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Regulation and Resale Behavior in Online Marketplace during the COVID-19 Pandemic COVID-19大流行期间在线市场的监管和转售行为
Pub Date : 2021-10-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3936640
Yohsuke Hirose
In the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, masks and alcohol sanitizers were hoarded and resold in online markets. In Japan, restrictions were imposed on such resale. In this paper, we examine the effects of the resale regulations on the behavior of economic agents and changes in their surplus. We collected data on auctions and fixed-price sales of anhydrous ethanol in the periods before and after the resale regulation. As a result, we found that in fixed-price sales, sellers lowered their prices by nearly JPY 3,000 from the price that maximized their expected revenues due to the resale restrictions. We also found that, on average, the regulation reduced the consumer surplus and the producer surplus by about JPY 770 and JPY 1,300, respectively.
在新冠肺炎大流行初期,口罩和酒精消毒液被囤积并在网上市场转售。在日本,这种转售行为受到了限制。本文考察了转售管制对经济主体行为及其剩余变化的影响。我们收集了无水乙醇在转售管制前后的拍卖和固定价格销售数据。因此,我们发现,在固定价格销售中,由于转售限制,卖家的价格比他们预期收入最大化的价格降低了近3000日元。我们还发现,平均而言,该法规使消费者剩余和生产者剩余分别减少了约770日元和1300日元。
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引用次数: 0
Involuntary job loss: welfare effects, earnings impacts and policy options 非自愿失业:福利效应、收入影响和政策选择
Pub Date : 2021-10-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3937734
D. Hyslop, David C. Maré, Shakked Noy, Isabelle Sin
Workers who experience involuntary job loss suffer from deep and persistent negative consequences. In this paper, we first summarise the evidence on the effects of involuntary job loss on displaced workers’ wellbeing. We conclude that displacement harms workers’ mental health and economic security in the short term and negatively affects their earnings and mortality risk in the long term. We then extrapolate the estimates of Hyslop and Townsend (2017) to estimate the economy-wide net-present value of wages lost as a result of displacement by the workers displaced in New Zealand in a representative year. Our estimates suggest that this value is likely between $3.3 billion (in a year of economic upswing) and $15.4 billion (in a year of very severe economic downswing). Finally, we survey the policy options available for dealing with involuntary displacement. We conclude that unemployment insurance or unemployment benefits can effectively mitigate the immediate negative effects of displacement and have only small downsides. By contrast, training and job placement programs are typically ineffective, but in some circumstances might have high potential upside.
经历非自愿失业的工人会遭受深刻而持久的负面影响。在本文中,我们首先总结了非自愿失业对失业工人福利影响的证据。我们的结论是,短期内,流离失所损害了工人的心理健康和经济安全,长期来看,对他们的收入和死亡风险产生了负面影响。然后,我们推断Hyslop和Townsend(2017)的估计,以估计在具有代表性的一年中,由于新西兰流离失所的工人流离失所而导致的工资损失的全经济净现值。我们的估计表明,这一价值可能在33亿美元(在经济上升的年份)和154亿美元(在经济非常严重下滑的年份)之间。最后,我们调查了可用于处理非自愿流离失所的政策选择。我们的结论是,失业保险或失业救济金可以有效地缓解流离失所的直接负面影响,并且只有很小的负面影响。相比之下,培训和就业安置项目通常是无效的,但在某些情况下可能有很大的潜力。
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引用次数: 1
Economic Uncertainty and Corruption: Evidence From Public and Private Firms 经济不确定性与腐败:来自公私企业的证据
Pub Date : 2021-09-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3894468
Mansoor Afzali, Gonul Colak, Mengchuan Fu
Abstract We study the influence of policy uncertainty on the moral behavior of firms. When facing uncertainty, managers perceive various socioeconomic obstacles as more severe and disruptive to their business. Using data from policy uncertainty spouts in 93 countries, we document that some firms engage in norm-deviant behavior by cheating on taxes and paying more bribes. While private firms prefer to cheat on taxes, public firms choose bribery as a favorite tool to “grease the wheels” during periods of uncertainty. Strong social capital (local trust and religiosity) breaks this link between uncertainty and corruption.
