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Implied Volatility Surface: Construction Methodologies and Characteristics 隐含波动面:构造方法与特征
Pub Date : 2011-07-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1882567
Cristian Homescu
The implied volatility surface (IVS) is a fundamental building block in computational finance. We provide a survey of methodologies for constructing such surfaces. We also discuss various topics which can influence the successful construction of IVS in practice: arbitrage-free conditions in both strike and time, how to perform extrapolation outside the core region, choice of calibrating functional and selection of numerical optimization algorithms, volatility surface dynamics and asymptotics.
隐含波动面(IVS)是计算金融的基本组成部分。我们提供了构造这样的曲面的方法的调查。我们还讨论了在实践中影响IVS成功构建的各种主题:罢工和时间的无套利条件,如何在核心区域外进行外推,校准函数的选择和数值优化算法的选择,波动面动力学和渐近性。
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引用次数: 64
Negative Probabilities in Financial Modeling 金融建模中的负概率
Pub Date : 2011-02-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1773077
G. Meissner, Dr. Mark Burgin
We first define and derive general properties of negative probabilities. We then show how negative probabilities can be applied to modeling financial options such as Caps and Floors. In trading practice, these options are typically valued in a Black-Scholes-Merton framework assuming a lognormal distribution for the underlying interest rate. However, in some cases, such as the 2008/2009 financial crisis, interest rates can get negative. Then the lognormal distribution is inapplicable. We show how negative probabilities associated with negative interest rates can be applied to value interest rate options. A model in VBA, which prices Caps and Floors with negative probabilities, is available upon request. A follow up paper will address bigger than unity probabilities in financial modeling.
我们首先定义并推导出负概率的一般性质。然后,我们将展示如何将负概率应用于诸如上限和下限等金融选项的建模。在交易实践中,这些期权通常在假设基础利率为对数正态分布的Black-Scholes-Merton框架中进行估值。然而,在某些情况下,比如2008/2009年的金融危机,利率可能会变为负值。那么对数正态分布就不适用了。我们展示了与负利率相关的负概率如何应用于价值利率期权。VBA中的一个模型,可以根据要求为负概率的上限和下限定价。后续论文将讨论金融建模中大于单位的概率。
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引用次数: 27
Optimal Execution of Derivatives 衍生品的最优执行
Pub Date : 2009-09-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1714094
P. Novotný
We present a model for optimal execution of the financial derivatives. We show that if rehedging of the underwriter of the derivative is considered, the optimal strategy is generally non-deterministic even for deterministic price impact functions. This approach can be utilized for optimal execution of the risky asset when the price impact functions are measurable with respect to the filtration generated by the risky asset.
我们提出了一个金融衍生品的最优执行模型。我们证明,如果考虑到衍生品承销商的再套期保值,即使对于确定性的价格影响函数,最优策略通常也是不确定性的。当价格影响函数相对于风险资产产生的过滤是可测量的时,这种方法可以用于风险资产的最佳执行。
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引用次数: 0
Malliavin Differentiability of a Class of Feller-Diffusions with Relevance in Finance 金融学中一类具有相关性的费勒扩散的Malliavin可微性
Pub Date : 2009-06-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1425855
C. Ewald, Yajun Xiao, Yang Zou, T. Siu
In this paper we discuss the Malliavin differentiability of a particular class of Feller diffusions which we call $delta$-diffusions. This class is given by begin{equation*} dnu_t=kappa(theta-nu_t))dt eta nu_t^{delta}dmathbb W_t^2, deltain[frac{1}{2},1] end{equation*} and appears to be of relevance in Finance, in particular for interest and foreign-exchange models, as well as in the context of stochastic volatility models. We extend the result obtained in Alos and Ewald (2008) for $delta=frac{1}{2}$ and proof Malliavin differentiability for all $delta in [frac{1}{2},1]$.
