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Paradigm Shift in Engineering Design Precipitated by the Advent of Miniaturized Systems 小型化系统的出现促成了工程设计的范式转变
Pub Date : 2000-11-05 DOI: 10.1115/imece2000-1170
W. Nakayama
The issues involved in the design of miniaturized systems are reviewed. In several respects the design of miniaturized systems requires departure from traditional engineering design. The design has to cope with a host of uncertainties simultaneously. The sources of uncertainties are all associated with reduced physical size of components and systems. A methodology is proposed in that the knowledge base is developed well in advance of actual design work, and a fast-to-use design code is made ready by the time the design work starts. For the knowledge base development conventional numerical simulation tools are applied to ‘template models’.
回顾了小型化系统设计中涉及的问题。在一些方面,小型化系统的设计需要与传统的工程设计相背离。设计必须同时处理许多不确定因素。不确定性的来源都与部件和系统的物理尺寸减小有关。提出了在实际设计工作之前充分开发知识库,并在设计工作开始时准备好快速使用的设计代码的方法。对于知识库的开发,传统的数值模拟工具应用于“模板模型”。
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引用次数: 0
Managing Product Complexity and Working Capital Risk Using Buyer Behavior and Hedge Packaging 使用买方行为和对冲包装管理产品复杂性和营运资金风险
Pub Date : 2000-11-05 DOI: 10.1115/imece2000-1184
G. Mitchell, Erika Wikstrom, Joseph Belcastro
A manufacturing firm creates share-holder value by consistently earning a return on invested capital (ROIC) that exceeds its cost of capital (COC) (Copeland et al, 1995). The amount of value created is impacted directly by the amount of capital invested, highlighting the importance of effective capital allocation. Firms can add significant value through creative ways of balancing customer requirements and working capital needs. This paper describes a generic methodology that uses customer-buying behavior to construct product offerings that minimize working capital risk without impacting service performance. The methodology is specifically applied in an environment where product and option offerings can result in thousands of final product configurations. In these complex manufacturing environments, high-velocity product configurations and option packages are used to create hedge packages (a form of dynamic safety stock) of components with longer lead times than market requirements for finished product delivery. In many cases, the lead times of very complex and costly components can exceed customer delivery requirements by a factor of 10. For example, customers may expect delivery of final products within one week, yet key components of the finished product may require ten or more weeks of lead-time. Further exacerbating the situation are the realities that the longest lead items are by nature very complex and costly, and sales forecasting is very difficult. If inventory is managed too aggressively, part shortages, frequent un-planning or rescheduling messages to vendors, late deliveries, poor service reliability, and lost revenues are typical results. This paper describes a fact-based and market-based methodology to hedge the forecast of key product components and achieve the correct balance between working capital and service requirements. Central to the process is the use of the “Affinity Analysis” tool. This tool is used to process large arrays of product configuration data with the objective of recognizing significant affinities between elements. In an automobile example, when a customer purchases a manual transmission how often do they also choose sport suspension? Knowledge of all of the high-correlation or high-affinity product selections or options can be exploited in the material requirements planning