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ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Financial Economics - Econometrics of Financial Markets (Topic)最新文献

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Why Do Discount Rates Vary? 为什么贴现率不同?
S. Kozak, S. Santosh
We argue that in a general equilibrium model, increases in equity risk premia represent “bad” news to investors because they reveal increases in marginal utility. We employ a new empirical methodology and find that the price of “discount rate” risk is negative in the data, contrary to prior research. Our approach relies on using future realized market returns to consistently estimate covariances of asset returns with the market risk premium. Covariances drive observed cross-sectional patterns in the expected returns of stocks and bonds. Ignoring the “risk-premium” factor causes drastic underestimation of the equilibrium price of “level” risk in bond returns.
我们认为,在一般均衡模型中,股票风险溢价的增加对投资者来说是“坏”消息,因为它们揭示了边际效用的增加。我们采用了一种新的实证方法,发现“贴现率”风险的价格在数据中是负的,与先前的研究相反。我们的方法依赖于使用未来实现的市场回报来一致地估计资产回报与市场风险溢价的协方差。协方差驱动观察到的股票和债券预期收益的横截面模式。忽略“风险溢价”因素会导致严重低估债券收益中“水平”风险的均衡价格。
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引用次数: 8
Trading Strategies of Corporate Insiders 公司内部人士的交易策略
Olga Klein, Ernst Maug, Christoph Schneider
We test two complementary theories of optimal trading strategies by analyzing the transaction patterns of corporate insiders. According to information-based theories, investors trade faster if they compete with others for exploiting the same information, while liquidity-based theories predict the opposite. Our analysis supports the predictions of liquidity-based models: insiders take longer to complete trades when they face competition from other insiders and they trade slower in less liquid markets. Insiders adapt to fluctuations in market liquidity. We identify informed trading using CARs, company news announcements, and insider trading patterns. Our results support the predictions of information-based models for informed trades.
本文通过对公司内部人交易模式的分析,检验了两种互补的最优交易策略理论。根据基于信息的理论,如果投资者与其他人竞争利用相同的信息,他们的交易速度会更快,而基于流动性的理论则预测相反。我们的分析支持基于流动性模型的预测:当内部人士面临来自其他内部人士的竞争时,他们需要更长的时间来完成交易,他们在流动性较低的市场上交易较慢。内部人士适应市场流动性的波动。我们使用car、公司新闻公告和内幕交易模式来识别知情交易。我们的研究结果支持基于信息的交易模型的预测。
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引用次数: 22
Do Investors Value Dividend Smoothing Stocks Differently? 投资者对股息平滑股票的估值不同吗?
Yelena Larkin, Mark T. Leary, Roni Michaely
It is widely documented that managers strive to maintain smooth dividends. Yet, it is not clear if this behavior reflects investors’ preferences. In this paper, we study whether investors indeed value dividend smoothing stocks differently by exploring the implications of dividend smoothing for firms’ investor clientele, stock prices and cost of capital. We find that retail investors are less likely to hold dividend smoothing stocks, while institutional investors, and especially mutual funds, are more likely. However, this preference does not result in any detectable relation between the smoothness of a firm’s dividends and the expected return, or market value, of its stock. Together, the evidence suggests that firms adjust the supply of smoothed dividends to match investors’ demand. Dividend smoothing affects the composition of a firm’s shareholders but has little impact on its stock price.
