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A model for the human fetal ventricular myocyte electrophysiology. 人胎儿心室肌细胞电生理模型。
IF 3.6 2区 生物学 Q1 BIOCHEMICAL RESEARCH METHODS Pub Date : 2026-01-27 eCollection Date: 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1013889
Adelisa Avezzú, Stefano Longobardi, Anita Alvarez-Laviada, Francisca Schultz, Julia Gorelik, Catherine Williamson, Steven A Niederer

Fetal cardiac arrhythmias can lead to stillbirth, but direct studies on the human fetal heart are challenging. To address this, we developed a computational model of human fetal ventricular myocyte (hfVM) electrophysiology, focusing on early gestation (10 weeks). This model incorporates major ionic currents, including fetal-specific T-type calcium and funny currents, and is calibrated using mRNA expression data and experimental measurements. The hfVM model replicates key electrophysiological features, such as a shorter action potential duration and a more positive resting membrane potential compared to adult cells. Global sensitivity analysis reveals that the resting membrane potential is primarily influenced by the funny current and IK1, while action potential repolarisation depends mainly on IKr. Additionally, the sarcoplasmic reticulum contributes to calcium release, but less so than in adults; instead, the T-type calcium current and the sodium-calcium exchanger are more prominent in initiating calcium transients. This is the first human fetal ventricular myocyte model available for studying fetal cardiac physiology, pathology, and potential pharmacological interventions. It provides novel insights into the dominant ion channels governing fetal electrophysiology and calcium dynamics, offering a foundation for understanding arrhythmias and guiding therapeutic strategies.

胎儿心律失常可导致死产,但对人类胎儿心脏的直接研究具有挑战性。为了解决这个问题,我们开发了一个人类胎儿心室肌细胞(hfVM)电生理的计算模型,重点是妊娠早期(10周)。该模型结合了主要的离子电流,包括胎儿特异性t型钙和搞笑电流,并使用mRNA表达数据和实验测量进行校准。与成年细胞相比,hfVM模型复制了关键的电生理特征,如更短的动作电位持续时间和更积极的静息膜电位。全局敏感性分析表明静息膜电位主要受滑稽电流和IK1的影响,而动作电位复极主要受IKr的影响。此外,肌浆网有助于钙的释放,但低于成人;相反,t型钙电流和钠钙交换器在引发钙瞬态方面更为突出。这是第一个人类胎儿心室肌细胞模型,可用于研究胎儿心脏生理、病理和潜在的药物干预。它为控制胎儿电生理和钙动力学的主要离子通道提供了新的见解,为理解心律失常和指导治疗策略提供了基础。
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引用次数: 0
Abundant positively-charged proteins underlie JCVI-Syn3A's expanded nucleoid and ribosome distribution. 丰富的正电荷蛋白是JCVI-Syn3A扩大的类核和核糖体分布的基础。
IF 3.6 2区 生物学 Q1 BIOCHEMICAL RESEARCH METHODS Pub Date : 2026-01-27 eCollection Date: 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1013898
Gesse Roure, Vishal S Sivasankar, Roseanna N Zia

Nucleoid compaction in bacteria is commonly attributed to cytoplasmic crowding, DNA supercoiling, and nucleoid-associated proteins (NAPs). In most bacterial species, including E. coli, these effects condense the chromosome into a subcellular region and largely exclude ribosomes to the surrounding cytoplasm. In contrast, many Mycoplasma-including the Mycoplasma-derived synthetic cell JCVI-Syn3A-exhibit a cell-spanning nucleoid with ribosomes distributed throughout. Because Mycoplasma are evolutionarily distant from model bacteria like E. coli and have undergone extensive genome reduction, Syn3A is a natural testbed for genotype-to-'physiotype'-to-phenotype, in which genome-encoded composition reshapes cell-scale organization. Here we show that this organization can arise from Syn3A's unusually high abundance of positively charged proteins. We develop a coarse-grained model that explicitly and physically represents a sequence-accurate chromosome together with ribosomes and cytoplasmic proteins at physiological size, charge, and abundance. With DNA and ribosomes alone, the cell-spanning nucleoid relaxes toward a compacted state that sterically excludes ribosomes, indicating missing physics beyond polymer mechanics and excluded volume. When we include electrostatic interactions by assigning effective charges to each biomolecule, positively charged proteins dynamically enrich around ribosomes and DNA, partially screening ribosome-DNA repulsion. This charge shielding enables ribosomes to penetrate the nucleoid mesh and stabilizes a cell-spanning nucleoid consistent with experiment. This behavior is robust across parameter sweeps: DNA stiffness, heterogeneous mesh size, and crowding favor compaction, whereas electrostatics and size polydispersity promote expansion, with consequences for migration pathways within the nucleoid and thus transcription-translation dynamics. The framework is parameterized directly from genomic and proteomic composition and is transferable to other bacteria.

