Dr. Mahathir is often credited with Malaysia’s economic success post-1980. However, it is well known that the Mahathir regime centralized power in the Office of the Prime Minister and extended state capacity, creating a system of government susceptible to corruption. This corruption eventually made global headlines in 2015 with the 1MDB $5 billion dollar scandal. Thus, while Malaysia did experience growth that coincided with the reign of Dr. Mahathir, it is possible that his regime limited this positive change. We use the Synthetic Control Method to study the impact of Dr. Mahathir on the Malaysian economy. We compare economic outcomes in Malaysia under Dr. Mahathir’s reign with outcomes in counterfactual Malaysia, a Synthetic Control constructed from a set of similar countries that did not experience such change. We find that while Malaysia did experience growth throughout Dr. Mahathir’s leadership, GDP per-capita was far below (approximately $4,000 per-capita below 9-years following the treatment) its potential as measured by Synthetic Malaysia. This study provides some evidence of a negative economic effect from power centralization and, perhaps, from enhanced state capacity.
{"title":"The Effect of Dr. Mahathir on the Malaysian Economy","authors":"A. Adisa, M. Farmer, Jamie Bologna Pavlik","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3808696","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3808696","url":null,"abstract":"Dr. Mahathir is often credited with Malaysia’s economic success post-1980. However, it is well known that the Mahathir regime centralized power in the Office of the Prime Minister and extended state capacity, creating a system of government susceptible to corruption. This corruption eventually made global headlines in 2015 with the 1MDB $5 billion dollar scandal. Thus, while Malaysia did experience growth that coincided with the reign of Dr. Mahathir, it is possible that his regime limited this positive change. We use the Synthetic Control Method to study the impact of Dr. Mahathir on the Malaysian economy. We compare economic outcomes in Malaysia under Dr. Mahathir’s reign with outcomes in counterfactual Malaysia, a Synthetic Control constructed from a set of similar countries that did not experience such change. We find that while Malaysia did experience growth throughout Dr. Mahathir’s leadership, GDP per-capita was far below (approximately $4,000 per-capita below 9-years following the treatment) its potential as measured by Synthetic Malaysia. This study provides some evidence of a negative economic effect from power centralization and, perhaps, from enhanced state capacity.","PeriodicalId":144069,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Institutional Change & Economic Growth (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132569250","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Russian abstract: В статье анализируется взаимосвязь между ростом ВВП в России и показателем совокупного экономического настроения, который основан на результатах регулярных крупномасштабных опросов предприятий и домашних хозяйств за период 1998–2020 годов. Цель исследования - обосновать эмпирическую ценность данных о мнениях хозяйствующих субъектов, оценить ценность этой информации для статистического описания и анализа макроэкономических реалий, включая экономические циклы и внезапные кризисы.
English abstract: The article analyzes the relationship between GDP growth in Russia and the indicator of aggregate economic sentiment, which is based on the results of regular large-scale surveys of businesses and households for the period 1998–2020. The purpose of the study is to substantiate the empirical value of data on the opinions of business entities, to assess the value of this information for the statistical description and analysis of macroeconomic realities, including business cycles and sudden crises.
