Ștefan Ionescu, Gabriel Dumitrescu, Corina Ioanăș, Camelia Delcea
Our study investigates the relevance and application of key performance indicators (KPIs) and key risk indicators (KRIs) in business management from 1992 to 2023 through a comprehensive bibliometric analysis performed in RStudio using the Bibliometrix platform and in VOSviewer. Utilizing data from the Web of Science database, we identify trends, key themes, and influential research in this domain, observing an annual growth rate of 17.76%. Our analyses include the top 10 most globally cited documents, word clouds based on authors’ keywords and Keywords Plus, clustering by coupling, co-occurrence networks, and factorial analysis. Our findings reveal a significant increase in research interest post-2004, with sustainability and corporate social responsibility emerging as central themes. We confirm positive correlations between KPIs, improved organizational performance, and effective risk management via KRIs. This research underscores the importance of international collaboration and diverse thematic exploration in advancing the field.
我们的研究通过在 RStudio 中使用 Bibliometrix 平台和 VOSviewer 进行的综合文献计量分析，探讨了 1992 年至 2023 年关键绩效指标（KPI）和关键风险指标（KRI）在企业管理中的相关性和应用。利用来自 Web of Science 数据库的数据，我们确定了该领域的趋势、关键主题和有影响力的研究，观察到年增长率为 17.76%。我们的分析包括全球引用率最高的前 10 篇文献、基于作者关键词和 Keywords Plus 的词云、耦合聚类、共现网络和因子分析。我们的研究结果表明，2004 年以后，研究兴趣明显增加，可持续发展和企业社会责任成为核心主题。我们证实了关键绩效指标、组织绩效的提高以及通过关键绩效指标进行有效风险管理之间的正相关关系。这项研究强调了国际合作和多元化主题探索对推动该领域发展的重要性。
{"title":"Mapping the Landscape of Key Performance and Key Risk Indicators in Business: A Comprehensive Bibliometric Analysis","authors":"Ștefan Ionescu, Gabriel Dumitrescu, Corina Ioanăș, Camelia Delcea","doi":"10.3390/risks12080125","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/risks12080125","url":null,"abstract":"Our study investigates the relevance and application of key performance indicators (KPIs) and key risk indicators (KRIs) in business management from 1992 to 2023 through a comprehensive bibliometric analysis performed in RStudio using the Bibliometrix platform and in VOSviewer. Utilizing data from the Web of Science database, we identify trends, key themes, and influential research in this domain, observing an annual growth rate of 17.76%. Our analyses include the top 10 most globally cited documents, word clouds based on authors’ keywords and Keywords Plus, clustering by coupling, co-occurrence networks, and factorial analysis. Our findings reveal a significant increase in research interest post-2004, with sustainability and corporate social responsibility emerging as central themes. We confirm positive correlations between KPIs, improved organizational performance, and effective risk management via KRIs. This research underscores the importance of international collaboration and diverse thematic exploration in advancing the field.","PeriodicalId":21282,"journal":{"name":"Risks","volume":"47 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141946227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Family considerations are known to influence the decision to buy long-term care (LTC) insurance. This paper uses a Swiss survey to identify the characteristics of individuals willing to purchase LTC insurance, either to protect their children’s bequest or because they cannot rely on family for care. First, it shows that the presence or absence of children plays an important role in the two motivations for buying LTC insurance. Second, it shows that individuals from the French-speaking part of Switzerland and those with lower self-perceived health are more likely to buy LTC insurance because of the unreliability of family care. On the other hand, individuals with higher self-perceived health and those with a right and center political orientation are more likely to buy LTC insurance for reasons of bequest protection. The results provide insights into designing more targeted strategies to promote LTC insurance.