摘要本文研究政策不确定性对企业道德行为的影响。当面对不确定性时,管理者认为各种社会经济障碍对他们的业务更加严重和破坏性。利用来自93个国家政策不确定性爆发的数据,我们证明了一些公司通过偷税漏税和支付更多贿赂来从事非正常行为。私营公司更喜欢偷税漏税,而上市公司则选择贿赂作为在不确定时期“润滑车轮”的最喜欢的工具。强大的社会资本(地方信任和宗教信仰)打破了这种不确定性与腐败之间的联系。
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引用次数: 12
Transient Dynamics of the COVID Lockdown on India’s Production Network 新冠肺炎疫情对印度生产网络的影响
Pub Date : 2021-09-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3916355
A. Mandel, Arpitha Y. Narasimha, K. K. Reddy, Vipin P. Veetil
In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Government of India imposed production restrictions on various sectors of the economy. Prima facia there is reason to believe that the cost of the quantity constraints may be greater than their simple sum. This is because quantity constraints percolate through the production network forcing some sectors to reduce output because of the non-availability of inputs. This paper uses an Input-Output Network Model (IO-NET Model) to study the impact of the lockdown on the Indian economy. We calibrate our IO-NET Model to the Indian economy using data on sectoral linkages. We then examine the impact of the lockdown using agent-based computational experiments. Such experiments allow us to examine the out-of-equilibrium time dynamics that emerge in response to the lockdown. The transient dynamics reveal certain counterintuitive phenomena. The first of which is that the supply of output of some sectors increases during and immediately after the lockdown. Second, recovery after the relaxation of the lockdown entails the overshooting of GDP above its normal levels. And the size of the overshooting depends on the stickiness of prices. These counterintuitive phenomena are intimately related to the network interaction between firms as buyers and sellers of intermediate inputs. The paper also measures the network effect of the lockdown across different sectors. There is sizeable heterogeneity among sectors in how their network position amplifies the quantity constraints imposed on sectors distantly related to them as buyers-sellers of intermediate inputs. Ultimately, models like our own can serve as testbeds for policy experiments, especially when the model is calibrated to granular data on buyer-seller linkages in the economy.
在2019冠状病毒病大流行之后,印度政府对各个经济部门实施了生产限制。初步看来,有理由相信数量限制的成本可能大于它们的简单总和。这是因为数量限制渗透到生产网络中,迫使一些部门由于无法获得投入而减少产出。本文采用投入产出网络模型(IO-NET模型)研究封锁对印度经济的影响。我们使用部门联系数据,根据印度经济调整我们的IO-NET模型。然后,我们使用基于代理的计算实验来检查封锁的影响。这样的实验使我们能够研究因封锁而出现的非平衡时间动力学。瞬态动力学揭示了某些违反直觉的现象。首先,一些行业的产出供应在封锁期间和封锁后立即增加。其次,放松封锁后的复苏意味着GDP超过正常水平。超调的幅度取决于价格的粘性。这些反直觉的现象与作为中间投入的买者和卖者的企业之间的网络互动密切相关。本文还衡量了封锁对不同行业的网络效应。在网络地位如何放大与它们作为中间投入品的买卖双方关系较远的部门所受到的数量限制方面,各部门之间存在相当大的异质性。最终,像我们这样的模型可以作为政策实验的试验台,特别是当模型被校准为经济中买卖双方联系的精细数据时。
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引用次数: 1
Long-Term COVID-19 Impacts and the U.S. Workforce of 2029 COVID-19的长期影响和2029年的美国劳动力
Pub Date : 2021-08-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3911455
S. Shutters
While ensuring employment opportunities is critical for global progress and stability, workers are now subject to several disruptive trends, including automation, rapid changes in technology and skill requirements, and energy transitions. Yet, these trends seem almost insignificant compared to labor impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. While much has been written about the pandemic’s short-term impacts, this study analyzes anticipated long-term impacts on the labor force of 2029 by comparing original 2029 labor projections to special COVID-adjusted projections recently published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. We find that future demand for nearly every type of labor skill and knowledge increases, while work activities shift from physical to more cognitive tasks. Of the nearly three million jobs projected to disappear by 2029 due to COVID, over 91% are among workers without a bachelor’s degree. Among workers with a degree demand shifts primarily from business-related degrees to computer and STEM degrees. We further find that the socialness of labor, which is important for both innovation and productivity, increases in many more industries than it decreases. Finally, an examination of how COVID affects trends in automation and teleworking is mixed across industries. Overall, our results suggest that future workers will need to engage more often in training and skill acquisition, requiring life-long learning and skill maintenance strategies.
