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Total Systems Cost: A Better Metric for Valuing Electricity in Supply Network Planning and Decision-Making 总系统成本:在供电网络规划和决策中评估电力的一个更好的度量
Pub Date : 2021-04-20 DOI: 10.3808/JEIL.202100056
Stephanie Byrom, A. Boston, G. Bongers, P. Dargusch, A. Garnett, N. Bongers
Comparing the cost and value of electricity generation technologies is becoming more complex as electricity grids become more diverse. The changing generation mix, along with the need to maintain a competent grid, is resulting in previously acceptable cost comparison metrics being used outside of their limited range of applicability. In particular Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE), if used to evaluate options for a future, low carbon grid, could result in erroneous and misleading conclusions. Electricity generation facilities do not only provide energy, they also provide an array of additional services which are fundamental to maintaining a permanent and reliable electricity supply across the system, including reserve capacity, and voltage and frequency control. Indeed, some technology options pro- vide these services without generating any energy. These services, corresponding costs and operational implications need to be included in the evaluation of technologies in order to ensure the grids emerge transformed, resilient and genuinely sustainable. Total system cost and its derivative metrics are the most appropriate economic metrics for analysis and decision making in a future for low carbon grid.
随着电网变得更加多样化,比较发电技术的成本和价值变得越来越复杂。不断变化的发电组合,以及维持合格电网的需要,导致以前可接受的成本比较指标在其有限的适用性范围之外被使用。特别是,如果使用平准化能源成本(LCOE)来评估未来低碳电网的选择,可能会导致错误和误导性的结论。发电设施不仅提供能源,而且还提供一系列额外的服务,这些服务是维持整个系统永久可靠电力供应的基础,包括储备容量、电压和频率控制。事实上,一些技术方案在不产生任何能源的情况下提供这些服务。这些服务、相应的成本和运营影响需要纳入技术评估,以确保电网转型、有弹性和真正可持续。系统总成本及其衍生指标是未来低碳电网分析和决策最合适的经济指标。
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引用次数: 5
A Review of Numerical Models for Oil Penetration, Retention, and Attenuation on Shorelines 海岸线上石油渗透、滞留和衰减的数值模型综述
Pub Date : 2021-04-05 DOI: 10.3808/JEIL.202100051
E. Taylor, E. Owens, Kenneth Lee, C. An, Z. Chen, Winslow Way East Bainbridge Island Wa Usa Occ Ltd., Ottawa On K A E Canada Oceans Canada
Oil spills that reach shorelines greatly increase risks to coastal resources. Understanding how long oil is likely to remain on a shoreline is important in deciding response priorities, areas to clean, and the degree of intervention recommended. Wave action, tides, and currents can relocate oil laterally along the beach, cause oil to penetrate vertically into the sediments, and remove oil from the shoreline. Physico-chemical processes transfer some hydrocarbons to the atmosphere and to the adjacent water column resulting in diminished oil on the shoreline. Oil dispersion, through formation of oil-particulate aggregates, and microbial degradation processes can break down a large fraction of the residual oil remaining on and within shorelines. A comprehensive review of the scientific literature reveals that although there are many models that describe and predict oil transport, behavior, and fate in the sea, few numerical models have been developed for oil stranded on shorelines. Canada’s Multi-Partner Research Initiative Program aims to develop a model-based “Decision Support Tool” that can predict the rates of oil loss that can be achieved from natural attenuation processes and the application of active spill response strategies. This model is built on the understanding of factors controlling: penetration, holding capacity, retention, and the residual capacity (persistence) of oil stranded on shorelines derived from the results of case histories, laboratory, meso-scale tests and field trials. Output from the model is intended to support spill response decision-making by allowing spill responders and the public to visualize the results achieved by natural attenuation versus remedial strategies.