本文讨论了一类特殊的Feller扩散的Malliavin可微性,我们称之为$delta$ -扩散。本课程由begin{equation*} dnu_t=kappa(theta-nu_t))dt eta nu_t^{delta}dmathbb W_t^2, deltain[frac{1}{2},1] end{equation*}提供,似乎与金融相关,特别是利息和外汇模型,以及随机波动率模型。我们推广了Alos和Ewald(2008)关于$delta=frac{1}{2}$的结果,并证明了所有$delta in [frac{1}{2},1]$的Malliavin可微性。
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引用次数: 4
A Stock Market Model 股票市场模型
Pub Date : 2008-11-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1293949
M. Gordon, S. Sethi
A stock market model is presented that advances our understanding of the portfolio-consumption policy of investors and the behaviour of capital market statistics. The model's building blocks are the Samuelson-Merton model of portfolio-consumption policy, the Gordon-Sethi extension of that model to recognize bankruptcy, the Gordon dividend growth model for pricing a share, and the assumption that the system is closed. The last assumption makes price and expected return adjust to persuade investors to hold the outstanding shares and bonds. Analysis and simulation of the model reveal, among other things, that (1) the market is more stable and it performs better when investors have increasing relative risk aversion; and (2) the average infinite horizon return on a share falls below the average realized holding period return to a degree that varies with the volatility in the latter's return. Further advances in knowledge should follow from withdrawal of the simplifying assumptions that were employed to make clear the model's basic structure.
提出了一个股票市场模型,提高了我们对投资者的投资组合消费政策和资本市场统计行为的理解。该模型的组成部分是萨缪尔森-默顿投资组合-消费政策模型,戈登-塞西对该模型的扩展以识别破产,戈登股息增长模型用于定价股票,以及系统关闭的假设。最后一个假设使价格和预期收益调整,以说服投资者持有发行在外的股票和债券。对模型的分析和仿真表明:(1)当投资者的相对风险厌恶程度增加时,市场更加稳定,市场表现更好;(2)股票无限期平均收益率低于已实现持有期平均收益率的程度随已实现持有期收益率的波动率而变化。知识的进一步发展应该是在取消用来明确模型基本结构的简化假设之后。
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引用次数: 0
Electronic Communication Networks, Market Makers, and the Components of the Bid-Ask Spread 电子通讯网络,做市商和买卖价差的组成部分
Pub Date : 2008-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1024867
P.R. Daves, T. S. Strother, James W. Wansley
Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to investigate how quotes originating via electronic communication networks (ECN)s affect trading costs. Design/methodology/approach - In order to investigate the relations between trading costs and quotation venue, the bid-ask spread is decomposed into its theoretical cost components associated with adverse selection, inventory handling, and order processing. Findings - Stoll's adverse selection costs of ECN-originated quotes relate positively to effective spreads, while Lin Originality/value - The paper shows how trading costs relate to trading venue choice by decomposing the bid-ask spread.
目的-本文的目的是调查通过电子通信网络(ECN)产生的报价如何影响交易成本。设计/方法/方法-为了调查交易成本和报价地点之间的关系,买卖价差被分解为与逆向选择、库存处理和订单处理相关的理论成本组成部分。研究发现- Stoll的ecn报价逆向选择成本与有效价差正相关,而Lin的原创性/价值-论文通过分解买卖价差显示了交易成本与交易场所选择的关系。
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引用次数: 3
Classical, Singular, and Impulse Stochastic Control for the Optimal Dividend Policy when There is Regime Switching 最优股利策略的经典、奇异和脉冲随机控制
Pub Date : 2008-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1139444
Luz R. Sotomayor, A. Cadenillas
Motivated by economic and empirical arguments, we consider a company whose cash reservoir is affected by macroeconomic conditions. Specifically, we model the cash reservoir as a Brownian motion with drift and volatility modulated by an observable continuous-time Markov chain that represents the regime of the economy. The objective of the management is to select the dividend policy that maximizes the expected total discounted dividend payments to be received by the shareholders. We study three different cases: bounded dividend rates, unbounded dividend rates, and the case in which there are fixed costs and taxes associated to the dividend payments. These cases generate, respectively, problems of classical stochastic control with regime switching, singular stochastic control with regime switching,and stochastic impulse control with regime switching (a new problem in the stochastic control literature). We solve these problems, and obtain the first analytical solutions for the optimal dividend policy in the presence of business cycles. Our results shows, among other things, that the optimal dividend policy depends strongly on macroeconomic conditions.
