Low world crude oil prices have resulted in scaling back oil production on high-cost oil deposits and in contraction of investment in the development of unconventional deposits. At the same time, reduction of crude oil extraction from the cost-intensive deposits, first of all, in the US, is offset by the built up production by leading OPEC countries who strive to increase their market share. In 2016, Iran and Saudi Arabia have significantly raised their crude oil output. Russia has also built up production, which hit all-time high since 1990. In 2017, one should expect relatively low oil prices to remain. At the same time, some growth is feasible in comparison with the current year.
{"title":"Oil Market: low prices retained","authors":"Yuri Bobylev","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2889453","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2889453","url":null,"abstract":"Low world crude oil prices have resulted in scaling back oil production on high-cost oil deposits and in contraction of investment in the development of unconventional deposits. At the same time, reduction of crude oil extraction from the cost-intensive deposits, first of all, in the US, is offset by the built up production by leading OPEC countries who strive to increase their market share. In 2016, Iran and Saudi Arabia have significantly raised their crude oil output. Russia has also built up production, which hit all-time high since 1990. In 2017, one should expect relatively low oil prices to remain. At the same time, some growth is feasible in comparison with the current year.","PeriodicalId":187667,"journal":{"name":"Russian Economic Developments","volume":"72 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130604425","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Findings of survey report released by the Institute of Social Analysis and Forecast (RANEPA) demonstrate a reduced drama cs of the economic situation in the country and reduced duration of the crisis. However, negative expectations are still strong first of all in the sphere of employment. Consumption activity still remains depressed.
{"title":"Population's Social Sentiment and Risks of Falling Living Standards","authors":"E. Avraamova, D. Loginov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2874895","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2874895","url":null,"abstract":"Findings of survey report released by the Institute of Social Analysis and Forecast (RANEPA) demonstrate a reduced drama cs of the economic situation in the country and reduced duration of the crisis. However, negative expectations are still strong first of all in the sphere of employment. Consumption activity still remains depressed.","PeriodicalId":187667,"journal":{"name":"Russian Economic Developments","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114697492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In May–June 2016, there was an insignificant growth of regional revenues together with restraint of spending growth, which resulted in contraction of regions’ public debt. Moreover, tight commercial loans were partially replaced by the budget loans. In the meantime, overall low income growth rates commenced since the turn of the year and restrictions on borrowings will not allow regions to achieve positive growth rates of budget spending in real terms and, thus, depart from the austerity policy.
{"title":"Regional Budgets: Debt Reductions Amid Austerity","authors":"A. Deryugin","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2841179","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2841179","url":null,"abstract":"In May–June 2016, there was an insignificant growth of regional revenues together with restraint of spending growth, which resulted in contraction of regions’ public debt. Moreover, tight commercial loans were partially replaced by the budget loans. In the meantime, overall low income growth rates commenced since the turn of the year and restrictions on borrowings will not allow regions to achieve positive growth rates of budget spending in real terms and, thus, depart from the austerity policy.","PeriodicalId":187667,"journal":{"name":"Russian Economic Developments","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122333911","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In May 2016, households’ real disposable cash income, real wages and the real size of granted pensions decreased as compared to the respective period of the previous year. In Q1 2015, the poverty rate amounted to 15.7%, having fallen somewhat as compared to the same period of the previous year which situation is related to a dramatic reduction of prices on a number of food products included in the consumer goods basket. In H1 2016, consumer prices rose by 7.8% as compared to the respective period of 2015, having virtually returned to moderate values after a 16% surge in H1 2015. With further reduction of the rate of inflation, the poverty rate may fall this year. At the same time, the number of overdue mortgage loans and the volume of overdue mortgage debt are growing. Credit burden is particularly high among households with children.
{"title":"Income, Poverty and Prices: Trends of 2016","authors":"A. Burdyak, E. Grishina","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2841180","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2841180","url":null,"abstract":"In May 2016, households’ real disposable cash income, real wages and the real size of granted pensions decreased as compared to the respective period of the previous year. In Q1 2015, the poverty rate amounted to 15.7%, having fallen somewhat as compared to the same period of the previous year which situation is related to a dramatic reduction of prices on a number of food products included in the consumer goods basket. In H1 2016, consumer prices rose by 7.8% as compared to the respective period of 2015, having virtually returned to moderate values after a 16% surge in H1 2015. With further reduction of the rate of inflation, the poverty rate may fall this year. At the same time, the number of overdue mortgage loans and the volume of overdue mortgage debt are growing. Credit burden is particularly high among households with children.","PeriodicalId":187667,"journal":{"name":"Russian Economic Developments","volume":"72 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122597911","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Target indicators of the Military-Industrial Complex Development, a state program approved in May 2016 can hardly be regarded to be in compliance with declared objectives of the country’s leadership and the Military-Industrial Commission in terms of diversification and defense conversion. The program’s main objective is quantitative growth and not development targets. The total number of state programs for the military-industrial complex (MIC) is excessive and something is to be done about it to improve the situation.