{"title":"АНАЛИЗ ВЗАИМОСВЯЗИ ИНДИКАТОРА ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОГО ОТНОШЕНИЯ И РОСТА (Analysis of Interconnection of the Indicator of Economic Attitude and Growth)","authors":"T. Lipkind","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3792742","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3792742","url":null,"abstract":"<b>Russian abstract:</b> В статье анализируется взаимосвязь между ростом ВВП в России и показателем совокупного экономического настроения, который основан на результатах регулярных крупномасштабных опросов предприятий и домашних хозяйств за период 1998–2020 годов. Цель исследования - обосновать эмпирическую ценность данных о мнениях хозяйствующих субъектов, оценить ценность этой информации для статистического описания и анализа макроэкономических реалий, включая экономические циклы и внезапные кризисы.<br><br><b>English abstract:</b> The article analyzes the relationship between GDP growth in Russia and the indicator of aggregate economic sentiment, which is based on the results of regular large-scale surveys of businesses and households for the period 1998–2020. The purpose of the study is to substantiate the empirical value of data on the opinions of business entities, to assess the value of this information for the statistical description and analysis of macroeconomic realities, including business cycles and sudden crises.","PeriodicalId":144069,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Institutional Change & Economic Growth (Topic)","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125135235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-10-10DOI: 10.18288/1994-5124-2020-5-60-89
Aleksandr Tomaev, A. Kaukin, P. Pavlov
Russian Abstract: В статье разрабатывается модель, объясняющая объемы торговых потоков между регионами России. В основе работы лежат данные о грузовых железнодорожных перевозках за 2012–2016 годы. Излагаются предпосылки, обосновывающие использование гравитационной модели для изучения торговли с использованием одного вида транспорта. Для целей корректной оценки гравитационного уравнения на основе оригинальной авторской методики, адаптированной к имеющимся данным, решается проблема перехода от натуральных объемов торговли к стоимостным. Результаты исследования показывают, что классические факторы внешней торговли имеют хорошую объясняющую силу при моделировании внутренней торговли России посредством железнодорожного транспорта. Коэффициенты при переменных валовых региональных продуктов и расстояния оказались близки к тем, которые были получены в предыдущих исследованиях по международной и внутренней торговле. Наряду с переменной расстояния в модель включался показатель среднего тарифа за перевозку. Значимость коэффициентов обеих переменных подтвердила предположение, что на торговлю могут оказывать влияние не только транспортные, но и иные торговые издержки. Представленные результаты дают основание утверждать, что объем экспорта региона-отправителя относительно его ВРП положительно связан с объемом двусторонних межрегиональных товарных потоков. Включение в модель набора индикаторов на регионы практически не изменило коэффициенты при переменных расстояния и среднего тарифа на перевозку, что свидетельствует об устойчивости полученных оценок. Фактор уровня развитости инфраструктуры оказался незначимым. Фактором, отрицательно влияющим на объем торговли, является уровень коррупции в регионе-получателе.
English Abstract: This article uses the gravity model to explain the trade flows between the regions of Russia. The data used contains information on all rail freight flows in tonnes for the period 2012–2016. The authors discuss the assumptions that make the gravity model applicable for trade by one mode of transport. For the purpose of correct estimation of the gravity equation, the special method of obtaining trade values in rubles was developed. The coefficients of distance and gross regional products are close to the results of previous studies on international and domestic trade. Along with the distance factor, the average rail tariff variable was included in the model. The significance of the coefficients of both variables has confirmed that trade flows are determined not only by transport costs, but by other trade costs, too. The results suggest that the export volume of the sending region proportional to its output is positively related to the volume of bilateral domestic trade flows. Accounting for regional fixed effects has not changed the coefficients of distance and average tariffs significantly, indicating the robustness of the estimates. No proof has been found for the impact of infrastructure on trade. An institutional f
{"title":"Внутренняя торговля России: применение гравитационной модели (Russian Domestic Trade: Applying the Gravity Model for Rail Cargo Flows)","authors":"Aleksandr Tomaev, A. Kaukin, P. Pavlov","doi":"10.18288/1994-5124-2020-5-60-89","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18288/1994-5124-2020-5-60-89","url":null,"abstract":"<b>Russian Abstract:</b> В статье разрабатывается модель, объясняющая объемы торговых потоков между регионами России. В основе работы лежат данные о грузовых железнодорожных перевозках за 2012–2016 годы. Излагаются предпосылки, обосновывающие использование гравитационной модели для изучения торговли с использованием одного вида транспорта. Для целей корректной оценки гравитационного уравнения на основе оригинальной авторской методики, адаптированной к имеющимся данным, решается проблема перехода от натуральных объемов торговли к стоимостным. Результаты исследования показывают, что классические факторы внешней торговли имеют хорошую объясняющую силу при моделировании внутренней торговли России посредством железнодорожного транспорта. Коэффициенты при переменных валовых региональных продуктов и расстояния оказались близки к тем, которые были получены в предыдущих исследованиях по международной и внутренней торговле. Наряду с переменной расстояния в модель включался показатель среднего тарифа за перевозку. Значимость коэффициентов обеих переменных подтвердила предположение, что на торговлю могут оказывать влияние не только транспортные, но и иные торговые издержки. Представленные результаты дают основание утверждать, что объем экспорта региона-отправителя относительно его ВРП положительно связан с объемом двусторонних межрегиональных товарных потоков. Включение в модель набора индикаторов на регионы практически не изменило коэффициенты при переменных расстояния и среднего тарифа на перевозку, что свидетельствует об устойчивости полученных оценок. Фактор уровня развитости инфраструктуры оказался незначимым. Фактором, отрицательно влияющим на объем торговли, является уровень коррупции в регионе-получателе.<br><br><b>English Abstract:</b> This article uses the gravity model to explain the trade flows between the regions of Russia. The data used contains information on all rail freight flows in tonnes for the period 2012–2016. The authors discuss the assumptions that make the gravity model applicable for trade by one mode of transport. For the purpose of correct estimation of the gravity equation, the special method of obtaining trade values in rubles was developed. The coefficients of distance and gross regional products are close to the results of previous studies on international and domestic trade. Along with the distance factor, the average rail tariff variable was included in the model. The significance of the coefficients of both variables has confirmed that trade flows are determined not only by transport costs, but by other trade costs, too. The results suggest that the export volume of the sending region proportional to its output is positively related to the volume of bilateral domestic trade flows. Accounting for regional fixed effects has not changed the coefficients of distance and average tariffs significantly, indicating the robustness of the estimates. No proof has been found for the impact of infrastructure on trade. An institutional f","PeriodicalId":144069,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Institutional Change & Economic Growth (Topic)","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127982617","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The peak of economic shock resulted from the first wave of COVID-19 has already passed in many countries, and currently, the focus of economic policy is shifting towards recovery. In the context of a gradual resumption of business activity and stabilization in financial markets, the authorities are so far abandoning new economic incentives, while extending effective terms of previously adopted measures.
