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On the Inefficiency of Non-Competes in Low-Wage Labor Markets 论低工资劳动力市场的非竞争行为的无效率
Pub Date : 2021-01-18 DOI: 10.24148/wp2022-01
Tristan Potter, B. Hobijn, André Kurmann
We study the efficiency of non-compete agreements (NCAs) in an equilibrium model of labor turnover. The model is consistent with empirical studies showing that NCAs reduce turnover, average wages, and wage dispersion for low-wage workers. But the model also predicts that NCAs, by reducing turnover, raise recruitment and employment. We show that optimal NCA policy: (i) is characterized by a Hosios like condition that balances the benefits of higher employment against the costs of inefficient congestion and poaching; (ii) depends critically on the minimum wage, such that enforcing NCAs can be efficient with a sufficiently high minimum wage; and (iii) alone cannot always achieve efficiency, also true of a minimum wage-yet with both instruments efficiency is always attainable. To guide policy makers, we derive a sufficient statistic in the form of an easily computed employment threshold above which NCAs are necessarily inefficiently restrictive, and show that employment levels in current low-wage U.S. labor markets are typically above this threshold. Finally, we calibrate the model to show that Oregon's 2008 ban of NCAs for low-wage workers increased welfare, albeit modestly (by roughly 0.1%), and that if policy makers had also raised the minimum wage to its optimal level (a 30% increase), welfare would have increased more substantially-by over 1%.
本文在劳动力流动的均衡模型中研究了竞业禁止协议的效率。该模型与实证研究结果一致,表明NCAs降低了低薪工人的流动率、平均工资和工资分散。但该模型还预测,NCAs通过减少人员流动率,增加了招聘和就业。我们证明了最优的NCA政策:(i)具有一个类似Hosios的条件,它平衡了更高就业的收益与低效拥堵和偷猎的成本;(ii)严重依赖于最低工资,以便在最低工资足够高的情况下有效执行国家自愿行动协定;单靠(iii)并不能总是达到效率,最低工资也是如此——然而,有了这两种工具,效率总是可以实现的。为了指导政策制定者,我们以一个容易计算的就业门槛的形式得出了一个充分的统计数据,超过这个门槛,nca必然是无效的限制,并表明当前低工资的美国劳动力市场的就业水平通常高于这个门槛。最后,我们对模型进行了校正,以表明俄勒冈州2008年对低工资工人的nca禁令增加了福利,尽管幅度不大(大约0.1%),如果政策制定者也将最低工资提高到最佳水平(提高30%),福利将得到更大幅度的提高——超过1%。
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引用次数: 2
The Local Economic Impact of Natural Disasters 自然灾害对地方经济的影响
Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.24148/wp2020-34
Brigitte Roth Tran
We use county panel data to study the dynamic responses of local economies after natural disasters in the U.S. Specifically, we estimate disaster impulse response functions for personal income per capita and a broad range of other economic outcomes, using a panel version of the local projections estimator. In contrast to some recent cross-country studies, we find that disasters increase total and per capita personal income over the longer-run (as of 8 years out). The effect is driven initially largely by a temporary employment boost and in the longer run by an increase in average weekly wages. We then assess the heterogeneity of disaster impacts across several dimensions. We find that the longer-run increase in income per capita rises with disaster severity, as measured by monetary damages. Hurricanes, tornados, and fires yield longer run increases in income, while floods do not. The longer run increase in income tends to rise with recent disaster experience and is absent for counties with no recent experience. Finally, a spatial spillover analysis suggests that, while over the short- to medium-run, the regional and local impacts of disasters on personal income are similar, over the longer run the net regional effect may be negative, in contrast to the positive local effect.
