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Needs Analysis and Payback Models for Tractor Design Based on Field Data from Farmers in Sudan 基于苏丹农民田间数据的拖拉机设计需求分析与回报模型
Pub Date : 2023-10-27 DOI: 10.3390/world4040044
Hamza Ahmed, Erika E. Miller
The adoption of agricultural machinery in countries with a developing economy can have a significant impact on improving well-being and pro-poor growth. However, this requires farmers to buy into mechanized farming, which is more likely to happen if the machinery meets their needs. The objective of this paper is to identify deciding factors for traditional farmers to adopt machinery and identify design requirements. Payback models were developed based on these design requirements, willingness to pay, and expected returns. Thirty-six farmers in Sudan were interviewed throughout 2019–2021. Six of these farmers were provided tractors during 2020 and 2021. Differences in net-profits between the 30 control and 6 treatment farms during the mechanized farming seasons were used in the models for expected profits. There were no significant differences in tractor design preferences between the treatment and control groups. Two cost models were estimated using a 95% confidence interval: entire Δ profit (entire additional profit from mechanized farming above nonmechanized) and percentage of total profit (percentage of total net-profits willing to spend). For the average farm size in this study (44.39 acres) and a market available tractor that satisfied all farmer needs, payback was 3.92 years [2.34, 8.54] and 4.57 years [3.39, 6.38] for the models, respectively.
在经济发展中国家采用农业机械可以对改善福祉和有利于穷人的增长产生重大影响。然而,这需要农民购买机械化耕作,如果机械满足他们的需求,这更有可能发生。本文的目的是确定传统农民采用机械的决定因素和确定设计要求。回报模型是基于这些设计需求、支付意愿和预期回报开发的。在2019-2021年期间,对苏丹的36名农民进行了采访。其中6名农民在2020年和2021年期间获得了拖拉机。在预期利润模型中使用了30个对照和6个处理农场在机械化耕作季节的净利润差异。试验组和对照组在拖拉机设计偏好上没有显著差异。使用95%置信区间估计了两个成本模型:整个Δ利润(机械化农业高于非机械化农业的全部额外利润)和总利润的百分比(愿意花费的总净利润的百分比)。对于本研究的平均农场规模(44.39英亩)和满足所有农民需求的市场可用拖拉机,模型的投资回收期分别为3.92年[2.34,8.54]和4.57年[3.39,6.38]。
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引用次数: 0
World Population Growth: A Once and Future Global Concern 世界人口增长:过去和未来的全球关注
Pub Date : 2023-10-24 DOI: 10.3390/world4040043
Karl-Erik Norrman
The challenge posed by global population growth has been clear to most scientists since at least the 1950s. In the 1970s, it became conventional wisdom that “the population explosion” constituted a threat to humanity and to sound social, economic and ecological development. This conviction was clearly demonstrated at UN conferences on the environment (1972) and population (1974). It was also confirmed in the important UN report Our Common Future, presented by the Brundtland Commission in 1987. Since the 1990s, international interest in population issues has decreased dramatically and has even become a taboo in certain academic and political discourses. This paper will try to analyze some of the reasons for these changes in attitudes and will present proposals on how to push the population issue back on to the international agenda.
