I use residential burglary data from Bogota, Colombia, to fit an agent-based model following truncated L´evy flights (Pan et al., 2018) elucidating criminal rational behavior and validating repeat/near-repeat victimization and broken windows effects. The estimated parameters suggest that if an average house or its neighbors have never been attacked, and it is suddenly burglarized, the probability of a new attack the next day increases, due to the crime event, in 79 percentage points. Moreover, the following day its neighbors will also face an increment in the probability of crime of 79 percentage points. This effect persists for a long time span. The model presents an area under the Cumulative Accuracy Profile (CAP) curve, of 0.8 performing similarly or better than state-of-the-art crime prediction models. Public policies seeking to reduce criminal activity and its negative consequences must take into account these mechanisms and the self-exciting nature of crime to effectively make criminal hotspots safer.
我使用来自哥伦比亚波哥大的住宅入室盗窃数据来拟合一个基于主体的模型，该模型遵循截断的L ' evy航班(Pan et al.， 2018)，阐明了犯罪理性行为，并验证了重复/近乎重复的受害和破窗效应。估计的参数表明，如果一所普通的房子或它的邻居从未被袭击过，而突然被盗，那么由于犯罪事件，第二天再次袭击的可能性增加了79个百分点。此外，第二天，它的邻居也将面临犯罪概率增加79个百分点。这种影响会持续很长一段时间。该模型在累积准确度曲线(CAP)下呈现一个区域，0.8的表现与最先进的犯罪预测模型相似或更好。寻求减少犯罪活动及其消极后果的公共政策必须考虑到这些机制和犯罪的自我兴奋性，以有效地使犯罪热点更加安全。
{"title":"Predicting Criminal Behavior with Lévy Flights Using Real Data from Bogotá","authors":"M. Dulce","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3452735","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3452735","url":null,"abstract":"I use residential burglary data from Bogota, Colombia, to fit an agent-based model following truncated L´evy flights (Pan et al., 2018) elucidating criminal rational behavior and validating repeat/near-repeat victimization and broken windows effects. The estimated parameters suggest that if an average house or its neighbors have never been attacked, and it is suddenly burglarized, the probability of a new attack the next day increases, due to the crime event, in 79 percentage points. Moreover, the following day its neighbors will also face an increment in the probability of crime of 79 percentage points. This effect persists for a long time span. The model presents an area under the Cumulative Accuracy Profile (CAP) curve, of 0.8 performing similarly or better than state-of-the-art crime prediction models. Public policies seeking to reduce criminal activity and its negative consequences must take into account these mechanisms and the self-exciting nature of crime to effectively make criminal hotspots safer.","PeriodicalId":223837,"journal":{"name":"LSN: Criminal Law (Public Law - Crime) (Topic)","volume":"44 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115360554","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
When individuals violate the law, detection and verification of the violation are rarely, if ever, perfect. Before the state can dole out punishment, it must first identify a suspect and then produce sufficient evidence to persuade a judge and/or jury beyond some threshold level of confidence that the suspect, in fact, violated the law. The court might be uncertain that the state has the right person. If the suspect is undoubtedly the one who caused the harm, the court might be unsure about whether his act constitutes a violation of the law (e.g., whether the suspect was, in fact, speeding). The state, given the level of resources allocated to law enforcement, might not be able to produce a suspect. Limitations on enforcement resources lead to imperfect detection. Evidence production and proof problems cause both mistaken convictions and mistaken acquittals. Errors have many sources, including hindsight bias, lack of complete information about the defendant’s possible options and chosen action, untrustworthy eyewitness testimony, the admission of impartial evidence in trials, and unwillingness or inability to expend resources on detection, among others. We focus here not on the sources of errors, but rather on their effects on deterrence and punishment policy. Our purpose is to briefly summarize the theoretical literature that studies the effects of legal errors on crime and punishment rates, and to critically review studies that report on experiments conducted to test such theories. The theoretical literature includes analyses of both criminal law and civil law violations, and so we cover both here. Part 2 summarizes theories offered to explain and predict how imperfect detection and guilt-determination errors affect crime and punishment rates. Part 3 summaries, synthesizes and critiques experimental studies designed to test the theories. Part 4 catalogs, in broad terms, where we are and offers ideas for potentially fruitful avenues for continued exploration in the lab.
