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Estimating Dynamic Conditional Spread Densities to Optimise Daily Storage Trading of Electricity 估计动态条件扩散密度以优化每日电力存储交易
Pub Date : 2019-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3349105
E. Abramova, D. Bunn
This paper formulates dynamic density functions, based upon skewed-t and similar representations, to model and forecast electricity price spreads between different hours of the day. This supports an optimal day ahead storage and discharge schedule, and thereby facilitates a bidding strategy for a merchant arbitrage facility into the day-ahead auctions for wholesale electricity. The four latent moments of the density functions are dynamic and conditional upon exogenous drivers, thereby permitting the mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis of the densities to respond hourly to such factors as weather and demand forecasts. The best specification for each spread is selected based on the Pinball Loss function, following the closed form analytical solutions of the cumulative density functions. Those analytical properties also allow the calculation of risk associated with the spread arbitrages. From these spread densities, the optimal daily operation of a battery storage facility is determined.
本文基于偏t和类似的表示,建立了动态密度函数,对一天中不同时段之间的电价差进行建模和预测。这支持了最优的日前储能和放电计划,从而促进了商人套利设施在日前批发电力拍卖中的投标策略。密度函数的四个潜在矩是动态的,并且取决于外生驱动因素,因此允许密度的平均值、方差、偏度和峰度每小时对天气和需求预测等因素作出响应。根据累积密度函数的封闭形式解析解,根据弹球损失函数选择每个扩散的最佳规格。这些分析性质也允许计算与差价套利相关的风险。根据这些分布密度,确定了电池储能设施的最佳日常运行。
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引用次数: 2
Production Efficiency of Nodal and Zonal Pricing in Imperfectly Competitive Electricity Markets 不完全竞争电力市场中节点和区域定价的生产效率
Pub Date : 2019-02-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3644259
M. Sarfati, M. Hesamzadeh, P. Holmberg
Electricity markets employ different congestion management methods to handle the limited transmission capacity of the power system. This paper compares production efficiency and other aspects of nodal and zonal pricing. We consider two types of zonal pricing: zonal pricing with Available Transmission Capacity (ATC) and zonal pricing with Flow-Based Market Coupling (FBMC). We develop a mathematical model to study the imperfect competition under zonal pricing with FBMC. Zonal pricing with FBMC is employed in two stages, a day-ahead market stage and a re-dispatch stage. We show that the optimality conditions and market clearing conditions can be reformulated as a mixed integer linear program (MILP), which is straightforward to implement. Zonal pricing with ATC and nodal pricing is used as our benchmarks. The imperfect competition under zonal pricing with ATC and nodal pricing are also formulated as MILP models. All MILP models are demonstrated on 6-node and the modified IEEE 24-node systems. Our numerical results show that the zonal pricing with ATC results in large production inefficiencies due to the inc-dec game. Improving the representation of the transmission network as in the zonal pricing with FBMC mitigates the inc-dec game.
电力市场采用不同的拥塞管理方法来处理电力系统有限的传输容量。本文比较了节点定价和分区定价的生产效率和其他方面。我们考虑两种类型的分区定价:带可用输电容量的分区定价(ATC)和带基于流量的市场耦合的分区定价(FBMC)。建立了基于FBMC的区域定价不完全竞争的数学模型。区域定价采用FBMC分为两个阶段,即日前市场阶段和再调度阶段。我们证明了最优性条件和市场出清条件可以重新表述为一个混合整数线性规划(MILP),它易于实现。区域定价与空中交通管制和节点定价是我们的基准。并将带ATC和节点定价的分区不完全竞争模型表述为MILP模型。所有的MILP模型都在6节点和改进的IEEE 24节点系统上进行了验证。数值计算结果表明,基于ATC的分层定价会导致生产效率低下。在FBMC的区域定价中,改善输电网络的表示可以缓解incdec博弈。
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引用次数: 31
A Model-based Clustering Approach for Analyzing Energy-related Financial Literacy and Its Determinants 基于模型的聚类方法分析能源相关金融知识及其决定因素
Pub Date : 2019-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3328468
Nilkanth Kumar
Recent research highlights the role of consumer’s energy-related financial literacy in adoption of energy efficient household appliances in order to reduce the energy-efficiency gap within the household sector. The computation of an indicator for such a literacy measure has followed a somewhat less refined approach though. This paper demonstrates the use of a model-based clustering strategy in order to differentiate the population based on the level of energy-related financial literacy. Using a Swiss data with 6, 722 respondents, we are able to identify three latent groups that represent low, mid and high levels of literacy. We use this new measure within an ordered logit setting with the goal of explaining the determinants of the level of energy-related financial literacy and compare empirical results using classical indicators and approaches. The empirical findings suggest a significant gender-gap among the Swiss population, i.e. females, even those with university education, are less likely to possess a high level of energy-related financial literacy. Individuals who display strong concern for free-riding on their own energy reduction behavior, are also found to have higher odds of belonging to the low literacy group. The results show that it is possible to identify latent classes that have a general and intuitive meaning and provides support to the model-based clustering approach as a sophisticated alternative. This could be a useful approach when empirical researchers are interested in (attribute-based) latent groups of consumers. The identification of latent classes also provides a possibility to target consumers belonging to these classes with specific policy measures in order to increase their level of literacy.