至少从20世纪50年代开始,大多数科学家就已经清楚全球人口增长带来的挑战。20世纪70年代,人们普遍认为“人口爆炸”对人类和社会、经济和生态的健康发展构成了威胁。这一信念在联合国环境会议(1972年)和人口会议(1974年)上得到了明确的体现。1987年布伦特兰委员会提出的重要的联合国报告《我们共同的未来》也证实了这一点。自20世纪90年代以来,国际上对人口问题的兴趣急剧下降,甚至成为某些学术和政治话语中的禁忌。本文将试图分析这些态度变化的一些原因,并就如何将人口问题重新列入国际议程提出建议。
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引用次数: 0
A New Perspective on the Natural Resource Curse 自然资源诅咒的新视角
Pub Date : 2023-10-23 DOI: 10.3390/world4040042
Thomas C. Kinnaman
Early papers found empirical support for a natural resource curse—the notion that exporting natural resources is detrimental to economic growth. Later papers, using reportedly improved econometric models and data, largely reversed these early findings by estimating that natural resources improve economic performance. However, this changing coefficient on natural resource dependence over time may not only be a function of model or data quality. Masked by this evolution in the economics literature is the possibility that the fundamental relationship between natural resources and economic performance has changed over the past several decades. This paper sheds a new perspective on the substantial resource curse literature by repeatedly estimating a single econometric model on data that evolve over time. The coefficient on natural resource dependence is estimated to steadily increases with the passage of time from a value that is negative and significant (for 1970, the basis for much of the early literature) to a positive and significant value a few decades later. Whatever natural resource estimated initially with data from 1970 seems to have evolved into a resource blessing over time.
早期的论文发现了自然资源诅咒的实证支持,即出口自然资源不利于经济增长的观点。后来的论文,据称使用改进的计量经济学模型和数据,通过估计自然资源改善经济表现,在很大程度上推翻了这些早期的发现。然而,这种随时间变化的自然资源依赖系数可能不仅仅是模型或数据质量的函数。在经济学文献的这种演变背后,隐藏着这样一种可能性:在过去几十年里,自然资源与经济表现之间的基本关系发生了变化。本文通过反复估计随时间变化的数据的单一计量经济模型,为大量资源诅咒文献提供了一个新的视角。据估计,自然资源依赖系数随着时间的推移稳步增加,从一个负的、显著的值(1970年,许多早期文献的基础)到几十年后的正的、显著的值。无论最初用1970年的数据估计的自然资源是什么,随着时间的推移,它似乎已经演变成一种资源祝福。
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引用次数: 0
Spatial Analysis of Mountain and Lowland Anoa Habitat Potential Using the Maximum Entropy and Random Forest Algorithm 基于最大熵和随机森林算法的山地和低地Anoa生境潜力空间分析
Pub Date : 2023-10-03 DOI: 10.3390/world4040041
Diah Ardiani, Lalu Muhamad Jaelani, Septianto Aldiansyah, Mangapul Parlindungan Tambunan, Mochamad Indrawan, Andri A. Wibowo
The Anoa is a wild animal endemic to Sulawesi that looks like a small cow. Anoa are categorized as vulnerable to extinction on the IUCN red list. There are two species of Anoa, namely Lowland Anoa (Bubalus depressicornis) and Mountain Anoa (Bubalus quarlesi). In this study, a comparison of potential habitat models for Anoa species was conducted using Machine Learning algorithms with the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) and Random Forest (RF) methods. This modeling uses eight environmental variables. Where based on the results of Bubalus quarlesi potential habitat modeling, the RF 75:25 model is the best algorithm with the highest variable contribution, namely humidity of 82.444% and a potential area of 5% of Sulawesi Island, with an Area Under Curve (AUC) of 0.987. Meanwhile, the best Bubalus depressicornis habitat potential model is the RF 70:30 algorithm, with the highest variable contribution, namely population of 88.891% and potential area of 36% of Sulawesi Island, with AUC 0.967. This indicates that Anoa extinction is very sensitive to the presence of humidity and human population levels.
