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A Survey on the Evolution of Keynes' Economic Thought 凯恩斯经济思想演变述评
Pub Date : 2021-08-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3903272
Barkin Cihanli
There has been on-going controversy about the evolution of John Maynard Keynes’ thought on economic theory among economists of different schools of thought. Even though Keynes have always been considered a revolutionary in economic thought in relation with his ideas in the General Theory, Keynes did not always think about the economic thought the way he did in the General Theory. Some economists have argued that Keynes’ training in economics in Cambridge had made him subscribe to the Classical economics in his earlier years. Some has furthered this argument that Keynes’ Treatise on Money (1930) contained elements of the Classical economic theory, whereas others have opposed that Keynes have dropped the Classical economic theory by the time he wrote the Treatise and seemed to be in the process of developing what later became known as the Keynesian economics. However, there remain fundamental questions to be answered : What kind of economics training did Keynes receive in his earlier years as a student? To what extent had Keynes’ thought gone through a dramatic change in the successive years? How different was his economic thought in the Treatise on Money (1930)? How different was the Treatise from the General Theory (1936)? This essay surveys that Keynes started to acknowledge the shortcomings of the Classical economic theory by the time he wrote the Treatise on Money. Later on, when he gave the inaugural Finlay lecture at UCD titled National Self-Sufficiency(1933), there were even more distinct evidence in favor of his deviation from the Classical Theory. As a result, the goal of this paper is to argue that the Treatise and the National Self-Sufficiency pieces were the two primary sources that demonstrate the evolutionary path for the production of the General Theory. This is a significant issue to address, because this argument falls in line with different interpretations of the origins of the Keynesian economics, specifically the Post Keynesian line of thought which will be analyzed in detail in this paper.
关于凯恩斯经济理论思想的演变,不同学派的经济学家一直存在争议。尽管凯恩斯在《通论》中的观点一直被认为是经济思想的革命者,但凯恩斯并不总是像他在《通论》中那样思考经济思想。一些经济学家认为,凯恩斯早年在剑桥接受的经济学训练使他信奉古典经济学。一些人进一步论证凯恩斯的《货币论》(1930)包含了古典经济理论的元素,而另一些人则反对凯恩斯在写《货币论》的时候已经放弃了古典经济理论,似乎正在发展后来被称为凯恩斯主义经济学的理论。然而,仍然有一些基本的问题需要回答:凯恩斯在他早期的学生时代接受了什么样的经济学训练?凯恩斯的思想在多大程度上经历了连续几年的戏剧性变化?他在《货币论》(1930)中的经济思想有何不同?《人性论》与《通论》(1936)有何不同?本文考察了凯恩斯在撰写《货币论》时开始承认古典经济理论的缺陷。后来,当他在都柏林大学发表题为《国家自给自足》(1933)的芬莱讲座时,有更明显的证据表明他偏离了古典理论。因此,本文的目的是论证《人性论》和《国家自给自足》是论证《通论》产生的演化路径的两个主要来源。这是一个需要解决的重要问题,因为这个论点符合对凯恩斯主义经济学起源的不同解释,特别是后凯恩斯主义的思想路线,这将在本文中进行详细分析。
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引用次数: 0
The Relationship Between Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Growth: Does Doing Business Environment Matter? 资本账户自由化与经济增长的关系:营商环境重要吗?
Pub Date : 2021-06-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3918806
Zahra Dehghan Shabani, R. Shahnazi
Capital is one of the most critical components affecting economic growth. In this way, capital account liberalization is effective on economic growth. Theoretical foundations and empirical evidence showed various effects of capital account liberalization on economic growth for reasons such as differences in the institutional structure. This study investigates the threshold effect of doing business on the impact of capital account liberalization on economic growth using the Panel threshold model in 138 countries and three income groups from 2005 to 2018. The results showed that capital account liberalization on the economic growth is negative when doing business is less than the threshold level. Still, this relationship is positive after the threshold level of doing business in 138 countries, low-income and middle-income groups. Also, the effect of capital account liberalization on economic growth is positive in high-income groups when the doing business is less or upper than a threshold level.
