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Novel Technology Solutions Enable Phased Field Development to Maximize Returns and Minimize Risks 新颖的技术解决方案使分阶段油田开发能够实现收益最大化和风险最小化
Pub Date : 2019-04-26 DOI: 10.4043/29436-MS
Tyler Skowronek, A. Kalia, Hans Fredrik Lindøen Kjellnes, Ana Serrentino, C. Chidiac, T. Mercer, Simon Holyfield
The downturn has impacted our industry in many ways, not only in terms of budget cuts and headcount reductions but also in changing the way organizations work. The downturn has enabled the creation of novel technologies and efficient development plans such as phased development and early production systems that are transforming the industry, and the increased collaboration between operators and suppliers has been unprecedented. This paper discusses recent technology developments that have and will continue to reshape the approach to phased field developments. For many years, the concept of phased field development has focused on reducing the expense of reaching first oil while planning the development for maximum recovery and deploying technology blocks that enable future add-ons for optimal asset return on investment (ROI). Game-changing efficiency resulting from earlier engagement with customers, paired with the latest technology and tools, can maximize the potential of a phased field development. Using real-world development data as a basis, this paper details how operators can use current technology and tools to enable efficient phased field development. The case study discusses the benefits of using integrated field development and planning solutions that provide operators and suppliers a robust cloud-based collaboration solution for planning and evaluating various field development options and associated cost and schedules estimates at the click of a button. The paper then shows the impact that technology such as all-electric solutions, boosting and compression, pipeline solutions, and modular product solutions can have on the decision-making process for upcoming projects.
经济衰退在许多方面影响了我们的行业,不仅在预算削减和人员减少方面,而且在改变组织工作方式方面。经济衰退催生了新技术和高效开发计划的诞生,例如阶段性开发和早期生产系统,这些都改变了整个行业,运营商和供应商之间的合作也前所未有地加强了。本文讨论了最近的技术发展,这些技术发展已经并将继续重塑分阶段油田开发的方法。多年来,油田分阶段开发的概念一直侧重于降低首次开采石油的成本,同时规划开发以实现最大采收率,并部署技术区块,使未来的附加组件能够获得最佳的资产投资回报率(ROI)。早期与客户的接触带来了改变游戏规则的效率,再加上最新的技术和工具,可以最大限度地发挥分阶段油田开发的潜力。本文以实际开发数据为基础,详细介绍了作业者如何利用现有技术和工具实现高效的分阶段油田开发。该案例研究讨论了使用综合油田开发和规划解决方案的好处,该解决方案为作业者和供应商提供了一个强大的基于云的协作解决方案,用于规划和评估各种油田开发方案以及相关的成本和进度估算,只需点击一个按钮。然后,论文展示了全电动解决方案、增压和压缩、管道解决方案和模块化产品解决方案等技术对未来项目决策过程的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Machine Learning and Quantitative Ground Models for Improving Offshore Wind Site Characterization 机器学习和定量地面模型用于改善海上风力站点表征
Pub Date : 2019-04-26 DOI: 10.4043/29351-MS
G. Sauvin, M. Vanneste, M. Vardy, R. Klinkvort, Forsberg Carl Fredrik
Quantitative integrated ground models are a requirement for proper cost optimal site characterization, for offshore renewables, coastal activities and O&G projects. Geotechnical analyses and interpretations often rely on isolated 1D boreholes. On the other hand, geophysical data are collected in 2D lines and/or 3D volumes. Geophysical data therefore provides the natural link to re-populate geotechnical properties found in the 1D boreholes onto a larger area and thereby build a consistent and robust ground model. The geophysical data can be used to estimate geotechnical data and, as of today, there are a few methods available that can reliably map the dynamic properties from the seismic data (stratigraphic information, P-wave velocities, amplitudes, and their attributes) into geotechnical or geomechanical properties, particularly for shallow sub-surface depth. Being able to predict soil properties away from boreholes is important, as often the field layout changes during the development phase, and hence, information at the specific foundation locations may not be readily available. We have developed a workflow to build quantitative