{"title":"On the Motivations for Purchasing Long-Term Care Insurance: Protecting Bequest and Unreliability of Family Care","authors":"Sylvain Botteron, Christophe Courbage, Joël Wagner","doi":"10.3390/risks12080124","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/risks12080124","url":null,"abstract":"Family considerations are known to influence the decision to buy long-term care (LTC) insurance. This paper uses a Swiss survey to identify the characteristics of individuals willing to purchase LTC insurance, either to protect their children’s bequest or because they cannot rely on family for care. First, it shows that the presence or absence of children plays an important role in the two motivations for buying LTC insurance. Second, it shows that individuals from the French-speaking part of Switzerland and those with lower self-perceived health are more likely to buy LTC insurance because of the unreliability of family care. On the other hand, individuals with higher self-perceived health and those with a right and center political orientation are more likely to buy LTC insurance for reasons of bequest protection. The results provide insights into designing more targeted strategies to promote LTC insurance.","PeriodicalId":21282,"journal":{"name":"Risks","volume":"138 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141946245","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study employs a robust quantitative ex post facto research design to investigate the complex relationship between audit fees and earnings management. The financial information of 164 firms admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) was used from 2010 to 2019 (pre-COVID period) to achieve the research goal. Analysing data from the Tehran Stock Exchange firms, the study uncovers an inverted U-shaped relationship between audit fees and earnings management. This suggests that moderate audit fees can lead to higher earnings management. Key contributions of this paper include highlighting the role of audit fees in influencing financial reporting quality and risk management, providing empirical evidence on the asymmetric effects of normal and abnormal audit fees on earnings management, and emphasising the need for balanced audit fee structures to ensure financial transparency and mitigate risk. The findings offer valuable insights for academics, practitioners, and policymakers in understanding the nuances of audit fees and their impact on corporate financial practices. This study advances the literature on financial risk management and corporate finance. It emphasises the importance of balanced audit fee structures for management teams, auditors, and policymakers to ensure transparent financial reporting practices.
本研究采用稳健的事后定量研究设计来探讨审计费用与收益管理之间的复杂关系。为实现研究目标，本研究使用了德黑兰证券交易所（TSE）164 家公司 2010 年至 2019 年（COVID 前）的财务信息。通过分析德黑兰证券交易所公司的数据，研究发现审计费用与收益管理之间存在倒 U 型关系。这表明，适度的审计费用会导致更高的收益管理。本文的主要贡献包括：强调了审计费用在影响财务报告质量和风险管理方面的作用；提供了正常和异常审计费用对收益管理非对称影响的经验证据；强调了平衡审计费用结构以确保财务透明度和降低风险的必要性。研究结果为学术界、从业人员和政策制定者了解审计费用的细微差别及其对企业财务实践的影响提供了宝贵的见解。本研究推动了有关财务风险管理和公司财务的文献的发展。它强调了平衡审计费用结构对管理团队、审计师和政策制定者的重要性，以确保透明的财务报告实践。
{"title":"Impact of Audit Fees on Earnings Management and Financial Risk: An Analysis of Corporate Finance Practices","authors":"Abbas Ali Daryaei, Davood Askarany, Yasin Fattahi","doi":"10.3390/risks12080123","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/risks12080123","url":null,"abstract":"This study employs a robust quantitative ex post facto research design to investigate the complex relationship between audit fees and earnings management. The financial information of 164 firms admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) was used from 2010 to 2019 (pre-COVID period) to achieve the research goal. Analysing data from the Tehran Stock Exchange firms, the study uncovers an inverted U-shaped relationship between audit fees and earnings management. This suggests that moderate audit fees can lead to higher earnings management. Key contributions of this paper include highlighting the role of audit fees in influencing financial reporting quality and risk management, providing empirical evidence on the asymmetric effects of normal and abnormal audit fees on earnings management, and emphasising the need for balanced audit fee structures to ensure financial transparency and mitigate risk. The findings offer valuable insights for academics, practitioners, and policymakers in understanding the nuances of audit fees and their impact on corporate financial practices. This study advances the literature on financial risk management and corporate finance. It emphasises the importance of balanced audit fee structures for management teams, auditors, and policymakers to ensure transparent financial reporting practices.","PeriodicalId":21282,"journal":{"name":"Risks","volume":"42 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141881367","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Working capital management is critical because it affects a company’s profitability, liquidity, and investment decisions, all of which have an impact on financial performance. As a result, effective and efficient working capital management is an essential component for commercial and service businesses. Given the importance of the commercial and services industries to the Kenyan economy, the goal of this research was to investigate the impact of working capital management on the financial performance of these firms, particularly those listed on the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE), from 2003 to 2022. Working capital management was measured using the average age of inventory, average collection period, average payment period, and cash conversion cycle, whereas financial performance was measured using return on asset, return on equity, and net operating profit margin. Using panel regression analysis, the results showed that the average inventory age, average collection period, average payment period, and cash conversion cycle were all negatively related to financial performance for NSE-listed commercial and service firms. Based on the findings, it is recommended that Kenyan commercial and service firms adopt prudent optimal working capital management practices to improve firm financial performance and maximize shareholder wealth.