process without having to individually forecast the usage of all options. Forecasting at the individual option level is very difficult and rarely correct. The knowledge of key component affinities facilitates the creation of high-velocity product configurations and option packages that maximize revenue and minimize working capital and manufacturing complexity. The paper includes a description of the affinity analysis tool, the input and output files, how the tool is used, and how the high-velocity and hedge packages are created. Furthermore, the reader is provided with a sample application of the methodology in a complex heavy-equipmen
制造企业通过持续赚取超过其资本成本(COC)的投资资本回报率(ROIC)来创造股东价值(Copeland et al, 1995)。创造价值的多少直接受到投入资本的多少的影响,这就突出了有效的资本配置的重要性。企业可以通过平衡客户需求和营运资金需求的创造性方法来增加显著的价值。本文描述了一种通用的方法,该方法使用客户购买行为来构建产品,从而在不影响服务绩效的情况下将营运资金风险降至最低。该方法特别适用于产品和选项提供可能导致数千种最终产品配置的环境。在这些复杂的制造环境中,高速产品配置和选项包用于创建组件的对冲包(动态安全库存的一种形式),其交货时间长于成品交付的市场要求。在许多情况下,非常复杂和昂贵的组件的交付时间可能超过客户交付需求的10倍。例如,客户可能期望在一周内交付最终产品,但最终产品的关键组件可能需要十周或更长时间的交付时间。使情况进一步恶化的现实是,最长的产品本质上非常复杂和昂贵,而且销售预测非常困难。如果库存管理过于激进,通常会导致零件短缺、频繁的向供应商发送未计划或重新安排的消息、延迟交付、服务可靠性差以及收入损失。本文描述了一种基于事实和市场的方法来对冲关键产品组件的预测,并在营运资金和服务需求之间实现正确的平衡。该过程的核心是“亲和分析”工具的使用。该工具用于处理大型产品配置数据阵列,目的是识别元素之间的重要亲和力。以汽车为例,当客户购买手动变速器时,他们选择运动悬架的频率是多少?所有高相关性或高亲和性的产品选择或选项的知识可以在材料需求计划过程中得到利用,而不必单独预测所有选项的使用情况。在单个期权层面进行预测是非常困难的,而且很少是正确的。对关键组件亲缘关系的了解有助于创建高速产品配置和选项包,从而最大化收入,最小化营运资本和制造复杂性。本文包括亲和力分析工具的描述,输入和输出文件,如何使用工具,以及如何创建高速和对冲包。此外,读者提供了一个样本应用的方法在一个复杂的重型设备制造环境。
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引用次数: 0
Trends in the Energy and Engineering Industry From a Nuclear Power Perspective 从核能的角度看能源与工程工业的发展趋势
Pub Date : 2000-11-05 DOI: 10.1115/imece2000-1175
James H. Nordahl
The purpose of this paper will be to discuss the role of nuclear power in world energy production during the 21st century. Nuclear power is currently a significant source of the global electricity supply, providing approximately 16% of the world’s electricity, and world consumption of nuclear power is continuing to grow. Worldwide nuclear capacity is projected to increase from 349 gigawatts (in 1998) to 368 gigawatts in 2010. Much of this near-term increase in nuclear capacity is due to aggressive plans for nuclear capacity expansion in Asia. Longer term high growth projections for nuclear power include assumptions of limited reactor aging effects, with more reactors operating after license renewals. In early 2000, the USNRC issued the first license renewals for nuclear power plants, for a 20 year extension beyond the expiration of the initial license term. In addition, utilities have already notified the USNRC of plans to submit renewal applications for more than 20 units by 2003. License renewal is expected to be an attractive option for companies as the most inexpensive means of future electricity generation. Another factor pointing towards the positive prospects for nuclear power in the future are the substantial improvements seen in plant safety, reliability and output over the last two decades. Due to improved management practices, higher reliability and output, and shorter refueling outages, the average production cost of US nuclear power plants has steadily decreased over the last five years. Based solely on economic factors, most US nuclear units should be able to compete in a competitive electricity market. Many additional factors point to nuclear power as an energy source which will become increasingly important in the 21st century. These factors include environmental considerations such as carbon emissions from fossil fuels, reduced waste quantities produced by nuclear power, and the security of supply of uranium reserves.
