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Can Institutional Investors Restrain Stock Market Manipulation?--Empirical Evidence From an Emerging Market 机构投资者能否抑制股市操纵?——来自新兴市场的经验证据
Pub Date : 2020-05-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3614890
Jie Liu, Chonglin Wu, Lin Yuan
This paper analyzes the relationship between the proportion of institutional investors’ shareholding and the probability of stock manipulation using 252 cases of manipulation disclosed in public administrative penalty decision of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) from 2007 to 2019. The empirical results show that the higher the proportion of institutional investors’ shareholding, the lower the probability of market manipulation. Further analysis shows that the effect is mainly shown in non-shortable stocks. Moreover, controlling for the endogeneity using exogenous policy shocks, the effect of institutional investors on restraining market manipulation still exists. In the end, considering the fact that the cases of market manipulation detected by the CSRC are only a part of the real cases, this paper uses Bivariate Probit model with partial observability and finds that the higher the proportion of institutional investors’ shareholding, the lower the probability of stocks being manipulated and the higher probability of being detected after manipulation.
本文以2007 - 2019年中国证监会公开行政处罚决定书披露的252起操纵案件为样本,分析了机构投资者持股比例与股票操纵概率之间的关系。实证结果表明,机构投资者持股比例越高,市场操纵的概率越低。进一步分析表明,这种影响主要表现在非卖空股票上。此外,在利用外生政策冲击控制内生性的情况下,机构投资者抑制市场操纵的作用仍然存在。最后,考虑到证监会检测到的市场操纵案例只是真实案例的一部分,本文采用具有部分可观察性的Bivariate Probit模型,发现机构投资者持股比例越高,股票被操纵的概率越低,操纵后被发现的概率越高。
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引用次数: 0
GDP-Linked Bonds as a New Asset Class gdp挂钩债券作为一种新的资产类别
Pub Date : 2020-05-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3611636
Ellie Papavassiliou, Nikolas Topaloglou, S. Zenios
We show that GDP-linked bonds can provide diversification benefits to investors. We use a stochastic spanning methodology which makes no assumptions on the distributional characteristics of the returns of these innovative instruments and apply to test both floaters and linkers. We find that both types of GDP-linked bonds are not spanned by a benchmark set of stocks, bonds, and cash assets, thus providing a new asset class. Spanning is ruled out for a wide and reasonable range of bond design parameters. In out-of-sample testing we find significant diversification benefits for investors, with strongly statistically significant increases in Sharpe ratios in the range 0.10-0.43 for floaters and 0.05-0.17 for linkers over an optimal benchmark portfolio. The results for linkers depend on the risk premium that these instruments will trade, while floaters are less sensitive to the premium, but the benefits remain for the range of premia estimated in existing literature. Our finding are further explained by documenting the finance and macro factors that drive the performance of GDP-linked bonds, using generalized method of moments regressions.
我们表明,与gdp挂钩的债券可以为投资者提供多样化的好处。我们使用随机跨越方法,该方法对这些创新工具的收益的分布特征没有任何假设,并适用于测试浮动和连接。我们发现,这两种类型的gdp挂钩债券都没有被股票、债券和现金资产的基准组合所跨越,从而提供了一种新的资产类别。在合理的键合设计参数范围内,不考虑跨接。在样本外测试中,我们发现投资者有显著的分散收益,在最优基准投资组合中,浮动股票的夏普比率在0.10-0.43范围内显著增加,挂钩股票在0.05-0.17范围内显著增加。挂钩机制的结果取决于这些工具将交易的风险溢价,而浮动机制对溢价不太敏感,但在现有文献中估计的溢价范围内,收益仍然存在。通过使用广义矩回归方法记录驱动gdp挂钩债券表现的金融和宏观因素,我们的发现得到了进一步的解释。
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引用次数: 1
Macro-Finance Decoupling: Robust Evaluations of Macro Asset Pricing Models 宏观金融解耦:宏观资产定价模型的稳健评估
Pub Date : 2020-05-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3609627
Xu Cheng, W. Dou, Z. Liao
This paper shows that robust inference under weak identification is important to the evaluation of many influential macro asset pricing models, including (time‐varying) rare‐disaster risk models and long‐run risk models. Building on recent developments in the conditional inference literature, we provide a novel conditional specification test by simulating the critical value conditional on a sufficient statistic. This sufficient statistic can be intuitively interpreted as a measure capturing the macroeconomic information decoupled from the underlying content of asset pricing theories. Macro‐finance decoupling is an effective way to improve the power of the specification test when asset pricing theories are difficult to refute because of a severe imbalance in the information content about the key model parameters between macroeconomic moment restrictions and asset pricing cross‐equation restrictions. We apply the proposed conditional specification test to the evaluation of a time‐varying rare‐disaster risk model and the construction of robust model uncertainty sets.
