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A Methodology for Energy Usage Prediction in Long-Lasting Abnormal Events 长期异常事件的能源使用预测方法
Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1109/CogMI56440.2022.00023
Gabriele Maurina, Hajar Homayouni, Sudipto Ghosh, I. Ray, G. Duggan
Accurate energy consumption prediction is critical for proper resource allocation, meeting energy demand, and energy supply security. This work aims at developing a methodology for accurately modeling and predicting electricity consumption during abnormal long-lasting events, such as COVID-19 pandemic, which considerably affect consumption patterns in different types of premises. The proposed methodology involves three steps: (A) selects among multiple models the most accurate one in energy consumption prediction under normal conditions, (B) uses the selected model to analyze the impact of a specific abnormal event on energy consumption for various classes of premises, and (C) investigates which features contribute most to energy consumption prediction for abnormal conditions and which features can be added to improve such predictions.We use COVID-19 as a case study with datasets obtained from Fort Collins Utilities, which contain energy consumption data for residential and different sizes of commercial and industrial premises in the city of Fort Collins, Colorado, USA. We also use temperature records from NOAA and COVID-19 public orders from Larimer County.We validate the methodology by demonstrating that the methodology can help design a model suited for the pandemic situation using representative features, and as a result, accurately predict the energy consumption. Our results show that the MLP model selected by our methodology performs better than the other models even when they all use the COVID-related features. We also demonstrate that the methodology can help measure the impacts of the pandemic on the energy consumption.
准确的能源消费预测对资源合理配置、满足能源需求、保障能源供应至关重要。这项工作旨在开发一种方法,用于准确建模和预测异常长期事件(如COVID-19大流行)期间的用电量,这些事件会对不同类型房屋的消费模式产生很大影响。所提出的方法包括三个步骤:(A)在多个模型中选择最准确的正常情况下的能耗预测模型,(B)使用所选模型分析特定异常事件对各类房屋能耗的影响,以及(C)调查哪些特征对异常条件下的能耗预测贡献最大,哪些特征可以添加以改进此类预测。我们以COVID-19作为案例研究,使用从柯林斯堡公用事业公司获得的数据集,其中包含美国科罗拉多州柯林斯堡市住宅和不同规模的商业和工业场所的能耗数据。我们还使用了NOAA的温度记录和拉里默县的COVID-19公共订单。我们通过证明该方法可以使用代表性特征帮助设计适合大流行情况的模型,从而准确预测能源消耗,从而验证了该方法。我们的结果表明,我们的方法选择的MLP模型比其他模型表现更好,即使它们都使用与covid相关的特征。我们还证明,该方法可以帮助衡量大流行对能源消耗的影响。
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引用次数: 0
A Serverless Computing Fabric for Edge & Cloud 边缘和云的无服务器计算结构
Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1109/CogMI56440.2022.00011
Stefan Nastic, Philipp Raith, Alireza Furutanpey, Thomas W. Pusztai, S. Dustdar
Serverless computing has been establishing itself as a compelling paradigm for the development and of modern cloud-native applications. Serverless represents the next step in the evolution of cloud programming models, services and platforms, which is especially appealing due to its low management overhead, easy deployment, scale-to-zero and the promise of optimized costs. Recently, due to the advantages it offers, the serverless paradigm has been growing beyond traditional clouds, making its way to the Edge. The natural evolutionary step for serverless computing is to unify the Edge and the Cloud into what we refer to as Edge-Cloud Continuum. In this paper, we outline our vision of the Serverless Computing Fabric (SCF) for the Edge-Cloud continuum. We introduce the reference architecture for the SCF and show how it unlocks the full potential of the Edge-Cloud continuum. We also discuss main opportunities and challenges, which need to be overcome in order to achieve the vision of the Serverless Computing Fabric. Finally, we introduce key design principles together with core enabling runtime mechanisms, which are intended to serve as a research road map towards the Serverless Computing Fabric for Edge-Cloud continuum.
