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The Rise of Obesity in Europe: An Economic Perspective 欧洲肥胖症的增加:一个经济视角
Pub Date : 2009-06-30 DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0327.2009.00226.x
G. Brunello, P. Michaud, Anna Sanz-de-Galdeano
"Obesity in Europe is rising. This paper investigates the economic rationales for public intervention to control obesity. We present new empirical evidence showing that family background is related to obesity among young European adults. This evidence provides a strong basis for intervention on equity grounds, particularly targeted towards children. The case for intervention on efficiency grounds is less clear-cut and in most cases the evidence is relatively weak. We find insufficient evidence that information deficiencies are important, as the majority of Europeans appear to be aware of the bad consequences of obesity on health. We also find that the potential health insurance externality -- non-obese effectively subsidizing obese individuals -- is small. In support of policy intervention, we show that there are product and labour market imperfections. Obese employees earn less than the non-obese. We also find that there is a remarkably high proportion of individuals with self-control problems, who fail to stick to their self-declared weight-related plans. Regulations that affect fast food advertisements and the location and access to fast food vending machines and establishments may help these individuals in controlling their weight." Copyright (c) CEPR, CES, MSH, 2009.
“欧洲的肥胖率正在上升。本文探讨了公共干预控制肥胖的经济依据。我们提出了新的经验证据,表明家庭背景与欧洲年轻人的肥胖有关。这一证据为基于公平的干预提供了强有力的基础,特别是针对儿童的干预。基于效率理由进行干预的理由不那么明确,而且在大多数情况下,证据相对薄弱。我们没有发现足够的证据表明信息缺乏是重要的,因为大多数欧洲人似乎意识到肥胖对健康的不良后果。我们还发现,潜在的健康保险外部性——非肥胖者有效补贴肥胖者——很小。为了支持政策干预,我们证明了产品和劳动力市场存在缺陷。肥胖员工的收入低于非肥胖员工。我们还发现,有相当高比例的人存在自我控制问题,他们无法坚持自己制定的减肥计划。影响快餐广告以及快餐自动售货机和场所的位置和通道的法规可能有助于这些人控制体重。”版权所有(c) CEPR, CES, MSH, 2009
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引用次数: 60
What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts? 在衰退、紧缩和萧条期间会发生什么?
Pub Date : 2008-12-01 DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0327.2009.00231.x
Stijn Claessens, M. Kose, Marco E. Terrones
We provide a comprehensive empirical characterization of the linkages between key macroeconomic and financial variables around business and financial cycles for 21 OECD countries over the period 1960–2007. In particular, we analyze the implications of 122 recessions, 112 (28) credit contraction (crunch) episodes, 114 (28) episodes of house price declines (busts), 234 (58) episodes of equity price declines (busts) and their various overlaps in these countries over the sample period. Our results indicate that interactions between macroeconomic and financial variables can play major roles in determining the severity and duration of recessions. Specifically, we find evidence that recessions associated with credit crunches and house price busts tend to be deeper and longer than other recessions.
我们对21个经合组织国家在1960-2007年期间围绕商业和金融周期的关键宏观经济和金融变量之间的联系进行了全面的实证表征。特别是,我们分析了122次经济衰退、112次(28次)信贷收缩(紧缩)、114次(28次)房价下跌(萧条)、234次(58次)股价下跌(萧条)及其在这些国家样本期内的各种重叠的影响。我们的研究结果表明,宏观经济和金融变量之间的相互作用可以在决定经济衰退的严重程度和持续时间方面发挥重要作用。具体来说,我们发现有证据表明,与信贷紧缩和房价崩盘相关的衰退往往比其他衰退更严重、更持久。
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引用次数: 581
The Political Economy Under Monetary Union: Has the Euro Made a Difference? 货币联盟下的政治经济:欧元起作用了吗?
Pub Date : 2008-11-06 DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0327.2009.00219.x
Marcel Fratzscher, Livio Stracca
"Economic and monetary union (EMU) has transformed Europe and has created an integrated pan-European economy. Much research has focused on understanding this integration process and what benefits and costs it entails. This paper identifies a political economy channel of EMU as the monetary union implies that member states had to transfer or at least curtail their policy autonomy in several areas, such as monetary policy and fiscal policy. The paper shows that EMU has helped reduce the impact of political shocks on the domestic economy of member states but magnified the transmission of political shocks within the euro area. Equally importantly, economies with weak domestic policies and institutions exhibited a significantly higher sensitivity to domestic political shocks before EMU, but not thereafter. While this may entail that EMU has brought benefits to countries with weaker policies and institutions by insulating them from adverse political developments at home, a potential drawback is that it may provide weaker market discipline for domestic political stability." Copyright (c) CEPR, CES, MSH, 2009.
