Assuming inflation is a forward variable in Taylor (1999) model, this paper finds opposite policy rule recommandations with counter-cyclical policy rule parameters (Taylor principle: inflation rule larger than one and bounded upwards) in the case of optimal policy under commitment versus pro-cyclical policy rule parameters (inflation rule parameter below zero) in the case of discretionary policy. For the observed high inertia of the Fed with variations of the nominal policy rate within the range [0%,4%] during the great moderation, the cost of time-inconsistency is negligible for optimal policy. Time-inconsistency cannot be the ultimate argument to reject counter-cyclical Taylor principle.
{"title":"Countercyclical versus Procyclical Taylor Principles","authors":"Jean-Bernard Chatelain, K. Ralf","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2754054","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2754054","url":null,"abstract":"Assuming inflation is a forward variable in Taylor (1999) model, this paper finds opposite policy rule recommandations with counter-cyclical policy rule parameters (Taylor principle: inflation rule larger than one and bounded upwards) in the case of optimal policy under commitment versus pro-cyclical policy rule parameters (inflation rule parameter below zero) in the case of discretionary policy. For the observed high inertia of the Fed with variations of the nominal policy rate within the range [0%,4%] during the great moderation, the cost of time-inconsistency is negligible for optimal policy. Time-inconsistency cannot be the ultimate argument to reject counter-cyclical Taylor principle.","PeriodicalId":127579,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian (Topic)","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115538205","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Recession-driven low inflation and high spreads affect the cost of debt in project finance investments, increasing its real burden and so reducing private profits and bankability. This paper investigates the Keynesian impact of quantitative easing, which stimulates economic growth producing shared public and private benefits.
{"title":"The Impact of Quantitative Easing on the Cost of Debt in Project Finance Investments","authors":"Roberto Moro Visconti","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2727899","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2727899","url":null,"abstract":"Recession-driven low inflation and high spreads affect the cost of debt in project finance investments, increasing its real burden and so reducing private profits and bankability. This paper investigates the Keynesian impact of quantitative easing, which stimulates economic growth producing shared public and private benefits.","PeriodicalId":127579,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125451526","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We evaluate the performance of inflation forecasts based on the open-economy Phillips curve by exploiting the spatial pattern of international propagation of inflation. We model these spatial linkages using global inflation and either domestic slack or oil price fluctuations, motivated by a novel interpretation of the forecasting implications of the workhorse openeconomy New Keynesian model (Martínez-García and Wynne (2010), Kabukcuoglu and Martínez-García (2014)). We find that incorporating spatial interactions yields significantly more accurate forecasts of local inflation in 14 advanced countries (including the U.S.) than a simple autoregressive model that captures only the temporal dimension of the inflation dynamics.
{"title":"Inflation as a Global Phenomenon - Some Implications for Policy Analysis and Forecasting","authors":"Ayşe Kabukcuoglu Dur, Enrique Martínez-García","doi":"10.24149/gwp261","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24149/gwp261","url":null,"abstract":"We evaluate the performance of inflation forecasts based on the open-economy Phillips curve by exploiting the spatial pattern of international propagation of inflation. We model these spatial linkages using global inflation and either domestic slack or oil price fluctuations, motivated by a novel interpretation of the forecasting implications of the workhorse openeconomy New Keynesian model (Martínez-García and Wynne (2010), Kabukcuoglu and Martínez-García (2014)). We find that incorporating spatial interactions yields significantly more accurate forecasts of local inflation in 14 advanced countries (including the U.S.) than a simple autoregressive model that captures only the temporal dimension of the inflation dynamics.","PeriodicalId":127579,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian (Topic)","volume":"200 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132386624","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper estimates a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in small open economies using the yield curve data as well as standard macro data. The DSGE model is estimated on the data of three inflation-targeting small open economies (Australia, Canada, and New Zealand) using Bayesian methods. We find that the long-end of the yield curve is highly correlated with the current and future short-term interest rates determined by domestic central banks. Yield curve data are particularly informative about the future stance of monetary policy in Australia and Canada in that the correlation between the model-implied monetary policy expectations and the ex-post realized policy interest rates increases when the yield curve data are used in estimation. In New Zealand, estimation results based on only macro data produce a high correlation between the model-implied interest rate expectations and the ex-post realized interest rates because information from the yield curve has been explicitly incorporated in monetary policy decisions. We also document that a persistent shock to the inflation target driving the average level of the yield curve in these three countries is highly correlated with long-horizon inflation expectations in the U.S., indicating stronger financial linkages.