虽然确保就业机会对全球进步和稳定至关重要,但工人们现在正受到几个颠覆性趋势的影响,包括自动化、技术和技能要求的快速变化以及能源转型。然而,与COVID-19大流行对劳动力的影响相比,这些趋势似乎微不足道。虽然关于大流行的短期影响已经写了很多文章,但本研究通过将2029年的原始劳动力预测与美国劳工统计局最近公布的经covid - 19调整的特别预测进行比较,分析了2029年对劳动力的预期长期影响。我们发现,未来对几乎所有类型的劳动技能和知识的需求都在增加,而工作活动则从体力活动转向更多的认知任务。到2029年,预计将有近300万个工作岗位因COVID而消失,其中91%以上是没有学士学位的工人。在拥有学位的工人中,需求主要从商业相关学位转向计算机和STEM学位。我们进一步发现,对创新和生产力都很重要的劳动的社会性在更多的行业中增加而不是减少。最后,对COVID如何影响自动化和远程工作趋势的研究在不同行业中是混合的。总体而言,我们的研究结果表明,未来的工人需要更多地参与培训和技能获取,需要终身学习和技能维护策略。
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引用次数: 0
Selling New Products with Social Learning: The Role of Online Product Reviews 用社会学习销售新产品:在线产品评论的作用
Pub Date : 2020-11-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3738411
Xuying Zhao, Z. Pang, J. Zhang
This paper studies the impact of consumers' social learning from the reviews of early adopters of a new product. We consider a two-period setting with an introduction (penetration) period followed by the product maturing period. Early buyers make purchase decisions in the introduction period under significant product valuation uncertainty and future price uncertainty and would like post reviews online to share their experiences about the product. The online product reviews posted by early adopters play an important role in shaping following consumers' product valuations and further influence their purchasing decisions. While the majority of research on social learning focuses on the impact of social learning on the consumer decisions and firm pricing in the maturing period, we find an indirect impact of electronic word-of-mouth (EWOM) on the strategic early buyers' purchase decisions and firm pricing in the introduction period. When early buyers make purchase decisions, they need to forecast the future second period price, estimate the expected utility from waiting, and compare it with the expected utility from buying early. We find that social learning increases the uncertainty in future price, which depends on reviews and therefore unknown, for early buyers in the introduction period. This price-uncertainty-increasing effect may balk early buyers from adopting in the introduction period and thus impact a firm's profit. Driven by this effect, we find that under social learning negative reviews may benefit a firm while positive reviews can also hurt a firm.
本文通过对新产品早期采用者的评价来研究消费者社会学习的影响。我们考虑一个两期的设置,一个引入(渗透)期,然后是产品成熟期。在产品估值不确定性和未来价格不确定性较大的情况下,早期购买者会在引入期做出购买决定,并愿意在网上发表评论,分享他们对产品的体验。早期采用者发布的在线产品评论在塑造后续消费者对产品的评价并进一步影响他们的购买决策方面发挥着重要作用。虽然社会学习的研究大多集中在成熟期社会学习对消费者决策和企业定价的影响上,但我们发现电子口碑对战略早期购买者的购买决策和引入期企业定价有间接影响。当早期购买者做出购买决策时,他们需要预测未来的第二期价格,估计等待的期望效用,并将其与早期购买的期望效用进行比较。我们发现,社会学习增加了未来价格的不确定性,这取决于评论,因此对于引入期的早期买家来说是未知的。这种价格不确定性增加的效应可能会阻碍早期买家在引入期采用,从而影响公司的利润。在这一效应的驱动下,我们发现在社会学习下,负面评价可能对企业有利,而正面评价也可能对企业不利。
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引用次数: 0
Doing Well By Doing Good: Improving Store Performance with Responsible Scheduling Practices at the Gap, Inc. 通过做好事来做得更好:Gap公司通过负责任的调度实践来提高商店绩效。
Pub Date : 2020-07-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3731670
S. Kesavan, S. Lambert, Joan C. Williams, Pradeep K. Pendem
We estimate the causal effects of employee-friendly scheduling practices on store financial performance at the US retailer Gap, Inc. The randomized field experiment evaluated a multi-component intervention designed to improve dimensions of work schedules – inconsistency, unpredictability, inadequacy, and lack-of-employee control – shown to undermine employee well-being and productivity. The experiment was conducted in 28 stores in the San Francisco and Chicago metropolitan areas during a 9-month period between November 2015 and August 2016. Intent-to-treat (ITT) analyses indicate that implementing employee-friendly scheduling practices increased store productivity by 5.1%, a result of increasing sales (by 3.2%) while also decreasing labor (by 1.8%). Drawing on qualitative interviews with managers and quantitative analyses of employee shift-level data, we offer evidence that the intervention improved financial performance through two mechanisms: enhanced employee effort and store execution. Given the common assumption that employee-friendly scheduling practices are costly for business because they reduce labor flexibility for employers, we give particular attention to examining how the intervention reduced labor hours. Analyses indicate that a significant proportion of the reduction can be traced to improved employee schedule adherence and the subsequent decrease in downstream “paper cuts” to the labor budget that occurs as one employee’s tardiness cascades throughout the day and to coworkers. Our findings thus provide compelling evidence that schedule adherence is not exogenous to managers’ scheduling behavior or to scheduling algorithms. Employers place profits at risk when they underestimate the business benefits of employee-friendly scheduling practices.