“经济和货币联盟(EMU)改变了欧洲,创造了一个一体化的泛欧洲经济。许多研究都集中在理解这种整合过程以及它带来的收益和成本上。本文确定了欧洲货币联盟的政治经济渠道,因为货币联盟意味着成员国必须转移或至少削减其在货币政策和财政政策等几个领域的政策自主权。研究表明,欧洲货币联盟有助于减少政治冲击对成员国国内经济的影响,但却放大了政治冲击在欧元区内部的传导。同样重要的是,国内政策和制度薄弱的经济体在加入欧洲货币联盟之前,对国内政治冲击表现出明显更高的敏感性,但在加入欧洲货币联盟之后则不然。虽然这可能意味着,欧洲货币联盟使政策和制度较弱的国家免受国内不利政治发展的影响,从而给它们带来了好处,但一个潜在的缺点是,它可能为国内政治稳定提供较弱的市场纪律。”版权所有(c) CEPR, CES, MSH, 2009
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引用次数: 91
Labour Market Institutions and Income Inequality 劳动力市场制度与收入不平等
Pub Date : 2008-10-01 DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0327.2008.00209.x
D. Checchi, C. García-Peñalosa
"Labour market institutions are a crucial determinant of wage inequality, the wage share in aggregate income, and the unemployment rate. Since these variables affect, in turn, the distribution of income across households, the question arises of whether stronger labour market institutions have an impact on income inequality. Institutions can in principle have conflicting effects. For example, a higher unemployment benefit tends to increase the wage share, which in turn reduces inequality, but it also increases the unemployment rate thus making the distribution of income more unequal. This paper examines what is the overall impact of labour market institutions on household income inequality. The evidence indicates that stronger institutions are associated with lower income inequality, but in some cases also with higher rates of unemployment. We explore the magnitude of this trade-off, and quantify the changes in inequality and unemployment that we would observe if a common labour standard were imposed on members of the European Union." Copyright (c) CEPR, CES, MSH, 2008.
“劳动力市场制度是工资不平等、工资在总收入中所占比例以及失业率的关键决定因素。由于这些变量反过来影响家庭之间的收入分配,因此问题就出现了:更强大的劳动力市场制度是否会对收入不平等产生影响。制度原则上可以产生相互冲突的效果。例如,较高的失业救济金往往会增加工资份额,从而减少不平等,但它也会增加失业率,从而使收入分配更加不平等。本文考察了劳动力市场制度对家庭收入不平等的总体影响。证据表明,更强大的制度与较低的收入不平等有关,但在某些情况下也与较高的失业率有关。我们探讨了这种权衡的程度,并量化了如果欧盟成员国实行共同的劳工标准,我们将观察到的不平等和失业率的变化。”版权所有(c) CEPR, CES, MSH, 2008
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引用次数: 161
Financial Integration, Capital Mobility, and Income Convergence 金融一体化、资本流动与收入趋同
Pub Date : 2008-09-01 DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0327.2009.00222.x
A. Abiad, D. Leigh, A. Mody
"Recent studies have found that capital moves 'uphill' from poor to rich countries, and brings little or no growth dividend when it does flow into poor economies. We show that Europe does not conform to this paradigm. In the European experience of financial integration, capital has flown from rich to poor countries, and such inflows have been associated with significant acceleration of income convergence. Analysing broader samples of countries, we find that 'downhill' capital flows tend to be observed above certain thresholds in institutional quality and financial integration. But Europe remains different even when allowing for such threshold effects, and its experience is similar to that of interstate flows within the United States. Our findings are consistent with the notion that financial diversification reduces countries' incentives to save in order to self-insure against specific shocks." Copyright (c) CEPR, CES, MSH, 2009.