ground models following three approaches: (i) a geometric model in which the seismic data interpretations guide the prediction of geotechnical properties; (ii) a geostatistical approach in which in addition to the structural constraints, we used the seismic velocities to guide the prediction; and (iii) a multi-attribute regression using an artificial neural network (ANN). We apply it to a set of publically available data from the Holland Kust Zuid wind farm site in the Dutch sector of the North Sea. The result of the workflow yields maps or sub-volumes of geotechnical or geomechanical properties across the development site that can be used in further planning or engineering design. In this study, we use the tip resistance from a CPT as an example. The tip resistance derived using all methods generally give good results. Validation against randomly selected CPT shows good correlation between predicted and measured tip resistance. The ANN performs better than the geostatistical approach. However, these two approaches require good data quality and a rather large dataset to be effective. Therefore, using a global dataset not restricted to the Holland Kust Zuid site may improve the prediction. Moreover, using existing empirical correlation and calibration through laboratory testing or by training another ANN model, the geotechnical stiffness/strength parameters such as angle of friction or undrained shear strength could be derived. The next step is to use the results and their uncertainty into a cost assessment for the given foundation concepts.
对于海上可再生能源、沿海活动和油气项目来说,定量综合地面模型是成本最优地点描述的必要条件。岩土分析和解释通常依赖于孤立的一维钻孔。另一方面,地球物理数据以二维线和/或三维体的形式收集。因此,地球物理数据提供了将1D钻孔中发现的岩土特性重新填充到更大区域的自然联系,从而建立一致且稳健的地面模型。地球物理数据可用于估计岩土数据,目前有几种方法可以可靠地将地震数据的动态特性(地层信息、纵波速度、振幅及其属性)映射为岩土或地质力学特性,特别是浅层次表层深度。能够预测远离钻孔的土壤特性是很重要的,因为在开发阶段,现场布局经常发生变化,因此,特定基础位置的信息可能不容易获得。我们已经开发了一个工作流程,通过以下三种方法建立定量地面模型:(i)几何模型,其中地震数据解释指导岩土力学性质的预测;(ii)地质统计学方法,除构造约束外,我们还使用地震速度来指导预测;(iii)使用人工神经网络(ANN)进行多属性回归。我们将其应用于北海荷兰地区Kust Zuid风电场站点的一组公开数据。工作流程的结果产生了整个开发地点的岩土技术或地质力学属性的地图或子卷,可用于进一步的规划或工程设计。在本研究中,我们以CPT的尖端电阻为例。用各种方法求得的尖端阻力一般都能得到较好的结果。对随机选择的CPT的验证表明,预测和测量的尖端阻力之间具有良好的相关性。人工神经网络的性能优于地质统计方法。然而,这两种方法需要良好的数据质量和相当大的数据集才能有效。因此,使用不局限于荷兰Kust Zuid站点的全球数据集可能会改善预测。此外,通过实验室测试或训练另一个人工神经网络模型,利用现有的经验关联和校准,可以推导出岩土刚度/强度参数,如摩擦角或不排水抗剪强度。下一步是将结果及其不确定性用于给定基础概念的成本评估。
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引用次数: 5
Life Extension of the Risers Used for the Hoover DDCV in Gulf of Mexico 墨西哥湾胡佛DDCV用隔水管的寿命延长
Pub Date : 2019-04-26 DOI: 10.4043/29608-MS
Chen Yu, Yongming Cheng, Guangqiang Yang, Manuel R. Carballo
This paper investigates life extension of the risers used for the Hoover DDCV (a classical Spar) in GoM, based on the latest technology and monitored data. Deepwater development in Gulf of Mexico (GoM) started about two decades ago. It is the time to evaluate the global integrity of the riser systems and explore the possibility of life extension in a structured and systematic way. A Deep Draft Caisson Vessel (DDCV), has been keeping up its class services for the past 17 years since it was installed in 2000. It was expected to extend the riser design life by 10 more years. This paper showed the life extension verification process starting from the initial planning, reviewing of the original design document, gathering and analyzing production and offshore measured data and finally to offshore focused underwater inspection. It introduces the methodology to assess the integrity of Steel Catenary Risers (SCRs) and Top Tensioned Risers (TTRs) used for the DDCV. An independent global performance was analyzed by utilizing latest environmental data, as-built information, measured VIM motion data and the latest analytical tools. It computes the riser global performance including dynamic strength and fatigue with the contributions from wave fatigue, VIM and VIV. The factored riser fatigue life is provided with the original safety factors to meet the intended 10 more years of service life.
