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A review of ENSO teleconnections at present and under future global warming 当前和未来全球变暖背景下ENSO遥相关的综述
Pub Date : 2023-09-21 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.861
Omid Alizadeh
Abstract The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major component of the Earth's climate that largely influences global climate variability through long‐distance teleconnections. Rossby wave trains emerging from the tropical convection and their propagation into extratropical regions are the key mechanism for tropical and extratropical teleconnections. Despite significant progress in the understanding of ENSO teleconnections over the recent past decades, several important issues have remained to be addressed. The global atmospheric teleconnections of ENSO vary substantially with the seasonal cycle, on the decadal timescale, and under the influence of global warming. It is essential to separate the internal decadal variability of ENSO teleconnections from changes caused by the external forcing of global warming. However, the post‐satellite observations are not long enough to compose a large number of ENSO events to distinguish the decadal variability of ENSO teleconnections from changes related to increasing greenhouse concentrations. The current climate models also suffer from common biases, such that they are unable to properly reproduce both the tropical mean state and some features of ENSO. Nevertheless, observational records can be extended back in time via reconstruction methods. Efforts have also already been made to remove some main common biases of climate models and to improve the representation of ENSO characteristics. The reliable reconstructed data along with a large number of ensemble members of the improved climate model simulations can be applied to advance our understanding of ENSO global teleconnections and their responses to internal decadal variability and externally forced global warming. This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Modern Climate Change Climate Models and Modeling > Earth System Models Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change
厄尔Niño -南方涛动(ENSO)是地球气候的一个主要组成部分,它通过远距离遥相关在很大程度上影响全球气候变率。热带对流产生的罗斯比波列及其向温带地区的传播是热带和温带遥相关的关键机制。尽管在过去的几十年里,对ENSO远程连接的理解取得了重大进展,但仍有几个重要问题有待解决。ENSO的全球大气遥相关在季节周期、年代际尺度和全球变暖的影响下变化很大。必须将ENSO遥相关的内部年代际变率与全球变暖的外部强迫引起的变化区分开来。然而,卫星后观测的时间还不够长,无法形成大量的ENSO事件来区分ENSO遥相关的年代际变率与温室浓度增加相关的变化。目前的气候模式也存在普遍的偏差,因此它们不能正确地再现热带平均状态和ENSO的某些特征。然而,观测记录可以通过重建方法延长时间。人们也已经在努力消除气候模式的一些主要的共同偏差,并改进ENSO特征的表现。这些可靠的重建数据以及改进气候模式模拟的大量集合成员可以应用于加深我们对ENSO全球遥相关及其对内部年代际变率和外部强迫全球变暖的响应的理解。本文分类如下:古气候和当前趋势;现代气候变化气候模式与模拟>评估气候变化影响的地球系统模型评估未来气候变化的影响
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引用次数: 1
Carbon removal demonstrations and problems of public perception 除碳示范及公众认知问题
Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.857
Laurie Waller, Emily Cox, Rob Bellamy
Expectations about the future removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere have mobilized projects which seek to demonstrate carbon removal methods, at various stages of development. Public perceptions play a critical role in demonstrations and funders widely require demonstration projects to identify and consult affected groups and communities. This review examines the extant research on perceptions of carbon removal, analyzing how studies have conceptualized the public and the role perceptions play in field trials and experiments of carbon removal methods. The paper develops a novel analytical framework distinguishing between “procedural” and “performative” approaches to demonstrations. Attending to performativity, we suggest, makes clear why demonstration projects often surface conflicting expectations about future