到达海岸线的石油泄漏大大增加了对沿海资源的风险。了解石油可能在海岸线上停留多久,对于决定应对优先级、清理区域和建议干预的程度非常重要。波浪作用、潮汐和海流可以沿海滩横向移动石油,导致石油垂直渗透到沉积物中,并将石油从海岸线上带走。物理化学过程将一些碳氢化合物转移到大气和邻近的水柱中,导致海岸线上的石油减少。石油通过形成油颗粒聚集体而分散,微生物降解过程可以分解残留在海岸线上和海岸线内的大部分剩余油。对科学文献的全面回顾表明,尽管有许多模型可以描述和预测石油在海洋中的运输、行为和命运,但很少有针对搁浅在海岸线上的石油开发的数值模型。加拿大的多合作伙伴研究计划旨在开发一种基于模型的“决策支持工具”,该工具可以通过自然衰减过程和主动泄漏响应策略的应用来预测石油损失率。该模型建立在对控制因素的理解之上,这些因素包括:渗透能力、持有能力、滞留能力和搁浅在海岸线上的石油的剩余能力(持久性),这些因素来自于案例历史、实验室、中尺度测试和现场试验的结果。该模型的输出旨在通过允许泄漏响应人员和公众可视化自然衰减与补救策略所取得的结果来支持泄漏响应决策。
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引用次数: 8
A Practical Model of the Natural Attenuation of Oil on Shorelines for Decision Support 用于决策支持的海岸线石油自然衰减实用模型
Pub Date : 2021-04-05 DOI: 10.3808/JEIL.202100053
E. Owens, E. Taylor, G. Sergy, Kenneth Lee, C. An, Z. Chen, Edmonton Ab T J G Canada S Environmental, Ottawa On K A E Canada Oceans Canada
Oil stranded on shorelines naturally weathers and attenuates at rates that are a function of the character of the oil on the shoreline (type and volume), the character of the shoreline materials, and the environmental setting (physical and biological). Some light crude oils and refined products have a very short half-life and may persist for only hours or days. However, if stranded oil is not exposed to light, oxygen or physical shore-zone processes, such as in asphalt pavements or if buried by marine or river sediments, it may take long time periods to fully degrade, or in a few extreme cases may not degrade at all. This review assesses the current state-of-knowledge of the natural weathering and attenuation of oil on shorelines as this relates to decisions regarding a shoreline treatment program. This knowledge is critical for the creation of simulation models for natural attenuation. The Shoreline Response Program-Decision Support Tool, currently under development, considers the various translocation (transport) pathways of oil on shorelines into the atmosphere or the marine environment and the attenuation processes that lead to the final transformation of stranded petroleum hydrocarbons into non-hydrocarbon materials. This ultimate transformation to a non-hydrocarbon is only achieved during chemical attenuation processes associated with biodegradation or photodegradation acting on exposed oil surfaces. Understanding the processes that act on the stranded oil and the rates by which oil is transformed into non-hydrocarbon materials is crucial in the decision process on whether to let Nature take its course or to intervene to remove the oil and/or accelerate the weathering and attenuation processes. This review evaluates the current state-of-understanding regarding the initial behavior and ultimate fate of oil on shorelines, identifies knowledge gaps regarding the behavior and ultimate fate of oil on shorelines, and recommends topics for further investigation and future research.