本文根据最新技术和监测数据,研究了墨西哥湾胡佛DDCV(经典Spar)立管的寿命延长问题。墨西哥湾(GoM)的深水开发始于大约20年前。现在是时候评估立管系统的整体完整性,并以结构化和系统化的方式探索延长立管寿命的可能性。自2000年安装以来,一艘深水沉箱船(DDCV)在过去的17年里一直保持着它的服务水平。该技术有望将立管设计寿命延长10年以上。本文展示了从最初的规划,原始设计文件的审查,收集和分析生产和海上测量数据,最后到海上集中水下检查的延长寿命验证过程。介绍了用于DDCV的钢制悬链线立管(scr)和顶部张拉立管(trs)的完整性评估方法。通过利用最新的环境数据、建成信息、测量的VIM运动数据和最新的分析工具,独立分析了整体性能。计算了隔水管的整体性能,包括动强度和疲劳,并考虑了波动疲劳、VIM和VIV的贡献。因数立管疲劳寿命具有原有的安全系数,可满足10年以上的预期使用寿命。
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引用次数: 0
Upgrading and Conversion Opportunities for Floating Offshore Units 浮式海上装置的升级改造机会
Pub Date : 2019-04-26 DOI: 10.4043/29313-MS
A. M. Wijngaarden, N. Daniels
Offshore energy market conditions change rapidly, with consequential demand changes for installation equipment, floating units and support vessels. Newbuilding requires a substantial investment and often takes (too) much time to obtain maximum benefit from an emerging opportunity. Upgrading or conversion of an existing unit can be a good alternative. There are eight different hull types to choose from for floating offshore units. The most common vessel type is the ship-shaped monohull. Within the large pool of existing merchant and offshore vessels, both new and ageing, there are many suitable candidates for upgrades and conversions. Such a new lease of life expands their operational and economical portfolio and serves the offshore industry in reaching spectacular advances in transport, construction and installation performance. When upgrading or converting existing units multiple tiers of capability increase are distinguished. Each tier brings increasing complexity, risks and re-building costs. Options range from life extension and modernization of an older vessel, temporary conversion, capacity upgrade, adding functions, changing the present function, to ultimately the complete transformation of an older merchant cargo vessel into a brand new offshore unit. Major vessel conversions can be competitive with newbuilding options, provided that such a complex conversion project is prepared and managed well. New insights into the market drivers for upgrading and conversion of floating offshore assets are provided. The broad range of offshore vessel modifications presented is an industry first. Some remarkable examples of capacity upgrades, double conversions and complete vessel makeovers are presented.