在经济和实证论证的推动下,我们考虑了一家现金储备受宏观经济条件影响的公司。具体来说,我们将现金储备建模为具有漂移和波动的布朗运动,该运动由可观察的连续时间马尔可夫链调制,该链代表经济体制。管理层的目标是选择股息政策,使股东收到的预期总贴现股息支付最大化。我们研究了三种不同的情况:有界股息率,无界股息率,以及与股息支付相关的固定成本和税收的情况。这些情况分别产生了带状态切换的经典随机控制问题、带状态切换的奇异随机控制问题和带状态切换的随机脉冲控制问题(随机控制文献中的新问题)。我们对这些问题进行了求解,得到了经济周期存在下最优股利政策的第一个解析解。我们的结果表明,除其他因素外,最优股息政策在很大程度上取决于宏观经济条件。
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引用次数: 22
IPO as an Optimal Stopping Time: A Structural Estimation IPO作为最优停止时间:一个结构估计
Pub Date : 2007-12-31 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.1107924
Sudip Gupta, John Rust
Going public is an important milestone for a firm. There are significant benefits and costs associated with the decision of being listed. On one hand the firm can raise the required capital for investment and firm growth through the IPO, make the firm more visible, transfer the risk to shareholders, and relax the borrowing constraints. It has significant implications for the product market competition too. The amount of cash generated through IPO if invested may also affect the future product market competition and the firm's profitability. On the other hand, going public is associated with significant amount of fixed costs and costs associated being under increased public scrutiny. The IPO process and the uncertainty associated are further complicated by the adverse selection problem associated with a firm taken public. The investors are asymmetrically informed about the future prospects of the firm relative to the management. The informational superiority of the firm leads to the standard lemons problem. The firm has to underprice the issue to give enough incentives to issuer to invest in the IPO. This is an indirect cost and lowers the IPO proceeds. The firm would therefore want to signal about its future prospects through its recent past performances. Hence going public decision and its implications are inherently dynamic in nature. The (management of the) firm thus wants to time the IPO decision well. Many of the associated costs and benefits are hidden. In this paper we formulate a dynamic programming based structural model of the decision to go public and estimate these hidden parameters using data from Indian IPOs. We model the going public decision as an optimal stopping time problem for a firm in a dynamic setting. Each period the management of the utility maximizing firm decides whether to list the firm or not. The source of management's consumption is the profit it generates through its profit maximizing investment decisions for the firm. Each period the management decides (a discrete choice) whether to take the firm public or not. Given its going public decision it chooses the level of investment (continuous choice) and consumes the rest. If the firm decides to go public, the firm makes the static (continuous choice) decision of how much of the firm to sell (dilution) and how much of the IPO proceed to reinvest. Although these decisions are static, its implications are dynamic in nature. The dilution decision is an outcome of the trade off between the IPO proceeds and the claim of the management on the future profits and private benefits of control of the firm. The IPO proceed reinvest decision is an equilibrium outcome of the trade off between the cash out prospect and future profitability improvement (hence improved managerial income) of the firm. We formulate a dynamic programming model and characterize the equilibrium. We outline a dynamic programming based structural estimation procedure to estimate the model parameters. The mod
