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The Yield Curve as a Recession Leading Indicator. An Application for Gradient Boosting and Random Forest 收益率曲线作为经济衰退的先行指标。梯度增强与随机森林的应用
Pub Date : 2022-03-13 DOI: 10.9781/ijimai.2022.02.006
Pedro Cadahia Delgado, E. Congregado, A. Golpe, José Carlos Vides
INCE the decade of the '80s, economic crises have been more recurrent and deeper. In this respect, researchers and practitioners have tried to understand, model, and even predict a recession differently. One popular forecasting tool suggested in the literature and followed by economists is the analysis of the slope of the yield curve or the term spread, i.e., the difference between longterm and short-term interest rates [1].
自上世纪80年代以来,经济危机更频繁、更深刻。在这方面,研究人员和实践者试图以不同的方式理解、建模甚至预测衰退。文献中提出并被经济学家采用的一种流行的预测工具是分析收益率曲线的斜率或期限价差,即长期和短期利率之差。
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引用次数: 2
Variational Learning for the Inverted Beta-Liouville Mixture Model and Its Application to Text Categorization 倒β - liouville混合模型的变分学习及其在文本分类中的应用
Pub Date : 2021-12-29 DOI: 10.9781/ijimai.2022.08.006
Yongfa Ling, Wenbo Guan, Qiang Ruan, Heping Song, Yuping Lai
The finite invert Beta-Liouville mixture model (IBLMM) has recently gained some attention due to its positive data modeling capability. Under the conventional variational inference (VI) framework, the analytically tractable solution to the optimization of the variational posterior distribution cannot be obtained, since the variational object function involves evaluation of intractable moments. With the recently proposed extended variational inference (EVI) framework, a new function is proposed to replace the original variational object function in order to avoid intractable moment computation, so that the analytically tractable solution of the IBLMM can be derived in an elegant way. The good performance of the proposed approach is demonstrated by experiments with both synthesized data and a real-world application namely text categorization.
有限反演Beta-Liouville混合模型(IBLMM)由于其积极的数据建模能力,近年来得到了一些关注。在传统的变分推理(VI)框架下,由于变分目标函数涉及到难以处理的矩的评估,因此无法得到变分后验分布优化的解析解。在最近提出的扩展变分推理(EVI)框架中,为了避免难以处理的矩计算,提出了一个新的变分目标函数来代替原来的变分目标函数,从而可以以一种优雅的方式导出IBLMM的解析可处理解。通过对合成数据和实际应用文本分类的实验证明了该方法的良好性能。
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引用次数: 1
Why the Future Might Actually Need Us: A Theological Critique of the 'Humanity-As-Midwife-For-Artificial-Superintelligence' Proposal 为什么未来可能真的需要我们:对“人类作为人工超级智能的助产士”提议的神学批评
Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.9781/ijimai.2021.07.005
M. Dorobantu
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引用次数: 1
Artificial Canaries: Early Warning Signs for Anticipatory and Democratic Governance of AI 人工金丝雀:人工智能预期和民主治理的早期预警信号
Pub Date : 2021-03-12 DOI: 10.17863/CAM.65790
Carla Zoe Cremer, Jess Whittlestone
We propose a method for identifying early warning signs of transformative progress in artificial intelligence (AI), and discuss how these can support the anticipatory and democratic governance of AI. We call these early warning signs ‘canaries’, based on the use of canaries to provide early warnings of unsafe air pollution in coal mines. Our method combines expert elicitation and collaborative causal graphs to identify key milestones and identify the relationships between them. We present two illustrations of how this method could be used: to identify early warnings of harmful impacts of language models; and of progress towards high-level machine intelligence. Identifying early warning signs of transformative applications can support more efficient monitoring and timely regulation of progress in AI: as AI advances, its impacts on society may be too great to be governed retrospectively. It is essential that those impacted by AI have a say in how it is governed. Early warnings can give the public time and focus to influence emerging technologies using democratic, participatory technology assessments. We discuss the challenges in identifying early warning signals and propose directions for future work.