Anoa是苏拉威西岛特有的一种野生动物,看起来像一头小母牛。在世界自然保护联盟的红色名录中,Anoa被列为易灭绝物种。野蛙有低地野蛙(Bubalus depressicornis)和山地野蛙(Bubalus quarlesi)两种。采用最大熵(MaxEnt)机器学习算法和随机森林(RF)方法对Anoa物种的潜在栖息地模型进行了比较。该建模使用了8个环境变量。其中,基于潜在栖息地建模结果,RF 75:25模型是最佳算法,变量贡献最大,湿度为82.444%,潜在面积为苏拉威西岛的5%,曲线下面积(AUC)为0.987。同时,最佳的生境潜力模型为RF 70:30算法,其变量贡献最高,种群占苏拉威西岛的88.891%,潜在面积占苏拉威西岛的36%,AUC为0.967。这表明,Anoa灭绝是非常敏感的湿度和人口水平的存在。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of Restoration and Conservation of Riparian Vegetation on Sediment Retention in the Catchment Area of Corumbá IV Hydroelectric Power Plant, Brazil 巴西corumb<e:1>水电站集水区河岸植被恢复与保护对泥沙截留的影响
Pub Date : 2023-09-26 DOI: 10.3390/world4040040
Natália Pezzi Fachinelli, Amaro Olímpio Pereira
Vegetation cover and land use are important factors related to the capacity of ecosystems to provide soil loss regulation and sediment retention services, which are highly relevant for sediment management in watersheds draining into reservoirs with multiple water uses. One way to ensure the protection and recovery of vegetation by landowners in Brazil is the implementation of the federal Native Vegetation Protection Law (NVPL), which designates environmentally sensitive areas as Areas of Permanent Preservation (APPs), aiming to conserve water resources and prevent soil erosion. The benefits of riparian vegetation in the catchment of Corumbá IV Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP), located in the Brazilian Cerrado, were analyzed considering landscape reconfigurations from a baseline condition (year 2011) in order to account for the recovery of riparian vegetation by the agricultural sector, as foreseen in the NVPL. The Sediment Delivery Ratio (SDR) model from the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs) package was used to map and quantify variations in sediment export and sediment retention throughout the catchment. The reduction in annual sediment export in the drainage basin of the Corumbá IV reservoir reached −27% in the scenario where the total deficit of riparian APPs occupied by pasture or agriculture in the baseline map (41.000 ha) are recovered. While 14% of riparian APP are occupied by crops versus 86% occupied by pasture in the drainage basin of the Corumbá IV HPP, the recovery of riparian zones occupied by agricultural activities resulted in the greatest benefits in sediment retention for the reservoir. The methodology employed in this study can support the prioritization of sectoral efforts for the restoration and conservation of native vegetation, considering the highest returns in benefits perceived by water users affected by sediment input in reservoirs. The study’s results reinforce the importance of conserving vegetation in riparian areas and their surroundings for sediment retention, highlighting the role of these areas as assets in providing water-related ecosystem services. For future developments, it is suggested to assess the interconnections among the energy, water, and food sectors to better understand the barriers and challenges to the maintenance and improvement of water-related ecosystem services in the catchment area of Corumbá IV HPP.
植被覆盖和土地利用是关系到生态系统调节土壤流失和保持泥沙服务能力的重要因素,这与汇入多种用水用途水库的流域泥沙管理高度相关。确保巴西土地所有者保护和恢复植被的一种方法是实施联邦《原生植被保护法》(NVPL),该法将环境敏感地区指定为永久保护区(APPs),旨在保护水资源和防止土壤侵蚀。本文分析了位于巴西Cerrado的corumb IV水电站(HPP)集水区河岸植被的效益,并考虑了基线条件(2011年)的景观重构,以便考虑到农业部门对河岸植被的恢复,正如NVPL所预见的那样。利用InVEST(环境服务与权衡综合评估)一揽子计划中的泥沙输送比(SDR)模型,绘制和量化整个流域泥沙输出和泥沙保留的变化。在恢复基线图(4.1万ha)中被牧场或农业占用的河岸app总赤字的情况下,库仑 IV水库流域年输沙量减少了- 27%。虽然在corumb IV HPP流域中,14%的河岸APP被作物占用,而86%的河岸APP被牧场占用,但农业活动占用的河岸带的恢复为水库带来了最大的泥沙保留效益。考虑到受水库沉积物输入影响的用水者所感受到的最高收益,本研究中采用的方法可以支持部门努力的优先次序,以恢复和保护原生植被。该研究的结果强调了保护河岸地区及其周围植被对沉积物保留的重要性,强调了这些地区作为提供与水有关的生态系统服务的资产的作用。在未来的发展中,建议对能源、水和粮食部门之间的相互联系进行评估,以更好地了解在corumb IV型HPP集水区维持和改善与水有关的生态系统服务的障碍和挑战。