{"title":"The Effects of Working Capital Management on the Financial Performance of Commercial and Service Firms Listed on the Nairobi Securities Exchange in Kenya","authors":"Richard Wamalwa Wanzala, Lawrence Obokoh","doi":"10.3390/risks12080119","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/risks12080119","url":null,"abstract":"Working capital management is critical because it affects a company’s profitability, liquidity, and investment decisions, all of which have an impact on financial performance. As a result, effective and efficient working capital management is an essential component for commercial and service businesses. Given the importance of the commercial and services industries to the Kenyan economy, the goal of this research was to investigate the impact of working capital management on the financial performance of these firms, particularly those listed on the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE), from 2003 to 2022. Working capital management was measured using the average age of inventory, average collection period, average payment period, and cash conversion cycle, whereas financial performance was measured using return on asset, return on equity, and net operating profit margin. Using panel regression analysis, the results showed that the average inventory age, average collection period, average payment period, and cash conversion cycle were all negatively related to financial performance for NSE-listed commercial and service firms. Based on the findings, it is recommended that Kenyan commercial and service firms adopt prudent optimal working capital management practices to improve firm financial performance and maximize shareholder wealth.","PeriodicalId":21282,"journal":{"name":"Risks","volume":"65 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141865584","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abrorjon S. Kucharov, Anastasia A. Sozinova, Elena G. Popkova, Natalia M. Fomenko, Galina V. Vorontsova, Victoria N. Ostrovskaya
This paper is devoted to establishing the consequences of integrating CSR into the marketing mix for financial risks in modern companies. Based on the international statistics for 2023, we compiled a regression model of the dependence of financial risks on the integration of CSR into their marketing mix. Based on that, we developed a new system approach to managing companies’ sustainable development. Its features are marketing management of the sustainable development of companies, systemic management of social and financial risks to companies, and implementation of risk management through integrating CSR into the marketing mix. The main conclusion is that the sustainable development of companies in the Decade of Action requires a systemic integration of CSR into the marketing mix, for this will allow for the simultaneous reduction of social and financial risks. The theoretical significance of this conclusion consists in the disclosure of previously unknown cause-and-effect relationships between CSR and financial risks to companies, which are explained in this paper through the lens of the elements of the marketing mix in the 7P model. The originality of this research consists in developing novel marketing tools for the systemic management of social and financial risks for companies with the help of CSR. The practical significance relates to the fact that the offered recommendations on the more complete integration of CSR into their marketing mix will allow reducing financial risks and ensuring sustainable development of Russian companies in the Decade of Action (until 2030). The managerial significance is as follows: the developed system approach to managing companies’ sustainable development will improve the practice of risk management in companies due to previously unavailable joint management and the general reduction of social and financial risks.
{"title":"Integration of CSR into the Marketing Mix for the Sustainable Development of Companies: A View from the Position of Financial Risk Management","authors":"Abrorjon S. Kucharov, Anastasia A. Sozinova, Elena G. Popkova, Natalia M. Fomenko, Galina V. Vorontsova, Victoria N. Ostrovskaya","doi":"10.3390/risks12080121","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/risks12080121","url":null,"abstract":"This paper is devoted to establishing the consequences of integrating CSR into the marketing mix for financial risks in modern companies. Based on the international statistics for 2023, we compiled a regression model of the dependence of financial risks on the integration of CSR into their marketing mix. Based on that, we developed a new system approach to managing companies’ sustainable development. Its features are marketing management of the sustainable development of companies, systemic management of social and financial risks to companies, and implementation of risk management through integrating CSR into the marketing mix. The main conclusion is that the sustainable development of companies in the Decade of Action requires a systemic integration of CSR into the marketing mix, for this will allow for the simultaneous reduction of social and financial risks. The theoretical significance of this conclusion consists in the disclosure of previously unknown cause-and-effect relationships between CSR and financial risks to companies, which are explained in this paper through the lens of the elements of the marketing mix in the 7P model. The originality of this research consists in developing novel marketing tools for the systemic management of social and financial risks for companies with the help of CSR. The practical significance relates to the fact that the offered recommendations on the more complete integration of CSR into their marketing mix will allow reducing financial risks and ensuring sustainable development of Russian companies in the Decade of Action (until 2030). The managerial significance is as follows: the developed system approach to managing companies’ sustainable development will improve the practice of risk management in companies due to previously unavailable joint management and the general reduction of social and financial risks.","PeriodicalId":21282,"journal":{"name":"Risks","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141865586","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study aims to investigate the impact of financial stress and uncertainty on the returns of green and conventional bonds and stocks in the United States from 2010 to 2022. The research utilizes nonlinear and nonparametric analysis, which includes the quantile-on-quantile and nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approaches to examine the relationship between variables. The data analyzed using R programming language show that financial stress positively impacts the middle quantiles of both conventional and green equity, while financial uncertainty negatively impacts upper quantiles. The study also finds that financial stress has a more significant impact on all types of bonds compared to financial uncertainty, with conventional bonds being more affected. This study proposes a pyramid that classifies financial assets based on their susceptibility to financial stress, which could help investors evaluate risk levels and make better investment decisions. The study recommends that policymakers should encourage green investments by offering incentives, such as tax credits. They should also focus on enhancing the efficiency of volatile assets by implementing new investment rules and regulations.
