Using detailed information about establishments owned by U.S. public firms, we construct a novel measure of geographic linkage between firms. We show that the returns of geography-linked firms have strong predictive power for focal firm returns and fundamentals. A long-short strategy based on this effect yields monthly value-weighted alpha of approximately 60 basis points. This effect is distinct from other cross-firm return predictability and is not easily attributable to risk-based explanations. It is more pronounced for focal firms that receive lower investor attention, are more costly to arbitrage, and during high sentiment periods. In addition, we find sell-side analysts similarly underreact, as their forecast revisions of geography-linked firms predict their future revisions of focal firms. Using natural disasters as localized shocks, we provide evidence that the lead-lag relation results from shock spillover among geographic peers in addition to their common exposure to the regional economy.
{"title":"Geographic Links and Predictable Returns","authors":"Zuben Jin, F. Li","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3617417","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3617417","url":null,"abstract":"Using detailed information about establishments owned by U.S. public firms, we construct a novel measure of geographic linkage between firms. We show that the returns of geography-linked firms have strong predictive power for focal firm returns and fundamentals. A long-short strategy based on this effect yields monthly value-weighted alpha of approximately 60 basis points. This effect is distinct from other cross-firm return predictability and is not easily attributable to risk-based explanations. It is more pronounced for focal firms that receive lower investor attention, are more costly to arbitrage, and during high sentiment periods. In addition, we find sell-side analysts similarly underreact, as their forecast revisions of geography-linked firms predict their future revisions of focal firms. Using natural disasters as localized shocks, we provide evidence that the lead-lag relation results from shock spillover among geographic peers in addition to their common exposure to the regional economy.","PeriodicalId":151026,"journal":{"name":"Singapore Management University Lee Kong Chian School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122489009","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Xueying Bian, Ran Chang, Sergei Sarkissian, Jun Tu
This paper uses Glassdoor data and finds that the returns of similar employee satisfaction (SES) firms predict focal firm returns. A long-short portfolio sorted on the lagged returns of SES firms yields the Fama-French six-factor alpha of 135 bps per month. The observed predictability holds also in multivariate estimations, is distinct from industry and all existing inter-firm momentum effects, and cannot be explained by risk-based arguments or replicated with ESG scores or other firm characteristics. A new mechanism – common decision-making on employee welfare policies resulting from various information transfer channels – is the primary reason of return predictability in these firms.
{"title":"Return Cross-Predictability in Firms with Similar Employee Satisfaction","authors":"Xueying Bian, Ran Chang, Sergei Sarkissian, Jun Tu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3469633","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3469633","url":null,"abstract":"This paper uses Glassdoor data and finds that the returns of similar employee satisfaction (SES) firms predict focal firm returns. A long-short portfolio sorted on the lagged returns of SES firms yields the Fama-French six-factor alpha of 135 bps per month. The observed predictability holds also in multivariate estimations, is distinct from industry and all existing inter-firm momentum effects, and cannot be explained by risk-based arguments or replicated with ESG scores or other firm characteristics. A new mechanism – common decision-making on employee welfare policies resulting from various information transfer channels – is the primary reason of return predictability in these firms.","PeriodicalId":151026,"journal":{"name":"Singapore Management University Lee Kong Chian School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133275360","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Motivated by the emergence of various corporate social responsibility (CSR) rankings and awards, we study the impacts of distributional social comparison behavior of firms on CSR in a supply chain, consisting of one manufacturer and one retailer. Both the manufacturer and the retailer can choose to make CSR investment, which attracts CSR-concerned consumers. We consider two types of social comparison behavior: ahead seeking that makes one willing to overperform relative to others, and ahead averse that results in underperforming. We find that if the retailer is a large enterprise who has strong negotiation power in the supply chain, his ahead-seeking behavior cannot motivate the up-tier manufacturer to increase CSR investment. In contrast, if the retailer is small, his ahead-seeking behavior can lead to significant increase in the manufacturer’s CSR investment. This is because the increased market share achieved by the small ahead-seeking retailer makes it profitable for the manufacturer to increase CSR investment. Interestingly, the total CSR investment of the supply chain is also higher with the small ahead-seeking retailer than that with the large ahead-seeking retailer. On the other hand, the ahead-averse behavior of the retailer increases the manufacturer’s CSR investment if the retailer is large, whereas it reduces the manufacturer’s investment if the retailer is small. While many contemporary CSR rankings and awards are for large firms in practice, our results suggest that governments and NGOs should pay more attention to small firms, motivating their ahead-seeking behavior or deterring ahead-averse behavior through rankings and awards. Measures to promote consumers’ social consciousness are also helpful to leverage the benefit of ahead-seeking behavior or to offset the negative effect of ahead-averse behavior.
