Abstract Studying driving records (DR) and assessing their risk relativity is crucial for auto insurance rate regulation. Typically, the evaluation of DR involves estimating risk using empirical loss cost or modeling approaches such as Generalized Linear Models (GLM). This article presents a novel methodology employing Generalized Additive Models (GAM) to estimate the risk relativity of DR. By treating the integer level of DR as a continuous variable, the proposed method offers enhanced flexibility and practicality in evaluating the associated risk. Extending the linear model to GAM is a critical advancement that harnesses advanced statistical methods in actuarial practice, providing a more statistically robust application of the proposed approach. Moreover, the integration of functional patterns with Class or Territory enables the investigation of statistical evidence supporting the existence of associations between risk factors. This approach helps address the issue of potential double penalties in insurance pricing and calls for a statistical solution to overcome this challenge. Our study demonstrates that utilizing the GAM approach yields a more balanced estimation of DR relativity, thereby reducing discrimination among different DR levels. This finding highlights the potential of this statistical method to improve fairness and accuracy in auto insurance rate making and regulation.
{"title":"Estimating Risk Relativity of Driving Records using Generalized Additive Models: A Statistical Approach for Auto Insurance Rate Regulation","authors":"Shengkun Xie","doi":"10.1515/apjri-2023-0032","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/apjri-2023-0032","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Studying driving records (DR) and assessing their risk relativity is crucial for auto insurance rate regulation. Typically, the evaluation of DR involves estimating risk using empirical loss cost or modeling approaches such as Generalized Linear Models (GLM). This article presents a novel methodology employing Generalized Additive Models (GAM) to estimate the risk relativity of DR. By treating the integer level of DR as a continuous variable, the proposed method offers enhanced flexibility and practicality in evaluating the associated risk. Extending the linear model to GAM is a critical advancement that harnesses advanced statistical methods in actuarial practice, providing a more statistically robust application of the proposed approach. Moreover, the integration of functional patterns with Class or Territory enables the investigation of statistical evidence supporting the existence of associations between risk factors. This approach helps address the issue of potential double penalties in insurance pricing and calls for a statistical solution to overcome this challenge. Our study demonstrates that utilizing the GAM approach yields a more balanced estimation of DR relativity, thereby reducing discrimination among different DR levels. This finding highlights the potential of this statistical method to improve fairness and accuracy in auto insurance rate making and regulation.","PeriodicalId":244368,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance","volume":"50 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138588314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Michelle Dong, Aaron Bruhn, Han Lin Shang, Francis Hui
Abstract Understanding climate-related risks and stresses is an emerging area of interest for life insurers globally. However, there are complexities in quantifying climate risk stress impacts due to the long-term nature of these risks, and the interactions between physical and transition risks over time. In this paper, we build on understanding the financial impacts of climate risk stresses for life insurers in Australia, by identifying key climate-related mortality risks, and quantifying these by applying short- and long-term stresses from existing literature to two synthetic life insurers. We perform sensitivity tests to demonstrate the variability and range of plausible results. Overall, results show that the expected financial impacts from short-term events in isolation are small relative to expected long-term changes in mortality. Furthermore, the value of a mortality hedge is even more apparent given the increased mortality risk for yearly renewable-term insurers in the short to medium term.
{"title":"Assessing the Impact of Climate Risk Stresses on Life Insurance Portfolios","authors":"Michelle Dong, Aaron Bruhn, Han Lin Shang, Francis Hui","doi":"10.1515/apjri-2023-0010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/apjri-2023-0010","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Understanding climate-related risks and stresses is an emerging area of interest for life insurers globally. However, there are complexities in quantifying climate risk stress impacts due to the long-term nature of these risks, and the interactions between physical and transition risks over time. In this paper, we build on understanding the financial impacts of climate risk stresses for life insurers in Australia, by identifying key climate-related mortality risks, and quantifying these by applying short- and long-term stresses from existing literature to two synthetic life insurers. We perform sensitivity tests to demonstrate the variability and range of plausible results. Overall, results show that the expected financial impacts from short-term events in isolation are small relative to expected long-term changes in mortality. Furthermore, the value of a mortality hedge is even more apparent given the increased mortality risk for yearly renewable-term insurers in the short to medium term.","PeriodicalId":244368,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance","volume":"3 7","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136229504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper surveys insurance policies and proposals by companies that operated in the decades around 1800 in different regions of the North American continent. Our survey serves to compose a landscape of environmental risks that early insurers registered. This line of inquiry merits special attention for records of the Phoenix Assurance Company London, which include a unique documentation of natural hazards shaped by the risk inspection tour of the British insurance expert Jenkin Jones. We attempt to offer a long-term view on those natural catastrophes and disaster-prone regions that hold a prominent place in American memory since the late nineteenth century.
