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FORECASTING THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN MALAYSIA DURING COVID-19 PANDEMIC USING ARIMA AND ARFIMA MODELS 利用arima和arfima模型预测2019冠状病毒病大流行期间马来西亚的失业率
Pub Date : 2022-02-28 DOI: 10.24191/mjoc.v7i1.14641
Nur Afiqah Ismail, Nurin Alya Ramzi, P. Mah
The unemployment issue is one of the most common problems faced by many countries around the world. The unemployment rates in developed countries often fluctuate throughout time. Similarly, Malaysia is also affected by the inconsistent unemployment rate especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, in order to understand the trend better, ARIMA and ARFIMA were used to model and forecast the unemployment rate in Malaysia in this study. The dataset on the unemployment rate in Malaysia from January 2010 until July 2021 was obtained from Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) official portal. The best time series models found were ARIMA (2, 1, 2) and ARFIMA (0, −0.2339, 0). The performance of the models was evaluated using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE). It appeared that the ARFIMA model emerged as a better forecast model since it had better performance compared to ARIMA in forecasting the unemployment rate in Malaysia.
失业问题是世界上许多国家面临的最普遍的问题之一。发达国家的失业率经常随时间波动。同样,马来西亚也受到失业率不稳定的影响,特别是在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间。因此,为了更好地了解趋势,本研究使用ARIMA和ARFIMA对马来西亚的失业率进行建模和预测。马来西亚2010年1月至2021年7月的失业率数据集来自马来西亚国家银行(BNM)官方门户网站。发现的最佳时间序列模型为ARIMA(2,1,2)和ARFIMA(0,−0.2339,0)。使用平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE),平均绝对误差(MAE)和均方根误差(RMSE)来评估模型的性能。ARFIMA模型似乎是一个更好的预测模型,因为它在预测马来西亚失业率方面比ARIMA有更好的表现。
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引用次数: 1
ON A COMPREHENSIVE CLASS OF ANALYTIC P-VALENT FUNCTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SHELL-LIKE CURVE AND MODIFIED SIGMOID FUNCTION 类壳曲线与修正s型函数相关的一类解析p价函数
Pub Date : 2022-02-14 DOI: 10.24191/mjoc.v7i1.10494
J. O. Hamzat, A. Oladipo
In this paper, the authors introduce and study a new class of analytic p-valent functions and its connections with some famous subclasses of analytic and univalent functions associated with shell-like curve and modified sigmoid function in the open unit disk E= {z : z |<1}. In particular, the coefficient condition for function f(z) belonging to the class Bp (λ, β) is investigated using a succinct mathematical approach. In addition, as a special case, convex functions of order 1/4 are shown to be in the aforementioned class Bp(λ, β) in E. With the aid of subordination principle, the authors obtain the first three Taylor-Maclaurin coefficients |ap+1 | , |ap+2 | and |ap+3 | as well as the Fekete-Szegö functional |ap+2 -ηa2p+1| for functions f(z) belonging to the class Bp(λ, β, σ;p ̃) involving modified sigmoid function and associated with shell-like curve.
