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Industrial Clusters in the Long Run: Evidence from Million-Rouble Plants in China 长期的产业集群:来自中国百万卢布工厂的证据
Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3422265
Stephan Heblich, M. Seror, Hao Xu, Yanos Zylberberg
This paper exploits a short-lived cooperation program between the U.S.S.R. and China, which led to the construction of 156 “Million-Rouble plants” in the 1950s. We isolate exogenous variation in location decisions due to the relative position of allied and enemy airbases and study the long-run impact of these factories on local economic activity. While the “156” program accelerated industrialization in treated counties until the end of the command-economy era, this significant productivity advantage fully eroded in the subsequent period. We explore the nature of local spillovers responsible for this pattern, and provide evidence that treated counties are overspecialized and far less innovative. There is a large concentration of establishments along the production chain of the Million-Rouble plants, which limits technological spillovers across industries.
本文利用了苏联和中国之间一个短暂的合作计划,该计划导致在20世纪50年代建造了1.56座“百万卢布工厂”。我们孤立了由于盟军和敌人空军基地的相对位置而导致的选址决策的外生变化,并研究了这些工厂对当地经济活动的长期影响。虽然“156”计划在计划经济时代结束前加速了受改革国家的工业化进程,但这种显著的生产率优势在随后的时期完全消失了。我们探讨了造成这种模式的地方溢出效应的本质,并提供了证据,证明接受治疗的国家过于专业化,创新能力远远不足。百万卢布工厂的生产链上有大量集中的设施,这限制了跨行业的技术溢出。
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引用次数: 6
Do Property Rehabs Affect Neighboring Property Prices? 物业复建会影响邻近物业价格吗?
Pub Date : 2021-10-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3794796
Rohan Ganduri, G. Maturana
We examine the effect of distressed property rehabilitations on neighboring property prices using a recently developed nonparametric method that accounts for very local confounding house price trends. We find that house prices around a rehabilitated property increase between 2.3 and 4.0 percentage points following the rehabilitation. Moreover, we estimate that the average rehabilitation generates an aggregate welfare benefit that is 3.8 times greater than the amount invested. Rehabilitation externalities are stronger for longer rehabilitations and greater rehabilitation investments, and they are prevalent even in areas with high rates of foreclosures. The spillover effect of rehabilitations operates through their salience as opposed to through a reduction in the supply of distressed properties, through property appraisals, or through homebuyers with higher income moving into the neighborhood. Overall, our results suggest that investing in property rehabilitations can be a useful tool to stabilize distressed housing markets.
我们使用最近开发的一种非参数方法来检查不良财产恢复对邻近财产价格的影响,该方法考虑了非常局部的混淆房价趋势。我们发现,修复后的房产周围的房价在修复后上涨了2.3到4.0个百分点。此外,我们估计,平均康复产生的总福利收益是投资金额的3.8倍。修复的外部性对修复时间越长、修复投资越大越强,甚至在丧失抵押品赎回权率高的地区也很普遍。修复的溢出效应通过它们的显著性而起作用,而不是通过减少不良房产的供应,通过房产评估,或者通过高收入的购房者搬进附近。总体而言,我们的研究结果表明,投资于房地产修复可以成为稳定陷入困境的住房市场的有用工具。
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引用次数: 0
The Time-of-Day Travel Demand Elasticity Paradox 一天中的时间旅行需求弹性悖论
Pub Date : 2021-10-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3872886
Cody Nehiba
Driving demand and congestion are known to peak throughout the day, but temporal heterogeneity in travel demand elasticities is often overlooked. I estimate how the fuel economy elasticity of travel demand — a measure of the rebound effect from fuel economy standards — varies across peak and off-peak periods. The results present a paradox. Drivers are most elastic during peak demand periods. Mode switching for shorter commute trips appears to drive the heterogeneity, and the pollution benefits of fuel economy standards are shown to be more than offset by exacerbated congestion costs due to the timing of the rebound effect.