我们使用县面板数据来研究美国自然灾害后当地经济的动态响应。具体来说,我们使用当地预测估计器的面板版本来估计个人人均收入和广泛的其他经济结果的灾害脉冲响应函数。与最近的一些跨国研究相反,我们发现灾害在较长时间内(截至8年后)增加了总收入和人均个人收入。这种影响最初主要是由临时就业的增加推动的,从长远来看,是由平均周薪的增加推动的。然后,我们在几个维度上评估灾害影响的异质性。我们发现,以货币损失衡量,人均收入的长期增长随着灾害严重程度的增加而增加。飓风、龙卷风和火灾会带来长期的收入增长,而洪水则不会。较长期的收入增长往往随着最近的灾害经历而增加,而对于没有最近的灾害经历的县则不存在这种增长。最后,空间溢出分析表明,虽然灾害对个人收入的短期和中期影响是相似的,但从长期来看,净区域效应可能是负面的,而不是正面的局部效应。
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引用次数: 27
Competitive Effects of IPOS: Evidence from Chinese Listing Suspensions ipo的竞争效应:来自中国上市公司停牌的证据
Pub Date : 2020-09-23 DOI: 10.24148/WP2020-30
Frank Packer, M. Spiegel
Theory suggests that initial public offerings (IPOs) can adversely impact listed firms, both directly by increasing intra-industry competition, and in-directly by completing related asset market spaces. However, the endogeneity of individual IPO activity hinders testing these channels. This paper examines listing suspensions in China in a panel specification that accounts for macroeconomic and financial conditions, isolating the firm-level IPO impact. We measure the competi-tive impact of listing suspensions through the value share of postponed firms in the IPO queue in their industry, and asset-space competition by firms’ historical covariance with a synthetic portfolio of listed firms with the IPO queue industry mix at the time of suspension. Our results support the predicted IPO effects through both channels. We also document heterogeneity in IPO effects. Stronger firms–measured through a variety of proxies–benefit less from the suspension news. These results are robust to a battery of sensitivity tests
理论认为,首次公开发行(ipo)会对上市公司产生负面影响,直接影响是通过增加行业内竞争,间接影响是通过填补相关资产市场空间。然而,个别IPO活动的内生性阻碍了对这些渠道的测试。本文在考虑宏观经济和金融条件的面板规范中考察了中国的上市暂停,孤立了公司层面的IPO影响。我们通过推迟上市公司在其行业中的IPO队列中的价值份额来衡量上市暂停的竞争影响,并通过公司与暂停时具有IPO队列行业组合的上市公司的历史协方差来衡量资产空间竞争。我们的研究结果通过这两个渠道支持了预测的IPO效应。我们还记录了IPO效应的异质性。实力较强的公司——通过各种代理来衡量——从停牌消息中获益较少。这些结果在一系列灵敏度测试中是可靠的
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引用次数: 1
A Simple Framework to Monitor Inflation 监测通货膨胀的简单框架
Pub Date : 2020-08-19 DOI: 10.24148/wp2020-29
A. Shapiro
This paper proposes a simple framework to help monitor and understand movements in PCE inflation in real time. The approach is to decompose inflation using simple categorical-level regressions or systems of equations. The estimates are then used to group categories into components of PCE inflation. I review some applications of the methodology, and show how it can help explain inflation dynamics over recent episodes. The methodology shows that inflation remained low in the mid-2010s primarily because of factors unrelated to aggregate economic conditions. I also apply the methodology to the Covid-19 pandemic. The decomposition reveals that a majority of the drop in core PCE inflation after the onset of the pandemic was attributable to an initial strong decline in consumer demand, which more recently has rebounded somewhat.
本文提出了一个简单的框架,以帮助实时监测和理解PCE通胀的变动。方法是用简单的分类回归或方程组来分解通货膨胀。然后,这些估计值被用于将类别划分为个人消费支出通胀的组成部分。我回顾了该方法的一些应用,并展示了它如何帮助解释最近几次的通货膨胀动态。该方法显示,通胀在2010年代中期保持低位,主要原因是与总体经济状况无关的因素。我还将该方法应用于2019冠状病毒病大流行。分解结果显示,大流行爆发后核心个人消费支出通胀下降的主要原因是消费者需求最初强劲下降,最近有所反弹。
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引用次数: 12
The Credit Line Channel 信用额度渠道
Pub Date : 2020-07-31 DOI: 10.24148/wp2020-26
Daniel L. Greenwald, John Krainer, Pascal Paul
Aggregate bank lending to firms expands following adverse macroeconomic shocks, such as the outbreak of COVID-19 or a monetary policy tightening, at odds with canonical models. Using loan-level supervisory data, we show that these dynamics are driven by draws on credit lines by large firms. Banks that experience larger drawdowns restrict term lending more — an externality onto smaller firms. Using a structural model, we show that credit lines are necessary to reproduce the flow of credit toward less constrained firms after adverse shocks. While credit lines increase total credit growth, their redistributive effects exacerbate the fall in investment.