搁浅在海岸线上的石油自然风化和衰减的速率取决于海岸线上石油的特性(类型和体积)、海岸线材料的特性以及环境设置(物理和生物)。一些轻质原油和精炼产品的半衰期很短,可能只持续几小时或几天。然而,如果搁浅油没有暴露在光线、氧气或岸区物理过程中,如沥青路面或被海洋或河流沉积物掩埋,则可能需要很长时间才能完全降解,或者在一些极端情况下可能根本无法降解。这篇综述评估了目前关于海岸线上石油的自然风化和衰减的知识状况,因为这与海岸线处理方案的决策有关。这些知识对于创建自然衰减的模拟模型至关重要。目前正在开发的海岸线响应计划决策支持工具考虑了海岸线上石油进入大气或海洋环境的各种转运(运输)途径,以及导致搁浅石油碳氢化合物最终转化为非碳氢化合物物质的衰减过程。这种最终转化为非碳氢化合物的过程只有在与暴露的石油表面的生物降解或光降解相关的化学衰减过程中才能实现。了解作用于搁浅油的过程,以及石油转化为非碳氢物质的速度,对于决定是任由自然规律发展,还是进行干预以去除石油和/或加速风化和衰减过程至关重要。这篇综述评估了目前对海岸线上石油的初始行为和最终命运的理解状况,确定了海岸线上石油的行为和最终命运的知识差距,并建议了进一步调查和未来研究的主题。
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引用次数: 3
An Analysis of Selected Oil Spill Case Studies on the Shorelines of Canada 加拿大海岸线溢油个案分析
Pub Date : 2021-04-05 DOI: 10.3808/JEIL.202100052
Q. Feng, C. An, Y. Cao, Z. Chen, E. Owens, E. Taylor, Z. Wang, E. Saad
After an oil spill, oil may wash ashore and there is only a short window of opportunity to respond. Analysis of historical incident data is valuable to guide future responses and cleanup practices. This study summarized the oil spill accidents that impacted the Canadian shoreline and analyzed the related information including location, incident characteristics, and shoreline treatment. Major spills due to tanker accidents in Canadian marine waters fortunately have been infrequent. Most of the accidents have happened on Canada’s Pacific coast, accounting for 52% of the total accidents recorded. The Atlantic coast accounted for 39% and the remaining accidents happened in the Arctic region. Regarding spilled volume, 55% of the accidents spilled oil volumes smaller than 100 m3. Spilled volumes between 100 ~ 1000 m3 represent 30% of the incidents and 15% had spilled volume greater than 1000 m3. Bunker C fuel and diesel were the main types of the spilled oil, accounting for 33% of the spills, respectively. Within the oil spill accidents impacting Canadian shore- lines, marine vessel accidents were the major sources accounting for 70% of the spill accidents. In terms of the shoreline treatment, the commonly employed treatments were manual, vacuum, mechanical, and sorbent removal. The dataset highlighted the significance of a more comprehensive record for response phase details and environmental effects monitoring.
石油泄漏后,石油可能被冲上岸,而应对的机会只有很短的一段时间。历史事件数据的分析对于指导未来的响应和清理实践是有价值的。本研究总结了影响加拿大海岸线的溢油事故,并分析了相关信息,包括地点、事件特征和海岸线处理。幸运的是,由于油轮事故在加拿大海域造成的重大泄漏很少发生。大多数事故发生在加拿大的太平洋沿岸,占事故总数的52%。大西洋沿岸占39%,其余事故发生在北极地区。溢油量方面,55%的事故溢油量小于100立方米。泄漏量在100 ~ 1000立方米之间的事故占30%,泄漏量大于1000立方米的占15%。燃油和柴油是泄漏油的主要类型,分别占泄漏量的33%。在影响加拿大海岸线的溢油事故中,船舶事故是主要事故来源,占溢油事故的70%。在岸线处理方面,常用的处理方法有人工、真空、机械和吸附剂去除。该数据集强调了对响应阶段细节和环境影响监测进行更全面记录的重要性。
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引用次数: 4
A Review of Response Options to Accelerate the Recovery of Oiled Shorelines 加速受石油污染海岸线恢复的应对方案综述
Pub Date : 2021-04-05 DOI: 10.3808/JEIL.202100049
E. Owens, E. Taylor, G. Sergy, C. An, Z. Chen, Kenneth Lee, Edmonton Ab T J G Canada S Environmental, Ottawa On K A E Canada Oceans Canada
The rate at which oil on shorelines weathers and attenuates is a function of the character of the oil on the shoreline (type and volume), the character of the shoreline materials, and the environmental setting (physical and biological). Some light crude oils or products have a very short half-life and may persist for only hours or days whereas other oils may persist for months to years. The objective of this review is to summarize how and why the different commonly used and available response options can contribute to accelerating shoreline recovery and to explain the potential consequences of these actions. Globally, the most widely used shoreline treatment activity is simple physical removal by manual or mechanical cleanup methods with off-site disposal. The explanation for this situation lies in the fact that this method is typically quick, easy, and requires no special skill sets or dedicated equipment. The second most widely used treatment method is low-pressure flushing or washing. A concern with this option is that typically little or no oil is recovered, unless the oil loading on the shore is very high and, although some of the oil may be broken down and dispersed in the water column and then biodegraded, if the method generates oil residue-sediment aggregates these may be negatively buoyant when the sediments are granular (> 1 mm) or coarser. Many guides and manuals describe the mechanics and implementation of these and other treatment methods; this review evaluates the state-of-the art with respect to currently available and widely applicable treatment options to accelerate oiled shore- line recovery. This knowledge is intended to support the creation of a science-based Shoreline Response Program (SRP) Decision Support Tool that is under development as part the Fisheries and Oceans Canada Multi-Partner Research Initiative (MPRI) program. The primary benefit of this tool is to enhance the quality of strategic planning regarding shoreline response intervention and non-intervention decisions related, in part, to Alternative Response Technologies for shoreline treatment.
