Alessandro Cusimano, C. Donegani, Federico Fantechi, Eun Sun Godwin
In this work we estimate different dose-response functions linking FDI inflows received by developing countries with their economic growth. Although the impact of FDI on the economic growth of host countries has been widely investigated in literature, findings have been ambiguous. Our study proposes a novel ‘dose-response’ approach which allows the response of recipients to different amounts of treatment in terms of FDI inflow to be observed. Our findings show that the estimated dose-response functions are statistically significant for treatment values greater than 20%, after the treatment has been rescaled to a percentage measure of the maximum dose observed, and increasing at a decreasing rate, therefore suggesting three relevant results: a) a country receiving a greater amount of FDI inflows will present a higher economic growth; b) there might be a minimum amount of FDI inflows required to reach some policy effectiveness; c) the initial amounts of FDI inflow are more effective than the subsequent ones. Results will help policymakers to better isolate the effect of FDI on economic growth and conduct informed FDI cost-benefit analysis.
{"title":"FDI Inflows and Economic Growth: A Novel Application of Dose-Response Functions","authors":"Alessandro Cusimano, C. Donegani, Federico Fantechi, Eun Sun Godwin","doi":"10.5296/rae.v16i1.21607","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5296/rae.v16i1.21607","url":null,"abstract":"In this work we estimate different dose-response functions linking FDI inflows received by developing countries with their economic growth. Although the impact of FDI on the economic growth of host countries has been widely investigated in literature, findings have been ambiguous. Our study proposes a novel ‘dose-response’ approach which allows the response of recipients to different amounts of treatment in terms of FDI inflow to be observed. Our findings show that the estimated dose-response functions are statistically significant for treatment values greater than 20%, after the treatment has been rescaled to a percentage measure of the maximum dose observed, and increasing at a decreasing rate, therefore suggesting three relevant results: a) a country receiving a greater amount of FDI inflows will present a higher economic growth; b) there might be a minimum amount of FDI inflows required to reach some policy effectiveness; c) the initial amounts of FDI inflow are more effective than the subsequent ones. Results will help policymakers to better isolate the effect of FDI on economic growth and conduct informed FDI cost-benefit analysis.","PeriodicalId":225665,"journal":{"name":"Research in Applied Economics","volume":"57 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140255221","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Agricultural investment contributes to increased productivity and production. This research analyzes the determinants of agricultural investment decisions in Burkina Faso. A double hurdle model is used to analyze the factors that explain agricultural investment and intensification decisions based on data collected in 2017 by the Laboratory of Quantitative Analysis of Development in Sahel (LAQAD-S). The results show that off-farm income and level of education positively affect household agricultural investment. Economic policy measures to develop income-generating activities and improve household education levels are crucial to raising the level of agricultural investment by rural households in Burkina Faso.
{"title":"Analysis of the Determinants of Agricultural Investment Decisions in Burkina Faso","authors":"Adiaratou Diallo, Pam Zahonogo","doi":"10.5296/rae.v15i2.21551","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5296/rae.v15i2.21551","url":null,"abstract":"Agricultural investment contributes to increased productivity and production. This research analyzes the determinants of agricultural investment decisions in Burkina Faso. A double hurdle model is used to analyze the factors that explain agricultural investment and intensification decisions based on data collected in 2017 by the Laboratory of Quantitative Analysis of Development in Sahel (LAQAD-S). The results show that off-farm income and level of education positively affect household agricultural investment. Economic policy measures to develop income-generating activities and improve household education levels are crucial to raising the level of agricultural investment by rural households in Burkina Faso.","PeriodicalId":225665,"journal":{"name":"Research in Applied Economics","volume":"3 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139162471","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Governments use direct transfers as a fiscal measure to stimulate economic activities during shocks. As COVID-19 continues to ravage economies globally, governments worldwide have responded with fiscal and monetary policies to manage the pandemic’s economic impact. In addition, the U.S. government has intervened with direct transfers to provide liquidity to prevent a prolonged shock. However, opinions are divided on the efficacy of the Keynesian stimulus policy. This study used a mixed-method research design to analyze the classical Keynesian model and compares it with the monetarist model to provide insight into the stimulus policy outcomes of the Coronavirus Aid Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act of 2020 and subsequent policies used to manage the COVID-19 shock. Time-series data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and the Federal Reserve Bank (the Fed) of the percentage changes in GDP, disposable personal income (DPI), and personal consumption expenditure (PCE), as well as unemployment rates (UR), interest rates (INT), and inflation rates (IFL), were collected and analyzed. The study used multiple regression (MR) to empirically examine the variables' relationships to ascertain both models’ short-term efficacy. The results suggest that DPI, PCE, and UR significantly predicted the percentage change in GDP in the Keynesian model, whereas, UR, INT, and IFL did not substantially predict the change in GDP in the monetarist model.
