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Integrated scheduling of production and distribution with two competing agents 集成调度生产和分销与两个竞争代理
4区 管理学 Q2 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2023-11-03 DOI: 10.1080/01605682.2023.2277867
Bayi Cheng, Junwei Gao, Mi Zhou, Wei Chu
AbstractThis paper studies a two-agent scheduling problem on a single batch machine. Each job j has a processing time pj and a size sj. Jobs should be delivered to the agent as soon as possible. The objective is to minimize the service span of the first agent subject to an upper bound on the makespan of the other agent. We propose two approximation algorithms when jobs have identical processing times and in the general case. Then we conduct theoretical analyses to provide the provable guarantees on the performances of the algorithms. Finally, we conduct simulation analyses based on randomly generated instances to evaluate the average performances of the algorithm in the general case.Keywords: Batch machinetwo competing agentsschedulingdeliveryapproximation algorithms Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Additional informationFundingThis work was partly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grants 72371093 and 72071056. This work is also partly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China 2019YFE0110300.
摘要研究了单批处理机器上的双智能体调度问题。每个作业j有一个处理时间pj和一个大小sj。作业应尽快交付给代理。目标是最小化第一个代理的服务跨度,使其受制于另一个代理的最大跨度的上界。我们提出了两种近似算法,当作业具有相同的处理时间和在一般情况下。然后进行理论分析,为算法的性能提供可证明的保证。最后,我们基于随机生成的实例进行仿真分析,以评估算法在一般情况下的平均性能。关键词:批处理机器两个竞争代理调度交付近似算法披露声明作者未报告潜在的利益冲突。本研究得到国家自然科学基金项目资助(72371093和72071056)。国家重点研发计划项目(20119yfe0110300)资助。
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引用次数: 0
A material balance approach for modelling banks’ production process with non-performing loans 不良贷款对银行生产过程建模的物质平衡方法
4区 管理学 Q2 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2023-10-31 DOI: 10.1080/01605682.2023.2273460
Hirofumi Fukuyama, Roman Matousek, Nickolaos G. Tzeremes
The aim of this to study is to examine how non-performing loans on the balance sheets of Japanese banks affect their performance by adopting a material balance principle. The paper outlines how the material balance conditions can be applied when modelling banks’ production process in the presence of non-performing loans. The paper utilizes the generalized weak G-disposability principle which accounts for the heterogeneity among banks’ input quality. We test how an input-oriented model (non-performing loans are treated as an input), the weak disposability assumption and the adopted material balance approach, affect banks’ performance levels. We apply our test on a sample of Japanese banks over the period 2013 to 2019. Our findings indicate that the input-oriented model and the material balance estimator even if they present similar distributions, they account differently the effect of non-performing loans’ fluctuations over the examined period. In addition, the results under the weak disposability assumption are found to be different compared to the material balance measures and less sensitive to banks’ non-performing loans variation levels. We also provide evidence that the generalized weak G-disposability assumption captures better banks’ performance fluctuations that has been caused by the restructuring of the Japanese banking industry.
本研究的目的是通过采用物质平衡原则来考察日本银行资产负债表上的不良贷款对其业绩的影响。本文概述了在对存在不良贷款的银行生产过程进行建模时如何应用物质平衡条件。本文利用广义弱g -可处置性原理来解释银行投入质量的异质性。我们检验了以投入为导向的模型(将不良贷款视为投入)、弱可处置性假设和采用的物质平衡方法如何影响银行的绩效水平。我们对2013年至2019年期间的日本银行样本进行了测试。我们的研究结果表明,即使投入导向模型和物质平衡估计器呈现相似的分布,它们也不同地解释了不良贷款在研究期间波动的影响。此外,发现弱处置假设下的结果与物质平衡措施不同,对银行不良贷款变化水平的敏感性较低。我们还提供证据表明,广义弱g处置能力假设反映了日本银行业重组造成的较好的银行业绩波动。
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引用次数: 0
The interaction between manufacturer-encroachment and information sharing in a closed-loop supply chain under technology licensing 技术许可下闭环供应链中制造商侵占与信息共享的互动关系
4区 管理学 Q2 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2023-10-26 DOI: 10.1080/01605682.2023.2274950
Yanting Huang, Zongjun Wang
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引用次数: 0
An efficient simulation optimization method for the redundancy allocation problem with a chance constraint 具有机会约束的冗余分配问题的一种高效仿真优化方法
4区 管理学 Q2 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2023-10-23 DOI: 10.1080/01605682.2023.2272860
Kuo-Hao Chang, Chi-Ping Lin