{"title":"Operational Monitoring of Socio-Economic Policy Aimed to Ease the COVID-19 Inpacts","authors":"P. Trunin, A. Evseev, F. Iskhakova","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3673273","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3673273","url":null,"abstract":"The peak of economic shock resulted from the first wave of COVID-19 has already passed in many countries, and currently, the focus of economic policy is shifting towards recovery. In the context of a gradual resumption of business activity and stabilization in financial markets, the authorities are so far abandoning new economic incentives, while extending effective terms of previously adopted measures.","PeriodicalId":144069,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Institutional Change & Economic Growth (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122240322","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Russian Abstract: Данное исследование посвящено изучению аспектов трансформации механизмов взаимодействия экономических агентов в рамках современной экономической системы под влиянием распространения процессов цифровизации экономики, ее влияния на поведение различных типов экономических агентов, выявление прямых и косвенных эффектов цифровизации на экономический рост и разработка рекомендаций для экономической политики в России, направленных на максимизацию положительных эффектов цифровизации для роста экономики РФ. Изучен широкий перечень факторов, осуществлён анализ их влияния, разработаны методологические подходы к оценке влияния цифровизации экономики на динамику основных социально-экономических параметров и проведены эмпирические исследования на основе данных подходов. Проведенные экспериментальные расчеты имеют в большей степени демонстрационный характер, а их основной целью является апробация предложенного методического подхода к измерению уровня и динамики цифровизации российской экономики в системе акроэкономических оценок.
English Abstract: This working paper is devoted to the study of interaction mechanism transformation aspects of economic agents within the framework of the modern economic system under the influence of digitization. It also studies influence of digitization on the behavior of various types of economic agents, the identification of its direct and indirect effects on economic growth. Based on the research some we give some economic policy recommendations for Russian economy in order to maximize the positive effects of digitization for the further growth. A wide range of factors was studied, an analysis of their influence was carried out, methodological approaches to assessing the impact of the digitization of the economy on the dynamics of the main socio-economic parameters were developed, and empirical studies based on these approaches were carried out. The experimental calculations carried out in the study are more demonstrative in nature, and their main goal is to test the proposed methodological approach to measuring the level and dynamics of digitization of the Russian economy in the system of macroeconomic estimates.