{"title":"The Specifics of the New State Program of Development of the Military-Industrial Complex","authors":"V. Zatsepin","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2841178","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2841178","url":null,"abstract":"Target indicators of the Military-Industrial Complex Development, a state program approved in May 2016 can hardly be regarded to be in compliance with declared objectives of the country’s leadership and the Military-Industrial Commission in terms of diversification and defense conversion. The program’s main objective is quantitative growth and not development targets. The total number of state programs for the military-industrial complex (MIC) is excessive and something is to be done about it to improve the situation.","PeriodicalId":187667,"journal":{"name":"Russian Economic Developments","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128437794","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Net migration has been contracting. Resource for long-term migration including internal one has run dry. At the same time, the number of foreign nationals temporarily staying on the territory of Russia is falling. Although reasons for these processes differ –in the first instance, the question is partly about static effect and in the second –most likely about tightening migration legislation. On the whole, one may talk about the fact that migration stops contributing seriously to the demographic situation and to the labor market.
{"title":"RESOURCES OF MIGRATION GROWTH HAVE RUN DRY","authors":"F. Yulia, N. Mkrtchian","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2781860","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2781860","url":null,"abstract":"Net migration has been contracting. Resource for long-term migration including internal one has run dry. At the same time, the number of foreign nationals temporarily staying on the territory of Russia is falling. Although reasons for these processes differ –in the first instance, the question is partly about static effect and in the second –most likely about tightening migration legislation. On the whole, one may talk about the fact that migration stops contributing seriously to the demographic situation and to the labor market.","PeriodicalId":187667,"journal":{"name":"Russian Economic Developments","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123948278","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The situation in the agriculture and with food supplies can be characterized by a number of trends: • there is high food inflation in Russia for the fourth time in the past ten years; its level does not exceed so far the indices of 2007, 2008 and 2010; • reduction of households’ real income resulted in a decrease in demand on food; stable trend of reduction of retail trade physical volumes is observed; • the agriculture has reacted to changes in the market situation: output volumes of both export-orientated production (grain and oil-yielding crop) and import-substituted products (sugar beet instead of sugar-cane), as well as supplies of buckwheat, potatoes and vegetables have increased; However, from April 2015 growth rates of the agriculture happened to be below the 2014 level; • reduction of the volumes of the import of food in foreign currency did not result in reduction of its ruble equivalent as a whole. The above factor is indirect evidence of the fact that households keep spending a similar amount of funds as in the previous year on purchasing of a smaller quantity of import products. However, as regards dairy products, there is a reduction of the import both in volumes and in monetary (foreign currency and ruble) terms which situation could create conditions for import substitution. Below, the nuances of that process are considered.
{"title":"The Agriculture and Food: Does Import Substitution Take Place?","authors":"N. Shagaida, V. Uzun","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2701386","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2701386","url":null,"abstract":"The situation in the agriculture and with food supplies can be characterized by a number of trends: • there is high food inflation in Russia for the fourth time in the past ten years; its level does not exceed so far the indices of 2007, 2008 and 2010; • reduction of households’ real income resulted in a decrease in demand on food; stable trend of reduction of retail trade physical volumes is observed; • the agriculture has reacted to changes in the market situation: output volumes of both export-orientated production (grain and oil-yielding crop) and import-substituted products (sugar beet instead of sugar-cane), as well as supplies of buckwheat, potatoes and vegetables have increased; However, from April 2015 growth rates of the agriculture happened to be below the 2014 level; • reduction of the volumes of the import of food in foreign currency did not result in reduction of its ruble equivalent as a whole. The above factor is indirect evidence of the fact that households keep spending a similar amount of funds as in the previous year on purchasing of a smaller quantity of import products. However, as regards dairy products, there is a reduction of the import both in volumes and in monetary (foreign currency and ruble) terms which situation could create conditions for import substitution. Below, the nuances of that process are considered.","PeriodicalId":187667,"journal":{"name":"Russian Economic Developments","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130424635","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
On the basis of the results of the first eight months of 2015, it can be concluded that industries where growth in domestic output is observed simultaneously with a drop in competitive import are the agriculture and the food industry. At the same time, substitution of consumption of investment goods – from foreign ones to domestic ones – does not take place: a decline in economic activities is accompanied by a drop both in domestic production and import. Volatility of the national currency (some appreciation of the national currency in April–May followed by depreciation to the level of February–March in July-August) did not have a significant effect either on the dynamics of export or that of import: participants in foreign economic activities did not start to change their business decisions in response to short-term appreciation or weakening of the exchange rate of the national currency. It is to be noted that growth in the export of the non-primary sector either in monetary or physical terms did not take place, either. An insignificant increase in physical volumes of the export was observed only in groups of commodities with a low- and mid-level of processing (non-diversified ones).
