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Estimating Parameters of Gravitationally Lensed Quasars with Simulation-Based Inference and SplineCNNs最新文献

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Estimating Parameters of Gravitationally Lensed Quasars with Simulation-Based Inference and SplineCNNs 基于模拟推理和样条神经网络的引力透镜类星体参数估计
E. Danilov, A. Ćiprijanović, B. Nord
The Hubble Tension is considered a crisis for the LCDM model in modern cosmology. Addressing this prob-lem presents opportunities for identifying issues in data acquisition and processing pipelines or discovering new physics related to dark matter and dark energy. Time delays in the time-varying flux of gravitationally lensed quasars can be used to precisely measure the Hubble constant ( H 0 ) and potentially address the aforementioned crisis. Gaussian Processes (GPs) are typically used to model and infer quasar light curves; unfortunately, the optimization of GPs incurs a bias in the time-evolution parameters. In this work, we intro-duce a machine learning approach for fast, unbiased inference of quasar light curve parameters. Our method is amortized, which makes it applicable to very large datasets from next-generation surveys, like LSST. Addi-tionally, since it is unbiased, it will enable improved constraints on H 0 . Our model uses Spline Convolutional VAE (SplineCVAE) to extract descriptive statistics from quasar light curves and a Sequential Neural Posterior Estimator (SNPE) to predict posteriors of Gaussian process parameters from these statistics. Our SplineCVAE reaches reconstruction loss RMSE=0.04 for data normalized in the range [0 , 1] . SNPE predicts the order of magnitude of time-evolution parameters with an absolute error of less than 0.2.
哈勃张力被认为是现代宇宙学中LCDM模型的危机。解决这个问题为识别数据采集和处理管道中的问题或发现与暗物质和暗能量相关的新物理提供了机会。引力透镜类星体的时变通量的时间延迟可以用来精确测量哈勃常数(H 0),并有可能解决上述危机。高斯过程(GPs)通常用于模拟和推断类星体的光曲线;然而,GPs优化在时间演化参数上存在偏差。在这项工作中,我们引入了一种快速、无偏推断类星体光曲线参数的机器学习方法。我们的方法是平摊的,这使得它适用于来自下一代调查的非常大的数据集,比如LSST。此外,由于它是无偏的,它将支持对h0的改进约束。我们的模型使用样条卷积VAE (SplineCVAE)从类星光曲线中提取描述性统计数据,并使用顺序神经后验估计器(SNPE)从这些统计数据中预测高斯过程参数的后验。对于在[0,1]范围内归一化的数据,我们的SplineCVAE达到了重建损失RMSE=0.04。SNPE预测时间演化参数的数量级,绝对误差小于0.2。
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Estimating Parameters of Gravitationally Lensed Quasars with Simulation-Based Inference and SplineCNNs
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