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The role of board age diversity in the performance of publicly listed Fintech entities 董事会年龄多样性对上市金融科技公司业绩的影响
Pub Date : 2023-12-24 DOI: 10.1080/1351847x.2023.2287066
Paraskevi Katsiampa, Paul B. McGuinness, Hanxiong Zhang
The present study addresses the important demographic of director age in relation to the performance of the constituent firms of Fintech-focused Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). While private Fintech ...
本研究探讨了董事年龄与以金融科技为重点的交易所交易基金(ETF)成分公司业绩的重要关系。虽然私人金融科技公司...
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引用次数: 0
The influence of cultural norms on international equity allocation 文化规范对国际股权分配的影响
Pub Date : 2023-12-18 DOI: 10.1080/1351847x.2023.2291124
Alexandru Todea, Cristina Harin
We investigate the effect of cultural tightness-looseness on foreign bias in international equity allocation using data for 29 home investor countries and 37 destination countries for the period 20...
我们使用 29 个投资国和 37 个目的地国 20 年间的数据,研究了文化松紧度对国际股票配置中外国偏见的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Bond default risk transmission through a common underwriter: evidence from China 通过共同承销商传递债券违约风险:来自中国的证据
Pub Date : 2023-12-13 DOI: 10.1080/1351847x.2023.2290058
Chunqiang Zhang, Tingyuan Zhu, Xi Gao, Kam C. Chan, Xiaojun Chen
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引用次数: 0
Crash risk connectedness in commodity markets 商品市场的碰撞风险关联性
Pub Date : 2023-12-13 DOI: 10.1080/1351847x.2023.2287673
Najaf Iqbal, Muhammad Abubakr Naeem, Sitara Karim, Muhammad Haseeb
In contrast to the extant literature on returns, volumes, and volatility spillovers, we examine the crash risk connectedness of 13 commodity markets in the energy, metal, and agricultural sectors, ...
与有关收益、交易量和波动溢出效应的现有文献不同,我们研究了能源、金属和农业部门的 13 个商品市场的崩盘风险关联性,...
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引用次数: 0
Cryptocurrency research: future directions 加密货币研究:未来方向
Pub Date : 2023-12-13 DOI: 10.1080/1351847x.2023.2284186
Andrew Urquhart, Larisa Yarovaya
Since Bitcoin was first proposed in late 2008 and went live in 2009, hundreds of research papers have been published trying to understand the behaviour of cryptocurrencies and their impact on finan...
自比特币于 2008 年底首次提出并于 2009 年上线以来,已经发表了数百篇研究论文,试图了解加密货币的行为及其对金融的影响。
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引用次数: 0
How does institutional investor preference influence corporate green innovation in China? 机构投资者的偏好如何影响中国企业的绿色创新?
Pub Date : 2023-11-29 DOI: 10.1080/1351847x.2023.2285338
Zhongfei Chen, Wenbin Zuo, Guanxia Xie
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引用次数: 0
Investigation of the effect of global EPU spillovers on country-level stock market idiosyncratic volatility 全球EPU溢出效应对国家层面股票市场特质波动的影响研究
Pub Date : 2023-11-14 DOI: 10.1080/1351847x.2023.2279141
Mustafa O. Caglayan, Yuting Gong, Wenjun Xue
