Pub Date : 2019-08-20DOI: 10.5772/intechopen.88252
I. Goncharov, N. Goncharov, P. Parinov, S. Kochedykov, A. Dushkin
The paper considers the objects, subjects, purposes, tools, methods and implementation of information-psychological impact (IPI). It suggests a cellular automata model of the diffusion process of information-psychological impact in social networks, the hierarchy of the changes in the states of the subjects of information-psychological impact and the chart of transitions from state to state used in the cellular automaton algorithm. The suggested cellular automaton takes into account the effect of forgetting the information-psychological impact, as well as social and psychological parameters and probabilistic characteristics of the subjects of the social network. It therefore allows for the modelling of the diffusion of the information-psychological impact in the social network. The model can be used to determine the number of subjects affected by the information-psychological impact and the possibility of successful diffusion of the impact. The modelling of the suggested algorithm was performed. The results of the modelling are analysed in the paper.
{"title":"Modelling the Information-Psychological Impact in Social Networks","authors":"I. Goncharov, N. Goncharov, P. Parinov, S. Kochedykov, A. Dushkin","doi":"10.5772/intechopen.88252","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.88252","url":null,"abstract":"The paper considers the objects, subjects, purposes, tools, methods and implementation of information-psychological impact (IPI). It suggests a cellular automata model of the diffusion process of information-psychological impact in social networks, the hierarchy of the changes in the states of the subjects of information-psychological impact and the chart of transitions from state to state used in the cellular automaton algorithm. The suggested cellular automaton takes into account the effect of forgetting the information-psychological impact, as well as social and psychological parameters and probabilistic characteristics of the subjects of the social network. It therefore allows for the modelling of the diffusion of the information-psychological impact in the social network. The model can be used to determine the number of subjects affected by the information-psychological impact and the possibility of successful diffusion of the impact. The modelling of the suggested algorithm was performed. The results of the modelling are analysed in the paper.","PeriodicalId":184595,"journal":{"name":"Probability, Combinatorics and Control","volume":"60 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129617654","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-08-05DOI: 10.5772/INTECHOPEN.88233
N. Makhutov, M. Gadenin, Igor Alexandrovich Razumovskiy, S. V. Maslov, Dmitriy Olegovich Reznikov
At the solution of integrated tasks of strength, safe life and service safety maintenance for the nuclear power plants (NPP) equipment with slow reactors — water-moderated power reactors (WMPR) of VVER type and channel-type graphite-moderated power reactors (GMPR) of RBMK type arise necessity of physical and mathematical modeling of nonlinear processes of a deformation, fracture and damage at nonlinear probability statement. First of all, it concerns deriving determined, statistical and probabilistic characteristics of mechanical properties of reactor materials. Expectations and variation factors of mechanical properties ’ characteristics obtained from experimental researches are inducted into the equations for the verification calculations at determination of static and cyclic strength margins with the use of nominal and local stresses and strains. For the improved determined and probability analysis of these margins modeling experimental researches of stress-strain states of the analyzed equipment are conducted. Special attention at such tests is given to concentration factors and variation factors of loading conditions. The final stage of estimation of basic normative and verification calculation accuracy at laboratory, modeling and test bench researches are full-scale pre-operational tests (cold-hot running-in) of pilot nuclear reactors with the use of the experimental mechanics methods. The conditions of safety service of the NPP equipment are estimated taking into account factors of reaching limiting states by criteria of risk of initiation of emergency situations.
{"title":"Probability Modeling Taking into Account Nonlinear Processes of a Deformation and Fracture for the Equipment of Nuclear Power Plants","authors":"N. Makhutov, M. Gadenin, Igor Alexandrovich Razumovskiy, S. V. Maslov, Dmitriy Olegovich Reznikov","doi":"10.5772/INTECHOPEN.88233","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5772/INTECHOPEN.88233","url":null,"abstract":"At the solution of integrated tasks of strength, safe life and service safety maintenance for the nuclear power plants (NPP) equipment with slow reactors — water-moderated power reactors (WMPR) of VVER type and channel-type graphite-moderated power reactors (GMPR) of RBMK type arise necessity of physical and mathematical modeling of nonlinear processes of a deformation, fracture and damage at nonlinear probability statement. First of all, it concerns deriving determined, statistical and probabilistic characteristics of mechanical properties of reactor materials. Expectations and variation factors of mechanical properties ’ characteristics obtained from experimental researches are inducted into the equations for the verification calculations at determination of static and cyclic strength margins with the use of nominal and local stresses and strains. For the improved determined and probability analysis of these margins modeling experimental researches of stress-strain states of the analyzed equipment are conducted. Special attention at such tests is given to concentration factors and variation factors of loading conditions. The final stage of estimation of basic normative and verification calculation accuracy at laboratory, modeling and test bench researches are full-scale pre-operational tests (cold-hot running-in) of pilot nuclear reactors with the use of the experimental mechanics methods. The conditions of safety service of the NPP equipment are estimated taking into account factors of reaching limiting states by criteria of risk of initiation of emergency situations.","PeriodicalId":184595,"journal":{"name":"Probability, Combinatorics and Control","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116495558","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-08-05DOI: 10.5772/INTECHOPEN.88306
N. Makhutov, Yury Petrenia, A. Lepikhin, V. Moskvichev, M. Gadenin, A. Tchernyaev
Large hydropower plants (HPPs) are categorized as critically and strategically important infrastructure facilities in industrialized countries. Therefore, the issues of ensuring HPPs safety are of paramount importance. In this chapter, the basic aspects of the safety analysis of HPPs, calculation and experimental substantiation of the strength, and resource and reliability of the main equipment are discussed. The scientific and technical measures to ensure safety of HPPs are presented. As a defining measure of safety, it is proposed to ensure the protection of HPPs from severe accidents and disasters according to risk criteria. The main provisions of the risk assessment are presented on the basis of a sequential analysis of loads, features of stress-strain states, characteristics of mechanical properties, and limit states of hydraulic equipment of HPPs. The issues of calculation and experimental evaluation of hydro turbine ’ s resource, which limit the safety of HPPs, are considered. The features of technical diagnosis of hydraulic turbines are considered; characteristic defects and damages are described. The main provisions of the estimated residual life of hydro turbines are presented. The results of the risk estimates of HPPs and hydro turbine resource are given.
