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Development and validation of a multi-variable prediction model for major postoperative complications after lung resection in patients aged ≥70 years with non-small-cell lung cancer. ≥70岁非小细胞肺癌患者肺切除术后主要术后并发症多变量预测模型的建立与验证
IF 1.9 3区 医学 Q3 RESPIRATORY SYSTEM Pub Date : 2025-12-31 Epub Date: 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.21037/jtd-2025-1636
Xiang Li, Dongze Chen, Shi Yan, Yuzhao Wang, Yaqi Wang, Ye Tao, Xinrun Cui, Bing Liu, Zhonghu He, Nan Wu

Background: Lung cancer predominantly affects elderly patients, in whom curative thoracic surgery is often complicated by potentially fatal postoperative complications. This study aimed to identify preoperative risk factors and develop a prediction model for major postoperative complications (MPCs) to better select elderly patients for lung cancer surgery.

Methods: We retrospectively reviewed medical records of elderly lung cancer patients treated surgically at Peking University Cancer Hospital from 1995 to 2019. Postoperative MPC occurring within 30 days was rigorously documented and defined according to the Clavien-Dindo grading system. Independent preoperative risk factors of MPC were determined using multivariable logistic regression. Candidate predictors were selected through a two-stage process combining logistic regression with minimization of the Akaike information criterion. Model performance was validated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC), calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA). The model was internally validated using bootstrapping method. A nomogram was also constructed. Additional risk stratification and sensitivity analyses were performed to validate the effectiveness and reliability of the model.

Results: Among 989 patients enrolled, 6.67% experienced MPC. After adjustment in the multivariable logistic regression analysis, thoracotomy emerged as the strongest independent risk factor for MPC [odds ratio (OR) =4.84, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.53-9.27]. The prediction model incorporating nine preoperative variables achieved an AUC of 0.815 (95% CI: 0.759-0.871). The final model demonstrated robust discrimination after internal validation (bootstrapped AUC =0.779, 95% CI: 0.723-0.836), and DCA confirmed its clinical utility. Risk stratification analysis revealed a 10.5-fold increase in the incidence of MPC among patients classified as high-risk compared with those at low-risk. Finally, an easy-to-use online tool was developed to potentially assist physicians in the clinic.

Conclusions: Thoracotomy significantly increased the risk of MPC. This newly developed model provides valuable support for surgical decision-making and facilitates tailored perioperative care strategies for elderly lung cancer patients.

背景:肺癌主要影响老年患者,其根治性胸外科手术常伴有潜在的致命术后并发症。本研究旨在识别术前危险因素,建立主要术后并发症(MPCs)预测模型,以更好地选择老年肺癌手术患者。方法:回顾性分析1995年至2019年北京大学肿瘤医院手术治疗的老年肺癌患者的病历。术后30天内发生的MPC严格记录并根据Clavien-Dindo分级系统进行定义。采用多变量logistic回归确定MPC术前独立危险因素。通过逻辑回归与赤池信息准则最小化相结合的两阶段过程选择候选预测因子。利用受试者工作特征曲线(AUC)下的面积、校准图和决策曲线分析(DCA)验证模型的性能。采用自举法对模型进行内部验证。并构造了nomogram。进行额外的风险分层和敏感性分析以验证模型的有效性和可靠性。结果:989例入组患者中,有6.67%经历了MPC。经多变量logistic回归分析调整后,开胸成为MPC最强的独立危险因素[比值比(OR) =4.84, 95%可信区间(CI): 2.53-9.27]。纳入9个术前变量的预测模型AUC为0.815 (95% CI: 0.759-0.871)。最终模型在内部验证后表现出稳健的辨别能力(bootstrap AUC =0.779, 95% CI: 0.723-0.836), DCA证实了其临床实用性。风险分层分析显示,与低风险患者相比,高危患者的MPC发病率增加10.5倍。最后,开发了一个易于使用的在线工具,以潜在地帮助临床医生。结论:开胸明显增加MPC的发生风险。这个新开发的模型为老年肺癌患者的手术决策提供了有价值的支持,并促进了量身定制的围手术期护理策略。
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引用次数: 0
3-dimensional reconstruction and mixed reality in thoracic surgery: a narrative review and user guide. 胸外科手术中的三维重建和混合现实:叙述回顾和使用指南。
IF 1.9 3区 医学 Q3 RESPIRATORY SYSTEM Pub Date : 2025-12-31 Epub Date: 2025-12-25 DOI: 10.21037/jtd-2025-1779
Alexander Pohlman, Jericho Hallare, Matthew A Facktor, Zaid M Abdelsattar

Background and objective: 3-dimensional (3D) reconstruction techniques, including physical forms such as 3D printing, and virtual forms such as virtual and augmented reality (VR/AR), are gaining popularity. Multiple platforms have received regulatory approval and many more are being developed for use in thoracic surgery. However, uptake of these technologies has been slow, likely owing to poor understanding, unclear guidance on implementation, and associated costs. In this context, we aim to provide a review of the existing literature on 3D reconstruction in thoracic surgery, while also forming a guide for thoracic surgeons.

Methods: We searched PubMed using MeSH term "thoracic surgery" combined individually with "augmented reality", "virtual reality", and "3D reconstruction". We limited the search to the last 15 years [2010-2025] with results totaling 287 publications. We identified the highest impact articles involving each of these technologies. We also searched the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) website and identified 510k-approved VR and AR technologies with the potential for use in thoracic surgery.

Key content and findings: We broke up our findings into four main sections: (I) how these models are created; (II) indications for use in thoracic surgery; (III) models that are currently available; and (IV) surgeons' perceptions and limitations. These models are typically built from traditional imaging, such as computed tomography scans, segmented into individual structures either manually or via artificial intelligence, and then placed into a file compatible with either projection on VR/AR headsets or a 3D printer. These models can then be used in a variety of ways in thoracic surgery, such as training, pre-operative planning, intra-operative guidance, or creation of 3D-printed prostheses. Currently, the primary limitations are varying accuracy of models, available evidence for use, uptake by surgeons, and cost of the technology.

Conclusions: 3D reconstruction and mixed reality platforms are an important development with many uses within thoracic surgery. Further study into their development, use, and safety will be vital in the coming years. Surgeons should understand these uses and limitations prior to implementation into practice.

