On 30 April 2015, the Bank of Russia reduced the key interest rate from 14% to 12.5% per annum, noting in this connection that the inflation risks had become less pronounced, but that the risks of a more significant cooling of the economy were still there. By all indications, the RF Central Bank believes that any further strengthening of the ruble can hardly be feasible. On 14 May, the RF Central Bank announced that it would once again resort to interventions in the form of foreign exchange purchases in order to replenish its international reserves in the amount of $ 100m–200m per day. Over April 2015, the Consumer Price Index’s growth amounted to 0.5% (vs. 0.9% in April 2014.), which is 0.7 pp. below its March 2015 level. As a result, the inflation index in April 2015 amounted to 16.4% of its April 2014 level, thus having declined for the first time since July 2014. Over the first 25 days of May 2015, the Consumer Price Index’s growth rate dwindled to 0.3%.
{"title":"Russia’s Inflation and Monetary Policy in April 2015","authors":"A. Bozhechkova, A. Kiyutsevskaya, P. Trunin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2620673","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2620673","url":null,"abstract":"On 30 April 2015, the Bank of Russia reduced the key interest rate from 14% to 12.5% per annum, noting in this connection that the inflation risks had become less pronounced, but that the risks of a more significant cooling of the economy were still there. By all indications, the RF Central Bank believes that any further strengthening of the ruble can hardly be feasible. On 14 May, the RF Central Bank announced that it would once again resort to interventions in the form of foreign exchange purchases in order to replenish its international reserves in the amount of $ 100m–200m per day. Over April 2015, the Consumer Price Index’s growth amounted to 0.5% (vs. 0.9% in April 2014.), which is 0.7 pp. below its March 2015 level. As a result, the inflation index in April 2015 amounted to 16.4% of its April 2014 level, thus having declined for the first time since July 2014. Over the first 25 days of May 2015, the Consumer Price Index’s growth rate dwindled to 0.3%.","PeriodicalId":178626,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Monetary & Fiscal Policies in Emerging Markets (Topic)","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122135211","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper introduces a generalized money (M2) multiplier formula to the literature for a monetary system with Reserve Option Mechanism (ROM). Various features of the proposed multiplier are then explored using monthly Turkish data during the decade 2005 to 2015. We report a step increase in the magnitude and a slight upward adjustment in the long-run trend of the multiplier with the adoption of ROM. We provide evidence for substantial change in the seasonal pattern of the multiplier, cash ratio, required and excess reserves under ROM. We show that money (M2) multiplier is less volatile in a monetary system with ROM and discuss the subsequent stabilizing influence of more predictable multiplier on the foreign exchange market.
{"title":"Money Multiplier Under Reserve Option Mechanism","authors":"Halit Akturk, Hasan Gocen, S. Duran","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2614431","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2614431","url":null,"abstract":"This paper introduces a generalized money (M2) multiplier formula to the literature for a monetary system with Reserve Option Mechanism (ROM). Various features of the proposed multiplier are then explored using monthly Turkish data during the decade 2005 to 2015. We report a step increase in the magnitude and a slight upward adjustment in the long-run trend of the multiplier with the adoption of ROM. We provide evidence for substantial change in the seasonal pattern of the multiplier, cash ratio, required and excess reserves under ROM. We show that money (M2) multiplier is less volatile in a monetary system with ROM and discuss the subsequent stabilizing influence of more predictable multiplier on the foreign exchange market.","PeriodicalId":178626,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Monetary & Fiscal Policies in Emerging Markets (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115605408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Liberalizing China's capital account may have profound implications for the RMB exchange rate, monetary policy autonomy, and Chinese and the world economy. Owing to the scarcity of proper measurements of China's capital controls, rigorous studies on the effectiveness and implications of China's capital controls are limited. We contribute to the literature by creating a new data set of indices including de jure and hybrid measurements of the changes in China's capital controls, hoping to inspire a new avenue of research in this area. In contrasting to other capital control indices that are compiled in a yes-or-no style, we quantify the intensity of changes in China's capital controls. Our indices reveal a persistent but uneven process of capital account liberalization in China between 1999 and 2012. This paper describes the de jure and hybrid indices, including indices for capital controls on individual asset categories, gross flows, inflows and outflows, as well as for residents and nonresidents asset transactions. Understanding that China usually implements policies in a step by step gradualist style, we extract those gradual information from the lines of the text in the IMF's Annual Report on Exchange Arrangement and Exchange Restrictions (AREAER) and some supplementary material from other sources.