海上能源市场变化迅速,安装设备、浮式装置和支持船的需求也随之变化。新建筑需要大量的投资,并且通常需要(太多)时间才能从新出现的机会中获得最大的利益。升级或改造一个现有的单位是一个很好的选择。浮式海上装置有八种不同的船体类型可供选择。最常见的船型是船型单体。在现有的大量商船和近海船舶中,无论是新的还是老化的,都有许多适合升级和改装的候选者。这样的新生命扩展了他们的运营和经济组合,并为海上工业在运输,施工和安装性能方面取得了惊人的进步。当升级或转换现有单位时,可以区分多层能力增加。每一层的复杂性、风险和重建成本都在增加。选择范围包括延长旧船的使用寿命和现代化,临时转换,容量升级,增加功能,改变现有功能,最终将旧商船完全改造为全新的海上单位。只要这种复杂的改装项目准备和管理得当,大型船舶改装可以与新造船竞争。对海上浮动资产升级和转换的市场驱动因素提供了新的见解。海上船舶的大范围改装在业内尚属首次。介绍了一些显著的容量升级、双重改装和完整的船舶改造的例子。
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引用次数: 3
Systems Engineering Principles to Enable Supplier-Led Solutions 系统工程原理,使供应商主导的解决方案
Pub Date : 2019-04-26 DOI: 10.4043/29403-MS
K. Falk, Ole Kaare Ulsvik, Siv Engen, Elisabet Syverud
This paper explores how the oil and gas industry has applied systems engineering and lean product development principles to develop a Configure-to-Order strategy and enable supplier-led solutions. The purpose has been to enable shorter time to delivedy and lower cost. We have developed a life-cycle model for customer and supplier needs. Our model from the subsea industry is based primarily on own experience and needs to be further explored and validated. The paper also exemplifies challenges connected to a successful implementation of a Configure-to-Order strategy. There are three essential elements. The first element is that customers must communicate functional requirements with associated performance requirements. The second is that engineers must consider modularity during product design. And, the third is that supplier gets access to relevant operational data in a way that does not harm the customer. The principle of respecting both customer and supplier need and viewpoints is a key to success when it comes to supplier-led solutions.
本文探讨了油气行业如何应用系统工程和精益产品开发原则来开发“按订单配置”策略,并实现供应商主导的解决方案。其目的是缩短交货时间,降低成本。我们为客户和供应商的需求开发了一个生命周期模型。我们的模型主要基于自己的经验,需要进一步探索和验证。本文还举例说明了成功实施按顺序配置策略所面临的挑战。有三个基本要素。第一个要素是客户必须将功能需求与相关的性能需求进行沟通。第二,工程师在产品设计时必须考虑模块化。第三,供应商以不伤害客户的方式获得相关的运营数据。当涉及到供应商主导的解决方案时,尊重客户和供应商需求和观点的原则是成功的关键。
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引用次数: 3
Degradable Materials for Multi-Stage Stimulation 多级刺激的可降解材料
Pub Date : 2019-04-26 DOI: 10.4043/29282-MS
Hui-lin Tu, I. Aviles, M. Dardis
Degradable plug-and-perf systems made of degradable alloys and polymers are being used extensively for multi-stage stimulation (MSS). This paper reviews the degradable materials available in the market, including degradable magnesium and aluminum alloys and degradable plastics and elastomers, compares their degradation mechanisms, and discusses the factors affecting their degradation behavior. A series of degradable aluminum alloys with good mechanical properties, and a tunable range of degradation rates were developed in Schlumberger for MSS applications. Key parameters, such as material formulation, temperature, and hydrostatic pressure are used to control the degradation behavior of these degradable alloys. Predictive models are established to predict the degradation time window under a broad range of downhole conditions for improved completions job planning. Comprehensive testing has been done to verify the performance of the materials in the simulated downhole conditions. In addition, field operation results are available to validate the performance of the degradable fracturing plugs made of these degradable alloys. Degradable materials enable degradable fracturing plug applications and eliminate the need for mechanical intervention. They receive more and more attention in the MSS market. We will see more rapid growth of their applications in the coming years.