AbstractWe explore the Redundancy Allocation Problem (RAP) under the objective of minimizing the cost of a production system of general topology in which system reliability is treated as a chance constraint. A novel simulation optimization-based solution method grounded in the concepts of the trust region and response surface methodology is proposed to efficiently solve the generalized RAP (GRAP) under random system survival times. The generalizability of the RAP model and efficiency of the solution method allows for our approach to be utilized in a wide variety of real-world applications. We demonstrate in a series of numerical experiments based on production systems of varying complexity that the finite convergence of the proposed method is much more efficient than the commonly-used genetic algorithm. It is shown that on a simple bridge network, only the proposed algorithm can find the true optimal solution to the GRAP under an allotted computational budget. On a complex network which includes series, parallel, and logical relationships, the proposed algorithm is also shown to find solutions to the GRAP which have substantially lower total system cost than those found by GA under a wide variety of scenarios.Keywords: Reliabilityredundancy allocation problemsimulation optimizationchance constraint AcknowledgementThis work was financially supported by National Science and Technology Council (Taiwan) and the “High Entropy Materials Center” from The Featured Areas Research Center Program within the framework of the Higher Education Sprout Project by the Ministry of Education (MOE) in Taiwan.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.Additional informationFundingThis work was financially supported by National Science and Technology Council (Taiwan) and the “High Entropy Materials Center” from The Featured Areas Research Center Program within the framework of the Higher Education Sprout Project by the Ministry of Education (MOE) in Taiwan.
摘要以一般拓扑下的生产系统成本最小为目标,将系统可靠性作为一个机会约束,研究了冗余分配问题。基于信任域和响应面方法的概念,提出了一种基于仿真优化的求解随机系统生存时间下广义RAP (GRAP)问题的新方法。RAP模型的通用性和解决方案方法的效率使得我们的方法可以在各种实际应用程序中使用。通过一系列基于不同复杂性生产系统的数值实验证明,该方法的有限收敛性比常用的遗传算法要有效得多。结果表明,在一个简单的桥梁网络中,只有本文提出的算法能够在给定的计算预算下找到GRAP的真正最优解。在包含串联、并行和逻辑关系的复杂网络上,所提出的算法也被证明可以在各种场景下找到比遗传算法所发现的总系统成本低得多的GRAP解。本工作由国家科学技术委员会(台湾)和“高熵材料中心”资助,该研究中心来自台湾教育部高等教育萌芽计划框架下的特色区域研究中心计划。披露声明作者未报告潜在的利益冲突。本研究由国家科学技术委员会(台湾)和台湾教育部高等教育萌芽计划框架下特色地区研究中心计划中的“高熵材料中心”提供资金支持。
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引用次数: 0
Information disclosure and pricing in the online expert service platform 在线专家服务平台的信息披露与定价
4区 管理学 Q2 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2023-10-19 DOI: 10.1080/01605682.2023.2269212
Shaofu Du, Xuefeng Peng, Tengfei Nie, Yangguang Zhu
AbstractThe online expert service (OES) market is thriving by providing convenient professional services such as telemedicine consultation, legal advice, and financial planning. However, the practical phenomena, namely information asymmetry and the existence of naive consumers in the OES industry, motivate us to investigate how consumers’ two-dimensional heterogeneity and the expert’s agency pricing strategy with effort costs affect the OES platform’s information disclosure decision and corresponding market outcomes. By building a game-theoretic model, we consider the monopolistic OES platform in which the expert provides service to a mass of consumers, who can be either sophisticated or naive. The platform, as the designer of the disclosure framework, is thus an additional player in the seller-consumer game. Our results show that, when the marginal cost is intermediate, the platform strategically manipulates consumers’ valuation beliefs with partial disclosure to increase profitability without significant loss of market coverage. Furthermore, when naive consumers exist, the platform counter-intuitively discloses more information compared to that of all sophisticated consumers. Moreover, interestingly, when the marginal cost is low-to-intermediate, more naive consumers bring about more disclosure and thus obtain more demand for high-end sophisticated consumers, making both the expert and platform better off.Keywords: Online expert serviceplatforminformation disclosureagency pricinggame theory NotesDisclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.Notes1 For expositional ease, we will refer to a consumer as “he,” the expert as “she” and the OES platform as “it.”2 Statista. Telemedicine market size worldwide 2019-2030, please see https://www.statista.com/statistics/671374/global-telemedicine-market-size/.3 This assumption reflects the reality of fairly stable commission rates charged by the marketplace platforms in the OES industry today. For example, www.chunyuyisheng.com declares that a constant 20% of the platform service fee will be deducted when each expert consultation is settled since 2019.4 For ease of exposition, we refer to 1−2c and 1−λ2 as λ0 and c0, respectively.Additional informationFundingThis research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 72071193, 72293582, 71971201, 72188101, 72271078), the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No. KY2040000049). The research was also supported by National Social Science Fund of China (No. 21&ZD129) and Taishan Scholars Program of Shandong Province (No. tsqn202103024). The authors also thank the Qilu Young Scholars of Shandong University for financial support. Xuefeng Peng acknowledges the support from the China Scholarship Council.
