rate of the nation’s real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP). For example, the profitability of firms and, therefore, trends in stock prices will depend in good part on this growth rate, as will the average tax rate we pay. Lower tax rates also tend to create more incentives for work and investment, both of which promote higher economic growth. The long-run growth rate of real GDP itself depends importantly on the growth rate of labor productivity, or output per hours worked. Labor productivity growth over time depends on several factors, such as technological improvements and additions to the capital stock. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports nonfarm labor productivity, a commonly used measure of output per hours worked.
国家实际(经通货膨胀调整的)国内生产总值(GDP)的比率。例如，公司的盈利能力以及股票价格的趋势在很大程度上取决于这个增长率，就像我们支付的平均税率一样。较低的税率也倾向于为工作和投资创造更多的激励，这两者都促进了更高的经济增长。实际GDP的长期增长率本身在很大程度上取决于劳动生产率的增长率，即每小时工作的产出。随着时间的推移，劳动生产率的增长取决于几个因素，比如技术进步和资本存量的增加。美国劳工统计局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)公布了非农劳动生产率，这是衡量每小时工作产出的常用指标。
{"title":"A Growth-Accounting Perspective on the Post-Pandemic Economy","authors":"Kevin L. Kliesen","doi":"10.20955/es.2022.27","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2022.27","url":null,"abstract":"rate of the nation’s real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP). For example, the profitability of firms and, therefore, trends in stock prices will depend in good part on this growth rate, as will the average tax rate we pay. Lower tax rates also tend to create more incentives for work and investment, both of which promote higher economic growth. The long-run growth rate of real GDP itself depends importantly on the growth rate of labor productivity, or output per hours worked. Labor productivity growth over time depends on several factors, such as technological improvements and additions to the capital stock. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports nonfarm labor productivity, a commonly used measure of output per hours worked.","PeriodicalId":11402,"journal":{"name":"Economic Synopses","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74267619","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
countries to provide additional arms to Ukraine and impose serious sanctions on Russia, including a removal of Russian financial institutions from the SWIFT financial messaging network and bans on Russian seaborne oil exports.1 In response to these sanctions and threats of an energy price cap or tariffs on Russian oil and gas exports, Russia slowed and sometimes stopped natural gas exports to countries of the European Union (EU) and threatened to end them entirely.2 Most recently, the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines appear to have been sabotaged, which has shut down the flow of Russian gas to northern Europe. A continued shutdown would be a potentially serious problem, especially during the winter. Natural gas can’t be easily replaced with other forms of energy, at least for some years. The most economical way to ship natural gas is A Shutoff of Russian Natural Gas
{"title":"A Shutoff of Russian Natural Gas","authors":"Christopher J. Neely, Jason Dunn","doi":"10.20955/es.2022.29","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2022.29","url":null,"abstract":"countries to provide additional arms to Ukraine and impose serious sanctions on Russia, including a removal of Russian financial institutions from the SWIFT financial messaging network and bans on Russian seaborne oil exports.1 In response to these sanctions and threats of an energy price cap or tariffs on Russian oil and gas exports, Russia slowed and sometimes stopped natural gas exports to countries of the European Union (EU) and threatened to end them entirely.2 Most recently, the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines appear to have been sabotaged, which has shut down the flow of Russian gas to northern Europe. A continued shutdown would be a potentially serious problem, especially during the winter. Natural gas can’t be easily replaced with other forms of energy, at least for some years. The most economical way to ship natural gas is A Shutoff of Russian Natural Gas","PeriodicalId":11402,"journal":{"name":"Economic Synopses","volume":"19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78510129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
input costs to producers—increased substantially during the COVID-19 pandemic, and this increase was heterogeneous across industries. The manufacturing sector was, on average, more severely hit than services. There was also large heterogeneity within the manufacturing sector itself: Coke and petroleum, basic metals, and wood products have seen the highest price increases, whereas computer equipment and other transport equipment experienced the lowest price increases (Figure 1). What factors contributed to the rapid increase in PPI inflation and the large industry heterogeneity? Authors Santacreu and LaBelle explore this question in detail in their 2022 article for the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review.1 This essay summarizes their main findings and examines the challenges ahead for supply chains and PPI inflation. Supply Chain Disruptions and Inflation During COVID-19
