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The Abolition of Immigration Restrictions and the Performance of Firms and Workers: Evidence from Switzerland 取消移民限制与企业和工人的绩效:来自瑞士的证据
Pub Date : 2018-11-01 DOI: 10.3386/W25302
Andreas Beerli, J. Ruffner, Michael Siegenthaler, G. Peri
We study a reform that granted European cross-border workers free access to the Swiss labor market and had a stronger effect on regions close to the border. The greater availability of cross-border workers increased foreign employment substantially. Although many cross-border workers were highly educated, wages of highly educated natives increased. The reason is a simultaneous increase in labor demand: the reform increased the size, productivity, and innovation performance of skill-intensive incumbent firms and attracted new firms, creating opportunities for natives to pursue managerial jobs. These effects are mainly driven by firms that reported skill shortages before the reform. (JEL J15, J23, J24, J31, J61, K37)
我们研究了一项改革,该改革允许欧洲跨境工人自由进入瑞士劳动力市场,并对靠近边境的地区产生了更大的影响。跨境工人的增加大大增加了外国就业。虽然许多跨境工人受过高等教育,但受过高等教育的当地人的工资却增加了。原因是劳动力需求同时增加:改革增加了技术密集型现有企业的规模、生产率和创新绩效,并吸引了新的企业,为当地人创造了从事管理工作的机会。这些影响主要是由改革前报告技能短缺的公司造成的。(j15, j23, j24, j31, j61, k37)
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引用次数: 84
The Rise of Cloud Computing: Minding Your P’S, Q's and K's 云计算的兴起:注意你的P, Q和K
Pub Date : 2018-10-01 DOI: 10.3386/W25188
David M. Byrne, C. Corrado, Daniel E. Sichel
Cloud computing—computing done on an off-site network of resources accessed through the Internet—is revolutionizing how computing services are used. However, because cloud is so new and it largely is an intermediate input to other industries, it is difficult to track in the U.S. statistical system. Moreover, there is a paucity of systematic information on the prices of cloud services. To begin filling this gap, this paper does three things. First, we define the different segments of cloud computing and document its explosive expansion. Second, we develop new hedonic prices indexes for cloud services based on quarterly data for compute, database, and storage services offered by Amazon Web Services (AWS) from 2009 to 2016. These indexes fall rapidly over the sample period, with quickening (and double digit) rates of decline for all three products starting at the beginning of 2014. Finally, we highlight the puzzle of why investment in IT equipment in the NIPAs has been so weak while capital expenditures have exploded for IT equipment associated with cloud infrastructure. We suggest that cloud service providers are undertaking large amounts of own-account investment in IT equipment and that some of this investment may not be captured in GDP.
云计算——在通过internet访问的非站点资源网络上完成的计算——正在彻底改变计算服务的使用方式。然而,由于云计算是如此的新,而且它在很大程度上是其他行业的中间投入,因此很难在美国的统计系统中进行跟踪。此外,缺乏关于云服务价格的系统信息。为了填补这一空白,本文做了三件事。首先,我们定义了云计算的不同部分,并记录了它的爆炸性增长。其次,我们基于2009年至2016年亚马逊网络服务(AWS)提供的计算、数据库和存储服务的季度数据,开发了新的云服务享乐价格指数。这些指数在样本期内迅速下降,从2014年初开始,这三种产品的下降速度都在加快(达到两位数)。最后,我们强调了为什么nipa的IT设备投资如此薄弱,而与云基础设施相关的IT设备的资本支出却呈爆炸式增长的困惑。我们认为,云服务提供商在IT设备上进行了大量的自有账户投资,其中一些投资可能不会计入GDP。
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引用次数: 31
Moving Beyond the Valley of Death: Regulation and Venture Capital Investments in Early-Stage Biopharmaceutical Firms 超越死亡之谷:早期生物制药公司的监管和风险资本投资
Pub Date : 2018-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3309496
Yujin Kim, Chirantan Chatterjee, Matthew J. Higgins
Can regulation reduce risks associated with investing in early-stage firms? Using the passage of the European Orphan Drug Act (EU-ODA), we examine this question in the biopharmaceutical industry. We provide causal evidence that venture capitalists (VCs) are more likely to invest in early-stage firms operating in sub-fields disproportionately affected by EU-ODA. The switch to early-stage investments appears strongest among VCs that previously faced greater levels of information asymmetry. We also find that the level of syndication declined for early-stage investments and exit performance improved. We conclude discussing the implications of our findings for public policy, entrepreneurship and innovation.
