Pub Date : 2023-05-24DOI: 10.5194/nhess-23-1863-2023
Dirsa Feliciano, O. Arroyo, Tamara Cabrera, D. Contreras, Jairo Andrés Valcárcel Torres, Juan Camilo Gomez- Zapata
Abstract. Colombia is in one of the most active seismic zones on Earth, where the Nazca, Caribbean, and South American plates converge. Approximately 83 % of the national population lives in intermediate to high seismic hazard zones, and a significant part of the country's building inventory dates from before the nation's first seismic design code (1984). At present, seismic risk scenarios are available for the major cities of the country, but there is still a need to undertake such studies in other regions. This paper presents a seismic risk scenario for the Sabana Centro province, an intermediate hazard zone located close to the country's capital. An exposure model was created combining information from the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation, surveys, and the national census. Fragility and vulnerability curves were assigned to the building types of the region. A hazard model was developed for the region and 18 earthquake scenarios with a return period of 475 years were simulated using the OpenQuake (OQ) hazard and risk assessment tool to estimate damage and economic losses. In addition, a social vulnerability index (SVI) based on demographic information was used to assess the direct economic loss in terms of replacement costs. The results show that 10 % of all buildings considered in the region would experience collapse, and 7 % would suffer severe damage. Losses account for 14 % of the total replacement cost of the buildings and represent 21 % of the annual gross domestic product (GDP) of the region.
{"title":"Seismic risk scenarios for the residential buildings in the Sabana Centro province in Colombia","authors":"Dirsa Feliciano, O. Arroyo, Tamara Cabrera, D. Contreras, Jairo Andrés Valcárcel Torres, Juan Camilo Gomez- Zapata","doi":"10.5194/nhess-23-1863-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1863-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Colombia is in one of the most active seismic zones on\u0000Earth, where the Nazca, Caribbean, and South American plates converge.\u0000Approximately 83 % of the national population lives in intermediate to\u0000high seismic hazard zones, and a significant part of the country's building\u0000inventory dates from before the nation's first seismic design code (1984).\u0000At present, seismic risk scenarios are available for the major cities of the country, but there is still a need to undertake such studies in other\u0000regions. This paper presents a seismic risk scenario for the Sabana\u0000Centro province, an intermediate hazard zone located close to the\u0000country's capital. An exposure model was created combining information from\u0000the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation, surveys, and the national\u0000census. Fragility and vulnerability curves were assigned to the building\u0000types of the region. A hazard model was developed for the region and\u000018 earthquake scenarios with a return period of 475 years were\u0000simulated using the OpenQuake (OQ) hazard and risk assessment tool to\u0000estimate damage and economic losses. In addition, a social vulnerability\u0000index (SVI) based on demographic information was used to assess the direct\u0000economic loss in terms of replacement costs. The results show that 10 % of all buildings considered in the region would experience collapse, and 7 % would suffer severe damage. Losses account for 14 % of the total replacement cost of the buildings and represent 21 % of the annual gross domestic product (GDP) of the region.\u0000","PeriodicalId":18922,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2023-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46900794","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-22DOI: 10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023
J. Dullaart, S. Muis, H. de Moel, P. Ward, D. Eilander, J. Aerts
Abstract. Coastal flooding is driven by the combination of (high) tide and storm surge, the latter being caused by strong winds and low pressure in tropical and extratropical cyclones. The combination of storm surge and the astronomical tide is defined as the storm tide. To gain an understanding of the threat posed by coastal flooding and to identify areas that are especially at risk, now and in the future, it is crucial to accurately model coastal inundation. Most models used to simulate the coastal inundation scale follow a simple planar approach, referred to as bathtub models. The main limitations of this type of models are that they implicitly assume an infinite flood duration, and they do not capture relevant physical processes. In this study we develop a method to generate hydrographs called HGRAPHER, and we provide a global dataset of storm tide hydrographs based on time series of storm surges and tides derived from the Global Tide and Surge Model (GTSM) forced with the ERA5 reanalysis wind and pressure fields. These hydrographs represent the typical shape of an extreme storm tide at a certain location along the global coastline. We test the sensitivity of the HGRAPHER method with respect to two main assumptions that determine the shape of the hydrograph, namely the surge event sampling threshold and coincidence in the time of the surge and tide maxima. The hydrograph dataset can be used to move away from planar inundation modelling techniques towards dynamic inundation modelling techniques across different spatial scales.