海岸线上石油的风化和衰减速率是海岸线上石油的特性(类型和体积)、海岸线材料的特性和环境设置(物理和生物)的函数。一些轻质原油或产品的半衰期很短,可能只持续几小时或几天,而其他油可能持续数月至数年。本综述的目的是总结不同的常用和可用的应对方案如何以及为什么有助于加速海岸线恢复,并解释这些行动的潜在后果。在全球范围内,最广泛使用的岸线处理活动是通过人工或机械清理方法进行简单的物理清除,并进行场外处置。对这种情况的解释是,这种方法通常是快速,简单的,不需要特殊的技能或专用设备。第二种最常用的处理方法是低压冲洗或冲洗。这种选择的一个问题是,除非岸上的石油负荷非常高,否则通常很少或根本不回收石油,尽管一些石油可能会被分解并分散在水柱中,然后被生物降解,但如果该方法产生石油残渣沉积物聚集体,当沉积物颗粒状(> 1毫米)或更粗时,这些沉积物可能具有负浮力。许多指南和手册描述了这些和其他治疗方法的机制和实施;这篇综述评估了目前可用的和广泛适用的处理方案,以加速受油海岸的恢复。这些知识旨在支持基于科学的海岸线响应计划(SRP)决策支持工具的创建,该工具作为加拿大渔业和海洋多方合作研究倡议(MPRI)计划的一部分正在开发中。该工具的主要好处是提高了海岸线响应干预和非干预决策的战略规划质量,这些决策部分与海岸线处理的替代响应技术有关。
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引用次数: 2
Collided with COVID-19 pandemic, the 2020 Yangtze flood is exceptionally severe. 与新冠肺炎疫情相结合,2020年长江洪灾异常严重。
Pub Date : 2020-09-23 DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10504388.1
Feng Wang, G. Huang, Yurui Fan
During June to July, 2020, persistent heavy precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) is resulting in extensive flooding, with over 158 fatalities and tremendous economic losses. This year’s disastrous flooding extreme is exceptionally different from those of other years. It contains over 1000-year return period events (for 30-day cumulative precipitation) as observed in Anhui, Guizhou and Sichuan Provinces. The mean precipitation is 308 mm in July 2020, being 54 mm higher than that of July 1998, when serious floods affected the entire Basin causing tremendous socio-economic consequences. Compared with 1998, the short-term (e.g., 1 day) precipitation in YRB did not show significant increases, while the long-term (e.g., 30 days) cumulative precipitation increases significantly. The highest observed 30-day cumulative precipitation is 1221 mm (in Anhui Province) in 2020, while the highest one in 1998 was 1028 mm (in Jiangxi Province). We thus find that this persistent heavy precipitation is the main cause of flooding in 2020. At the same time, TGR may mitigate up 43% of upstream flood, although the main contributors to this year’s YRB flood are in the middle and lower reaches. Affected by COVID-19, the number of people at risk in the threatened area are increased, and their capacities to mitigate the dual impacts of COVID-19 pandemic and flooding are hindered since (a) the flooding-caused mitigations may limit people’s ability to prevent from virus spreading, and (b) the pandemic is retaining a large amount of migrant workers being within YRB and subject to flooding impacts. Overall, our main discovery is that, although the short-term precipitation in YRB did not increase significantly in 2020, the cumulative one increased significantly in 2020.