监管能降低投资早期公司的风险吗?利用欧洲孤儿药法案(EU-ODA)的通过,我们研究了生物制药行业的这个问题。我们提供的因果证据表明,风险资本家(vc)更有可能投资于在受欧盟官方发展援助不成比例影响的子领域经营的早期公司。转向早期投资的趋势,在此前面临更大程度信息不对称的风投中表现得最为明显。我们还发现,早期投资的辛迪加水平有所下降,退出绩效有所改善。最后,我们讨论了我们的研究结果对公共政策、创业和创新的影响。
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引用次数: 4
Mismatch and Assimilation 错配与同化
Pub Date : 2018-08-01 DOI: 10.3386/W24960
Ping Wang, Tsz-Nga Wong, C. Yip
Income disparity across countries has been large and widening over time. We develop a tractable model where factor requirements in production technology do not necessarily match a country's factor input profile. Appropriate assimilation of frontier technologies balances such multi-dimensional factor input-technology mismatch, thus mitigating the efficiency loss. This yields a new measure for endogenous TFP, entailing a novel trade-off between a country's income level and income growth that depends critically on the assimilation ability and the factor input mismatch. Our baseline model accounts for 80%-92% of the global income variation over the past 50 years. The widening of mismatch and heterogeneity in the assimilation ability account for 41% and 20% of the global growth variation, whereas physical capital accounts for about one third with human capital largely inconsequential. In particular, about 30% of the output growth in miracle Asian economies comes from narrowing the gap arisen from mismatch, and 94% of the growth stagnation in trapped African economies due to the widening mismatch. A country may fall into a middle-income trap after a factor advantage reversal that changes the pattern of mismatch.
随着时间的推移,各国之间的收入差距一直很大,而且还在扩大。我们开发了一个易于处理的模型,其中生产技术中的要素需求不一定与一个国家的要素投入概况相匹配。对前沿技术的适当吸收平衡了这种多维要素投入与技术失配,从而减轻了效率损失。这就产生了一种衡量内生全要素生产率的新方法,需要在一个国家的收入水平和收入增长之间进行一种新的权衡,这种权衡主要取决于同化能力和要素投入不匹配。我们的基准模型解释了过去50年全球收入变化的80%-92%。同化能力的不匹配和异质性的扩大分别占全球增长变化的41%和20%,而物质资本约占三分之一,人力资本在很大程度上无关紧要。特别是,亚洲奇迹经济体约30%的产出增长来自于错配带来的差距的缩小,而陷入困境的非洲经济体94%的增长停滞来自于错配的扩大。在要素优势逆转改变了不匹配格局后,一个国家可能会陷入中等收入陷阱。
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引用次数: 5
Measuring Gentrification: Using Yelp Data to Quantify Neighborhood Change 测量中产阶级化:使用Yelp数据量化邻里变化
Pub Date : 2018-08-01 DOI: 10.3386/w24952
E. Glaeser, Hyunjin Kim, Michael Luca
We demonstrate that data from digital platforms such as Yelp have the potential to improve our understanding of gentrification, both by providing data in close to real time (i.e. nowcasting and forecasting) and by providing additional context about how the local economy is changing. Combining Yelp and Census data, we find that gentrification, as measured by changes in the educational, age, and racial composition within a ZIP code, is strongly associated with increases in the numbers of grocery stores, cafes, restaurants, and bars, with little evidence of crowd-out of other categories of businesses. We also find that changes in the local business landscape is a leading indicator of housing price changes, and that the entry of Starbucks (and coffee shops more generally) into a neighborhood predicts gentrification. Each additional Starbucks that enters a zip code is associated with a 0.5% increase in housing prices.
我们证明,来自Yelp等数字平台的数据有可能提高我们对中产阶级化的理解,既可以提供接近实时的数据(即临近预报和预测),也可以提供有关当地经济如何变化的额外背景。结合Yelp和人口普查的数据,我们发现,以教育程度、年龄和种族构成的变化来衡量的中产阶级化,与杂货店、咖啡馆、餐馆和酒吧数量的增加密切相关,几乎没有证据表明其他类别的企业会被挤出市场。我们还发现,当地商业环境的变化是房价变化的领先指标,星巴克(以及更普遍的咖啡店)进入一个社区预示着士绅化。每增加一家星巴克,房价就会上涨0.5%。
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引用次数: 19
Structural Behavioral Economics 结构行为经济学
Pub Date : 2018-07-01 DOI: 10.3386/W24797
Stefano DellaVigna
Abstract What is the role of structural estimation in behavioral economics? I discuss advantages, and limitations, of the work in Structural Behavioral Economics. I also cover common modeling choices and how to get started. Among the advantages, I argue that structural estimation builds on, and expands, a classical behavioral tool, simple calibrations, and that it benefits from the presence of a few parsimonious behavioral models which can be taken to the data. Estimation is also well suited for experimental work, common in behavioral economics, as it can lead to improvements in the experimental design. In addition, at a time where policy implications of behavioral work are increasingly discussed, it is important to ground these policy implications in (estimated) models. Structural work, however, has important limitations, which are relevant to its behavioral applications. Estimation takes much longer and the extra degree of complexity can make it difficult to know which of a series of assumptions is driving the results. For related reasons, it is also easy to over-reach with the welfare implications. Taking this into account, I provide a partial how-to guide to structural behavioral economics, covering: (i) the choice of estimation method; (ii) the modeling of heterogeneity; (iii) identification and sensitivity. Finally, I discuss common issues for the estimation of leading behavioral models. I illustrate this discussion with selected coverage of existing work in the literature.