本文引入并研究了开单位圆盘E= {z: z |<1}上一类新的解析p价函数及其与壳形曲线和修正s型函数相关的解析函数和一元函数的一些著名子类的联系。特别地,用简洁的数学方法研究了Bp (λ, β)类函数f(z)的系数条件。此外,作为特例,我们证明了1/4阶凸函数在e中的上述类Bp(λ, β)中是存在的。利用隶属原理,我们得到了Bp(λ, β, σ;p /)类函数f(z)的前三个Taylor-Maclaurin系数|ap+1 |、|ap+2 |和|ap+3 |,以及与壳状曲线相关的修正s型函数f(z)的Fekete-Szegö泛函|ap+2 -ηa2p+1|。
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引用次数: 1
STABILITY AND BIFURCATION ANALYSIS OF COVID-19 MATHEMATICAL MODEL INCORPORATING CASE DETECTION 纳入病例检测的COVID-19数学模型的稳定性和分岔分析
Pub Date : 2022-02-14 DOI: 10.24191/mjoc.v7i1.13665
O. Odetunde, M. Ibrahim, O. T. Olotu, O. Uwaheren, S. T. Akinyemi
COVID-19 became a household name globally in the year 2020 after it was first discovered in Wuhan, China in December 2019. It is a global pandemic that shut the economy of all nations in the larger part of year 2020 by forcing a compulsory holiday on mankind due to its threat of mass death. The menace of this pandemic was combated with the total arsenal in human capacity. One of such weapons is case detection that leads to either self-isolation or quarantine. This weapon helps to reduce the number of new cases that may arise from undetected asymptomatic/symptomatic carriers within a population. In this article, the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission were studied by developing a mathematical model incorporating case detection, the impact of sensitization, and role of early diagnosis in curbing the spread of this disease. The basic properties in terms of existence, uniqueness, and boundedness of solution for the formulated model were discussed. Also, the model was found to exhibit two equilibrium states which are categorised as the disease-free (DFE) and pandemic equilibrium states. The reproductive number for the model was computed and used to establish the stability analysis for both equilibrium states. Center manifold theory was employed to assess the bifurcation analysis of the model and the result shows that the model exhibits forward bifurcation when the reproductive number is greater than and equal to 1.
2019年12月,新冠肺炎在中国武汉首次被发现,并于2020年成为全球家喻户晓的名字。这是一场全球性的流行病,由于大规模死亡的威胁,它迫使人类强制性放假,在2020年的大部分时间里,所有国家的经济都关闭了。这一大流行病的威胁是用人类的全部能力来对付的。其中一种武器是发现病例,导致自我隔离或隔离。这一武器有助于减少人群中未被发现的无症状/有症状携带者可能引起的新病例数量。本文通过建立一个数学模型,结合病例发现、致敏影响和早期诊断在遏制该疾病传播中的作用,研究了COVID-19的传播动态。讨论了该模型解的存在性、唯一性和有界性等基本性质。此外,发现该模型表现出两种平衡状态,即无病(DFE)和大流行平衡状态。计算了模型的繁殖数,并用于建立两种平衡状态的稳定性分析。采用中心流形理论对模型进行分岔分析,结果表明,当再生数大于等于1时,模型出现正向分岔。
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引用次数: 0
IMPROVING THE EFFICIENCY OF UNIVERSITY LIBRARIES IN MALAYSIA USING ZERO-SUM GAINS DEA MODEL 利用零和收益dea模型提高马来西亚大学图书馆的效率
Pub Date : 2022-02-14 DOI: 10.24191/mjoc.v7i1.14860
Aqilah Nadirah Saliman, Noor Asiah Ramli, Mad Ithnin bin Salleh
Measuring the efficiency and optimizing available resources are vital for library management. This research empirically examines the measurement of efficiency of 10 public university libraries in Malaysia and provides an opportunity for inefficient libraries to improve their efficiency by proposing the appropriate number of resources. Data encompassing the number of staff, materials availability, and material circulation were gathered between 2016 and 2019. This study implements the zero-sum gains data envelopment analysis (ZSG-DEA) model to improve the efficiency. The findings show that in the early stage, five libraries were efficient in 2016 and 2018 while six libraries were efficient in 2017 and 2019. Comparable efficiency scores between conventional DEA and ZSG-DEA can be seen as all the inefficient libraries manage to attain better efficiency scores. Overall, all inefficient libraries can increase their efficiency rates. Despite the scores still not achieving the highest rate of efficiency, this study may assist librarians on managing library operations efficiently.