广泛的文献表明,管理者努力保持平稳的股息。然而,目前尚不清楚这种行为是否反映了投资者的偏好。在本文中,我们通过探讨股息平滑对公司投资者客户、股价和资金成本的影响来研究投资者是否确实对股息平滑股票有不同的价值。我们发现,散户投资者不太可能持有股息平滑股票,而机构投资者,尤其是共同基金,更有可能持有股息平滑股票。然而,这种偏好不会导致公司股息的平稳性与其股票的预期回报或市场价值之间存在任何可检测的关系。总之,证据表明公司会调整平滑股息的供给以满足投资者的需求。股息平滑会影响公司股东的构成,但对其股价影响不大。
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引用次数: 2
Forbearance, Prompt Closure, and the Valuation of Bank Subordinated Debt 忍耐,及时关闭和银行次级债务的估值
Yeh-ning Chen, Jin‐Ping Lee, Min-Teh Yu
This study develops a multi-period structural model to value bank subordinated debt (subdebt) under different regulatory policies. The model provides a complete framework for analyzing how various factors, such as credit and interest rate risks, bank characteristics and regulatory policies affect subdebt prices and yield spreads. It finds that the implementation of prompt corrective action (PCA) will raise subdebt prices and lower subdebt spreads, while capital forbearance will have the opposite effects. Also, subdebt spreads are less sensitive to bank risk when PCA is imposed than when capital forbearance occurs. The results of the paper suggest that enhancing market discipline through giving subdebt investors more rights to force timely reorganization of weak banks will reduce the subdebt spreads required by investors.
本研究建立了一个多时期的结构模型来评估不同监管政策下银行次级债的价值。该模型为分析信贷和利率风险、银行特征和监管政策等各种因素如何影响次级债价格和收益率差提供了一个完整的框架。研究发现,及时纠正措施(PCA)的实施会提高次债价格,降低次债利差,而资本容忍则会产生相反的效果。此外,当实施PCA时,次级债务利差对银行风险的敏感性低于发生资本延期时。本文的研究结果表明,通过赋予次级债投资者更多的权利来迫使弱势银行及时重组,从而加强市场纪律,将降低投资者所需的次级债利差。
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引用次数: 0
Contemporaneous Spill-Over Among Equity, Gold, and Exchange Rate Implied Volatility Indices 股票、黄金和汇率隐含波动率指数的同期溢出效应
Ihsan Badshah, Bart Frijns, A. Tourani-Rad
This paper examines the contemporaneous spill-over effects among the CBOE implied volatility indices for stocks (VIX), gold (GVZ) and the exchange rate (EVZ). We use the 'identification through heteroskedasticity' approach of Rigobon (2003) to decompose the contemporaneous relationship between these implied volatility indices into causal relationships. Our findings suggest that there is strong unidirectional, spill-over from VIX to GVZ and EVZ, where increases in stock market volatility lead to increases in gold and exchange rate volatility; and bi-directional spill-over between GVZ and EVZ. We emphasize the implications of our model by comparing the impulse-responses generated by our structural VAR with the impulse-responses of a traditional VAR. Our results show that the responses to shocks originating in GVZ and EVZ are seriously overestimated in the traditional VAR. These findings on the direction and magnitude of spill-over and the long-run impact on volatility have important implications for portfolio and risk management.
本文研究了芝加哥期权交易所股票隐含波动率指数(VIX)、黄金隐含波动率指数(GVZ)和汇率隐含波动率指数(EVZ)之间的同期溢出效应。我们使用Rigobon(2003)的“异方差识别”方法将这些隐含波动率指数之间的同期关系分解为因果关系。我们的研究结果表明,从波动率指数到GVZ和EVZ存在很强的单向溢出效应,其中股市波动的增加导致黄金和汇率波动的增加;以及GVZ和EVZ之间的双向溢出。我们通过比较我们的结构VAR与传统VAR产生的脉冲响应来强调我们的模型的意义。我们的结果表明,传统VAR对源自GVZ和EVZ的冲击的响应严重高估了。这些关于溢出的方向和大小以及对波动率的长期影响的研究结果对投资组合和风险管理具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 35
Reconsidering Psychic Return in Art Investments 重新考虑艺术投资中的精神回报
G. Candela, Massimiliano Castellani, Pierpaolo Pattitoni
Measuring the psychic return of art investments is a debated issue in cultural economics. Several works suggest Jensen’s alpha as a measure of the psychic return. Since Jensen’s alpha is defined in the CAPM framework, its uncritical application as a measure of the psychic return may be problematic when the CAPM hypotheses do not hold. Applying an opportunity cost framework and the analytical tools of portfolio theory, we propose a new psychic return measure, which is not affected by the same issues as Jensen’s alpha. Psychic return estimates based on our measure are provided for several art market indexes as an empirical application.