{"title":"Measuring the On-Going Changes in China's Capital Flow Management: A De Jure and a Hybrid Index Data Set","authors":"Jinzhao Chen, Xingwang Qian","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2552298","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2552298","url":null,"abstract":"Liberalizing China's capital account may have profound implications for the RMB exchange rate, monetary policy autonomy, and Chinese and the world economy. Owing to the scarcity of proper measurements of China's capital controls, rigorous studies on the effectiveness and implications of China's capital controls are limited. We contribute to the literature by creating a new data set of indices including de jure and hybrid measurements of the changes in China's capital controls, hoping to inspire a new avenue of research in this area. In contrasting to other capital control indices that are compiled in a yes-or-no style, we quantify the intensity of changes in China's capital controls. Our indices reveal a persistent but uneven process of capital account liberalization in China between 1999 and 2012. This paper describes the de jure and hybrid indices, including indices for capital controls on individual asset categories, gross flows, inflows and outflows, as well as for residents and nonresidents asset transactions. Understanding that China usually implements policies in a step by step gradualist style, we extract those gradual information from the lines of the text in the IMF's Annual Report on Exchange Arrangement and Exchange Restrictions (AREAER) and some supplementary material from other sources.","PeriodicalId":178626,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Monetary & Fiscal Policies in Emerging Markets (Topic)","volume":"110 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127980525","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economists and policy-makers have long sought the ideal framework for monetary policy as it is arguably one of the most important tools for government to influence the economy. Exchange rate and inflation are believed to be the most appealing anchors for providing guidance to the conduct of monetary policy and are thus widely used in the real world. Most existing studies on the effect of exchange-rate arrangements and inflation targeting on economic growth suffer from the absence of a clear counterfactual, rendering it difficult to interpret their results. Based on a new classification scheme on monetary policy regimes, this paper helps to fill that gap by investigating the effect of monetary policy regimes on growth. Our results consistently support that an inflation targeting regime has a positive impact on economic growth when compared with an exchange-rate targeting regime.
{"title":"What Should Central Banks Target? Evidence on the Impact of Monetary Policy Regimes on Economic Growth","authors":"K. Wong, T. Chong","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2589801","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2589801","url":null,"abstract":"Economists and policy-makers have long sought the ideal framework for monetary policy as it is arguably one of the most important tools for government to influence the economy. Exchange rate and inflation are believed to be the most appealing anchors for providing guidance to the conduct of monetary policy and are thus widely used in the real world. Most existing studies on the effect of exchange-rate arrangements and inflation targeting on economic growth suffer from the absence of a clear counterfactual, rendering it difficult to interpret their results. Based on a new classification scheme on monetary policy regimes, this paper helps to fill that gap by investigating the effect of monetary policy regimes on growth. Our results consistently support that an inflation targeting regime has a positive impact on economic growth when compared with an exchange-rate targeting regime.","PeriodicalId":178626,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Monetary & Fiscal Policies in Emerging Markets (Topic)","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115409853","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2014-12-01DOI: 10.5089/9781498334235.001
Peter Lindner, S. Jung
The financial performance of India's corporate sector has been under pressure since the Global Financial Crisis. Balance-sheet data on a large cross-section of Indian non-financial corporates show that the growth in their leverage over the last 15 years has been associated with a notable increase in the vulnerabilities of firms carrying high interest payment burdens.Gauged by the debt carried by the most vulnerable component of firms, the Indian corporate sector’s vulnerability to severe systemic shocks has increased to levels not seen since 2001.Progress on the macroeconomic front, together with improved credit appraisals and stricter impairment standards on the bank side, will be critical to help India's banks resume their role as economic growth drivers.