2020年6 - 7月,长江流域持续强降水造成大面积洪涝灾害,造成158余人死亡,经济损失巨大。今年的特大洪涝灾害与往年截然不同。它包含了安徽、贵州和四川等省观测到的超过1000年的回归周期事件(30天累积降水)。2020年7月平均降水量308 mm,比1998年7月增加54 mm, 1998年7月全流域发生严重洪灾,造成巨大的社会经济后果。与1998年相比,YRB的短期(如1 d)降水没有显著增加,而长期(如30 d)累积降水显著增加。观测到的30天累计降水量在2020年最高为1221 mm(安徽省),而在1998年最高为1028 mm(江西省)。因此,我们发现这种持续的强降水是2020年洪水的主要原因。与此同时,三峡大坝可以缓解43%的上游洪水,尽管今年三峡大坝洪水的主要来源是中下游。受COVID-19影响,受威胁地区面临风险的人数增加,他们减轻COVID-19大流行和洪水双重影响的能力受到阻碍,因为(a)洪水造成的缓解措施可能限制人们防止病毒传播的能力,以及(b)大流行保留了大量在YRB内并受到洪水影响的移徙工人。总体而言,我们的主要发现是,虽然YRB的短期降水在2020年没有显著增加,但累积降水在2020年显著增加。
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引用次数: 7
Environmental Pollution in Pearl River Delta, China: Status and Potential Effects 珠江三角洲环境污染现状及潜在影响
Pub Date : 2020-07-16 DOI: 10.3808/jeil.202000033
F. Wang, R. Hao
Rapid economic growth in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, south China, has resulted in severe pollution of the natural eco-environment since the reform and opening up. Of various sources for eco-environmental deterioration, the negative impact of environmental pollutants is a global concern. Large amounts of research on environmental pollution in the PRD have been accumulated, which allows us to conduct a fairly comprehensive assessment of the environment state of the PRD. This review examines environmental pollutions (e.g., heavy metals, organics) mainly in water, air, and soil. The general information of these pollutions on current levels, possible causes, and potential effects in PRD were reviewed. The study found that heavy metals had an increasing trend in PRD in recent decades, especially for Cr. The sediments in coastal wetlands were significantly contaminated by Cd, Zn, and Ni. The levels of DDTs in various environmental media are of great concern. The discharge of industrial effluents and domestic sewage seemed to cause nutrient and heavy metal pollution in environmental media. Atmospheric emissions of gaseous and particulate pollutants have caused profound environmental and health implications. Growing public concern over the potential accumulation of heavy metals in soils could be owing to rapid urban and industrial development.