{"title":"Supply Chain Disruptions and Inflation During COVID-19","authors":"Ana Maria Santacreu, J. LaBelle","doi":"10.20955/es.2022.11","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2022.11","url":null,"abstract":"input costs to producers—increased substantially during the COVID-19 pandemic, and this increase was heterogeneous across industries. The manufacturing sector was, on average, more severely hit than services. There was also large heterogeneity within the manufacturing sector itself: Coke and petroleum, basic metals, and wood products have seen the highest price increases, whereas computer equipment and other transport equipment experienced the lowest price increases (Figure 1). What factors contributed to the rapid increase in PPI inflation and the large industry heterogeneity? Authors Santacreu and LaBelle explore this question in detail in their 2022 article for the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review.1 This essay summarizes their main findings and examines the challenges ahead for supply chains and PPI inflation. Supply Chain Disruptions and Inflation During COVID-19","PeriodicalId":11402,"journal":{"name":"Economic Synopses","volume":"46 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84684667","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
has increased substantially. Along with price increases, disruptions and high volumes at ports have led to ships sitting idle and delays in unloading cargo.1 In a January 2022 tour of the Port of Long Beach, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg discussed the influence of these disruptions on inflation, stating, “There’s no question that when you have a scarcity of access to shipping, you’re going to see upward pressure on prices, and that’s going to be part of our challenge when it comes to inflation.”2 Maritime shipping represents a key piece of the U.S. supply chain, as well as a major way goods reach the United States; 57% of the total value of the average imported good arrives by sea.3 The spike in maritime freight prices aligns with the large spike in import prices, pointing toward increased maritime freight costs as a potential explanation for recent import price inflation. In this essay, we examine the claim that the increase in shipping prices has been a factor in the recent rise in inflation. In particular, we look at whether the price of imports has increased more for products that tend to be imported by sea or for those imported by other methods, such as air or rail.
{"title":"Inflation and Shipping Costs","authors":"Hannah Rubinton, M. Isaacson","doi":"10.20955/es.2022.5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2022.5","url":null,"abstract":"has increased substantially. Along with price increases, disruptions and high volumes at ports have led to ships sitting idle and delays in unloading cargo.1 In a January 2022 tour of the Port of Long Beach, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg discussed the influence of these disruptions on inflation, stating, “There’s no question that when you have a scarcity of access to shipping, you’re going to see upward pressure on prices, and that’s going to be part of our challenge when it comes to inflation.”2 Maritime shipping represents a key piece of the U.S. supply chain, as well as a major way goods reach the United States; 57% of the total value of the average imported good arrives by sea.3 The spike in maritime freight prices aligns with the large spike in import prices, pointing toward increased maritime freight costs as a potential explanation for recent import price inflation. In this essay, we examine the claim that the increase in shipping prices has been a factor in the recent rise in inflation. In particular, we look at whether the price of imports has increased more for products that tend to be imported by sea or for those imported by other methods, such as air or rail.","PeriodicalId":11402,"journal":{"name":"Economic Synopses","volume":"398 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88666219","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Understanding the labor market from this lens is relevant for several reasons. First, eligibility for Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans during the peak of the pandemic relied on firm size. Firms with more than 500 employees were ineligible for PPP loans, so to understand the employment effects of this program, it is important to analyze the changes in employment across firms that were and were not eligible. Second, unlike the Great Recession, the COVID-19 crisis hit small firms harder—especially those in the service sector affected by containment measures at the onset of the pandemic—since they typically have a smaller financial cushion. Thus, negative effects associated with this period were typically larger for small firms. Finally, previous research has shown that workers Hires and Separations During the COVID-19 Crisis by Firm Size
{"title":"Hires and Separations During the COVID-19 Crisis by Firm Size","authors":"S. Birinci, Aaron Amburgey","doi":"10.20955/es.2022.8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2022.8","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding the labor market from this lens is relevant for several reasons. First, eligibility for Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans during the peak of the pandemic relied on firm size. Firms with more than 500 employees were ineligible for PPP loans, so to understand the employment effects of this program, it is important to analyze the changes in employment across firms that were and were not eligible. Second, unlike the Great Recession, the COVID-19 crisis hit small firms harder—especially those in the service sector affected by containment measures at the onset of the pandemic—since they typically have a smaller financial cushion. Thus, negative effects associated with this period were typically larger for small firms. Finally, previous research has shown that workers Hires and Separations During the COVID-19 Crisis by Firm Size","PeriodicalId":11402,"journal":{"name":"Economic Synopses","volume":"2021 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87832126","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
the Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book, a summary of commentary on economic conditions. The report is based on anecdotal and qualitative information collected from a wide range of contacts, including business and community leaders across the nation. Although the “beige” in the title may imply a bland report, its anecdotes provide a colorful narrative about economic developments throughout the nation. The report is intended to provide a timely assessment of economic conditions prior to the release of official statistics such as the unemployment rate or inflation. Readers dissect dozens of pages to identify tidbits of information or key themes that shed light on the economy’s current and future prospects. For those lacking the time to comb through its pages, we show that simple, automated text analysis can extract useful metrics from the text of the Beige Book.1
{"title":"Does the Beige Book Reflect U.S. Employment and Inflation Trends?","authors":"Charles S. Gascon, Devin Werner","doi":"10.20955/es.2022.13","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2022.13","url":null,"abstract":"the Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book, a summary of commentary on economic conditions. The report is based on anecdotal and qualitative information collected from a wide range of contacts, including business and community leaders across the nation. Although the “beige” in the title may imply a bland report, its anecdotes provide a colorful narrative about economic developments throughout the nation. The report is intended to provide a timely assessment of economic conditions prior to the release of official statistics such as the unemployment rate or inflation. Readers dissect dozens of pages to identify tidbits of information or key themes that shed light on the economy’s current and future prospects. For those lacking the time to comb through its pages, we show that simple, automated text analysis can extract useful metrics from the text of the Beige Book.1","PeriodicalId":11402,"journal":{"name":"Economic Synopses","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86670444","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Profit Shifting Through Intellectual Property","authors":"Ana Maria Santacreu, J. LaBelle","doi":"10.20955/es.2022.22","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2022.22","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":11402,"journal":{"name":"Economic Synopses","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79398877","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
their resources on healthcare.1 This can be seen by looking at healthcare spending as a percentage of economic output and per capita economic output adjusted for purchasing power parity—a measure of economic development. Figure 1 shows the relationship between healthcare spending as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) and economic development of a country, measured by GDP per capita for the year 2019. The x-axis plots output per capita. Because of the large differences in output per capita, it is plotted in logs. Each dot in the figure represents a Can Population Aging Explain Rising Healthcare Spending Across Countries? Siddhartha Sanghi, Associate Economist ECONOMIC Synopses
{"title":"Can Population Aging Explain Rising Healthcare Spending Across Countries?","authors":"Siddhartha Sanghi","doi":"10.20955/es.2022.20","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2022.20","url":null,"abstract":"their resources on healthcare.1 This can be seen by looking at healthcare spending as a percentage of economic output and per capita economic output adjusted for purchasing power parity—a measure of economic development. Figure 1 shows the relationship between healthcare spending as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) and economic development of a country, measured by GDP per capita for the year 2019. The x-axis plots output per capita. Because of the large differences in output per capita, it is plotted in logs. Each dot in the figure represents a Can Population Aging Explain Rising Healthcare Spending Across Countries? Siddhartha Sanghi, Associate Economist ECONOMIC Synopses","PeriodicalId":11402,"journal":{"name":"Economic Synopses","volume":"126 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76834519","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
neighborhoods are multifold: Historical discrimination in the real estate market, redlining, and racial covenants all contributed to the establishment of segregated neighborhoods for Black and White families across the U.S. Some of those factors have since disappeared, but the segregation across neighborhoods within different cities has not. Many researchers have found that this segregation is not innocuous; it has a negative impact on a range of outcomes for Black children (Cutler and Glaeser, 1997; Ananat, 2011). This essay examines the relationship between a city’s segregation level and the gap in college attainment between Black and White children in those cities. The data for this essay come from two sources: the 2000 Census and the commuting zone dataset of child outcomes from Opportunity Insights. The census data record the population of different races in each census tract, which is a subdivision of a county with a population averaging about 4,000 people.1 The dataset of outcomes by commuting zone—a geographic area designed to reflect the part of a local economy where people live and work—records the average level of degree attainment by race for the area. We use a dissimilarity index as a measure of segregation. To measure dissimilarity between neighborhoods in a city, we first calculate the share of the city’s Black population and the share of the city’s non-Black population that live in each census tract. We use commuting zones as our definition of an overall city. Then, we take the absolute value of City Segregation and the College Degree Gap