我们提出了一种方法来识别人工智能(AI)变革进展的早期预警信号,并讨论了这些信号如何支持人工智能的预期和民主治理。我们把这些早期预警信号称为“金丝雀”,这是基于使用金丝雀为煤矿不安全的空气污染提供早期预警。我们的方法结合了专家启发和协作因果图来确定关键的里程碑,并确定它们之间的关系。我们提出了如何使用这种方法的两个例子:识别语言模型有害影响的早期预警;以及高级机器智能的发展。识别变革性应用的早期预警信号可以支持更有效地监测和及时监管人工智能的进展:随着人工智能的进步,它对社会的影响可能太大,无法进行回顾性管理。受人工智能影响的人在如何管理人工智能方面有发言权,这一点至关重要。早期预警可以使公众有时间和重点利用民主的、参与性的技术评估来影响新兴技术。我们讨论了识别早期预警信号的挑战,并提出了未来工作的方向。
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引用次数: 7
Music Boundary Detection using Convolutional Neural Networks: A comparative analysis of combined input features 使用卷积神经网络的音乐边界检测:组合输入特征的比较分析
Pub Date : 2020-08-17 DOI: 10.9781/ijimai.2021.10.005
Carlos Hernandez-Olivan, J. R. Beltrán, David Diaz-Guerra
The analysis of the structure of musical pieces is a task that remains a challenge for Artificial Intelligence, especially in the field of Deep Learning. It requires prior identification of structural boundaries of the music pieces. This structural boundary analysis has recently been studied with unsupervised methods and textit{end-to-end} techniques such as Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) using Mel-Scaled Log-magnitude Spectograms features (MLS), Self-Similarity Matrices (SSM) or Self-Similarity Lag Matrices (SSLM) as inputs and trained with human annotations. Several studies have been published divided into unsupervised and textit{end-to-end} methods in which pre-processing is done in different ways, using different distance metrics and audio characteristics, so a generalized pre-processing method to compute model inputs is missing. The objective of this work is to establish a general method of pre-processing these inputs by comparing the inputs calculated from different pooling strategies, distance metrics and audio characteristics, also taking into account the computing time to obtain them. We also establish the most effective combination of inputs to be delivered to the CNN in order to establish the most efficient way to extract the limits of the structure of the music pieces. With an adequate combination of input matrices and pooling strategies we obtain a measurement accuracy $F_1$ of 0.411 that outperforms the current one obtained under the same conditions.
对音乐作品结构的分析仍然是人工智能的一个挑战,特别是在深度学习领域。它需要事先识别乐曲的结构边界。这种结构边界分析最近用无监督方法和textit{端到端}技术进行了研究,如卷积神经网络(CNN),使用mel - scale Log-magnitude spectrum feature (MLS)、自相似矩阵(SSM)或自相似滞后矩阵(SSLM)作为输入,并使用人工注释进行训练。已经发表的一些研究分为无监督和textit{端到端}方法,其中预处理以不同的方式完成,使用不同的距离度量和音频特征,因此缺乏一种通用的预处理方法来计算模型输入。这项工作的目的是通过比较不同池化策略、距离度量和音频特征计算的输入,并考虑获得它们的计算时间,建立一种预处理这些输入的通用方法。我们还建立了传递给CNN的最有效的输入组合,以便建立最有效的方法来提取音乐片段的结构极限。通过输入矩阵和池化策略的适当组合,我们获得了0.411的测量精度$F_1$,优于在相同条件下获得的当前测量精度。
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引用次数: 9
Machine Learning Based Method for Estimating Energy Losses in Large-Scale Unbalanced Distribution Systems with Photovoltaics 基于机器学习的大规模光伏不平衡配电系统能量损失估计方法
Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.9781/ijimai.2020.08.002
K. Mahmoud, M. Abdel-Nasser, H. Kashef, D. Puig, M. Lehtonen
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引用次数: 8
Guidelines for performing Systematic Research Projects Reviews 进行系统研究计划检讨的指引
Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.9781/ijimai.2020.05.005
A. García-Holgado, Samuel Marcos, F. García-Peñalvo
T number of scientific articles published, regardless of the academic discipline, has dramatically increased in the last decades. The publication in impact journals is considered one of the KPI (key performance indicators) in research centres and one of the measures to get funds. Moreover, in the current information society, most of the published works are available in online journals, repositories, databases, so researchers have access to them. One of the first tasks before conducting a research, regardless of the field of study, is to identify related works and previous studies as a way to support the need to conduct new research on a particular topic. Likewise, the review of available research provides answers to particular research questions and a knowledge base to learn from previous experiences and identify new research opportunities. Nevertheless, although the need to synthesise research evidence has been recognised for well over two centuries, it was not until the end of the last century that researchers began to develop explicit methods for this form of research. In particular, a literature review allows for achieving this objective. According to Grant and