最近的研究强调了消费者与能源有关的财务知识在采用节能家用电器方面的作用,以便缩小家庭部门的能源效率差距。不过,这种读写能力衡量指标的计算遵循了一种不太精确的方法。本文演示了基于模型的聚类策略的使用,以便根据与能源相关的金融知识水平区分人口。使用瑞士6,722名受访者的数据,我们能够确定三个潜在群体,分别代表低、中、高水平的读写能力。我们在有序logit设置中使用这种新措施,目的是解释与能源相关的金融素养水平的决定因素,并使用经典指标和方法比较实证结果。实证研究结果表明,瑞士人口中存在显著的性别差距,即女性,即使是受过大学教育的女性,也不太可能拥有与能源相关的高水平金融知识。研究还发现,那些对自己的节能行为表现出强烈关注的人,属于低文化水平群体的几率更高。结果表明,识别具有一般和直观含义的潜在类是可能的,并为基于模型的聚类方法作为一种复杂的替代方法提供了支持。当实证研究人员对(基于属性的)潜在消费者群体感兴趣时,这可能是一种有用的方法。对潜在阶层的识别也提供了一种可能性,以属于这些阶层的消费者为目标,采取具体的政策措施,以提高他们的识字水平。
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引用次数: 11
A Rapid Road to Employment? The Impacts of a Bus Rapid Transit System in Lima 快速就业之路?利马快速公交系统的影响
Pub Date : 2018-12-01 DOI: 10.18235/0001527
L. Scholl, Daniel F. Martinez, Oscar A. Mitnik, Daniel Oviedo, Patricia Yañez-Pagans
Despite the growing interest in and proliferation of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems around the world, their causal impacts on labor market outcomes remain unexplored. Reduced travel times for those who live near BRT stations or near feeder lines, may increase access to a wider array of job opportunities, potentially leading to increased rates of employment, access to higher quality (or formal) jobs, and increased labor hours and earnings. This paper assesses the effects of the Metropolitano, the BRT system in Lima (Peru), on individual-level job market outcomes. We rely on a difference-in-differences empirical strategy, based on comparing individuals who live close to the BRT system with a comparison group that lives farther from the system, before and after the system started to operate. We find large impacts on employment, hours worked and labor earnings for those individuals close to the BRT stations, but not for those who live close to the feeder lines. Despite the potential to connect poor populations, we find no evidence of impacts for populations living in lower income areas.
尽管全球对快速公交系统(BRT)的兴趣日益浓厚,但其对劳动力市场结果的因果影响仍未得到探讨。对于那些居住在BRT车站附近或支线附近的人来说,减少出行时间可能会增加获得更多工作机会的机会,从而有可能提高就业率,获得更高质量(或正式)的工作,并增加劳动时间和收入。本文评估了秘鲁利马的快速公交系统Metropolitano对个人层面就业市场结果的影响。我们依靠的是差异中之差的经验策略,基于比较住在BRT系统附近的个人和住在离系统较远的对照组,在系统开始运行之前和之后。我们发现,靠近BRT站点的个人对就业、工作时间和劳动收入的影响很大,但对那些住在支线附近的人没有影响。尽管有可能将贫困人口联系起来,但我们没有发现对低收入地区人口产生影响的证据。
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引用次数: 7
Do Shareholders Benefit from Green Bonds? 股东从绿色债券中受益吗?