细菌中的类核压实通常归因于细胞质拥挤,DNA超卷曲和核相关蛋白(nap)。在包括大肠杆菌在内的大多数细菌物种中,这些作用使染色体浓缩到一个亚细胞区域,并在很大程度上将核糖体排除在周围的细胞质之外。相比之下,许多支原体——包括支原体衍生的合成细胞jcvi - syn3a——表现出跨越细胞的类核,核糖体分布在整个细胞中。由于支原体在进化上与大肠杆菌等模式细菌距离较远,并且经历了广泛的基因组减少,因此Syn3A是基因型到“生理型”到表型的天然测试平台,在这种测试中,基因组编码的成分重塑了细胞规模的组织。在这里,我们发现这种组织可以由Syn3A异常丰富的带正电荷的蛋白质产生。我们开发了一个粗粒度模型,明确地和物理地代表了一个序列精确的染色体,核糖体和细胞质蛋白在生理大小,电荷和丰度。单独使用DNA和核糖体时,跨越细胞的类核松弛到紧致状态,在空间上排除核糖体,这表明除了聚合物力学和排除体积之外缺少物理。当我们通过给每个生物分子分配有效电荷来包括静电相互作用时,带正电的蛋白质在核糖体和DNA周围动态富集,部分地筛选核糖体-DNA排斥。这种电荷屏蔽使核糖体能够穿透类核网并稳定与实验一致的细胞跨越类核。这种行为在参数扫描中是稳定的:DNA刚度、异质网尺寸和拥挤有利于压实,而静电和尺寸多分散性促进扩张,从而影响类核内的迁移途径,从而影响转录-翻译动力学。该框架直接由基因组和蛋白质组组成参数化,并可转移到其他细菌。
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引用次数: 0
PlasticEnz: An integrated database and screening tool combining homology and machine learning to identify plastic-degrading enzymes in meta-omics datasets. PlasticEnz:一个整合数据库和筛选工具,结合同源性和机器学习,在元组学数据集中识别塑料降解酶。
IF 3.6 2区 生物学 Q1 BIOCHEMICAL RESEARCH METHODS Pub Date : 2026-01-26 eCollection Date: 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1013892
Anna Krzynowek, Jasper Snoeks, Karoline Faust

PlasticEnz is a new open-source tool for detecting plastic-degrading enzymes (plastizymes) in metagenomic data by combining sequence homology-based search with machine learning techniques. It integrates custom Hidden Markov Models, DIAMOND alignments, and polymer-specific classifiers trained on ProtBERT embeddings to identify candidate depolymerases from user-provided contigs, genomes, or protein sequences. PlasticEnz supports 11 plastic polymers with ML classifiers for PET and PHB, achieving F1 > 0.7 on an independent test set. Applied to plastic-exposed microcosms and field metagenomes, the tool recovered known PETases and PHBases, distinguished plastic-contaminated from pristine environments, and clustered predictions with validated reference enzymes. PlasticEnz is fast, scalable, and user-friendly, providing a robust framework for exploring microbial plastic degradation potential in complex communities.

