Background
Accurate risk stratification is crucial for managing patients with coronary heart disease (CHD). This study aimed to investigate the value of baseline electrocardiogram (ECG) indicators in predicting one-year major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with CHD.
Methods
This single-center, retrospective cohort study enrolled 200 hospitalized patients with a confirmed CHD diagnosis. Baseline demographic, clinical, echocardiographic, and 12-lead ECG data were collected. The primary endpoint was the occurrence of MACE (a composite of cardiac death, non-fatal acute MI, severe arrhythmia, severe heart failure, and stroke) within one year. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent ECG predictors, with predictive performance evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.
Results
During a one-year follow-up, 29 of 200 patients (14.5%) experienced a MACE. Patients with MACE had significantly worse baseline cardiac function, including lower left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and higher E/e' ratio. In multivariable analysis, higher resting heart rate (OR per 10 bpm: 1.54, 95% CI: 1.09-2.17, P=0.014), longer QRS duration (OR per 10 ms: 1.69, 95% CI: 1.16-2.47, P=0.006), and longer corrected QT (QTc) interval (OR per 10 ms: 1.63, 95% CI: 1.23-2.15, P<0.001) were independent predictors of MACE. A combined model integrating these three parameters demonstrated excellent predictive accuracy (AUC=0.85, 95% CI: 0.78-0.92), superior to any single parameter. The QTc interval was the best single predictor (AUC=0.79).
Conclusion
Higher resting heart rate, longer QRS duration, and longer QTc interval are independent and powerful predictors of one-year MACE in patients with CHD. A combined model using these simple ECG markers provides robust risk stratification, offering significant incremental predictive value over baseline clinical factors.
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