衡量艺术投资的精神回报是文化经济学中一个有争议的问题。一些作品表明詹森的阿尔法值是衡量精神回归的标准。由于Jensen的alpha是在CAPM框架中定义的,当CAPM假设不成立时,它作为一种衡量精神回报的不加批判的应用可能会出现问题。本文运用机会成本框架和投资组合理论的分析工具,提出了一种不受Jensen alpha影响的心理收益度量方法。作为实证应用,本文对几个艺术品市场指数进行了心理回报估计。
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引用次数: 9
Dynamic Trading Strategies of Equity Hedge Funds: Empirical Evidence on How They Adapt to Market Conditions 股票对冲基金的动态交易策略:它们如何适应市场条件的经验证据
A. Muller, M. Lambert, H. Babaei
Hedge funds shift investment strategies in response to changing market conditions. We adjust hedge fund returns for their risks in an estimation that accounts for regime-switching effects. Index factors are used to capture the returns from buy-and-hold strategies followed by hedge fund. Besides, in order to capture the nonlinear dependence of hedge fund returns on these market indexes, we construct investable higher-moment factors and option-like strategies. Because our trading factors are mostly based on the equity markets, we focus on the equity-oriented hedge funds from the Hedge Fund Research database. Especially, we test whether these factors can explain the time series behavior of returns of a market neutral, short selling and long/short equity hedge funds. Average exposure sensitivities for systematic skewness are statistically significant for all funds. Equity hedge funds are moreover shown to follow a conservative investment strategy as they reduce their (linear or nonlinear) exposures in down-market regime relative to tranquil- or up-market regimes.
对冲基金根据不断变化的市场情况调整投资策略。我们根据对冲基金的风险对其回报率进行了调整,并考虑了制度转换效应。指数因子用于捕捉对冲基金遵循的买入并持有策略的回报。此外,为了捕捉对冲基金收益对这些市场指数的非线性依赖关系,我们构造了可投资的高矩因子和类期权策略。因为我们的交易因素主要基于股票市场,所以我们主要关注对冲基金研究数据库中的股票型对冲基金。特别是,我们检验了这些因素是否可以解释市场中性、卖空和多/空股票对冲基金收益的时间序列行为。所有基金对系统偏度的平均敞口敏感性在统计上都是显著的。此外,股票对冲基金也被证明遵循保守的投资策略,因为相对于平静或高端市场,它们在低端市场制度下减少了(线性或非线性)风险敞口。
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引用次数: 0
Tail Risk in Momentum Strategy Returns 动量策略收益中的尾部风险
Kent D. Daniel, R. Jagannathan, Soohun Kim
Momentum strategies exhibit rare but dramatic losses (crashes), which we show are a result of the leverage dynamics of stocks in the momentum portfolio. When the economy is in a hidden turbulent state associated with a depressed and volatile stock market, the short-side of the momentum portfolio becomes highly levered, and behaves like a call option on the market index portfolio, making momentum crashes more likely. We develop a hidden Markov model of the unobserved turbulent state that affects the returns on the momentum strategy and the market index portfolios. We find that the use of a combination of Normal and Student-t distributions for the hidden residuals in the model to construct the likelihood of the realized momentum and market index returns dramatically improves the models ability to predict crashes. The same variable that forecasts momentum crashes also forecasts the correlation between momentum strategy and value strategy, two of the benchmark investment styles often used in performance appraisal of quant portfolio managers. The correlation is conditionally negative only when the probability of the economy being in a turbulent state is high. The conditional correlation is zero otherwise, which is two thirds of the time. Half of the negative value-momentum relation is due to leverage dynamics of stocks in the momentum strategy portfolio. The other half is due to a hidden risk factor, likely related to funding liquidity identified in Asness et al. (2013), which emerges only when the economy is more likely to be in the turbulent state.