改革开放以来,中国南方珠江三角洲地区经济的快速发展导致了自然生态环境的严重污染。在生态环境恶化的各种根源中,环境污染物的负面影响是全球关注的问题。我们对珠江三角洲的环境污染进行了大量的研究,使我们能够对珠江三角洲的环境状况进行较为全面的评估。本文综述了主要存在于水、空气和土壤中的环境污染(如重金属、有机物)。检讨这些污染的一般资料,包括现时在珠三角的污染程度、可能的成因及潜在影响。研究发现,近几十年来,珠三角地区重金属含量呈上升趋势,其中Cr含量尤甚,滨海湿地沉积物中Cd、Zn、Ni污染较为严重。各种环境介质中ddt的含量令人十分关注。工业废水和生活污水的排放似乎造成了环境介质中的营养物和重金属污染。大气中气体和微粒污染物的排放造成了深刻的环境和健康影响。由于城市和工业的快速发展,公众对土壤中潜在的重金属积累越来越关注。
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引用次数: 6
Perspective on Site Selection of Small Modular Reactors 小型模块化反应堆选址展望
Pub Date : 2020-04-04 DOI: 10.3808/jeil.202000026
X. Y. Zhang, G. Huang, L. Liu, J. P. Chen, B. Luo, Y. Fu, X. Zheng, D. Han, Y. Liu
As an emerging means of energy supply, small modular reactors (SMRs) are considered as a promising option for relieving environmental pressure caused by increasing fossil fuel consumption. Since SMRs are at an early stage of development, in-depth analysis on the necessity and feasibility of their deployment is essential. The site selection of SMRs, which is a multifaceted process and should be guided by a clearly established set of criteria, is a crucial step. To propose comprehensive recommendations for SMR site selection, a review is provided in this study. The review involves development process, technical characteristics and potential applications of SMRs, research status of SMR site selection, and criteria for site selection of nuclear power plants (NPPs). Different considerations of siting criteria between SMRs and NPPs are analyzed. Based on the review and analyses, perspectives and targeted suggestions on SMR site selection are provided.
作为一种新兴的能源供应方式,小型模块化反应堆(SMRs)被认为是缓解化石燃料消耗增加所带来的环境压力的一种有前景的选择。由于小型核聚变反应堆处于发展的早期阶段,对其部署的必要性和可行性进行深入分析至关重要。选址是一个多方面的过程,并应以一套明确确立的准则为指导,这是关键的一步。为了对SMR的选址提出全面的建议,本研究提供了一份综述。综述了小堆的发展历程、技术特点和潜在应用、小堆选址研究现状和核电厂选址标准。分析了小堆和核电站选址标准的不同考虑。在回顾和分析的基础上,提出了对小堆选址的展望和针对性建议。
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引用次数: 5
Modeling Air Dispersion of Pollutants Emitted from the Daura Oil Refinery, Baghdad- Iraq using the CALPUFF Modeling System 利用CALPUFF建模系统模拟伊拉克巴格达Daura炼油厂排放的污染物的空气扩散
Pub Date : 2019-10-10 DOI: 10.3808/jeil.201900014
R. M. Shubbar, D. I. Lee, H. A. Gzar, A. Rood
The CALPUFF atmospheric transport model was used to estimate ambient air concentrations of SO2, CO, NO2, and PM2.5, in a 256 km2 region surrounding the Daura oil refinery in Baghdad, Iraq during a six month period in the summer for 2013 and the winter of 2014. The CALPUFF modeling system includes a meteorological processor (CALMET), a Lagrangian puff atmospheric transport model (CALPUFF), and a post processor (CALPOST). Source term and meteorological data, including surface and upper air observations, were pre-processed and formatted for CALMET and CALPUFF using FORTRAN programs. Monthly emission rates and stack parameters for twelve stack sources were included in the model. Winds out of the northwest predominated, followed by winds out of the north and the west. The urban regions with the highest pollutant concentrations in the study domain were the Daura Express Highway located south and southeast of the facility, and the refinery employee residences located west of the facility. These areas were closest to the Daura oil refinery. Predicted pollutant concentrations showed that SO2 and CO were higher than NO2 and PM2.5, for the study period because emission rates of SO2 and CO were greater than NO2 and PM2.5. Monthly dispersion patterns were similar among the pollutants and exhibit plumes in the predominant wind direction. Winter generally had the highest predicted pollutant concentrations compared to the summer months.