{"title":"Теоретические и методологические подходы к анализу макроэкономической динамики в современной экономике с учетом ее цифровизации (Theoretical and Methodological Approaches to the Analysis of Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Modern Economy, Taking Into Account Its Digitization)","authors":"Alexander Knobel, Yury Zaitsev","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3663226","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3663226","url":null,"abstract":"<b>Russian Abstract:</b> Данное исследование посвящено изучению аспектов трансформации механизмов взаимодействия экономических агентов в рамках современной экономической системы под влиянием распространения процессов цифровизации экономики, ее влияния на поведение различных типов экономических агентов, выявление прямых и косвенных эффектов цифровизации на экономический рост и разработка рекомендаций для экономической политики в России, направленных на максимизацию положительных эффектов цифровизации для роста экономики РФ. Изучен широкий перечень факторов, осуществлён анализ их влияния, разработаны методологические подходы к оценке влияния цифровизации экономики на динамику основных социально-экономических параметров и проведены эмпирические исследования на основе данных подходов. Проведенные экспериментальные расчеты имеют в большей степени демонстрационный характер, а их основной целью является апробация предложенного методического подхода к измерению уровня и динамики цифровизации российской экономики в системе акроэкономических оценок.<br><br><b>English Abstract:</b> This working paper is devoted to the study of interaction mechanism transformation aspects of economic agents within the framework of the modern economic system under the influence of digitization. It also studies influence of digitization on the behavior of various types of economic agents, the identification of its direct and indirect effects on economic growth. Based on the research some we give some economic policy recommendations for Russian economy in order to maximize the positive effects of digitization for the further growth. A wide range of factors was studied, an analysis of their influence was carried out, methodological approaches to assessing the impact of the digitization of the economy on the dynamics of the main socio-economic parameters were developed, and empirical studies based on these approaches were carried out. The experimental calculations carried out in the study are more demonstrative in nature, and their main goal is to test the proposed methodological approach to measuring the level and dynamics of digitization of the Russian economy in the system of macroeconomic estimates.","PeriodicalId":144069,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Institutional Change & Economic Growth (Topic)","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122528735","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Aganbegyan, L. Kleeva, N. Krotova, Alexander Krotov
This work is a generalization of the approaches formulated and used by the authors when constructing the concepts of strategies for the development of a number of regions of Russia, the Republic of Kazakhstan, and Armenia. The work on the construction of the concepts of the strategies of these regions and the generalization of the results of work for each of the regions made it possible to formulate the main mandatory stages of the formation of such strategies: identifying the main directions of the economic and social development of the region, concretizing the development of certain spheres and branches of its national economy, highlighting the key ones, forming a system measures to enhance the development of key areas and industries capable of activating its socio-economic development. The results of the work allow formulating recommendations for the creation of concepts for the development of regions of the CIS countries.
{"title":"Целевая направленность и системный подход к разработке концепции стратегии развития региона (Target Orientation and Systematic Approach to the Development of the Concept of the Regional Development Strategy)","authors":"A. Aganbegyan, L. Kleeva, N. Krotova, Alexander Krotov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3677906","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3677906","url":null,"abstract":"This work is a generalization of the approaches formulated and used by the authors when constructing the concepts of strategies for the development of a number of regions of Russia, the Republic of Kazakhstan, and Armenia. The work on the construction of the concepts of the strategies of these regions and the generalization of the results of work for each of the regions made it possible to formulate the main mandatory stages of the formation of such strategies: identifying the main directions of the economic and social development of the region, concretizing the development of certain spheres and branches of its national economy, highlighting the key ones, forming a system measures to enhance the development of key areas and industries capable of activating its socio-economic development. The results of the work allow formulating recommendations for the creation of concepts for the development of regions of the CIS countries.","PeriodicalId":144069,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Institutional Change & Economic Growth (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131022257","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We develop a model to rationalize and examine so-called “research bubbles”, i.e. research activities based on overoptimistic beliefs about the impact of this research on the economy. Research bubbles occur when researchers selfselect into research activities and the government aggregates the assessment of active researchers on the way advances in research may spur innovation and growth. In an overlapping generations framework, we study the occurrence of research bubbles and show that they tend to be welfare-improving. Particular forms can even implement the socially optimal solution. However, research bubbles can collapse, and we discuss institutional devices and the role of debt financing that ensure the sustainability of such bubbles. Finally, we demonstrate that research bubbles emerge in various extensions of our baseline model.
{"title":"Research Bubbles","authors":"H. Gersbach, E. Komarov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3580053","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3580053","url":null,"abstract":"We develop a model to rationalize and examine so-called “research bubbles”, i.e. research activities based on overoptimistic beliefs about the impact of this research on the economy. Research bubbles occur when researchers selfselect into research activities and the government aggregates the assessment of active researchers on the way advances in research may spur innovation and growth. In an overlapping generations framework, we study the occurrence of research bubbles and show that they tend to be welfare-improving. Particular forms can even implement the socially optimal solution. However, research bubbles can collapse, and we discuss institutional devices and the role of debt financing that ensure the sustainability of such bubbles. Finally, we demonstrate that research bubbles emerge in various extensions of our baseline model.","PeriodicalId":144069,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Institutional Change & Economic Growth (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117324616","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study presents a new framework of assessing the causal effect of institutions on economic growth via exploiting the exogenous variation in institutions triggered by “peer pressure” exerted on governments by other states, affecting policy decisions and the environment national and international businesses operate in. The applied method reinforces the importance of institutional factors for economic outcomes and allows to effectively address the data quality and instrument validity concerns surrounding earlier studies. Most importantly, the “peer pressure” method allows to distinguish between influences of various institutions, answering not only the question whether, but also which institutions do matter for growth. The study shows that the proposed method has significant power to “unbundle institutions” and finds that property rights protection and financial freedom are more important for growth than democracy, constraint on the executive, legal origins, or business freedom, even when controlled for human capital. The developed method has significant applicability in future research of institutional and cultural impact on international business and economic outcomes.