在2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)爆发或货币政策收紧等不利的宏观经济冲击之后,银行对企业的贷款总额会扩大,这与规范模型不符。利用贷款层面的监管数据,我们表明这些动态是由大公司对信贷额度的提取驱动的。遭遇较大回笼的银行对定期贷款的限制更多——这是对小型企业的外部性。使用结构模型,我们表明信贷额度是必要的,以重现信贷流向较少约束的企业后的不利冲击。虽然信贷额度增加了总信贷增长,但它们的再分配效应加剧了投资的下降。
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引用次数: 80
Weather, Social Distancing, and the Spread ofCOVID-19 天气、社交距离和covid -19的传播
Pub Date : 2020-07-02 DOI: 10.1101/2020.07.23.20160911
Daniel J. Wilson
Using high-frequency panel data for U.S. counties, I estimate the full dynamic response of COVID-19 cases and deaths to exogenous movements in mobility and weather. I find several important results. First, holding mobility fixed, temperature is found to have a negative and significant effect on COVID-19 cases from 1 to 8 weeks ahead and on deaths from 2 to 8 weeks ahead. Second, holding weather fixed, mobility is found to have a large positive effect on subsequent growth in COVID-19 cases and deaths. The impact on cases becomes significant 3 to 4 weeks ahead and continues through 8 to 10 weeks ahead. The impact on deaths becomes significant around 4 weeks ahead and persists for at least 10 weeks. Third, I find that the deleterious effects of mobility on COVID-19 outcomes are far greater when the local virus transmission rate is above one -- evidence supportive of public health policies aiming to reduce mobility specifically in places experiencing high transmission rates while relaxing restrictions elsewhere. Fourth, I find that the dynamic effects of mobility on cases are generally similar across counties, but the effects on deaths are higher for counties with older populations and, surprisingly, counties with lower black or hispanic population shares. Lastly, I find that while the marginal impact of mobility changes has been stable over recent weeks for cases, it has come down for deaths.
使用美国各县的高频面板数据,我估计了COVID-19病例和死亡对流动性和天气外源性运动的全面动态响应。我发现了几个重要的结果。首先,研究发现,在流动性固定的情况下,温度对未来1至8周的COVID-19病例和未来2至8周的死亡有显著的负面影响。其次,在天气固定的情况下,流动性被发现对COVID-19病例和死亡人数的后续增长有很大的积极影响。对病例的影响在未来3至4周内变得显著,并持续到未来8至10周。对死亡的影响在未来4周左右变得显著,并持续至少10周。第三,我发现,当当地的病毒传播率高于1时,流动性对COVID-19结果的有害影响要大得多,这是支持公共卫生政策的证据,这些政策旨在减少流动性,特别是在传播率高的地方,同时放松其他地方的限制。第四,我发现,人口流动对病例的动态影响在各个县大致相似,但对死亡率的影响在人口老龄化的县更高,令人惊讶的是,在黑人或西班牙裔人口比例较低的县。最后,我发现,虽然最近几周流动性变化对病例的边际影响一直很稳定,但对死亡的影响却有所下降。
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引用次数: 23
Average Is Good Enough: Average-Inflation Targeting and the ELB 平均就够了:平均通胀目标制和ELB
Pub Date : 2020-06-24 DOI: 10.24148/wp2020-21
R. Amano, S. Gnocchi, S. Leduc, Joël Wagner
The Great Recession and current pandemic have focused attention on the constraint on nominal interest rates from the effective lower bound. This has renewed interest in monetary policies that embed makeup strategies, such as price-level or average-inflation targeting. This paper examines the properties of average-inflation targeting in a two-agent New Keynesian (TANK) model in which a fraction of firms have adaptive expectations. We examine the optimal degree of history dependence under average-inflation targeting and find it to be relatively short for business cycle shocks of standard magnitude and duration. In this case, we show that the properties of the economy are quantitatively similar to those under a price-level target.
大衰退和当前的大流行使人们的注意力集中在名义利率受到有效下限的约束上。这重新引起了人们对嵌入弥补策略的货币政策的兴趣,比如价格水平或平均通胀目标。本文研究了一个双主体新凯恩斯(TANK)模型中平均通胀目标制的性质,在该模型中,一小部分企业具有适应性预期。我们研究了平均通胀目标制下的最优历史依赖程度,发现对于标准幅度和持续时间的商业周期冲击而言,历史依赖程度相对较短。在这种情况下,我们表明经济的属性在数量上与价格水平目标下的属性相似。
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引用次数: 18
Does Disappointing European Productivity Growth Reflect a Slowing Trend? Weighing the Evidence and Assessing the Future 令人失望的欧洲生产率增长是否反映出放缓趋势?权衡证据和评估未来
Pub Date : 2020-06-05 DOI: 10.24148/wp2020-22
John G. Fernald, R. Inklaar
In the years since the Great Recession, many observers have highlighted the slow pace of labor and total factor productivity (TFP) growth in advanced economies. This paper focuses on the European experience, where we highlight that trend TFP growth was already low in the runup to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). This suggests that it is important to consider factors other than just the deep crisis itself or policy changes since the crisis. After the mid-1990s, European economies stopped converging, or even began diverging, from the U.S. level of TFP. That said, in contrast to the United States, there is some macroeconomic evidence for some northern European countries that the GFC had a further adverse impact on TFP growth. Still, the challenges for economic policy look surprisingly similar to the ones discussed prior to the Great Recession, even if the policy implications seem less clear.