背景和目的:三维(3D)重建技术,包括物理形式(如3D打印)和虚拟形式(如虚拟现实和增强现实(VR/AR)),越来越受欢迎。多个平台已经获得监管部门的批准,还有更多的平台正在开发中,用于胸外科手术。然而,这些技术的采用进展缓慢,可能是由于缺乏理解、实施指导不明确以及相关成本。在此背景下,我们的目的是对胸外科三维重建的现有文献进行综述,同时也为胸外科医生提供指导。方法:我们在PubMed中使用MeSH术语“胸外科”分别与“增强现实”、“虚拟现实”和“三维重建”相结合进行检索。我们将搜索限制在过去15年[2010-2025],结果共计287篇出版物。我们确定了涉及这些技术的影响最大的文章。我们还检索了美国食品和药物管理局(FDA)的网站,并确定了510k批准的VR和AR技术在胸外科手术中的应用潜力。主要内容和发现:我们将发现分为四个主要部分:(1)如何创建这些模型;(二)胸外科适应症;(三)目前可用的型号;(四)外科医生的认知和局限性。这些模型通常是由传统成像(如计算机断层扫描)构建而成,通过手动或人工智能分割成单个结构,然后放入与VR/AR头戴式耳机或3D打印机投影兼容的文件中。然后,这些模型可以在胸外科手术中以各种方式使用,例如培训,术前计划,术中指导或3d打印假体的创建。目前,主要的限制是模型的准确性、可用的使用证据、外科医生的接受以及技术的成本。结论:三维重建和混合现实平台在胸外科手术中有许多重要的应用。未来几年,对它们的开发、使用和安全性的进一步研究将至关重要。外科医生在实施前应了解这些方法的用途和局限性。
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引用次数: 0
Minimally invasive vs. trans-sternal thymectomy for non-thymomatous myasthenia gravis: a multi-institutional longitudinal study examining neurologic outcomes. 微创与经胸骨胸腺切除术治疗非胸腺瘤性重症肌无力:一项检查神经系统预后的多机构纵向研究。
IF 1.9 3区 医学 Q3 RESPIRATORY SYSTEM Pub Date : 2025-12-31 Epub Date: 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.21037/jtd-24-423
Jared P Beller, Linda W Martin, Ryan Hall, Peter Tatum, Joseph D Phillips, Kayla A Fay, Rachel Williams, Joshua Boys, Betul Gundogdu, Matthew Elliot, J Hunter Mehaffey, Dustin M Walters

Background: Trans-sternal thymectomy has been shown to be an effective treatment for select patients with non-thymomatous myasthenia gravis (MG). The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether similar neuromuscular benefits are achieved when utilizing minimally invasive surgical approaches to thymectomy, as compared to a trans-sternal approach, in patients with non-thymomatous MG.

Methods: Pooled data for all patients undergoing thymectomy from 2012 to 2020 for non-thymomatous MG from four institutions were retrospectively reviewed. Patients were stratified by surgical approach, minimally invasive [robotic or video-assisted thoracoscopic (VATS) vs. trans-sternal]. Clinical neurologic follow-up was ascertained from the medical record by a neurologist at 3-month intervals, for 2 years postoperatively.

Results: A total of 54 patients were included with 54% (n=29) undergoing minimally invasive thymectomy (MIT) and 46% (n=25) undergoing a trans-sternal approach. There were no differences in baseline disease severity measured by proportion requiring intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG), quantitative myasthenia scores, or daily prednisone dose. Similarly, there were no significant differences in major comorbidities. There was one conversion to a sternotomy for innominate vein bleeding. Perioperative complications were uncommon and largely similar between groups. Patients undergoing minimally invasive surgery had decreased length of hospital stay (2.5 vs. 5 days, P<0.01). There were no differences observed in prednisone dose or quantitative myasthenia scores during the 2-year follow-up period.

Conclusions: Our study confirms the results of the landmark MGTX (Randomized Trial of Thymectomy in Myasthenia Gravis) trial in a real-world multicenter experience. Similar outcomes were achieved regardless of surgical approach. These data support thymectomy for MG either by a minimally invasive or trans-sternal approach. This is the first study to compare disease-specific, rather than perioperative, outcomes of thymectomy via sternotomy vs. minimally invasive approach.

背景:经胸骨胸腺切除术已被证明是治疗非胸腺瘤性重症肌无力(MG)的有效方法。本研究的目的是评估在非胸腺瘤性MG患者中,与经胸骨入路相比,采用微创胸腺手术入路是否能获得类似的神经肌肉益处。方法:回顾性分析4家机构2012年至2020年所有接受胸腺切除术的非胸腺瘤性MG患者的汇总数据。患者按手术入路、微创[机器人或视频辅助胸腔镜(VATS) vs.经胸骨]进行分层。临床神经病学随访由神经科医生从病历中确定,每隔3个月,术后2年。结果:共纳入54例患者,其中54% (n=29)行微创胸腺切除术,46% (n=25)行经胸骨入路。通过静脉注射免疫球蛋白(IVIG)、定量肌无力评分或每日强的松剂量的比例来衡量的基线疾病严重程度没有差异。同样,在主要合并症方面也没有显著差异。有一例因无名静脉出血而改用胸骨切开术。围手术期并发症不常见,两组间基本相似。接受微创手术的患者住院时间缩短(2.5天vs. 5天)。结论:我们的研究证实了具有里程碑意义的MGTX(重症肌无力胸腺切除术随机试验)试验在真实世界的多中心经验中的结果。无论采用何种手术入路,均可获得相似的结果。这些数据支持胸腺切除术治疗MG的微创或经胸骨入路。这是第一个比较胸骨切开术胸腺切除术与微创入路胸腺切除术的疾病特异性(而非围手术期)结果的研究。
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引用次数: 0
Risk factors for prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV) post-coronary bypass surgery. 冠状动脉搭桥术后延长机械通气(PMV)的危险因素
IF 1.9 3区 医学 Q3 RESPIRATORY SYSTEM Pub Date : 2025-12-31 Epub Date: 2025-12-17 DOI: 10.21037/jtd-2025-1191
Stephan Möller, Sophia Cole, Anna Möller, Jan Adriaan Graw

Background: Postoperative intensive care plays a crucial role in the perioperative management of coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. It is well established that patients requiring prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV) have an increased risk of developing multiple secondary complications such as ventilator-associated pneumonia accounting for the increase of overall morbidity and mortality. The primary focus of our investigation was to identify new risk factors associated with PMV following CABG surgery.