{"title":"Impacts of Distributional Social Comparison Behavior on Corporate Social Responsibility: Power of the Small","authors":"Mingzheng Wang, Zizhuo Wang, X. Fang, Ying‐ju Chen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3350157","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3350157","url":null,"abstract":"Motivated by the emergence of various corporate social responsibility (CSR) rankings and awards, we study the impacts of distributional social comparison behavior of firms on CSR in a supply chain, consisting of one manufacturer and one retailer. Both the manufacturer and the retailer can choose to make CSR investment, which attracts CSR-concerned consumers. We consider two types of social comparison behavior: ahead seeking that makes one willing to overperform relative to others, and ahead averse that results in underperforming. We find that if the retailer is a large enterprise who has strong negotiation power in the supply chain, his ahead-seeking behavior cannot motivate the up-tier manufacturer to increase CSR investment. In contrast, if the retailer is small, his ahead-seeking behavior can lead to significant increase in the manufacturer’s CSR investment. This is because the increased market share achieved by the small ahead-seeking retailer makes it profitable for the manufacturer to increase CSR investment. Interestingly, the total CSR investment of the supply chain is also higher with the small ahead-seeking retailer than that with the large ahead-seeking retailer. On the other hand, the ahead-averse behavior of the retailer increases the manufacturer’s CSR investment if the retailer is large, whereas it reduces the manufacturer’s investment if the retailer is small. While many contemporary CSR rankings and awards are for large firms in practice, our results suggest that governments and NGOs should pay more attention to small firms, motivating their ahead-seeking behavior or deterring ahead-averse behavior through rankings and awards. Measures to promote consumers’ social consciousness are also helpful to leverage the benefit of ahead-seeking behavior or to offset the negative effect of ahead-averse behavior.<br>","PeriodicalId":151026,"journal":{"name":"Singapore Management University Lee Kong Chian School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"79 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121014626","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Motivated by the nature of asset pricing models, we investigate the cross-sectional relation between the market's ex-ante view of a stock's risk and the stock's ex-ante expected return. We demonstrate that an ex-ante measure of expected returns based on analyst price targets is highly related to the market's required rate of return. Using this measure, we show that ex-ante measures of volatility, skewness, and kurtosis derived from option prices are positively related to ex-ante expected returns. We then decompose the risk measures into systematic and unsystematic components and find that while expected returns are related to both systematic and unsystematic variance risk, only the unsystematic components of skewness and kurtosis are important for explaining the cross-section of expected stock returns. The results are consistent using two different approaches to measuring ex-ante risk and robust to controls for other variables related to stock returns and analyst bias.
{"title":"Option Implied Volatility, Skewness, and Kurtosis and the Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns","authors":"Turan G. Bali, Jianfeng Hu, Scott Murray","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2322945","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2322945","url":null,"abstract":"Motivated by the nature of asset pricing models, we investigate the cross-sectional relation between the market's ex-ante view of a stock's risk and the stock's ex-ante expected return. We demonstrate that an ex-ante measure of expected returns based on analyst price targets is highly related to the market's required rate of return. Using this measure, we show that ex-ante measures of volatility, skewness, and kurtosis derived from option prices are positively related to ex-ante expected returns. We then decompose the risk measures into systematic and unsystematic components and find that while expected returns are related to both systematic and unsystematic variance risk, only the unsystematic components of skewness and kurtosis are important for explaining the cross-section of expected stock returns. The results are consistent using two different approaches to measuring ex-ante risk and robust to controls for other variables related to stock returns and analyst bias.","PeriodicalId":151026,"journal":{"name":"Singapore Management University Lee Kong Chian School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129779032","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Gennaro Bernile, Alok Kumar, Johan Sulaeman, Qin Emma Wang
This study examines how changes in the information environment affect the informational advantage of geographically proximate agents. We find that the long-term advantage of local agents disappeared at the turn of the millennium. This is accompanied by the reduction in local bias of institutional investors and equity analysts. However, institutional investors continue to trade local stocks disproportionately more often than nonlocal stocks; moreover, their local trades outperform nonlocal trades in the short term -- even for large and liquid stocks. Our results are consistent with improvements in the information environment shortening the horizon of geographic proximity-based informational advantage.