Pub Date : 2018-11-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3259555
Dragon Yongjun Tang, Yupu Zhang
Abstract The green bond market has been growing rapidly worldwide since its debut in 2007. We present the first empirical study on the announcement returns and real effects of green bond issuance by firms in 28 countries during 2007–2017. After compiling a comprehensive international green bond dataset, we document that stock prices positively respond to green bond issuance. However, we do not find a consistently significant premium for green bonds, suggesting that the positive stock returns around green bond announcements are not fully driven by the lower cost of debt. Nevertheless, we show that institutional ownership, especially from domestic institutions, increases after the firm issues green bonds. Moreover, stock liquidity significantly improves upon the issuance of green bonds. Overall, our findings suggest that the firm's issuance of green bonds is beneficial to its existing shareholders.
绿色债券市场自2007年问世以来,在全球范围内迅速发展。本文首次对2007-2017年间28个国家的企业发行绿色债券的公告收益和实际效应进行了实证研究。在编制了一个全面的国际绿色债券数据集后,我们证明了股票价格对绿色债券发行的积极响应。然而,我们没有发现绿色债券的持续显著溢价,这表明绿色债券公告周围的正股票回报并非完全由较低的债务成本驱动。然而,我们发现,在企业发行绿色债券后,机构持股,特别是来自国内机构的持股,增加了。此外,发行绿色债券显著提高了股票流动性。总体而言,我们的研究结果表明,公司发行绿色债券对其现有股东有利。
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引用次数: 409
Financing the Response to Climate Change: The Pricing and Ownership of U.S. Green Bonds 应对气候变化的融资:美国绿色债券的定价和所有权
Pub Date : 2018-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3275327
Malcolm P. Baker, Daniel Bergstresser, George Serafeim, Jeffrey Wurgler
We study green bonds, which are bonds whose proceeds are used for environmentally sensitive purposes. After an overview of the U.S. corporate and municipal green bonds markets, we study pricing and ownership patterns using a simple framework that incorporates assets with nonpecuniary utility. As predicted, we find that green municipal bonds are issued at a premium to otherwise similar ordinary bonds. We also confirm that green bonds, particularly small or essentially riskless ones, are more closely held than ordinary bonds. These pricing and ownership effects are strongest for bonds that are externally certified as green.
我们研究绿色债券,即收益用于环境敏感目的的债券。在概述了美国公司和市政绿色债券市场之后,我们使用一个将资产与非货币效用结合起来的简单框架来研究定价和所有权模式。正如预测的那样,我们发现绿色市政债券的发行溢价高于其他类似的普通债券。我们还确认,绿色债券,特别是小型或基本上没有风险的债券,比普通债券更容易被投资者持有。这些定价和所有权效应对于外部认证为绿色的债券来说是最强的。
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引用次数: 282
Consumer Search and Automobile Dealer Co-Location 消费者搜索和汽车经销商共同定位
Pub Date : 2018-06-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2623208
C. Murry, Yiyi Zhou
Retailers co-locate with rivals to take advantage of economies of agglomeration even though co-location implies greater competition. Using data on all new car transactions registered in Ohio from 2007 to 2014, we estimate a structural model of consumer search for spatially dif- ferentiated products that explicitly captures the agglomeration and competition effects of retail co-location. Search frictions generate an average of $333 per car in dealer markups. Agglom- eration implies that dealer closures could harm incumbent co-located dealers, even though the incumbent dealers would face less competition. Our results inform the recent policy debate surrounding the massive downsizing of car retail networks and highlight the role of contagion in brick-and-mortar retailing.
零售商与竞争对手共同选址是为了利用集聚经济,尽管共同选址意味着更大的竞争。利用2007年至2014年在俄亥俄州注册的所有新车交易数据,我们估计了消费者对空间差异化产品搜索的结构模型,该模型明确捕捉了零售共址的集聚和竞争效应。搜索摩擦给经销商带来的平均每辆车333美元的加成。集聚意味着关闭经销商可能会损害现有的同地经销商,即使现有经销商面临的竞争会减少。我们的研究结果为最近围绕汽车零售网络大规模缩减的政策辩论提供了信息,并强调了实体零售中的传染作用。
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引用次数: 15
Diffusion of Green Innovations: The Role of Consumer Characteristics for Domestic Energy Storage Adoption 绿色创新的扩散:消费者特征对国内储能采用的作用
Pub Date : 2018-06-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3122235
Veronika Grimm, Sandra Kretschmer, S. Mehl
Against the background of a growing share of renewable energies and the ensuing fluctuations in electricity supply, domestic energy storage poses a promising option to foster flexible electricity demand and grid-stabilising self-supply. Understanding the determinants of adoption decisions regarding energy storage is therefore essential to enable targeted measures to promote their diffusion. This paper presents an in-depth analysis of motivational and psychological factors as well as product characteristics that affect the willingness to adopt domestic energy storage based on a selective sample focused on solar panel owners as the main energy storage target group. We find that potential adopters differ systematically in their evaluation of economic and non-economic utility aspects of domestic energy storage. Using correlation-based average linkage clustering, we identify four distinct types of storage adopters, namely finance-oriented, security-oriented, idealistic and multilaterally oriented households. The results of random forest analysis further reveal that adoption motives and the willingness to adopt vary substantially among the different types. We show that the most promising future adopters can be predicted based solely on observable characteristics. Our findings emphasise that segment-specific policy strategies and support mechanisms are needed to stimulate energy storage adoption to pave the way for a sustainable energy system.