众所周知,驾驶需求和拥堵在一天中达到峰值,但旅行需求弹性的时间异质性往往被忽视。我估计出行需求的燃油经济性弹性(衡量燃油经济性标准的反弹效应)在高峰和非高峰期间是如何变化的。结果呈现出一个悖论。司机在需求高峰期最有弹性。较短通勤路程的模式转换似乎推动了异质性,并且由于反弹效应的时间,燃油经济性标准的污染效益被加剧的拥堵成本所抵消。
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引用次数: 0
Is COVID Revealing a Virus in CMBS 2.0? 在CMBS 2.0中,COVID是否暴露了病毒?
Pub Date : 2021-09-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3671162
J. Griffin, A. Priest
Commercial loan valuations crucially depend on accurate loan income, but underwritten income on commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) loans is commonly overstated relative to actual property income. Consistent with these differences being originator-specific, income overstatement in CMBS 2.0 deals varies widely and persistently across originators, is priced by originators, is related across property types within an originator, is predictable ex ante, and is accompanied by inflation of past financials. Risk retention and associated regulation had no discernible effect on income overstatement. Originator income overstatement is highly predictive of pre- and COVID-period loan distress. Overall, recent market stresses reveal large systemic differences in underwriting standards across originators. © 2023 The Authors. The Journal of Finance published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Finance Association.
商业贷款估值关键取决于准确的贷款收入,但商业抵押贷款支持证券(CMBS)贷款的承销收入相对于实际财产收入通常被高估。与这些特定于发起人的差异相一致的是,CMBS 2.0交易中的收入夸大在发起人之间存在广泛而持久的差异,由发起人定价,在发起人内部与不同的房地产类型相关,是预先可预测的,并且伴随着过去财务状况的通货膨胀。风险保留和相关监管对收入夸大没有明显影响。发起人收入夸大可以高度预测疫情前和疫情期间的贷款困境。总体而言,最近的市场压力揭示了不同发起人在承销标准上的巨大系统性差异。©2023作者。由Wiley期刊有限责任公司代表美国金融协会出版的《金融杂志》。
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引用次数: 1
NYC Post Primary Policy Analysis 纽约初选后政策分析
Pub Date : 2021-09-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3921463
Jennifer Khosid, Dashiell Advincula, Aditya Vishahan, Anirudh Hebbatam, Elif Necla Akoğlu, Ferhat Yaşar Ergin, Meena Shikes, Saanvi Bhatia, Sudip Kumar Paul, Arun Mahanand
New York City is home to millions of people of all races, classes, and creeds. The city’s mayor has the potential to impact more individuals than presidents of some small countries. After centrist candidate Eric Adams won the Democratic primary in June, we aim to explore voter preferences between him and the Republican nominee for this election cycle, Curtis Sliwa. We also aim to analyze their positions on two pertinent issues (as determined by voters surveyed in this study): crime and education. Our primary research method will be distributing a survey amongst New York City residents of voting age (18+) as well as breaking down and comparing the candidates’ crime and education policies to previous NYC policies to determine their potential socioeconomic impact.