{"title":"Enabling dynamic modelling of coastal flooding by defining storm tide hydrographs","authors":"J. Dullaart, S. Muis, H. de Moel, P. Ward, D. Eilander, J. Aerts","doi":"10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Coastal flooding is driven by the combination of (high) tide and storm\u0000surge, the latter being caused by strong winds and low pressure in tropical\u0000and extratropical cyclones. The combination of storm surge and the\u0000astronomical tide is defined as the storm tide. To gain an understanding of\u0000the threat posed by coastal flooding and to identify areas that are\u0000especially at risk, now and in the future, it is crucial to accurately model coastal inundation. Most models used to simulate the coastal inundation scale follow a simple planar approach, referred to as bathtub models. The main limitations of this type of models are that they implicitly assume an\u0000infinite flood duration, and they do not capture relevant physical processes.\u0000In this study we develop a method to generate hydrographs called HGRAPHER,\u0000and we provide a global dataset of storm tide hydrographs based on time series\u0000of storm surges and tides derived from the Global Tide and Surge Model\u0000(GTSM) forced with the ERA5 reanalysis wind and pressure fields. These\u0000hydrographs represent the typical shape of an extreme storm tide at a\u0000certain location along the global coastline. We test the sensitivity of the\u0000HGRAPHER method with respect to two main assumptions that determine the\u0000shape of the hydrograph, namely the surge event sampling threshold and\u0000coincidence in the time of the surge and tide maxima. The hydrograph dataset can be used to move away from planar inundation modelling techniques towards dynamic inundation modelling techniques across different spatial scales.\u0000","PeriodicalId":18922,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2023-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46417632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-15DOI: 10.5194/nhess-23-1805-2023
Andrea Antonucci, A. Rovida, V. D'Amico, D. Albarello
Abstract. A methodology to detect local incompleteness of macroseismic intensity data at the local scale is presented. In particular, the probability that undocumented effects actually occurred at a site is determined by considering intensity prediction equations (in their probabilistic form) integrated by observations relative to known events documented at surrounding sites. The outcomes of this analysis can be used to investigate how representative and known the seismic histories of localities are (i.e., the list of documented effects through time). The proposed approach is applied to the Italian area. The analysis shows that, at most of the considered sites, the effects of intensity ≥ 6 should most probably have occurred at least once, but they are not contained in the current version of the Italian macroseismic databases. In a few cases, instead, the lack of data may concern higher intensity levels (i.e., ≥ 8). The geographical distribution of potentially lost information reflects the heterogeneity of the seismic activity over the Italian territory.
{"title":"Looking for undocumented earthquake effects: a probabilistic analysis of Italian macroseismic data","authors":"Andrea Antonucci, A. Rovida, V. D'Amico, D. Albarello","doi":"10.5194/nhess-23-1805-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1805-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. A methodology to detect local incompleteness of\u0000macroseismic intensity data at the local scale is presented. In particular,\u0000the probability that undocumented effects actually occurred at a site is\u0000determined by considering intensity prediction equations (in their\u0000probabilistic form) integrated by observations relative to known events\u0000documented at surrounding sites. The outcomes of this analysis can be used\u0000to investigate how representative and known the seismic histories of\u0000localities are (i.e., the list of documented effects through time). The proposed approach is applied to the Italian area. The analysis shows that, at most of\u0000the considered sites, the effects of intensity ≥ 6 should most probably\u0000have occurred at least once, but they are not contained in the current\u0000version of the Italian macroseismic databases. In a few cases, instead, the\u0000lack of data may concern higher intensity levels (i.e., ≥ 8). The\u0000geographical distribution of potentially lost information reflects the\u0000heterogeneity of the seismic activity over the Italian territory.\u0000","PeriodicalId":18922,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2023-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42310594","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-15DOI: 10.5194/nhess-23-1835-2023
Y. Wen, Chu-Song Chen, S. Wen, Weifan Lu
Abstract. We investigate the temporal and spatial seismicity patterns prior to eight M > 6 events nucleating in different regions of Taiwan through a region–time–length algorithm and an analysis of a self-organizing spinodal model. Our results show that the spatiotemporal seismicity variations during the preparation process of impending earthquakes display distinctive patterns corresponding to tectonic settings. Q-type events occur in southern Taiwan and experience a seismic quiescence stage prior to the mainshock. A seismicity decrease of 2.5 < M < 4.5 events occurs around the relatively high b-value southern Central Range, which contributes to the accumulation of tectonic stress for preparing for the occurrence of the Q-type event. On the other hand, A-type events occur in central Taiwan and experience a seismic activation stage prior to the mainshock, which nucleates on the edge of the seismic activation area. We should pay attention when accelerating seismicity of 3 < M < 5 events appears within the low b-value area, which could promote the nucleation process of the A-type event.