Booth [1], it involves some process for identifying materials for potential inclusion, for selecting included materials, for synthesizing them in textual, tabular or graphical form and for making some analysis of their contributions or value. There are different review types and associated methodologies. Specifically, before 1990, narrative reviews were typically used, but they have some limitations such as the subjectivity, coupled with the lack of transparency, and the early expiration because the synthetization process becomes complicated and eventually untenable as the number of studies increases [2]. The systematic review or systematic literature review method seeks to mitigate the limitations of narrative reviews. Systematic reviews have their origin in the field of Medicine and Health. Nevertheless, the logic of systematic methods for reviewing the literature can be applied to other areas of research such as Humanities, Social Sciences or Software Engineering; therefore there can be as much variation in systematic reviews as is found in primary research [3], [4]. A systematic review is a protocol-driven comprehensive review and synthesis of data focusing on a topic or related key questions. It is typically performed by experienced methodologists with the input of domain experts [5]. The systematic review methods are a way of bringing together what is known from the research literature using explicit and accountable methods [4]. According to Kitchenham [6][8], a systematic review is a means of evaluating and interpreting all available research relevant to a particular research question, topic area, or phenomenon of interest by using a trustworthy, rigorous, and auditable methodology. The analysis of related works and previous studies is not only associated with scientific literat
在过去的几十年里,发表的科学论文的数量,无论在哪个学科,都急剧增加。在有影响力的期刊上发表论文被认为是研究中心的KPI(关键绩效指标)之一,也是获得资金的措施之一。此外,在当前的信息社会中,大多数已发表的作品都可以在在线期刊、知识库、数据库中获得,因此研究人员可以访问它们。在进行研究之前的首要任务之一,无论研究领域如何,都是确定相关的工作和以前的研究,以支持对特定主题进行新研究的需要。同样,对现有研究的回顾为特定研究问题提供了答案,并为从以前的经验中学习和确定新的研究机会提供了知识库。然而,尽管综合研究证据的必要性在两个多世纪前就已经被认识到,但直到上世纪末,研究人员才开始为这种形式的研究开发明确的方法。特别是,文献回顾允许实现这一目标。根据Grant和Booth[1]的观点,它涉及到一些过程,包括识别可能被纳入的材料,选择被纳入的材料,以文本、表格或图形的形式综合它们,并对它们的贡献或价值进行一些分析。有不同的评审类型和相关的方法。具体而言,在1990年以前,叙事性评论是较为典型的,但其存在主观性、缺乏透明度以及随着研究数量的增加,合成过程变得复杂而最终站不住脚而过早失效等局限性[2]。系统综述或系统文献综述方法旨在减轻叙述性综述的局限性。系统评价起源于医学和卫生领域。然而,回顾文献的系统方法的逻辑可以应用于其他研究领域,如人文科学、社会科学或软件工程;因此,在系统综述中可能存在与在初级研究中发现的一样多的差异[3],[4]。系统综述是一种协议驱动的综合综述和数据综合,关注一个主题或相关的关键问题。它通常由经验丰富的方法学家在领域专家的输入下执行[5]。系统综述方法是一种使用明确和负责任的方法将研究文献中已知的内容汇集在一起的方法[4]。根据Kitchenham[6][8]的说法,系统综述是一种评估和解释与特定研究问题、主题领域或感兴趣的现象相关的所有可用研究的手段,采用可信赖、严格和可审计的方法。对相关著作和前人研究的分析不仅仅与科学文献有关。研究中心的另一个关键绩效指标是在竞争性招标中获得资助的项目数量。项目建议同其他正式研究一样,必须证明进行这些研究的必要性。此外,大多数对资助项目的呼吁都要求证明提案与其他已开发项目相比具有创新性。虽然可以期望所有资助项目的结果都可以在科学出版物中获得,但这并不总是常态。要确定研究项目的进展,就需要《进行系统研究项目评审指引》
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引用次数: 56
Time-Dependent Performance Prediction System for Early Insight in Learning Trends 学习趋势早期洞察的时间依赖性能预测系统
Pub Date : 2020-05-27 DOI: 10.9781/ijimai.2020.05.006
Carlos Villagrá-Arnedo, F. J. Gallego-Durán, F. Llorens-Largo, Rosana Satorre-Cuerda, Patricia Compañ-Rosique, R. Molina-Carmona
K students' learning trends is relevant to diagnose learning performance and early detect situations where teachers' intervention would be most effective. Prediction systems represent one of the bests tools for this purpose. Predicting performance is the basis for student diagnostics, learning trends projection and early detection. Most performance prediction systems output numerical grades or performance class memberships. Research tends to focus on prediction accuracy. Accuracy is relevant, because it helps improving diagnostics, but it should not be confused with the main goal: improving learning. To help teachers improve student performance many other aspects can be considered: more accessible prediction data, better graphical representations, methods for detecting learning trends and most suitable moments for intervention, etc. Most of these improvements rely on the ability to consider learning data evolution over time. This is particularly relevant due to cumulative nature of learning and so it is one of the main characteristics considered in this work. This work is an empirical research in the search for practical systems to help teachers in their guidance duties. It relays on teachers receiving in-depth information on student learning