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Asymptotic Optimality of Myopic Ranking and Selection Procedures 近视眼排序与选择程序的渐近最优性
Pub Date : 2022-11-27 DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2211.14723
Yanwen Li, Siyang Gao, Zhongshun Shi
Ranking and selection (R&S) is a popular model for studying discrete-event dynamic systems. It aims to select the best design (the design with the largest mean performance) from a finite set, where the mean of each design is unknown and has to be learned by samples. Great research efforts have been devoted to this problem in the literature for developing procedures with superior empirical performance and showing their optimality. In these efforts, myopic procedures were popular. They select the best design using a 'naive' mechanism of iteratively and myopically improving an approximation of the objective measure. Although they are based on simple heuristics and lack theoretical support, they turned out highly effective, and often achieved competitive empirical performance compared to procedures that were proposed later and shown to be asymptotically optimal. In this paper, we theoretically analyze these myopic procedures and prove that they also satisfy the optimality conditions of R&S, just like some other popular R&S methods. It explains the good performance of myopic procedures in various numerical tests, and provides good insight into the structure and theoretical development of efficient R&S procedures.
排序与选择(R&S)模型是研究离散事件动态系统的常用模型。它旨在从有限的集合中选择最佳设计(具有最大平均性能的设计),其中每个设计的平均值是未知的,必须通过样本学习。为了开发具有卓越经验性能的程序并显示其最优性,文献中对这一问题进行了大量的研究。在这些努力中,近视手术很受欢迎。他们使用一种“朴素”的机制来选择最好的设计,这种机制是迭代和近视地改进客观测量的近似值。尽管它们是基于简单的启发式,缺乏理论支持,但它们被证明是非常有效的,与后来提出的、被证明是渐近最优的程序相比,它们往往取得了有竞争力的经验表现。本文从理论上对这些近视眼方法进行了分析,并证明了它们与其他一些流行的近视眼方法一样,也满足R&S的最优性条件。它解释了近视程序在各种数值试验中的良好性能,并为有效的R&S程序的结构和理论发展提供了很好的见解。
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引用次数: 1
Convergence Rate Analysis for Optimal Computing Budget Allocation Algorithms 最优计算预算分配算法的收敛率分析
Pub Date : 2022-11-27 DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2211.14722
Yanwen Li, Siyang Gao
Ordinal optimization (OO) is a widely-studied technique for optimizing discrete-event dynamic systems (DEDS). It evaluates the performance of the system designs in a finite set by sampling and aims to correctly make ordinal comparison of the designs. A well-known method in OO is the optimal computing budget allocation (OCBA). It builds the optimality conditions for the number of samples allocated to each design, and the sample allocation that satisfies the optimality conditions is shown to asymptotically maximize the probability of correct selection for the best design. In this paper, we investigate two popular OCBA algorithms. With known variances for samples of each design, we characterize their convergence rates with respect to different performance measures. We first demonstrate that the two OCBA algorithms achieve the optimal convergence rate under measures of probability of correct selection and expected opportunity cost. It fills the void of convergence analysis for OCBA algorithms. Next, we extend our analysis to the measure of cumulative regret, a main measure studied in the field of machine learning. We show that with minor modification, the two OCBA algorithms can reach the optimal convergence rate under cumulative regret. It indicates the potential of broader use of algorithms designed based on the OCBA optimality conditions.
有序优化(OO)是一种被广泛研究的离散事件动态系统优化技术。它通过抽样来评价系统设计在有限集合中的性能,目的是正确地对设计进行有序比较。面向对象中一个著名的方法是最优计算预算分配(OCBA)。建立了分配给每个设计的样本数量的最优性条件,并证明满足最优性条件的样本分配使最佳设计的正确选择概率渐近最大化。本文研究了两种流行的OCBA算法。在每个设计样本的已知方差下,我们描述了它们相对于不同性能度量的收敛率。我们首先证明了在正确选择概率和期望机会成本的度量下,两种OCBA算法都达到了最优收敛速度。它填补了OCBA算法收敛性分析的空白。接下来,我们将分析扩展到累积后悔的度量,这是机器学习领域研究的一个主要度量。结果表明,在累积遗憾情况下,两种OCBA算法只需稍加修改即可达到最优收敛速度。这表明基于OCBA最优性条件设计的算法具有广泛应用的潜力。
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引用次数: 2
Hidden Factor estimation in Dynamic Generalized Factor Analysis Models 动态广义因子分析模型中的隐因子估计
Pub Date : 2022-11-23 DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2211.12789
G. Picci, Lucia Falconi, A. Ferrante, M. Zorzi
This paper deals with the estimation of the hidden factor in Dynamic Generalized Factor Analysis via a generalization of Kalman filtering. Asymptotic consistency is discussed and it is shown that the Kalman one-step predictor is not the right tool while the pure filter yields a consistent estimate.