摘要在线专家服务(OES)市场通过提供远程医疗咨询、法律咨询、财务规划等便捷的专业服务而蓬勃发展。然而,OES行业中信息不对称和幼稚消费者的存在这一现实现象,促使我们研究消费者的二维异质性和专家的代理定价策略对OES平台信息披露决策和相应的市场结果的影响。通过建立博弈论模型,我们考虑了一个垄断性的OES平台,在这个平台中,专家向大量的消费者提供服务,这些消费者可能是成熟的,也可能是幼稚的。因此,作为披露框架的设计者,该平台是卖家-消费者博弈中的一个额外参与者。我们的研究结果表明,当边际成本处于中间水平时,平台策略性地操纵消费者的估值信念,在不显著损失市场覆盖率的情况下增加盈利能力。此外,当天真的消费者存在时,与所有成熟的消费者相比,平台反直觉地披露了更多的信息。此外,有趣的是,当边际成本处于中低水平时,更多的天真消费者带来更多的信息披露,从而获得更多高端成熟消费者的需求,专家和平台都受益。关键词:网络专家服务平台信息披露机构定价博弈论注披露声明作者未发现潜在利益冲突。注1为了便于说明,我们将消费者称为“他”,专家称为“她”,OES平台称为“它”。“2 Statista。全球远程医疗市场规模2019-2030,请参见https://www.statista.com/statistics/671374/global-telemedicine-market-size/.3这一假设反映了目前OES行业中市场平台收取相当稳定的佣金率的现实。例如,www.chunyuyisheng.com声明,自2019年起,每次专家咨询结算时,将扣除平台服务费的20%。4为了便于说明,我们将1−2c和1−λ2分别称为λ0和c0。基金资助:国家自然科学基金(批准号:72071193、72293582、71971201、72188101、72271078);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(批准号:72071193);KY2040000049)。国家社科基金(No. 21&ZD129)和山东省泰山学者计划(No. 21&ZD129)资助;tsqn202103024)。作者也感谢山东大学齐鲁青年学者资助。彭雪峰感谢中国国家留学基金委的支持。
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引用次数: 0
On difference between direct-response method and strategy method in decision-making: behavioural and neural evidence in a reward-punishment game 决策中直接反应法与策略法的差异:奖罚博弈中的行为与神经证据
4区 管理学 Q2 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2023-10-19 DOI: 10.1080/01605682.2023.2269984
Luyao Li, Xiaobo Zhao, Dong Xie, Xue Xiao
AbstractDecision-makers may follow either the direct-response method or strategy method. While the two elicitation methods are theoretically equivalent, it is uncertain whether they lead to the same outcomes in practice. To explore this issue, we conduct an experiment based on a reward-punishment game under both methods, in which functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is used to provide neural evidence for uncovering the underlying behavioural mechanisms. The results show that both the reward and punishment rates are significantly higher under the strategy method compared to the direct-response method. We develop behavioural models to explain these differences and identify the ownership effect, strategic thinking, and counterfactual thinking as potential drivers. Comparison of neural activity between the two treatments demonstrates that during reward/no-reward decisions, the direct-response treatment accrues stronger activation in the bilateral anterior insula, indicating that decision-makers overweigh reward cost due to ownership effect, which consequently leads to reduced willingness to impose rewards. Conversely, during punishment/no-punishment decisions, the strategy treatment causes stronger activations in the bilateral anterior insula and inferior parietal lobule, implying that decision-makers perceive strong unfairness due to counterfactual thinking, which further results in more punishment decisions. Moreover, our findings reveal that strategic thinking influences decision-making during long-term interactions.Keywords: Behavioural ORelicitation methodreward-punishment gamefMRIcounterfactual thinkingownership effect AcknowledgementsThe authors thank the CBIR (Center for Biomedical Imaging Research) of Tsinghua University for technical support.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.Notes1 No statistical procedures were used to predetermine the sample size, but our sample size for one treatment is not smaller than similar fMRI experiments in previous publications (Grecucci et al., Citation2013; Sanfey et al., Citation2003; Zhao et al., Citation2016).2 We conduct regression analyses of the senders’ and receivers’ decisions in the direct-response and strategy treatments, respectively. The coefficients of time trend are insignificant at the level of p = 0.05.Additional informationFundingThis research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under grant 72271136.