Methods: All patients who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass surgery and were treated in an interdisciplinary surgical intensive care unit (ISICU) of a tertiary University Medical Center in 2023 were included in this retrospective observational study.

Results: A total of 339 patients were included in the study. Among the 280 patients who were successfully extubated within 24 hours after surgery (82.6%), the median ventilation time was 15 hours. In contrast, in the PMV group, the median ventilation time was 48.5 hours. Explorative statistical analysis showed significant differences between the two groups for duration of ventilation, ischemia time, time on cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB), duration of surgery, intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay, hospital length of stay, postoperative drainage loss within 12 and 24 hours after surgery, as well as the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE). In-hospital mortality was greater in patients with PMV compared to patients without PMV (10.2% vs. 0.0%, P<0.001). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed longer time on CPB [odds ratio (OR) =1.01, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1-1.02], a lactate peak within the first 24 hours (OR =1.35, 95% CI: 1.2-1.53), and a higher preoperative EuroSCORE (OR =1.23, 95% CI: 1.05-1.45) as significant independent association for the development of PMV.

Conclusions: Comprehensive understanding of the factors that increase the risk of PMV and a precise characterization of patients prone to PMV are considered essential for the management by the attending intensivist. Early identification of risk factors enables the implementation of targeted interventions, which may optimize intensive care management and ultimately contribute to improved patient outcomes.

背景:术后重症监护在冠状动脉旁路移植术(CABG)围手术期管理中起着至关重要的作用。需要长时间机械通气(PMV)的患者发生多种继发性并发症(如呼吸机相关性肺炎)的风险增加,这是导致总体发病率和死亡率增加的原因。我们研究的主要焦点是确定与冠脉搭桥术后PMV相关的新危险因素。方法:回顾性观察研究纳入了所有于2023年在某三级大学医学中心跨学科外科重症监护病房(ISICU)接受孤立冠状动脉搭桥手术治疗的患者。结果:共纳入339例患者。术后24小时内成功拔管的280例患者(82.6%)中,中位通气时间为15小时。相比之下,PMV组中位通气时间为48.5小时。探索性统计分析显示,两组患者通气时间、缺血时间、体外循环时间(CPB)、手术时间、重症监护病房(ICU)住院时间、住院时间、术后12小时和24小时内引流损失以及欧洲心脏手术风险评估系统(EuroSCORE)差异均有统计学意义。与没有PMV的患者相比,有PMV的患者住院死亡率更高(10.2% vs. 0.0%)。结论:全面了解增加PMV风险的因素和准确描述易患PMV的患者被认为是主治医师管理PMV的关键。早期识别风险因素有助于实施有针对性的干预措施,这可能会优化重症监护管理,并最终有助于改善患者的预后。
{"title":"Risk factors for prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV) post-coronary bypass surgery.","authors":"Stephan Möller, Sophia Cole, Anna Möller, Jan Adriaan Graw","doi":"10.21037/jtd-2025-1191","DOIUrl":"10.21037/jtd-2025-1191","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Postoperative intensive care plays a crucial role in the perioperative management of coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. It is well established that patients requiring prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV) have an increased risk of developing multiple secondary complications such as ventilator-associated pneumonia accounting for the increase of overall morbidity and mortality. The primary focus of our investigation was to identify new risk factors associated with PMV following CABG surgery.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>All patients who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass surgery and were treated in an interdisciplinary surgical intensive care unit (ISICU) of a tertiary University Medical Center in 2023 were included in this retrospective observational study.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>A total of 339 patients were included in the study. Among the 280 patients who were successfully extubated within 24 hours after surgery (82.6%), the median ventilation time was 15 hours. In contrast, in the PMV group, the median ventilation time was 48.5 hours. Explorative statistical analysis showed significant differences between the two groups for duration of ventilation, ischemia time, time on cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB), duration of surgery, intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay, hospital length of stay, postoperative drainage loss within 12 and 24 hours after surgery, as well as the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE). In-hospital mortality was greater in patients with PMV compared to patients without PMV (10.2% <i>vs.</i> 0.0%, P<0.001). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed longer time on CPB [odds ratio (OR) =1.01, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1-1.02], a lactate peak within the first 24 hours (OR =1.35, 95% CI: 1.2-1.53), and a higher preoperative EuroSCORE (OR =1.23, 95% CI: 1.05-1.45) as significant independent association for the development of PMV.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Comprehensive understanding of the factors that increase the risk of PMV and a precise characterization of patients prone to PMV are considered essential for the management by the attending intensivist. Early identification of risk factors enables the implementation of targeted interventions, which may optimize intensive care management and ultimately contribute to improved patient outcomes.</p>","PeriodicalId":17542,"journal":{"name":"Journal of thoracic disease","volume":"17 12","pages":"10935-10943"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12780461/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145952532","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Erratum: CXCR7 promotes pulmonary vascular remodeling via targeting p38/MMP2 pathway in pulmonary arterial hypertension. 勘误:在肺动脉高压中,CXCR7通过靶向p38/MMP2通路促进肺血管重构。
IF 1.9 3区 医学 Q3 RESPIRATORY SYSTEM Pub Date : 2025-12-31 Epub Date: 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.21037/jtd-2025b-13

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.21037/jtd-24-331.].