本文通过对卡尔曼滤波的推广,研究了动态广义因子分析中隐因子的估计问题。讨论了渐近一致性,并表明卡尔曼一步预测器不是正确的工具,而纯滤波器产生一致估计。
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引用次数: 1
Deep Subspace Encoders for Nonlinear System Identification 非线性系统辨识的深子空间编码器
Pub Date : 2022-10-26 DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2210.14816
G. Beintema, M. Schoukens, R. T'oth
Using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) for nonlinear system identification has proven to be a promising approach, but despite of all recent research efforts, many practical and theoretical problems still remain open. Specifically, noise handling and models, issues of consistency and reliable estimation under minimisation of the prediction error are the most severe problems. The latter comes with numerous practical challenges such as explosion of the computational cost in terms of the number of data samples and the occurrence of instabilities during optimization. In this paper, we aim to overcome these issues by proposing a method which uses a truncated prediction loss and a subspace encoder for state estimation. The truncated prediction loss is computed by selecting multiple truncated subsections from the time series and computing the average prediction loss. To obtain a computationally efficient estimation method that minimizes the truncated prediction loss, a subspace encoder represented by an artificial neural network is introduced. This encoder aims to approximate the state reconstructability map of the estimated model to provide an initial state for each truncated subsection given past inputs and outputs. By theoretical analysis, we show that, under mild conditions, the proposed method is locally consistent, increases optimization stability, and achieves increased data efficiency by allowing for overlap between the subsections. Lastly, we provide practical insights and user guidelines employing a numerical example and state-of-the-art benchmark results.
使用人工神经网络(ANN)进行非线性系统辨识已被证明是一种很有前途的方法,但尽管最近的研究努力,许多实际和理论问题仍然存在。具体来说,噪声处理和模型、一致性问题和预测误差最小化下的可靠估计是最严重的问题。后者带来了许多实际挑战,例如数据样本数量的计算成本激增以及优化过程中不稳定的发生。在本文中,我们的目标是通过提出一种使用截断预测损失和子空间编码器进行状态估计的方法来克服这些问题。截断的预测损失是通过从时间序列中选择多个截断的子段并计算平均预测损失来计算的。为了获得一种计算效率高且预测损失最小的估计方法,引入了一种以人工神经网络为代表的子空间编码器。该编码器旨在近似估计模型的状态重构映射,为给定过去输入和输出的每个截断分段提供初始状态。通过理论分析,我们表明,在温和的条件下,所提出的方法是局部一致的,增加了优化稳定性,并通过允许子段之间的重叠来提高数据效率。最后,我们提供了实用的见解和用户指南,采用数值示例和最先进的基准测试结果。
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引用次数: 8
Control Design under Actuator Saturation and Multi-Rate Sampling 执行器饱和和多速率采样的控制设计
Pub Date : 2022-10-19 DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2210.10868
Francesco Ferrante, R. Sanfelice, S. Tarbouriech
The problem of designing a stabilizing feedback controller in the presence of saturating actuators and multi-rate (asynchronous) aperiodic state measurements is studied. Specifically, we consider a scenario in which measurements of the plant states are collected at the controller end in a sporadic and asynchronous fashion. A hybrid controller is used to perform a fusion of measurements sampled at different times. In between sampling events, the controller behaves as a copy of the plant and provides a feedback control signal based on the reconstruction of the plant state. The presence of saturation at the plant input limits the value of the components of this signal to a bounded range. When a new measurement is available, the controller state undergoes an instantaneous jump. The resulting system is augmented with a set of timers triggering the arrival of new measurements and analyzed in a hybrid systems framework. Relying on Lyapunov tools for hybrid systems and techniques for control design under saturation, we propose sufficient conditions in the form of matrix inequalities to ensure regional exponential stability of a closed-set containing the origin of the plant, i.e., exponential stability with a guaranteed region of attraction. Specifically, explicit estimates of the basin of attraction are provided in the form of ellipsoidal sets. Leveraging those conditions, a design procedure based on semidefinite programming is proposed to design a stabilizing controller with maximized size of the basin attraction. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is shown in an example.