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引用次数: 0
Social Life Cycle Analysis of Intensive Greenhouse Farming: A Qualitative View of Tomato Production in Almeria (Spain) 集约化温室农业的社会生命周期分析——以西班牙阿尔梅里亚地区番茄生产为例
Pub Date : 2023-09-21 DOI: 10.3390/world4030039
Miriam Martín-Moreno, Katia Hueso-Kortekaas, Jose C. Romero
This paper presents an exploratory qualitative Social Life Cycle Analysis (S-LCA) of intensive greenhouse tomato farming in Almeria, Spain, with a specific focus on the social impacts on migrant workers. By setting as a functional unit the production of 10 kg of greenhouse tomato, the study investigates the social dynamics and challenges faced by migrant workers within the industry. The research sheds light on the negative aspects of intensive greenhouse farming for migrants, i.e., labor conditions, health and safety risks, social inequality, and exploitation of migrant labor. Utilizing document analysis, this study contributes to the field of S-LCA by providing a nuanced understanding of the social dimensions surrounding tomato production and migrant workers’ experiences. It emphasizes the need for sustainable practices, improved labor conditions, and ethical considerations to ensure a socially responsible tomato farming industry. The findings have implications for policymakers, industry stakeholders, and consumers, providing insights for informed decision-making and the promotion of socially sustainable agricultural practices that prioritize the well-being and rights of migrant workers in the context of intensive greenhouse farming in Almeria.
本文对西班牙阿尔梅里亚集约化温室番茄种植进行了探索性质的社会生命周期分析(S-LCA),并特别关注了对农民工的社会影响。通过将温室番茄的产量设定为10公斤的功能单位,该研究调查了该行业内农民工面临的社会动态和挑战。该研究揭示了集约化温室农业对移徙者的负面影响,即劳动条件、健康和安全风险、社会不平等以及对移徙劳工的剥削。通过文献分析,本研究对番茄生产与农民工经历的社会维度进行了细致入微的理解,为S-LCA领域的研究做出了贡献。它强调了可持续实践、改善劳动条件和道德考虑的必要性,以确保番茄种植业对社会负责。研究结果对政策制定者、行业利益相关者和消费者具有启示意义,为明智决策和促进社会可持续农业实践提供了见解,这些农业实践在阿尔梅里亚集约化温室农业的背景下优先考虑移民工人的福祉和权利。
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引用次数: 0
Where Are the Demographic Dividends in Sub-Saharan Africa? 撒哈拉以南非洲的人口红利在哪里?
Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI: 10.3390/world4030038
Michel Garenne
This paper reviews the concept of the demographic dividend and the empirical evidence therefor. The demographic dividend is mainly the result of fertility decline (lower number of births, lower population growth) which translates into a population age structure with a larger work force (age 15–64) and a smaller proportion of children (age 0–14), together with initially few elderly persons (age 65+). In turn, this favors economic growth, but it also has many consequences for households and for state budgets, as well as long-term consequences for population size and the environment. The first part of this paper shows the small correlations at the national macro-economic level between dependency ratios and economic growth. The second part shows the strong correlations at the household level between levels of fertility, child mortality and modern education. The third part discusses the many other correlates of the demographic dividend. The often-cited and controversial focus of the demographic dividend on economic growth hides many other positive effects of fertility control on households, on state budgets, and, in the long-run, on societies and the environment.