[这更正了文章DOI: 10.21037/jtd-24-331]。
{"title":"Erratum: CXCR7 promotes pulmonary vascular remodeling via targeting p38/MMP2 pathway in pulmonary arterial hypertension.","authors":"","doi":"10.21037/jtd-2025b-13","DOIUrl":"10.21037/jtd-2025b-13","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>[This corrects the article DOI: 10.21037/jtd-24-331.].</p>","PeriodicalId":17542,"journal":{"name":"Journal of thoracic disease","volume":"17 12","pages":"11531-11532"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12780428/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145952583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Quantitative analysis for identifying molecular subtypes of small cell lung cancer via two-dimensional and three-dimensional contrast-enhanced computed tomography images: a preliminary study. 通过二维和三维增强ct图像定量分析小细胞肺癌分子亚型:初步研究。
IF 1.9 3区 医学 Q3 RESPIRATORY SYSTEM Pub Date : 2025-12-31 Epub Date: 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.21037/jtd-2025-1041
Xu Jiang, Li Liu, Meng-Wen Liu, Jiu-Ming Jiang, Si-Jie Hu, Jia-Liang Ren, Li Zhang, Jian-Xin Zhang, Lin Yang, Meng Li
<p><strong>Background: </strong>Small cell lung cancer (SCLC) comprises distinct molecular subtypes [neuroendocrine (NE) <i>vs</i>. non-NE] that have different prognoses, with NE tumors generally exhibiting a more aggressive clinical course. However, identifying these subtypes usually requires invasive tissue sampling. Radiomics-the extraction of quantitative features from medical images-offers a potential noninvasive alternative. This study aimed to predict the NE subtype of SCLC using radiomics analysis of contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT) images, and to compare a two-dimensional (2D) radiomics approach with a three-dimensional (3D) approach.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>In this single-center retrospective study, we included 51 patients with resected SCLC (NE subtype n=39, non-NE n=12) between 2005 and 2016, all with preoperative CECT scans and known molecular subtype confirmed by immunohistochemistry. Radiomics features were extracted from arterial-phase CECT images using both a 2D (single largest cross-sectional slice) and 3D (whole tumor volume) segmentation of the primary tumor. Radiomics-based logistic regression models were trained to classify NE <i>vs</i>. non-NE subtypes. Model performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic analysis [area under the curve (AUC)] with bootstrap 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A combined model incorporating radiomics and clinical factors was also tested. Additionally, we explored the association of the radiomics signature with recurrence-free survival (RFS) via Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional-hazards analysis.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The 2D radiomics model achieved an AUC of 0.806 (95% CI: 0.666-0.945) for distinguishing NE <i>vs</i>. non-NE subtypes, comparable to the 3D model (AUC 0.784, 95% CI: 0.634-0.934; P=0.75 or 2D <i>vs</i>. 3D). At the optimal cutoff, the 2D model yielded 64.1% sensitivity and 83.3% specificity. The radiomics signature remained an independent predictor of NE subtype in a combined model [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 6.22, P=0.005], and the addition of radiomics improved the combined model's AUC to 0.861 (<i>vs</i>. 0.673 for clinical factors alone). No conventional clinical or CT features alone were significant predictors. Notably, the 2D radiomics score also stratified patients' outcomes: those predicted as NE subtype had a 5-year RFS of 48.1%, compared to 62.5% for non-NE (log-rank P=0.03). In multivariable Cox analysis, a higher radiomics score showed a trend toward shorter RFS [hazard ratios (HRs) 1.46 per SD increase, P=0.08].</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Quantitative analysis of CECT images via radiomics can noninvasively distinguish NE and non-NE molecular subtypes of SCLC. A simplified 2D radiomics approach performed comparably to 3D volumetric analysis for subtype classification and also demonstrated prognostic relevance. Radiomics could serve as a valuable adjunct for SCLC subtype identification and risk stratification
背景:小细胞肺癌(SCLC)包括不同的分子亚型[神经内分泌(NE)与非NE],具有不同的预后,其中NE肿瘤通常表现出更具侵袭性的临床过程。然而,识别这些亚型通常需要侵入性组织取样。放射组学——从医学图像中提取定量特征——提供了一种潜在的非侵入性替代方法。本研究旨在通过对比增强计算机断层扫描(CECT)图像的放射组学分析预测SCLC的NE亚型,并比较二维(2D)放射组学方法和三维(3D)方法。方法:在这项单中心回顾性研究中,我们纳入了2005年至2016年间51例切除的SCLC患者(NE亚型n=39,非NE亚型n=12),所有患者术前均进行了CECT扫描,并通过免疫组织化学证实了已知的分子亚型。使用原发肿瘤的2D(单个最大横切面)和3D(整个肿瘤体积)分割从动脉期CECT图像中提取放射组学特征。训练基于放射组学的逻辑回归模型对NE与非NE亚型进行分类。采用自举95%置信区间(ci)的受试者工作特征分析[曲线下面积(AUC)]评估模型性能。结合放射组学和临床因素的联合模型也进行了测试。此外,我们通过Kaplan-Meier曲线和Cox比例风险分析探讨了放射组学特征与无复发生存(RFS)的关系。结果:2D放射组学模型区分NE与非NE亚型的AUC为0.806 (95% CI: 0.666-0.945),与3D模型(AUC 0.784, 95% CI: 0.634-0.934; P=0.75或2D vs 3D)相当。在最佳截止点,2D模型的敏感性为64.1%,特异性为83.3%。放射组学特征在联合模型中仍然是NE亚型的独立预测因子[校正优势比(OR) 6.22, P=0.005],放射组学的加入将联合模型的AUC提高到0.861(单独临床因素为0.673)。单纯的常规临床或CT特征均不是重要的预测因素。值得注意的是,2D放射组学评分也对患者的结果进行了分层:预测为NE亚型的患者的5年RFS为48.1%,而非NE亚型的RFS为62.5% (log-rank P=0.03)。在多变量Cox分析中,放射组学评分越高,RFS越短[风险比(hr)为1.46 / SD, P=0.08]。结论:通过放射组学技术对CECT图像进行定量分析,可以无创地区分SCLC的NE和非NE分子亚型。简化的二维放射组学方法在亚型分类方面与三维体积分析相当,也证明了预后相关性。放射组学可以作为SCLC亚型识别和风险分层的有价值的辅助手段,潜在地指导更个性化的治疗决策。
{"title":"Quantitative analysis for identifying molecular subtypes of small cell lung cancer via two-dimensional and three-dimensional contrast-enhanced computed tomography images: a preliminary study.","authors":"Xu Jiang, Li Liu, Meng-Wen Liu, Jiu-Ming Jiang, Si-Jie Hu, Jia-Liang Ren, Li Zhang, Jian-Xin Zhang, Lin Yang, Meng Li","doi":"10.21037/jtd-2025-1041","DOIUrl":"10.21037/jtd-2025-1041","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Background: &lt;/strong&gt;Small cell lung cancer (SCLC) comprises distinct molecular subtypes [neuroendocrine (NE) &lt;i&gt;vs&lt;/i&gt;. non-NE] that have different prognoses, with NE tumors generally exhibiting a more aggressive clinical course. However, identifying these subtypes usually requires invasive tissue sampling. Radiomics-the extraction of quantitative features from medical images-offers a potential noninvasive alternative. This study aimed to predict the NE subtype of SCLC using radiomics analysis of contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT) images, and to compare a two-dimensional (2D) radiomics approach with a three-dimensional (3D) approach.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Methods: &lt;/strong&gt;In this single-center retrospective study, we included 51 patients with resected SCLC (NE subtype n=39, non-NE n=12) between 2005 and 2016, all with preoperative CECT scans and known molecular subtype confirmed by immunohistochemistry. Radiomics features were extracted from arterial-phase CECT images using both a 2D (single largest cross-sectional slice) and 3D (whole tumor volume) segmentation of the primary tumor. Radiomics-based logistic regression models were trained to classify NE &lt;i&gt;vs&lt;/i&gt;. non-NE subtypes. Model performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic analysis [area under the curve (AUC)] with bootstrap 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A combined model incorporating radiomics and clinical factors was also tested. Additionally, we explored the association of the radiomics signature with recurrence-free survival (RFS) via Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional-hazards analysis.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Results: &lt;/strong&gt;The 2D radiomics model achieved an AUC of 0.806 (95% CI: 0.666-0.945) for distinguishing NE &lt;i&gt;vs&lt;/i&gt;. non-NE subtypes, comparable to the 3D model (AUC 0.784, 95% CI: 0.634-0.934; P=0.75 or 2D &lt;i&gt;vs&lt;/i&gt;. 3D). At the optimal cutoff, the 2D model yielded 64.1% sensitivity and 83.3% specificity. The radiomics signature remained an independent predictor of NE subtype in a combined model [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 6.22, P=0.005], and the addition of radiomics improved the combined model's AUC to 0.861 (&lt;i&gt;vs&lt;/i&gt;. 0.673 for clinical factors alone). No conventional clinical or CT features alone were significant predictors. Notably, the 2D radiomics score also stratified patients' outcomes: those predicted as NE subtype had a 5-year RFS of 48.1%, compared to 62.5% for non-NE (log-rank P=0.03). In multivariable Cox analysis, a higher radiomics score showed a trend toward shorter RFS [hazard ratios (HRs) 1.46 per SD increase, P=0.08].&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Conclusions: &lt;/strong&gt;Quantitative analysis of CECT images via radiomics can noninvasively distinguish NE and non-NE molecular subtypes of SCLC. A simplified 2D radiomics approach performed comparably to 3D volumetric analysis for subtype classification and also demonstrated prognostic relevance. Radiomics could serve as a valuable adjunct for SCLC subtype identification and risk stratification","PeriodicalId":17542,"journal":{"name":"Journal of thoracic disease","volume":"17 12","pages":"11172-11185"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12780446/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145952607","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Significance of clinical parameters and biomarkers to predict nintedanib-induced diarrhea: an interview-based retrospective study. 临床参数和生物标志物预测尼达尼布致腹泻的意义:一项基于访谈的回顾性研究。
IF 1.9 3区 医学 Q3 RESPIRATORY SYSTEM Pub Date : 2025-12-31 Epub Date: 2025-12-15 DOI: 10.21037/jtd-2025-938
Toru Arai, Masakazu Hiramatsu, Naoko Takeuchi, Takayuki Takimoto, Tomoko Kagawa, Ryota Shintani, Mitsuhiro Moda, Masaki Hirose, Tamaki Nakayama, Yoko Yasui