{"title":"Has Local Informational Advantage Disappeared?","authors":"Gennaro Bernile, Alok Kumar, Johan Sulaeman, Qin Emma Wang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2772127","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2772127","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines how changes in the information environment affect the informational advantage of geographically proximate agents. We find that the long-term advantage of local agents disappeared at the turn of the millennium. This is accompanied by the reduction in local bias of institutional investors and equity analysts. However, institutional investors continue to trade local stocks disproportionately more often than nonlocal stocks; moreover, their local trades outperform nonlocal trades in the short term -- even for large and liquid stocks. Our results are consistent with improvements in the information environment shortening the horizon of geographic proximity-based informational advantage.","PeriodicalId":151026,"journal":{"name":"Singapore Management University Lee Kong Chian School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128946732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We develop a new model where the dynamic structure of the asset price, after the fundamental value is removed, is subject to two different regimes. One regime reflects the normal period where the asset price divided by the dividend is assumed to follow a mean-reverting process around a stochastic long run mean. The second regime reflects the bubble period with explosive behavior. Stochastic switches between two regimes and non-constant probabilities of exit from the bubble regime are both allowed. A Bayesian learning approach is employed to jointly estimate the latent states and the model parameters in real time. An important feature of our Bayesian method is that we are able to deal with parameter uncertainty and at the same time, to learn about the states and the parameters sequentially, allowing for real time model analysis. This feature is particularly useful for market surveillance. Analysis using simulated data reveals that our method has good power properties for detecting bubbles. Empirical analysis using price-dividend ratios of S&P500 highlights the advantages of our method.
{"title":"Bayesian Analysis of Bubbles in Asset Prices","authors":"Andras Fulop, Jun Yu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2400050","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2400050","url":null,"abstract":"We develop a new model where the dynamic structure of the asset price, after the fundamental value is removed, is subject to two different regimes. One regime reflects the normal period where the asset price divided by the dividend is assumed to follow a mean-reverting process around a stochastic long run mean. The second regime reflects the bubble period with explosive behavior. Stochastic switches between two regimes and non-constant probabilities of exit from the bubble regime are both allowed. A Bayesian learning approach is employed to jointly estimate the latent states and the model parameters in real time. An important feature of our Bayesian method is that we are able to deal with parameter uncertainty and at the same time, to learn about the states and the parameters sequentially, allowing for real time model analysis. This feature is particularly useful for market surveillance. Analysis using simulated data reveals that our method has good power properties for detecting bubbles. Empirical analysis using price-dividend ratios of S&P500 highlights the advantages of our method.","PeriodicalId":151026,"journal":{"name":"Singapore Management University Lee Kong Chian School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114742675","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We provide novel evidence that a firm’s engagement in employee-related issues explains part of the value difference between its domestic and cross-border takeovers. An acquirer’s investment in employee relations is positively related to the firm’s performance when acquiring domestically, but labor-related frictions reverse this effect when acquiring a foreign target. The results cannot be explained by country-level labor regulation but are consistent with the notion that labor-related frictions exist that prohibit firms from efficiently transforming monetary incentives in higher shareholder value when acquiring a foreign target firm.
{"title":"Cross-Border Acquisitions and Employee-Engagement","authors":"Hao Liang, L. Renneboog, C. Vansteenkiste","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3040579","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3040579","url":null,"abstract":"We provide novel evidence that a firm’s engagement in employee-related issues explains part of the value difference between its domestic and cross-border takeovers. An acquirer’s investment in employee relations is positively related to the firm’s performance when acquiring domestically, but labor-related frictions reverse this effect when acquiring a foreign target. The results cannot be explained by country-level labor regulation but are consistent with the notion that labor-related frictions exist that prohibit firms from efficiently transforming monetary incentives in higher shareholder value when acquiring a foreign target firm.","PeriodicalId":151026,"journal":{"name":"Singapore Management University Lee Kong Chian School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124699932","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We examine the effects of diversity in the board of directors on corporate policies and risk. Using a multidimensional measure, we find that greater board diversity leads to lower volatility and better performance. The lower risk levels are largely due to diverse boards adopting more persistent and less risky financial policies. However, consistent with diversity fostering more efficient (real) risk-taking, firms with greater board diversity also invest persistently more in research and development (R&D) and have more efficient innovation processes. Instrumental variable tests that exploit exogenous variation in firm access to the supply of diverse nonlocal directors indicate that these relations are causal.