摘要决策者可以采用直接反应法或策略法。虽然这两种启发方法在理论上是等效的,但在实践中它们是否会导致相同的结果是不确定的。为了探讨这一问题,我们在两种方法下进行了基于奖惩游戏的实验,其中使用功能磁共振成像(fMRI)为揭示潜在的行为机制提供神经证据。结果表明,策略法的奖惩率均显著高于直接反应法。我们开发了行为模型来解释这些差异,并确定所有权效应、战略思维和反事实思维是潜在的驱动因素。两种处理的神经活动比较表明,在奖励/无奖励决策过程中,直接反应处理在双侧前叶产生更强的激活,表明决策者由于所有权效应而过度考虑奖励成本,从而导致施加奖励的意愿降低。相反,在惩罚/不惩罚决策过程中,策略处理导致双侧前叶和顶叶下小叶的激活更强,这意味着决策者由于反事实思维而感知到强烈的不公平,从而导致更多的惩罚决策。此外,我们的研究结果表明,战略思维在长期互动中影响决策。关键词:行为启蒙方法惩罚博弈核磁共振反事实思维伙伴效应致谢感谢清华大学生物医学成像研究中心的技术支持。披露声明作者未报告潜在的利益冲突。注1没有使用统计程序来预先确定样本量,但我们的一个治疗的样本量并不小于先前出版物中类似的fMRI实验(greucci et al., Citation2013;Sanfey et al., Citation2003;赵等,Citation2016)我们分别对发送者和接收者在直接反应和策略处理中的决策进行了回归分析。时间趋势系数在p = 0.05水平下不显著。本研究由国家自然科学基金资助,资助项目:72271136。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal financing strategies for a risk-averse supplier under the CVaR criterion in a capital-constrained supply chain 资本约束供应链中CVaR准则下风险规避供应商的最优融资策略
4区 管理学 Q2 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2023-10-16 DOI: 10.1080/01605682.2023.2269192
Boshi Tian, Yuanxin Lu, Liangwei Yu, Xiaoxing Chang
AbstractWe focus on analyzing the risk preferences of suppliers regarding two types of financing: partial credit guarantee (PCG) and trade credit financing (TCF). Using the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) criterion, we study each supply chain member’s equilibrium solution and optimal financing strategy under the assumption of demand distributions with an increasing failure rate. Initially, we present an analytical solution of the risk-averse supplier’s wholesale price, and prove that the optimal wholesale price decreases in the risk-averse level and initial capital, and increases in the credit guarantee ratio. Furthermore, we derive optimal financing strategies for both the supplier and the retailer under various circumstances. However, it is important to note that the results reveal a potential trade-off associated with PCG. While risk-averse suppliers may be more inclined to provide PCG compared to risk-neutral suppliers, this financing option can negatively impact the supplier’s utility and the expected profits of the retailers. Finally, we illustrate how the optimal financing strategies shift in response to changes in the risk-averse level and credit guarantee ratio, and present the win-win situations for the supplier and the retailer.Keywords: Supply chain managementrisk-averse attitudepartial credit guaranteetrade credit Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.Notes1 https://www.leiphone.com/category/industrynews/PHJfNRQtmboIM9cE.html2 http://finance.ce.cn/rolling/201705/19/t20170519_22993865.shtmlAdditional informationFundingThis work was supported by the National Social Science Foundation of China (Grant no. 21BGL125), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant no. 11601142), the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province (Grant no. 2021JJ40136).