纽约市是数百万不同种族、阶级和信仰的人的家园。这个城市的市长有可能比一些小国家的总统影响更多的人。中间派候选人埃里克·亚当斯(Eric Adams)在6月赢得民主党初选后,我们的目标是探索选民在他和共和党候选人柯蒂斯·斯利瓦(Curtis Sliwa)之间的偏好。我们还旨在分析他们在两个相关问题上的立场(由本研究中接受调查的选民决定):犯罪和教育。我们的主要研究方法是在达到投票年龄(18岁以上)的纽约市居民中进行调查,并将候选人的犯罪和教育政策与之前的纽约市政策进行分解和比较,以确定其潜在的社会经济影响。
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引用次数: 0
Economic Assessment of Sources of Investment in the Development of Municipal Electric Transport Enterprises 城市电力运输企业发展投资来源经济评价
Pub Date : 2021-08-31 DOI: 10.15587/1729-4061.2021.239167
O. Illiashenko, N. Kondratenko
The organizational and economic foundations for the formation of an investment strategy for the development of urban electric transport enterprises have been developed. The economic content of the main stages of the investment process at these enterprises has been clarified. A list of basic principles for the effective formation of the investment process has been compiled. It is proved that the enterprises of urban electric transport in Ukraine are currently unprofitable and the problems of investment support for them are extremely relevant and important.The main directions of the development of investment activity of urban electric transport enterprises have been investigated and strategic, tactical and operational methods of its activation have been proposed. At the same time, there are three main aspects of enhancing investment activity: investment, innovation and technological.The main provisions of the strategy of attracting investment sources by urban electric transport enterprises have been developed, which allows ensuring the required level of investment flexibility of the enterprise and independence in obtaining investment resources from various sources. The main stages of this process have been identified and substantiated, which include: the time of action, the formation of strategic goals, the algorithm for selecting and justifying the sources of investment resources and the practical implementation of the investment strategy. The practical aspects of rating sources of investment resources have been investigated, taking into account risk factors, time of use, investment prices, the ability of an enterprise and the state to influence the formation and use of investment sources. An integral indicator has been determined for each of the possible sources of investment resources, according to which the most acceptable for urban electric transport enterprises in terms of the cost of attracting and the likelihood of risk occurrence are own funds (32 points), as well as state budget funds (22 points) and local budgets (21 points). Practical recommendations on the use of the developed provisions have been formed
形成城市电力交通企业发展投资战略的组织和经济基础已经形成。阐明了这些企业投资过程各主要阶段的经济内容。已编制了一份有效形成投资过程的基本原则清单。事实证明,乌克兰城市电力交通企业目前处于无利可图的状态,其投资支持问题极其相关和重要。研究了城市电力交通企业投资活动发展的主要方向,提出了城市电力交通企业投资活动的战略、战术和操作方法。同时,加强投资活动主要有三个方面:投资、创新和技术。制定了城市电力交通企业招商引资战略的主要条款,保证了企业所需的投资灵活性和从各种渠道获得投资资源的独立性。这一过程的主要阶段已经确定并得到证实,其中包括:行动的时间,战略目标的形成,选择和证明投资资源来源的算法以及投资战略的实际实施。考虑到风险因素、使用时间、投资价格、企业和国家影响投资来源形成和使用的能力,对投资资源来源评级的实际方面进行了研究。对每一种可能的投资资源来源确定了一个综合指标,根据该指标,城市电力交通企业在吸引成本和风险发生可能性方面最可接受的是自有资金(32分),以及国家预算资金(22分)和地方预算(21分)。已经就如何使用拟定的规定提出了实际的建议
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引用次数: 0
Teen Driving Restrictions and School Closures in Times of COVID-19 2019冠状病毒病期间青少年驾驶限制和学校关闭
Pub Date : 2021-08-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3911034
Jaesang Sung, Qihua Qiu
With the fourth COVID-19 wave on the rise as the Delta variant rages and schools reopening across the United States since August 2021, debates over re-closing schools have arisen. School closures were the first and fastest adopted among social distancing measures to prevent coronavirus transmission in spring 2020. Meanwhile, the Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) program imposes driving restrictions on teenagers, such as limiting the number of youth passengers allowed in a car and/or prohibiting nighttime driving. We expect GDL to have some social distancing effects that may help reduce coronavirus transmission among teenagers when off campus, which could benefit their entire households and therefore population of other ages. Using a difference-in-difference method, we examine how GDL restrictions affect county-level COVID-19 cases and deaths, taking advantage of the timing of statewide school closures. We find reducing one passenger in the car decreases COVID-19 cumulative cases per 100,000 by 5.8%-6.6%. An event study shows that, three weeks after school closures, reducing one passenger in the car lowers cumulative cases per 100,000 by nearly 15.7%. This paper adds to the COVID-19 literature by introducing a plausibly exogenous “quasi-social-distancing-policy”, GDL, and highlighting that the efficacy of school closures may vary by local circumstances.