我们估计了员工友好型调度实践对美国零售商Gap公司门店财务绩效的因果效应。随机现场实验评估了一种多成分干预,旨在改善工作时间表的维度——不一致、不可预测性、不充分和缺乏员工控制——这些都表明会损害员工的幸福感和生产力。该实验在2015年11月至2016年8月的9个月期间,在旧金山和芝加哥大都市地区的28家门店进行。意向治疗(ITT)分析表明,实施员工友好的调度实践使商店的生产率提高了5.1%,从而增加了销售额(3.2%),同时减少了劳动力(1.8%)。通过对管理者的定性访谈和对员工轮班数据的定量分析,我们提供了证据,证明干预通过两种机制改善了财务绩效:增强员工的努力和门店的执行。考虑到对员工友好的调度实践对企业来说代价高昂,因为它们降低了雇主的劳动灵活性,我们特别关注这种干预是如何减少劳动时间的。分析表明,减少的很大一部分可以追溯到员工对时间表的遵守程度的提高,以及随着一名员工的迟到在一天中蔓延到同事身上,随后对劳动力预算的下游“剪纸”的减少。因此,我们的研究结果提供了令人信服的证据,证明计划依从性对管理者的调度行为或调度算法不是外生的。当雇主低估了员工友好型日程安排的商业利益时,他们就会把利润置于风险之中。
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引用次数: 2
Is the Public Sector Wage Premium Real? Findings from Bangladesh 公共部门的工资溢价是真实的吗?孟加拉国的调查结果
Pub Date : 2020-01-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3884596
S. Islam, Emran Hasan
This paper argues that the study of wage gaps between public and private sector employees is sensitive to the selection of the sample. In the context of Bangladesh, Labour Force Surveys is a dominant source of employment-related data, which is disproportionately inflated with large pool of informal sector employees. Since government jobs are highly formal, the studies on wage differentials should select the groups that are as much comparable as possible on the question of formality. However, employing Oaxaca-Blinder mean decomposition method and Melly quantile counterfactual decomposition method, we find a decreasing trend in public sector wage premium as we impose more restrictions to make the sectors fitting formal. The wage differential even disappears in the entire restriction sample, and it is slightly biased towards private in the top quantile only. Therefore, we can conclude that the superiority of the public sector job does not come from wage compensation but non-monetary issues, with a strong implication for labour markets in Bangladesh.
本文认为,公私部门雇员工资差距的研究对样本的选择很敏感。在孟加拉国,劳动力调查是与就业有关的数据的主要来源,这些数据因大量非正规部门雇员而不成比例地膨胀。由于政府工作是高度正式的,关于工资差别的研究应选择在正式问题上尽可能具有可比性的群体。然而,采用Oaxaca-Blinder均值分解方法和melanie分位数反事实分解方法,我们发现,随着我们为使部门拟合正式而施加更多限制,公共部门工资溢价呈下降趋势。工资差异甚至在整个限制样本中消失,并且仅在前分位数中略微偏向私人。因此,我们可以得出结论,公共部门工作的优势不是来自工资补偿,而是来自非货币问题,这对孟加拉国的劳动力市场有很强的影响。
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引用次数: 1
Indirect Transactions at a Global Scale 全球范围的间接交易
Pub Date : 2019-07-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3741607
Christopher B. Yenkey
This paper advances theory on arm’s length transactions by considering their causes and consequences in a novel context- global trade transactions. The study is made possible by merging comprehensive bilateral trade data from the United Nations (UNCOMTRADE) with a propriety dataset capturing bilateral payments provided by the Society of Worldwide Interbank Financial Transfers (SWIFT). The resulting dataset reveals that more than two-thirds of bilateral trade relationships are structured indirectly- African countries export their products to a trade partner, but that importing partner does not pay the exporter directly. My analysis reveals the attributes of country-level transaction relationships that use this indirect payment structure, what the performance implications are for indirect payments ties, and why countries that initially use indirect payments ties subsequently switch to direct payments (the triad closes) or vice versa. Results show that indirect payments are more likely when countries have higher gravity-based distances, dissimilar administrative institutions, weaker governance institutions, and trade in more substitutable goods. Indirect transactions, however, are associated with lower stability and lower growth in all these relationships with the exception of those with weaker governance institutions, where intermediaries are a benefit to the transacting parties. Overall, the evidence strongly suggests that direct, embedded transactions at a global level are associated with similar positive benefits that scholars have found at local, inter-firm levels. A concluding discussion highlights five important questions for future research to consider than cannot be answered by this study.