ABSTRACTUsing the multivariate quantile model, this paper develops a global economic policy uncertainty (EPU) spillover measure for each country and investigates the spillover effects on the country-level stock market idiosyncratic volatility across a sample of 23 economies. The regression results show that global EPU spillovers have a positive and significant effect on the country-level stock market idiosyncratic volatility. We find that the effect of developed-market-generated EPU spillovers on the country-level stock market idiosyncratic risk is noticeably larger compared to the effect of emerging-market-generated EPU spillovers. Furthermore, the significant and positive effect of the EPU spillovers on the country-level stock market idiosyncratic volatility continues when we utilize various economic, financial, and political risk factors as controls, as well as when we use alternative measures of stock market idiosyncratic volatility as the dependent variable in our regression analyses.KEYWORDS: EPU spilloverscountry-level stock market idiosyncratic volatilitymultivariate quantile modelinternational asset pricingJEL CLASSIFICATIONS: C10F30G12G15 AcknowledgementsWe gratefully acknowledge the financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant number 71971133), the National Social Science Foundation of China (grant number 21BGL270) and the Shanghai Science and Technology Committee (grant number 23692111400)Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 The GDP weights utilized in this analysis are from quarterly GDP data and time-varying over the sample period. Specifically, we collect the real GDP data of our sample countries from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook Database on a quarterly basis, and the GDP weights utilized in this calculation are adjusted on a quarterly basis.2 In our analyses we use the first difference of the EPUs in our regression models since the original EPUs are not stationary and do not meet the requirement of the multivariate quantile model (see White, Kim, and Manganelli Citation2015). In addition, when we look at the distribution of the change in EPUs across 23 countries (see Figure B1 in Online Appendix B), we find that the kurtosis is 7.0546, which is evidence of heavy tails in the distribution. Furthermore, the Jarque–Bera test confirms that the change in EPU is not normally distributed. These findings support the necessity to use the multivariate quantile model in analyzing global EPU spillovers.3 For each country i and the other N-1 countries, in each rolling procedure, 36 monthly observations are used for different quantiles. As a robustness check, we have also utilized the 48- and 60-month rolling windows and obtained results similar to the ones generated from a 36-month rolling window approach. These results using the 48- and 60-month rolling window regressions are available upon request and suggest that our results are not dependent on the