PlasticEnz是一个新的开源工具,用于检测宏基因组数据中的塑料降解酶(plastizymes),该工具将基于序列同源性的搜索与机器学习技术相结合。它集成了定制的隐马尔可夫模型,DIAMOND校准,以及在ProtBERT嵌入上训练的聚合物特异性分类器,以从用户提供的contigs,基因组或蛋白质序列中识别候选解聚合酶。PlasticEnz支持11种塑料聚合物,具有PET和PHB的ML分类器,在独立测试集上实现了F1 > 0.7。应用于塑料暴露的微观世界和野外宏基因组,该工具恢复已知的petase和phbase,从原始环境中区分塑料污染,并与验证的参考酶聚类预测。PlasticEnz快速、可扩展、用户友好,为探索复杂群落中微生物塑料降解潜力提供了一个强大的框架。
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引用次数: 0
Composing egocentric and allocentric maps for flexible navigation. 为灵活的导航组合自中心和非中心地图。
IF 3.6 2区 生物学 Q1 BIOCHEMICAL RESEARCH METHODS Pub Date : 2026-01-23 eCollection Date: 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1013905
Daniel Shani, Peter Dayan

Egocentric representations of the environment have historically been relegated to being used only for simple forms of spatial behaviour such as stimulus-response learning. However, in the many cases that critical aspects of policies are best defined relative to the self, egocentric representations can be advantageous. Furthermore, there is evidence that forms of egocentric representation might exist in the wider hippocampal formation. Nevertheless, egocentric representations have yet to be fully incorporated as a component of modern navigational methods. Here we investigate egocentric successor representations (SRs) and their combination with allocentric representations. We build a reinforcement learning agent that combines an egocentric SR with a conventional allocentric SR to navigate complex 2D environments. We demonstrate that the agent learns generalisable egocentric and allocentric value functions which, even when only additively composed, allow it to learn policies efficiently and to adapt to new environments quickly. Our work shows the benefit for egocentric relational structure to be captured, as well as allocentric. We offer a new perspective on how cognitive maps could usefully be composed from multiple simple maps representing associations between state features defined in different reference frames.

以自我为中心的环境表征在历史上被降级为仅用于简单形式的空间行为,如刺激-反应学习。然而,在许多情况下,政策的关键方面最好是相对于自我来定义的,以自我为中心的表示可能是有利的。此外,有证据表明,自我中心表征的形式可能存在于更广泛的海马体结构中。然而,以自我为中心的表征尚未被完全纳入现代导航方法的组成部分。本文研究了自我中心后继表征及其与非中心表征的结合。我们构建了一个强化学习代理,它结合了以自我为中心的SR和传统的非中心SR来导航复杂的2D环境。我们证明了智能体学习了广义的自我中心和非中心的价值函数,即使只是加法组合,也允许它有效地学习策略并快速适应新环境。我们的工作显示了利己关系结构和非利己关系结构的好处。我们提供了一个新的视角,关于认知地图如何有效地由多个简单的地图组成,这些地图表示在不同参考框架中定义的状态特征之间的关联。
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引用次数: 0
How do tumor-associated neutrophils regulate the microenvironmental landscape of brain tumors: Delivery of nano-particles through BBB. 肿瘤相关的中性粒细胞如何调节脑肿瘤的微环境景观:纳米颗粒通过血脑屏障的传递。
IF 3.6 2区 生物学 Q1 BIOCHEMICAL RESEARCH METHODS Pub Date : 2026-01-23 eCollection Date: 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1013906
Haneol Cho, Junho Lee, Sean Lawler, Yangjin Kim

Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) is the most aggressive form of brain cancer with the very poor survival and high recurrence rate. Tumor-associated neutrophils (TANs) play a pivotal role in regulation of the tumor microenvironment. In this study, we developed a new mathematical model of the critical GBM-TAN interaction in the heterogeneous brain tissue. The model reveals that the dual and complex role of TANs (either anti-tumorigenic N1 and the pro-tumorigenic N2 type) regulates the phenotypic trajectory of the evolution of tumor growth and the invasive patterns in white and gray matter via mediators such as IFN-β and TGF-β. We investigated the effect of normalizing the immune environment on glioma growth by applying a therapeutic antibody and developed several strategies for eradication of tumor cells by neutrophil-mediated transport of nanoparticles. We also developed a strategy of combination therapy (surgery + Trojan neutrophils) for effective control of the infiltration of the glioma cells in one hemisphere before crossing the corpus callosum (CC) in order to prevent recurrence in the other hemisphere. This alternative approach compared to the extended resection of the glioma including CC or butterfly GBM may provide the greater anti-tumor efficacy and reduce side effects such as cognitive impairment.