technology development. We apply the analytical framework to the academic literature on perceptions of carbon removal using a systematic search and interpretive review. We find that much perceptions research on carbon removal adopts elements from linear models of innovation, foregrounding the problem of social acceptance and distancing the public from experimental presentations and displays. We situate these findings in a discussion of the roles that expectations about carbon removal play in demonstrations and the positioning of perceptions research as a tool for managing “opposition” from external audiences. Moving beyond instrumental approaches to public perception, the review makes the case for closer engagement in perceptions research with conflicting expectations that emerge around projects demonstrating the “promise” of carbon removal.This article is categorized under: The Social Status of Climate Change Knowledge > Knowledge and Practice Perceptions, Behavior, and Communication of Climate Change > Perceptions of Climate Change Climate, History, Society, Culture > Technological Aspects and Ideas
对未来从大气中去除二氧化碳的期望已经动员了一些项目,这些项目试图在不同的发展阶段展示碳去除方法。公众的看法在示范中起着关键作用,资助者普遍要求示范项目确定受影响的群体和社区,并征求他们的意见。本文回顾了现有的关于碳去除感知的研究,分析了研究如何将公众概念化以及感知在碳去除方法的现场试验和实验中所起的作用。本文开发了一个新的分析框架来区分“程序性”和“表演性”的论证方法。我们认为,关注表演性可以清楚地解释为什么示范项目往往会对未来技术发展产生相互冲突的期望。我们使用系统搜索和解释性审查将分析框架应用于关于碳去除感知的学术文献。我们发现,许多关于碳去除的认知研究采用了创新线性模型的元素,突出了社会接受问题,并使公众与实验演示和展示保持距离。我们将这些发现置于对碳去除预期在示威活动中所起作用的讨论中,并将感知研究定位为管理外部受众“反对”的工具。该报告超越了对公众认知的工具方法,提出了更密切地参与认知研究的理由,这些认知研究与围绕展示碳去除“承诺”的项目出现的相互矛盾的期望有关。本文分类如下:气候变化知识的社会地位;气候变化的认识与实践、认知、行为与传播气候、历史、社会、文化与气候变化的认识技术方面和理念
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引用次数: 0
Carbon tax ethics 碳税伦理
Pub Date : 2023-09-06 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.858
Kian Mintz‐Woo
Ideal carbon tax policy is internationally coordinated, fully internalizes externalities, redistributes revenues to those harmed, and is politically acceptable, generating predictable market signals. Since nonideal circumstances rarely allow all these conditions to be met, moral issues arise. This paper surveys some of the work in moral philosophy responding to several of these issues. First, it discusses the moral drivers for estimates of the social cost of carbon. Second, it explains how national self‐interest can block climate action and suggests international policies—carbon border tax adjustments and carbon clubs—that can help address these concerns. Third, it introduces some of the social science literature about the political acceptability of carbon taxes before addressing a couple common public concerns about carbon taxes. Finally, it introduces four carbon revenue usage options, arguing that redistributive and climate compensation measures are most morally justified.This article is categorized under:Climate, Nature, and Ethics > Ethics and Climate ChangeClimate, Nature, and Ethics > Climate Change and Global JusticeClimate and Development > Social Justice and the Politics of Development
理想的碳税政策是国际协调的,充分内部化外部性,将收入重新分配给那些受到损害的人,在政治上是可接受的,产生可预测的市场信号。由于非理想环境很少允许满足所有这些条件,道德问题就出现了。本文回顾了一些道德哲学方面的工作,以回应其中的几个问题。首先,它讨论了估算碳社会成本的道德驱动因素。其次,它解释了国家自身利益如何阻碍气候行动,并提出了有助于解决这些问题的国际政策——碳边境税调整和碳俱乐部。第三,在解决公众对碳税的一些普遍担忧之前,它介绍了一些关于碳税的政治可接受性的社会科学文献。最后,它介绍了四种碳收入使用方案,认为再分配和气候补偿措施在道德上是最合理的。本文分类如下:气候、自然与伦理>伦理与气候变化>气候、自然与伦理>气候变化与全球正义>气候与发展>社会正义与发展政治
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引用次数: 0
Two faces of vulnerability: Distinguishing susceptibility to harm and system resilience in climate adaptation 脆弱性的两个方面:区分对危害的易感性和气候适应中的系统复原力
Pub Date : 2023-08-13 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.856
Kenneth Shockley