利用CALPUFF大气输送模型估算了2013年夏季和2014年冬季六个月期间伊拉克巴格达Daura炼油厂周围256平方公里区域内的SO2、CO、NO2和PM2.5的环境空气浓度。CALPUFF建模系统包括一个气象处理器(CALMET)、一个拉格朗日泡芙大气输送模型(CALPUFF)和一个后置处理器(CALPOST)。源项和气象资料,包括地面和高空观测资料,在CALMET和CALPUFF中使用FORTRAN程序进行预处理和格式化。模型中包含了12个堆源的月排放率和堆参数。以西北风为主,其次是北风和西风。研究区域内污染物浓度最高的城市区域是位于该设施南部和东南部的Daura高速公路,以及位于该设施西部的炼油厂员工住宅。这些地区离Daura炼油厂最近。预测污染物浓度表明,在研究期间,SO2和CO的排放速率大于NO2和PM2.5,因此SO2和CO的排放浓度高于NO2和PM2.5。污染物的月扩散模式相似,在主导风向上呈羽状分布。与夏季相比,冬季通常具有最高的预测污染物浓度。
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引用次数: 12
Automation of Forest Fire Danger Index from the Near Real Time Satellite Datasets 基于近实时卫星数据集的森林火险指数自动化
Pub Date : 2019-10-10 DOI: 10.3808/jeil.201900015
K. Babu, A. Roy
Forest fire is a major ecological disaster, which has economic, social and environmental impacts on humans and also causes the loss of biodiversity. Forest officials issue the warnings to the public on the basis of fire danger index classes. There is no fire danger index for the country India due to the sparsely distributed meteorological stations. In this study, we have made an attempt to integrate both the Static and Dynamic fire danger indices and also used the near real time data sets that can be available for download through Earthdata website after one hour of the satellite overpass and also automated the entire procedure. SFDI is a constant over the study area, computed from the MODIS Land cover type yearly L3 global 500 m SIN grid (MCD12Q1) and ASTER GDEM datasets. In this study, DFDI has been calculated from the Near Real Time (NRT) Level 2 MODIS Terra Land Surface Temperature datasets (MOD11_L2) and MODIS TERRA NRT surface reflectance dataset MOD09. Dynamic danger index has been developed from three parameters i.e. Potential surface temperature, Perpendicular Moisture Index and Modified Normalized Difference Fire Index (MNDFI). Finally, The Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) has been developed from the static and dynamic fire danger indices by the additive model and the overall accuracy was ranging from 86% to 95% and AUC values ranging from 0.81 to 0.91 during the major fire episode of 2016. Thus, the FFDI has been useful to assess the fire danger accurately over the study area and can be useful anywhere, where the meteorological stations are un-available. The procedure of calculating the DFDI and FFDI has been automated in R studio environment in near real time and therefore, the fire danger maps can be disseminated to fire officials in near real time for the quick actions to suppress the fire activities.
森林火灾是一种重大的生态灾害,对人类造成经济、社会和环境影响,也造成生物多样性的丧失。森林官员根据火灾危险指数等级向公众发布警告。由于气象站分布稀疏,印度没有火灾危险指数。在这项研究中,我们尝试将静态和动态火灾危险指数结合起来,并使用了卫星立交桥一小时后可通过Earthdata网站下载的近实时数据集,并实现了整个过程的自动化。SFDI是研究区域的一个常数,由MODIS土地覆盖类型每年L3全球500 m SIN网格(MCD12Q1)和ASTER GDEM数据集计算得出。本研究利用近实时(NRT) 2级MODIS Terra地表温度数据集(MOD11_L2)和MODIS Terra NRT地表反射率数据集MOD09计算DFDI。动态危险指数由潜在地表温度、垂直湿度指数和修正归一化差分火灾指数(MNDFI)三个参数组成。最后,采用加性模型将静态火险指数和动态火险指数综合起来,得到了森林火险指数(FFDI),整体精度为86% ~ 95%,AUC值为0.81 ~ 0.91。因此,FFDI在准确评估研究地区的火灾危险方面是有用的,在没有气象站的任何地方都可以使用。计算DFDI和FFDI的过程已经在R studio环境中实现了近乎实时的自动化,因此,火灾危险地图可以近乎实时地分发给消防官员,以便快速采取行动扑灭火灾活动。
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引用次数: 1
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Journal of Environmental Informatics Letters
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