trends during semester. This information is elaborated from an automatic system which yields predictions on expected student performance. Main contribution of this work is a custom-designed practical prediction system. Main innovations of the proposed system are its time-dependent nature and the use of probabilistic predictions. The proposed system delivers by-weekly probabilistic performance predictions and analytical timedependent graphs that help gaining insight in students’ learning trends. The proposed system is tested during a complete semester in the subject Mathematics I at the University of Alicante. Data gathered is used as initial evidence to empirically test the system and results are shown and discussed. Usefulness, convenience and advantages of the time-dependent nature of learning data are also tested and discussed. As an additional consequence derived from these tests, some initial methods for selecting the best moments for teacher intervention are proposed and discussed. Performance predictions are shown as point graphs over time, along with calculated trends. This information is summarized and organized to help teachers explore and analyse student learning performance efficiently. Some case examples are presented and analysed using these graphs, showing their potential to help teachers understand beyond raw data. Teachers can use this information to diagnose students, understand learning trends, early detect intervention situations and act accordingly to help students improve their learning results. This research considers only learning trend diagnosis and detection of most suitable moments for teacher intervention. Intervention strategies and their results are out of scope. This paper is s
K学生的学习倾向与诊断学习表现和早期发现教师干预最有效的情况有关。预测系统是实现这一目的的最佳工具之一。预测表现是学生诊断、学习趋势预测和早期发现的基础。大多数性能预测系统输出数值等级或性能类成员。研究的重点往往是预测的准确性。准确性是相关的,因为它有助于提高诊断,但它不应与主要目标:提高学习能力混淆。为了帮助教师提高学生的表现,可以考虑许多其他方面:更容易获得的预测数据,更好的图形表示,检测学习趋势的方法和最合适的干预时机等。这些改进大多依赖于考虑学习数据随时间演变的能力。由于学习的累积性,这一点尤为重要,因此它是本工作中考虑的主要特征之一。本研究是一项实证研究,旨在寻找实用的系统来帮助教师履行其指导职责。它依赖于教师在学期中获得学生学习趋势的深入信息。这些信息来自一个自动系统,该系统可以预测学生的预期表现。本工作的主要贡献是一个定制的实用预测系统。提出的系统的主要创新是其时间依赖性和概率预测的使用。该系统每周提供概率性能预测和分析时间相关图表,帮助了解学生的学习趋势。该系统在阿利坎特大学的数学I课程中进行了一个完整学期的测试。收集的数据被用作对系统进行实证测试的初步证据,结果被展示和讨论。测试和讨论了学习数据的有用性、便利性和时间依赖性的优点。作为这些测试的一个额外结果,我们提出并讨论了一些选择教师干预最佳时机的初步方法。性能预测显示为随时间变化的点图,以及计算出的趋势。这些信息被总结和组织起来,以帮助教师有效地探索和分析学生的学习表现。使用这些图表展示和分析了一些案例,展示了它们帮助教师理解原始数据之外的潜力。教师可以利用这些信息对学生进行诊断,了解学习趋势,及早发现干预情况,并采取相应行动,帮助学生提高学习成绩。本研究只考虑学习趋势诊断和最适合教师干预的时刻检测。干预策略及其结果超出了范围。本文共分为七个部分。第二部分分析了相关背景工作。首先,介绍了几种最合适的预测技术。然后,解释了一些有关早期检测和提供有见地的图形表示的相关工作。最后,进行了讨论,得出了本文的结论。因此,在第三节中提出了研究问题。第四节介绍了一个定制的自动学习系统,其中包括所提出的预测系统。第五节解释了如何使用系统中的数据来执行学生诊断并选择最佳干预时刻。第六节分析了一种基于时间的学习趋势早期洞察性能预测系统
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引用次数: 3
Learning Models for Semantic Classification of Insufficient Plantar Pressure Images 足底压力不足图像语义分类的学习模型
Pub Date : 2020-03-03 DOI: 10.9781/IJIMAI.2020.02.005
Yao Wu, Qun Wu, N. Dey, R. Sherratt
Establishing a reliable and stable model to predict a target by using insufficient labeled samples is feasible and effective, particularly, for a sensor-generated data-set. This paper has been inspired with insufficient data-set learning algorithms, such as metric-based, prototype networks and meta-learning, and therefore we propose an insufficient data-set transfer model learning method. Firstly, two basic models for transfer learning are introduced. A classification system and calculation criteria are then subsequently introduced. Secondly, a dataset of plantar pressure for comfort shoe design is acquired and preprocessed through foot scan system; and by using a pre-trained convolution neural network employing AlexNet and convolution neural network (CNN)- based transfer modeling, the classification accuracy of the plantar pressure images is over 93.5%. Finally, the proposed method has been compared to the current classifiers VGG, ResNet, AlexNet and pre-trained CNN. Also, our work is compared with known-scaling and shifting (SS) and unknown-plain slot (PS) partition methods on the public test databases: SUN, CUB, AWA1, AWA2, and aPY with indices of precision (tr, ts, H) and time (training and evaluation). The proposed method for the plantar pressure classification task shows high performance in most indices when comparing with other methods. The transfer learning-based method can be applied to other insufficient data-sets of sensor imaging fields.
