of skilled immigrants to firms, I consider how the policies that affect skilled migration shape the global geography and quality of innovation. I conclude by discussing policy implications and open questions. In particular, I emphasize that evaluations of the impact of skilled immigration should not be constrained within borders: immigration flows and national immigration policies affect the global geography of innovation and investment.","PeriodicalId":15611,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Perspectives","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139816240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Research on international migration and innovation relies heavily on inventor and patent data, with “migrant inventors” attracting a great deal of attention, especially for what concerns their role in easing the international transfer of knowledge. This hides the fact that many of them move to their host country before starting their inventive career or even before completing their education. We discuss the conceptual and practical difficulties that stand in the way of investigating other likely channels of influence of inventor’s migration on innovation, namely the easing of skill shortages and the increase of variety in inventive teams, firms, and location.
{"title":"Migration and Innovation: Learning from Patent and Inventor Data","authors":"Francesco Lissoni, Ernest Miguelez","doi":"10.1257/jep.38.1.27","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.38.1.27","url":null,"abstract":"Research on international migration and innovation relies heavily on inventor and patent data, with “migrant inventors” attracting a great deal of attention, especially for what concerns their role in easing the international transfer of knowledge. This hides the fact that many of them move to their host country before starting their inventive career or even before completing their education. We discuss the conceptual and practical difficulties that stand in the way of investigating other likely channels of influence of inventor’s migration on innovation, namely the easing of skill shortages and the increase of variety in inventive teams, firms, and location.","PeriodicalId":15611,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Perspectives","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139814673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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