动量策略表现出罕见但戏剧性的损失(崩溃),我们认为这是动量投资组合中股票杠杆动态的结果。当经济处于与低迷和波动的股市相关的隐性动荡状态时,动量投资组合的短面变得高度杠杆化,其行为就像市场指数投资组合的看涨期权,使动量崩溃的可能性更大。我们建立了一个影响动量策略和市场指数组合收益的未观察到的动荡状态的隐马尔可夫模型。我们发现,在模型中使用正态分布和Student-t分布的组合来构建实现动量和市场指数回报的可能性,显著提高了模型预测崩溃的能力。预测动量崩溃的同一变量也预测了动量策略和价值策略之间的相关性,这两种基准投资风格通常用于量化投资组合经理的绩效评估。只有当经济处于动荡状态的概率很高时,这种相关性才有条件地为负。否则条件相关性为零,即三分之二的时间。负价值-动量关系的一半是由于动量策略组合中股票的杠杆动态。另一半是由于一个隐藏的风险因素,可能与Asness等人(2013)确定的资金流动性有关,只有在经济更有可能处于动荡状态时才会出现。
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引用次数: 68
Does Microcredit Create Over-Indebtedness? 小额信贷会造成过度负债吗?
Sk. Mahmudul Alam
In the context of the present crisis of microfinance, it is quite common to use the term over-indebtedness among the poor. Coming up with a precise definition of over-indebtedness for research or regulatory purposes is surprisingly a complex challenge. Few of researchers took attempt to define and measure over-indebtedness among microfinance borrowers. Among them Maurer and Pytkowska (2010); Spannuth & Pytkowska (2011) and Schicks (2011) are notable. But their definition and measurement process of over-indebtedness are not unique. Maurer and Pytkowska showed that by taking microcredit, 17% borrowers are over-indebted and 11% borrowers are at risk of becoming over-indebted in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Spannuth & Pytkowska demonstrated that 7% borrowers are insolvent, 4% borrowers are in critical position and 14% are at risk of becoming over-indebted in Kosovo. Schicks displayed that 30% borrowers are over-indebted in Ghana. The endeavor of this paper is to show the real fact whether microcredit creates over-indebtedness among its borrowers or not.
在当前小额信贷危机的背景下,在穷人中使用“过度负债”一词是很常见的。为研究或监管目的给出过度负债的精确定义,出人意料地是一项复杂的挑战。很少有研究人员试图定义和衡量小额信贷借款人的过度负债。其中Maurer and Pytkowska (2010);Spannuth & Pytkowska(2011)和Schicks(2011)值得注意。但它们对过度负债的定义和衡量过程并非独一无二。Maurer和Pytkowska表明,在波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那,17%的借款人通过小额信贷过度负债,11%的借款人有过度负债的风险。Spannuth & Pytkowska表明,在科索沃,7%的借款人资不抵债,4%的借款人处于危急状态,14%的借款人面临过度负债的风险。希克斯指出,在加纳,30%的借款人过度负债。本文试图揭示小额信贷是否在借款人中造成过度负债的真实事实。
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引用次数: 3
Mortgage Meltdown: Default Sensitivity to Declining Home Values and Loan-to-Value Ratios 抵押贷款崩溃:对房屋价值和贷款价值比下降的违约敏感性
Yannick Schindler, Judith A. Laux
The current study investigates the recent mortgage crisis to determine whether deteriorating aggregate loan-to-value (LTV) ratios resulted in more acute default responses to depreciating home prices. We find evidence that default rates did not behave erratically or disproportionately to falling housing values during the subprime crisis, but we found some proof that the aggregate LTV ratio was associated with increased foreclosure rate volatility.
当前的研究调查了最近的抵押贷款危机,以确定恶化的总贷款价值比(LTV)是否导致了对房价贬值的更严重的违约反应。我们发现有证据表明,在次贷危机期间,违约率并没有表现出不规律或不成比例的行为,但我们发现了一些证据,表明总LTV比率与止赎率波动增加有关。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Financial Economics - Econometrics of Financial Markets (Topic)
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