摘要本文利用多元分位数模型,建立了各国的全球经济政策不确定性(EPU)溢出度量,并在23个经济体的样本中研究了溢出对国家层面股票市场特异性波动的影响。回归结果表明,全球EPU溢出效应对国家层面股票市场特质波动率具有显著的正向影响。我们发现,与新兴市场产生的EPU溢出效应相比,发达市场产生的EPU溢出效应对国家级股票市场特质风险的影响明显更大。此外,当我们使用各种经济、金融和政治风险因素作为控制因素,以及当我们在回归分析中使用股票市场特殊波动的替代措施作为因变量时,EPU溢出效应对国家级股票市场特殊波动的显著和积极影响仍在继续。关键词:EPU溢出;国家级股市;特殊波动率;感谢国家自然科学基金委员会(批准号:71971133)、国家社会科学基金委员会(批准号:21BGL270)和上海市科学技术委员会(批准号:23692111400)对本文的资助。注1本分析中使用的GDP权重来自季度GDP数据,并在样本期间随时间变化。具体而言,我们每季度从IMF的世界经济展望数据库中收集样本国家的实际GDP数据,并且本计算中使用的GDP权重按季度进行调整在我们的分析中,我们在回归模型中使用epu的第一个差异,因为原始epu不是平稳的,不符合多变量分位数模型的要求(参见White, Kim和Manganelli Citation2015)。此外,当我们观察23个国家的epu变化分布时(见在线附录B中的图B1),我们发现峰度为7.0546,这是分布中存在重尾的证据。此外,Jarque-Bera检验证实EPU的变化不是正态分布的。这些发现支持了使用多元分位数模型分析全球EPU溢出效应的必要性对于每个国家i和其他N-1个国家,在每个滚动过程中,36个月的观察结果用于不同的分位数。作为稳健性检查,我们还使用了48个月和60个月的滚动窗口,并获得了类似于36个月滚动窗口方法产生的结果。这些使用48个月和60个月滚动窗口回归的结果可应要求提供,并表明我们的结果不依赖于本文中使用的36个月滚动窗口技术White, Kim, and Manganelli (Citation2015)的多元分位数模型(MVMQ)在在线附录C.5中提供了详细的解释。继Caglayan, Xue, and Zhang (Citation2020)之后,我们用MSCI ACWI IMI指数的收益减去美国一个月国库券的收益来构建全球市场风险溢价Rm-Rf, MSCI ACWI小盘股指数的收益减去MSCI ACWI大盘股指数的收益来构建全球中小企业因素。用MSCI ACWI大盘股价值指数和小盘股价值指数的平均收益减去MSCI ACWI大盘股成长指数和小盘股成长指数的平均收益来构建全球HML因子。MSCI ACWI IMI指数、其他MSCI ACWI指数和国家IMI指数的单位为美元,其中ACWI代表所有国家世界指数。6作为替代,Brandt等人(Citation2010)和Bekaert, Hodrick, and Zhang (Citation2012)使用个股和Fama-French三因素模型获得误差,并使用标准差计算股票市场的总体特质波动率。然而,这种方法既包含公司层面的风险,也包含国家层面的风险。相比之下,我们的宏观研究将Fama-French三因素模型应用于国家层面的股票市场指数回报,消除了公司层面的风险,保留了国家层面的风险如前所述,我们使用多元分位数模型(见White、Kim和Manganelli Citation2015)估算EPU溢出效应时使用EPU的第一个差异。相应地,为了一致性,我们也在回归模型中使用了国内EPU的变化(国内EPU的第一次差异)我们还将《国际国家风险指南》(ICRG)中的法律和秩序以及投资概况作为我们分析中的备选政治风险因素。 我们使用MSCI发达和MSCI新兴市场小盘股指数的日收益减去MSCI发达和MSCI新兴市场大盘股指数的日收益来生成发达和新兴市场中小企业因素的日价值。我们使用MSCI发达市场指数和MSCI新兴市场价值指数的日收益减去MSCI发达市场指数和MSCI新兴市场增长指数的日收益来生成发达市场和新兴市场HML因素的日价值继Caglayan、Xue和Zhang (Citation2020)之后,我们在全球范围内应用CAPM和Fama和French (Citation1993)三因素模型,每月分别在每个国家的全球CAPM和全球Fama-French三因素模型上运行每日个股市场回报数据,计算每月的国家级股市特质尾部风险。然后,我们分别获得两个模型中的每个模型的日残差,然后通过再次对两个模型中的每个模型使用5% VaR(风险值)来估计国家层面的股票市场特异性尾部风险。风险值是收益损失分布的条件分位数在在线附录A的表A3中,当使用多元分位数模型在50%分位数估计全球EPU溢出时,全球EPU溢出变量仅在10%显著水平下具有统计显著性这两项附加分析的结果可应要求向作者索取在回归方程中加入WUI和股票市场溢出作为控制变量的这两个分析结果可以应作者的要求得到。本研究由国家自然科学基金资助:[批准号71971133];国家社会科学基金项目:[批准号21BGL270]。本文作者穆斯塔法O. Caglayan是佛罗里达国际大学商学院金融学教授和Knight-Ridder研究员。他持有纽约城市大学经济学博士学位,主修金融学。他的研究重点是资产定价、投资、对冲基金、金融风险管理和投资组合优化。龚玉婷,上海大学SHU-UTS SILC商学院副教授。她拥有上海交通大学金融学博士学位。主要研究方向为金融计量经济学和资产定价。薛文君,上海大学SHU-UTS SILC商学院副教授。他拥有佛罗里达国际大学经济学博士学位。主要研究方向为金融市场与金融机构、金融计量经济学。
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引用次数: 0
Internationalization and zero leverage 国际化和零杠杆
Pub Date : 2023-11-14 DOI: 10.1080/1351847x.2023.2277273
Eleni Chatzivgeri, Panagiotis Dontis-Charitos, Sheeja Sivaprasad, Jonathan Williams
Despite growing attention on the role of internationalization in capital structure and the increasing adoption of zero-leverage policies by multinationals (MNC), no study examines the effect of internationalization on zero leverage. Using data from the United Kingdom (UK), we present the first empirical evidence of a positive and significant relationship that increases in the level of internationalization both statistically and economically. We find that the motivation for zero leverage differs between MNC and domestic firms (DOM). Whilst the major driving factor for MNC is the maintenance of financial flexibility, financial constraints motivate DOM.