{"title":"New Evidence on the Institutional Causes of Economic Growth: Using Peer Pressure to Unbundle Institutions across Countries","authors":"Savva Shanaev, R. Wanjiru","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3497642","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3497642","url":null,"abstract":"This study presents a new framework of assessing the causal effect of institutions on economic growth via exploiting the exogenous variation in institutions triggered by “peer pressure” exerted on governments by other states, affecting policy decisions and the environment national and international businesses operate in. The applied method reinforces the importance of institutional factors for economic outcomes and allows to effectively address the data quality and instrument validity concerns surrounding earlier studies. Most importantly, the “peer pressure” method allows to distinguish between influences of various institutions, answering not only the question whether, but also which institutions do matter for growth. The study shows that the proposed method has significant power to “unbundle institutions” and finds that property rights protection and financial freedom are more important for growth than democracy, constraint on the executive, legal origins, or business freedom, even when controlled for human capital. The developed method has significant applicability in future research of institutional and cultural impact on international business and economic outcomes.","PeriodicalId":144069,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Institutional Change & Economic Growth (Topic)","volume":"59 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124428713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines the macro-economic performance of Vietnam through the six phases of Doi Moi reform and analyzes the impact of external liberalization on economic growth, aggregate demand, employment and income distribution. The decomposition of aggregate demand suggests that private investment was the most important determinant of Vietnamese economic growth during the period of 1994 – 2011, while government expenditure has become more significant since 2005, and the external sector together with government expenditure are the important driving factors of Vietnamese economic growth since 2012. The decomposition of overall labor productivity highlighted the fact that sectoral productivity growth of the service sector plays an important role in the improvement of overall labor productivity in Vietnam.
{"title":"Economic Reforms, External Liberalization and Macroeconomic Performance in Vietnam","authors":"Huong Le","doi":"10.31219/osf.io/ctj5z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/ctj5z","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the macro-economic performance of Vietnam through the six phases of Doi Moi reform and analyzes the impact of external liberalization on economic growth, aggregate demand, employment and income distribution. The decomposition of aggregate demand suggests that private investment was the most important determinant of Vietnamese economic growth during the period of 1994 – 2011, while government expenditure has become more significant since 2005, and the external sector together with government expenditure are the important driving factors of Vietnamese economic growth since 2012. The decomposition of overall labor productivity highlighted the fact that sectoral productivity growth of the service sector plays an important role in the improvement of overall labor productivity in Vietnam.","PeriodicalId":144069,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Institutional Change & Economic Growth (Topic)","volume":"61 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126245476","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The medium-term forecast released by the RF Ministry of Economic Development has been altered by downgrading the economic indices compared with its April version. However, the growth rate of real GDP for 2019 has been left unchanged (1.3%), and its index for the next year has been decreased from 2% to 1.7%. As far as the budgetary process is concerned, the GDP indices in nominal terms have likewise been reduced, thus translating into expectable revenue cuts. In this connection, it would also be reasonable to expect a shrinkage of expenditure, to be followed by a shrinkage of domestic demand.
{"title":"Economic Growth: The Forecasts Are Downgraded","authors":"A. Vedev","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3470193","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3470193","url":null,"abstract":"The medium-term forecast released by the RF Ministry of Economic Development has been altered by downgrading the economic indices compared with its April version. However, the growth rate of real GDP for 2019 has been left unchanged (1.3%), and its index for the next year has been decreased from 2% to 1.7%. As far as the budgetary process is concerned, the GDP indices in nominal terms have likewise been reduced, thus translating into expectable revenue cuts. In this connection, it would also be reasonable to expect a shrinkage of expenditure, to be followed by a shrinkage of domestic demand.","PeriodicalId":144069,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Institutional Change & Economic Growth (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130475369","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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