Background: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a poor prognostic fibrotic interstitial lung disease (ILD) of unknown etiology. Similarly, the prognosis of patients with ILD and progressive pulmonary fibrosis (PPF) is poor. Nintedanib reduces the decline in forced vital capacity (FVC) and improves the survival of patients with IPF and non-IPF ILDs meeting PPF criteria (hereafter "PPF"). Diarrhea is a significant adverse event associated with nintedanib, and it is sometimes the reason for the discontinuation of the drug. In this study, we aimed to identify clinical predictors of nintedanib-induced diarrhea and to clarify significance of ILD biomarkers to predict their occurrence after the adjustment using the significant clinical predictors.

Methods: Seventy-nine patients with ILDs treated with nintedanib were included in this study. Diarrhea was retrospectively evaluated based on interviews, and medical records were reviewed for other clinical findings. Furthermore, biomarkers including surfactant protein-D (SP-D) serum levels and peripheral blood monocyte counts were examined. Parameters' predictive abilities were examined using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses.

Results: Participants comprised 57 males and 22 non-smokers. The underlying ILDs included IPF (n=39) and PPF (n=40). PPF included idiopathic interstitial pneumonia (IIP) other than IPF (n=19), fibrotic hypersensitivity pneumonitis (FHP) (n=8), connective tissue disease-related ILDs (CTD-ILDs) (n=8), and other ILDs (n=5). Fourteen patients underwent corticosteroid therapy at the initiation of nintedanib. Nintedanib-induced diarrhea occurred within 3 months in 47 patients (IPF, n=30; PPF, n=17). IPF, no corticosteroid therapy, nintedanib per body surface area (BSA), and %FVC ≤80% were associated with the occurrence of diarrhea within 3 months after commencing nintedanib treatment by multivariate logistic regression analysis. Additionally, monocyte counts ≤650/µL and serum SP-D >157.5 ng/mL were associated with occurrence of diarrhea after the adjustment of other factors.

Conclusions: Nintedanib-induced diarrhea is significantly associated with various complex factors. IPF, no corticosteroid therapy, a higher nintedanib dose per BSA, and a lower %FVC were associated with the occurrence of diarrhea within 3 months of initiating nintedanib therapy. Lower monocyte counts and higher levels of serum SP-D at the initiation of nintedanib might suggest occurrence of diarrhea. Although large-scale studies are needed to draw definite conclusions regarding our hypothesis, the results of our study and hypothesis of nintedanib-induced diarrhea might suggest future research direction and lead to new management of nintedanib-induced diarrhea.