摘要我们研究了eightM之前的时间和空间地震活动模式 > 通过区域-时间-长度算法和自组织旋量模型分析，6个事件在台湾不同地区成核。我们的研究结果表明，临震准备过程中的时空地震活动变化表现出与构造环境相对应的独特模式。Q型事件发生在台湾南部，在主震前经历了地震平静阶段。地震活动减少2.5 < M < 4.5事件发生在相对较高的b值中南山脉周围，这有助于构造应力的积累，为Q型事件的发生做准备。另一方面，A型地震发生在台湾中部，在主震之前经历地震激活阶段，主震在地震激活区边缘成核。加速3级地震活动时应注意 < M < 5个事件出现在低b值区域内，这可能促进A型事件的成核过程。
{"title":"Spatiotemporal seismicity pattern of the Taiwan orogen","authors":"Y. Wen, Chu-Song Chen, S. Wen, Weifan Lu","doi":"10.5194/nhess-23-1835-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1835-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. We investigate the temporal and spatial seismicity patterns prior to eight\u0000M > 6 events nucleating in different regions of Taiwan through a\u0000region–time–length algorithm and an analysis of a self-organizing spinodal\u0000model. Our results show that the spatiotemporal seismicity variations during the preparation process of impending earthquakes display distinctive\u0000patterns corresponding to tectonic settings. Q-type events occur in southern Taiwan and experience a seismic quiescence stage prior to the mainshock. A seismicity decrease of 2.5 < M < 4.5 events occurs around the relatively high b-value southern Central Range, which contributes to the accumulation of tectonic stress for preparing for the occurrence of the Q-type event. On the other hand, A-type events occur in central Taiwan and experience a seismic activation stage prior to the mainshock, which nucleates on the edge of the seismic activation area. We should pay attention when accelerating seismicity of 3 < M < 5 events appears within the low b-value area, which could promote the nucleation process of the A-type event.\u0000","PeriodicalId":18922,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2023-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44131532","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-15DOI: 10.5194/nhess-23-1817-2023
E. Andrée, Jian Su, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, M. Drews, M. Stendel, Kristine Skovgaard Madsen
Abstract. When natural hazards interact in compound events, they may reinforce each other. This is a concern today and in light of climate change. In the case of coastal flooding, sea-level variability due to tides, seasonal to inter-annual salinity and temperature variations, or larger–scale wind conditions modify the development and ramifications of extreme sea levels. Here, we explore how various prior conditions could have influenced peak water levels for the devastating coastal flooding event in the western Baltic Sea in 1872. We design numerical experiments by imposing a range of precondition circumstances as boundary conditions to numerical ocean model simulations. This allows us to quantify the changes in peak water levels that arise due to alternative preconditioning of the sea level before the storm surge. Our results show that certain preconditioning could have generated even more catastrophic impacts. As an example, a simulated increase in the water level of 36 cm compared to the 1872 event occurred in Køge just south of Copenhagen (Denmark) and surrounding areas – a region that was already severely impacted. The increased water levels caused by the alternative sea-level patterns propagate as long waves until encountering shallow and narrow straits, and after that, the effect vastly decreases. Adding artificial increases in wind speeds to each study point location reveals a near-linear relationship with peak water levels for all western Baltic locations, highlighting the need for good assessments of future wind extremes. Our research indicates that a more hybrid approach to analysing compound events and readjusting our present warning system to a more contextualised framework might provide a firmer foundation for climate adaptation and disaster risk management. In particular, accentuating the importance of compound preconditioning effects on the outcome of natural hazards may avoid under- or overestimation of the associated risks.