本文表明,弱识别下的稳健推理对于评估许多有影响力的宏观资产定价模型(包括(时变)罕见灾害风险模型和长期风险模型)非常重要。在条件推理文献最新进展的基础上,我们通过在充分统计量上模拟临界值条件,提供了一种新的条件规范检验。这个充分的统计数据可以直观地解释为捕获与资产定价理论的基本内容分离的宏观经济信息的度量。当资产定价理论由于宏观经济时刻约束和资产定价交叉方程约束之间的关键模型参数的信息含量严重不平衡而难以反驳时,宏观金融解耦是提高规范检验能力的有效方法。我们将提出的条件规范检验应用于时变罕见灾害风险模型的评估和鲁棒模型不确定性集的构建。
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引用次数: 13
Back to Fundamentals: The Accrual–Cash Flow Correlation, the Inverted-U Pattern, and Stock Returns 回到基本面:应计与现金流量的相关性、倒u型模式和股票收益
Pub Date : 2020-05-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3603096
Ran An, Peng-Chia Chiu, Yinglei Zhang
Economic and reporting development factors affect the timing and non-timing roles of accruals, which in turn affect the correlation between accruals and operating cash flows (CFO). We show that the strength of the accrual anomaly varies predictably with the economic determinants of the accruals-CFO relation, including intangible intensity, the length of operating cycles, extreme positive and negative financial performance, the magnitude of the non-timing-related accruals, and firm-specific estimation of the accruals-CFO relation in a cross-section analysis. Next, using variations in the correlation between accruals and CFO, we explain several seemingly unrelated empirical regularities of the accrual anomaly. First, we explain the stronger accrual anomaly among profit firms, large-sized firms, firms with higher covariation between accruals and the employment growth rate, and firms with higher earnings response coefficients. Second, we explain the inverted U-shape relation between accruals and future stock returns in the recent two decades and the time-series decline of abnormal returns of the accrual anomaly. Third, we further demonstrate that the strength of the return predictability of components of accruals depends on the strength of the correlation between individual accrual components and CFO. Finally, we extend our analysis to a large class of accounting-based return predictors that are related to accruals, and still find stronger return predictability for firms with more negative correlations between the predicting variables and CFO.
经济和报告发展因素影响应计项目的时序和非时序作用,进而影响应计项目与经营性现金流量(CFO)之间的相关性。我们在横断面分析中表明,应计收益异常的强度可预测地随应计收益- cfo关系的经济决定因素而变化,包括无形的强度、经营周期的长度、极端的积极和消极的财务业绩、非时间相关的应计收益的大小,以及企业对应计收益- cfo关系的具体估计。接下来,利用应计项目与CFO之间相关性的变化,我们解释了应计项目异常的几个看似无关的经验规律。首先,我们解释了盈利企业、大型企业、应计收益与就业增长率之间协变较高的企业和盈利反应系数较高的企业中应计收益异常较强的现象。其次,我们解释了近20年应计收益与未来股票收益之间的倒u型关系,以及应计收益异常收益的时间序列下降。第三,我们进一步证明了应计项目组成部分的收益可预测性的强度取决于单个应计项目组成部分与CFO之间的相关性强度。最后,我们将分析扩展到与应计项目相关的大型会计基础回报预测因子,并且仍然发现预测变量与CFO之间负相关的公司的回报可预测性更强。
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引用次数: 0
Empirical Asset Pricing with Multi-Period Disaster Risk: A Simulation-Based Approach 基于模拟的多期灾害风险资产定价方法
Pub Date : 2020-05-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3377345
J. Sönksen, J. Grammig
We propose a simulation-based strategy to estimate and empirically assess a class of asset pricing models that account for rare but severe consumption contractions that can extend over multiple periods. Our approach expands the scope of prevalent calibration studies and tackles the inherent sample selection problem associated with measuring the effect of rare disaster risk on asset prices. An analysis based on postwar U.S. and historical multi-country panel data yields estimates of investor preference parameters that are economically plausible and robust with respect to alternative specifications. The estimated model withstands tests of validity; the model-implied key financial indicators and timing premium all have reasonable magnitudes. These findings suggest that the rare disaster hypothesis can help restore the nexus between the real economy and financial markets when allowing for multi-period disaster events. Our methodological contribution is a new econometric framework for empirical asset pricing with rare disaster risk.