衡量效率和优化可用资源对图书馆管理至关重要。本研究实证检验了马来西亚10所公立大学图书馆的效率测量,并通过提出适当数量的资源,为效率低下的图书馆提供了提高效率的机会。2016年至2019年期间收集了包括员工数量、材料可用性和材料流通在内的数据。本研究采用零和收益数据包络分析(ZSG-DEA)模型来提高效率。研究结果表明,在早期阶段,2016年和2018年有5家图书馆高效,2017年和2019年有6家图书馆高效。传统DEA和ZSG-DEA之间的效率分数比较可以看出,所有低效的库都设法获得更好的效率分数。总的来说,所有效率低下的库都可以提高它们的效率。尽管分数仍然没有达到最高的效率,但本研究可以帮助图书馆员有效地管理图书馆的运作。
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引用次数: 0
ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACTS OF OIL PRICES ON NIGERIA ECONOMY USING COBB-DOUGLAS PRODUCTION FUNCTION 利用柯布-道格拉斯生产函数评价石油价格对尼日利亚经济的影响
Pub Date : 2022-02-07 DOI: 10.24191/mjoc.v7i1.11839
M. Garba, Aliu Omotayo Sikiru
Fluctuations in oil prices have been a global issue over the years. Although many studies have been carried out the majority of those studies relating to oil prices focused more on its effects on oil-consuming nations than oil-producing ones. This study, however, examines the vulnerability of the economy of the oil-producing country to oil price changes using Nigeria being an OPEC member as a case study. The Cobb-Douglas production function was used to formulate the appropriate model that relates oil prices with the economy of Nigeria. However, the close to close (standard deviation) volatility method was used to measure the amount of variability in oil prices. Nevertheless, the perpetual inventory method was used to estimate the accumulated physical capital of Nigeria and the problems of multicollinearity inherent in the data were attenuated using ridge regression techniques as capital cannot be left out while dealing with production.
多年来,油价波动一直是一个全球性问题。虽然已经进行了许多研究,但大多数与石油价格有关的研究更多地关注石油消费国的影响,而不是石油生产国。然而,本研究以石油输出国组织成员国尼日利亚为例,考察了石油生产国经济对石油价格变化的脆弱性。利用柯布-道格拉斯生产函数建立了油价与尼日利亚经济关系的模型。然而,使用近距离(标准差)波动率方法来衡量油价的变异性。然而,永续盘存法用于估计尼日利亚的累积实物资本,并且使用脊回归技术减弱了数据中固有的多重共线性问题,因为在处理生产时不能遗漏资本。
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引用次数: 0
Unified Functional Method for Solving General Polynomial Equations of Degree Less Than Five 求解一般小于五次多项式方程的统一泛函方法
Pub Date : 2021-09-30 DOI: 10.24191/mjoc.v6i2.11922
D. F. Nwosu, O. C. Okoli, Amaka Monica Ezeonyebuchi, A. T. Tiruneh
A unified method for solving that incorporate a computational formula that relate the coefficients of the depressed equation and the coefficients of the standard polynomial equation is proposed in this study. This is to ensure that this method is valid for all   It shall apply the undetermined parameter method of auxiliary function to obtain solutions to these polynomial equations of degree less than five in one variable.  In particular, the result of our work is a unification and improvement on the work of several authors in the sense that only applicable for the case of polynomial equation of degree one. Finally, our results improve and generalize the result by applying standard formula methods for solving higher degree polynomials. It is recommended that the effort should be made toward providing other variant methods that are simpler and friendly.
