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The Hedging Channel of Exchange Rate Determination 汇率决定的套期保值通道
Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3612395
Gordon Y. Liao, Tony Zhang
We document the exchange rate hedging channel that connects country-level measures of net external financial imbalances with exchange rates. In times of market distress, investors increase their currency hedging activities in proportion to their overall net foreign asset exposure by purchasing forward contracts. Countries with large positive external imbalances (e.g. Japan) experience domestic currency appreciation, and crucially, forward exchange rates appreciate relatively more than the spot after adjusting for interest rate differentials. Countries with large negative foreign asset positions experience the opposite currency movements. We present a model demonstrating that exchange rate hedging coupled with intermediary constraints can explain these observed relationships between net external imbalances and spot and forward exchange rates. We find empirical support for this currency hedging channel of exchange rate determination in both the conditional and unconditional moments of exchange rates, option prices, and large institutional investors’ disclosure of hedging activities. The currency hedging channel also explains the observed cross-sectional heterogeneity in the usage of the Federal Reserve dollar liquidity swap lines during the COVID-19 financial turmoil.
我们记录了将国家层面的净外部金融失衡与汇率联系起来的汇率对冲渠道。在市场低迷时期,投资者通过购买远期合约,按比例增加外汇对冲活动,以增加其总体净外国资产敞口。具有巨大正外部失衡的国家(例如日本)经历了国内货币升值,关键是,远期汇率在调整了利差后相对于现货汇率升值更多。拥有大量负外汇资产头寸的国家则经历相反的汇率变动。我们提出了一个模型,证明汇率套期保值加上中介约束可以解释这些观察到的净外部失衡与即期和远期汇率之间的关系。我们在汇率、期权价格的条件时刻和无条件时刻以及大型机构投资者对套期保值活动的披露中都发现了汇率决定的货币套期保值通道的实证支持。货币对冲通道也解释了在2019冠状病毒疫情金融动荡期间,美联储美元流动性互换额度使用情况的横截面异质性。
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引用次数: 38
Saving Macroeconomics from the Grand Trap of Liquidity 将宏观经济学从流动性的大陷阱中拯救出来
Pub Date : 2020-04-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3571054
Y. Ahn
Money is neither a product nor an asset but the medium of exchange or “liquidity” as some call it. The money stock (M) can by no means affect the economy when separated from its velocity (V). Unfortunately, however, macroeconomists attach excessive meaning to “money” even though there is no way to estimate its velocity. As a consequence, there are some erroneous money-related ideas, among others, the quantity equation, the liquidity preference, and the liquidity trap. The common root cause for those errors is taking velocity as constant and paying attention to money by itself.

This essay starts from an analysis of lay people’s activities and shows why these three popular ideas are misconceived. On the one hand, we human beings take part in creating products (C) and (new) assets (I) and earn incomes. On the other hand, we buy products for present utility and assets for future utility. Along the way, we trade exiting assets to smooth and maximize our lifetime utility. All through our life, what is critical to us and to the economy is not money per se but a system (“credit line”) which gets the power of purchasing available to us on time. As a matter of fact, money has historically been nothing other than certain ways of credit certification.
货币既不是一种产品,也不是一种资产,而是一种交换媒介,也就是一些人所说的“流动性”。当货币存量(M)与其流通速度(V)分离时,它绝不可能影响经济。然而,不幸的是,宏观经济学家给“货币”赋予了过多的意义,尽管无法估计其流通速度。因此,出现了一些与货币有关的错误观念,其中包括数量方程、流动性偏好和流动性陷阱。这些错误的共同根本原因是把速度当作常数,只关注金钱本身。本文从外行人的活动分析出发,说明了为什么这三种流行的观点被误解了。一方面,我们人类参与创造产品(C)和(新)资产(I)并赚取收入。另一方面,我们购买产品是为了现在的效用,购买资产是为了将来的效用。在此过程中,我们交易退出资产,以平稳和最大化我们的终身效用。在我们的一生中,对我们和经济至关重要的不是钱本身,而是一个系统(“信用额度”),它使我们能够及时获得购买能力。事实上,从历史上看,货币只不过是某种信用证明的方式。
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引用次数: 0
Diminishing Dollar Hegemony: What Wars and Sanctions Failed to Accomplish, COVID-19 Has 削弱美元霸权:战争和制裁未能实现的新冠肺炎
Pub Date : 2020-04-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3570910
John Taskinsoy
The United States has turned into an anarchic Hobbesian in part triggered by; weakening dollar’s natural pull as the main reserve currency; China’s massive foreign reserves; fast rise of the renminbi; the failure attempts to dismantle gold and its readiness to reclaim a monetary role at the heart of the next monetary system. President Trump’s selfish “America First” policy and its spinoff actions have debilitated the economies of Iran, Venezuela, China, Russia, Turkey, the Middle East as a whole and a host of other countries in Europe. Coronavirus was the final blow to put the already fragile world economy into state of coma. The world’s nations would have been in a better state financially to fight coronavirus if the United States since 2016 has unjustifiably pushed many economies off the cliff via instability-inflicting policies and engagements in video game like warfare, all of which were purposely strategized with the goal of maintaining American supremacy and preventing the dollar hegemony from further diminishing. Since the Fed creates infinite money through credit expansion, United States unlike any country can engage in more than one war simultaneously, but this time the unusual enemy coronavirus will not be defeated through an arsenal of weapons of mass destruction. The GFC of 2008, originated in the U.S., was a near financial meltdown; with coronavirus, thousands of deaths and the resultant fear may cause many economies including that of the U.S. to collapse.