在可再生能源份额不断增长以及随之而来的电力供应波动的背景下,国内储能为促进灵活的电力需求和电网稳定的自我供应提供了一个有希望的选择。因此,了解有关储能采用决策的决定因素对于采取有针对性的措施促进其扩散至关重要。本文以太阳能电池板所有者为主要储能目标群体,通过选择性抽样,深入分析了影响国内储能意愿的动机、心理因素以及产品特征。我们发现,潜在的采用者在评估国内储能的经济和非经济效用方面存在系统性差异。使用基于相关性的平均关联聚类,我们确定了四种不同类型的存储采用者,即金融导向型、安全导向型、理想主义和多边导向型家庭。随机森林分析结果进一步揭示了不同类型企业的收养动机和收养意愿存在较大差异。我们表明,仅根据可观察到的特征就可以预测未来最有希望的采用者。我们的研究结果强调,需要针对特定领域的政策策略和支持机制来刺激储能的采用,为可持续能源系统铺平道路。
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引用次数: 1
When Investors Care About Causes: Learning from Political Divestiture During Apartheid and the Sudan Crises for the Transition to Renewable Energy via Green Bonds 当投资者关心原因:从种族隔离和苏丹危机期间的政治撤资中学习,通过绿色债券向可再生能源过渡
Pub Date : 2018-05-14 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3178222
Julia M. Puaschunder
In the wake of historical and political events, stakeholder pressure can trigger shareholders to divest from politically incorrect markets with the goal of accomplishing socio-political change. As a comparative study, this paper reviews political divestiture to provide a theoretical framework for divestiture in the age of global warming. Six studies of political divestiture from Apartheid South Africa were meta-synthesized to find a pattern of stakeholder pressure, political divestiture and corporate endeavors. Some studies suggest a positive, others a negative impact and even no relation of political divestiture and corporate value was reported. The instringent findings are attributed to methodological difficulties. The findings aid in drawing inferences on the transition into renewable energies and implementation of climate stability bonds.
在历史和政治事件之后,利益相关者的压力可以触发股东从政治不正确的市场中撤资,以实现社会政治变革的目标。作为一项比较研究,本文回顾了政治资产剥离,为全球变暖时代的资产剥离提供了一个理论框架。对南非种族隔离时期政治撤资的六项研究进行了综合,以发现利益相关者压力、政治撤资和企业努力的模式。据报道,一些研究表明政治撤资和公司价值有积极的影响,另一些则有消极的影响,甚至没有关系。这些严格的调查结果归因于方法上的困难。这些发现有助于对向可再生能源过渡和实施气候稳定债券作出推论。
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引用次数: 4
The Long-Run Dynamics of Electricity Demand: Evidence From Municipal Aggregation 电力需求的长期动态:来自城市聚集的证据
Pub Date : 2017-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3274708
T. Deryugina, Alexander Mackay, J. Reif
We study the dynamics of residential electricity demand by exploiting a natural experiment that produced large and long-lasting price changes in over 250 Illinois communities. Using a flexible difference-in-difference matching approach, we estimate that the price elasticity of demand grows from − 0.09 in the first six months to − 0.27 two years later. We find similar results with a dynamic model in which usage is a function of past and future prices. Our findings highlight the importance of accounting for consumption dynamics when evaluating energy policy. (JEL L94, L98, Q41, Q48)
我们通过在伊利诺伊州250多个社区进行的一项自然实验,研究了住宅电力需求的动态变化,该实验产生了巨大而持久的价格变化。使用灵活的差中差匹配方法,我们估计需求的价格弹性从前六个月的- 0.09增长到两年后的- 0.27。我们在一个动态模型中发现了类似的结果,其中使用量是过去和未来价格的函数。我们的研究结果强调了在评估能源政策时考虑消费动态的重要性。(jel l94, l98, q41, q48)
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引用次数: 87
期刊
Journal of Energy Finance & Development
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