我们对不同类型风险的IPO收益和低估定价进行了回归,发现企业特定风险对IPO收益的影响呈负相关。由于与公开决策相关的固有选择和内生性偏差,我们使用Heckman选择估计来估计这种回归。结构估算得出了上市过程的固定成本。这一固定成本包括承销费用以及与上市决策相关的机会成本。高固定利率在一定程度上解释了为什么其他类似的公司尽管收益明显却不上市。其他基本参数包括手头项目的未观察质量。结构估计过程有助于我们进行反事实实验:例如,如果在线公开决策减少了固定成本,以及它对公开决策的影响。它对信息的传递等有什么影响?据我们所知,这是第一篇从结构角度分析上市决策并对其进行评估的论文。
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引用次数: 1
Let's Jump Together - Pricing of Credit Derivatives: From Index Swaptions to CPPIs 让我们一起跳——信用衍生品的定价:从指数掉期到cppi
Pub Date : 2007-05-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1358704
João Garcia, S. Goossens, W. Schoutens
This paper describes a dynamic multivariate jump driven model in a credit setting. We set up a dynamic Levy model, more precisely a Multivariate Variance Gamma (VG) model, for a series of correlated spreads. The parameters of the model come from a two step calibration procedure. First, a joint calibration on swaptions on the spreads is performed and second, a correlation matching procedure is applied. For the first calibration step, we make use of equity-like pricing formulas for payer and receiver swaptions, based on the characteristic function and the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) method. In the second calibration step, we fix the correlation in the model to match the prescribed (in casu historically observed) correlation. This can be done fast since a closed form expression is readily available. The resulting jump driven dynamic model generates correlated spreads very fast. This model can be used to price a whole range of exotic structures. We illustrate this by pricing the currently popular credit Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance (CPPI) structures. Because of the built in jump dynamics a better assessment of gap risk is possible.
本文描述了一个信用环境下的动态多元跳跃驱动模型。我们为一系列相关价差建立了一个动态Levy模型,更准确地说是一个多元方差伽马(VG)模型。模型的参数来自两步校准过程。首先对差值交换进行联合校准,然后应用相关匹配过程。对于第一个校准步骤,我们基于特征函数和快速傅里叶变换(FFT)方法,使用类似股票的支付方和接收方交换定价公式。在第二个校准步骤中,我们固定模型中的相关性以匹配规定的(在历史上观察到的)相关性。这可以很快完成,因为可以随时使用封闭形式表达式。由此产生的跳跃驱动的动态模型可以非常快地生成相关价差。这个模型可以用来给一系列奇特的建筑定价。我们通过为当前流行的信贷固定比例投资组合保险(CPPI)结构定价来说明这一点。由于内置的跳跃动力学,可以更好地评估间隙风险。
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引用次数: 3
Monetary Theory of Inflation and the LBD in Transactions Technology 通货膨胀货币理论与交易技术中的LBD
Pub Date : 2004-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1105025
Constantin Gurdgiev
Classical models of inflation, utilising the transactions-based demand for money, predict that monetary policy will be ineffective in changing real variables. In response to this, the New Keynesian sticky-price models assume price-rigidity in order to address the possibility for the existence of real effects of monetary policy. At the same time, both major theories have difficulty in explaining persistency in the money demand of households in the absence of uncertainty. We develop a flexible price model with endogenous transactions-costs driven demand for money that captures the possibility for real effects of monetary policy and accounts for the persistency of money demand. In our model, persistency is derived from transactions technology that assumes the existence of learning-by-doing effects in shopping costs. We proceed to compare the model with the standard monetary model of inflation.
利用基于交易的货币需求的经典通胀模型预测,货币政策在改变实际变量方面将是无效的。针对这一点,新凯恩斯主义的粘性价格模型假设价格刚性,以解决货币政策存在实际影响的可能性。与此同时,两大理论都难以解释在不确定性缺失的情况下家庭货币需求的持续性。我们开发了一个具有内生交易成本驱动的货币需求的灵活价格模型,该模型捕捉了货币政策产生实际效果的可能性,并解释了货币需求的持久性。在我们的模型中,持久性来源于交易技术,该技术假定在购物成本中存在“边做边学”效应。我们接着将该模型与通货膨胀的标准货币模型进行比较。
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引用次数: 0
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Financial Engineering eJournal
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