本研究旨在探讨 2010 年至 2022 年金融压力和不确定性对美国绿色债券和传统债券及股票收益的影响。研究采用了非线性和非参数分析方法，包括量化对量化和量化中的非参数因果关系方法来研究变量之间的关系。使用 R 编程语言分析的数据显示，金融压力对传统股票和绿色股票的中间量值有积极影响，而金融不确定性对上量值有消极影响。研究还发现，与金融不确定性相比，金融压力对各类债券的影响更为显著，而传统债券受到的影响更大。本研究提出了一个金字塔，根据金融资产对金融压力的易感性对其进行分类，这可以帮助投资者评估风险水平，做出更好的投资决策。研究建议，政策制定者应通过提供税收减免等激励措施来鼓励绿色投资。他们还应该通过实施新的投资规则和法规，重点提高不稳定资产的效率。
{"title":"The Impact of Financial Stress and Uncertainty on Green and Conventional Bonds and Stocks: A Nonlinear and Nonparametric Quantile Analysis","authors":"Muhammad Mar’I, Mehdi Seraj, Turgut Tursoy","doi":"10.3390/risks12080120","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/risks12080120","url":null,"abstract":"This study aims to investigate the impact of financial stress and uncertainty on the returns of green and conventional bonds and stocks in the United States from 2010 to 2022. The research utilizes nonlinear and nonparametric analysis, which includes the quantile-on-quantile and nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approaches to examine the relationship between variables. The data analyzed using R programming language show that financial stress positively impacts the middle quantiles of both conventional and green equity, while financial uncertainty negatively impacts upper quantiles. The study also finds that financial stress has a more significant impact on all types of bonds compared to financial uncertainty, with conventional bonds being more affected. This study proposes a pyramid that classifies financial assets based on their susceptibility to financial stress, which could help investors evaluate risk levels and make better investment decisions. The study recommends that policymakers should encourage green investments by offering incentives, such as tax credits. They should also focus on enhancing the efficiency of volatile assets by implementing new investment rules and regulations.","PeriodicalId":21282,"journal":{"name":"Risks","volume":"202 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141865585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Raya H. Karlibaeva, Dmitry A. Lipinsky, Vera A. Volokhina, Elena A. Gureeva, Ivan N. Makarov
The goal of this paper was to study the role of corporate social responsibility (by the example of responsible HRM) in the sustainable development of entrepreneurship through operational risk management. The correlation analysis method was used to find a close connection between the number of employees and operational risks to international companies from “Global 500” in 2021–2023. The regression analysis method was used to compile the economic and mathematical model of the sustainable development of international entrepreneurship, which demonstrated wide opportunities for operational risk management through responsible HRM. The method of trend analysis allowed determining scenarios of the sustainable development of international entrepreneurship, which demonstrated that in the Decade of Action, the success of operational risk management is largely determined by the activity of the use of responsible HRM practices. The main conclusion is that responsible HRM facilitates the reduction of operational risks to modern companies, but practices of responsible HRM have different impacts on operational risks to companies: some practices (creation of knowledge-intensive jobs and stimulation of the innovative activity of employees through support for research talents) reduce operational risks, while some practices (stimulation of the growth of labor efficiency and attraction of female researchers to the staff) have a contradictory impact, and other practices (development of human capital through corporate training) increase operational risks. The theoretical significance is because the paper discloses the previously unknown consequences of responsible HRM as a special sphere of manifestation of corporate social responsibility for the operational risks of companies. The practical significance is because the compiled scenarios disclose the perspective of the sustainable development of companies through the improvement of the management of their operational risks based on responsible HRM. The managerial significance is that the proposed recommendations from the authors for the practical implementation of the optimistic scenario can be milestones for companies and can be used to improve the practice of operational risk management of companies.