我们提出了一种基于模拟的策略来估计和经验评估一类资产定价模型,这些模型考虑了可能持续多个时期的罕见但严重的消费收缩。我们的方法扩展了普遍校准研究的范围,并解决了与测量罕见灾害风险对资产价格的影响相关的固有样本选择问题。基于战后美国和历史多国面板数据的分析产生了投资者偏好参数的估计,这些参数在经济上是合理的,并且相对于替代规范是稳健的。估计模型经得起有效性检验;模型隐含的关键财务指标和时机溢价均具有合理的幅度。这些发现表明,当考虑到多时期的灾难事件时,罕见灾害假设有助于恢复实体经济与金融市场之间的联系。我们在方法上的贡献是为具有罕见灾害风险的经验资产定价提供了一个新的计量经济学框架。
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引用次数: 4
Loan Prime Rate Options 贷款优惠利率选择
Pub Date : 2020-05-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3605156
Zhanyu Chen, Kai Zhang, Hongbiao Zhao
In this paper, we document vanilla interest-rate options (caps, floors and swaptions) newly introduced in China. The underlying rates are the RMB loan prime rates (LPRs), the foremost interest rates that matter to almost all businesses and households in China. They are digital with a tick size of five basis points, and the changes only occur at predetermined monthly announcement times. Although the current literature on interest-rate options is vast, these unique stylised features bring a new challenge for interest-rate option pricing. We propose a novel market model built upon the integer-valued Skellam distribution, named Skellam market model. It is simple and analytically tractable, which leads to pricing formulas in closed forms. We advocate that it is more meaningful to quote the LPR option prices in terms of the implied intensity rather than the conventional implied volatility. Our preliminary empirical work finds intensity frown implied from cap prices and intensity skew implied from swaption prices.
在本文中,我们记录了中国新引入的普通利率期权(上限、下限和互换)。基础利率是人民币贷款优惠利率(lpr),这是对中国几乎所有企业和家庭都至关重要的利率。它们是数字的,刻度大小为五个基点,并且只在预定的每月公告时间发生变化。尽管目前关于利率期权的文献很多,但这些独特的风格化特征给利率期权定价带来了新的挑战。本文提出了一种基于整数值Skellam分布的市场模型,称为Skellam市场模型。它简单且易于分析,这导致了封闭形式的定价公式。我们主张用隐含强度来报价LPR期权价格比用常规隐含波动率来报价更有意义。我们的初步实证工作发现,上限价格隐含的强度皱眉和互换价格隐含的强度倾斜。
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引用次数: 1
Capital Share, Consumption Volatility and Long-run Redistribution Risks 资本份额、消费波动与长期再分配风险
Pub Date : 2020-05-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3649112
Xiaoyu Zong
Pricing of capital share risks provides a novel link between macroeconomics and finance. Our paper adopts the Epstein-Zin type utility framework and the Bansal and Yaron’s (2004) long-run risk model to derive an heterogeneous asset pricing model that extends Lettau et al.’s (2019) capital share study. Our model introduce heterogeneity within the stock market and highlights the role of elevated consumption volatility of high income stockholders in capital risks. We also uncover contracting evidences as the capital share growth has strong volatility effects in the short-run and capital share variability enters systematic risks in the long-run.