{"title":"The Risk of Natural Catastrophe in Early America: Perspectives from the Phoenix Assurance Company London and Nascent US Insurers","authors":"Elisabeth Engel","doi":"10.1515/apjri-2023-0039","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/apjri-2023-0039","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper surveys insurance policies and proposals by companies that operated in the decades around 1800 in different regions of the North American continent. Our survey serves to compose a landscape of environmental risks that early insurers registered. This line of inquiry merits special attention for records of the Phoenix Assurance Company London, which include a unique documentation of natural hazards shaped by the risk inspection tour of the British insurance expert Jenkin Jones. We attempt to offer a long-term view on those natural catastrophes and disaster-prone regions that hold a prominent place in American memory since the late nineteenth century.","PeriodicalId":244368,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance","volume":"98 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115760061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-01DOI: 10.1515/apjri-2023-frontmatter2
{"title":"Frontmatter","authors":"","doi":"10.1515/apjri-2023-frontmatter2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/apjri-2023-frontmatter2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":244368,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance","volume":"112 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135804803","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Special Issue: History of Insurance in a Global Perspective: A Novel Research Agenda","authors":"M. Lengwiler","doi":"10.1515/apjri-2023-0028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/apjri-2023-0028","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":244368,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126587745","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract In contrast to previous work, this paper studies the product-dependent risk sensitivities of policyholders toward the reported safety levels of a life insurer in a long-term multi-period setting. With this aim, we first conduct two choice-based conjoint analyses using a German survey panel to investigate the effect of an insurer’s reported default probability on individuals’ willingness to pay for annuities and term life insurances. Our experimental results suggest that individuals (sharply) reduce their willingness to pay for probabilistic life insurance products, with (strong) product-specific differences. In light of these observations, the paper then revisits the impact of these differing risk sensitivities on a life insurer’s risk situation in a simulation study based on an asset-liability model with a specific focus on a life insurer offering annuities and term life insurances. The results reveal the potentially strong impact of such product-dependent risk sensitivities on risk-reducing portfolio compositions. One main driver is the deviation between risk sensitivities depending on the respective product (annuities vs. term life).
{"title":"The Impact of Product-Dependent Policyholder Risk Sensitivities in Life Insurance: Insights from Experiments and Model-Based Simulation Analyses","authors":"Nadine Gatzert, Moritz Hanika","doi":"10.1515/apjri-2022-0051","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/apjri-2022-0051","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In contrast to previous work, this paper studies the product-dependent risk sensitivities of policyholders toward the reported safety levels of a life insurer in a long-term multi-period setting. With this aim, we first conduct two choice-based conjoint analyses using a German survey panel to investigate the effect of an insurer’s reported default probability on individuals’ willingness to pay for annuities and term life insurances. Our experimental results suggest that individuals (sharply) reduce their willingness to pay for probabilistic life insurance products, with (strong) product-specific differences. In light of these observations, the paper then revisits the impact of these differing risk sensitivities on a life insurer’s risk situation in a simulation study based on an asset-liability model with a specific focus on a life insurer offering annuities and term life insurances. The results reveal the potentially strong impact of such product-dependent risk sensitivities on risk-reducing portfolio compositions. One main driver is the deviation between risk sensitivities depending on the respective product (annuities vs. term life).","PeriodicalId":244368,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance","volume":"11 1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115482647","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
R. Pearson, Francis Daudi, Eva Kocher, Claus Musterle
Abstract This paper discusses the macroeconomic and environmental conditions for the spread of insurance in three non-Western world regions (China, Middle East and sub-Sahara Africa). Focusing on the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, it examines the patterns of economic development relevant for the growth of insurance in these regions, and compares these against standard economic models of insurance diffusion. The paper argues that the growth of insurance must be explained by more than a simple linear relationship with the growth of per capita incomes. As well as income levels, other factors affecting insurance development include urbanization, taxation, savings rates, legal compulsion to insure, state provision of social security, state-owned insurance bodies and the presence of large infrastructural projects. The second part of the paper focuses on environmental conditions in these regions that drove insurance growth, including climate and geography, demography, drought and disease, building materials and risk-reduction technologies.
{"title":"Economic and Environmental Conditions for the Diffusion of Insurance in Three Non-Euro-American Regions During the Nineteenth and Twentieth centuries","authors":"R. Pearson, Francis Daudi, Eva Kocher, Claus Musterle","doi":"10.1515/apjri-2022-0045","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/apjri-2022-0045","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper discusses the macroeconomic and environmental conditions for the spread of insurance in three non-Western world regions (China, Middle East and sub-Sahara Africa). Focusing on the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, it examines the patterns of economic development relevant for the growth of insurance in these regions, and compares these against standard economic models of insurance diffusion. The paper argues that the growth of insurance must be explained by more than a simple linear relationship with the growth of per capita incomes. As well as income levels, other factors affecting insurance development include urbanization, taxation, savings rates, legal compulsion to insure, state provision of social security, state-owned insurance bodies and the presence of large infrastructural projects. The second part of the paper focuses on environmental conditions in these regions that drove insurance growth, including climate and geography, demography, drought and disease, building materials and risk-reduction technologies.","PeriodicalId":244368,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127860422","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper investigates the main features of the Genoese insurance market between 1564 and 1572, thanks to the analysis of an unpublished tax register that preserves all insurance policies drafted in Genoa in that period. Marine insurance, intended as an archetypical risk-shifting technique, is probably the oldest financial instrument intended solely to protect against the economic consequences of commercial losses. Conventional premium insurance was developed as a tool to transfer risk during the commercial revolution of the late middle ages. This development was first led by Italian cities, among whom Genoa played a key role. However, Genoese operators involved in the insurance sectors, which belonged almost exclusively to the patrician families ruling the republic, acted as a mutual “risk-community” in a semi-closed market: a sort of “syndicate”. They shared among them the risks of maritime routes calling at the port of Genoa. Insurance was a zero-sum game, with low losses and gains that did not allow a true single-sector specialisation.