摘要本文重点分析了供应商对部分信用担保(PCG)和贸易信用融资(TCF)两种融资方式的风险偏好。利用条件风险价值(CVaR)准则,研究了在需求分布随失败率增加的情况下,供应链各成员的均衡解和最优融资策略。首先,给出了风险厌恶型供应商批发价格的解析解,并证明了最优批发价格的风险厌恶水平和初始资本降低,信用担保比率增加。在此基础上,推导出了供应商和零售商在不同情况下的最优融资策略。然而,值得注意的是,结果揭示了与PCG相关的潜在权衡。与风险中性供应商相比,风险厌恶型供应商可能更倾向于提供PCG,但这种融资选择会对供应商的效用和零售商的预期利润产生负面影响。最后,我们说明了最优融资策略是如何随着风险规避水平和信用担保比率的变化而变化的,并给出了供应商和零售商的双赢局面。关键词:供应链管理企业风险规避态度部分信用保证贸易信用披露声明作者未发现潜在利益冲突注1 https://www.leiphone.com/category/industrynews/PHJfNRQtmboIM9cE.html2 http://finance.ce.cn/rolling/201705/19/t20170519_22993865.shtmlAdditional信息基金资助:国家社会科学基金项目(批准号:no. 1);基金资助:21BGL125),国家自然科学基金项目(批准号:21BGL125);湖南省自然科学基金项目(批准号:116001142);2021 jj40136)。
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引用次数: 0
A multi-criteria group decision-making method with fuzzy preference relations based on filtration-and-weighting-based triangular bounded consistency 基于过滤加权三角有界一致性的模糊偏好关系多准则群体决策方法
4区 管理学 Q2 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2023-10-13 DOI: 10.1080/01605682.2023.2266449
Wenjun Chang, Chao Fu
AbstractIn multi-criteria group decision-making (MCGDM) problems with incomplete fuzzy preference relations (FPRs), the consistency based on bounded rationality is preferred to depend on the historical preferences of decision makers to generate complete FPR matrices. There are two factors in influencing the effect of historical preferences on complete FPR matrices and further decision makers’ satisfaction of group solutions. One is the effectiveness of historical preferences and the other is their relative weights. On this basis, this paper proposes a new MCGDM method with FPRs based on the filtration-and-weighting-based triangular bounded consistency (FWBTBC), where historical FPRs between three adjacent pairs of alternatives are characterized by triangles and these two factors are considered comprehensively. A triangle filtration process is designed based on the Grubbs criterion to filter the abnormal triangles in the collected ones. A weight determination process is developed, where a distance measure between remaining triangles is constructed to calculate their weights. Based on the combination of the two processes, the FWBTBC of FPRs is created and then the proposed method is presented. The validity of the proposed method is demonstrated by its application in analyzing a drainage tube supplier selection problem for a tertiary hospital located in Hefei, Anhui, China.Keywords: Multi-criteria group decision-makingtriangle filtrationweight determinationfiltration-and-weighting-based triangular bounded consistencydrainage tube supplier selection Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.Additional informationFundingThis research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 72101074 and 72171066) and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No. JZ2023HGTB0275).
摘要针对不完全模糊偏好关系(FPR)的多准则群体决策问题,采用基于有限理性的一致性来依赖决策者的历史偏好来生成完全模糊偏好关系矩阵。历史偏好对完整FPR矩阵的影响和决策者对群体解决方案的进一步满意度有两个影响因素。一个是历史偏好的有效性,另一个是它们的相对权重。在此基础上,本文提出了一种基于滤波加权的三角形有界一致性(FWBTBC)的fpr MCGDM方法,该方法将相邻三对备选方案之间的历史fpr用三角形表示,并综合考虑了这两个因素。设计了一种基于Grubbs准则的三角形过滤流程,对采集到的异常三角形进行过滤。开发了一个权重确定过程,其中构建了剩余三角形之间的距离度量来计算它们的权重。基于这两个过程的结合,建立了FPRs的FWBTBC,并在此基础上提出了该方法。通过对安徽省合肥市某三级医院引流管供应商选择问题的分析,验证了该方法的有效性。关键词:多准则群体决策三角过滤权重确定基于过滤加权的三角边界一致性引流管供应商选择披露声明作者未报告潜在利益冲突。本研究得到国家自然科学基金(批准号:72101074和72171066)和中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(批准号:72101074和72171066)的资助。JZ2023HGTB0275)。
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引用次数: 0
Playing the new devil’s advocate role in facilitated modelling processes to address group homogeneity 在促进建模过程中扮演新的魔鬼代言人的角色,以解决群体同质性问题
4区 管理学 Q2 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2023-10-10 DOI: 10.1080/01605682.2023.2263101
Giovanni Cunico, Nici Zimmermann, Nuno Videira
To address complex issues, facilitated modelling aims to represent and accommodate plural worldviews from many stakeholders and experts. In these contexts, group homogeneity can become problematic when participants’ plurality of perspectives and information is missing and people attending facilitated sessions have similar problem perceptions and interests. This is a challenge because it can lead to narrow discussion, groupthink and undermine output quality. Despite not being uncommon, effective approaches to deal with homogeneity are hardly reported. This paper presents a new role—the New Devil’s Advocate—in which some facilitators leave their neutrality-oriented stance and act as the missing stakeholders. The paper illustrates a first application to a group model building process aimed at supporting the development of energy efficiency policies in the UK. To evaluate the results, workshop transcripts were coded, participants’ and facilitators’ feedback collected, and the modelling output assessed with respect to the New Devil’s Advocate interventions during the workshop. Although the role performance appears to increase facilitators’ workload and be influenced by role performers’ personality and background, the analysis shows positive results as a promising practice to address homogeneity. Additionally, it offers a practical experience of how facilitation teams may temporarily abandon neutrality and intervene on content.