背景:特发性肺纤维化(IPF)是一种病因不明的预后不良的纤维化间质性肺疾病(ILD)。同样,ILD合并进行性肺纤维化(PPF)患者的预后也很差。尼达尼布减少了用力肺活量(FVC)的下降,提高了IPF和符合PPF标准(以下简称PPF)的非IPF ild患者的生存率。腹泻是与尼达尼布相关的重大不良事件,有时是停药的原因。在这项研究中,我们旨在确定尼达尼诱发腹泻的临床预测因素,并阐明ILD生物标志物在使用重要临床预测因素调整后预测其发生的意义。方法:对79例接受尼达尼布治疗的ild患者进行研究。根据访谈对腹泻进行回顾性评估,并对医疗记录进行回顾以了解其他临床发现。此外,检测包括表面活性剂蛋白d (SP-D)血清水平和外周血单核细胞计数在内的生物标志物。使用单变量和多变量逻辑回归分析检验参数的预测能力。结果:参与者包括57名男性和22名非吸烟者。基础ild包括IPF (n=39)和PPF (n=40)。PPF包括除IPF外的特发性间质性肺炎(IIP) (n=19)、纤维化超敏性肺炎(FHP) (n=8)、结缔组织病相关ILDs (CTD-ILDs) (n=8)和其他ILDs (n=5)。14例患者在尼达尼布开始时接受了皮质类固醇治疗。47例患者(IPF, n=30; PPF, n=17)在3个月内发生尼达尼布引起的腹泻。多因素logistic回归分析显示,IPF、非皮质类固醇治疗、尼达尼布单位体表面积(BSA)、%FVC≤80%与开始尼达尼布治疗后3个月内腹泻的发生相关。此外,调整其他因素后,单核细胞计数≤650/µL、血清SP-D >157.5 ng/mL与腹泻的发生相关。结论:尼达尼布致腹泻与多种复杂因素显著相关。IPF、无皮质类固醇治疗、每BSA较高的尼达尼剂量和较低的FVC %与开始尼达尼治疗后3个月内腹泻的发生有关。开始服用尼达尼布时单核细胞计数较低和血清SP-D水平较高可能提示腹泻的发生。虽然我们的假设需要大规模的研究来得出明确的结论,但我们的研究结果和尼达尼布致腹泻的假设可能为未来的研究方向提供建议,并导致尼达尼布致腹泻的新管理。
{"title":"Significance of clinical parameters and biomarkers to predict nintedanib-induced diarrhea: an interview-based retrospective study.","authors":"Toru Arai, Masakazu Hiramatsu, Naoko Takeuchi, Takayuki Takimoto, Tomoko Kagawa, Ryota Shintani, Mitsuhiro Moda, Masaki Hirose, Tamaki Nakayama, Yoko Yasui","doi":"10.21037/jtd-2025-938","DOIUrl":"10.21037/jtd-2025-938","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a poor prognostic fibrotic interstitial lung disease (ILD) of unknown etiology. Similarly, the prognosis of patients with ILD and progressive pulmonary fibrosis (PPF) is poor. Nintedanib reduces the decline in forced vital capacity (FVC) and improves the survival of patients with IPF and non-IPF ILDs meeting PPF criteria (hereafter \"PPF\"). Diarrhea is a significant adverse event associated with nintedanib, and it is sometimes the reason for the discontinuation of the drug. In this study, we aimed to identify clinical predictors of nintedanib-induced diarrhea and to clarify significance of ILD biomarkers to predict their occurrence after the adjustment using the significant clinical predictors.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Seventy-nine patients with ILDs treated with nintedanib were included in this study. Diarrhea was retrospectively evaluated based on interviews, and medical records were reviewed for other clinical findings. Furthermore, biomarkers including surfactant protein-D (SP-D) serum levels and peripheral blood monocyte counts were examined. Parameters' predictive abilities were examined using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Participants comprised 57 males and 22 non-smokers. The underlying ILDs included IPF (n=39) and PPF (n=40). PPF included idiopathic interstitial pneumonia (IIP) other than IPF (n=19), fibrotic hypersensitivity pneumonitis (FHP) (n=8), connective tissue disease-related ILDs (CTD-ILDs) (n=8), and other ILDs (n=5). Fourteen patients underwent corticosteroid therapy at the initiation of nintedanib. Nintedanib-induced diarrhea occurred within 3 months in 47 patients (IPF, n=30; PPF, n=17). IPF, no corticosteroid therapy, nintedanib per body surface area (BSA), and %FVC ≤80% were associated with the occurrence of diarrhea within 3 months after commencing nintedanib treatment by multivariate logistic regression analysis. Additionally, monocyte counts ≤650/µL and serum SP-D >157.5 ng/mL were associated with occurrence of diarrhea after the adjustment of other factors.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Nintedanib-induced diarrhea is significantly associated with various complex factors. IPF, no corticosteroid therapy, a higher nintedanib dose per BSA, and a lower %FVC were associated with the occurrence of diarrhea within 3 months of initiating nintedanib therapy. Lower monocyte counts and higher levels of serum SP-D at the initiation of nintedanib might suggest occurrence of diarrhea. Although large-scale studies are needed to draw definite conclusions regarding our hypothesis, the results of our study and hypothesis of nintedanib-induced diarrhea might suggest future research direction and lead to new management of nintedanib-induced diarrhea.</p>","PeriodicalId":17542,"journal":{"name":"Journal of thoracic disease","volume":"17 12","pages":"10805-10819"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12780375/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145952155","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Single-incision versus multi-incision minimally invasive esophagectomy with different reconstruction routes for esophageal cancer: a retrospective propensity-weighted analysis. 食管癌单切口与多切口微创食管切除术不同重建路径的回顾性倾向加权分析
IF 1.9 3区 医学 Q3 RESPIRATORY SYSTEM Pub Date : 2025-12-31 Epub Date: 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.21037/jtd-2025-aw-2317
Ruirong Lin, Weikun Su, Guibin Weng, Yijin Lin, Lin Chen, Jiarong Zhang, Yibin Cai, Weimin Fang

Background: The treatment of esophageal cancer requires optimized surgical approaches to improve patient outcomes. Minimally invasive esophagectomy (MIE) has demonstrated advantages compared to open procedures, but the difference in efficacy of single-incision versus multi-incision techniques under various reconstruction routes remains unclear. This retrospective propensity-weighted study aimed to evaluate the perioperative outcomes and short-term functional recovery between single-incision laparo-thoracoscopic MIE with retrosternal reconstruction (SIMIE-RS) and multi-incision MIE with posterior mediastinal reconstruction (MIMIE-PM) in patients with esophageal cancer.