尽管越来越多的人关注国际化在资本结构中的作用以及跨国公司(MNC)越来越多地采用零杠杆政策,但没有研究考察国际化对零杠杆的影响。使用来自英国(UK)的数据,我们提出了第一个实证证据,证明在统计和经济上,国际化水平的提高具有积极和显著的关系。我们发现,跨国公司和国内公司(DOM)的零杠杆动机是不同的。虽然跨国公司的主要驱动因素是维持财务灵活性,但财务约束激励DOM。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring the differentiation and decentralization of managers' risk attention and their impacts 衡量管理者风险注意力的分化和分散及其影响
Pub Date : 2023-11-09 DOI: 10.1080/1351847x.2023.2277285
Ling Zhou, Zongrun Wang, Jianxin Wang
AbstractManagers' attention to different risk factors conveys important information to investors. This paper examines the association between managers' risk attention allocation schemes and the performance of firms across different sectors. We innovatively use the text mining approach to measure the differentiation and decentralization of risk attention from textual risk disclosures reported in 65,878 10-K statements. The results show significant sector heterogeneity in managers' attention to different risk topics. For the consumer goods sector, managers with differentiated and decentralized topics can improve the company's profitability and solvency. In contrast, managers in the financial and healthcare sectors need to maintain topic attention concentration. In addition, we find that managers' attention to product approval, system security, and business impact has gradually increased over time to adapt to the internet economic environment.Keywords: Risk factorstopic attentiontext mining10-K statementssector heterogeneity Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 SEC (2010). Form 10-K instructions. www.sec.gov/about/forms/form10-k.pdf.Additional informationFundingThis study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [Nos. 72091515]. Notes on contributorsLing ZhouLing Zhou, Ph.D., postdoctoral fellow at Central South University, mainly focuses on causal inference, policy analysis, and text analysis.Zongrun WangZongrun Wang, Professor of Central South University, the head of major and key projects of the National Natural Science Foundation of China, the head of the Applied Economics discipline at Central South University. have long been committed to researching risk management technologies and methods in the field of data analysis and management science, with a particular focus on risk measurement, integration, and decision-making theories and methods, actively carry out academic research and practical work on financial engineering and risk management technology methods.Jianxin WangJianxin Wang is an Associate Professor at Central South University. He received his PhD in Economics from George Mason University and his PhD in Management Science and Engineering from Central South University. His research interests include behavioral economics, experimental economics, and behavioral finance, with a special focus on behavioral economics of alcohol intoxication. He has published in PNAS, Journal of Corporate Finance, Experimental Economics, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization and Economics Letters.