本文的目的是讨论核能在21世纪世界能源生产中的作用。核电目前是全球电力供应的重要来源,提供了约16%的世界电力,世界核电消费仍在继续增长。全球核电装机容量预计将从1998年的349吉瓦增加到2010年的368吉瓦。近期核电装机容量的增长在很大程度上要归功于亚洲积极的核电装机扩张计划。核电的长期高增长预测包括了反应堆老化效应有限的假设,即更多的反应堆在许可证更新后运行。2000年初,美国核管理委员会(USNRC)首次为核电站颁发了许可证续期,在最初的许可证期限届满后再延长20年。此外,公用事业公司已经通知美国核管理委员会,计划在2003年之前提交20多个机组的更新申请。作为未来最廉价的发电方式,许可证更新预计将成为企业的一个有吸引力的选择。另一个表明核能在未来有积极前景的因素是,在过去二十年中,核电厂的安全性、可靠性和产量都有了显著改善。由于改进了管理措施,提高了可靠性和产量,缩短了换料中断时间,美国核电站的平均生产成本在过去五年中稳步下降。仅从经济因素来看,大多数美国核电机组应该能够在竞争激烈的电力市场上竞争。许多其他因素表明,核能作为一种能源在21世纪将变得越来越重要。这些因素包括环境方面的考虑,如化石燃料的碳排放、核能产生的废物数量减少以及铀储量供应的安全。
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引用次数: 0
New Paradigms for Sustainable Society and Industries: Technology Conversion From One Way to Circulation 可持续社会与产业的新范式:从单向到循环的技术转换
Pub Date : 2000-11-05 DOI: 10.1115/imece2000-1169
Yasuo Hamada, Hiroshi Honda
In January 1998, the Vostok project team, under the collaboration between American, Russian and French scientists, discovered and mined an underground ice core of 3,623m deep in the East Antarcitica.1) As a result of the study on this ice core, the climate conditions of the earth for the past four hundred and twenty thousand years came out clearly, as if it were recorded on a magnetic tape, as shown in Figure 1. It can be seen that the data on concentration of CO2, CH4 and temperature among others for this period signal a warning for future activities of the entire humankind of the earth.1)
1998年1月,“东方号”项目组在美、俄、法三国科学家的合作下,在东南极洲发现并开采了一个深3623米的地下冰芯。1)通过对这个冰芯的研究,地球过去42万年的气候状况就像磁带一样清晰地记录了下来,如图1所示。可以看出,这一时期的二氧化碳、甲烷浓度和温度等数据对地球上全人类未来的活动发出了警告。
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引用次数: 0
Mitigating Environmental and Occupational Health Concerns for the Electronic Demanufacturing Industry 减轻电子拆解工业的环境和职业健康问题
Pub Date : 2000-11-05 DOI: 10.1115/imece2000-1186
Luann B. Gibson
There are numerous aspects of the electronics demanufacturing industry that may be scrutinized by Occupational Safety and Health regulators. In older computer equipment, there may be materials that have since been banned from use in industry, such as PCBs. Workers disassembling electronic equipment need to be able to recognize components containing this hazardous material. Disassemblers are also exposed to lifting and cutting hazards in their activities. Those who shred or grind their electronics may be exposed to particulated heavy metals or silica, as well as dangerous levels of noise. When electronic components are removed from circuit boards, melting the solder will release lead fumes that must be properly ventilated. Recent and pending changes in OSHA requirements will affect electronics demanufacturers. Forklift standards were revised March 1, 1999, silica exposure limits may soon be reduced, and an ergonomics standard is pending. Universal and waste must be properly handled and stored in ways that comply with regulations and protect the safety and health of the workers. As a new but growing industry, electronics demanufacturers and recylers must remain aware of potential errors that could cost tens of thousands of dollars in OSHA fines or workers’ compensation claims.