Methods: This retrospective study included 339 patients with esophageal cancer who underwent McKeown esophagectomy. The inverse probability of the treatment weighting (IPTW) approach was employed to assess outcome between SIMIE-RS and MIMIE-PM. The primary endpoints included postoperative complications, functional recovery parameters, and perioperative outcomes. Secondary endpoints included oncological adequacy, hospital length of stay, and quality of life indicators.

Results: Pulmonary complications were markedly reduced in the SIMIE-RS group as compared to the MIMIE-PM group, with a lower incidence of pneumonia (0.9% vs. 5.5%; P=0.02). Postoperative pain control was substantially improved in the SIMIE-RS group, who exhibited lower visual analog scale scores at 24 hours (3.1±1.0 vs. 7.5±1.1; P<0.001) and 72 hours (1.6±1.1 vs. 3.3±1.2; P<0.001) as compared to the MIMIE-PM group. SIMIE-RS also provided greater functional recovery, with superior forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) preservation at 1 month (3.2±0.5 vs. 2.4±0.6; P<0.001) and reduced reflux symptoms (1.2±0.5 vs. 1.8±0.9; P<0.001). Hospital length of stay was significantly shorter in the SIMIE-RS group than in the MIMIE-PM group (7.0±1.6 vs. 9.7±1.5 days; P<0.001). The safety profiles of the SIMIE-RS group and MIMIE-PM group were comparable in terms of surgery-related complications, including anastomotic leakage (2.8% vs. 5.0%; P=0.55), recurrent laryngeal nerve paralysis (0.9% vs. 1.0%; P>0.99), and chylothorax (0.9% vs. 1.5%; P=0.66). Oncological adequacy was maintained, with similar total lymph node yields between the groups (33±11.1 vs. 32.1±12.2; P=0.53).

Conclusions: SIMIE-RS provides superior perioperative outcomes as compared to MIMIE-PM, with significant reductions in pulmonary complications, enhanced functional recovery, improved pain control, and shortened hospital stays, as well as comparable surgical safety and oncological adequacy. Our findings indicate that SIMIE-RS is a viable innovation in esophageal cancer surgery that concentrates operative trauma while optimizing reconstruction pathways.

背景:食管癌的治疗需要优化手术入路以改善患者预后。微创食管切除术(MIE)与开放式手术相比具有优势,但在不同重建路径下,单切口与多切口技术的疗效差异尚不清楚。本回顾性倾向加权研究旨在评价食管癌患者单切口胸腔镜MIE合并胸骨后重建(SIMIE-RS)与多切口MIE合并后纵隔重建(MIMIE-PM)的围手术期疗效和短期功能恢复情况。方法:对339例行McKeown食管切除术的食管癌患者进行回顾性研究。采用治疗加权逆概率法(IPTW)评价SIMIE-RS和MIMIE-PM的疗效。主要终点包括术后并发症、功能恢复参数和围手术期结果。次要终点包括肿瘤充分性、住院时间和生活质量指标。结果:与MIMIE-PM组相比,SIMIE-RS组肺部并发症明显减少,肺炎发生率更低(0.9% vs. 5.5%; P=0.02)。SIMIE-RS组术后疼痛控制显著改善,患者在24小时(3.1±1.0比7.5±1.1;pv比3.3±1.2;pv比2.4±0.6;pv比1.8±0.9;pv比9.7±1.5天;pv比5.0%;P=0.55)、喉复发神经麻痹(0.9%比1.0%;P= 0.99)和乳糜胸(0.9%比1.5%;P=0.66)表现出较低的视觉模拟量表评分。肿瘤的充分性得以维持,两组间的淋巴结总数相似(33±11.1 vs. 32.1±12.2;P=0.53)。结论:与MIMIE-PM相比,SIMIE-RS提供了更好的围手术期结果,显著减少了肺部并发症,增强了功能恢复,改善了疼痛控制,缩短了住院时间,并且具有相当的手术安全性和肿瘤充分性。我们的研究结果表明SIMIE-RS是食管癌手术中可行的创新,它可以集中手术创伤,同时优化重建途径。
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引用次数: 0
Development of a machine learning-based model to predict prognosis of resected invasive pulmonary adenocarcinoma. 基于机器学习的肺腺癌切除预后预测模型的建立。
IF 1.9 3区 医学 Q3 RESPIRATORY SYSTEM Pub Date : 2025-12-31 Epub Date: 2025-12-24 DOI: 10.21037/jtd-2025-1669
Jie Huang, Jiannan Qian, Yunshan Zhong, Bing Xia, Xing Feng, Wen Meng, Dongshan Wei, Jiafeng Liang, Yihui Ding, Rujun Xu, Jingjing Xiang, Hong Jiang, Shenglin Ma, Xueqin Chen

Background: Invasive pulmonary adenocarcinoma (IPA) poses a significant threat to global health and patients still experience tumor recurrence and metastasis. This study aimed to construct an optimized prognosis model using machine learning to predict the disease-free survival (DFS) of IPA patients.

Methods: A total of 670 resected IPA patients from 2015 to 2020 were enrolled. Clinicopathological information was collected and the outcomes of patients were followed up. Patients were divided into a training set and a test set at a ratio of 4:1. Four machine learning models were compared to build the DFS models and 5-fold cross validation was performed. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), C-index, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the model.

Results: Among the four models, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) model showed the best performance in predicting DFS at 2-year (training set: AUC =0.906, test set: AUC =0.862), at 3-year (training set: AUC =0.894, test set: AUC =0.879), at 4-year (training set: AUC =0.901, test set: AUC =0.902), and at 5-year (training set: AUC =0.927, test set: AUC =0.887). The calibration curves and DCA exhibited a good predictive performance.

Conclusions: Our study successfully constructed a machine-learning based prognostic model to predict DFS, which may provide oncologists with an effective tool for early medical intervention and survival improvement.