政府利用直接转移支付作为财政措施，在经济受到冲击时刺激经济活动。随着COVID-19继续肆虐全球经济，世界各国政府已采取财政和货币政策应对，以管理大流行的经济影响。此外，美国政府通过直接转移资金进行干预，提供流动性，以防止长期冲击。然而，对于凯恩斯主义刺激政策的效果，人们的意见存在分歧。本研究采用混合方法研究设计，分析经典凯恩斯模型，并将其与货币主义模型进行比较，以深入了解2020年《冠状病毒援助、救济和经济安全法案》(CARES Act of 2020)和随后用于管理COVID-19冲击的政策的刺激政策结果。从经济分析局(BEA)、劳工统计局(BLS)和联邦储备银行(Fed)收集并分析了GDP、个人可支配收入(DPI)、个人消费支出(PCE)以及失业率(UR)、利率(INT)和通货膨胀率(IFL)的百分比变化的时序数据。本研究采用多元回归(MR)实证检验变量之间的关系，以确定两种模型的短期有效性。结果表明，在凯恩斯主义模型中，DPI、PCE和UR显著地预测了GDP的百分比变化，而在货币主义模型中，UR、INT和IFL并没有实质性地预测GDP的变化。
{"title":"The Keynesian Stimulus Model: Stimulating Economic Activities with Direct Transfers","authors":"Christopher Achazie Osuoha","doi":"10.5296/rae.v15i1.20672","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5296/rae.v15i1.20672","url":null,"abstract":"Governments use direct transfers as a fiscal measure to stimulate economic activities during shocks. As COVID-19 continues to ravage economies globally, governments worldwide have responded with fiscal and monetary policies to manage the pandemic’s economic impact. In addition, the U.S. government has intervened with direct transfers to provide liquidity to prevent a prolonged shock. However, opinions are divided on the efficacy of the Keynesian stimulus policy. This study used a mixed-method research design to analyze the classical Keynesian model and compares it with the monetarist model to provide insight into the stimulus policy outcomes of the Coronavirus Aid Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act of 2020 and subsequent policies used to manage the COVID-19 shock. Time-series data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and the Federal Reserve Bank (the Fed) of the percentage changes in GDP, disposable personal income (DPI), and personal consumption expenditure (PCE), as well as unemployment rates (UR), interest rates (INT), and inflation rates (IFL), were collected and analyzed. The study used multiple regression (MR) to empirically examine the variables' relationships to ascertain both models’ short-term efficacy. The results suggest that DPI, PCE, and UR significantly predicted the percentage change in GDP in the Keynesian model, whereas, UR, INT, and IFL did not substantially predict the change in GDP in the monetarist model.","PeriodicalId":225665,"journal":{"name":"Research in Applied Economics","volume":"493 1-2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134077848","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. O., Awosoga, O. A., Babalola, C. P., Okunade, S. O., Agumadu, M. A., Shuaib, F. L.
We empirically conducted a distinct analysis of the efficiency of the stock market before and during the Covid-19 pandemic in Nigeria as well as the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on several indicators of stock market performance. Data were collected on stock variables on monthly basis for the pre-Covid-19 era (2018M02 to 2020M01) and Covid-19 pandemic era (2020M02 to 2022M01) from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, while data on the numbers of daily new confirmed cases (New cases and deaths) as well as the government response stringency index on COVID-19 pandemic were obtained from Our World in Data (OWID). We leveraged numerous advantages of the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to estimate stock market efficiency before and during the Covid-19 pandemic for the purpose of comparison. Also, we employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Mixed Data Sampling (ADL-MIDAS) approach to conduct the impact analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic on stock market performance. We found that, in terms of efficiency, the stock market was more efficient during the Covid-19 pandemic than in the pre-Covid-19 era, being the only active market among other financial markets especially when several restrictions and total lockdown were imposed. In terms of returns and volatility, the study concluded that the Covid-19 pandemic did not significantly influence Nigeria’s stock market performance negatively. However, the government stringency measures had a significant positive impact on the stock market return in Nigeria. Our findings are instructive to policymaking and financial regulation.