{"title":"Sustainable Development of Entrepreneurship through Operational Risk Management: The Role of Corporate Social Responsibility","authors":"Raya H. Karlibaeva, Dmitry A. Lipinsky, Vera A. Volokhina, Elena A. Gureeva, Ivan N. Makarov","doi":"10.3390/risks12080118","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/risks12080118","url":null,"abstract":"The goal of this paper was to study the role of corporate social responsibility (by the example of responsible HRM) in the sustainable development of entrepreneurship through operational risk management. The correlation analysis method was used to find a close connection between the number of employees and operational risks to international companies from “Global 500” in 2021–2023. The regression analysis method was used to compile the economic and mathematical model of the sustainable development of international entrepreneurship, which demonstrated wide opportunities for operational risk management through responsible HRM. The method of trend analysis allowed determining scenarios of the sustainable development of international entrepreneurship, which demonstrated that in the Decade of Action, the success of operational risk management is largely determined by the activity of the use of responsible HRM practices. The main conclusion is that responsible HRM facilitates the reduction of operational risks to modern companies, but practices of responsible HRM have different impacts on operational risks to companies: some practices (creation of knowledge-intensive jobs and stimulation of the innovative activity of employees through support for research talents) reduce operational risks, while some practices (stimulation of the growth of labor efficiency and attraction of female researchers to the staff) have a contradictory impact, and other practices (development of human capital through corporate training) increase operational risks. The theoretical significance is because the paper discloses the previously unknown consequences of responsible HRM as a special sphere of manifestation of corporate social responsibility for the operational risks of companies. The practical significance is because the compiled scenarios disclose the perspective of the sustainable development of companies through the improvement of the management of their operational risks based on responsible HRM. The managerial significance is that the proposed recommendations from the authors for the practical implementation of the optimistic scenario can be milestones for companies and can be used to improve the practice of operational risk management of companies.","PeriodicalId":21282,"journal":{"name":"Risks","volume":"45 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141865587","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Shaokang Wang, Han Lin Shang, Leonie Tickle, Han Li
We introduce the function principal component regression (FPCR) forecasting method to model and forecast age-specific survival functions observed over time. The age distribution of survival functions is an example of constrained data whose values lie within a unit interval. Because of the constraint, such data do not reside in a linear vector space. A natural way to deal with such a constraint is through an invertible logit transformation that maps constrained onto unconstrained data in a linear space. With a time series of unconstrained data, we apply a functional time-series forecasting method to produce point and interval forecasts. The forecasts are then converted back to the original scale via the inverse logit transformation. Using the age- and sex-specific survival functions for Australia, we investigate the point and interval forecast accuracies for various horizons. We conclude that the functional principal component regression (FPCR) provides better forecast accuracy than the Lee–Carter (LC) method. Therefore, we apply FPCR to calculate annuity pricing and compare it with the market annuity price.
{"title":"Forecasting Age- and Sex-Specific Survival Functions: Application to Annuity Pricing","authors":"Shaokang Wang, Han Lin Shang, Leonie Tickle, Han Li","doi":"10.3390/risks12070117","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/risks12070117","url":null,"abstract":"We introduce the function principal component regression (FPCR) forecasting method to model and forecast age-specific survival functions observed over time. The age distribution of survival functions is an example of constrained data whose values lie within a unit interval. Because of the constraint, such data do not reside in a linear vector space. A natural way to deal with such a constraint is through an invertible logit transformation that maps constrained onto unconstrained data in a linear space. With a time series of unconstrained data, we apply a functional time-series forecasting method to produce point and interval forecasts. The forecasts are then converted back to the original scale via the inverse logit transformation. Using the age- and sex-specific survival functions for Australia, we investigate the point and interval forecast accuracies for various horizons. We conclude that the functional principal component regression (FPCR) provides better forecast accuracy than the Lee–Carter (LC) method. Therefore, we apply FPCR to calculate annuity pricing and compare it with the market annuity price.","PeriodicalId":21282,"journal":{"name":"Risks","volume":"67 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141780368","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Risk management in the project portfolio can contribute to more effective implementation of the goals of the projects, the portfolio, and the entire organization. However, in the literature on the subject, relatively little attention is paid to the determinants of this process. Moreover, the process course is rarely analyzed in a strategic context relating to the entire organization. For these reasons, this article’s primary goal is to identify the determinants of the effectiveness of risk management in the project portfolio. Research in this area was carried out in the FinTech industry, and the results were analyzed using structural equation modeling. The results indicated that the most important dimensions of the examined effectiveness are the strategic orientation of the organization and the risk management process in the project portfolio. At the level of strategic orientation, this highlights the need for coherence between the organization’s strategy and the project portfolio. At the level of risk management in the project portfolio, the primacy of ownership and control of individual risks is clearly visible.