本文通过在全球贸易交易这一新的背景下考察公平交易的前因后果,提出了公平交易理论。这项研究是通过将联合国(UNCOMTRADE)的全面双边贸易数据与全球银行间金融转移协会(SWIFT)提供的双边支付数据集相结合而成为可能的。由此产生的数据集显示,超过三分之二的双边贸易关系是间接构建的——非洲国家向贸易伙伴出口产品,但进口伙伴不直接向出口商付款。我的分析揭示了使用这种间接支付结构的国家级交易关系的属性,间接支付关系的绩效含义,以及为什么最初使用间接支付关系的国家随后转向直接支付(三合一关闭)或反之亦然。结果表明,当各国的地理距离较远、行政机构不同、治理机构较弱、商品的可替代性更强时,间接支付更有可能发生。然而,在所有这些关系中,间接交易与较低的稳定性和较低的增长有关,但那些治理机构较弱的关系除外,在这些关系中,中介机构对交易各方有利。总的来说,证据有力地表明,在全球层面上的直接、嵌入式交易与学者们在地方、公司间层面上发现的类似的积极利益有关。结论性讨论强调了未来研究需要考虑的五个重要问题,而不是本研究无法回答的问题。
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引用次数: 0
Rethinking Deinstitutionalization: Exploring the Boundary Conditions for Abandoning and Decoupling Highly Diffused and Institutionalized Practices 重新思考去制度化:探索高度扩散和制度化实践的放弃与脱钩的边界条件
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3736139
Herman Aksom
Deinstitutionalization of taken-for-granted practices as a natural consequence of ever increasing entropy seems to directly contradict the major institutional thesis, namely, that over time isomorphic forces increase and, as a result, possibilities for deinstitutionalization decrease culminating in the impossibility of abandoning in highly institutionalized fields. We argue that the possibilities for deinstitutionalization have been overestimated in organizational literature and offer a revisited account of deinstitutionalization vs. institutional isomorphism and institutionalized vs. highly diffusing-but-not-institutionalized practices. A freedom for choice between alternative practices exists during the pre-institutional stage but not when the field is already institutionalized. In contrast, institutionalized, taken-for-granted practices are immutable to any sort of functional and political pressures and they use to persist even when no technical value remains thus deinstitutionalization on the basis of a functional dissatisfaction seems to be a paradox. We offer a solution to this theoretical inconsistency by distinguishing between truly institutionalized practices and currently popular practices (highly diffused but non-institutionalized). It is only the later that are subject to the norms of progress which allow abandoning and replacing of existing organizational activities. Deinstitutionalization theory is thus can be applied to popular practices that are subject to reevaluation, abandonment and replacement with new optimal practices while institutions are immutable to these norms of progress. Institutions are immutable to deinstitutionalization and the deinstitutionalization of optimal practices is subject to the logic of isomorphic convergence in organizational fields. Finally, we revisit a traditional two-stage institutional diffusion model in order to explain the possibility and likelihood of abandonment during different stages of institutionalization.
作为不断增加的熵的自然结果,被视为理所当然的实践的去制度化似乎直接与主要的制度论点相矛盾,即随着时间的推移,同构的力量增加,结果,去制度化的可能性减少,最终在高度制度化的领域中不可能放弃。我们认为,在组织文献中,去制度化的可能性被高估了,并对去制度化与制度同构、制度化与高度扩散但非制度化的实践进行了重新审视。在制度前阶段存在着选择不同实践的自由,但当该领域已经制度化时就不存在了。相比之下,制度化的、被认为理所当然的做法对任何类型的功能和政治压力都是不变的,即使在没有技术价值的情况下,它们也会持续存在,因此,基于功能不满的去制度化似乎是一个悖论。我们通过区分真正制度化的实践和当前流行的实践(高度扩散但非制度化),为这种理论不一致提供了一个解决方案。只有后者才受到允许放弃和取代现有组织活动的进步规范的制约。因此,去制度化理论可以应用于重新评估、放弃和被新的最佳实践取代的流行实践,而制度对这些进步的规范是不变的。制度的去制度化是不可改变的,最优实践的去制度化服从于组织领域的同构收敛逻辑。最后,我们重新审视了传统的两阶段制度扩散模型,以解释在不同的制度阶段放弃的可能性和可能性。
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引用次数: 2
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