无服务器计算已经成为开发和现代云原生应用程序的一个引人注目的范例。无服务器代表了云编程模型、服务和平台发展的下一步,由于其低管理开销、易于部署、可扩展到零以及优化成本的承诺,它尤其具有吸引力。最近,由于无服务器模式提供的优势,它已经超越了传统云,向边缘发展。无服务器计算的自然进化步骤是将边缘和云统一为我们所说的边缘云连续体。在本文中,我们概述了我们对边缘云连续体的无服务器计算结构(SCF)的愿景。我们介绍了SCF的参考架构,并展示了它如何释放边缘云连续体的全部潜力。我们还讨论了为了实现无服务器计算结构的愿景,需要克服的主要机遇和挑战。最后,我们介绍了关键的设计原则以及核心启用运行时机制,旨在作为边缘云连续体的无服务器计算结构的研究路线图。
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引用次数: 7
Human vs. Artificial Intelligence 人类与人工智能
Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1109/CogMI56440.2022.00016
R. Baeza-Yates, Pablo Villoslada
In this essay we compare human and artificial intelligence from two points of view: computational and neuroscience. We discuss the differences and limitations of AI with respect to our intelligence, ending with three challenging areas that are already with us: neural technologies, responsible AI, and hybrid AI systems.
在这篇文章中,我们从两个角度来比较人类和人工智能:计算和神经科学。我们讨论了人工智能在我们智力方面的差异和局限性,最后讨论了我们已经面临的三个具有挑战性的领域:神经技术、负责任的人工智能和混合人工智能系统。
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引用次数: 1
Artificial Reasoning in the Streetscape 街景中的人工推理
Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1109/CogMI56440.2022.00015
A. Raglin, Sharon Sputz, Andrew Smyth
Army Research Laboratory’s Content Understanding Branch, Artificial Reasoning Team research objective is to enable systems to reason given existing and future information supporting shared understanding and providing enhanced capabilities for choices and decisions. Various reasoning approaches are used to form the “best” hypothesis from multiple modalities of data generating use cases and assessing their impact on decisions given multiple criteria. The NSF Engineering Research Center for Smart Streetscapes (CS3) convergent research is inspired by potential streetscape applications. Thus, real-time understanding of complex streetscapes correspondingly requires progress in fundamental engineering knowledge and enables exciting opportunities for deploying technology: A “smart streetscape” could instantly sense human behavior and safely guide individual within the environment, amplify emergency services, and protect people against threats and dangers. The ARL and CS3 collaboration centers around the overlapping challenge for situational awareness in complex environments and how the joint research efforts can generate potential capabilities. This paper will present concepts from existing research and ideas for new research to address these common questions and challenges.
陆军研究实验室内容理解部门人工推理小组的研究目标是使系统能够根据现有和未来的信息进行推理,支持共享理解,并为选择和决策提供增强的能力。使用各种推理方法从数据生成用例的多种模式中形成“最佳”假设,并评估它们对给定多个标准的决策的影响。美国国家科学基金会智能街景工程研究中心(CS3)的融合研究受到潜在街景应用的启发。因此,对复杂街景的实时理解相应地需要基础工程知识的进步,并为部署技术提供令人兴奋的机会:“智能街景”可以即时感知人类行为,并在环境中安全地引导个人,扩大紧急服务,并保护人们免受威胁和危险。ARL和CS3的合作主要围绕复杂环境中态势感知的重叠挑战,以及联合研究工作如何产生潜在能力。本文将介绍现有研究的概念和新研究的想法,以解决这些共同的问题和挑战。
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引用次数: 0
Collaboration, Self-Reflection, and Adaptation in Robot Communities: Using Multi-Agent Distributed Learning for Coordination Planning 机器人群体中的协作、自我反思与适应:多智能体分布式学习在协调规划中的应用
Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1109/CogMI56440.2022.00020
Javed Mostafa, W. Ke
Robotic communities are increasingly important in executing operations in a wide variety of industries. Before designing and deploying such robots it is important to determine and carefully plan the configuration, knowledge composition, and coordination strategies. Multi-agent simulation modeling offers a malleable and powerful way to conduct such planning and elucidate key parameters and their interactions associated with collaboration dynamics. The paper offers motivations, an adaptive learning scheme, and empirical evidence drawn from a few case studies. Among the key findings one is that complex tasks can be conducted effectively and efficiently over billions of robots without relying on a singular source of global knowledge. Another interesting finding is that through collaboration and emergent learning, robots can create communication channels among dominant players and less dominant intermediaries that are critical connectors across network overlays (representing clusters of specialists).