为了解决复杂的问题,便利建模旨在代表和容纳来自许多利益相关者和专家的多种世界观。在这种情况下,当参与者的观点和信息的多样性缺失,以及参加促进会议的人有相似的问题认知和兴趣时,群体同质性就会成为问题。这是一个挑战,因为它可能导致狭隘的讨论、群体思维和影响产出质量。尽管并非罕见,但处理同质性的有效方法几乎没有报道。本文提出了一种新的角色——新魔鬼使者——在这种角色中,一些促进者放弃了中立的立场,充当了缺失的利益相关者。本文说明了第一个应用程序,以组模型建设过程,旨在支持能源效率政策的发展在英国。为了评估结果,对研讨会记录进行了编码,收集了参与者和主持人的反馈,并对研讨会期间新魔鬼代言人干预措施的建模输出进行了评估。虽然角色绩效似乎增加了调解员的工作量,并受到角色表演者个性和背景的影响,但分析结果表明,这是解决同质性问题的一个有希望的实践。此外,它还提供了促进团队如何暂时放弃中立性并干预内容的实践经验。
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引用次数: 0
From data to action: Empowering COVID-19 monitoring and forecasting with intelligent algorithms 从数据到行动:利用智能算法增强COVID-19监测和预测能力
4区 管理学 Q2 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2023-09-30 DOI: 10.1080/01605682.2023.2240354
Vincent Charles, Seyed Muhammad Hossein Mousavi, Tatiana Gherman, S. Muhammad Hassan Mosavi
The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly impacted every aspect of our lives, from economic to the social facets of contemporary society. While the new COVID-19 waves may not be anticipated to be as severe as previous ones, it would be unreasonable to assume that they will cease any time soon. Consequently, forecasting the number of future infections, recovered patients, and death cases remains a very much logical step in trying to fight against further waves, in conjunction with ongoing vaccination efforts. In this paper, we investigate the efficiency of three intelligent machine learning algorithms, namely GMDH, Bi-LSTM, and GA + NN, for COVID-19 forecasting, with an application to Iran and the United Kingdom. The experimental results show that the algorithms can be used to forecast the next six months of COVID-19 in terms of confirmed, recovered, and death cases, which gives a more ample timeframe for using the results to make better practical yet strategic decisions and take appropriate actions or measures to deploy resources effectively to contain or curb the spread of the coronavirus. Despite the distinct dynamics observed in the data, our analysis proves the robustness of the employed models.
2019冠状病毒病大流行深刻影响了我们生活的方方面面,从经济到当代社会的各个方面。虽然预计新的COVID-19浪潮可能不会像以前那样严重,但认为它们会很快停止是不合理的。因此,结合正在进行的疫苗接种工作,预测未来感染、康复患者和死亡病例的数量仍然是努力抗击进一步疫情浪潮的一个非常合乎逻辑的步骤。本文以伊朗和英国为例,研究了GMDH、Bi-LSTM和GA + NN三种智能机器学习算法在COVID-19预测中的效率。实验结果表明,该算法可用于预测未来6个月的新冠肺炎确诊病例、康复病例和死亡病例,为利用该结果做出更好的实用且具有战略意义的决策,并采取适当的行动或措施,有效部署资源,遏制或遏制新冠肺炎的传播提供了更充足的时间框架。尽管在数据中观察到明显的动态,但我们的分析证明了所采用模型的鲁棒性。
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Journal of the Operational Research Society
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