建立一个可靠和稳定的模型,通过使用不足的标记样本来预测目标是可行和有效的,特别是对于传感器生成的数据集。本文的灵感来自于不足的数据集学习算法,如基于度量的、原型网络的和元学习的,因此我们提出了一种不足的数据集迁移模型学习方法。首先,介绍了迁移学习的两个基本模型。然后介绍了分类系统和计算标准。其次,通过足部扫描系统获取舒适鞋设计所需的足底压力数据集并进行预处理;采用AlexNet预训练卷积神经网络和基于卷积神经网络(CNN)的传递建模,对足底压力图像的分类准确率达到93.5%以上。最后,将提出的方法与现有的分类器VGG、ResNet、AlexNet和预训练的CNN进行了比较。并在SUN、CUB、AWA1、AWA2和aPY等公开测试数据库上,以精度(tr、ts、H)和时间(训练和评估)为指标,与已知尺度和移动(SS)和未知平面槽(PS)划分方法进行了比较。与其他方法相比,该方法在大多数指标上都表现出较高的性能。基于迁移学习的方法可以应用于传感器成像领域的其他数据集不足的问题。
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引用次数: 13
Comparative Study on Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) and K-Means Clustering Approaches for Jobs Scheduling and Energy Optimization Model in Internet of Things (IoT) 物联网作业调度与能量优化模型的蚁群优化与k均值聚类比较研究
Pub Date : 2020-03-01 DOI: 10.9781/ijimai.2020.01.003
Sumit Kumar, Vijender Kumar Solanki, S. Choudhary, A. Selamat, R. G. Crespo
T latest IoT applications depend on promotion of wireless sensor networks (WSNs) with expert of engineering. These IoT applications contain a large number of devices, connected with different requirements and technologies. Such kinds of IoT applications do the sensing and collection of data with transmission of data to the administrator nodes for other possible operations and even a cloud at the backdrop for data analytics. These processes require routing protocols for their completion. Routing protocols have two major challenges. The first challenge is to improve data transmission and scalability whereas the second challenge is to minimize energy consumption. In an IoT application, network nodes under different network topology collect different kind of data so that an IoT application produces an enormous amount of data. The heterogeneity in network topology restricts the TCP/IP to become the best policy for proper resource allocation to computing and routing [1]-[3], [27]-[29]. Owing to the above-mentioned challenges, different persons view IoT in different ways, based on their perception and requirements. A routing protocol includes the multiple job scheduling methodologies. These job scheduling methodologies are reported as either heuristic or metaheuristic-based approaches. Heuristic-based methodologies are comparatively more helpful when we look for a local optimum whereas metaheuristic methodologies further try to explore the solution DOI: 10.9781/ijimai.2020.01.003
最新的物联网应用依赖于无线传感器网络(WSNs)和工程专家的推广。这些物联网应用包含大量设备,连接着不同的需求和技术。这种类型的物联网应用程序通过将数据传输到管理节点以进行其他可能的操作,甚至在数据分析的背景下进行云计算来感知和收集数据。这些过程需要路由协议才能完成。路由协议有两个主要的挑战。第一个挑战是改进数据传输和可扩展性,而第二个挑战是最小化能耗。在物联网应用中,不同网络拓扑下的网络节点收集不同类型的数据,使得物联网应用产生大量的数据。网络拓扑的异构性限制了TCP/IP协议成为计算和路由资源合理分配的最佳策略[1]-[3],[27]-[29]。由于上述挑战,不同的人基于自己的感知和需求,对物联网有不同的看法。路由协议包括多个作业调度方法。这些作业调度方法被报道为启发式或基于元启发式的方法。当我们寻找局部最优时,基于启发式的方法相对更有帮助,而元启发式方法则进一步尝试探索解决方案DOI: 10.9781/ijimai.2020.01.003
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引用次数: 63
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Int. J. Interact. Multim. Artif. Intell.
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