多形性胶质母细胞瘤(GBM)是最具侵袭性的脑癌,生存率极低,复发率高。肿瘤相关中性粒细胞(TANs)在调节肿瘤微环境中起着关键作用。在这项研究中,我们建立了一个新的数学模型来描述异质脑组织中GBM-TAN的临界相互作用。该模型揭示了TANs(抗致瘤N1型和促致瘤N2型)的双重和复杂作用,通过IFN-β和TGF-β等介质调节肿瘤生长进化的表型轨迹和白质和灰质的侵袭模式。我们通过应用一种治疗性抗体来研究免疫环境正常化对胶质瘤生长的影响,并开发了几种通过中性粒细胞介导的纳米颗粒运输来根除肿瘤细胞的策略。我们还开发了一种联合治疗策略(手术+特洛伊中性粒细胞),以有效控制胶质瘤细胞在穿过胼胝体(CC)之前在一个半球的浸润,以防止另一个半球的复发。与包括CC或蝴蝶状GBM在内的胶质瘤的扩展切除相比,这种替代方法可能提供更大的抗肿瘤效果,并减少副作用,如认知障碍。
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引用次数: 0
AugGCL: Multimodal graph learning for spatial transcriptomics analysis with enhanced gene and morphological data. 利用增强的基因和形态数据进行空间转录组学分析的多模态图学习。
IF 3.6 2区 生物学 Q1 BIOCHEMICAL RESEARCH METHODS Pub Date : 2026-01-23 eCollection Date: 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1013912
Tengfei Ji, Bo Yang, Meng Wang, Hong Ji, Huazhe Yang, Yizhuo Liu

Spatial transcriptomics enables the measurement of gene expression in intact tissues. Despite this, reconstructing anatomically accurate spatial domains remains challenging, primarily due to expression sparsity, complex tissue architecture that is characterized by sharp boundaries and long-range continuity, and weak spatial signals. Traditional pipelines typically rely on expression-driven clustering and spatial smoothing, which underperform at boundaries and in sparse regions while neglecting morphological information. To address these challenges, AugGCL is proposed, an augmented graph-convolutional learning framework that enhances spatial structure decoding and gene expression reconstruction through targeted augmentation of both gene and image data. A key component of AugGCL is neighborhood information aggregation mechanism, which integrates expression similarity and spatial proximity to construct a weighted graph and an enhanced expression matrix, addressing sparsity without sacrificing boundary clarity. Additionally, a two stream weighted graph convolutional network jointly models refined gene features and image-derived morphological information, with image-aware auxiliary reconstructions enhancing weak spatial signals and sharpening boundaries. On datasets from the human dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, breast cancer, and mouse embryo, AugGCL outperforms baseline methods across multiple metrics, showing robustness and generalization across a range of datasets. Downstream analysis validated the reliability of the method, confirming its effectiveness in cell annotation, functional enrichment, and mechanistic studies. AugGCL generates clearer spatial domains and significantly advances the application of spatial transcriptomics in tissue structure and disease research.