本文回顾了人口红利的概念及其实证证据。人口红利主要是生育率下降(出生人数减少,人口增长率下降)的结果,这导致人口年龄结构中劳动力(15-64岁)较多,儿童(0-14岁)比例较小,老年人(65岁以上)最初很少。反过来,这有利于经济增长,但它也对家庭和国家预算产生了许多影响,对人口规模和环境也产生了长期影响。本文的第一部分表明,在国家宏观经济层面上,抚养比与经济增长之间存在较小的相关性。第二部分显示了在家庭层面上生育率、儿童死亡率和现代教育水平之间的强相关性。第三部分讨论了人口红利的许多其他相关因素。人口红利对经济增长的关注经常被引用和引起争议,这掩盖了生育控制对家庭、国家预算以及长期社会和环境的许多其他积极影响。
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引用次数: 0
Associating Economic Growth and Ecological Footprints through Human Capital and Biocapacity in South Asia 通过人力资本和生物承载力将南亚经济增长和生态足迹联系起来
Pub Date : 2023-09-13 DOI: 10.3390/world4030037
Usman Mehmood, Muhammad Umar Aslam, Muhammad Adil Javed
The ecological footprint (EF) has been used as an environmental indicator in most of the past research. Due to the complex linkages between economic growth and human development, EF has been inadequately understood in policy making. This research attempts to investigate the impacts of economic growth, human capital, biocapacity, and urbanization on the factors affecting the ecological footprint (EF) of five South Asian countries. To provide empirical evidence, this study utilizes the annual data from 1990 to 2022 for Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. The findings confirm the positive contribution of GDP, human capital, biocapacity, and urbanization to EF. The causality analysis shows feedback association between GDP and EF, human capital and EF, and biocapacity and EF.
过去的研究大多将生态足迹作为一种环境指标。由于经济增长和人类发展之间的复杂联系,EF在政策制定中一直没有得到充分的理解。本研究试图探讨经济增长、人力资本、生物承载力和城市化对南亚五国生态足迹影响因素的影响。为了提供经验证据,本研究利用了1990年至2022年巴基斯坦、印度、孟加拉国、尼泊尔和斯里兰卡的年度数据。研究结果证实了GDP、人力资本、生物承载力和城市化对生态环境的正向贡献。因果关系分析表明,GDP与生态承载力、人力资本与生态承载力、生物承载力与生态承载力之间存在反馈关系。
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引用次数: 0
Scientists’ Warning: Remove the Barriers to Contraception Access, for Health of Women and the Planet 科学家警告:为了妇女和地球的健康,消除避孕障碍
Pub Date : 2023-09-11 DOI: 10.3390/world4030036
Jan Greguš, John Guillebaud
The human population reached 8 billion in 2022 and is still growing, and will possibly peak at 10.4 billion in 2086. Environmental science mandates that continued growth of the human enterprise on a finite planet is unsustainable and already in overshoot. Indeed, 3 billion is an evidence-based target number, for our species in competition with all non-human life-forms. We must achieve zero population growth and, ultimately, a massive decrease. Commonly, even among environmentalists who are not “population-deniers”, human numbers are seen as a given, to be adapted to rather than influenced or managed. Yet, just and appropriate interventions exist. The fundamental requirement is the empowerment of women, removing the barriers in many settings to their education (including environmental education, and the reproductive ethics of smaller families) and to realistic, voluntary access to contraception. Wherever “reproductive health” includes access to rights-based family planning, this not only promotes the health of the planet but also women’s health through, inter alia, their choice to have fewer and better-spaced children. This is ethical, pragmatic, and cost-effective—a prime example of preventive medicine. Politicians (mostly men) everywhere must embrace this long-term thinking and significantly increase the currently inadequate funding of contraceptive care. Herein is another Scientists’ Warning: there is just one planet for all life.