本文提出了一种统一的求解方法,该方法结合了一个计算公式,该计算公式将消沉方程的系数与标准多项式方程的系数联系起来。这是为了保证该方法对所有的多项式方程都是有效的。对于这些单变量小于五次的多项式方程,应采用辅助函数待定参数法求解。特别地,我们的工作结果是对几位作者的工作的统一和改进,即只适用于一次多项式方程的情况。最后,通过应用标准公式方法求解高次多项式,改进和推广了上述结果。建议应该努力提供其他更简单和友好的变体方法。
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引用次数: 0
THE STABILITY OF THE CRITICAL POINTS OF THE GENERALIZED GAUSE TYPE PREDATOR-PREY FISHERY MODELS WITH PROPORTIONAL HARVESTING AND TIME DELAY 具有比例收获和时滞的广义高斯型捕食-食饵渔业模型临界点的稳定性
Pub Date : 2021-09-21 DOI: 10.24191/mjoc.v6i2.9905
Wan Natasha Wan Hussin, R. Embong, Che Noorlia Noor
In the marine ecosystem, the time delay or lag may occur in the predator response function, which measures the rate of capture of prey by a predator. This is because, when the growth of the prey population is null at the time delay period, the predator’s growth is affected by its population and prey population densities only after the time delay period. Therefore, the generalized Gause type predator-prey fishery models with a selective proportional harvesting rate of fish and time lag in the Holling type II predator response function are proposed to simulate and solve the population dynamical problem. From the mathematical analysis of the models, a certain dimension of time delays in the predator response or reaction function can change originally stable non-trivial critical points to unstable ones. This is due to the existence of the Hopf bifurcation that measures the critical values of the time lag, which will affect the stabilities of the non-trivial critical points of the models. Therefore, the effects of increasing and decreasing the values of selective proportional harvesting rate terms of prey and predator on the stabilities of the non-trivial critical points of the fishery models were analysed. Results have shown that, by increasing the values of the total proportion of prey and predator harvesting denoted by qx Ex and qy Ey respectively, within the range 0.3102 ≤ qx Ex ≤ 0.9984 and 0.5049 ≤ qy Ey ≤ 0.5363, the originally unstable non-trivial critical points of the fishery models can be stable.
在海洋生态系统中,衡量捕食者捕获猎物速度的捕食者反应函数可能会出现时间延迟或滞后。这是因为,当猎物种群的增长在时滞期为零时,捕食者的增长仅在时滞期之后才受到其种群和猎物种群密度的影响。因此,提出了具有选择性比例捕获率和Holling II型捕食者响应函数时滞的广义高斯型捕食-食饵渔业模型来模拟和求解种群动态问题。从模型的数学分析来看,捕食者反应或反应函数中某一维度的时滞可以使原本稳定的非平凡临界点变为不稳定临界点。这是由于测量时滞临界值的Hopf分岔的存在,它会影响模型非平凡临界点的稳定性。因此,分析了增加和减少猎物和捕食者的选择性比例收获率项值对渔业模型非平凡临界点稳定性的影响。结果表明,在0.3102≤qx Ex≤0.9984和0.5049≤qy Ey≤0.5363范围内,通过增加被捕食者和捕食者的总捕获比例qx Ex和qy Ey的值,渔业模型原本不稳定的非平凡临界点可以趋于稳定。
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引用次数: 1
STABILITY ANALYSIS OF A PROPOSED SCHEME OF ORDER FIVE FOR FIRST ORDER ORDINARY DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS 一阶常微分方程五阶格式的稳定性分析
Pub Date : 2021-09-21 DOI: 10.24191/mjoc.v6i2.9756
S. E. Fadugba, R. Ogunrinde, R. R. Ogunrinde
This paper presents the stability analysis of a proposed scheme of order five (FCM) for first order Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs). The proposed FCM is derived by means of an interpolating function of polynomial and exponential forms. The properties of FCM were discussed extensively. The linear stability of FCM in the context of the Third Order One-Step Method (TCM) and Second Order One-Step Method (SCM) for the solution of initial value problems of first order differential equations is presented. The stability region of FCM, TCM and SCM is investigated using the Dahlquist’s test equation. The numerical results obtained via FCM are compared with TCM and SCM. Moreover, by varying the step length, the accuracy and convergence of the methods in terms of the final absolute relative error are measured. The results show that FCM converges faster and more stable than its counterparts.