{"title":"The role of preconditioning for extreme storm surges in the western Baltic Sea","authors":"E. Andrée, Jian Su, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, M. Drews, M. Stendel, Kristine Skovgaard Madsen","doi":"10.5194/nhess-23-1817-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1817-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. When natural hazards interact in compound events, they may reinforce each other. This is a concern today and in light of climate change.\u0000In the case of coastal flooding, sea-level variability due to tides, seasonal to inter-annual salinity and temperature variations, or larger–scale wind conditions modify the development and ramifications of extreme sea levels. Here, we explore how various prior conditions could have influenced peak water levels for the devastating coastal flooding event in the western Baltic Sea in 1872. We design numerical experiments by imposing a range of precondition circumstances as boundary conditions to numerical ocean model simulations. This allows us to quantify the changes in peak water levels that arise due to alternative preconditioning of the sea level before the storm surge. Our results show that certain preconditioning could have generated even more catastrophic impacts. As an example, a simulated increase in the water level of 36 cm compared to the 1872 event occurred in Køge just south of Copenhagen (Denmark) and surrounding areas – a region that was already severely impacted. The increased water levels caused by the alternative sea-level patterns propagate as long waves until encountering shallow and narrow straits, and after that, the effect vastly decreases. Adding artificial increases in wind speeds to each study point location reveals a near-linear relationship with peak water levels for all western Baltic locations, highlighting the need for good assessments of future wind extremes. Our research indicates that a more hybrid approach to analysing compound events and readjusting our present warning system to a more contextualised framework might provide a firmer foundation for climate adaptation and disaster risk management. In particular, accentuating the importance of compound preconditioning effects on the outcome of natural hazards may avoid under- or overestimation of the associated risks.\u0000","PeriodicalId":18922,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2023-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47243913","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-12DOI: 10.5194/nhess-23-1789-2023
L. Schilirò, M. Rossi, F. Polpetta, F. Fiorucci, Carolina Fortunato, P. Reichenbach
Abstract. Over the last 2 decades, the topic of earthquake-triggered landslides (EQTLs) has shown increasing relevance in the scientific community. This interest is confirmed by the numerous articles published in international, peer-reviewed journals. In this work we present a database containing a selection of articles published on this topic from 1984 to 2021. The articles were selected through a systematic search on the Clarivate™ Web of Science™ Core Collection online platform and were catalogued into a web-based GIS (web-GIS), which was specifically designed to show different types of information. After a general analysis of the database, for each article the following aspects were identified: the bibliometric information (e.g. author(s), title, publication year), the relevant topic and sub-topic category (or categories), and the earthquake(s) addressed. The analysis allowed us to infer general information and statistics on EQTLs (e.g. relevant methodological approaches over time and in relation to the scale of investigation, most studied events), which can be useful to obtain a spatial distribution of the articles and a general overview of the topic.