电子产品拆解行业的许多方面都可能受到职业安全和健康监管机构的审查。在较旧的计算机设备中,可能有一些材料已经被禁止在工业中使用,比如多氯联苯。拆卸电子设备的工人需要能够识别含有这种有害物质的部件。拆装工在工作中也会遇到升降和切割的危险。那些粉碎或研磨电子产品的人可能会接触到重金属颗粒或二氧化硅,以及危险的噪音。当电子元件从电路板上取下时,熔化焊料会释放铅烟雾,必须适当通风。OSHA要求最近和即将发生的变化将影响电子产品制造商。叉车标准于1999年3月1日修订,二氧化硅暴露限值可能很快就会降低,并且人体工程学标准正在等待。必须以符合规定和保护工人安全和健康的方式妥善处理和储存垃圾和废物。作为一个新兴但不断发展的行业,电子产品的拆解制造商和回收商必须时刻意识到潜在的错误,这些错误可能导致OSHA罚款数万美元或工人赔偿索赔。
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引用次数: 0
Florida’s Strategy for the Management of End-of-Life Computers, CRTs and Other Electronic Equipment 佛罗里达州对报废计算机、crt和其他电子设备的管理策略
Pub Date : 2000-11-05 DOI: 10.1115/imece2000-1187
R. Clark
Recent estimates suggest that 160,000 computers will be discarded into Florida landfills in 1999, and that by 2005, this number could increase to 420,000 computers landfilled. Similarly, televisions discarded in Florida landfills may increase from 1,040,000 in 1999 to 1,200,000 in 2005. The cathode ray tubes (CRTs) in this equipment pose a major health concern, because of their lead content. Obviously, a well-planned strategy is required for managing discarded CRTs. The strategy proposed here includes (1) specifying the regulatory framework to allow CRTs to exit the hazardous waste stream in certain cases; (2) promoting the recycling infrastructure by reimbursing some costs with state funds; (3) evaluating collection strategies and other management options through pilot programs; and (4) developing a state electronics recycling contract, possibly like the state fluorescent lamp recycling contract.
最近的估计表明,1999年将有160,000台电脑被丢弃到佛罗里达州的垃圾填埋场,到2005年,这个数字可能会增加到420,000台。同样,佛罗里达州垃圾填埋场丢弃的电视机可能会从1999年的104万台增加到2005年的120万台。该设备中的阴极射线管(crt)由于其含铅量而引起主要的健康问题。显然,需要一个精心规划的策略来管理丢弃的crt。这里提出的策略包括:(1)指定监管框架,允许在某些情况下crt退出危险废物流;(2)利用国家资金报销部分费用,推进循环利用基础设施建设;(3)通过试点项目评估收集策略和其他管理方案;(4)制定国家电子产品回收合同,可以像国家荧光灯回收合同一样。
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引用次数: 0
New Paradigms in Electronics Cooling Engineering 电子冷却工程新范式
Pub Date : 2000-11-05 DOI: 10.1115/imece2000-1179
D. Copeland
As targets for future growth of aluminum products, we sees greatest opportunity in the three areas of automotive, energy and electronics. Within electronics, uses of aluminum include capacitor materials, magnetic disk substrates, printer/copier drums, and heatsinks. Of the first three areas, other materials may soon replace aluminum. In heatsinks, the high thermal conductivity, low density and low material cost of aluminum preclued serious competition from other materials. Cooling technology for modern servers, workstations and desktop computers has just begun a period of rapid change. As processor powers approach 100 watts, longstanding limits on air cooling are being challenged. The most recent changes are in the heatsinks themselves, as the longstanding manufacturing process of extruding is no longer capable of meeting new performance requirements. Skiving and folded fins, both established manufacturing technologies which can provide much finer features than extruding, are leading candidates for mass production of the new generation of heatsinks. This study focuses on the history of evolution of an effective organization for bringing the new heatsink technologies to market, concentrating on development of a start-up unit within a large