本文给出了一阶常微分方程的五阶格式的稳定性分析。所提出的FCM是通过多项式和指数形式的插值函数推导出来的。对FCM的性质进行了广泛的讨论。给出了三阶一步法和二阶一步法求解一阶微分方程初值问题时FCM的线性稳定性。利用Dahlquist检验方程研究了FCM、TCM和SCM的稳定区域。将FCM得到的数值结果与TCM和SCM进行了比较。此外,通过改变步长,测量了方法在最终绝对相对误差方面的精度和收敛性。结果表明,FCM算法收敛速度快,稳定性好。
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引用次数: 0
PROJECT-BASED INCIDENT RATE BASED ON WEIGHTED AVERAGE METHOD 基于加权平均方法的基于项目的事故率
Pub Date : 2021-09-21 DOI: 10.24191/mjoc.v6i2.13145
K. Rasmani, N. Yusof, N. Amit, N. M. Lip, H. Ramli, Nuraina Nadiah Rosli, Anis Dayana Rusli
The incident rate has been widely used to indicate safety performance. The incident rate of a company can be compared with the national or international incident rate within similar  industry or among different type of industries. The comparison is particularly very useful as a safety benchmark to gauge performance with other companies in the same business area. However, many existing methods produce the annual incident rate, which has been formulated on an annual basis. This will lead to incompatibility of the method used in calculating the incident rate for a project that runs for a specific period. This is because the annual incident rate does not consider the duration of the project; it  becomes less meaningful in indicating the safety performance of project-based activities such as those in construction industries. The proposed method which is Project-Based Incident Rate (PIR) is found to be able to reflect the actual situation of project-based companies better than the existing annual incident rate method, and it is also can be expressed both on a monthly and yearly basis.
事故率已被广泛用于表示安全性能。一个公司的事故率可以与同类行业或不同类型行业的国内或国际事故率进行比较。这种比较作为衡量与同一业务领域其他公司业绩的安全基准尤其有用。然而,许多现有的方法产生年事故率,这是按年制定的。这将导致在计算特定时期运行的项目的事故率时使用的方法不兼容。这是因为年事故率没有考虑项目的持续时间;它在指示以项目为基础的活动(如建筑行业的活动)的安全绩效方面变得不那么有意义。我们发现所提出的基于项目的事故率(Project-Based Incident Rate, PIR)方法比现有的年度事故率方法更能反映项目型公司的实际情况,并且可以按月和按年表示。
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引用次数: 0
Machine Learning Techniques for Heart Failure Prediction 心力衰竭预测的机器学习技术
Pub Date : 2021-08-10 DOI: 10.24191/mjoc.v6i2.13708
Nur Shahellin Mansur Huang, Z. Ibrahim, N. Diah
This paper discusses the performance of four popular machine learning techniques for predicting heart failure using a publicly available dataset from kaggle.com, which are Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Naive Bayes (NB), and Logistic Regression (LR).  They were selected due to their good performance in medical-related applications.  Heart failure is a common public health problem, and there is a need to improve the management of heart failure cases to increase the survival rate.  The vast amount of medical data related to heart failure and the availability of powerful computing devices allow researchers to conduct more experiments. The performance of the machine learning techniques was measured by accuracy, precision, recall, f1-score, sensitivity, and specificity in predicting heart failure with 13 symptoms or features. Experimental analysis showed that RF produces the highest performance score, which is 0.88 compared to SVM, NB, and LR.  Further experiments with RF were also conducted to determine the important features in predicting heart failure, and the results indicated that all 13 symptoms or features are important.
本文使用来自kaggle.com的公开数据集讨论了四种流行的机器学习技术在预测心力衰竭方面的性能,这四种技术是随机森林(RF),支持向量机(SVM),朴素贝叶斯(NB)和逻辑回归(LR)。他们被选中是因为他们在医疗相关应用中的良好表现。心衰是一种常见的公共卫生问题,有必要改善对心衰病例的管理,以提高生存率。与心力衰竭相关的大量医疗数据和强大的计算设备的可用性使研究人员可以进行更多的实验。机器学习技术的性能通过预测具有13种症状或特征的心力衰竭的准确性、精密度、召回率、f1评分、敏感性和特异性来衡量。实验分析表明,与SVM、NB和LR相比,RF的性能得分最高,为0.88。还进行了进一步的RF实验,以确定预测心力衰竭的重要特征,结果表明所有13种症状或特征都很重要。
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引用次数: 6
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MALAYSIAN JOURNAL OF COMPUTING
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