由可降解合金和聚合物制成的可降解桥塞射孔系统被广泛用于多级增产(MSS)。本文综述了目前市场上可降解材料,包括可降解镁合金和可降解塑料及弹性体,比较了它们的降解机理,并讨论了影响其降解行为的因素。斯伦贝谢为MSS应用开发了一系列具有良好力学性能和可调降解率的可降解铝合金。关键参数,如材料配方,温度和静水压力被用来控制这些可降解合金的降解行为。建立了预测模型,以预测各种井下条件下的退化时间窗口,从而改进完井作业计划。为了验证材料在模拟井下条件下的性能,进行了全面的测试。此外,现场作业结果可用于验证由这些可降解合金制成的可降解压裂桥塞的性能。可降解材料可降解压裂桥塞,无需机械干预。它们越来越受到MSS市场的关注。我们将在未来几年看到其应用的快速增长。
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引用次数: 0
Kaombo Start-Up Strategy: Together We Throve! 康博创业战略:携手共进!
Pub Date : 2019-04-26 DOI: 10.4043/29637-MS
J. Rolland, O. Bahabanian, Lorena Pena, S. Rouyer
The FPSO Kaombo Norte came on stream on July 27th offshore Angola. When both its FPSOs will be at plateau, Kaombo, the biggest deep offshore project in Angola will account for 15% of the country's oil production. It produces light oil from six fields scattered over an 800-square-kilometer area. Gindungo, Gengibre, and Caril fields are connected to the Norte FPSO while Mostarda, Canela, and Louro fields will be producing on FPSO Sul. The full development stands out for its subsea network size with more than 300 kilometers of lines on the seabed within 1500-2000m water depth, including subsea production wells more than 25km away from the production facility. In order to secure a safe First-Oil and to smoothly start-up the production, a detailed and cross-functional study was carried out. The first step was to start from a clean slate by forgetting all previous startup scenarios: the three loops candidate to start-up hydrocarbon production were re-analyzed in depth to evaluate strengths and weaknesses. A task force composed of all involved disciplines, including contractors, was put in place in order to apply a cross-functional approach. Constraints from reservoir up to topsides were analyzed providing an overall picture and clear ranking to develop the start-up strategy. An ambitious planning of the commissioning activities combined with a relatively short-term reservoir management were crucial to lock production loop priorities with water injection and gas export systems readiness. The work jointly performed contributed to serene environment for a safe start-up and ramp-up. Following the assessment, decision was made to start first the most "powerful" reservoir despite a challenging flowline. The relatively high initial pressure and oil undersaturation, the robust open-hole gravel-pack completions and high productivity wells were beneficial to stabilize the multiphase flow in the subsea network. Improvement of the production was rapidly made with the start-up of the second production loop only fifteen days after. Postponement of the water injection system and the availability of the riser base gas lift were judiciously calculated: the readiness of these systems arrived in due time to respectively slow down the natural depletion of the reservoirs and improve the wells eruptivity and stability of the flowlines. Our capacity to re-invent ourselves and leave behind individual priorities conducted to a collective success captured in the outstanding production levels since early days of field life.