大衰退以来的几年里,许多观察家都强调了发达经济体劳动力和全要素生产率(TFP)增长的缓慢步伐。本文主要关注欧洲的经验,在欧洲,我们强调在全球金融危机(GFC)爆发之前,TFP增长趋势已经很低。这表明,除了深度危机本身或危机以来的政策变化之外,重要的是要考虑其他因素。上世纪90年代中期以后,欧洲经济体的全要素生产率(TFP)不再与美国趋同,甚至开始分化。也就是说,与美国相反,一些北欧国家的宏观经济证据表明,全球金融危机对全要素生产率增长产生了进一步的不利影响。尽管如此,经济政策面临的挑战看起来与大衰退之前讨论过的挑战惊人地相似,尽管政策含义似乎不那么明确。
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引用次数: 12
Capital Controls and Income Inequality 资本管制与收入不平等
Pub Date : 2020-04-14 DOI: 10.24148/wp2020-14
Zheng Liu, M. Spiegel, Jingyi Zhang
We examine the distributional implications of capital account policy in a small open economy model with heterogeneous agents and financial frictions. Households save through deposits in both domestic and foreign banks. Entrepreneurs finance investment with borrowed funds from domestic banks and foreign investors. Domestic banks engage in costly intermediation of deposits from households and loans to entrepreneurs. Government capital account policy consists of taxes on outflows and inflows. Given policy, a temporary decline in the world interest rate leads to a surge in inflows, benefiting entrepreneurs and hurting households. Raising inflow taxes or reducing outflow taxes mitigate this redistribution. However, in the long run liberalization of either inflows or outflows reduces inequality. The model’s short-run implications are supported by empirical evidence. Based on instrumental variable estimation with a panel of emerging market economies, we demonstrate that increases in private capital inflows raise income inequality, while increases in outflows reduce it. These effects are significant and robust to a wide variety of empirical specifications.
我们在一个具有异质性主体和金融摩擦的小型开放经济模型中研究了资本账户政策的分配含义。家庭通过在国内和外国银行的存款进行储蓄。企业家用从国内银行和外国投资者那里借来的资金进行投资。国内银行从事成本高昂的家庭存款和企业家贷款中介工作。政府资本账户政策包括对资本流出和资本流入征税。考虑到政策,全球利率的暂时下降会导致资金流入激增,这对企业家有利,对家庭不利。提高流入税或减少流出税会减缓这种再分配。然而,从长期来看,资本流入或流出的自由化都会减少不平等。该模型的短期影响得到了经验证据的支持。基于新兴市场经济体面板的工具变量估计,我们证明私人资本流入的增加加剧了收入不平等,而流出的增加则减少了收入不平等。这些影响是显著的和稳健的各种经验规范。
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引用次数: 8
Learning about Regime Change 了解政权更迭
Pub Date : 2020-04-14 DOI: 10.24148/wp2020-15
Andrew T. Foerster, C. Matthes
Total factor productivity (TFP) and investment specific technology (IST) growth both exhibit regime-switching behavior, but the regime at any given time is difficult to infer. We build a rational expectations real business cycle model where the underlying TFP and IST regimes are unobserved. We then develop a general perturbation solution algorithm for a wide class of models with unobserved regime-switching. Using our method, we show that learning about regime-switching alters the responses to regime shifts and intra-regime shocks, increases asymmetries in the responses, generates forecast error bias even with rational agents, and raises the welfare cost of fluctuations.
全要素生产率(TFP)和投资特定技术(IST)增长都表现出制度转换行为,但在任何给定时间的制度都难以推断。我们建立了一个理性预期的真实经济周期模型,其中潜在的TFP和IST制度是不可见的。然后,我们开发了一种通用的扰动解算法,用于一类具有不可观察状态切换的模型。使用我们的方法,我们表明,学习制度切换改变了对制度转移和制度内冲击的响应,增加了响应中的不对称性,即使使用理性代理也会产生预测误差偏差,并提高了波动的福利成本。
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引用次数: 8
期刊
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Working Paper Series
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