{"title":"Crime, Punishment, and Legal Error: A Review of the Experimental Literature","authors":"K. Zeiler, Erica Puccetti","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.3250393","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.3250393","url":null,"abstract":"When individuals violate the law, detection and verification of the violation are rarely, if ever, perfect. Before the state can dole out punishment, it must first identify a suspect and then produce sufficient evidence to persuade a judge and/or jury beyond some threshold level of confidence that the suspect, in fact, violated the law. The court might be uncertain that the state has the right person. If the suspect is undoubtedly the one who caused the harm, the court might be unsure about whether his act constitutes a violation of the law (e.g., whether the suspect was, in fact, speeding). The state, given the level of resources allocated to law enforcement, might not be able to produce a suspect. \u0000 \u0000Limitations on enforcement resources lead to imperfect detection. Evidence production and proof problems cause both mistaken convictions and mistaken acquittals. Errors have many sources, including hindsight bias, lack of complete information about the defendant’s possible options and chosen action, untrustworthy eyewitness testimony, the admission of impartial evidence in trials, and unwillingness or inability to expend resources on detection, among others. We focus here not on the sources of errors, but rather on their effects on deterrence and punishment policy. Our purpose is to briefly summarize the theoretical literature that studies the effects of legal errors on crime and punishment rates, and to critically review studies that report on experiments conducted to test such theories. The theoretical literature includes analyses of both criminal law and civil law violations, and so we cover both here. Part 2 summarizes theories offered to explain and predict how imperfect detection and guilt-determination errors affect crime and punishment rates. Part 3 summaries, synthesizes and critiques experimental studies designed to test the theories. Part 4 catalogs, in broad terms, where we are and offers ideas for potentially fruitful avenues for continued exploration in the lab.","PeriodicalId":223837,"journal":{"name":"LSN: Criminal Law (Public Law - Crime) (Topic)","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124116455","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Corporate policies also impact the lives and rights of the people with whom the corporation is interacting. Under such circumstances, it was only natural to pave way for corporate manslaughter laws in different countries to control the liability of corporations. Canada and UK have their roots in English common law and has the same genesis. From this research paper we can see that UK corporate manslaughter law has evolved better that their Canadian counterpart. Some of the doctrines of criminal liability such as the identification theory and organizational liability is common to both the UK and Canada.
{"title":"Corporate Manslaughter Comparison in UK and Canada","authors":"Chenoy Ceil","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3520428","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3520428","url":null,"abstract":"Corporate policies also impact the lives and rights of the people with whom the corporation is interacting. Under such circumstances, it was only natural to pave way for corporate manslaughter laws in different countries to control the liability of corporations. Canada and UK have their roots in English common law and has the same genesis. From this research paper we can see that UK corporate manslaughter law has evolved better that their Canadian counterpart. Some of the doctrines of criminal liability such as the identification theory and organizational liability is common to both the UK and Canada.","PeriodicalId":223837,"journal":{"name":"LSN: Criminal Law (Public Law - Crime) (Topic)","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127119195","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Like most of America, Colorado faces a homeless epidemic. Amidst a stark rise in housing costs and equally sharp drop in available affordable housing, Colorado’s cities struggle to address the overwhelming needs of its homeless residents. While professing a dedication to eliminating homelessness through homeless and poverty services, state actors continue to write, pass, and enforce local ordinances that criminalize life-sustaining behaviors. Laws that criminalize panhandling, begging, camping, sitting or lying in public, and vagrancy target and disproportionately impact residents that are homeless for activities they must perform in the course of daily living. This Report examines how laws criminalizing homeless people for being homeless have become widespread in Colorado. Through a comprehensive analysis of the enforcement of anti-homeless laws, this Report also examines the cost—economic and social—anti-homeless laws impose upon all Colorado citizens. In