“最近的研究发现,资本从贫穷国家向富裕国家‘上坡’,当它流入贫穷经济体时,带来的增长红利很少或根本没有。我们表明,欧洲并不符合这种模式。在欧洲金融一体化的经验中,资本从富国流向穷国,而这种流入与收入趋同的显著加速有关。分析更广泛的国家样本,我们发现,在制度质量和金融一体化的某些阈值之上,往往会观察到“下坡路”资本流动。但是,即使考虑到这种门槛效应,欧洲仍然有所不同,其经验与美国内部的州际流动相似。我们的研究结果与金融多元化降低了国家储蓄的动机以自我保险抵御特定冲击的观点是一致的。”版权所有(c) CEPR, CES, MSH, 2009
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引用次数: 98
Investigating Capitalism Aversion 资本主义厌恶调查
Pub Date : 2008-07-01 DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0327.2008.00205.x
Augustin Landier, D. Thesmar, Mathias Thoenig
Capitalism aversion: There are two non-mutually exclusive theories of individual variations in pro-capitalism opinions. The first theory views pro-capitalism opinions as self-serving: Individuals are opposed to market forces when they threaten their economic rents. The second theory views differences in such opinions as reflecting genuine disagreement on the efficiency of various economic systems. Using individual data, we investigate the validity of both theories, focusing on attitudes toward private ownership, private profit and competition. We find evidence that the first theory explains some of the variations in attitudes. However, consistent with the second theory, we also find evidence of individual learning about the comparative virtues of economic systems. The learning is slow, home-biased and path-dependent. Long-run cultural and historical determinants of pro-market attitudes, such as religion and legal origins, explain more than 40% of the cross-country variations in capitalism aversion. Last, we provide tentative evidence that at the country level, pro-market opinions affect the nature of economic institutions. Our results suggest that the feasibility of economic reform does not depend solely on its impact on the distribution of rents; ideological a-prioris are likely to be important as well.
资本主义厌恶:在支持资本主义的观点中存在两种不相互排斥的个体差异理论。第一种理论认为支持资本主义的观点是自私的:当市场力量威胁到个人的经济租金时,个人就会反对市场力量。第二种理论认为,这些观点的差异反映了对各种经济制度效率的真正分歧。利用个人数据,我们调查了这两种理论的有效性,重点关注对私有制、私人利润和竞争的态度。我们发现有证据表明,第一种理论解释了态度上的一些变化。然而,与第二种理论相一致的是,我们也发现了个人学习经济体系相对优点的证据。学习是缓慢的,家庭偏见和路径依赖。支持市场态度的长期文化和历史决定因素,如宗教和法律渊源,解释了超过40%的资本主义厌恶的跨国差异。最后,我们提供了初步证据,证明在国家层面上,亲市场观点影响经济制度的性质。我们的研究结果表明,经济改革的可行性并不仅仅取决于其对租金分配的影响;意识形态的优先考虑可能也很重要。
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引用次数: 48
Predictability of Aid: Do Fickle Donors Undermine Aid Effectiveness? 援助的可预见性:善变的捐助者会破坏援助的有效性吗?
Pub Date : 2008-06-12 DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0327.2008.00206.x
Oya Celasun, Jan Walliser
"Aid recipients and donors alike frequently voice concerns about the lack of predictability of development aid. The existing literature often treats predictability and volatility as closely related, but this paper shows that they are conceptually and empirically distinct. Using two main data sources, we demonstrate that, contrary to common belief, lack of predictability typically involves managing both aid shortfalls and windfalls, and hampers aid management even in countries with stable implementation of macroeconomic policies. Although regression analysis of the sources of low predictability for a large panel picks up two indicators that could be seen as justifying unexpected revisions in aid disbursements, a large unexplained residual remains for which we cannot identify a link between low predictability and aid effectiveness concerns by donors. Using detailed data from IMF programmes, we demonstrate the significant costs of low predictability of budget aid in relatively well performing recipient countries. Deviations of disbursed from expected budget aid of more than 1% of GDP on average are absorbed asymmetrically: aid shortfalls lead to debt accumulation and cuts in investment spending, whereas aid windfalls help reduce debt but also lead to additional government consumption. Lack of predictability thus shifts government spending from investment to consumption activities." Copyright Journal compilation (c) CEPR, CES, MSH, 2008.