In the climate adaptation literature, we can distinguish two seemingly distinct frameworks for the concept of vulnerability. We might think of vulnerability in terms of susceptibility to harm. Some discussions of vulnerability accordingly focus on the risk posed to well‐being. Alternatively, we might think of vulnerability in terms of a system's responsiveness to adverse conditions, often spelled out in terms of resilience. This article highlights and distinguishes these frameworks through a brief survey of climate adaptation literature. Understanding the relationship between these two frameworks is vital not only for conceptual clarity, but also for developing adaptation strategies that respond to the different sorts of vulnerabilities posed by climate change. Mitigating the vulnerability of an individual at risk of harm might well complicate efforts at mitigating the vulnerabilities of systems in which that individual is embedded. Humans are clearly at risk of harm from a changing climate, and changing climate challenges the resilience of systems on which humans depend. The paper concludes with a brief consideration of the vulnerabilities that arise from the dissociation of people from their environments. Dissociation, whether through the migration of people or through changes to environmental background conditions not only makes clear the dual nature of vulnerabilities, but also serves as a lens through which we might consider the prospects for integrating a more cohesive account of vulnerability into successful climate adaptation strategies.This article is categorized under:Climate, Nature, and Ethics > Ethics and Climate ChangeVulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Values‐Based Approach to Vulnerability and Adaptation
在气候适应文献中,我们可以区分出两种看似不同的脆弱性概念框架。我们可能会认为脆弱是对伤害的易感性。因此,一些关于脆弱性的讨论侧重于对福祉构成的风险。或者,我们可以根据系统对不利条件的响应性来考虑脆弱性,通常用弹性来阐述。本文通过对气候适应文献的简要综述,突出并区分了这些框架。了解这两个框架之间的关系不仅对概念的明晰至关重要,而且对制定适应战略以应对气候变化带来的各种脆弱性也至关重要。减轻有受伤害风险的个人的脆弱性可能会使减轻该个人所处的系统的脆弱性的努力复杂化。人类显然面临着气候变化的危害风险,而气候变化对人类赖以生存的系统的复原力提出了挑战。本文最后简要地考虑了由于人们与环境分离而产生的脆弱性。无论是通过人口迁移还是通过环境背景条件的变化,分离不仅明确了脆弱性的双重性质,而且还可以作为一个镜头,通过它我们可以考虑将脆弱性的更有凝聚力的描述纳入成功的气候适应战略的前景。本文分类如下:气候、自然与伦理>伦理与气候变化脆弱性与适应气候变化>基于价值观的脆弱性与适应方法
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引用次数: 0
Towards a climate‐smart cultural heritage management 走向气候智能型文化遗产管理
Pub Date : 2023-07-21 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.855
S. Fatorić, Cathy Daly
Globally, cultural heritage is on the front line of anthropogenic climate change. Therefore, it could be argued that climate change should now be a primary lens through which cultural heritage conservation and management are viewed. We argue that addressing the growing and compounding risks and impacts of climate change requires a fundamental rethink and transformation of cultural heritage management and policy. In this article, we propose a climate‐smart cultural heritage (CSCH) approach that captures the notion that climate adaptation can be developed and implemented within the heritage sector to simultaneously reduce the impacts of changing climate and variability on tangible and intangible cultural heritage and provide co‐benefits for climate change mitigation while also enhancing human security at different spatial scales. The CSCH is an integrated approach to implementing forward‐looking and transformative cultural heritage management and policy and is not a new set of practices to be advocated to cultural heritage stakeholders and decision‐makers. Findings also demonstrate that institutional mechanisms such as multi‐stakeholder planning, increased awareness of the economic, social, and environmental benefits of diverse cultural heritage, improved cross‐sectoral coordination and communication, strong political will for transformative approaches, and investments in CSCH are necessary for implementation of CSCH.