研究了在存在饱和执行器和多速率(异步)非周期状态测量时的稳定反馈控制器设计问题。具体地说,我们考虑一个场景,在这个场景中,在控制器端以零星和异步的方式收集工厂状态的测量。采用混合控制器对不同时间采样的测量数据进行融合。在采样事件之间,控制器表现为对象的副本,并提供基于对象状态重建的反馈控制信号。在植物输入处饱和的存在将该信号的分量的值限制在一个有限的范围内。当新的测量值可用时,控制器状态经历瞬时跳转。最终的系统增加了一组计时器,触发新测量的到来,并在混合系统框架中进行分析。基于混合系统的Lyapunov工具和饱和条件下的控制设计技术,我们以矩阵不等式的形式提出了保证包含对象原点的闭集的区域指数稳定性的充分条件,即具有保证吸引区域的指数稳定性。具体地说,以椭球集的形式提供了吸引力盆地的显式估计。利用这些条件,提出了一种基于半确定规划的稳定控制器设计方法,以最大限度地提高流域吸引力。算例表明了所提方法的有效性。
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引用次数: 1
Stability analysis of optimal control problems with time-dependent costs 具有时变代价的最优控制问题的稳定性分析
Pub Date : 2022-10-13 DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2210.07142
Sifeddine Benahmed, R. Postoyan, Mathieu Granzotto, L. Buşoniu, J. Daafouz, D. Nešić
We present stability conditions for deterministic time-varying nonlinear discrete-time systems whose inputs aim to minimize an infinite-horizon time-dependent cost. Global asymptotic and exponential stability properties for general attractors are established. This work covers and generalizes the related results on discounted optimal control problems to more general systems and cost functions.
我们给出了确定性时变非线性离散系统的稳定性条件,该系统的输入以最小化无限视界时变代价为目标。建立了一般吸引子的全局渐近稳定性和指数稳定性。这项工作涵盖并推广了贴现最优控制问题的相关结果到更一般的系统和成本函数。
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引用次数: 0
Equilibrium pairs trading under delayed cointegration 延迟协整下的均衡对交易
Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.4117238
Tingjin Yan, H. Y. Wong
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引用次数: 2
An Efficient Implementation for Spatial-Temporal Gaussian Process Regression and Its Applications 时空高斯过程回归的有效实现及其应用
Pub Date : 2022-09-26 DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2209.12565
Junpeng Zhang, Yue Ju, Biqiang Mu, Renxin Zhong, Tianshi Chen
Spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression is a popular method for spatial-temporal data modeling. Its state-of-art implementation is based on the state-space model realization of the spatial-temporal Gaussian process and its corresponding Kalman filter and smoother, and has computational complexity $mathcal{O}(NM^3)$, where $N$ and $M$ are the number of time instants and spatial input locations, respectively, and thus can only be applied to data with large $N$ but relatively small $M$. In this paper, our primary goal is to show that by exploring the Kronecker structure of the state-space model realization of the spatial-temporal Gaussian process, it is possible to further reduce the computational complexity to $mathcal{O}(M^3+NM^2)$ and thus the proposed implementation can be applied to data with large $N$ and moderately large $M$. The proposed implementation is illustrated over applications in weather data prediction and spatially-distributed system identification. Our secondary goal is to design a kernel for both the Colorado precipitation data and the GHCN temperature data, such that while having more efficient implementation, better prediction performance can also be achieved than the state-of-art result.