{"title":"Marine Insurance in Early Modern Genoa (1564–1571): A Risk-Shifting or Risk-Sharing Tool?","authors":"A. Iodice","doi":"10.1515/apjri-2022-0037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/apjri-2022-0037","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper investigates the main features of the Genoese insurance market between 1564 and 1572, thanks to the analysis of an unpublished tax register that preserves all insurance policies drafted in Genoa in that period. Marine insurance, intended as an archetypical risk-shifting technique, is probably the oldest financial instrument intended solely to protect against the economic consequences of commercial losses. Conventional premium insurance was developed as a tool to transfer risk during the commercial revolution of the late middle ages. This development was first led by Italian cities, among whom Genoa played a key role. However, Genoese operators involved in the insurance sectors, which belonged almost exclusively to the patrician families ruling the republic, acted as a mutual “risk-community” in a semi-closed market: a sort of “syndicate”. They shared among them the risks of maritime routes calling at the port of Genoa. Insurance was a zero-sum game, with low losses and gains that did not allow a true single-sector specialisation.","PeriodicalId":244368,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124391695","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract We examine the determinants of credit rating for the debt instruments of Indian firms. The ordered probit model analysis of firms with rating announcements by CARE, CRISIL, and ICRA, the major rating agencies in India, indicates that interest coverage, profitability, financial leverage, market size, stock beta, and volatility have a significant effect on credit ratings. We find evidence that the credit rating levels have become lower after the market regulator’s passage of Transparency and Disclosure Norms in June 2010. The results suggest that regulatory disclosure requirements influence rating agencies to be conservative in their rating standards.
{"title":"The Determinants of Credit Rating and the Effect of Regulatory Disclosure Requirements: Evidence from an Emerging Market","authors":"K. Krishnan, Sankarshan Basu","doi":"10.1515/apjri-2021-0027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/apjri-2021-0027","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We examine the determinants of credit rating for the debt instruments of Indian firms. The ordered probit model analysis of firms with rating announcements by CARE, CRISIL, and ICRA, the major rating agencies in India, indicates that interest coverage, profitability, financial leverage, market size, stock beta, and volatility have a significant effect on credit ratings. We find evidence that the credit rating levels have become lower after the market regulator’s passage of Transparency and Disclosure Norms in June 2010. The results suggest that regulatory disclosure requirements influence rating agencies to be conservative in their rating standards.","PeriodicalId":244368,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance","volume":"136 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116719306","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The use of risk maps is widespread and also mentioned in risk management standards. These visualizations display sets of risks by plotting each risk along two axes, representing the probability of occurrence and impact. Using an eye-tracking methodology, data on the cognitive processing of information from such risk maps were collected in order to examine why certain decisions are taken and what may influence their comprehension of this information. Data were collected from German and Indian participants. Those two countries are interesting for this study, as they differ greatly in several relevant domains like uncertainty avoidance or individualism. We found that individuals are generally able to perform a visual search task using a risk map but have more difficulty in making comparisons between two risks based on this type of visualization. The findings suggest that performance was related to cognitive reflection and that participants who reflected more on their decisions had a higher share of their fixations on target regions. In line with existing research, there seems to be evidence to support that cultural influences are at play when people work with risk maps, as Indians paid more attention to the context of the risk map’s target region. The influence of familiarity with working with risk maps was unclear, as there were some differences in eye movements visible but not for all variants.
{"title":"Processing of Information from Risk Maps in India and Germany: The Influence of Cognitive Reflection, Numeracy, and Experience","authors":"T. Berger, I. Hooge, Pankaj Trivedi","doi":"10.1515/apjri-2021-0022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/apjri-2021-0022","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The use of risk maps is widespread and also mentioned in risk management standards. These visualizations display sets of risks by plotting each risk along two axes, representing the probability of occurrence and impact. Using an eye-tracking methodology, data on the cognitive processing of information from such risk maps were collected in order to examine why certain decisions are taken and what may influence their comprehension of this information. Data were collected from German and Indian participants. Those two countries are interesting for this study, as they differ greatly in several relevant domains like uncertainty avoidance or individualism. We found that individuals are generally able to perform a visual search task using a risk map but have more difficulty in making comparisons between two risks based on this type of visualization. The findings suggest that performance was related to cognitive reflection and that participants who reflected more on their decisions had a higher share of their fixations on target regions. In line with existing research, there seems to be evidence to support that cultural influences are at play when people work with risk maps, as Indians paid more attention to the context of the risk map’s target region. The influence of familiarity with working with risk maps was unclear, as there were some differences in eye movements visible but not for all variants.","PeriodicalId":244368,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance","volume":"101 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115223794","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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