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引用次数: 0
Innocent heroes or self‐absorbed alarmists? A thematic review of the variety and effects of storylines about young people in climate change discourses 无辜的英雄还是自恋的危言耸听者?对气候变化话语中关于年轻人的故事情节的多样性和影响进行专题审查
Pub Date : 2023-07-06 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.853
C. Jones, A. Davison, C. Lucas
Discourses about young people are interacting with climate change discourses in ways that often marginalize the young in social responses to climate change. The resulting stories about young people in a changing climate build upon long‐standing representations of youthhood in late modern societies as a liminal, ill‐defined state between childhood and adulthood. The social and behavioral sciences have both helped produce these stories and critically examined their origins, characteristics, and effects. This article offers a novel critical review of ideas about young people in climate change research across a wide variety of disciplines and fields, including geography, psychology, sociology, education, political studies, health studies, media studies, legal studies, and youth studies. We employ Hajer's account of discursive storylines to identify seven ways in which young people are storied in climate discourses. While distinct, stories of young people as innocent, vulnerable, heroic, alarmist, inheriting, apathetic or narcissistic overlap, and interact. This variety of storylines reflects the mutable category of young people and the deliberate ambiguity with which it is often deployed. We use this typology in three ways to advance the interests of young people in climate change discourses. First, we show how these discourses are indebted to while also changing understandings of young people in late modern societies. Second, we consider the potential impacts of these stories on young lives and on responses to climate change. Third, we identify prospects for new stories to emerge as young voices become increasingly important in urgent social discussions of climate change.
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引用次数: 1
Abandon the idea of an “optimal economic path” for climate policy 放弃气候政策“最优经济路径”的想法
Pub Date : 2023-07-02 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.850
J. Koomey, K. Hausker, Zachary Schmidt, D. Lashof
Many economic modelers believe that there is an “optimal economic path” for solving the climate problem that exists independent of human choices. This belief rests on the notion that Integrated Assessment Models can determine the path that “maximizes global welfare” and, in turn, this path should drive climate policy. This commentary focuses on an under‐appreciated problem with that belief. We argue that the existence of pervasive increasing returns to scale, network externalities, learning curves, spillovers, and other nonlinear effects puts the idea of a single optimal economic path at odds with our current understanding of the most important forces driving the development of real economic and technological systems. We further argue that this idea is detrimental to rigorous understanding of climate solutions.
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引用次数: 0
When will a changing climate outpace adaptive evolution? 气候变化何时会超过适应性进化?
Pub Date : 2023-06-28 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.852
Ryan Andrew Martin, C. R. D. da Silva, M. P. Moore, S. Diamond
Decades of research have illuminated the underlying ingredients that determine the scope of evolutionary responses to climate change. The field of evolutionary biology therefore stands ready to take what it has learned about influences upon the rate of adaptive evolution—such as population demography, generation time, and standing genetic variation—and apply it to assess if and how populations can evolve fast enough to “keep pace” with climate change. Here, our review highlights what the field of evolutionary biology can contribute and what it still needs to learn to provide more mechanistic predictions of the winners and losers of climate change. We begin by developing broad predictions for contemporary evolution to climate change based on theory. We then discuss methods for assessing climate‐driven contemporary evolution, including quantitative genetic studies, experimental evolution, and space‐for‐time substitutions. After providing this mechanism‐focused overview of both the evidence for evolutionary responses to climate change and more specifically, evolving to keep pace with climate change, we next consider the factors that limit actual evolutionary responses. In this context, we consider the dual role of phenotypic plasticity in facilitating but also impeding evolutionary change. Finally, we detail how a deeper consideration of evolutionary constraints can improve forecasts of responses to climate change and therefore also inform conservation and management decisions.
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引用次数: 2
Imperialism, colonialism, and climate change science 帝国主义、殖民主义和气候变化科学
Pub Date : 2023-06-21 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.851
Harriet J. Mercer, Thomas Simpson
Historical studies of the influence of imperialism and colonialism on climate science have yet to be brought together into a critical synthesis. This advanced review offers a critical overview of the key themes of this literature with the primary intention of enabling historians and other scholars to recognize, specify, and acknowledge the roles of imperial and colonial processes in shaping scientific framings of climate. Following a brief overview of debates in older literature over the significance of imperialism and colonialism in climate sciences, the article investigates the wealth of recent scholarship that demonstrates specific and diverse connections between empires and climate science. Major features of this scholarship include: the role and the erasure of Indigenous and local knowledge; imperial climate infrastructures and visions; and climate data and theories in land empires as well as in informal empires and neocolonial settings. Through critically engaging these themes, the article seeks to help historians identify avenues for future research.