时空高斯过程回归是一种流行的时空数据建模方法。其最先进的实现是基于时空高斯过程及其相应的卡尔曼滤波和平滑的状态-空间模型实现,其计算复杂度为$mathcal{O}(NM^3)$,其中$N$和$M$分别为时间瞬间数和空间输入位置数,因此只能应用于$N$大而$M$相对较小的数据。在本文中,我们的主要目标是表明,通过探索时空高斯过程的状态空间模型实现的Kronecker结构,有可能进一步将计算复杂度降低到$mathcal{O}(M^3+NM^2)$,从而提出的实现可以应用于具有大$N$和中等大$M$的数据。最后以天气数据预测和空间分布式系统识别为例说明了该方法的实现。我们的第二个目标是为科罗拉多降水数据和GHCN温度数据设计一个内核,这样在实现更有效的同时,也可以实现比最先进的结果更好的预测性能。
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引用次数: 1
Resilience of Linear Systems to Partial Loss of Control Authority 线性系统对部分失去控制权限的弹性
Pub Date : 2022-09-16 DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2209.08034
Jean-Baptiste Bouvier, Melkior Ornik
After a loss of control authority over thrusters of the Nauka module, the International Space Station lost attitude control for 45 minutes with potentially disastrous consequences. Motivated by this scenario, we investigate the continued capability of control systems to perform their task despite partial loss of authority over their actuators. We say that a system is resilient to such a malfunction if for any undesirable inputs and any target state there exists an admissible control driving the state to the target. Building on controllability conditions and differential games theory, we establish a necessary and sufficient condition for the resilience of linear systems. As their task might be time-constrained, ensuring completion alone is not sufficient. We also want to estimate how much slower the malfunctioning system is compared to its nominal performance. Relying on Lyapunov theory we derive analytical bounds on the reach times of the nominal and malfunctioning systems in order to quantify their resilience. We illustrate our work on the ADMIRE fighter jet model and on a temperature control system.
在失去对Nauka模块推进器的控制权后,国际空间站失去了45分钟的姿态控制,这可能带来灾难性的后果。在这种情况下,我们研究了控制系统在部分失去执行器权限的情况下执行任务的持续能力。如果对于任何不期望的输入和任何目标状态存在一个可接受的控制将状态驱动到目标,我们说系统对这种故障是有弹性的。利用可控性条件和微分对策理论,建立了线性系统具有弹性的充分必要条件。由于他们的任务可能有时间限制,仅确保完成是不够的。我们还想估计出故障系统与其名义性能相比慢了多少。依靠李亚普诺夫理论,我们导出了名义和故障系统的到达时间的分析界,以量化它们的弹性。我们用钦佩战斗机模型和温度控制系统来说明我们的工作。
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引用次数: 4
Fixed-Order H-Infinity Controller Design for Port-Hamiltonian Systems port - hamilton系统的定阶h∞控制器设计
Pub Date : 2022-09-15 DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2209.07558
P. Schwerdtner, M. Voigt
We present a new fixed-order H-infinity controller design method for potentially large-scale port-Hamiltonian (pH) plants. Our method computes controllers that are also pH (and thus passive) such that the resulting closed-loop systems is again passive, which ensures closed-loop stability simply from the structure of the plant and controller matrices. In this way, we can avoid computationally expensive eigenvalue computations that would otherwise be necessary. In combination with a sample-based objective function which allows us to avoid multiple evaluations of the H-infinity norm (which is typically the main computational burden in fixed-order H-infinity controller synthesis), this makes our method well-suited for plants with a high state-space dimension. In our numerical experiments, we show that applying a passivity-enforcing post-processing step after using well-established H-infinity synthesis methods often leads to a deteriorated H-infinity performance. In constrast to that, our method computes pH controllers, that are automatically passive and simultaneously aim to minimize the H-infinity norm of the closed-loop transfer function. Moreover, our experiments show that for large-scale plants, our method is significantly faster than the well-established fixed-order H-infinity controller synthesis methods.
我们提出了一种新的定阶h∞控制器设计方法,用于潜在的大规模port- hamilton (pH)装置。我们的方法计算的控制器也是pH值(因此是被动的),这样得到的闭环系统再次是被动的,这确保了闭环的稳定性,仅仅从植物和控制器矩阵的结构。通过这种方式,我们可以避免计算上昂贵的特征值计算,否则将是必要的。结合基于样本的目标函数,使我们能够避免对h -∞范数的多次评估(这通常是定阶h -∞控制器合成中的主要计算负担),这使得我们的方法非常适合具有高状态空间维度的植物。在我们的数值实验中,我们表明,在使用成熟的h -∞合成方法后,应用强制无源后处理步骤通常会导致h -∞性能恶化。与此相反,我们的方法计算pH控制器,它是自动被动的,同时旨在最小化闭环传递函数的h∞范数。此外,我们的实验表明,对于大型对象,我们的方法明显快于成熟的定阶h∞控制器合成方法。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
IEEE Robotics Autom. Mag.
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