随着“德尔塔”病毒的扩散和从2021年8月开始美国各地的学校重新开学,第四次新冠肺炎疫情正在加剧,有关重新停课的争论不断升温。在2020年春季预防冠状病毒传播的社交距离措施中,关闭学校是第一个也是最快采取的措施。与此同时,毕业驾驶执照(GDL)计划对青少年进行驾驶限制,例如限制一辆车允许的青少年乘客数量和/或禁止夜间驾驶。我们预计GDL会产生一些社会距离效应,可能有助于减少青少年在校外的冠状病毒传播,这可能会使他们的整个家庭以及其他年龄段的人口受益。利用全州学校关闭的时机,我们使用差分法研究了GDL限制如何影响县级COVID-19病例和死亡。我们发现,每10万人中减少一名乘客,COVID-19累计病例将减少5.8%至6.6%。一项事件研究表明,在学校关闭三周后,减少一名乘客,每10万人的累计病例减少了近15.7%。本文引入了一种看似外生的“准社会距离政策”GDL,为COVID-19文献增添了新的内容,并强调了学校关闭的效果可能因当地情况而异。
{"title":"Teen Driving Restrictions and School Closures in Times of COVID-19","authors":"Jaesang Sung, Qihua Qiu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3911034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3911034","url":null,"abstract":"With the fourth COVID-19 wave on the rise as the Delta variant rages and schools reopening across the United States since August 2021, debates over re-closing schools have arisen. School closures were the first and fastest adopted among social distancing measures to prevent coronavirus transmission in spring 2020. Meanwhile, the Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) program imposes driving restrictions on teenagers, such as limiting the number of youth passengers allowed in a car and/or prohibiting nighttime driving. We expect GDL to have some social distancing effects that may help reduce coronavirus transmission among teenagers when off campus, which could benefit their entire households and therefore population of other ages. Using a difference-in-difference method, we examine how GDL restrictions affect county-level COVID-19 cases and deaths, taking advantage of the timing of statewide school closures. We find reducing one passenger in the car decreases COVID-19 cumulative cases per 100,000 by 5.8%-6.6%. An event study shows that, three weeks after school closures, reducing one passenger in the car lowers cumulative cases per 100,000 by nearly 15.7%. This paper adds to the COVID-19 literature by introducing a plausibly exogenous “quasi-social-distancing-policy”, GDL, and highlighting that the efficacy of school closures may vary by local circumstances.","PeriodicalId":221051,"journal":{"name":"Urban Economics & Regional Studies eJournal","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126920212","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Urban Vibrancy, Human Capital, and Firm Valuation in China 中国城市活力、人力资本与企业估值
Pub Date : 2021-08-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3908731
Danling Jiang, Shuying Liu, Feiyuan Li, Hongquan Zhu
This paper provides the first systematic analysis of persistent urban vibrancy in human capital supply in explaining firm valuation dispersion in China. We find persistent, significant city-to-city differences in Tobin’s q, especially among large or mature firms. To explain such geographic differences, we identify and show that several factors of the endowed city competitive advantages in supplying human capital play significant roles in explaining the geographic firm valuation premia. Our evidence suggests that city initial human capital advantages create long-lasting, and growing, shareholder wealth by producing and retaining talents in local firms.