{"title":"Impact Analysis of Pandemic on Nigeria’s Stock Market Performance","authors":"A. O., Awosoga, O. A., Babalola, C. P., Okunade, S. O., Agumadu, M. A., Shuaib, F. L.","doi":"10.5296/rae.v14i2.20560","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5296/rae.v14i2.20560","url":null,"abstract":"We empirically conducted a distinct analysis of the efficiency of the stock market before and during the Covid-19 pandemic in Nigeria as well as the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on several indicators of stock market performance. Data were collected on stock variables on monthly basis for the pre-Covid-19 era (2018M02 to 2020M01) and Covid-19 pandemic era (2020M02 to 2022M01) from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, while data on the numbers of daily new confirmed cases (New cases and deaths) as well as the government response stringency index on COVID-19 pandemic were obtained from Our World in Data (OWID). We leveraged numerous advantages of the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to estimate stock market efficiency before and during the Covid-19 pandemic for the purpose of comparison. Also, we employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Mixed Data Sampling (ADL-MIDAS) approach to conduct the impact analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic on stock market performance. We found that, in terms of efficiency, the stock market was more efficient during the Covid-19 pandemic than in the pre-Covid-19 era, being the only active market among other financial markets especially when several restrictions and total lockdown were imposed. In terms of returns and volatility, the study concluded that the Covid-19 pandemic did not significantly influence Nigeria’s stock market performance negatively. However, the government stringency measures had a significant positive impact on the stock market return in Nigeria. Our findings are instructive to policymaking and financial regulation.","PeriodicalId":225665,"journal":{"name":"Research in Applied Economics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117108026","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Human beings are intelligent. More importantly, they are a social species capable of cooperation. Other animals in the kingdom can cooperate. But human beings further distinguish themselves by their innate ability to collaborate. They not only take care of their children they also take care of each other. The purpose of this paper is to compare the relative impacts of collaboration and intelligence on economic growth and development. We illustrate by data and analysis, that collaboration is superior to intelligence as a predictor of per capita real gross domestic product adjusted for purchasing power parity. Collaboration is found to be a statistically significant predictor and intelligence quotient (IQ) is not.
{"title":"Collaboration Trumps Intelligence as a Predictor of Standard of Living","authors":"Dennis Ridley","doi":"10.5296/rae.v14i2.19960","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5296/rae.v14i2.19960","url":null,"abstract":"Human beings are intelligent. More importantly, they are a social species capable of cooperation. Other animals in the kingdom can cooperate. But human beings further distinguish themselves by their innate ability to collaborate. They not only take care of their children they also take care of each other. The purpose of this paper is to compare the relative impacts of collaboration and intelligence on economic growth and development. We illustrate by data and analysis, that collaboration is superior to intelligence as a predictor of per capita real gross domestic product adjusted for purchasing power parity. Collaboration is found to be a statistically significant predictor and intelligence quotient (IQ) is not.","PeriodicalId":225665,"journal":{"name":"Research in Applied Economics","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124428325","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines the relationship among budget deficit, inflation rate and debt to GDP ratio from the perspective of Functional Finance Theory and MMT (Modern Monetary Theory). Using an overlapping generations model under monopolistic competition with bequest motive of consumers, mainly we will show the following results. • Under full employment with constant prices or inflation the debt to GDP ratio does not change from a period to the next period • The interest rate on government bonds should equal the nominal growth rate to achieve full employment with constant prices or inflation under balanced budget excluding interest payments on government bonds. • The inflation rate we need to maintain full employment under balanced budget excluding interest payments on government bonds is determined by the interest rate
{"title":"Analysis of Debt to GDP Ratio with Microeconomic Foundations: Theoretical Basis for MMT Arguments","authors":"Yasuhito Tanaka","doi":"10.5296/rae.v14i1.19865","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5296/rae.v14i1.19865","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the relationship among budget deficit, inflation rate and debt to GDP ratio from the perspective of Functional Finance Theory and MMT (Modern Monetary Theory). Using an overlapping generations model under monopolistic competition with bequest motive of consumers, mainly we will show the following results. • Under full employment with constant prices or inflation the debt to GDP ratio does not change from a period to the next period • The interest rate on government bonds should equal the nominal growth rate to achieve full employment with constant prices or inflation under balanced budget excluding interest payments on government