资本是影响经济增长的最关键因素之一。这样,资本账户自由化对经济增长是有效的。理论基础和实证证据表明,由于制度结构差异等原因,资本账户自由化对经济增长的影响是多种多样的。本研究利用面板阈值模型,从2005年到2018年,在138个国家和三个收入群体中调查了开展业务对资本账户自由化对经济增长影响的阈值效应。结果表明,在营商门槛水平低于时,资本账户自由化对经济增长的影响为负。尽管如此,在138个国家、低收入和中等收入群体开展业务的门槛水平之后,这种关系仍然是正的。此外,资本账户自由化对经济增长的影响在高收入群体中是积极的,当经商低于或高于阈值水平时。
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引用次数: 1
Women Workers in the Gig Economy in India : An Exploratory Study 印度零工经济中的女工:一项探索性研究
Pub Date : 2021-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3944205
Institute of Economic Affairs Submitter, Anwesha Ghosh
While post-Fordism and neo-liberalism changed the way labour was viewed, technology and wide spread digitization has built upon the same principles, giving way to a new form of work – the Gig Economy. Over the last decade, ‘on-demand’ work guided by app-based platforms such as Uber, Ola, Urban Company, Zomato, etc. have become fairly common in urban India. These platforms have built upon the existing large informal economy fuelled by growing digitization and affordability of gadgets such as smartphones. Gig economy thrives upon the idea of ‘flexibility’, allowing people to work as ‘independent contractors’ who have the ‘choice’ of working when they want to, how they want to and where they want to.
虽然后福特主义和新自由主义改变了人们对劳动的看法,但技术和广泛传播的数字化建立在同样的原则之上,让位于一种新的工作形式——零工经济。在过去的十年里,由Uber、Ola、Urban Company、Zomato等基于应用程序的平台指导的“按需”工作在印度城市变得相当普遍。这些平台是建立在现有的大型非正规经济基础上的,这些经济是由日益增长的数字化和智能手机等电子产品的可负担性推动的。零工经济在“灵活性”的理念下蓬勃发展,允许人们作为“独立承包商”工作,他们可以“选择”自己想要的工作时间、工作方式和工作地点。
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引用次数: 4
Beyond Property or Beyond Piketty? 超越财产还是超越皮凯蒂?
Pub Date : 2020-11-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3738391
S. Reddy
Capital and Ideology represents a significant further statement from Thomas Piketty. The arguments made by the "New Piketty" are largely compatible with those of his previous Capital in the Twenty-First Century, but reflect broadening of scope and deepening of causal analysis, most markedly through the adoption of a world historical perspective. The result is a fuller offering for understanding inequality's pattern in the world, why it exists and how we can best respond to it. The book presents a wide range of arguments, which do not on first glance appear unified. This review essay distills these into six propositions, describes and evaluates each in turn, and identifies some threads that link them. In the process, it provides a critical assessment of Capital and Ideology.
《资本论与意识形态》代表了托马斯·皮凯蒂进一步的重要陈述。“新皮凯蒂”的论点与他之前的《21世纪资本论》基本一致,但反映了范围的扩大和因果分析的深化,最明显的是采用了世界历史的视角。其结果是为理解世界上不平等的模式、它存在的原因以及我们如何最好地应对它提供了更全面的建议。这本书提出了各种各样的论点,乍一看似乎并不统一。这篇评论文章将这些提炼成六个命题,依次描述和评估每个命题,并确定一些联系它们的线索。在这个过程中,它对《资本论》和《意识形态》进行了批判性的评估。
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引用次数: 1
A Methodological Critique of New Keynesian and DSGE Models 对新凯恩斯主义和DSGE模型的方法论批判
Pub Date : 2020-06-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3616896
Narciso Túñez Area
New Keynesian and DSGE models fail to portray Keynes’ insights in many respects. The intention of this paper is to offer a critical review of the so-called New Consensus Macroeconomics related to the understanding of the theoretical underpinning in The General Theory in which money plays a crucial role. The nature of money as having zero elasticity of substitution invalidates the applicability of Walras’ Law in disequilibrium and renders the Keynesian unemployment equilibrium hypothesis a theoretical coherent possibility.