受援国和捐助国经常对发展援助缺乏可预测性表示担忧。现有文献通常将可预测性和波动性视为密切相关,但本文表明它们在概念和经验上是不同的。利用两个主要数据来源,我们证明,与普遍看法相反,缺乏可预测性通常涉及管理援助短缺和意外之财,即使在稳定实施宏观经济政策的国家,也会阻碍援助管理。尽管对大型小组低可预测性来源的回归分析发现了两个指标,这两个指标可以被视为对援助支出进行意外修订的理由,但大量无法解释的残余仍然存在,我们无法确定低可预测性与捐助者对援助有效性的担忧之间的联系。我们利用国际货币基金组织项目的详细数据,证明了预算援助的低可预测性对表现相对较好的受援国造成的巨大成本。平均超过GDP 1%的预算援助支出与预期预算援助的偏差被不对称地吸收:援助短缺导致债务积累和投资支出削减,而援助意外之财有助于减少债务,但也导致额外的政府消费。因此,缺乏可预测性将政府支出从投资转向消费活动。”版权所有(c) CEPR, CES, MSH, 2008。
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引用次数: 123
Regional Inflation Dynamics within and across Euro Area Countries and a Comparison with the United States 欧元区国家内部和整个地区的通货膨胀动态以及与美国的比较
Pub Date : 2008-06-01 DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0327.2009.00214.x
Guenter W. Beck, K. Hubrich, Massimiliano Marcellino
Inflation differentials across regions of an integrated economy can reflect a proper response to demand and supply conditions, but can also indicate distortions with negative welfare implications. Using a novel dataset of regional inflation rates from six euro area countries, we examine the size and persistence of their differentials and find that they appear to be related to factor market distortions and other structural characteristics, rather than to cyclical and growth dynamics. Our empirical analysis shows that only about half of inflation rates variation is accounted for by area-wide factors such as monetary policy or oil price developments. National factors (such as labour market institutions) still play a very important role, and a regional component accounts for about 18% of inflation variability.— Guenter W. Beck, Kirstin Hubrich and Massimiliano Marcellino
一体化经济各区域之间的通货膨胀差异可以反映出对需求和供应条件的适当反应,但也可以表明对福利有负面影响的扭曲现象。使用来自六个欧元区国家的区域通货膨胀率的新数据集,我们检查了它们差异的规模和持久性,发现它们似乎与因素市场扭曲和其他结构性特征有关,而不是与周期性和增长动态有关。我们的实证分析表明,只有大约一半的通胀率变化是由货币政策或油价走势等区域性因素造成的。国家因素(如劳动力市场制度)仍然发挥着非常重要的作用,而地区因素约占通货膨胀变异性的18%。——Guenter W. Beck, Kirstin Hubrich和Massimiliano Marcellino
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引用次数: 139
The Effect of Information and Communication Technologies on Urban Structure 信息通信技术对城市结构的影响
Pub Date : 2008-03-19 DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0327.2008.00200.x
Yannis M. Ioannides, H. Overman, E. Rossi-Hansberg, Kurt Schmidheiny
Two innovations in the last century have changed dramatically the cost of communicating and transmitting information: The first is the widespread adoption of telephony; the second is the internet. We study the implications of these changes in ICT for urban structure. We find robust evidence that increases in the number of telephone lines per capita lead to a more concentrated distribution of city sizes and so correspondingly to more dispersion in the distribution of economic activity in space. The evidence on internet usage is more speculative, although it goes in the same direction. This empirical result is rationalized in a theoretical model.
上个世纪的两项创新极大地改变了通信和传递信息的成本:第一是电话的广泛采用;第二个是互联网。我们研究了这些信息通信技术变化对城市结构的影响。我们发现有力的证据表明,人均电话线数量的增加导致城市规模的分布更加集中,从而相应地导致经济活动在空间上的分布更加分散。关于互联网使用的证据更具有推测性,尽管它们的方向相同。这一实证结果在理论模型中得到了合理化。
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引用次数: 147
Market Services Productivity Across Europe and the US 欧洲和美国的市场服务生产力
Pub Date : 2007-12-23 DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0327.2007.00194.x
R. Inklaar, M. Timmer, Bart van Ark
"Since the mid-1990s, market services have positively influenced labor productivity growth in the US, but not in most European countries. We analyze these cross-country differences in growth dynamics using industry-level measures of output, inputs, and multifactor productivity (MFP) from the new EU KLEMS database. We find that using detailed data has important implications for empirical analysis of policy influences on growth. Increased investment in information and communication technology (ICT) capital and growth in human capital contributed substantially to labor productivity growth in market services across all European countries and the US. However, countries differ most strongly in the rates of efficiency improvement in the use of inputs. We find no evidence of an externality-driven relationship between such efficiency changes and the growth of ICT use or of employment of university-educated workers. We also find that entry liberalization has been beneficial for productivity growth in telecommunications, but not in other service industries." Copyright (c) CEPR, CES, MSH, 2008..
“自上世纪90年代中期以来,市场服务对美国的劳动生产率增长产生了积极影响,但对大多数欧洲国家却并非如此。我们使用来自欧盟KLEMS新数据库的产出、投入和多要素生产率(MFP)等行业层面的指标来分析这些增长动态的跨国差异。我们发现,使用详细的数据对实证分析政策对经济增长的影响具有重要意义。信息和通信技术(ICT)资本投资的增加和人力资本的增长对所有欧洲国家和美国市场服务的劳动生产率增长做出了重大贡献。然而,各国在投入物使用效率的改善率方面差别最大。我们没有发现这种效率变化与信息通信技术使用增长或受过大学教育的工人就业之间存在外部性驱动关系的证据。我们还发现,准入自由化有利于电信业的生产率增长,但不利于其他服务业。”版权所有(c) CEPR, CES, MSH, 2008。
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引用次数: 266
期刊
Wiley-Blackwell: Economic Policy
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