{"title":"Yield Curve and Monetary Policy Expectations in Small Open Economies","authors":"Kwan Soo Bong, Tae-Yong Doh, Woong Yong Park","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2531095","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2531095","url":null,"abstract":"This paper estimates a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in small open economies using the yield curve data as well as standard macro data. The DSGE model is estimated on the data of three inflation-targeting small open economies (Australia, Canada, and New Zealand) using Bayesian methods. We find that the long-end of the yield curve is highly correlated with the current and future short-term interest rates determined by domestic central banks. Yield curve data are particularly informative about the future stance of monetary policy in Australia and Canada in that the correlation between the model-implied monetary policy expectations and the ex-post realized policy interest rates increases when the yield curve data are used in estimation. In New Zealand, estimation results based on only macro data produce a high correlation between the model-implied interest rate expectations and the ex-post realized interest rates because information from the yield curve has been explicitly incorporated in monetary policy decisions. We also document that a persistent shock to the inflation target driving the average level of the yield curve in these three countries is highly correlated with long-horizon inflation expectations in the U.S., indicating stronger financial linkages.","PeriodicalId":127579,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129471098","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Robert W. Clower’s article “The Keynesian Counter-Revolution: A Theoretical Appraisal” (1965) deeply influenced the course of Keynesian macroeconomics by contributing to the transition from IS/LM macroeconomics to fix-price theories. Despite this influence, no scholar proposed to explain its origins, with the notable exception of Roger E. Backhouse and Mauro Boianovsky (2013). They explained that the 1965 piece was the result of an independent research program rooted in the works of Clower during the 1950s. My paper aims to offer an alternative explanation. It is synthesized in the metaphor of an about-face to stress that a theoretical break is at the origin of this contribution. This break, initiated in the early 1960s, is characterized by a double change in perspective (individual equilibrium vs. individual disequilibrium, and compatibility vs. incompatibility between Keynesian and Walrasian theories). The intellectual context, particularly Don Patinkin (1956; 1958), will be invoked to trace the roots of this about-face. Consequently, rather than independency and linearity, I argue that dependency and non-linearity are the two salient features of Clower’s intellectual path.
罗伯特·w·克洛的文章《凯恩斯主义的反革命:一种理论评价》(1965)对凯恩斯主义宏观经济学的进程产生了深远的影响，促成了从IS/LM宏观经济学向固定价格理论的过渡。尽管有这种影响，但除了Roger E. Backhouse和Mauro Boianovsky(2013)之外，没有学者提出解释其起源。他们解释说，1965年的作品是一个独立研究项目的结果，该项目植根于20世纪50年代克洛尔的作品。我的论文旨在提供另一种解释。它被综合在一个大转弯的比喻中，以强调理论的断裂是这一贡献的起源。这一突破始于20世纪60年代初，其特点是观点发生了双重变化(个体均衡与个体非均衡，凯恩斯理论与瓦尔拉斯理论之间的相容与不相容)。知识背景，尤其是唐·帕廷金(1956;(1958)，以追溯这一转变的根源。因此，不是独立性和线性，我认为依赖性和非线性是cloer智力道路的两个显著特征。
{"title":"Clower's About-Face Regarding the ‘Keynesian Revolution’","authors":"Romain Plassard","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2675245","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2675245","url":null,"abstract":"Robert W. Clower’s article “The Keynesian Counter-Revolution: A Theoretical Appraisal” (1965) deeply influenced the course of Keynesian macroeconomics by contributing to the transition from IS/LM macroeconomics to fix-price theories. Despite this influence, no scholar proposed to explain its origins, with the notable exception of Roger E. Backhouse and Mauro Boianovsky (2013). They explained that the 1965 piece was the result of an independent research program rooted in the works of Clower during the 1950s. My paper aims to offer an alternative explanation. It is synthesized in the metaphor of an about-face to stress that a theoretical break is at the origin of this contribution. This break, initiated in the early 1960s, is characterized by a double change in perspective (individual equilibrium vs. individual disequilibrium, and compatibility vs. incompatibility between Keynesian and Walrasian theories). The intellectual context, particularly Don Patinkin (1956; 1958), will be invoked to trace the roots of this about-face. Consequently, rather than independency and linearity, I argue that dependency and non-linearity are the two salient features of Clower’s intellectual path.","PeriodicalId":127579,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129530489","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A growing empirical literature demonstrates that the size of the expenditure multiplier varies over time, being both larger and consistently greater than one during periods of slow growth and/or recession. This paper contributes to the theory of the time-varying multiplier. It is shown that a combination of Kalecki’s dynamic theory of investment and Harrod’s “satisficing” approach to the investment decision furnish a theory in which the “crowding in” of investment expenditures following an initial demand stimulus (fiscal or otherwise) gives rise to an elevated expenditure multiplier during times of pronounced macroeconomic distress.