7月27日,“Kaombo Norte”号FPSO在安哥拉近海投产。当两艘fpso都处于稳定状态时,安哥拉最大的深海项目Kaombo将占该国石油产量的15%。它从分布在800平方公里范围内的6个油田生产轻质油。Gindungo、Gengibre和Caril油田与Norte FPSO相连,而Mostarda、Canela和Louro油田将在Sul FPSO上生产。整个开发项目以其海底网络规模而引人注目,在1500-2000米的水深范围内,海底线路超过300公里,包括距离生产设施超过25公里的海底生产井。为了确保安全的首次采油并顺利启动生产,进行了详细的跨部门研究。第一步是从头开始,忘记之前所有的启动方案:重新深入分析启动油气生产的三个候选环,以评估其优势和劣势。设立了一个由包括承包商在内的所有有关学科组成的工作队,以便采用跨职能的办法。分析了从油藏到上部的限制条件,提供了总体情况和明确的排序,以制定启动策略。调试活动的雄心勃勃的规划与相对短期的油藏管理相结合,对于锁定注水和天然气出口系统的生产循环优先级至关重要。共同完成的工作为安全启动和爬坡创造了宁静的环境。在评估之后,尽管产线具有挑战性,但还是决定首先启动最“强大”的储层。相对较高的初始压力和油欠饱和度、坚固的裸眼砾石充填完井和高产井有利于稳定海底网络中的多相流。仅仅15天后,第二个生产循环就开始了,生产得到了迅速的改善。注水系统的延期和立管底部气举的可用性经过了明智的计算:这些系统的准备就绪分别减缓了储层的自然枯竭,提高了井的喷发能力和流线的稳定性。我们有能力重新发明自己,并将个人优先事项抛诸脑后,从而在油田开发初期的出色生产水平上取得集体成功。
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引用次数: 0
Integrity Management Process of Tension Leg Platforms 张力腿平台完整性管理流程
Pub Date : 2019-04-26 DOI: 10.4043/29661-MS
R. Sheppard, R. Spong, M. Sauls, P. Hosch, M. Danaczko, F. Puskar, S. Leverette
As the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) fleet of Tension Leg Platforms (TLPs) ages, the need for more explicit Integrity Management (IM) and life extension guidance, particularly for the tendons, has grown. Recent industry efforts have developed Structural Integrity Management (SIM) guidance for fixed and floating systems, but tendon-specific guidance is less detailed. The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement commissioned the study described in this paper to develop this guidance including providing greater definition of IM and life extension processes for tendon systems, and describing an approach for demonstrating the reliability of tendon systems subjected to fatigue degradation. Four primary objectives are addressed: 1) tendon IM, 2) tendon life extension, 3) tendon fatigue, and 4) tendon component post-service testing. These topics were addressed through the input of subject matter experts, interfacing with TLP operators, and developing analytical tools. The study looked at current industry practice for the design and management of tendon systems; how current SIM approaches can be applied to the unique features of TLP tendons; what are the critical features of tendons to be addressed as part of a life extension program; tendon fatigue factors of safety; how reliability approaches can be used to better define risks related to operating beyond the original service life; and how forensic testing of recovered tendon components can be used to gain a better understanding of tendon performance expectations.
随着墨西哥湾(GOM)张力腿平台(张力腿平台)的老化,对更明确的完整性管理(IM)和寿命延长指导的需求日益增长,尤其是对肌腱的需求。最近的行业努力已经为固定和浮动系统开发了结构完整性管理(SIM)指南,但针对肌腱的指南不太详细。安全与环境执法局委托进行了本文中描述的研究,以制定该指南,包括为肌腱系统提供更详细的IM和寿命延长过程定义,并描述了一种方法来证明肌腱系统在疲劳退化下的可靠性。本研究涉及四个主要目标:1)肌腱IM, 2)肌腱寿命延长,3)肌腱疲劳,4)肌腱组件服役后测试。这些问题通过主题专家的输入、与张力腿平台运营商的交互以及开发分析工具来解决。该研究着眼于当前肌腱系统设计和管理的行业实践;当前的SIM方法如何应用于足跖点肌腱的独特特征;作为延长生命计划的一部分,肌腱的关键特征是什么?肌腱疲劳安全系数;如何使用可靠性方法来更好地定义与超过原始使用寿命的操作相关的风险;以及如何使用复原肌腱组件的法医测试来更好地了解肌腱的性能预期。
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引用次数: 0
Influence of Non-Technical Risks on Project Schedule Overrun: The Perspective of Upstream Gas Projects in Australia 非技术风险对项目进度超支的影响:以澳大利亚上游天然气项目为例
Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.4043/29238-MS
Munmun Basak, V. Coffey, Robert K. Perrons