the process of examining trends across branches of government and across the state, we found similarities between the constitutional challenges to anti-homeless laws and other discriminatory legal frameworks that criminalized people for their identities or statuses. Ordinances punishing people without homes for behaviors necessary to their daily lived existence will soon become another chapter in a shameful history of invalidated laws, such as Anti-Okie Laws, Jim Crow Laws, “Ugly Laws,” and Sundown Laws. Federal courts have begun to recognize the dubious constitutionality of anti-homeless laws, and, in turn, municipalities like Denver and Boulder have begun re-examining how they enforce anti-homeless ordinances. But the data still reveal a trend: a startling high number of ordinances enforced at an alarming rate which comes with a high price tag for Colorado. To analyze statewide trends, we identified 76 cities in Colorado based on population and geographic diversity, which represent roughly 70% of the state’s population. We surveyed these 76 municipal codes and identified numerous anti-homeless ordinances that target those without homes, such as: sitting, sleeping, lying, or storing belongings in public prohibitions; restrictions on begging or panhandling; camping bans; loitering and vagrancy prohibitions; and trespass, park closure, and sanitation laws. Based on this research, we have come to following conclusions: • Colorado’s 76 largest cities have 351 anti-homeless ordinances; • Cities criminalize homelessness in a variety of ways; • Adopted ordinances inspire similar ordinances in other municipalities; and • Ordinances lack clarity and obstruct government transparency and accountability From the 76 surveyed cities, we selected 23 cities for more in-depth research using Open Records Requests to examine how anti-homeless ordinances are enforced. We found: • Cities issue citations to homeless residents at a staggering rate. For example, 30% of all citations that Grand Junction iss
{"title":"Too High a Price: What Criminalizing Homelessness Costs Colorado","authors":"Nantiya Ruan","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.3169929","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.3169929","url":null,"abstract":"Like most of America, Colorado faces a homeless epidemic. Amidst a stark rise in housing costs and equally sharp drop in available affordable housing, Colorado’s cities struggle to address the overwhelming needs of its homeless residents. While professing a dedication to eliminating homelessness through homeless and poverty services, state actors continue to write, pass, and enforce local ordinances that criminalize life-sustaining behaviors. Laws that criminalize panhandling, begging, camping, sitting or lying in public, and vagrancy target and disproportionately impact residents that are homeless for activities they must perform in the course of daily living. This Report examines how laws criminalizing homeless people for being homeless have become widespread in Colorado. Through a comprehensive analysis of the enforcement of anti-homeless laws, this Report also examines the cost—economic and social—anti-homeless laws impose upon all Colorado citizens. In the process of examining trends across branches of government and across the state, we found similarities between the constitutional challenges to anti-homeless laws and other discriminatory legal frameworks that criminalized people for their identities or statuses. Ordinances punishing people without homes for behaviors necessary to their daily lived existence will soon become another chapter in a shameful history of invalidated laws, such as Anti-Okie Laws, Jim Crow Laws, “Ugly Laws,” and Sundown Laws. Federal courts have begun to recognize the dubious constitutionality of anti-homeless laws, and, in turn, municipalities like Denver and Boulder have begun re-examining how they enforce anti-homeless ordinances. But the data still reveal a trend: a startling high number of ordinances enforced at an alarming rate which comes with a high price tag for Colorado. To analyze statewide trends, we identified 76 cities in Colorado based on population and geographic diversity, which represent roughly 70% of the state’s population. We surveyed these 76 municipal codes and identified numerous anti-homeless ordinances that target those without homes, such as: sitting, sleeping, lying, or storing belongings in public prohibitions; restrictions on begging or panhandling; camping bans; loitering and vagrancy prohibitions; and trespass, park closure, and sanitation laws. Based on this research, we have come to following conclusions: • Colorado’s 76 largest cities have 351 anti-homeless ordinances; • Cities criminalize homelessness in a variety of ways; • Adopted ordinances inspire similar ordinances in other municipalities; and • Ordinances lack clarity and obstruct government transparency and accountability From the 76 surveyed cities, we selected 23 cities for more in-depth research using Open Records Requests to examine how anti-homeless ordinances are enforced. We found: • Cities issue citations to homeless residents at a staggering rate. For example, 30% of all citations that Grand Junction iss","PeriodicalId":223837,"journal":{"name":"LSN: Criminal Law (Public Law - Crime) (Topic)","volume":"76 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-04-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132521486","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