新凯恩斯主义和DSGE模型在许多方面都未能描绘出凯恩斯的见解。本文的目的是对所谓的新共识宏观经济学进行批判性的回顾,这与对《通论》中货币起着至关重要作用的理论基础的理解有关。货币具有零替代弹性的本质使瓦尔拉斯定律在非均衡中的适用性失效,并使凯恩斯失业均衡假说在理论上成为连贯的可能性。
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引用次数: 0
Capital Market Liberalization and Equity Market Interdependence 资本市场自由化与股权市场相互依存
Pub Date : 2020-05-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3612457
Renée Fry-McKibbin, Ziyu Yan
This paper uses tests drawn from the literature on financial market contagion measured by changes in higher-order comoments to establish the patterns in the interdependence between equity markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen with Hong Kong as mainland China liberalized their capital market. On the announcement of the opening of the Shanghai market correlations rise, but subside by the launch. Following the launch changes in coskewness, cokurtosis and covolatility emerge. The liberalization process is complete by mid-September 2016.
本文利用高阶评论变化衡量金融市场传染的文献中的检验,建立了中国内地资本市场开放后沪深两地股市与香港股市相互依赖的模式。沪市开盘消息公布后相关性上升,但因开盘而回落。随发射而来的是协偏性、协峰度和协挥发性的变化。自由化进程将于2016年9月中旬完成。
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引用次数: 0
A Comment the ‘New’ History of American Capitalism 评美国资本主义的“新”史
Pub Date : 2019-08-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3438828
Phillip W. Magness
This essay reviews the "New History of Capitalism" (NHC) literature with specific attention to its claims about the relationship between capitalism and slavery. While others have critiqued severe deficiencies in the empirical dimensions of this literature, I focus upon the shortcomings in its conceptualization of "capitalism." In addition to being plagued by definitional imprecision surrounding its use of the term that causes NHC scholars to conflate the slave system with laissez-faire economic doctrines, this literature generally neglects the close historical association between classical economists and abolitionism. The ensuing confusion over the intellectual history of capitalism and its relationship to the emergence of economics as a social science leads several practitioners in the NHC literature to unwittingly adopt a modern iteration of the "King Cotton" economic thesis that was advanced by radical pro-slavery "fire eaters" on the eve of the American Civil War. While the two service opposite objectives with regards to slavery itself, they are shown to adopt eerily similar diagnoses of slavery's economic position in the world. As with its Confederate-era precursor, the NHC variant of this thesis errs in its attempt to reduce the complexities of an economy to a simplistic causal relationship based upon a single slave-produced crop.
本文回顾了“资本主义新历史”(NHC)文献,特别关注其关于资本主义与奴隶制之间关系的主张。虽然其他人批评了这篇文献在经验维度上的严重缺陷,但我关注的是它在“资本主义”概念化方面的缺陷。除了被定义上的不精确所困扰,导致NHC学者将奴隶制度与自由放任的经济学说混为一谈,这些文献通常忽略了古典经济学家与废奴主义之间的密切历史联系。随之而来的对资本主义思想史及其与经济学作为一门社会科学出现的关系的混淆,导致NHC文献中的一些从业者无意中采用了“棉花王”经济理论的现代版本,该理论是由激进的支持奴隶制的“吞火者”在美国内战前夕提出的。虽然两者在奴隶制本身方面的目标截然相反,但它们对奴隶制在世界上的经济地位的诊断却惊人地相似。与它在邦联时期的前身一样,这一理论的NHC变体错误地试图将经济的复杂性简化为基于单一奴隶生产的作物的简单因果关系。
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引用次数: 3
The Brazilian Connection in Milton Friedman's 1967 Presidential Address and 1976 Nobel Lecture 米尔顿·弗里德曼1967年总统演讲和1976年诺贝尔奖演讲中的巴西关系
Pub Date : 2019-04-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3214899
M. Boianovsky
The paper investigates the role played by Friedman’s interpretation of the Brazilian inflation in his 1967 formulation of the natural rate hypothesis and in his 1976 discussion of indexation and other institutional arrangements in the face of chronic inflation. It is argued that, as an empirical economist and in the absence of evidence from industrialized countries, Friedman found in the Brazilian 1964-66 stabilization episode significant support for his argument about inflation acceleration and a shifting Phillips curve. Friedman’s interest in the Brazilian inflationary economy prompted him to visit the country in 1973. The context and implications of Friedman’s Brazilian travel are also tackled in the paper.