metals company and a host of relationships, both technical and business, outside the company. Metals companies have long been accustomed to the necessity of constant innovation. In Japan, which has negligible ore resources, all value added is found in processing and uniqueness of the product. As metals companies have made the transition from a supplier of various aluminum alloys in traditional form factors (rod, sheet, foil, etc.) to custom made-to-order products, the next transformation has begun. Heatsinks fall into the vague category of a semi-custom product — each customer has almost the same requirements, with slightly different exceptions to a standard part. Additionally, a product lifetime may be measured in months rather than years. The computer market is dominated by large players but the size distribution tails off very slowly. 51% of the market is held by 6 companies, the largest with 14%. The remaining 49% features a wide distribution of market share and technical capabilities. This results in some customers with large staffs specializing in cooling technology, others with a small number (sometimes 1) of multidisciplinary mechanical/thermal engineers, and others with no engineering staff other than system integrators. In order to address this wide and rapidly moving market, we have made alliances with makers of other electronics cooling components (fans, plastic housings, thermal interface materials), jointly developed products with computer and processor makers, and co-sponsored university research. This year (2000) saw a large-scale entry into the Gigahertz processor cooling market, with a focus on high level visibility at technical conferences and trade shows. As thermal concerns move from a
作为铝产品未来增长的目标,我们认为汽车、能源和电子三个领域的机会最大。在电子产品中,铝的用途包括电容器材料,磁盘基板,打印机/复印机鼓和散热器。在前三个领域中,其他材料可能很快就会取代铝。在散热器方面,铝的高导热性、低密度和低材料成本阻碍了与其他材料的激烈竞争。用于现代服务器、工作站和台式电脑的冷却技术刚刚开始了一个快速变革的时期。随着处理器功率接近100瓦,长期以来对空气冷却的限制正在受到挑战。最近的变化是在散热器本身,因为长期的挤压制造工艺不再能够满足新的性能要求。剥落和折叠翅片,这两种成熟的制造技术都可以提供比挤压更精细的特性,是大规模生产新一代散热器的主要候选产品。本研究的重点是将新的散热器技术推向市场的有效组织的演变历史,重点是大型金属公司内部初创单位的发展以及公司外部技术和业务的一系列关系。金属公司早就习惯了不断创新的必要性。在矿石资源微不足道的日本,所有的附加值都体现在加工和产品的独特性上。随着金属公司从传统形式(棒材、板材、铝箔等)的各种铝合金供应商转型为定制产品,下一个转型已经开始。散热器属于半定制产品的模糊类别-每个客户都有几乎相同的要求,只有标准部件略有不同。此外,产品寿命可能以月而不是年来衡量。电脑市场由大型厂商主导,但规模分布缓慢下降。51%的市场份额由6家公司持有,最大的占14%。剩下的49%具有广泛的市场份额和技术能力。这导致一些客户拥有大量专门从事冷却技术的员工,另一些客户拥有少量(有时只有1名)多学科机械/热工程师,还有一些客户除了系统集成商之外没有任何工程人员。为了应对这个广阔而快速发展的市场,我们与其他电子冷却部件(风扇、塑料外壳、热界面材料)的制造商结盟,与计算机和处理器制造商联合开发产品,并共同赞助大学研究。今年(2000年),大规模进入千兆赫处理器冷却市场,重点是在技术会议和贸易展览上的高水平知名度。随着热问题从设计周期的最后一步转移到初始考虑,教育客户关于新散热器技术的潜在贡献已成为我们技术营销活动的主要努力。
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引用次数: 0
U.S. Patent/Intellectual Property Law: What Should Engineers Know? 美国专利/知识产权法:工程师应该了解什么?
Pub Date : 2000-11-05 DOI: 10.1115/imece2000-1190
Jeff E. Schwartz, Richard T. Girards, Karen A. Borrelli
Engineers, by the practice of their profession, regularly apply new methods and products to the end of solving old problems. These new methods and products may prove to be both commercially useful and financially valuable. The U.S. intellectual property system can afford such innovations broad protection from old fashioned “poaching” by securing for their creators/inventors powerful legal rights to such innovations.