空间转录组学能够测量完整组织中的基因表达。尽管如此,重建解剖学上准确的空间域仍然具有挑战性,主要是由于表达稀疏性,复杂的组织结构以尖锐的边界和远距离连续性为特征,以及微弱的空间信号。传统的管道通常依赖于表达驱动的聚类和空间平滑,在边界和稀疏区域表现不佳,而忽略了形态信息。为了解决这些挑战,AugGCL提出了一个增强图卷积学习框架,通过有针对性地增强基因和图像数据来增强空间结构解码和基因表达重建。AugGCL的关键组成部分是邻域信息聚合机制,该机制将表达相似度和空间接近度结合在一起,构建加权图和增强的表达矩阵,在不牺牲边界清晰度的情况下解决稀疏性问题。此外,两流加权图卷积网络联合建模精细的基因特征和图像衍生的形态信息,图像感知辅助重建增强弱空间信号和锐化边界。在来自人类背外侧前额叶皮层、乳腺癌和小鼠胚胎的数据集上,AugGCL在多个指标上优于基线方法,在一系列数据集上显示出鲁棒性和泛化性。下游分析验证了该方法的可靠性,证实了其在细胞注释、功能富集和机制研究中的有效性。AugGCL生成了更清晰的空间域,显著推进了空间转录组学在组织结构和疾病研究中的应用。
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引用次数: 0
Homeostasis after injury: How intertwined inference and control underpin post-injury pain and behaviour. 损伤后的内稳态:如何交织推理和控制支撑损伤后疼痛和行为。
IF 3.6 2区 生物学 Q1 BIOCHEMICAL RESEARCH METHODS Pub Date : 2026-01-22 eCollection Date: 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1013538
Pranav Mahajan, Peter Dayan, Ben Seymour

Injuries are an unfortunate but inevitable fact of life, leading to an evolutionary mandate for powerful homeostatic processes of recovery and recuperation. The physiological responses of the body and the immune system must be coordinated with behaviour to allow protected time for this to happen, and to prevent further damage to the affected bodily parts. Reacting appropriately requires an internal control system that represents the nature and state of the injury and specifies and withholds actions accordingly. We bring the formal uncertainties embodied in this system into the framework of a partially observable Markov decision process. We discuss nociceptive phenomena in light of this analysis, noting particularly the counter-intuitive behaviours associated with injury investigation, and the propensity for transitions from normative, tonic, to pathological, chronic pain states. Importantly, these simulation results provide a quantitative account and enable us to sketch a much needed roadmap for future theoretical and experimental studies on injury, tonic pain, and the transition to chronic pain.

受伤是生命中不幸但不可避免的事实,导致进化要求强大的自我平衡过程的恢复和恢复。身体和免疫系统的生理反应必须与行为相协调,为这种情况的发生提供保护时间,并防止对受影响的身体部位造成进一步损害。适当的反应需要一个内部控制系统,它代表了伤害的性质和状态,并相应地规定和保留行动。我们将该系统中包含的形式不确定性引入部分可观察马尔可夫决策过程的框架中。根据这一分析,我们讨论了伤害性现象,特别注意与损伤调查相关的反直觉行为,以及从规范、强直、病理、慢性疼痛状态过渡的倾向。重要的是,这些模拟结果提供了一个定量的说明,使我们能够为未来损伤、强直性疼痛和向慢性疼痛过渡的理论和实验研究勾画出一个急需的路线图。
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引用次数: 0
A predicted structural interactome reveals binding interference from intrinsically disordered regions. 一个预测的结构相互作用组揭示了内在无序区域的结合干扰。
IF 3.6 2区 生物学 Q1 BIOCHEMICAL RESEARCH METHODS Pub Date : 2026-01-22 eCollection Date: 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1013899
Junhui Peng, Li Zhao

Proteins function through dynamic interactions with other proteins in cells, forming complex networks fundamental to cellular processes. While high-resolution and high-throughput methods have significantly advanced our understanding of how proteins interact with each other, the molecular details of many important protein-protein interactions are still poorly characterized, especially in non-mammalian species, including Drosophila. Recent advancements in deep learning techniques have enabled the prediction of molecular details in various cellular pathways at the network level. In this study, we used AlphaFold2 Multimer to examine and predict protein-protein interactions from both physical and functional datasets in Drosophila. We found that functional associations contribute significantly to high-confidence predictions. Through detailed structural analysis, we also found the importance of intrinsically disordered regions in the predicted high-confidence interactions. Our study highlights the importance of disordered regions in protein-protein interactions and demonstrates the importance of incorporating functional interactions in predicting physical interactions between proteins. We further compiled an interactive web interface to present these predictions, facilitating functional exploration, comparative analysis, and the generation of mechanistic hypotheses for future studies.