{"title":"Time Variation in the Size of the Multiplier: A Kalecki-Harrod Approach","authors":"M. Setterfield","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2663720","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2663720","url":null,"abstract":"A growing empirical literature demonstrates that the size of the expenditure multiplier varies over time, being both larger and consistently greater than one during periods of slow growth and/or recession. This paper contributes to the theory of the time-varying multiplier. It is shown that a combination of Kalecki’s dynamic theory of investment and Harrod’s “satisficing” approach to the investment decision furnish a theory in which the “crowding in” of investment expenditures following an initial demand stimulus (fiscal or otherwise) gives rise to an elevated expenditure multiplier during times of pronounced macroeconomic distress.","PeriodicalId":127579,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian (Topic)","volume":"74 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121027105","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
It is shown from empirical data that the Keynesian policy of continual stimulus of the US economy over decades has led to a mountain of debt and a destruction of economic growth. The causal mechanism of how this occurs has been identified. Excessive Keynesian monetary stimulation of aggregate demand has encouraged new debt creation which has tended to increase consumption more than investment, leading to an ever rising propensity to consume. The over-consumption structure of US aggregate demand has led to lower economic growth which in turn called forth more monetary stimulus, more new debt, greater propensity to consume and lower economic growth, in a vicious spiral of increasing debt and destruction of the US economy. Within this spiral, the Clinton years were a notable hiatus (the “Great Moderation”) when debt was retired (debt-deflation) with the economy growing strongly and steadily and unemployment falling to a four-decade low. Clintonomics provides a clue to avoiding Keynesian economic collapse.
{"title":"Economic Policy of Debt and Destruction","authors":"Wilson N. Sy","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2616591","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2616591","url":null,"abstract":"It is shown from empirical data that the Keynesian policy of continual stimulus of the US economy over decades has led to a mountain of debt and a destruction of economic growth. The causal mechanism of how this occurs has been identified. Excessive Keynesian monetary stimulation of aggregate demand has encouraged new debt creation which has tended to increase consumption more than investment, leading to an ever rising propensity to consume. The over-consumption structure of US aggregate demand has led to lower economic growth which in turn called forth more monetary stimulus, more new debt, greater propensity to consume and lower economic growth, in a vicious spiral of increasing debt and destruction of the US economy. Within this spiral, the Clinton years were a notable hiatus (the “Great Moderation”) when debt was retired (debt-deflation) with the economy growing strongly and steadily and unemployment falling to a four-decade low. Clintonomics provides a clue to avoiding Keynesian economic collapse.","PeriodicalId":127579,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian (Topic)","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124531181","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper provides a brief introduction to post-Keynesian economics. Post-Keynesians are sceptical of the usefulness of the equilibrium method, and favour an approach based on path-determined models with, due to the influence of uncertainty on economic decisions, an important role assigned to money, institutions and rules of thumb. As there are no forces within capitalist economies which can guarantee full employment, government intervention is important. While monetary policy is seen as a rather blunt instrument, fiscal policy is perceived to be much more potent than it is in the mainstream. However, there are inherent limits to the achievement of sustained full employment in capitalist economies.