The complexities of non-technical risks (NTRs) continue to pose serious threats throughout the lifecycle of hydrocarbon projects. Existing studies emphasise mainly internal organisational and operational issues, with a limited focus on factors in the external environment (where NTRs are frequently found). To shine light on this increasingly important topic, this paper provides insight into the complex relationship between NTRs and schedule overruns, and puts forward a ranked list identifying the NTRs that have had the most significant impact on delays in upstream gas projects in Australia. Data was gathered through an extensive literature review, interviews with industry experts, and a survey to identify relevant NTRs. From these data sources, a predictive model was developed for assessing the impact of NTRs on upstream gas project delays. The survey was circulated among participants directly involved in offshore and onshore (particularly the upstream stage) gas projects, who were requested to indicate via five-point Likert scale the frequency of occurrence and severity of each NTR. We identified 18 NTRs categorised into the political and regulatory risks, economic/financial risks, social risks, and environmental risks that cause severe challenges in upstream gas projects. The findings reveal that, overall, 78% of participants believed that NTRs cause more severe delays in the upstream stage than in the mid- and downstream stages of gas projects in Australia. Roughly 39% of respondents from the offshore group mentioned that environmental issues were more significant, whereas for onshore projects, social risks were considered dominant. Our analysis shows the relative criticality of NTRs. The top five critical NTRs causing major delays were found to be ‘fluctuations in oil prices’, ‘difficulty in obtaining land/access right’, ‘delay in approval from regulatory bodies’, ‘socio-cultural issues’, and ‘environmental restrictions’. Spearman’s rank correlation test was used to show a high degree of agreement between offshore and onshore project participants in their perceptions about the relative criticality of different NTRs. Factor analysis was applied to examine the clustering effects among NTRs, and multivariate regression modelling assisted in deriving a predictive model to forecast the influence of NTRs on project delays. Identifying and prioritising critical NTRs that interplay within the project environment, and thereby delay project execution, will increase stakeholder confidence, build trust and integrity, and improve transparency. In this way, this study will help practitioners and decision-makers to anticipate potential delays, and enable them to plan accordingly to minimise their effects on capital project delivery.
非技术风险(NTRs)的复杂性在油气项目的整个生命周期中持续构成严重威胁。现有的研究主要强调内部组织和业务问题,对外部环境因素(经常发现ntr)的关注有限。为了阐明这一日益重要的话题,本文深入探讨了ntr与进度超支之间的复杂关系,并提出了一份排名清单,列出了对澳大利亚上游天然气项目延误影响最大的ntr。通过广泛的文献回顾、与行业专家的访谈和调查来收集数据,以确定相关的ntr。根据这些数据源,开发了一个预测模型,用于评估ntr对上游天然气项目延迟的影响。该调查在直接参与海上和陆上(特别是上游阶段)天然气项目的参与者中进行,他们被要求通过五点Likert量表指出每个NTR发生的频率和严重程度。我们确定了18个ntr,这些ntr分为政治和监管风险、经济/金融风险、社会风险和环境风险,这些风险会对上游天然气项目造成严重挑战。调查结果显示,总体而言,78%的参与者认为ntr在澳大利亚天然气项目的上游阶段比中下游阶段造成更严重的延迟。大约39%的海上项目受访者提到环境问题更为重要,而对于陆上项目,社会风险被认为是主要因素。我们的分析显示了ntr的相对临界性。研究发现,造成重大延误的前五大关键ntr是“油价波动”、“获得土地/使用权的困难”、“监管机构批准的延误”、“社会文化问题”和“环境限制”。Spearman等级相关检验用于显示海上和陆上项目参与者对不同ntr相对临界性的看法高度一致。采用因子分析方法对ntr之间的聚类效应进行了分析,并利用多元回归模型建立了ntr对项目延误影响的预测模型。识别和优先考虑在项目环境中相互作用的关键ntr,从而延迟项目执行,将增加干系人的信心,建立信任和完整性,并提高透明度。通过这种方式,本研究将帮助从业者和决策者预测潜在的延迟,并使他们能够相应地制定计划,以最大限度地减少其对资本项目交付的影响。
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引用次数: 1
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