{"title":"Board Diversity, Firm Risk, and Corporate Policies","authors":"Gennaro Bernile, Vineet Bhagwat, Scott E. Yonker","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2733394","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2733394","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the effects of diversity in the board of directors on corporate policies and risk. Using a multidimensional measure, we find that greater board diversity leads to lower volatility and better performance. The lower risk levels are largely due to diverse boards adopting more persistent and less risky financial policies. However, consistent with diversity fostering more efficient (real) risk-taking, firms with greater board diversity also invest persistently more in research and development (R&D) and have more efficient innovation processes. Instrumental variable tests that exploit exogenous variation in firm access to the supply of diverse nonlocal directors indicate that these relations are causal.","PeriodicalId":151026,"journal":{"name":"Singapore Management University Lee Kong Chian School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"9 6","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131727402","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Palazzo [2012] finds a positive relation between cash holdings and stock return and attributes this to the association between cash and systematic risk with respect to growth options. In this paper, I try to test whether the relation between cash and return is driven by systematic risk that captured by cash. The empirical results do not support the risk explanation of cash-return relation. First, the loadings on CASH factor cannot predict returns, which is not consistent with rational frictionless asset pricing models. Second, CASH factor cannot reflect future GDP growth. Third, CASH and its factor loadings exhibit no association with implied cost of capital derived from analysts’ earnings forecasts. Overall, this paper casts doubt on the argument that cash can serve as a proxy of systematic risk in the explanation of cross sectional variation in stock returns.
{"title":"Is Cash-Return Relation Risk Induced?","authors":"Chenxin Liu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2900072","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2900072","url":null,"abstract":"Palazzo [2012] finds a positive relation between cash holdings and stock return and attributes this to the association between cash and systematic risk with respect to growth options. In this paper, I try to test whether the relation between cash and return is driven by systematic risk that captured by cash. The empirical results do not support the risk explanation of cash-return relation. First, the loadings on CASH factor cannot predict returns, which is not consistent with rational frictionless asset pricing models. Second, CASH factor cannot reflect future GDP growth. Third, CASH and its factor loadings exhibit no association with implied cost of capital derived from analysts’ earnings forecasts. Overall, this paper casts doubt on the argument that cash can serve as a proxy of systematic risk in the explanation of cross sectional variation in stock returns.","PeriodicalId":151026,"journal":{"name":"Singapore Management University Lee Kong Chian School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124092482","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ningzhong Li, Yun Lou, Clemens A. Otto, Regina Wittenberg-Moerman
We examine the relation between accounting quality and debt concentration in corporate capital structures (i.e., firms' tendency to rely predominantly on only a few types of debt). Motivated by theoretical and empirical research that supports a strong link between debt concentration and creditors' coordination costs and the importance of accounting quality in reducing these costs, we hypothesize that firms with higher accounting quality have less concentrated debt structures. Measuring accounting quality with a comprehensive index based on the occurrence of material internal control weaknesses, accounting restatements, SEC AAERs, and firms' reliance on small auditors, we find that higher accounting quality is indeed associated with less concentrated debt structures. This relation is stronger for firms with higher default risk, as the probability that creditors need to coordinate is higher, and for firms with lower liquidation values, as creditor coordination to avoid liquidation is more important. Data Availability: Data are available from the public sources cited in the text. JEL Classifications: M4; G32; G33.
{"title":"Accounting Quality and Debt Concentration","authors":"Ningzhong Li, Yun Lou, Clemens A. Otto, Regina Wittenberg-Moerman","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2532386","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2532386","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We examine the relation between accounting quality and debt concentration in corporate capital structures (i.e., firms' tendency to rely predominantly on only a few types of debt). Motivated by theoretical and empirical research that supports a strong link between debt concentration and creditors' coordination costs and the importance of accounting quality in reducing these costs, we hypothesize that firms with higher accounting quality have less concentrated debt structures. Measuring accounting quality with a comprehensive index based on the occurrence of material internal control weaknesses, accounting restatements, SEC AAERs, and firms' reliance on small auditors, we find that higher accounting quality is indeed associated with less concentrated debt structures. This relation is stronger for firms with higher default risk, as the probability that creditors need to coordinate is higher, and for firms with lower liquidation values, as creditor coordination to avoid liquidation is more important.\u0000 Data Availability: Data are available from the public sources cited in the text.\u0000 JEL Classifications: M4; G32; G33.","PeriodicalId":151026,"journal":{"name":"Singapore Management University Lee Kong Chian School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115174779","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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