摘要管理者对不同风险因素的关注向投资者传递了重要信息。本文考察了管理者的风险注意力分配方案与不同行业企业绩效之间的关系。我们创新地使用文本挖掘方法来衡量65,878份10-K报表中报告的文本风险披露的风险注意的差异性和分散性。结果显示,管理者对不同风险主题的关注存在显著的行业异质性。对于消费品行业来说,主题差异化和分散化的管理者可以提高公司的盈利能力和偿付能力。相比之下,金融和医疗保健行业的管理者需要保持话题注意力的集中。此外,我们发现随着时间的推移,管理者对产品审批、系统安全性和业务影响的关注逐渐增加,以适应互联网经济环境。关键词:风险因素话题关注文本挖掘10- k报表行业异质性披露报表作者未报告潜在利益冲突。注1 SEC(2010)。填写10-K表格说明。本研究由国家自然科学基金资助[no . 72091515]。周玲,中南大学博士后,博士,主要研究方向为因果推理、政策分析、文本分析。王宗润,中南大学教授,国家自然科学基金重大重点项目负责人,中南大学应用经济学学科带头人。长期致力于数据分析与管理科学领域风险管理技术与方法的研究,尤其关注风险度量、整合与决策的理论与方法,积极开展金融工程与风险管理技术方法的学术研究与实践工作。王建新,中南大学副教授。他在乔治梅森大学获得经济学博士学位,在中南大学获得管理科学与工程博士学位。他的研究兴趣包括行为经济学、实验经济学和行为金融学,特别关注酒精中毒的行为经济学。曾发表于PNAS、Journal of Corporate Finance、Experimental Economics、Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization和Economics Letters。
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引用次数: 0
Interpretable image-based deep learning for price trend prediction in ETF markets 基于可解释图像的ETF市场价格趋势预测深度学习
Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI: 10.1080/1351847x.2023.2275567
Ruixun Zhang, Chaoyi Zhao, Guanglian Lin
AbstractImage-based deep learning models excel at extracting spatial information from images but their potential in financial applications has not been fully explored. Here we propose the channel and spatial attention convolutional neural network (CS-ACNN) for price trend prediction. It utilizes the attention mechanisms to focus on specific areas of input images that are the most relevant for prices. Using exchange-traded funds (ETF) data from three different markets, we show that CS-ACNN – using images constructed from financial time series – achieves on-par and, in some cases, superior performances compared to models that use time series data only. This holds true for both model classification metrics and investment profitability, and the out-of-sample Sharpe ratios range from 1.57 to 3.03 after accounting for transaction costs. The model learns visual patterns that are consistent with traditional technical analysis, providing an economic rationale for learned patterns and allowing investors to interpret the model.Keywords: Price trend predictionconvolutional neural network (CNN)attentionimageinterpretabilityJEL Classifications: C45G11G12G15 AcknowledgmentsWe thank Xiuli Shao for very helpful comments and discussion.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 Specific neural network architectures in this literature include the fully-connected neural networks (Gu, Kelly, and Xiu Citation2020), autoencoders (Gu, Kelly, and Xiu Citation2021), and sequence models (Cong et al. Citation2021a, Citation2021b).2 Jiang, Kelly, and Xiu (Citation2022), a primary example in this literature, focus on learning price patterns from candlestick charts for future price trends, while our framework is able to extract information from both candlestick charts and, more broadly, any images constructed from financial time series.3 We use Python's mpl_finance module, and adopt the convention in China to represent positive trends with red and negative trends with