蛋白质通过与细胞内其他蛋白质的动态相互作用发挥功能,形成复杂的细胞过程基础网络。虽然高分辨率和高通量的方法大大提高了我们对蛋白质如何相互作用的理解,但许多重要的蛋白质-蛋白质相互作用的分子细节仍然很差,特别是在包括果蝇在内的非哺乳动物物种中。深度学习技术的最新进展已经能够在网络水平上预测各种细胞通路的分子细节。在这项研究中,我们使用AlphaFold2多定时器从果蝇的物理和功能数据集检查和预测蛋白质-蛋白质相互作用。我们发现功能关联对高置信度预测有显著贡献。通过详细的结构分析,我们还发现了内在无序区域在预测的高置信度相互作用中的重要性。我们的研究强调了蛋白质-蛋白质相互作用中无序区域的重要性,并证明了在预测蛋白质之间的物理相互作用时纳入功能相互作用的重要性。我们进一步编制了一个交互式web界面来呈现预测,促进功能探索,比较分析,并为未来的研究产生机制假设。
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引用次数: 0
Bayesian data driven modelling of kinetochore dynamics: Space-time organisation of the human metaphase plate. 着丝点动力学的贝叶斯数据驱动模型:人类中期板的时空组织。
IF 3.6 2区 生物学 Q1 BIOCHEMICAL RESEARCH METHODS Pub Date : 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1013884
Constandina Koki, Alessio V Inchingolo, Abdullahi Daniyan, Enyu Li, Andrew D McAinsh, Nigel J Burroughs

Mitosis is a complex self-organising process that achieves high fidelity separation of duplicated chromosomes into two daughter cells through capture and alignment of chromosomes to the spindle mid-plane. Chromosome movements are driven by kinetochores (KTs), multi-protein machines that attach chromosomes to microtubules (MTs), and through those attachments both control and generate directional forces. Using lattice light sheet microscopy imaging and automated near-complete tracking of kinetochores at fine spatio-temporal resolution, we produce a detailed atlas of kinetochore metaphase-anaphase dynamics in untransformed human cells (RPE1). Such data allows dynamic models to be reverse engineered and biological hypotheses to be addressed. We determined the support from this dataset for 17 models of metaphase dynamics using Bayesian inference, demonstrating (1) substantial sister asymmetry that generates transverse organisation of the metaphase plate (MPP), (2) substantial spatial organisation of KT dynamic properties within the MPP, and (3) significant time dependence of the K-fiber mechanical parameters whereby K-fiber forces tune over the last 5 mins of metaphase towards a set point, referred to as the anaphase ready state. These spatio-temporal trends are robust to perturbation of the spindle assembly pathway (nocodazole washout treatment), suggesting that the underlying processes generating kinetochore heterogeneity are intrinsic to mitosis and possibly play a role in ensuring high-fidelity segregation.

有丝分裂是一个复杂的自组织过程,通过捕获和排列染色体到纺锤体中面,实现了复制染色体高保真分离成两个子细胞。染色体运动是由着丝点(KTs)驱动的,这是一种将染色体附着在微管上的多蛋白机器,通过这些附着物控制和产生定向力。利用点阵光片显微镜成像和在精细时空分辨率下对着丝点进行近乎完整的自动跟踪,我们绘制了未转化人类细胞(RPE1)中着丝点中期-后期动力学的详细图谱。这样的数据允许动态模型被逆向工程和生物学假设被处理。我们利用贝叶斯推理确定了该数据集对17个中期动力学模型的支持,证明了(1)产生中期板横向组织(MPP)的实质性姊妹不对称,(2)MPP内KT动态特性的实质性空间组织,以及(3)k纤维力学参数的显著时间依赖性,其中k纤维力在中期最后5分钟向一个设定值调整,称为后期准备状态。这些时空趋势对纺锤体组装途径的扰动(nocodazole冲洗处理)是稳定的,这表明产生着丝点异质性的潜在过程是有丝分裂所固有的,并且可能在确保高保真分离中发挥作用。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring real-time disease transmissibility with temperature-dependent generation intervals. 利用温度依赖的产生间隔实时测量疾病传播力。
IF 3.6 2区 生物学 Q1 BIOCHEMICAL RESEARCH METHODS Pub Date : 2026-01-21 eCollection Date: 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1013820
Esther Li Wen Choo, Kris V Parag, Jo Yi Chow, Jue Tao Lim