{"title":"Laboratory, Bench, and Full-Scale Researches of Strength, Reliability, and Safety of High-Power Hydro Turbines","authors":"N. Makhutov, Yury Petrenia, A. Lepikhin, V. Moskvichev, M. Gadenin, A. Tchernyaev","doi":"10.5772/INTECHOPEN.88306","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5772/INTECHOPEN.88306","url":null,"abstract":"Large hydropower plants (HPPs) are categorized as critically and strategically important infrastructure facilities in industrialized countries. Therefore, the issues of ensuring HPPs safety are of paramount importance. In this chapter, the basic aspects of the safety analysis of HPPs, calculation and experimental substantiation of the strength, and resource and reliability of the main equipment are discussed. The scientific and technical measures to ensure safety of HPPs are presented. As a defining measure of safety, it is proposed to ensure the protection of HPPs from severe accidents and disasters according to risk criteria. The main provisions of the risk assessment are presented on the basis of a sequential analysis of loads, features of stress-strain states, characteristics of mechanical properties, and limit states of hydraulic equipment of HPPs. The issues of calculation and experimental evaluation of hydro turbine ’ s resource, which limit the safety of HPPs, are considered. The features of technical diagnosis of hydraulic turbines are considered; characteristic defects and damages are described. The main provisions of the estimated residual life of hydro turbines are presented. The results of the risk estimates of HPPs and hydro turbine resource are given.","PeriodicalId":184595,"journal":{"name":"Probability, Combinatorics and Control","volume":"77 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123242145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-07-15DOI: 10.5772/INTECHOPEN.88025
I. Sinitsyn, A. Shalamov
Theoretical propositions of new probabilistic methodology of analysis, modeling, estimation and control in stochastic organizational-technical-economic systems (OTES) based on stochastic CALS informational technologies are considered. Stochastic integrated logistic support (ILS) of OTES modeling life cycle (LC), stochastic optimal of current state estimation in stochastic media defined by internal and external noises (including specially organized OTES-NS (noise support) and stochastic OTES optimal control) according to social-technical-economic-support criteria in real time by informational-analytical tools (IAT) of global type are presented. OTES-CALS are nonlinear and continuous-discrete. So we use approximate methods of normal approximation of probabilistic densities both for modeling and estimation. Spectrum of possibilities may be broaden by solving problems of OTES-CALS integration for existing markets of finances, goods and services. Analytical modeling, analysis, parametric optimization and optimal stochastic processes regulation in limits of illustrate some technologies and IAT given plans.
{"title":"Probabilistic Modeling, Estimation and Control for CALS Organization-Technical-Economic Systems","authors":"I. Sinitsyn, A. Shalamov","doi":"10.5772/INTECHOPEN.88025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5772/INTECHOPEN.88025","url":null,"abstract":"Theoretical propositions of new probabilistic methodology of analysis, modeling, estimation and control in stochastic organizational-technical-economic systems (OTES) based on stochastic CALS informational technologies are considered. Stochastic integrated logistic support (ILS) of OTES modeling life cycle (LC), stochastic optimal of current state estimation in stochastic media defined by internal and external noises (including specially organized OTES-NS (noise support) and stochastic OTES optimal control) according to social-technical-economic-support criteria in real time by informational-analytical tools (IAT) of global type are presented. OTES-CALS are nonlinear and continuous-discrete. So we use approximate methods of normal approximation of probabilistic densities both for modeling and estimation. Spectrum of possibilities may be broaden by solving problems of OTES-CALS integration for existing markets of finances, goods and services. Analytical modeling, analysis, parametric optimization and optimal stochastic processes regulation in limits of illustrate some technologies and IAT given plans.","PeriodicalId":184595,"journal":{"name":"Probability, Combinatorics and Control","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117118402","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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