美国已经变成了无政府主义的霍布斯,部分原因是;削弱美元作为主要储备货币的天然吸引力;中国庞大的外汇储备;人民币快速升值;这一失败试图摧毁黄金及其在下一个货币体系中重新发挥核心货币作用的意愿。特朗普总统自私的“美国优先”政策及其衍生行动削弱了伊朗、委内瑞拉、中国、俄罗斯、土耳其、整个中东和许多其他欧洲国家的经济。冠状病毒是使本已脆弱的世界经济陷入昏迷状态的最后一击。如果美国自2016年以来通过制造不稳定的政策和参与电子游戏式的战争,不合理地将许多经济体推下悬崖,那么世界各国在抗击冠状病毒方面的财政状况会更好,所有这些都是为了维护美国的霸权地位,防止美元霸权进一步削弱而故意制定的战略。由于美联储通过信贷扩张创造了无限的货币,美国不同于任何国家,可以同时参与一场以上的战争,但这一次,不寻常的敌人冠状病毒不会通过大规模杀伤性武器的武器库来击败。2008年起源于美国的全球金融危机几乎导致了金融崩溃;由于冠状病毒,数千人死亡,由此产生的恐惧可能导致包括美国在内的许多经济体崩溃。
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引用次数: 21
The Influence of Exchange Rate and Export to Indonesia's Economic Growth 汇率和出口对印尼经济增长的影响
Pub Date : 2020-01-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3524289
Haura Kurniati
Economic growth in Indonesia is caused by various factors. The purpose of this study is to determine how the influence of exchange rate and export on Indonesia’s economic growth in the four months period. This research is a quantitative study using secondary data. Data was collected using time series data from September 2019 to December 2019. The data was obtained from Bank Indonesia and the Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). Furthermore, the data will be processed using multiple linear analysis with the help of the SPSS application system. From the results of the analysis it can be concluded that the variable of exchange rate and variable of export affect the economic growth of Indonesia. The exchange rate variable has a negative effect on economic growth in Indonesia with a coefficient of -519, while the export variable has a positive effect on economic growth in Indonesia with a coefficient of .210.
印尼的经济增长是由多种因素造成的。本研究的目的是确定汇率和出口对四个月期间印度尼西亚经济增长的影响。本研究采用二手数据进行定量研究。数据使用2019年9月至2019年12月的时间序列数据收集。数据来自印度尼西亚银行和巴丹普萨特统计局(BPS)。在SPSS应用系统的帮助下,对数据进行多元线性分析。从分析结果可以看出,汇率变量和出口变量对印尼经济增长的影响。汇率变量对印尼经济增长的影响为负,其系数为-519,而出口变量对印尼经济增长的影响为正,其系数为0.210。
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引用次数: 0
What Do Foreign Exchange Markets Say About Election Outcomes? A Comparison Between Malaysia, Singapore and Philippines 外汇市场对大选结果有何反应?马来西亚、新加坡和菲律宾的比较
Pub Date : 2019-12-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3505123
Hon-Chung Hui
In this paper, Event Studies are conducted to examine the effects of political events on foreign exchange returns in Malaysia, Singapore and Philippines. The political events of interest in this paper cover the general elections in all three countries. Some of the salient findings are as follows. First, the 13th General Election in Malaysia led to a mostly negative response from the foreign exchange market, with a sharper than expected Ringgit depreciation. Second, the 14th Malaysian General Election elicited a rather positive reaction from the foreign exchange market – there was far less depreciation of the Ringgit than what was previously believed. Third, both the 2011 and 2015 General Elections in Singapore were followed by positive reactions from the market. Fourth, presidential elections in the Philippines produced contrasting results – the election of Benigno Aquino III was greeted with optimism, whereas his successor, Rodrigo Duterte received a less welcoming reception from the foreign exchange market, with the Philippine Peso depreciating more than the predicted amount in the market model.