摘要在过去的20年里，地震引发的山体滑坡(EQTLs)的话题在科学界显示出越来越大的相关性。这种兴趣被发表在国际同行评议期刊上的大量文章所证实。在这项工作中，我们提供了一个数据库，其中包含从1984年到2021年发表的关于该主题的文章。文章是通过在Clarivate™Web of Science™corecall在线平台上的系统搜索选出的，并被编目到一个基于Web的GIS (Web -GIS)中，该GIS专门用于显示不同类型的信息。在对数据库进行总体分析后，每篇文章确定了以下方面:文献计量信息(例如作者、标题、出版年份)、相关主题和子主题类别(或多个类别)以及所讨论的地震。该分析使我们能够推断出有关eqtl的一般信息和统计数据(例如，随着时间的推移，与调查规模、大多数研究事件相关的相关方法学方法)，这对于获得文章的空间分布和主题的总体概述非常有用。
{"title":"A web-based GIS (web-GIS) database of the scientific articles on earthquake-triggered landslides","authors":"L. Schilirò, M. Rossi, F. Polpetta, F. Fiorucci, Carolina Fortunato, P. Reichenbach","doi":"10.5194/nhess-23-1789-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1789-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Over the last 2 decades, the topic of\u0000earthquake-triggered landslides (EQTLs) has shown increasing relevance in\u0000the scientific community. This interest is confirmed by the numerous\u0000articles published in international, peer-reviewed journals. In this\u0000work we present a database containing a selection of articles published on\u0000this topic from 1984 to 2021. The articles were selected through a\u0000systematic search on the Clarivate™ Web of Science™ Core\u0000Collection online platform and were catalogued into a web-based GIS (web-GIS),\u0000which was specifically designed to show different types of information.\u0000After a general analysis of the database, for each article the following aspects were identified:\u0000the bibliometric information (e.g. author(s), title, publication year), the\u0000relevant topic and sub-topic category (or categories), and the earthquake(s) addressed. The\u0000analysis allowed us to infer general information and statistics on EQTLs (e.g.\u0000relevant methodological approaches over time and in relation to the scale of\u0000investigation, most studied events), which can be useful to obtain a spatial\u0000distribution of the articles and a general overview of the topic.\u0000","PeriodicalId":18922,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2023-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42925914","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-12DOI: 10.5194/nhess-23-1743-2023
L. Carleo, G. Currenti, A. Bonaccorso
Abstract. Lava fountains at the Etna volcano are spectacular eruptive events characterized by powerful jets that expel hot mixtures of solid particles and volcanic gases, easily reaching stratospheric heights. Ash dispersal and fallout of solid particles affect the inhabited areas, often causing hazards both to infrastructure and to air and vehicular traffic. We focus on the extraordinary intense and frequent eruptive activity at Etna in the period of December 2020–February 2022, when more than 60 lava fountain events occurred with various ejected magma volume and lava fountain height and duration. Differences among the events are also imprinted in tiny ground deformations caught by strain signals recorded concurrently with the lava fountain events, reflecting a strict relationship with their evolution. To characterize this variability, which denotes changes in the eruption style, we clustered the lava fountain events using the k-means algorithm applied on the strain signal. A novel procedure was developed to ensure a high-quality clustering process and obtain robust results. The analysis identified four groups of strain variations which stand out for their amplitude, duration and time derivative of the signal. The temporal distribution of the clusters highlighted a transition in different types of eruptions, thus revealing the importance of clustering the strain variations for monitoring the volcano activity and evaluating the associated hazards.
{"title":"Clustering of eruptive events from high-precision strain signals recorded during the 2020–2022 lava fountains at the Etna volcano (Italy)","authors":"L. Carleo, G. Currenti, A. Bonaccorso","doi":"10.5194/nhess-23-1743-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1743-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Lava fountains at the Etna volcano are spectacular eruptive events characterized by powerful jets that expel hot mixtures of solid particles and volcanic gases, easily reaching stratospheric heights. Ash dispersal and fallout of solid particles affect the inhabited areas, often causing hazards both to infrastructure and to air and vehicular traffic. We focus on the extraordinary intense and frequent eruptive activity at Etna in the period of December 2020–February 2022, when more than 60 lava fountain events occurred with various ejected magma volume and lava fountain height and\u0000duration. Differences among the events are also imprinted in tiny ground\u0000deformations caught by strain signals recorded concurrently with the lava\u0000fountain events, reflecting a strict relationship with their evolution. To\u0000characterize this variability, which denotes changes in the eruption style,\u0000we clustered the lava fountain events using the k-means algorithm applied on the strain signal. A novel procedure was developed to ensure a high-quality clustering process and obtain robust results. The analysis identified four groups of strain variations which stand out for their amplitude, duration and time derivative of the signal. The temporal distribution of the clusters\u0000highlighted a transition in different types of eruptions, thus revealing\u0000the importance of clustering the strain variations for monitoring the\u0000volcano activity and evaluating the associated hazards.\u0000","PeriodicalId":18922,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2023-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41451654","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-12DOI: 10.5194/nhess-23-1755-2023
Caili Zhong, Sibo Cheng, M. Kasoar, Rossella Arcucci
Abstract. The occurrence of forest fires can impact vegetation in the ecosystem, property, and human health but also indirectly affect the climate. The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator – INteractive Fire and Emissions algorithm for Natural envirOnments (JULES-INFERNO) is a global land surface model, which simulates vegetation, soils, and fire occurrence driven by environmental factors. However, this model incurs substantial computational costs due to the high data dimensionality and the complexity of differential equations. Deep-learning-based digital twins have an advantage in handling large amounts of data. They can reduce the computational cost of subsequent predictive models by extracting data features through reduced-order modelling (ROM) and then compressing the data to a low-dimensional latent space. This study proposes a JULES-INFERNO-based digital twin fire model using ROM techniques and deep learning prediction networks to improve the efficiency of global wildfire predictions. The iterative prediction implemented in the proposed model can use current-year data to predict fires in subsequent years. To avoid the accumulation of errors from the iterative prediction, latent data assimilation (LA) is applied to the prediction process. LA manages to efficiently adjust the prediction results to ensure the stability and sustainability of the prediction. Numerical results show that the proposed model can effectively encode the original data and achieve accurate surrogate predictions. Furthermore, the application of LA can also effectively adjust the bias of the prediction results. The proposed digital twin also runs 500 times faster for online predictions than the original JULES-INFERNO model without requiring high-performance computing (HPC) clusters.