According to the European Commission, Member States lose between 2% to 2.5% of their combined GDP annually to tax crimes. Tax avoidance and tax evasion have also dominated news recently especially following the Panama Papers/Mossack Fonseca Leak and the Paradise Papers. Whereas these leaks, particularly the Paradise Papers, encompassed arrangements that may have involved tax evasion, a lot of the arrangements involved legal tax avoidance, albeit highly aggressive. In response many governments are using the Automatic Exchange of Information and the Common Reporting Standard as a lever to encourage voluntary disclosure of non-reported offshore income among other tools to fight tax evasion. In the United Kingdom, the Criminal Finance Act 2017 received Royal Assent on 27 April 2017 and came into effect on 30 September 30, 2017. Among other objectives, it created a new corporate offence of failure to prevent the facilitation of tax evasion by an associated person, whether in the United Kingdom or in a foreign jurisdiction. It paves way for holding corporate entities liable where those “associated” with it have engaged in the criminal facilitation of tax evasion. The new corporate offence of failure to prevent the criminal facilitation of tax evasion was birthed out of the difficulties faced in the UK in holding corporate entities criminally responsible because of the “identification doctrine” that required prosecutors to prove that a “directing mind” within the organization. Therefore, this paper first explores the concept of the “identification doctrine”, criticisms levelled against it and why it was considered an impediment to making corporate entities liable for economic crimes that resulted the move towards a “strict liability” offence. It then focuses on the scope of the new corporate offence and examines the persons covered, the two elements i.e. the failure to prevent the facilitation of a United Kingdom tax evasion offence and the failure to prevent the facilitation of foreign tax evasion offences, the stages involved and the challenges posed by the requirement for dual criminality and the extra-territorial application of the later offence. Lawyers can and often play a role in the facilitation of tax evasion. In light of the findings of the European Parliament’s Committee of Inquiry into Money Laundering, Tax Avoidance and Tax Evasion (PANA), the Bari Declaration of May 13, 2017 and work undertaken by the OECD (for example the Ten Global Principles launched at the OECD´s Fifth Forum on Tax and Crime, the Common Reporting Standard (CRS) and the Mandatory Disclosure Rules for Addressing CRS Avoidance Agreements and Offshore Structures) this paper also looks at the spillover effects of the new UK corporate offence on tax advisers and lawyers in their capacity as “associated persons” vis-a-vis the defense of legal professional privilege. It concludes that the Criminal Finances Act 2017 is consistent with the doctrine of legal professional privileg
{"title":"UK Criminal Finances Act 2017: The Interplay between the New Corporate Offence for the Failure to Prevent the Criminal Facilitation of Tax Evasion and Legal Professional Privilege","authors":"Clement Migai","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.3158742","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.3158742","url":null,"abstract":"According to the European Commission, Member States lose between 2% to 2.5% of their combined GDP annually to tax crimes. Tax avoidance and tax evasion have also dominated news recently especially following the Panama Papers/Mossack Fonseca Leak and the Paradise Papers. Whereas these leaks, particularly the Paradise Papers, encompassed arrangements that may have involved tax evasion, a lot of the arrangements involved legal tax avoidance, albeit highly aggressive. In response many governments are using the Automatic Exchange of Information and the Common Reporting Standard as a lever to encourage voluntary disclosure of non-reported offshore income among other tools to fight tax evasion. In the United Kingdom, the Criminal Finance Act 2017 received Royal Assent on 27 April 2017 and came into effect on 30 September 30, 2017. Among other objectives, it created a new corporate offence of failure to prevent the facilitation of tax evasion by an associated person, whether in the United Kingdom or in a foreign jurisdiction. It paves way for holding corporate entities liable where those “associated” with it have engaged in the criminal facilitation of tax evasion. The new corporate offence of failure to prevent the criminal facilitation of tax evasion was birthed out of the difficulties faced in the UK in holding corporate entities criminally responsible