结构估计在行为经济学中的作用是什么?我讨论了结构行为经济学工作的优点和局限性。我还介绍了常见的建模选择以及如何开始。在优点中,我认为结构估计建立并扩展了一个经典的行为工具,简单的校准,并且它受益于一些可以用于数据的简约行为模型的存在。估计也非常适合实验工作,这在行为经济学中很常见,因为它可以导致实验设计的改进。此外,在行为工作的政策含义被越来越多地讨论的时候,将这些政策含义置于(估计的)模型中是很重要的。然而,结构工作有重要的局限性,这与它的行为应用有关。评估需要更长的时间,并且额外的复杂性会使我们很难知道一系列假设中的哪一个驱动了结果。由于相关的原因,它也很容易对福利的影响进行过度解读。考虑到这一点,我提供了结构行为经济学的部分操作指南,包括:(I)估计方法的选择;(ii)异质性建模;(iii)识别和敏感性。最后,我讨论了主要行为模型估计的常见问题。我用文献中现有工作的精选报道来说明这一讨论。
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引用次数: 92
An Evaluation of the CPI Indexes for Prescription Drugs 处方药消费价格指数的评价
Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.3386/W24210
B. Bosworth, John Bieler, M. Kleinrock, E. Koepcke, E. Berndt
The prescription drug component of the Consumer Price Index (CPI measures recent and past drug price changes, and provides the basis for projecting future price trends and health care expenditures. However, there are concerns about the adequacy of the price data because of recent changes in the structure of the market for prescription drugs. We compare the prescription drug data of the CPI with a large alternative data set from the IQVIA Institute for Human Data Science. We analyze the overall consistency if the data from the two sources, and examine the influence of the large shift from brand to generic drug sales and the increased reliance on third party insurance plans that are excluded from the CPI sampling frame.
消费者价格指数(CPI)的处方药组成部分衡量最近和过去的药品价格变化,并为预测未来价格趋势和医疗保健支出提供基础。然而,由于最近处方药市场结构的变化,人们对价格数据的充分性表示担忧。我们将CPI的处方药数据与IQVIA人类数据科学研究所的大型替代数据集进行了比较。我们分析了这两个来源的数据的整体一致性,并检验了从品牌药到仿制药销售的大规模转变和对第三方保险计划的依赖增加的影响,这些都被排除在CPI抽样框架之外。
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引用次数: 5
Recent Manufacturing Employment Growth: The Exception that Proves the Rule 近期制造业就业增长:例外证明规律
Pub Date : 2017-12-01 DOI: 10.3386/W24151
Robert Z. Lawrence
This Paper challenges two widely held views: first that trade performance has been the primary reason for the declining share of manufacturing employment in the United States and other industrial economies, and second that recent productivity growth in manufacturing has actually been quite rapid but is not accurately measured. The paper shows that for many decades, relatively faster productivity growth interacting with unresponsive demand has been the dominant force behind the declining share of employment in manufacturing in the United States and other industrial economies. It also shows that since 2010, however, the relationship has been reversed and slower productivity growth in manufacturing has been associated with more robust performance in manufacturing employment. These contrasting experiences suggest a tradeoff between the ability of the manufacturing sector to contribute to productivity growth and its ability to provide employment opportunities. While some blame measurement errors for the recently recorded slowdown in manufacturing productivity growth, spending patterns in the United States and elsewhere suggest that the productivity slowdown is real and that thus far fears about robots and other technological advances in manufacturing displacing large numbers of jobs appear misplaced.