{"title":"Reduced-order digital twin and latent data assimilation for global wildfire prediction","authors":"Caili Zhong, Sibo Cheng, M. Kasoar, Rossella Arcucci","doi":"10.5194/nhess-23-1755-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1755-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The occurrence of forest fires can impact vegetation in\u0000the ecosystem, property, and human health but also indirectly affect the\u0000climate. The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator – INteractive Fire and Emissions\u0000algorithm for Natural envirOnments (JULES-INFERNO) is a global land surface model, which simulates\u0000vegetation, soils, and fire occurrence driven by environmental factors.\u0000However, this model incurs substantial computational costs due to the high\u0000data dimensionality and the complexity of differential equations. Deep-learning-based digital twins have an advantage in handling large amounts of\u0000data. They can reduce the computational cost of subsequent predictive models\u0000by extracting data features through reduced-order modelling (ROM) and then\u0000compressing the data to a low-dimensional latent space. This study proposes\u0000a JULES-INFERNO-based digital twin fire model using ROM techniques and deep\u0000learning prediction networks to improve the efficiency of global wildfire\u0000predictions. The iterative prediction implemented in the proposed model can\u0000use current-year data to predict fires in subsequent years. To avoid the\u0000accumulation of errors from the iterative prediction, latent data\u0000assimilation (LA) is applied to the prediction process. LA manages to\u0000efficiently adjust the prediction results to ensure the stability and\u0000sustainability of the prediction. Numerical results show that the proposed\u0000model can effectively encode the original data and achieve accurate\u0000surrogate predictions. Furthermore, the application of LA can also\u0000effectively adjust the bias of the prediction results. The proposed digital\u0000twin also runs 500 times faster for online predictions than the original\u0000JULES-INFERNO model without requiring high-performance computing (HPC)\u0000clusters.\u0000","PeriodicalId":18922,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2023-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46896937","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-12DOI: 10.5194/nhess-23-1769-2023
Maxime Morel, Guillaume Piton, Damien Kuss, Guillaume Evin, Caroline Le Bouteiller
Abstract. The ability to understand and predict coarse-sediment transport in torrent catchments is a key element for the protection against and prevention of the associated hazards. In this study, we collected data describing sediment supply at 99 torrential catchments in the northern French Alps. The sample covers a wide range of geomorphic activity: from torrents experiencing debris flows every few years to fully forested catchments exporting small bed load volumes every decade. These catchments have long records of past events and sediment supply to debris basins. The mean annual, the 10-year return period and the reference volume (i.e., the 100-year return level or the largest observed volume) of sediment supply were derived for the studied torrents. We examined the relationships between specific sediment supply volumes and many explanatory variables using linear regression and random forest approaches. Results showed that the ratio of sediment-contributing area (bare soil or rock) to catchment area is the most important predictor of the specific sediment production volumes (m3 km−2). Other variables such as the Melton index or the indices of sediment connectivity also have an influence. Several predictive models were developed in order to estimate the sediment supply in torrents that are not equipped with debris basins.