背景:侵袭性肺腺癌(Invasive pulmonary adenocarmicoma, IPA)对全球健康构成重大威胁,患者仍有复发和转移的危险。本研究旨在利用机器学习构建优化的预后模型来预测IPA患者的无病生存期(DFS)。方法:纳入2015 - 2020年670例IPA切除患者。收集临床病理资料,随访患者预后。将患者按4:1的比例分为训练集和测试集。比较4种机器学习模型建立DFS模型,并进行5次交叉验证。采用受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)、c指数、标定曲线和决策曲线分析(DCA)对模型进行评价。结果:4个模型中,最小绝对收缩和选择算子(Lasso)模型在2年(训练集:AUC =0.906,测试集:AUC =0.862)、3年(训练集:AUC =0.894,测试集:AUC =0.879)、4年(训练集:AUC =0.901,测试集:AUC =0.902)和5年(训练集:AUC =0.927,测试集:AUC =0.887)时的DFS预测效果最好。标定曲线和DCA均具有较好的预测效果。结论:我们的研究成功构建了一个基于机器学习的预后模型来预测DFS,这可能为肿瘤学家提供早期医疗干预和改善生存的有效工具。
{"title":"Development of a machine learning-based model to predict prognosis of resected invasive pulmonary adenocarcinoma.","authors":"Jie Huang, Jiannan Qian, Yunshan Zhong, Bing Xia, Xing Feng, Wen Meng, Dongshan Wei, Jiafeng Liang, Yihui Ding, Rujun Xu, Jingjing Xiang, Hong Jiang, Shenglin Ma, Xueqin Chen","doi":"10.21037/jtd-2025-1669","DOIUrl":"10.21037/jtd-2025-1669","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Invasive pulmonary adenocarcinoma (IPA) poses a significant threat to global health and patients still experience tumor recurrence and metastasis. This study aimed to construct an optimized prognosis model using machine learning to predict the disease-free survival (DFS) of IPA patients.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A total of 670 resected IPA patients from 2015 to 2020 were enrolled. Clinicopathological information was collected and the outcomes of patients were followed up. Patients were divided into a training set and a test set at a ratio of 4:1. Four machine learning models were compared to build the DFS models and 5-fold cross validation was performed. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), C-index, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the model.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Among the four models, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) model showed the best performance in predicting DFS at 2-year (training set: AUC =0.906, test set: AUC =0.862), at 3-year (training set: AUC =0.894, test set: AUC =0.879), at 4-year (training set: AUC =0.901, test set: AUC =0.902), and at 5-year (training set: AUC =0.927, test set: AUC =0.887). The calibration curves and DCA exhibited a good predictive performance.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Our study successfully constructed a machine-learning based prognostic model to predict DFS, which may provide oncologists with an effective tool for early medical intervention and survival improvement.</p>","PeriodicalId":17542,"journal":{"name":"Journal of thoracic disease","volume":"17 12","pages":"11057-11067"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12780411/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145952423","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Persistent and unstable eosinophil levels in the sputum and blood: impact on the clinical prognosis of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. 痰和血液中持续和不稳定的嗜酸性粒细胞水平:对慢性阻塞性肺疾病患者临床预后的影响
IF 1.9 3区 医学 Q3 RESPIRATORY SYSTEM Pub Date : 2025-12-31 Epub Date: 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.21037/jtd-2025-1885
Jieqi Peng, Xiaohui Wu, Xiang Wen, Zhishan Deng, Fan Wu, Gaoying Tang, Qi Wan, Cuiqiong Dai, Kunning Zhou, Lifei Lu, Shengtang Chen, Changli Yang, Yongqing Huang, Shuqing Yu, Pixin Ran, Yumin Zhou

Background: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) with eosinophilia exhibit poor lung function. However, the prognostic impact of eosinophilia remains unclear. This study evaluates the relationship between sputum and blood eosinophil variability and the long-term clinical outcomes of COPD.

Methods: Sputum eosinophil proportion ≥3% and blood eosinophil count ≥300 cells/µL were considered high. Based on sputum/blood eosinophil levels at baseline and at the 3-year follow-up, patients with COPD were divided into the persistently low, unstable, and persistently high sputum/blood eosinophils groups. Poisson regression was used to assess acute exacerbation risk, and mixed-effects models were used to evaluate lung function decline.

Results: Compared with the persistently low sputum eosinophils group (n=183), the persistently high sputum eosinophils group (n=68) had more dyspnea and had a higher modified Medical Research Council score, poorer baseline lung function, and experienced more total exacerbations [adjusted relative risk (RR) 1.47, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.21-1.80, P<0.001] and more moderate-to-severe exacerbations [adjusted RR 1.62, 95% CI: 1.25-2.10, P<0.001]. The unstable sputum eosinophils group (n=122) experienced more total exacerbations (adjusted RR 1.47, 95% CI: 1.24-1.75, P<0.001) and more moderate-to-severe exacerbations (adjusted RR 1.29, 95% CI: 1.02-1.63, P=0.03). Similarly, the persistently high blood eosinophils group experienced more total exacerbations than the persistently low blood eosinophils group (adjusted RR 1.27, 95% CI: 1.05-1.54, P=0.02), the unstable blood eosinophils group experienced more total exacerbations (adjusted RR 1.27, 95% CI: 1.07-1.51, P=0.008) and more moderate-to-severe exacerbations (adjusted RR 1.29, 95% CI: 1.03-1.62, P=0.03). There were no significant differences in lung function decline.

Conclusions: Persistent eosinophil elevation was associated with a higher exacerbation risk.

背景:慢性阻塞性肺疾病(COPD)伴嗜酸性粒细胞增多的患者表现为肺功能差。然而,嗜酸性粒细胞增多对预后的影响尚不清楚。本研究评估痰和血嗜酸性粒细胞变异性与慢性阻塞性肺病长期临床结局之间的关系。方法:痰中嗜酸性粒细胞比例≥3%,血中嗜酸性粒细胞计数≥300个/µL为高。根据基线和3年随访时的痰/血嗜酸性粒细胞水平,将COPD患者分为持续低、不稳定和持续高痰/血嗜酸性粒细胞组。泊松回归用于评估急性加重风险,混合效应模型用于评估肺功能下降。结果:与持续低痰嗜酸性粒细胞组(n=183)相比,持续高痰嗜酸性粒细胞组(n=68)有更多的呼吸困难,有更高的医学研究委员会评分,更差的基线肺功能,经历更多的总加重[调整相对危险度(RR) 1.47, 95%可信区间(CI): 1.21-1.80, p]结论:持续嗜酸性粒细胞升高与更高的加重风险相关。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of thoracic disease
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