本文采用事件研究的方法来考察马来西亚、新加坡和菲律宾的政治事件对外汇收益的影响。本文关注的政治事件涵盖了这三个国家的大选。一些突出的发现如下。首先,马来西亚第13届全国大选导致外汇市场的反应大多是负面的,令吉的贬值幅度超出预期。其次,第14届马来西亚大选在外汇市场引发了相当积极的反应——令吉的贬值幅度远低于此前的预期。第三,2011年和2015年新加坡大选之后,市场都做出了积极的反应。第四,菲律宾的总统选举产生了截然不同的结果——贝尼尼奥·阿基诺三世(Benigno Aquino III)的当选受到了乐观的欢迎,而他的继任者罗德里戈·杜特尔特(Rodrigo Duterte)却没有受到外汇市场的欢迎,菲律宾比索的贬值幅度超过了市场模型的预测。
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引用次数: 0
The Relevance of Bitcoin to the Regression Theorem: A Reply to Luther 比特币与回归定理的相关性:对路德的回答
Pub Date : 2019-11-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3492642
G. Pickering
Given Bitcoin’s apparent lack of non-monetary uses, Luther (2018) argues that its emergence as a medium of exchange invalidates the regression theorem, or at least severely limits its relevance to identifying which commodities could emerge as media of exchange in the absence of State intervention. However, this view misinterprets both the regression theorem itself and the problem it was developed to address. The goal of the regression theorem was not to identify which commodities could become monies, but to provide a subjectivist explanation of the purchasing power of money. To do this, it requires only that some individuals valued the good in question before its use as a medium of exchange, not that it had some objective pre-monetary use.
鉴于比特币明显缺乏非货币用途,路德(2018)认为,比特币作为交换媒介的出现使回归定理无效,或者至少严重限制了回归定理在没有国家干预的情况下识别哪些商品可能成为交换媒介的相关性。然而,这种观点误解了回归定理本身和它所要解决的问题。回归定理的目的不是确定哪些商品可以成为货币,而是为货币的购买力提供一个主观主义的解释。要做到这一点,它只需要一些人在将相关商品用作交换媒介之前对其进行估价,而不需要它在成为货币之前有某种客观用途。
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引用次数: 3
Token Economics in Real-Life: Cryptocurrency and Incentives Design for Insolar’s Blockchain Network 现实生活中的代币经济学:Insolar区块链网络的加密货币和激励设计
Pub Date : 2019-10-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3465085
M. Laskowski, Henry M. Kim, Michael Zargham, Matt Barlin, D. Kabanov
The study of how to set up cryptocurrency incentive mechanisms and to operationalize governance is token economics. Given the $250 billion market cap for cryptocurrencies, there is compelling need to investigate this topic. In this paper, we present facets of the token engineering process for a real-life 80-person Swiss blockchain startup, Insolar. We show how Insolar used systems modeling and simulation combined with cryptocurrency expertise to design a mechanism to incentivize enterprises and individual users to use their new MainNet public blockchain network. The study showed subsidy pools that incentivize application developers to develop on the network does indeed have the desired positive effect on MainNet adoption. For a startup like Insolar whose success hinge upon how well their model incentivizes various stakeholders to participate on their MainNet network versus that of numerous alternatives, this token economics simulation analysis provides invaluable insights.