bonds. • The inflation rate we need to maintain full employment under balanced budget excluding interest payments on government bonds is determined by the interest rate","PeriodicalId":225665,"journal":{"name":"Research in Applied Economics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134098161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The problem of poverty in the developing countries and what makes Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) a region with the “highest number of poor people” in the world remains a topical issue that requires serious research attention. Following extant studies, in which the mediating role of financial sector development has not been taken into consideration in their finance- growth and poverty nexus, this study deviates by using two measures of poverty level: absolute and multidimensional poverty level; and at the same time provides comparative analyses at SSA sub-regional communities. Our findings reveal that the effects of inclusive growth on poverty reduction (both absolute and multidimensional level), for most sub-regions in SSA except Central African countries, are positive. While the mediating role of financial sector development appeared to be slightly different with mixed results. In West and Central African countries, the mediating role of the financial sector, though very weak, complements theinclusive growth effects on poverty reduction. On the contrary, financial sector development does not complement inclusive growth when it comes to poverty reduction in South African countries. Also, financial sector development does not complement the absolute poverty reduction effect of inclusive growth in the East African sub-region but the result is otherwise under multidimensional poverty reduction. Therefore, we recommend that financial sector development in most SSA countries should be improved upon through relevant monetary policy that promotes financial innovations, financial sector reforms, efficiency in financial inclusion across the region, and at the same time efforts should be geared toward directing some of the gains in financial sector development to inclusive growth-enhancing activities in southern African sub-region
{"title":"Role of Financial Sector Development in the Nexus Between Inclusive Growth and Poverty: A Regional Comparative Analysis from Sub-Saharan Africa","authors":"Abiodun Sunday Olayiwola, T. Akinbobola","doi":"10.5296/rae.v14i1.19855","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5296/rae.v14i1.19855","url":null,"abstract":"The problem of poverty in the developing countries and what makes Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) a region with the “highest number of poor people” in the world remains a topical issue that requires serious research attention. Following extant studies, in which the mediating role of financial sector development has not been taken into consideration in their finance- growth and poverty nexus, this study deviates by using two measures of poverty level: absolute and multidimensional poverty level; and at the same time provides comparative analyses at SSA sub-regional communities. Our findings reveal that the effects of inclusive growth on poverty reduction (both absolute and multidimensional level), for most sub-regions in SSA except Central African countries, are positive. While the mediating role of financial sector development appeared to be slightly different with mixed results. In West and Central African countries, the mediating role of the financial sector, though very weak, complements theinclusive growth effects on poverty reduction. On the contrary, financial sector development does not complement inclusive growth when it comes to poverty reduction in South African countries. Also, financial sector development does not complement the absolute poverty reduction effect of inclusive growth in the East African sub-region but the result is otherwise under multidimensional poverty reduction. Therefore, we recommend that financial sector development in most SSA countries should be improved upon through relevant monetary policy that promotes financial innovations, financial sector reforms, efficiency in financial inclusion across the region, and at the same time efforts should be geared toward directing some of the gains in financial sector development to inclusive growth-enhancing activities in southern African sub-region","PeriodicalId":225665,"journal":{"name":"Research in Applied Economics","volume":"120 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120962089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study examines the relationship between financial development, income inequality and poverty reduction in a sample of 48 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, observed during the 1980-2017 period. The results indicate that financial development, when proxied by private sector credit and liquid liabilities, reduces poverty. The results are mixed for the Claims on domestic real nonfinancial sector by the Central Bank. On the other hand, the results of the direct and cross-estimates showed a positive and significant effect of income inequality on poverty. We conclude that income inequality is such large that a larger proportion of the population is impoverished and the poverty gap is widening further. Moreover, income inequality seems to slow down the positive effects of financial development on poverty reduction. The findings allow us to recommend that monetary and public authorities in SSA countries support the development of the financial sector, particularly banks, encourage financial institutions to channel financial resources to the poor but with income-generating initiatives and enforce laws to control income inequality.