机器人社区在执行各种行业的操作方面越来越重要。在设计和部署这种机器人之前,确定和仔细规划配置、知识组成和协调策略是很重要的。多智能体仿真建模提供了一种可扩展且强大的方法来执行此类规划,并阐明与协作动态相关的关键参数及其相互作用。本文提供了动机、适应性学习方案以及从一些案例研究中得出的经验证据。其中一个重要发现是,复杂的任务可以在数十亿个机器人上有效地执行,而不依赖于单一的全球知识来源。另一个有趣的发现是,通过协作和紧急学习,机器人可以在占主导地位的参与者和不占主导地位的中介之间创建沟通渠道,这些中介是跨网络覆盖(代表专家集群)的关键连接器。
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引用次数: 0
Artificial Intelligence Meets Tactical Autonomy: Challenges and Perspectives 人工智能与战术自治:挑战与前景
Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1109/CogMI56440.2022.00017
D. Rawat
Artificial Intelligence (AI) enabled systems have shown tremendous impact in our national defense and in our society due to recent advances in artificial neural networks, deep learning, machine learning, and Internet of Things, big data, computing and communications. New AI capabilities can improve efficiency, trust, and efficacy for mission critical applications for tactical autonomy with minimal supervision from human operators in multi-domain battlefield (MDB) environments that are complex, contested and unpredictable. Although AI-enabled tools have been responsive to people and complementary to human capabilities, in order to realize its full potential in tactical applications, there are several challenges to be addressed for making trustworthy, ethical, fair, real-time explainable AI-enabled autonomous systems. Collaborations between platforms/systems as well as joint human-machine learning/teaming could address many of these issues to provide trusted and shared understanding and delivering cost-effective and adaptive systems to assist operations across military domains (space, air, land, maritime, and cyber) at combat speed using a shared set of resources. In this paper, we present some challenges and perspectives for AI enabled tactical autonomy.
近年来,人工智能(AI)系统在人工神经网络、深度学习、机器学习、物联网、大数据、计算和通信等领域取得了巨大进展,对我国国防和社会产生了巨大影响。在复杂、有争议和不可预测的多域战场(MDB)环境中,新的人工智能功能可以提高战术自主关键任务应用的效率、信任和功效,同时减少人工操作员的监督。尽管人工智能支持的工具已经对人做出了反应,并对人类的能力进行了补充,但为了充分发挥其在战术应用中的潜力,要制造可信、道德、公平、可实时解释的人工智能支持的自主系统,还需要解决几个挑战。平台/系统之间的协作以及联合人机学习/团队可以解决许多这些问题,提供可信和共享的理解,并提供具有成本效益和自适应的系统,以使用共享资源的战斗速度协助跨军事领域(太空、空中、陆地、海上和网络)的行动。在本文中,我们提出了人工智能战术自主的一些挑战和前景。
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引用次数: 4
New Heuristic Methods for Protein Model Quality Assessment via Two-Stage Machine Learning and Hierarchical Ensemble 基于两阶段机器学习和层次集成的蛋白质模型质量评估新启发式方法
Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1109/CogMI56440.2022.00022
Junlin Wang, Wenbo Wang, Yingzi Shang, Dong Xu
Computational protein structure prediction is an important problem in bioinformatics and the ability to accurately evaluating the quality of predicted protein models is of significant interest. In this paper, three new single-model quality assessment (QA) methods, MMQA-1 MMQA-2 and MMQA-HE, are proposed based on two-stage machine learning and hierarchical ensemble techniques. MMQA-1 and MMQA-2 train different machine learning models in two separate stages. They divide the entire feature set into two groups and uses completely different feature sets and training data in each stage to train a predictive model. MMQA-HE is an ensemble method that combines individual models not only at the tree level, but also at the forest level. In CASP14, MMQA-1 ranked No. 2 in terms of average GDT-TS difference. MMQA-2 and MMQA-HE improve MMQA-1 and outperform existing state-of-the-art QA methods across multiple QA performance metrics.