{"title":"Statistical modeling of sediment supply in torrent catchments of the northern French Alps","authors":"Maxime Morel, Guillaume Piton, Damien Kuss, Guillaume Evin, Caroline Le Bouteiller","doi":"10.5194/nhess-23-1769-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1769-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The ability to understand and predict coarse-sediment transport in torrent catchments is a key element for the protection against and prevention of the associated hazards. In this study, we collected data describing sediment supply at 99 torrential catchments in the northern French Alps. The sample covers a wide range of geomorphic activity: from torrents experiencing debris flows every few years to fully forested catchments exporting small bed load volumes every decade. These catchments have long records of past events and sediment supply to debris basins. The mean annual, the 10-year return period and the reference volume (i.e., the 100-year return level or the largest observed volume) of sediment supply were derived for the studied torrents. We examined the relationships between specific sediment supply volumes and many explanatory variables using linear regression and random forest approaches. Results showed that the ratio of sediment-contributing area (bare soil or rock) to catchment area is the most important predictor of the specific sediment production volumes (m3 km−2). Other variables such as the Melton index or the indices of sediment connectivity also have an influence. Several predictive models were developed in order to estimate the sediment supply in torrents that are not equipped with debris basins.","PeriodicalId":18922,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135421494","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-10DOI: 10.5194/nhess-23-1719-2023
Abby Morgan, P. Haegeli, H. Finn, P. Mair
Abstract. Danger ratings are used across many fields to convey the severity of a hazard. In snow avalanche risk management, danger ratings play a prominent role in public bulletins by concisely describing existing and expected conditions. While there is considerable research examining the accuracy and consistency of the production of avalanche danger ratings, far less research has focused on how backcountry recreationists interpret and apply the scale. We used 3195 responses to an online survey to provide insight into how recreationists perceive the North American Public Avalanche Danger Scale and how they use ratings to make trip planning decisions. Using a latent class mixed-effect model, our analysis shows that 65 % of our study participants perceive the avalanche danger scale to be linear, which is different from the scientific understanding of the scale, which indicates an exponential-like increase in severity between levels. Regardless of perception, most respondents report avoiding the backcountry at the two highest ratings. Using conditional inference trees, we show that participants who recreate fewer days per year and those who have lower levels of avalanche safety training tend to rely more heavily on the danger rating to make trip planning decisions. These results provide avalanche warning services with a better understanding of how recreationists interact with danger ratings and highlight how critical the ratings are for individuals who recreate less often and who have lower levels of training. We discuss opportunities for avalanche warning services to optimize the danger scale to meet the needs of these users who depend on the ratings the most.
{"title":"A user perspective on the avalanche danger scale – insights from North America","authors":"Abby Morgan, P. Haegeli, H. Finn, P. Mair","doi":"10.5194/nhess-23-1719-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1719-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Danger ratings are used across many fields to convey the severity of a hazard. In snow avalanche risk management, danger ratings play a prominent role in public bulletins by concisely describing existing and expected conditions. While there is considerable research examining the accuracy and consistency of the production of avalanche danger ratings, far less research has focused on how backcountry recreationists interpret and\u0000apply the scale. We used 3195 responses to an online survey to provide insight into how\u0000recreationists perceive the North American Public Avalanche Danger Scale and how they use ratings to make trip planning decisions. Using a latent class mixed-effect model, our analysis shows that 65 % of our study participants perceive the avalanche danger scale to be linear, which is different from the scientific understanding of the scale, which indicates an exponential-like increase in severity between levels. Regardless of\u0000perception, most respondents report avoiding the backcountry at the two\u0000highest ratings. Using conditional inference trees, we show that\u0000participants who recreate fewer days per year and those who have lower\u0000levels of avalanche safety training tend to rely more heavily on the danger\u0000rating to make trip planning decisions. These results provide avalanche\u0000warning services with a better understanding of how recreationists interact\u0000with danger ratings and highlight how critical the ratings are for\u0000individuals who recreate less often and who have lower levels of training.\u0000We discuss opportunities for avalanche warning services to optimize the\u0000danger scale to meet the needs of these users who depend on the ratings the\u0000most.\u0000","PeriodicalId":18922,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2023-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45975886","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：