本文挑战了两种广泛持有的观点:第一,贸易表现是美国和其他工业经济体制造业就业份额下降的主要原因;第二,制造业最近的生产率增长实际上相当迅速,但没有得到准确的衡量。这篇论文表明,几十年来,相对较快的生产率增长与缺乏反应的需求相互作用,一直是美国和其他工业经济体制造业就业份额下降背后的主导力量。然而,它还表明,自2010年以来,这种关系已经逆转,制造业生产率增长放缓与制造业就业表现更为强劲相关。这些截然不同的经验表明,制造业促进生产率增长的能力与其提供就业机会的能力之间存在权衡。虽然一些人将最近制造业生产率增长放缓的记录归咎于测量误差,但美国和其他地方的支出模式表明,生产率放缓是真实存在的,迄今为止,对制造业机器人和其他技术进步取代大量工作岗位的担忧似乎是多余的。
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引用次数: 13
Artificial Intelligence and its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment 人工智能及其对收入分配和失业的影响
Pub Date : 2017-12-01 DOI: 10.3386/W24174
Anton Korinek, J. Stiglitz
Inequality is one of the main challenges posed by the proliferation of artificial intelligence (AI) and other forms of worker-replacing technological progress. This paper provides a taxonomy of the associated economic issues: First, we discuss the general conditions under which new technologies such as AI may lead to a Pareto improvement. Secondly, we delineate the two main channels through which inequality is affected – the surplus arising to innovators and redistributions arising from factor price changes. Third, we provide several simple economic models to describe how policy can counter these effects, even in the case of a “singularity” where machines come to dominate human labor. Under plausible conditions, non-distortionary taxation can be levied to compensate those who otherwise might lose. Fourth, we describe the two main channels through which technological progress may lead to technological unemployment – via efficiency wage effects and as a transitional phenomenon. Lastly, we speculate on how technologies to create super-human levels of intelligence may affect inequality and on how to save humanity from the Malthusian destiny that may ensue.
不平等是人工智能(AI)和其他形式的替代工人的技术进步的扩散所带来的主要挑战之一。本文提供了相关经济问题的分类:首先,我们讨论了人工智能等新技术可能导致帕累托改进的一般条件。其次,我们描述了影响不平等的两个主要渠道——创新者产生的剩余和要素价格变化引起的再分配。第三,我们提供了几个简单的经济模型来描述政策如何抵消这些影响,即使在机器主宰人类劳动的“奇点”情况下也是如此。在合理的条件下,可以征收非扭曲性税收,以补偿那些否则可能遭受损失的人。第四,我们描述了技术进步可能导致技术失业的两个主要渠道——通过效率工资效应和作为过渡现象。最后,我们推测创造超人智力水平的技术如何影响不平等,以及如何将人类从可能随之而来的马尔萨斯命运中拯救出来。
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引用次数: 248
The Effects of Land Markets on Resource Allocation and Agricultural Productivity 土地市场对资源配置和农业生产力的影响
Pub Date : 2017-11-01 DOI: 10.3386/w24034
Chaoran Chen, Diego Restuccia, Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis
We assess the effects of land markets on misallocation and productivity by exploiting policy-driven variation in land rentals across time and space arising from a large-scale land certification reform in Ethiopia, where land remains owned by the state. Our main finding from detailed micro panel data is that land rentals substantially reduce misallocation and increase agricultural productivity. Our evidence builds from an empirical difference-in-difference strategy, an instrumental variable approach, and a calibrated quantitative macroeconomic framework with heterogeneous household-farms that replicates, without targeting, the empirical effects. These effects are nonlinear, impacting more farms farther away from efficient operational scale, consistent with our theory. Using our model, we find that more active land markets reduce inequality, an important concern for the design of land policy. We also find that the positive effects of land markets are mainly driven by formal market rentals as opposed to informal rentals. Finally, our analysis also provides evidence that land markets increase the adoption of more advanced technologies such as the use of fertilizers.
我们评估了土地市场对错配和生产力的影响,方法是利用埃塞俄比亚大规模土地认证改革导致的土地租金在时间和空间上的政策驱动变化。埃塞俄比亚的土地仍然归国家所有。从详细的微观面板数据中,我们的主要发现是,土地租金大大减少了错配,提高了农业生产率。我们的证据建立在经验差异策略、工具变量方法和校准的定量宏观经济框架的基础上,该框架包含异质家庭农场,可以复制经验效应,但不针对经验效应。这些影响是非线性的,影响更多远离有效运营规模的农场,与我们的理论一致。使用我们的模型,我们发现更活跃的土地市场减少了不平等,这是土地政策设计的一个重要问题。我们还发现,土地市场的积极效应主要是由正式市场租金驱动的,而不是由非正式租金驱动的。最后,我们的分析还提供了证据,表明土地市场促进了肥料等更先进技术的采用。
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引用次数: 79
期刊
Kauffman: Conferences & Seminars (Topic)
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