计算蛋白质结构预测是生物信息学中的一个重要问题,准确评估预测蛋白质模型质量的能力具有重要意义。本文基于两阶段机器学习和层次集成技术,提出了MMQA-1、MMQA-2和MMQA-HE三种新的单模型质量评估方法。MMQA-1和MMQA-2在两个独立的阶段训练不同的机器学习模型。他们将整个特征集分成两组,在每一阶段使用完全不同的特征集和训练数据来训练预测模型。MMQA-HE是一种集成方法,不仅在树级,而且在森林级结合了各个模型。在CASP14中,MMQA-1在GDT-TS平均差异方面排名第二。MMQA-2和MMQA-HE改进了MMQA-1,并且在多个QA性能指标上优于现有的最先进的QA方法。
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引用次数: 0
Inference for Trustworthy Machine Intelligence: Challenges and Solutions 可信机器智能的推理:挑战与解决方案
Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1109/CogMI56440.2022.00014
D. Verma
In order to create AI/ML based solutions that will be trusted during production, issues that hamper usage of AI models in practical solutions needs to be addressed. Despite a significant interest in the area of AI/ML, the primary focus of the research community has been on the training of AI models, including their performance, trustworthiness, explainability and scalability. Training, however, is only one half of the work required to create an AI-based solution. The other half, using the trained model for inference during operations, is mistakenly considered a relatively mundane task. As a result, challenges arising in model inference time has received comparatively scant attention. Inference is when AI model is put into practice, resulting in many challenges that are worth the attention of the research community. Despite the existence of several pre-trained models on many Internet sites, anyone trying to build an AI/ML based solution would be hard-pressed to find a model that is useful, trustworthy and reliable, or suitable for the task. Even when a custom model is trained, the solution often falters because the use of model fails to account for the differences in the training and inference environment. In this paper, we identify those challenges and discuss how we can design a generic inference server for trustworthy AI/ML based solutions.
为了创建在生产过程中受信任的基于AI/ML的解决方案,需要解决阻碍AI模型在实际解决方案中使用的问题。尽管对人工智能/机器学习领域有很大的兴趣,但研究界的主要焦点一直放在人工智能模型的训练上,包括它们的性能、可信度、可解释性和可扩展性。然而,培训只是创建基于人工智能的解决方案所需工作的一半。另一半,在操作过程中使用训练好的模型进行推理,被错误地认为是一项相对平凡的任务。因此,模型推理时间方面的挑战相对较少受到关注。推理是人工智能模型付诸实践的过程,产生了许多值得研究界关注的挑战。尽管在许多互联网站点上存在几个预训练模型,但任何试图构建基于AI/ML的解决方案的人都很难找到一个有用的、值得信赖的、可靠的或适合该任务的模型。即使训练了自定义模型,解决方案也经常会出现问题,因为模型的使用无法解释训练和推理环境中的差异。在本文中,我们确定了这些挑战,并讨论了如何为可信的基于AI/ML的解决方案设计通用推理服务器。
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引用次数: 0
Face Biometric Fairness Evaluation on Real vs Synthetic Cross-Spectral Images 真实与合成交叉光谱图像的人脸生物特征公平性评价
Pub Date : 2022-09-19 DOI: 10.1109/CogMI56440.2022.00024
K. Lai, V. Shmerko, S. Yanushkevich
In this paper, we compare the performance and fairness metrics on visual and thermal images of faces, including the synthetic images of human subjects with face masks. The comparative experiment is performed on two datasets: the SpeakingFace and Thermal-Mask dataset. We assess fairness on real images and show how the same process can be applied to synthetic images. The chosen fairness metrics include demographic parity difference and equalized odds difference. While the demographic parity difference is assessed as 1.24 for random guessing in the process of face identification, it reaches 5.0 when both the precision and recall rate approach 99.99%. These results confirm that inherently biased datasets significantly impact the fairness of any biometric system. For biometric-enabled systems, fairness is related to the adequacy of the data to represent different groups of human subjects. In this paper, we focus on three demographic groups: age, gender, and ethnicity. A primary cause of biases with respect to these groups is the class imbalance introduced through the data collection process. To address the imbalanced datasets, the classes with fewer samples can be augmented with synthetic images to generate a more balanced dataset, resulting in less bias when training a machine learning system. The study shows that fairness is correlated to the performance of the system rather than to the genesis of the images (real or synthetic). The experiment on a simple 3-Block CNN with a precision and recall rate of 99.99% using the demographic parity difference as an estimate of fairness showed that among gender, ethnicity, and age, the latter is an attribute that is the most sensitive while age is the least one.