2022年,全球人口达到80亿,并仍在增长,2086年可能达到104亿的峰值。环境科学认为,在这个有限的星球上,人类事业的持续增长是不可持续的,而且已经过度了。事实上,30亿是一个有证据证明的目标数字,因为我们的物种正在与所有非人类的生命形式竞争。我们必须实现人口零增长,并最终大幅减少人口。通常,即使在不否认人口的环保主义者中,人口数量也被视为一个给定的数字,需要适应,而不是受到影响或管理。然而,公正和适当的干预措施是存在的。基本要求是赋予妇女权力,消除在许多情况下妨碍她们接受教育(包括环境教育和小家庭的生殖道德)和实际自愿获得避孕的障碍。只要"生殖健康"包括获得基于权利的计划生育,这不仅促进了地球的健康,而且还通过妇女选择少生孩子和缩短生育间隔等方式促进了妇女的健康。这是合乎道德的、实用的、具有成本效益的——预防医学的一个主要例子。世界各地的政治家(主要是男性)必须接受这种长期思考,并大幅增加目前不足的避孕保健资金。这是另一个科学家的警告:对于所有生命来说,只有一个星球。
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引用次数: 0
The Health Silk Road: A Double-Edged Sword? Assessing the Implications of China’s Health Diplomacy 健康丝绸之路:一把双刃剑?评估中国卫生外交的影响
Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.3390/world4020021
Shaoyu Yuan
The Health Silk Road (HSR) of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) of China aims to enhance public health and foster international cooperation in the healthcare sector. HSR objectives include strengthening healthcare infrastructure, expanding China’s global health leadership, and enhancing international health cooperation. The aim of this study was to examine the HSR and its implications for global health and international relations by using expert opinion analysis on known major HSR initiatives. We analyzed the objectives of HSR, including improving healthcare infrastructure, enhancing global health cooperation, and expanding China’s global health leadership. Additionally, as a case study, an in-depth analysis of the China-Pakistan collaboration on healthcare under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) was conducted. This research posits that the HSR has a mix of positive and negative implications. Positive impacts of HSR include improved healthcare services, infrastructure, and capacity-building in participating countries. The main challenges include the quality and sustainability of the infrastructure and services provided, debt sustainability, transparency of projects, and China’s geopolitical influence. This research identified five motives behind China’s HSR: economic interests, diplomatic influence, reputation building, regional stability, and health security. The summary centers on CPEC and the WHO/Global collaboration. This research contributes to a nuanced understanding of the HSR’s multifaceted impacts and underscores the importance of open dialogue, cooperation, and the sharing of best practices among stakeholders. By assessing the motives, implications, and concerns of the HSR, this study offers valuable insights for policymakers, global health practitioners, and scholars, highlighting the significance of international collaboration.
中国“一带一路”倡议的“健康丝绸之路”旨在提升公共卫生水平,促进医疗卫生领域的国际合作。高铁的目标包括加强卫生基础设施建设,扩大中国在全球卫生领域的领导地位,以及加强国际卫生合作。本研究的目的是通过对已知的主要高铁倡议进行专家意见分析,审查高铁及其对全球卫生和国际关系的影响。我们分析了高铁的目标,包括改善医疗基础设施,加强全球卫生合作,扩大中国在全球卫生领域的领导地位。此外,作为案例研究,深入分析了中巴经济走廊(CPEC)下的中巴医疗卫生合作。这项研究假设高铁既有积极的影响,也有消极的影响。高铁的积极影响包括改善参与国的医疗保健服务、基础设施和能力建设。主要挑战包括所提供的基础设施和服务的质量和可持续性、债务可持续性、项目透明度以及中国的地缘政治影响力。这项研究确定了中国高铁背后的五个动机:经济利益、外交影响力、声誉建设、地区稳定和卫生安全。摘要主要围绕中巴经济走廊和世卫组织/全球合作展开。这项研究有助于对高铁的多方面影响有细致的了解,并强调了利益相关者之间公开对话、合作和分享最佳实践的重要性。通过评估高铁的动机、影响和关注点,本研究为政策制定者、全球卫生从业者和学者提供了有价值的见解,强调了国际合作的重要性。
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