资本份额风险的定价为宏观经济和金融之间提供了一种新的联系。本文采用Epstein-Zin型效用框架和Bansal and Yaron(2004)的长期风险模型,推导了一种异构资产定价模型,该模型扩展了Lettau et al.(2019)的资本份额研究。我们的模型引入了股票市场内部的异质性,并强调了高收入股东的消费波动性在资本风险中的作用。资本份额增长在短期内具有较强的波动效应,而资本份额变异性在长期内进入系统性风险。
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引用次数: 1
A Jump-Diffusion Process for Asset Price with Non-Independent Jumps 非独立跳跃资产价格的跳跃-扩散过程
Pub Date : 2020-04-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3089996
Yihren Wu, Majnu John
A market recovery model, defined as a jump-diffusion model for the asset price where the jumps and the diffusion are not independent, is proposed. In this model a jump will be triggered when there is an unusually large downward movement over a certain time interval, and the jump size is correlated to this downward drop. We show that the market data supports such a model and parameter estimates based on market data is discussed. An explicit formula for the risk-neutral drift will be presented so that the option prices based on this model can be computed through Monte-Carlo simulation of the asset price. The characteristic function for the asset price is derived, through which the option prices can be computed by numerical integration. The volatility of asset classes in this model, defined by the variance swap (VIX) equation, is analyzed. A sensitivity study of the volatility with respect to jump parameters is performed. Results are compared to other well-known jump models.
提出了一个资产价格跳跃-扩散模型,其中跳跃和扩散是不独立的。在该模型中,当在一定的时间间隔内出现异常大的向下移动时,将触发跳跃,并且跳跃的大小与这种向下下降相关。我们证明了市场数据支持这种模型,并讨论了基于市场数据的参数估计。将给出风险中性漂移的显式公式,以便通过对资产价格的蒙特卡罗模拟计算基于该模型的期权价格。推导了资产价格的特征函数,通过该特征函数可以用数值积分法计算期权价格。分析了该模型中资产类别的波动率,并将其定义为方差互换(VIX)方程。对波动率随跳变参数的变化进行了敏感性研究。结果与其他已知的跳跃模型进行了比较。
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引用次数: 1
Characteristics of Model-Free Pricing Kernels 无模型定价核的特点
Pub Date : 2020-04-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3733838
Maxim Ulrich, Simon Walther
This study combines model-free conditional estimators for the risk-neutral and the physical distribution of equity returns to obtain daily measures for the pricing kernel at the monthly time horizon. Despite their time-varying nature, our pricing kernels are non-parametric, forward-looking, agnostic about preferences, economic state variables or their dynamics and rely only on minimal technical constraints. Still, our realized pricing kernel estimates are clearly linked to economic state variables like the term spread, the credit spread or liquidity. We decompose the expected variance of the log pricing kernel and find that jumps contribute a considerable portion to overall pricing kernel risk. Building on statistical tests, we confirm an U-shape in the pricing kernel at all times and find a strong link between variations in its magnitude and the variance risk premium. A central hump in the pricing kernel can be confirmed unconditionally, but appears to fade during crisis times.
本研究结合风险中性的无模型条件估计和股票收益的物理分布,以获得每月时间范围内定价核的每日度量。尽管它们具有时变的性质,但我们的定价内核是非参数的、前瞻性的、与偏好、经济状态变量或其动态无关的,并且只依赖于最小的技术约束。尽管如此,我们已实现的定价核心估计显然与经济状态变量(如期限价差、信用价差或流动性)有关。我们分解了对数定价核的期望方差,发现跳跃对整体定价核风险贡献了相当大的一部分。基于统计测试,我们在任何时候都确认了定价核的u形,并发现其大小变化与方差风险溢价之间存在很强的联系。价格内核的中心隆起可以无条件地得到确认,但在危机时期似乎会消退。
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引用次数: 0
Investment in Cryptocurrencies: A Perspective from Asset Pricing and Portfolio Theory 加密货币投资:基于资产定价和投资组合理论的视角
Pub Date : 2020-04-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3783764
M. Dempsey, Huy Nguyen Anh Pham, V. Ramiah
We consider the performance of cryptocurrencies in the light of fundamental asset pricing and portfolio theory. We observe how a traditional focus on reducing asset return volatility with Markowitz diversification actually misses the significance of such volatility for growth. The recognition that asset growth is more likely subject to exponential or continuously-compounding growth characteristics reveals that asset volatility can be exploited both across assets and across investment periods to deliver superior returns.
我们根据基本资产定价和投资组合理论来考虑加密货币的表现。我们观察到,通过马科维茨分散投资来降低资产回报波动性的传统关注,实际上忽略了这种波动性对增长的重要性。认识到资产增长更有可能受到指数或连续复合增长特征的影响,表明资产波动性可以跨资产和跨投资时期利用,以提供卓越的回报。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
ERN: Asset Pricing Models (Topic)
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