本文首次系统分析了城市持续活力对人力资本供给的影响,以解释中国企业估值的分散。我们发现托宾q在不同城市之间存在持续的显著差异,尤其是在大型或成熟公司之间。为了解释这种地理差异,我们发现并证明了赋予城市人力资本竞争优势的几个因素在解释企业的地理估值溢价中发挥了重要作用。我们的证据表明,城市初始人力资本优势通过培养和留住当地企业的人才,创造了持久的、不断增长的股东财富。
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引用次数: 4
Changes in the Regional Structure of China's Domestic Market and Implications 中国国内市场区域结构的变化及其启示
Pub Date : 2021-08-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3916561
Jihyun Jung, Won-shik Choi, Hongwon Kim, Joohye Kim
In response to intensifying conflict with the United States and the shock of Covid-19, China reinforced its strategy to expand domestic demand. China's domestic market is an important factor affecting Korea's exports and economic growth. Accordingly, a large body of research has been conducted in Korea on China's expansion policy and changes in its domestic market. However, most studies have analyzed changes in China's consumer market, import market and imported items, limiting the overall understanding of China's domestic economy. In addition, most studies on China's regional domestic market have analyzed the market segmented by region. Recognizing this gap, this study expanded the scope of analysis of the domestic market in China to the entire domestic final demand, and analyzed inter-regional trade relations and other economic relations based on an inter-regional input-output analysis, which has rarely been attempted in analyses of the Chinese domestic market. In addition, the changes in the regional structure of the Chinese import market and Korea's competitiveness were analyzed using Chinese trade statistics. In particular, by synthesizing the changes after the global financial crisis, a turning point in China's economic structure, we project future changes in the regional economic structure of China, which emphasizes the independence of its domestic economy. In addition, in the era of US-China conflict, the study aimed to select regional markets meaningful to Korea, and to present strategic directions toward China focusing on regional cooperation and approaches into the domestic market.
为应对中美矛盾加剧和新冠肺炎疫情冲击,中国强化了扩大内需战略。中国国内市场是影响韩国出口和经济增长的重要因素。因此,国内对中国的扩张政策和国内市场的变化进行了大量的研究。然而,大多数研究分析了中国消费市场、进口市场和进口商品的变化,限制了对中国国内经济的整体了解。此外,大多数关于中国区域国内市场的研究都是对按区域细分的市场进行分析。认识到这一差距,本研究将中国国内市场的分析范围扩大到整个国内最终需求,并基于区域间投入产出分析来分析区域间贸易关系和其他经济关系,这在中国国内市场的分析中很少尝试。此外,利用中国贸易统计数据分析了中国进口市场的区域结构变化和韩国的竞争力。特别是,通过综合全球金融危机后中国经济结构的变化,我们预测了中国区域经济结构的未来变化,强调其国内经济的独立性。此外,在美中冲突的时代,本研究旨在选择对韩国有意义的区域市场,并提出以区域合作为重点的对华战略方向和进入国内市场的途径。
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引用次数: 0
Behavioural Land Use Policy Studies: Past, Present, and Future 行为土地使用政策研究:过去、现在和未来
Pub Date : 2021-08-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3918770
Helen X. H. Bao, G. Robinson
In this article we firstly provide a brief review of the current state of behavioural studies in land use policy, followed by a discussion of behavioural biases that are most relevant to land use policymaking. Next, we summarise the seven papers included in this themed issue of Land Use Policy. The behavioural topics explored by these papers include endowment effect, nudge, trust, social norm, time preference, and loss aversion. Our review of the literature shows that Land Use Policy has been leading the applications of behavioural insights in environmental studies in general and land use policy studies in particular. The papers included in this themed issue push this research frontier by using large survey datasets from the field, and by investigating some under-researched behavioural tools (e.g., nudge). We conclude by suggesting research gaps to be filled by future behavioural land use policy studies.
在本文中,我们首先简要回顾了土地利用政策行为研究的现状,然后讨论了与土地利用政策制定最相关的行为偏差。接下来,我们将对本期《土地使用政策》的七篇论文进行总结。研究的行为主题包括禀赋效应、助推、信任、社会规范、时间偏好和损失厌恶。我们对文献的回顾表明,土地使用政策一直引领着行为见解在环境研究中的应用,特别是在土地使用政策研究中。本主题刊中包含的论文通过使用来自该领域的大型调查数据集,并通过调查一些研究不足的行为工具(例如,轻推),推动了这一研究前沿。最后,我们建议未来的土地使用行为政策研究可以填补研究空白。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
Urban Economics & Regional Studies eJournal
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