{"title":"Imperialism, colonialism, and climate change science","authors":"Harriet J. Mercer, Thomas Simpson","doi":"10.1002/wcc.851","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.851","url":null,"abstract":"Historical studies of the influence of imperialism and colonialism on climate science have yet to be brought together into a critical synthesis. This advanced review offers a critical overview of the key themes of this literature with the primary intention of enabling historians and other scholars to recognize, specify, and acknowledge the roles of imperial and colonial processes in shaping scientific framings of climate. Following a brief overview of debates in older literature over the significance of imperialism and colonialism in climate sciences, the article investigates the wealth of recent scholarship that demonstrates specific and diverse connections between empires and climate science. Major features of this scholarship include: the role and the erasure of Indigenous and local knowledge; imperial climate infrastructures and visions; and climate data and theories in land empires as well as in informal empires and neocolonial settings. Through critically engaging these themes, the article seeks to help historians identify avenues for future research.","PeriodicalId":212421,"journal":{"name":"WIREs Climate Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123902426","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Globalization and decarbonization: Changing strategies of global oil and gas companies 全球化与脱碳:全球油气公司不断变化的战略
Pub Date : 2023-06-19 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.849
Yuefang Guo, Yu Yang, M. Bradshaw, Chang Wang, Mathieu Blondeel
Oil and gas (O&G) companies, as key players in the contemporary global energy landscape, have evolved within the context of a dynamic interaction between states and markets. However, their role is being transformed radically by two successive “global shifts”: economic globalization—driving energy demand growth patterns—and climate change—driving energy system transformation and decarbonization, both of which require them to reconsider their business strategies. Using an interdisciplinary lens that draws on human geography, strategy and international business, and international political economy, we propose an integrated conceptual framework for two periods—the 1990s–early 2010s and the post‐Paris Agreement era—to explore the nature of strategic responses by O&G companies to these global economic and environmental shifts. We illustrate the linkage of O&G companies' two strategies of (re‐)globalization and decarbonization by the aspects of production, finance, and knowledge as internal structures. Energy security is one of the priorities in the macro external environment. It is becoming increasingly difficult for O&G companies to deal with current dilemmas: climate goals require a significant reduction in fossil fuel production and consumption, and pressures from governments, nongovernmental organizations, and investors threaten the long‐term survival of O&G companies, while fossil fuel demand will remain high in the short to medium term. At the same time, the post‐pandemic recovery and Russia's war in Ukraine are resulting in a re‐assessment of the benefits of unfettered globalization. Therefore, global O&G companies face dual challenges in the new era of (re‐)globalization and decarbonization and need to make changes to ensure their future viability.
{"title":"Globalization and decarbonization: Changing strategies of global oil and gas companies","authors":"Yuefang Guo, Yu Yang, M. Bradshaw, Chang Wang, Mathieu Blondeel","doi":"10.1002/wcc.849","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.849","url":null,"abstract":"Oil and gas (O&G) companies, as key players in the contemporary global energy landscape, have evolved within the context of a dynamic interaction between states and markets. However, their role is being transformed radically by two successive “global shifts”: economic globalization—driving energy demand growth patterns—and climate change—driving energy system transformation and decarbonization, both of which require them to reconsider their business strategies. Using an interdisciplinary lens that draws on human geography, strategy and international business, and international political economy, we propose an integrated conceptual framework for two periods—the 1990s–early 2010s and the post‐Paris Agreement era—to explore the nature of strategic responses by O&G companies to these global economic and environmental shifts. We illustrate the linkage of O&G companies' two strategies of (re‐)globalization and decarbonization by the aspects of production, finance, and knowledge as internal structures. Energy security is one of the priorities in the macro external environment. It is becoming increasingly difficult for O&G companies to deal with current dilemmas: climate goals require a significant reduction in fossil fuel production and consumption, and pressures from governments, nongovernmental organizations, and investors threaten the long‐term survival of O&G companies, while fossil fuel demand will remain high in the short to medium term. At the same time, the post‐pandemic recovery and Russia's war in Ukraine are resulting in a re‐assessment of the benefits of unfettered globalization. Therefore, global O&G companies face dual challenges in the new era of (re‐)globalization and decarbonization and need to make changes to ensure their future viability.","PeriodicalId":212421,"journal":{"name":"WIREs Climate Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116674433","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
期刊
WIREs Climate Change
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