because of the “identification doctrine” that required prosecutors to prove that a “directing mind” within the organization. Therefore, this paper first explores the concept of the “identification doctrine”, criticisms levelled against it and why it was considered an impediment to making corporate entities liable for economic crimes that resulted the move towards a “strict liability” offence. It then focuses on the scope of the new corporate offence and examines the persons covered, the two elements i.e. the failure to prevent the facilitation of a United Kingdom tax evasion offence and the failure to prevent the facilitation of foreign tax evasion offences, the stages involved and the challenges posed by the requirement for dual criminality and the extra-territorial application of the later offence. Lawyers can and often play a role in the facilitation of tax evasion. In light of the findings of the European Parliament’s Committee of Inquiry into Money Laundering, Tax Avoidance and Tax Evasion (PANA), the Bari Declaration of May 13, 2017 and work undertaken by the OECD (for example the Ten Global Principles launched at the OECD´s Fifth Forum on Tax and Crime, the Common Reporting Standard (CRS) and the Mandatory Disclosure Rules for Addressing CRS Avoidance Agreements and Offshore Structures) this paper also looks at the spillover effects of the new UK corporate offence on tax advisers and lawyers in their capacity as “associated persons” vis-a-vis the defense of legal professional privilege. It concludes that the Criminal Finances Act 2017 is consistent with the doctrine of legal professional privileg","PeriodicalId":223837,"journal":{"name":"LSN: Criminal Law (Public Law - Crime) (Topic)","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133907589","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Little evidence exists on the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on criminal behavior, a gap in the literature that this paper seeks to address. Using a one period static model of criminal behavior, I argue we should anticipate a decrease in time devoted to criminal activities in response to the expansion, since the availability of public health insurance not only has a pure negative income effect on crime but also raises the opportunity cost of crime. This prediction is particularly relevant for the ACA expansion, because it primarily affects childless adults, the population that is most likely to engage in criminal behavior. I validate this forecast using a difference-in-differences approach, estimating the expansion’s effects on a panel dataset of state- and county-level crime rates. My point estimates show that the ACA Medicaid expansion is negatively related to burglary, motor vehicle theft, criminal homicide, robbery, and aggravated assault. The value of this Medicaid expansion induced reduction in crime to expansion states is almost $10 billion per year.
{"title":"The Effect of Health Insurance on Crime: Evidence from the Affordable Care Act Medicaid Expansion","authors":"Qiwei He","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3087500","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3087500","url":null,"abstract":"Little evidence exists on the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on criminal behavior, a gap in the literature that this paper seeks to address. Using a one period static model of criminal behavior, I argue we should anticipate a decrease in time devoted to criminal activities in response to the expansion, since the availability of public health insurance not only has a pure negative income effect on crime but also raises the opportunity cost of crime. This prediction is particularly relevant for the ACA expansion, because it primarily affects childless adults, the population that is most likely to engage in criminal behavior. I validate this forecast using a difference-in-differences approach, estimating the expansion’s effects on a panel dataset of state- and county-level crime rates. My point estimates show that the ACA Medicaid expansion is negatively related to burglary, motor vehicle theft, criminal homicide, robbery, and aggravated assault. The value of this Medicaid expansion induced reduction in crime to expansion states is almost $10 billion per year.","PeriodicalId":223837,"journal":{"name":"LSN: Criminal Law (Public Law - Crime) (Topic)","volume":"69 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132424929","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The United States employs an ad hoc, unconventional method of regulating sports betting, banning it almost everywhere while granting a monopoly to firms in a single state, Nevada. This approach encourages illegal sports betting markets, ignores negative externalities, and generates welfare losses among the large population of responsible recreational gamblers. I review the current state of sports betting regulation in the U.S. and assess its economic viability in advance of the Supreme Court of the United States decision on the landmark Christie v. National Collegiate Athletic Association case.