{"title":"Post-Keynesian Economics – A User's Guide","authors":"N. Hart, Peter Kriesler","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2613791","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2613791","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides a brief introduction to post-Keynesian economics. Post-Keynesians are sceptical of the usefulness of the equilibrium method, and favour an approach based on path-determined models with, due to the influence of uncertainty on economic decisions, an important role assigned to money, institutions and rules of thumb. As there are no forces within capitalist economies which can guarantee full employment, government intervention is important. While monetary policy is seen as a rather blunt instrument, fiscal policy is perceived to be much more potent than it is in the mainstream. However, there are inherent limits to the achievement of sustained full employment in capitalist economies.","PeriodicalId":127579,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian (Topic)","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115510983","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In Keynes’ beauty contest, agents make choices by referring to their expectations of some fundamental value and of the conventional value to be set by the market. In doing so, agents respond to fundamental and strategic motives, respectively. The prevalence of either motive is usually set exogenously. Our contribution is to consider whether agents favor one of the two motives when the relative weights put on them are taken as strategic variables. We show that the strategic motive tends to prevail over the fundamental one, yielding a disconnection of agents’ actions from the fundamental. This is done in a simple valuation game emphasizing the role of public information. We then extend the same result to competition between the owners of two firms, by using a delegation game in which informational issues are embedded into a broader microfounded setting.
{"title":"Cooperation in a Differentiated Duopoly when Information is Dispersed: A Beauty Contest Game with Endogenous Concern for Coordination","authors":"Camille Cornand, Rodolphe Dos Santos Ferreira","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2564519","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2564519","url":null,"abstract":"In Keynes’ beauty contest, agents make choices by referring to their expectations of some fundamental value and of the conventional value to be set by the market. In doing so, agents respond to fundamental and strategic motives, respectively. The prevalence of either motive is usually set exogenously. Our contribution is to consider whether agents favor one of the two motives when the relative weights put on them are taken as strategic variables. We show that the strategic motive tends to prevail over the fundamental one, yielding a disconnection of agents’ actions from the fundamental. This is done in a simple valuation game emphasizing the role of public information. We then extend the same result to competition between the owners of two firms, by using a delegation game in which informational issues are embedded into a broader microfounded setting.","PeriodicalId":127579,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian (Topic)","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130162681","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The global neoliberal project, which entailed inter alia financial liberalization that accelerated financialization of the world economy, was advocated by leading Austrian, Chicago School neoclassical, and New Keynesian economists, despite awareness that the project would induce substantial harm among many members of society. To the extent that they were efficacious in their advocacy, economists contributed to the imposition of serious harm. Often the harm befell the most vulnerable members of society. At least some of the harm was avoidable. This paper examines critically the Kaldor-Hicks (KH) compensation test, which provided the normative foundation for the neoliberal project. The paper finds that the best defense of KH, based on contractarianism, is deficient on grounds other than those commonly invoked against KH. The focus is on the welfarism that grounds the contractarian case, and the related presumption that all harms are reparable and, indeed, compensable.
{"title":"Harming Irreparably: Economists, Neoliberalism, and the Matter of Kaldor-Hicks","authors":"G. DeMartino","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2584512","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2584512","url":null,"abstract":"The global neoliberal project, which entailed inter alia financial liberalization that accelerated financialization of the world economy, was advocated by leading Austrian, Chicago School neoclassical, and New Keynesian economists, despite awareness that the project would induce substantial harm among many members of society. To the extent that they were efficacious in their advocacy, economists contributed to the imposition of serious harm. Often the harm befell the most vulnerable members of society. At least some of the harm was avoidable. This paper examines critically the Kaldor-Hicks (KH) compensation test, which provided the normative foundation for the neoliberal project. The paper finds that the best defense of KH, based on contractarianism, is deficient on grounds other than those commonly invoked against KH. The focus is on the welfarism that grounds the contractarian case, and the related presumption that all harms are reparable and, indeed, compensable.","PeriodicalId":127579,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian (Topic)","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116159964","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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