本文研究了弗里德曼对巴西通货膨胀的解释在他1967年提出的自然利率假说中所起的作用,以及他1976年在面对长期通货膨胀时对指数化和其他制度安排的讨论中所起的作用。有人认为,作为一名经验经济学家,在缺乏工业化国家证据的情况下,弗里德曼在巴西1964-66年的稳定时期发现了他关于通货膨胀加速和菲利普斯曲线移动的论点的重要支持。弗里德曼对巴西通货膨胀经济的兴趣促使他在1973年访问了巴西。弗里德曼的巴西之旅的背景和影响也在论文中处理。
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引用次数: 0
Some International Evidence for Keynesian Economics Without the Phillips Curve 没有菲利普斯曲线的凯恩斯主义经济学的一些国际证据
Pub Date : 2019-04-01 DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2019.032
R. Farmer, Giovanni Nicolò
Farmer and NicolA² (2018) show that the Farmer Monetary (FM)-Model outperforms the three-equation New-Keynesian (NK)-model in post -war U.S. data. In this paper, we compare the marginal data density of the FM-model with marginal data densities for determinate and indeterminate versions of the NK-model for three separate samples using U.S., U.K. and Canadian data. We estimate versions of both models that restrict the parameters of the private sector equations to be the same for all three countries. Our preferred specification is the constrained version of the FM-model which has a marginal data density that is more than 40 log points higher than the NK alternative. Our findings also demonstrate that cross-country macroeconomic differences are well explained by the different shocks that hit each economy and by differences in the ways in which national central banks reacted to those shocks.
Farmer and NicolA²(2018)表明,农民货币(FM)模型在战后美国数据中优于三方程新凯恩斯(NK)模型。在本文中,我们使用美国、英国和加拿大的数据,比较了fm模型的边缘数据密度与nk模型的确定和不确定版本的边缘数据密度。我们估计这两个限制私营部门方程参数的模型版本对所有三个国家都是相同的。我们首选的规范是fm模型的约束版本,它的边际数据密度比NK替代方案高40多个对数点。我们的研究结果还表明,各国宏观经济差异可以很好地解释为每个经济体遭受的不同冲击,以及各国央行应对这些冲击的方式不同。
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引用次数: 6
Economics’ Wisdom Deficit and How to Reduce It 经济学的智慧赤字及如何减少
Pub Date : 2018-11-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3283274
John F. Tomer
As is well understood, the values inherent in the dominant neoclassical economic paradigm are self-interest and optimization. These are the values that guide individuals and policymakers in advanced capitalist economies in their economic decision making. As a consequence, the economics discipline, arguably, is insufficiently oriented to helping people and organizations make wise choices, choices about what is really and truly in people’s best interests. In other words, there is strong reason to believe that economics has a wisdom deficit. This paper draws on great philosophers such as Aristotle to explain what wisdom is and why, although economics is concerned with the normative aspect of decision making, economics has too infrequently been used to help people or their societies make wise decisions. This paper is also concerned with how a society’s economic decision-making processes can be improved in order that these processes incorporate a much greater dose of wisdom. One relevant question here is: can we learn with the help of philosophers, psychologists, and organization researchers how to make economic decisions that apply the practical wisdom that Aristotle advocated? This paper’s overall purpose is first to point the way toward greater decision-making wisdom, and second to propose one method for improving the wisdom of important economic related decision making. Hopefully, this paper will serve to put the issue of decision-making wisdom higher on the agenda of economists and, as a consequence, lead to wiser decisions in the economic sphere, thereby reducing the wisdom deficit.
众所周知,占主导地位的新古典经济学范式所固有的价值观是自利和优化。这些价值观指导着发达资本主义经济体的个人和决策者进行经济决策。因此,经济学学科在帮助人们和组织做出明智的选择,做出真正符合人们最佳利益的选择方面,缺乏足够的导向。换句话说,我们有充分的理由相信经济学存在智慧赤字。本文借鉴了亚里士多德等伟大的哲学家来解释智慧是什么以及为什么,尽管经济学关注的是决策的规范方面,但经济学很少被用来帮助人们或他们的社会做出明智的决定。本文还关注如何改进一个社会的经济决策过程,以使这些过程包含更多的智慧。一个相关的问题是:我们能否在哲学家、心理学家和组织研究人员的帮助下,学习如何运用亚里士多德所倡导的实践智慧做出经济决策?本文的总体目的是首先指出通往更大决策智慧的道路,其次提出一种提高重要经济相关决策智慧的方法。希望本文将有助于把决策智慧问题提上经济学家的议事日程,从而在经济领域做出更明智的决策,从而减少智慧赤字。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
PSN: Liberal Market Economies (Topic)
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