{"title":"Foreign trade and production in 2015: change of geografy","authors":"A. Knobel","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2701358","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2701358","url":null,"abstract":"On the basis of the results of the first eight months of 2015, it can be concluded that industries where growth in domestic output is observed simultaneously with a drop in competitive import are the agriculture and the food industry. At the same time, substitution of consumption of investment goods – from foreign ones to domestic ones – does not take place: a decline in economic activities is accompanied by a drop both in domestic production and import. Volatility of the national currency (some appreciation of the national currency in April–May followed by depreciation to the level of February–March in July-August) did not have a significant effect either on the dynamics of export or that of import: participants in foreign economic activities did not start to change their business decisions in response to short-term appreciation or weakening of the exchange rate of the national currency. It is to be noted that growth in the export of the non-primary sector either in monetary or physical terms did not take place, either. An insignificant increase in physical volumes of the export was observed only in groups of commodities with a low- and mid-level of processing (non-diversified ones).","PeriodicalId":187667,"journal":{"name":"Russian Economic Developments","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130029501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The emergence of the concept of national ‘pull’ projects and the National Technology Initiative can be viewed as a manifestation of the ongoing process of setting various new priorities at the federal level. In this connection, a fundamentally new approach has been suggested in the framework of the National Technology Initiative, with the orientation towards more promising consumer markets where Russia will be able to fi ll appropriate niches due to the development of new technologies, as well as an adequate infrastructure and institutions necessary for their support.
{"title":"New Technology Priorities: A Reassessment of Opportunities","authors":"I. Dezhina","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2620679","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2620679","url":null,"abstract":"The emergence of the concept of national ‘pull’ projects and the National Technology Initiative can be viewed as a manifestation of the ongoing process of setting various new priorities at the federal level. In this connection, a fundamentally new approach has been suggested in the framework of the National Technology Initiative, with the orientation towards more promising consumer markets where Russia will be able to fi ll appropriate niches due to the development of new technologies, as well as an adequate infrastructure and institutions necessary for their support.","PeriodicalId":187667,"journal":{"name":"Russian Economic Developments","volume":"76 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126200053","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The political highlight in October became the mass ethnic riot in a Moscow’s uptown district of Birulyevo. The unrest proved the rise of ethnic problems in big cities. While the authorities met the rioters’ local claims (they found the killer and shut down the vegetable warehouse with a bunch of illegal migrants therein), no decision was made in the wake of the riot, and it was local authorities who were held responsible for it. Quite predictably, Mr. A. Navalny, an opposition politician, was not put behind the bars after hearing his case at the courts of appeal. However, he was deprived of an active electoral right and will now have to take a lot of pains to stake out his niche in the opposition politics where the electorate engaged in some projects easily flows to other ones. Despite Mr. V. Putin’s vows, the newly established Agency for Research Institutions will be led not by Mr. V. Fortov, the head of RAS, but by Deputy Finance Minister Mr. M. Kotyukov.
10月份的政治亮点是莫斯科上城区比鲁廖沃的大规模种族骚乱。骚乱证明了大城市种族问题的加剧。虽然当局满足了暴徒在当地的要求(他们找到了凶手，并关闭了里面有一群非法移民的蔬菜仓库)，但在骚乱发生后没有做出任何决定，地方当局对此负有责任。可以预见的是，反对派政治人物纳瓦尔尼在上诉法院审理案件后，没有被投入监狱。然而，他被剥夺了积极的选举权，现在他必须付出很大的努力，才能在参与某些项目的选民很容易流向其他项目的反对派政治中找到自己的位置。尽管普京做出了誓言，但新成立的俄罗斯研究机构局(Agency for Research Institutions)的领导将不是俄罗斯研究机构局局长v·福尔托夫，而是财政部副部长m·科图科夫(M. Kotyukov)。
{"title":"The Political and Economic Results of October 2013","authors":"S. Zhavoronkov","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2359367","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2359367","url":null,"abstract":"The political highlight in October became the mass ethnic riot in a Moscow’s uptown district of Birulyevo. The unrest proved the rise of ethnic problems in big cities. While the authorities met the rioters’ local claims (they found the killer and shut down the vegetable warehouse with a bunch of illegal migrants therein), no decision was made in the wake of the riot, and it was local authorities who were held responsible for it. Quite predictably, Mr. A. Navalny, an opposition politician, was not put behind the bars after hearing his case at the courts of appeal. However, he was deprived of an active electoral right and will now have to take a lot of pains to stake out his niche in the opposition politics where the electorate engaged in some projects easily flows to other ones. Despite Mr. V. Putin’s vows, the newly established Agency for Research Institutions will be led not by Mr. V. Fortov, the head of RAS, but by Deputy Finance Minister Mr. M. Kotyukov.","PeriodicalId":187667,"journal":{"name":"Russian Economic Developments","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127116619","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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