{"title":"City Segregation and the College Degree Gap","authors":"Hannah Rubinton, M. Isaacson","doi":"10.20955/es.2022.17","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2022.17","url":null,"abstract":"neighborhoods are multifold: Historical discrimination in the real estate market, redlining, and racial covenants all contributed to the establishment of segregated neighborhoods for Black and White families across the U.S. Some of those factors have since disappeared, but the segregation across neighborhoods within different cities has not. Many researchers have found that this segregation is not innocuous; it has a negative impact on a range of outcomes for Black children (Cutler and Glaeser, 1997; Ananat, 2011). This essay examines the relationship between a city’s segregation level and the gap in college attainment between Black and White children in those cities. The data for this essay come from two sources: the 2000 Census and the commuting zone dataset of child outcomes from Opportunity Insights. The census data record the population of different races in each census tract, which is a subdivision of a county with a population averaging about 4,000 people.1 The dataset of outcomes by commuting zone—a geographic area designed to reflect the part of a local economy where people live and work—records the average level of degree attainment by race for the area. We use a dissimilarity index as a measure of segregation. To measure dissimilarity between neighborhoods in a city, we first calculate the share of the city’s Black population and the share of the city’s non-Black population that live in each census tract. We use commuting zones as our definition of an overall city. Then, we take the absolute value of City Segregation and the College Degree Gap","PeriodicalId":11402,"journal":{"name":"Economic Synopses","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75295804","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
People left the labor force during 2020 for many reasons. Some may have left due to cyclical factors: Labor force participation tends to fall when the unemployment rate is high, and in 2020 the COVID-19 crisis featured the highest post-Great Depression unemployment rate on record (14.8 percent in April 2020).3 Others may have left for factors specific to the COVID-19 crisis. For example, many people were forced to quit jobs to care for children or other family members because of the lockdown of schools and other institutions. Some people would have left the labor force anyway because of retirement. Retirees are a significant fraction of the population, as U.S. population growth has slowed and Baby Boomers (those born between 1946 through 1964) are currently retiring. Finally, a significant number of people who had not planned to retire in 2020 may have retired anyway because of the dangers to their health or due to rising asset values that made retirement feasible. This essay provides a back-of-the-envelope estimate of the number of “COVID-19 retirements.” The figure shows that the percentage of retirees in the U.S. population (the blue line) was relatively stable at around 15.5 percent until 2008 (the vertical dashed line). That year marked not only the beginning of the Great Financial Crisis but also when the oldest Baby Boomers, those born in 1946, turned 62 years of age and became eligible to receive Social Security retirement benefits. As Baby Boomers began retiring, the percentage of retirees in The COVID Retirement Boom
{"title":"The COVID Retirement Boom","authors":"M. Castro","doi":"10.20955/ES.2021.25","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/ES.2021.25","url":null,"abstract":"People left the labor force during 2020 for many reasons. Some may have left due to cyclical factors: Labor force participation tends to fall when the unemployment rate is high, and in 2020 the COVID-19 crisis featured the highest post-Great Depression unemployment rate on record (14.8 percent in April 2020).3 Others may have left for factors specific to the COVID-19 crisis. For example, many people were forced to quit jobs to care for children or other family members because of the lockdown of schools and other institutions. Some people would have left the labor force anyway because of retirement. Retirees are a significant fraction of the population, as U.S. population growth has slowed and Baby Boomers (those born between 1946 through 1964) are currently retiring. Finally, a significant number of people who had not planned to retire in 2020 may have retired anyway because of the dangers to their health or due to rising asset values that made retirement feasible. This essay provides a back-of-the-envelope estimate of the number of “COVID-19 retirements.” The figure shows that the percentage of retirees in the U.S. population (the blue line) was relatively stable at around 15.5 percent until 2008 (the vertical dashed line). That year marked not only the beginning of the Great Financial Crisis but also when the oldest Baby Boomers, those born in 1946, turned 62 years of age and became eligible to receive Social Security retirement benefits. As Baby Boomers began retiring, the percentage of retirees in The COVID Retirement Boom","PeriodicalId":11402,"journal":{"name":"Economic Synopses","volume":"54 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88321284","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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