在本文中,我们比较了人脸视觉图像和热图像的性能和公平性指标,包括人类受试者戴口罩的合成图像。在SpeakingFace和Thermal-Mask两个数据集上进行了对比实验。我们评估了真实图像的公平性,并展示了如何将相同的过程应用于合成图像。所选择的公平指标包括人口均等差异和均等赔率差异。在人脸识别过程中,随机猜测的人口统计等值差为1.24,当准确率和召回率均接近99.99%时,人口统计等值差达到5.0。这些结果证实,固有偏见的数据集显著影响任何生物识别系统的公平性。对于支持生物识别的系统,公平性与代表不同人类受试者群体的数据的充分性有关。在本文中,我们关注三个人口群体:年龄、性别和种族。对这些群体产生偏见的主要原因是通过数据收集过程引入的阶级不平衡。为了解决不平衡的数据集,可以用合成图像增强样本较少的类,以生成更平衡的数据集,从而在训练机器学习系统时减少偏差。研究表明,公平性与系统的性能相关,而与图像的起源(真实的或合成的)无关。在一个准确率和召回率为99.99%的简单3块CNN上进行的实验表明,在性别、种族和年龄中,后者是最敏感的属性,而年龄是最不敏感的属性。
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引用次数: 0
Constructive Interpretability with CoLabel: Corroborative Integration, Complementary Features, and Collaborative Learning 建构性可解释性与标签:确证整合、互补特征与协作学习
Pub Date : 2022-05-20 DOI: 10.1109/CogMI56440.2022.00021
Abhijit Suprem, Sanjyot Vaidya, Suma Cherkadi, Purva Singh, J. E. Ferreira, C. Pu
Machine learning models with explainable predictions are increasingly sought after, especially for real-world, mission-critical applications that require bias detection and risk mitigation. Inherent interpretability, where a model is designed from the ground-up for interpretability, provides intuitive insights and transparent explanations on model prediction and performance. In this paper, we present CoLabel, an approach to build interpretable models with explanations rooted in the ground truth. We demonstrate CoLabel in a vehicle feature extraction application in the context of vehicle make-model recognition (VMMR). By construction, CoLabel performs VMMR with a composite of interpretable features such as vehicle color, type, and make, all based on interpretable annotations of the ground truth labels. First, CoLabel performs corroborative integration to join multiple datasets that each have a subset of desired annotations of color, type, and make. Then, CoLabel uses decomposable branches to extract complementary features corresponding to desired annotations. Finally, CoLabel fuses them together for final predictions. During feature fusion, CoLabel harmonizes complementary branches so that VMMR features are compatible with each other and can be projected to the same semantic space for classification. With inherent interpretability, CoLabel achieves superior performance to the state-of-the-art black-box models, with accuracy of 0.98, 0.95, and 0.94 on CompCars, Cars196, and BoxCars116K, respectively. CoLabel provides intuitive explanations due to constructive interpretability, and subsequently achieves high accuracy and usability in mission-critical situations.
具有可解释预测的机器学习模型越来越受到追捧,特别是对于需要偏差检测和风险缓解的现实世界关键任务应用程序。固有的可解释性,即模型是为了可解释性而从头开始设计的,它为模型预测和性能提供了直观的见解和透明的解释。在本文中,我们提出了CoLabel,这是一种建立可解释模型的方法,其解释植根于基本事实。我们在车辆制造模型识别(VMMR)背景下的车辆特征提取应用中演示了CoLabel。通过构建,CoLabel使用车辆颜色、类型和制造等可解释特征的组合来执行VMMR,所有这些特征都基于地面真值标签的可解释注释。首先,CoLabel执行确证集成来连接多个数据集,每个数据集都有所需的颜色、类型和制作注释的子集。然后,CoLabel使用可分解分支提取与所需注释对应的互补特征。最后,CoLabel将它们融合在一起进行最终预测。在特征融合过程中,CoLabel协调互补分支,使VMMR特征相互兼容,并可以投射到相同的语义空间进行分类。凭借固有的可解释性,CoLabel在CompCars、Cars196和BoxCars116K上的准确率分别为0.98、0.95和0.94,优于最先进的黑箱模型。由于具有建设性的可解释性,CoLabel提供了直观的解释,随后在关键任务情况下实现了高精度和可用性。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
2022 IEEE 4th International Conference on Cognitive Machine Intelligence (CogMI)
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