研究如何建立加密货币激励机制并实施治理是代币经济学。考虑到加密货币的市值达到2500亿美元,我们迫切需要研究这个话题。在本文中,我们为现实生活中的80人瑞士区块链创业公司Insolar介绍了代币工程过程的各个方面。我们展示了Insolar如何使用系统建模和仿真与加密货币专业知识相结合来设计一种机制,以激励企业和个人用户使用其新的主网公共区块链网络。研究表明,激励应用程序开发人员在网络上开发的补贴池确实对主网的采用产生了预期的积极影响。对于像Insolar这样的初创公司来说,其成功取决于其模型如何激励各种利益相关者参与其主网网络,而不是众多替代方案,这种代币经济模拟分析提供了宝贵的见解。
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引用次数: 14
Statistical Analysis of the Most Influential Cryptocurrencies 最具影响力加密货币的统计分析
Pub Date : 2019-09-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3490485
Višnja Jurić, Vanja Šimičević, D. Kajba
A comparison of the most 30 influential cryptocurrencies has been made, based on the "CoinMarketCap" web page. Over the last few years, an increasing number of the world's population is investing in the cryptocurrency market. The emphasis is placed on Bitcoin, which is the absolute leader on this market. The difference between electronic money and virtual currency is explained, followed by the history of crypto values. Finally, the statistical analysis of the most influential cryptocurrencies, during the last year, will be presented.
根据“CoinMarketCap”网页,对30种最具影响力的加密货币进行了比较。在过去的几年里,越来越多的世界人口投资于加密货币市场。重点放在比特币上,它是这个市场的绝对领导者。本文解释了电子货币和虚拟货币之间的区别,然后介绍了加密货币的历史。最后,将介绍去年最具影响力的加密货币的统计分析。
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引用次数: 0
Operations of Foreign Exchange Department of a Commercial Bank 某商业银行外汇部门的业务
Pub Date : 2019-09-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3468652
Md. Ashabur Rahman
The Foreign Exchange Department of a bank performs foreign exchange operations as well as transactions. The main function of a forex department is to handle foreign inward remittances as well as outward remittances as well as buying and selling of foreign currencies. In some cases, Foreign Currency Account (FCA) is maintained for foreign transactions. The Letter of Credit is a very important import document which is issued by this department of a bank. This department also receives inward foreign remittance from the migrant workers living and working abroad. However, Foreign Exchange Department of a bank plays very important role in a countries economic growth because international business is highly depended on Foreign Exchange Department of a bank. Any foreign currency, traveller's cheques, letters of credit and bills of exchange are processed by this department.
银行的外汇部门除办理外汇交易外,还办理外汇业务。外汇部门的主要职能是办理外汇汇入、汇出和外汇买卖业务。在某些情况下,外币账户(FCA)是为国外交易而维护的。信用证是一种非常重要的进口单据,由银行的这个部门签发。该部门还接收在国外生活和工作的移徙工人的汇入外国汇款。然而,银行的外汇部门在一个国家的经济增长中起着非常重要的作用,因为国际业务高度依赖银行的外汇部门。任何外币、旅行支票、信用证和汇票都由这个部门处理。
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引用次数: 0
Towards a New Monetary Theory of Exchange Rate Determination 论汇率决定的新货币理论
Pub Date : 2019-08-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3445454
A. Cesa-Bianchi, Michael Kumhof, Andrej Sokol, Gregory Thwaites
We study exchange rate determination in a 2-country model where domestic banks create each economy’s supply of domestic and foreign currency. The model combines the UIP-based and monetary theories of exchange rate determination, but the latter with a focus on private rather than public money creation. The model features an endogenous monetary spread or excess return in the UIP condition. This spread experiences sizeable changes when shocks affect the relative supplies (of bank loans) or demands (for bank deposits) of the two currencies. Under such shocks, monetary effects dominate traditional UIP effects in the determination of exchange rates and allocations, and this becomes stronger as domestic and foreign currencies become more imperfect substitutes. With these shocks, the model successfully addresses the UIP puzzle, and it is also consistent with the Meese-Rogoff and PPP puzzles.
我们在两国模型中研究汇率决定,其中国内银行创造每个经济体的本币和外币供应。该模型结合了基于upp的汇率决定理论和货币理论,但后者侧重于私人货币创造,而不是公共货币创造。该模型在upp条件下具有内生的货币利差或超额收益。当冲击影响两种货币的相对供给(银行贷款)或需求(银行存款)时,这一利差会发生相当大的变化。在这种冲击下,在决定汇率和分配方面,货币效应支配着传统的统一ip效应,随着本币和外币成为更不完美的替代品,这种效应变得更强。有了这些冲击,该模型成功地解决了UIP难题,它也与Meese-Rogoff和PPP难题一致。
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引用次数: 5
期刊
PSN: Exchange Rates & Currency (International) (Topic)
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