工程师,通过他们的专业实践,经常应用新的方法和产品来解决老问题。这些新方法和新产品可能具有商业价值和经济价值。美国的知识产权制度可以为这些创新提供广泛的保护,使其免受老式的“偷猎”,为这些创新的创造者/发明者提供强有力的法律权利。
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引用次数: 0
Decision Support Tools for Managing Unpredictability in the Supply Chain 管理供应链中不可预测性的决策支持工具
Pub Date : 2000-11-05 DOI: 10.1115/imece2000-1183
C. Vesier
Effectively managing unpredictability requires decision support tools that can predict the financial and business outcomes of various supply chain strategies. This paper will discuss the role of these decision support tools and their characteristics as well as review a case study. In the case study, decision support tools facilitated development of strategies that increased after tax profit by $140 Million. These strategies included: • Reliability improvement strategy: Identifying the reliability improvements that offered the biggest profitability impact. • Supply chain strategy: Defining inventory management and production scheduling rules that ensured order shipment within two days. • Capital investment strategy: Defining when new capacity should come on line as well as the minimum capital investment.
有效地管理不可预测性需要决策支持工具,可以预测各种供应链战略的财务和业务结果。本文将讨论这些决策支持工具的作用及其特点,并回顾一个案例研究。在案例研究中,决策支持工具促进了战略的制定,使税后利润增加了1.4亿美元。这些策略包括:•可靠性改进策略:确定对盈利能力影响最大的可靠性改进。•供应链策略:定义库存管理和生产调度规则,确保订单在两天内发货。•资本投资策略:确定新产能上线的时间以及最低资本投资。
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引用次数: 0
Successfully Managing the Risk and Development of Your Business and Technology in the Global Economy 在全球经济中成功地管理风险和发展您的业务和技术
Pub Date : 2000-11-05 DOI: 10.1115/imece2000-1180
Hiroshi Honda
National and regional economies have become increasingly bound to a global economy with the availability of advanced communication, information and transportation technologies among others, while the advancement of science and technology in general has served as a driving engine for economic and industrial development of local and national economies, and subsequently for those of regional and global economies with substantial time lags in the past millennium. The globalization has given a significant impact on each society by accelerating instant and/or speedy flows of information, money, commodity, energy and human beings, and thus has provided increasingly equal opportunities to societies around the globe for the development of business and technology. Nevertheless, characteristics and specific boundary conditions of local areas, nations and regions still characterize the business and technological opportunities for specific communities. The global constraints such as limitation in natural resources and energy, and the global environmental issues have driven human beings to challenge a huge task for the new and renewable energy development, environmental protection, and development and utilization of space and other frontiers such as deep underground and deep seas, on a global scale of competition and cooperation. Under these circumstances, we will need to manage the risk and development of our business and technology increasingly from global perspectives, with due consideration on the global constraints and specific characteristics of the focused local societies. This paper is intended to set scene and raise issues for discussion at the subject symposium of ours.
随着先进的通信、信息和运输技术等的出现,国家和区域经济日益与全球经济联系在一起,而科学和技术的进步总体上已成为地方和国家经济的经济和工业发展的驱动引擎,随后也为过去一千年中存在大量时间滞后的区域和全球经济提供了动力。全球化通过加速信息、资金、商品、能源和人类的即时和/或快速流动,对每个社会都产生了重大影响,从而为全球社会的商业和技术发展提供了越来越平等的机会。然而,地方、国家和地区的特点和特定的边界条件仍然是特定社区的商业和技术机会的特征。自然资源和能源的有限性、全球性的环境问题等全球性的制约因素,促使人类在全球范围内的竞争与合作中,对新能源和可再生能源的开发、环境保护、空间和其他前沿领域如地下深处和深海的开发利用提出了巨大的挑战。在这种情况下,我们需要越来越多地从全球的角度来管理我们的业务和科技的风险和发展,并适当考虑全球的制约因素和重点关注的当地社会的具体特点。本文旨在为我们的专题研讨会设定场景并提出讨论问题。
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引用次数: 0
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Successfully Managing the Risk and Development of Your Business and Technology
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