{"title":"An Overview of Sports Betting Regulation in the United States","authors":"B. Humphreys","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3074627","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3074627","url":null,"abstract":"The United States employs an ad hoc, unconventional method of regulating sports betting, banning it almost everywhere while granting a monopoly to firms in a single state, Nevada. This approach encourages illegal sports betting markets, ignores negative externalities, and generates welfare losses among the large population of responsible recreational gamblers. I review the current state of sports betting regulation in the U.S. and assess its economic viability in advance of the Supreme Court of the United States decision on the landmark Christie v. National Collegiate Athletic Association case.","PeriodicalId":223837,"journal":{"name":"LSN: Criminal Law (Public Law - Crime) (Topic)","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129788243","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The 2005 report of the National Research Council (NRC) on Firearms and Violence recognized that violent crime was higher in the post-passage period (relative to national crime patterns) for states adopting right-to-carry (RTC) concealed handgun laws, but because of model dependence the panel was unable to identify the true causal effect of these laws from the then-existing panel data evidence. This study uses 14 additional years of panel data (through 2014) capturing an additional 11 RTC adoptions and new statistical techniques to see if more convincing and robust conclusions can emerge. Our preferred panel data regression specification (the “DAW model”) and the Brennan Center (BC) model, as well as other statistical models by Lott and Mustard (LM) and Moody and Marvell (MM) that had previously been offered as evidence of crime-reducing RTC laws, now consistently generate estimates showing RTC laws increase overall violent crime and/or murder when run on the most complete data. We then use the synthetic control approach of Alberto Abadie and Javier Gardeazabal (2003) to generate state-specific estimates of the impact of RTC laws on crime. Our major finding is that under all four specifications (DAW, BC, LM, and MM), RTC laws are associated with higher aggregate violent crime rates, and the size of the deleterious effects that are associated with the passage of RTC laws climbs over time. Ten years after the adoption of RTC laws, violent crime is estimated to be 13-15% percent higher than it would have been without the RTC law. Unlike the panel data setting, these results are not sensitive to the covariates included as predictors. The magnitude of the estimated increase in violent crime from RTC laws is substantial in that, using a consensus estimate for the elasticity of crime with respect to incarceration of .15, the average RTC state would have to double its prison population to counteract the RTC-induced increase in violent crime.
{"title":"Right-to-Carry Laws and Violent Crime: A Comprehensive Assessment Using Panel Data and a State-Level Synthetic Controls Analysis","authors":"J. Donohue, Abhay P. Aneja, Kyle D. Weber","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2990220","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2990220","url":null,"abstract":"The 2005 report of the National Research Council (NRC) on Firearms and Violence recognized that violent crime was higher in the post-passage period (relative to national crime patterns) for states adopting right-to-carry (RTC) concealed handgun laws, but because of model dependence the panel was unable to identify the true causal effect of these laws from the then-existing panel data evidence. This study uses 14 additional years of panel data (through 2014) capturing an additional 11 RTC adoptions and new statistical techniques to see if more convincing and robust conclusions can emerge. Our preferred panel data regression specification (the “DAW model”) and the Brennan Center (BC) model, as well as other statistical models by Lott and Mustard (LM) and Moody and Marvell (MM) that had previously been offered as evidence of crime-reducing RTC laws, now consistently generate estimates showing RTC laws increase overall violent crime and/or murder when run on the most complete data. We then use the synthetic control approach of Alberto Abadie and Javier Gardeazabal (2003) to generate state-specific estimates of the impact of RTC laws on crime. Our major finding is that under all four specifications (DAW, BC, LM, and MM), RTC laws are associated with higher aggregate violent crime rates, and the size of the deleterious effects that are associated with the passage of RTC laws climbs over time. Ten years after the adoption of RTC laws, violent crime is estimated to be 13-15% percent higher than it would have been without the RTC law. Unlike the panel data setting, these results are not sensitive to the covariates included as predictors. The magnitude of the estimated increase in violent crime from RTC laws is substantial in that, using a consensus estimate for the elasticity of crime with respect to incarceration of .15, the average RTC state would have to double its prison population to counteract the RTC-induced increase in violent crime.","PeriodicalId":223837,"journal":{"name":"LSN: Criminal Law (Public Law - Crime) (Topic)","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115525024","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The national Justice Reinvestment Initiative has arguably been the most important development in American sentencing policy in the past decade. This essay introduces an issue of the Federal Sentencing Reporter that focuses on the JRI. The essay highlights both strengths and weaknesses of the JRI, particularly from the standpoint of reducing mass incarceration in the United States.