{"title":"Corporate Vulnerabilities in India and Banks' Loan Performance","authors":"Peter Lindner, S. Jung","doi":"10.5089/9781498334235.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498334235.001","url":null,"abstract":"The financial performance of India's corporate sector has been under pressure since the Global Financial Crisis. Balance-sheet data on a large cross-section of Indian non-financial corporates show that the growth in their leverage over the last 15 years has been associated with a notable increase in the vulnerabilities of firms carrying high interest payment burdens.Gauged by the debt carried by the most vulnerable component of firms, the Indian corporate sector’s vulnerability to severe systemic shocks has increased to levels not seen since 2001.Progress on the macroeconomic front, together with improved credit appraisals and stricter impairment standards on the bank side, will be critical to help India's banks resume their role as economic growth drivers.","PeriodicalId":178626,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Monetary & Fiscal Policies in Emerging Markets (Topic)","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132334814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2014-12-01DOI: 10.5089/9781498380423.001
Jiaqian Chen, Tommaso Mancini Griffoli, R. Sahay
The impact of monetary policy in large advanced countries on emerging market economies — dubbed spillovers — is hotly debated in global and national policy circles. When the U.S. resorted to unconventional monetary policy, spillovers on asset prices and capital flows were significant, though remained smaller in countries with better fundamentals. This was not because monetary policy shocks changed (in size, sign or impact on stance). In fact, the traditional signaling channel of monetary policy continued to play the leading role in transmitting shocks, relative to other channels, affecting longer-term bond yields. Instead, we find that larger spillovers stem more from structural factors, such as the use of new instruments (asset purchases). We obtain these results by developing a new methodology to extract, separate, and interpret U.S. monetary policy shocks.
{"title":"Spillovers from United States Monetary Policy on Emerging Markets: Different this Time?","authors":"Jiaqian Chen, Tommaso Mancini Griffoli, R. Sahay","doi":"10.5089/9781498380423.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498380423.001","url":null,"abstract":"The impact of monetary policy in large advanced countries on emerging market economies — dubbed spillovers — is hotly debated in global and national policy circles. When the U.S. resorted to unconventional monetary policy, spillovers on asset prices and capital flows were significant, though remained smaller in countries with better fundamentals. This was not because monetary policy shocks changed (in size, sign or impact on stance). In fact, the traditional signaling channel of monetary policy continued to play the leading role in transmitting shocks, relative to other channels, affecting longer-term bond yields. Instead, we find that larger spillovers stem more from structural factors, such as the use of new instruments (asset purchases). We obtain these results by developing a new methodology to extract, separate, and interpret U.S. monetary policy shocks.","PeriodicalId":178626,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Monetary & Fiscal Policies in Emerging Markets (Topic)","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117304398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Several central banks in emerging economies are concerned with excessive volatility in foreign exchange markets and would like to control the direction and speed with which the value of their currency changes. Historically, currency market interventions have consisted of using foreign exchange reserves to purchase and sell foreign currency directly in the spot market. However, these spot interventions are not the only type of interventions available to central banks. The Colombian central bank implemented various strategies to intervene into currency markets to smooth volatility, build reserves, and influence the direction of the exchange rate by issuing options contracts as well as using daily discretionary purchases of US dollars. In this paper we analyze these recent strategies employed by Colombia, with a special focus on the volatility option strategy. We argue that the abandonment of the options program was premature and that its success was not fully appreciated in previous literature.
{"title":"Options and Central Banks Currency Market Intervention: The Case of Colombia","authors":"H. Keefe, E. Rengifo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2494821","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2494821","url":null,"abstract":"Several central banks in emerging economies are concerned with excessive volatility in foreign exchange markets and would like to control the direction and speed with which the value of their currency changes. Historically, currency market interventions have consisted of using foreign exchange reserves to purchase and sell foreign currency directly in the spot market. However, these spot interventions are not the only type of interventions available to central banks. The Colombian central bank implemented various strategies to intervene into currency markets to smooth volatility, build reserves, and influence the direction of the exchange rate by issuing options contracts as well as using daily discretionary purchases of US dollars. In this paper we analyze these recent strategies employed by Colombia, with a special focus on the volatility option strategy. We argue that the abandonment of the options program was premature and that its success was not fully appreciated in previous literature.","PeriodicalId":178626,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Monetary & Fiscal Policies in Emerging Markets (Topic)","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115900334","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The paper examines the growth of Insurance sector in India and compares the penetration and density levels of Indian Insurance sector with that of China and also estimates the income elasticity of demand for Insurance in India.