{"title":"Determinants of the Effectiveness of Risk Management in the Project Portfolio in the FinTech Industry","authors":"Oliwia Khalil-Oliwa, Izabela Jonek-Kowalska","doi":"10.3390/risks12070111","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/risks12070111","url":null,"abstract":"Risk management in the project portfolio can contribute to more effective implementation of the goals of the projects, the portfolio, and the entire organization. However, in the literature on the subject, relatively little attention is paid to the determinants of this process. Moreover, the process course is rarely analyzed in a strategic context relating to the entire organization. For these reasons, this article’s primary goal is to identify the determinants of the effectiveness of risk management in the project portfolio. Research in this area was carried out in the FinTech industry, and the results were analyzed using structural equation modeling. The results indicated that the most important dimensions of the examined effectiveness are the strategic orientation of the organization and the risk management process in the project portfolio. At the level of strategic orientation, this highlights the need for coherence between the organization’s strategy and the project portfolio. At the level of risk management in the project portfolio, the primacy of ownership and control of individual risks is clearly visible.","PeriodicalId":21282,"journal":{"name":"Risks","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141552234","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Titi Purwandari, Yuyun Hidayat, Sukono, Kalfin, Riza Andrian Ibrahim, Subiyanto
The frequency and economic damage of natural disasters have increased globally over the last two decades due to climate change. This increase has an impact on the disaster insurance field, particularly in the calculation of premiums. Many regions have a shortcoming in employing insurance because the premium is too high compared with their budget allocation. As one of the solutions, the premium calculation can be developed by applying the cross-subsidies mechanism based on economic growth. Therefore, this research aims to develop premium models of natural disaster insurance that uniquely involve two new variables of an insured region: cross-subsidies and the economic growth rate. Another novelty is the development of the Black–Scholes model, considering the two new variables, and it is used to formulate the premium model. Following the modeling process, this study uses the model to estimate the premiums for natural disaster insurance in each province of Indonesia. The estimation results show that all new variables involved in the model novelties significantly affect the premiums. This research can be used by insurance companies to determine the premium of natural disaster insurance, which involves cross-subsidies and economic growth.
{"title":"Development of the Black–Scholes Model for Determining Insurance Premiums to Mitigate the Risk of Disaster Losses Using the Principles of Mutual Cooperation and Regional Economic Growth","authors":"Titi Purwandari, Yuyun Hidayat, Sukono, Kalfin, Riza Andrian Ibrahim, Subiyanto","doi":"10.3390/risks12070110","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/risks12070110","url":null,"abstract":"The frequency and economic damage of natural disasters have increased globally over the last two decades due to climate change. This increase has an impact on the disaster insurance field, particularly in the calculation of premiums. Many regions have a shortcoming in employing insurance because the premium is too high compared with their budget allocation. As one of the solutions, the premium calculation can be developed by applying the cross-subsidies mechanism based on economic growth. Therefore, this research aims to develop premium models of natural disaster insurance that uniquely involve two new variables of an insured region: cross-subsidies and the economic growth rate. Another novelty is the development of the Black–Scholes model, considering the two new variables, and it is used to formulate the premium model. Following the modeling process, this study uses the model to estimate the premiums for natural disaster insurance in each province of Indonesia. The estimation results show that all new variables involved in the model novelties significantly affect the premiums. This research can be used by insurance companies to determine the premium of natural disaster insurance, which involves cross-subsidies and economic growth.","PeriodicalId":21282,"journal":{"name":"Risks","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141525418","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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