{"title":"Financial Development, Income Inequality and Poverty Alleviation: Some Empirical Evidence","authors":"Adel Bogari","doi":"10.5296/rae.v13i4.19018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5296/rae.v13i4.19018","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the relationship between financial development, income inequality and poverty reduction in a sample of 48 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, observed during the 1980-2017 period. The results indicate that financial development, when proxied by private sector credit and liquid liabilities, reduces poverty. The results are mixed for the Claims on domestic real nonfinancial sector by the Central Bank. On the other hand, the results of the direct and cross-estimates showed a positive and significant effect of income inequality on poverty. We conclude that income inequality is such large that a larger proportion of the population is impoverished and the poverty gap is widening further. Moreover, income inequality seems to slow down the positive effects of financial development on poverty reduction. The findings allow us to recommend that monetary and public authorities in SSA countries support the development of the financial sector, particularly banks, encourage financial institutions to channel financial resources to the poor but with income-generating initiatives and enforce laws to control income inequality.","PeriodicalId":225665,"journal":{"name":"Research in Applied Economics","volume":"135 2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124256042","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The aim of this paper was to identify key issues facing social entrepreneurship in Morocco through the study of five social enterprises in the province of Ouarzazate in order to evaluate the current situation of this sector and explore its different challenges as well as its future in terms of promotion, development and sustainability.The finding show that the problems and challenges that social enterprise face prove the fact that this accompaniment is not enough or not efficient. Therefore, there are cases of cooperatives who are struggling to survive because of given to them at the start of their activity was not helpful. Reinforcing the capacity-building trainings and mechanisms for social entrepreneurs will enable them to gain a better knowledge and abilities of increasing their chances of succeeding their projects and make them viable.
{"title":"Promoting Social Entrepreneurship in Morocco: The case of NIHD ’s projects in Ouarzazate","authors":"Jabrane Amaghouss, Jihad Ait Hssain","doi":"10.5296/rae.v13i4.19369","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5296/rae.v13i4.19369","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this paper was to identify key issues facing social entrepreneurship in Morocco through the study of five social enterprises in the province of Ouarzazate in order to evaluate the current situation of this sector and explore its different challenges as well as its future in terms of promotion, development and sustainability.The finding show that the problems and challenges that social enterprise face prove the fact that this accompaniment is not enough or not efficient. Therefore, there are cases of cooperatives who are struggling to survive because of given to them at the start of their activity was not helpful. Reinforcing the capacity-building trainings and mechanisms for social entrepreneurs will enable them to gain a better knowledge and abilities of increasing their chances of succeeding their projects and make them viable.","PeriodicalId":225665,"journal":{"name":"Research in Applied Economics","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133002757","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Using a logit model and quarterly data from 1962 to 2021, we test the forecasting power of the yield spread, a popular leading indicator, and show that forecasting models that include the entirety of the term structure of interest rates provide more accurate estimates of future economic downturns. We also show that models that only include the yield spread are implicitly imposing restrictions in the coefficients of the model resulting in lower predictive power and omitted variable bias issues.
{"title":"Using the Entirety of the Term Structure to Forecast Recessions","authors":"Alfredo A. Romero","doi":"10.5296/rae.v13i4.19368","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5296/rae.v13i4.19368","url":null,"abstract":"Using a logit model and quarterly data from 1962 to 2021, we test the forecasting power of the yield spread, a popular leading indicator, and show that forecasting models that include the entirety of the term structure of interest rates provide more accurate estimates of future economic downturns. We also show that models that only include the yield spread are implicitly imposing restrictions in the coefficients of the model resulting in lower predictive power and omitted variable bias issues.","PeriodicalId":225665,"journal":{"name":"Research in Applied Economics","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126716565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：