{"title":"Penetration, Density and Elasticity Aspects of Insurance Sector in India","authors":"Dr. Padma Bhamidipati","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2564897","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2564897","url":null,"abstract":"The paper examines the growth of Insurance sector in India and compares the penetration and density levels of Indian Insurance sector with that of China and also estimates the income elasticity of demand for Insurance in India.","PeriodicalId":178626,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Monetary & Fiscal Policies in Emerging Markets (Topic)","volume":"87 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122876501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2014-06-01DOI: 10.5089/9781498375429.001.A001
F. Ozkan, D. F. Unsal
We explore optimal monetary and macroprudential policy rules for a small open economy. Delegating 'lean against the wind' squarely to macroprudential policy provides a more robust policy mix to shock uncertainty—(i) if macroprudential measures exist, there are no significant welfare gains from monetary policy reacting to credit growth under a financial shock; and (ii) monetary responses to financial markets could generate bigger welfare losses than macroprudential responses under different shocks. The source of outstanding liabilities also plays a role in the choice of policy instrument— macroprudential policies are particularly effective for emerging markets where foreign borrowing is sizeable.
{"title":"On the Use of Monetary and Macroprudential Policies for Small Open Economies","authors":"F. Ozkan, D. F. Unsal","doi":"10.5089/9781498375429.001.A001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498375429.001.A001","url":null,"abstract":"We explore optimal monetary and macroprudential policy rules for a small open economy. Delegating 'lean against the wind' squarely to macroprudential policy provides a more robust policy mix to shock uncertainty—(i) if macroprudential measures exist, there are no significant welfare gains from monetary policy reacting to credit growth under a financial shock; and (ii) monetary responses to financial markets could generate bigger welfare losses than macroprudential responses under different shocks. The source of outstanding liabilities also plays a role in the choice of policy instrument— macroprudential policies are particularly effective for emerging markets where foreign borrowing is sizeable.","PeriodicalId":178626,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Monetary & Fiscal Policies in Emerging Markets (Topic)","volume":"348 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115283237","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
After decades using monetary aggregates as the main instrument of monetary policy and having different varieties of crawling peg exchange rate regimes, Colombia adopted a full-fledged inflation-targeting (IT) regime in 1999, with inflation as the nominal anchor, a floating exchange rate, and the short-term interest rate as the main instrument. This paper examines the experience of the Colombian Central Bank over the last decade, a period of consolidation and innovation of its IT strategy. The paper studies the increasing number of instruments used by the CB, including systematic foreign exchange interventions, announcements, and, sporadically, macro-prudential policies, capital controls, and changes in reserve requirements, among others. The study also examines some political economy dimensions that help explain the behavior of the CB during this period. To guide the discussion, a small-scale open-economy policy model is estimated.
{"title":"Inflation Targeting in Colombia, 2002-2012","authors":"M. Urrutia, M. Hofstetter, Franz Hamann","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2407367","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2407367","url":null,"abstract":"After decades using monetary aggregates as the main instrument of monetary policy and having different varieties of crawling peg exchange rate regimes, Colombia adopted a full-fledged inflation-targeting (IT) regime in 1999, with inflation as the nominal anchor, a floating exchange rate, and the short-term interest rate as the main instrument. This paper examines the experience of the Colombian Central Bank over the last decade, a period of consolidation and innovation of its IT strategy. The paper studies the increasing number of instruments used by the CB, including systematic foreign exchange interventions, announcements, and, sporadically, macro-prudential policies, capital controls, and changes in reserve requirements, among others. The study also examines some political economy dimensions that help explain the behavior of the CB during this period. To guide the discussion, a small-scale open-economy policy model is estimated.","PeriodicalId":178626,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Monetary & Fiscal Policies in Emerging Markets (Topic)","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117334602","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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