green.4 In particular, they are defined by whether the closing price is higher than the opening price of the day.5 See, for example, Borgefors (Citation1986) and Fang et al. (Citation2021).6 Se(p′) goes to ±∞ when p is very close to 0 or 1. In practice, we clip Se(p) to be between 0 and 1.7 To feed the data into the convolutional neural network, these images are resized and cropped to 112×64 pixels.8 This is referred to as the Gramian Summation Angular Field (GASF) by Wang and Oates (Citation2015). If we define an inner product as ⟨x,y⟩=xy−1−x2⋅1−y2, the image G in Equation (Equation11(11) G=[cos⁡(ϕ1+ϕ1)⋯cos⁡(ϕ1+ϕT)cos⁡(ϕ2+ϕ1)⋯cos⁡(ϕ2+ϕT)⋮⋱⋮cos⁡(ϕT+ϕ1)⋯cos⁡(ϕT+ϕT)]=X~⋅X~′−I−X~2⋅I−X~2′,(11) ) constitute a quasi-Gramian matrix under this inner product.9 The number of filters in VggNet (the number of output channels after convolution) starts from 64 and increases exponentially after each max-pooling operation. The convolution mode of VggNet is ‘same’, meaning that the
摘要基于图像的深度学习模型擅长从图像中提取空间信息,但其在金融应用中的潜力尚未得到充分挖掘。在此,我们提出通道和空间注意卷积神经网络(CS-ACNN)用于价格趋势预测。它利用注意力机制来关注与价格最相关的输入图像的特定区域。使用来自三个不同市场的交易所交易基金(ETF)数据,我们表明CS-ACNN -使用从金融时间序列构建的图像-与仅使用时间序列数据的模型相比,达到了同等水平,在某些情况下,性能优于模型。这对模型分类指标和投资盈利能力都成立,在考虑交易成本后,样本外夏普比率的范围从1.57到3.03。该模型学习与传统技术分析一致的视觉模式,为学习模式提供经济原理,并允许投资者解释模型。关键词:价格趋势预测卷积神经网络(CNN)关注图像可解释性jel分类:C45G11G12G15致谢感谢邵秀丽非常有帮助的评论和讨论。披露声明作者未报告潜在的利益冲突。注1本文献中具体的神经网络架构包括全连接神经网络(Gu, Kelly, and Xiu Citation2020)、自编码器(Gu, Kelly, and Xiu Citation2021)和序列模型(Cong et al.)。Citation2021a Citation2021b)。2Jiang, Kelly和Xiu (Citation2022)是本文献中的一个主要例子,他们专注于从烛台图中学习未来价格趋势的价格模式,而我们的框架能够从烛台图和更广泛地说,从金融时间序列中构建的任何图像中提取信息我们使用Python的mpl_finance模块,采用中国的惯例,用红色表示积极趋势,用绿色表示消极趋势具体来说,它们是通过收盘价是否高于当天的开盘价来定义的例如,参见Borgefors (Citation1986)和Fang等人(Citation2021)当p非常接近0或1时,Se(p ')趋于±∞。在实践中,我们将Se(p)剪辑为0到1.7之间。为了将数据输入卷积神经网络,这些图像被调整大小并裁剪为112×64像素这被Wang和Oates (Citation2015)称为Gramian sum Angular Field (GASF)。如果我们将内积定义为⟨x,y⟩=xy - 1 - x2·1 - y2,则方程(Equation11(11) G=[cos (ϕ1+ϕ1)⋯cos (ϕ1+ϕT)cos (ϕ2+ϕ1)⋯cos (ϕ2+ϕT))]= x ~⋅x ~ ' - I - x ~2·I - x ~2 ',(11))中的像G构成该内积下的拟格兰矩阵VggNet中的过滤器数量(卷积后的输出通道数量)从64个开始,在每次最大池化操作后呈指数增长。VggNet的卷积模式为“相同”,即卷积后的输出图像的维数与输入图像的维数相同,其下采样是通过max-pooling操作实现的原始VggNet中的卷积核数从64个增加到512个。我们选择较小的数字以减轻过拟合一个小的内核也与我们的图像具有相对较小的分辨率这一事实相一致,并且一个小的过滤器能够更好地捕捉局部细节这里我们在H×W上使用括号来突出显示查询、键和值是二维矩阵,其中第一个维度的长度为H×W,第二个维度的长度为C.13我们将LSTM配置为:隐藏层(32个神经元)+隐藏层(64个神经元)+ Dropout(0.25) +完全连接层我们将1D-CNN配置为:Conv1D(32) + MaxPool1D + Conv1D(48) + MaxPool1D + Dropout(0.25) + Conv1D(64) + GlobalAveragePool1D + Dropout(0.25) +全连接层买入并持有策略相当于将所有样本分类为“上行”。从表1可以看出,SPY在测试集中有822天“up”,641天“down”,准确率为822/(822+641)=0.562.16。所有这些实验都是在一台配备Intel(R) Core(TM) i7-9750H CPU @ 2.60GHz.17的笔记本电脑上进行的一张图表可能包含一个以上的技术形态唯一的例外是2833.HK的TBOT。国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFA1007900)、国家自然科学基金项目(12271013)和中央高校(北京大学)基本科研业务费的支持。作者简介张瑞勋,北京大学助理教授。赵朝义是北京大学的一名学生。林光莲是南开大学的一名学生。
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引用次数: 0
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The European Journal of Finance
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