{"title":"Justice Reinvestment and the State of State Sentencing Reform","authors":"Michael M. O’Hear","doi":"10.1525/FSR.2016.29.1.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/FSR.2016.29.1.1","url":null,"abstract":"The national Justice Reinvestment Initiative has arguably been the most important development in American sentencing policy in the past decade. This essay introduces an issue of the Federal Sentencing Reporter that focuses on the JRI. The essay highlights both strengths and weaknesses of the JRI, particularly from the standpoint of reducing mass incarceration in the United States.","PeriodicalId":223837,"journal":{"name":"LSN: Criminal Law (Public Law - Crime) (Topic)","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128576649","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Bulgarian Abstract: Настоящият труд подчертава необходимостта от формулиране на препоръки и правила относно организацията и провеждането на разследване на престъпления от служители в сектор „Сигурност“, свързани с корупционни прояви на същите, с оптимално използване достиженията на криминалистическата наука и възможностите на разследващите, и не на последно място - оперативно издирвателните и други подходи. Формулирането на система от правила и препоръки е възможно поради това, че изводите са обосновани чрез изучаването на емпиричен материал, служещ за извеждането на определени закономерности и зависимости и констатирането на слабости и грешки. English Abstract: The paper analyzes the corruption as a social, economic, administrative, political and legislative phenomenon undergone long-term historical development and scrutinized as inevitable but possible to limit. The notions are examined in the terms of the criminal law of the Republic of Bulgaria. The problem of counteracting corruption in the Ministry of Interior is presented in the context of the prerequisites for the corruption behavior of officers, underlining the main corruption practices according to the direction of work of different departments. Conclusion is focused on some important recommendations concerning priorities in undertaking measures of counteraction and prevention and elaboration of methods of investigation.
{"title":"Наказателно правни аспекти на корупцията и установени практики в България (Criminal and Legal Aspects of Corruption and Established Practices in Bulgaria)","authors":"Venelin Terziev, Nikolay Nichev, Stefcho Bankov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3158385","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3158385","url":null,"abstract":"<b>Bulgarian Abstract:</b> Настоящият труд подчертава необходимостта от формулиране на препоръки и правила относно организацията и провеждането на разследване на престъпления от служители в сектор „Сигурност“, свързани с корупционни прояви на същите, с оптимално използване достиженията на криминалистическата наука и възможностите на разследващите, и не на последно място - оперативно издирвателните и други подходи. Формулирането на система от правила и препоръки е възможно поради това, че изводите са обосновани чрез изучаването на емпиричен материал, служещ за извеждането на определени закономерности и зависимости и констатирането на слабости и грешки. <b>English Abstract:</b> The paper analyzes the corruption as a social, economic, administrative, political and legislative phenomenon undergone long-term historical development and scrutinized as inevitable but possible to limit. The notions are examined in the terms of the criminal law of the Republic of Bulgaria. The problem of counteracting corruption in the Ministry of Interior is presented in the context of the prerequisites for the corruption behavior of officers, underlining the main corruption practices according to the direction of work of different departments. Conclusion is focused on some important recommendations concerning priorities in undertaking measures of counteraction and prevention and elaboration of methods of investigation.","PeriodicalId":223837,"journal":{"name":"LSN: Criminal Law (Public Law - Crime) (Topic)","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-10-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123973227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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