Accurate real-time estimation of the effective reproduction number (Rt) is critical for infectious disease surveillance and response. In vector-borne diseases like dengue, temperature strongly influences disease transmission by affecting generation times. However, most existing Rt estimation methods assume a fixed generation interval, leading to biased estimates and unreliable assessments of transmission risk in settings with fluctuating temperatures. In this study, we proposed and evaluated a novel framework to estimate a temperature-dependent reproduction number (td-Rt) that dynamically updates the generation interval distribution based on observed temperature data. We obtained real-time estimates of td-Rt through an adapted Bayesian recursive filtering process. Using real and simulated data for a temperature-sensitive disease (dengue), we evaluated the performance of td-Rt against the typically used temperature-independent reproduction number (ti-Rt) and angular reproduction number ([Formula: see text]), which does not require specification of the generation interval. Simulated data was generated under varying patterns of underlying Rt and temperature datasets. Performance was evaluated by classification accuracy, defined by the proportion of instances where estimated Rt correctly identified whether the true Rt was above or below 1. We found that td-Rt generally outperformed ti-Rt and [Formula: see text] in classifying periods of epidemic growth. td-Rt achieved the highest classification accuracy in 54 of 72 simulation scenarios, with accuracy ranging from 37.1%-95.9%. td-Rt accuracy was highest in scenarios with greater temperature variability, surpassing other methods by up to 20%. With Singapore dengue case data, td-Rt and [Formula: see text] signals showed 75% similarity, highlighting [Formula: see text]'s potential as a complementary measure that is less sensitive to model assumptions. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for temperature in real-time transmissibility estimates, as temperature-driven variations in generation time can introduce model misspecification and bias. Incorporating temperature is especially crucial for climate-sensitive diseases like dengue. Future work could extend this framework to other pathogens and additional transmission-relevant covariates.

准确实时估计有效繁殖数(Rt)对传染病监测和应对至关重要。在登革热等病媒传播疾病中,温度通过影响世代对疾病传播产生强烈影响。然而,大多数现有的Rt估计方法假设一个固定的发电间隔,导致有偏差的估计和不可靠的评估在温度波动环境下的传播风险。在这项研究中,我们提出并评估了一个新的框架来估计温度依赖繁殖数(td-Rt),该框架基于观测到的温度数据动态更新生成间隔分布。我们通过自适应贝叶斯递归滤波过程获得了td-Rt的实时估计。使用温度敏感疾病(登革热)的真实和模拟数据,我们根据通常使用的温度无关繁殖数(ti-Rt)和角度繁殖数([公式:见文本])评估了td-Rt的性能,这不需要指定生成间隔。模拟数据是在不同模式的底层温度和温度数据集下生成的。性能是通过分类准确性来评估的,分类准确性是由估计的Rt正确识别真实Rt是大于还是小于1的实例的比例来定义的。我们发现,在对流行病增长时期进行分类时,td-Rt通常优于ti-Rt和[公式:见文本]。在72个模拟场景中,td-Rt在54个场景中获得了最高的分类准确率,准确率在37.1%-95.9%之间。在温度变化较大的情况下,td-Rt精度最高,比其他方法高出20%。在新加坡登革热病例数据中,td-Rt和[公式:见文本]信号显示75%的相似性,突出了[公式:见文本]作为对模型假设不太敏感的补充措施的潜力。这些发现强调了在实时传递率估计中考虑温度的重要性,因为温度驱动的发电时间变化可能会引入模型的错误规范和偏差。考虑温度对登革热等气候敏感疾病尤为重要。未来的工作可能会将这一框架扩展到其他病原体和其他与传播相关的协变量。
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引用次数: 0
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PLoS Computational Biology
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