We model an optimal stopping problem describing the decision of an individual officer to retire from the Army. Our model incorporates the High Three retirement system and current compensation. We solve the resulting Markov decision process model by dynamic programming and investigate model sensitivities. Previous results from similar models suggested that the due course officer would reach an optimal retirement state at 23 years if passed over for promotion to Colonel, and at 26 years if selected for promotion. Our results suggest that the change in compensation structures and the retirement system have shifted the first optimal retirement state for most officers to be as soon as vested in retirement benefits, currently at 20 years. We explore manpower planning and policy implications of shifting retirement behavior and sensitivity of our model to altering model assumptions.
{"title":"Optimal Army Officer Retirement","authors":"Andrew O. Hall, M. Fu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2445111","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2445111","url":null,"abstract":"We model an optimal stopping problem describing the decision of an individual officer to retire from the Army. Our model incorporates the High Three retirement system and current compensation. We solve the resulting Markov decision process model by dynamic programming and investigate model sensitivities. Previous results from similar models suggested that the due course officer would reach an optimal retirement state at 23 years if passed over for promotion to Colonel, and at 26 years if selected for promotion. Our results suggest that the change in compensation structures and the retirement system have shifted the first optimal retirement state for most officers to be as soon as vested in retirement benefits, currently at 20 years. We explore manpower planning and policy implications of shifting retirement behavior and sensitivity of our model to altering model assumptions.","PeriodicalId":284824,"journal":{"name":"SIRN: Retirement Decision-Making (Sub-Topic)","volume":"74 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124993765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
People who have divorced are entitled to Social Security spousal benefits if their marriages lasted at least ten years. This paper uses 1985-1995 Vital Statistics data and the 2008-2011 American Community Surveys to analyze how this rule affects divorce decisions. I find evidence that the ten-year rule results in a small increase in divorces for the general population; however, the effects vary greatly by age. Divorce decisions change very little for people under the age of 35. For people 55 and older, however, divorces increase by approximately 20 percent around the ten-year cutoff, which leads to an increase in the likelihood of being divorced of 11.7 percent at ten years of marriage. For people between the ages of 35 and 55, who account for over half of divorces, the likelihood of being divorced increases by almost 6 percent as marriages cross the ten-year mark. This heterogeneity across ages likely exists because older people are more focused on retirement and have less time to remarry. These results indicate many people delay divorcing because they need Social Security benefits.
{"title":"Social Security and Divorce Decisions","authors":"M. Dillender","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2390815","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2390815","url":null,"abstract":"People who have divorced are entitled to Social Security spousal benefits if their marriages lasted at least ten years. This paper uses 1985-1995 Vital Statistics data and the 2008-2011 American Community Surveys to analyze how this rule affects divorce decisions. I find evidence that the ten-year rule results in a small increase in divorces for the general population; however, the effects vary greatly by age. Divorce decisions change very little for people under the age of 35. For people 55 and older, however, divorces increase by approximately 20 percent around the ten-year cutoff, which leads to an increase in the likelihood of being divorced of 11.7 percent at ten years of marriage. For people between the ages of 35 and 55, who account for over half of divorces, the likelihood of being divorced increases by almost 6 percent as marriages cross the ten-year mark. This heterogeneity across ages likely exists because older people are more focused on retirement and have less time to remarry. These results indicate many people delay divorcing because they need Social Security benefits.","PeriodicalId":284824,"journal":{"name":"SIRN: Retirement Decision-Making (Sub-Topic)","volume":"150 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133751619","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Individuals’ planned retirement age is affected by a trade-off between financial costs (a feasibility oriented consideration) and the number of years in retirement (a desirability oriented consideration). Previous research shows that construal level interventions (i.e., activating a global vs. local mindset with individuals) affect the relative importance of these two types of decision aspects such that primary considerations become more important under a global mindset compared to secondary considerations. In this research we predict that this results in an age-related reversal of the effect of a construal level induced global mindset on planned retirement age. The reason is that as individuals’ chronic temporal distance to retirement decreases (i.e., they become older) their primary retirement goals are likely to change. Younger individuals are temporally distant from retirement and primarily driven by desirability goals, while older individuals are temporally close to retirement and driven by feasibility goals. Therefore, since a global construal level intervention increases the impact of individuals’ primary goals, we predict that such an intervention decreases planned retirement age for the younger age group but increases it for the older age group. Results from two online surveys confirm this predicted decision process. They show first that indeed younger individuals are more likely than older individuals to plan for a retirement age that they cannot afford. Second, the results demonstrate that a construal level intervention-induced global mindset increases the impact of desirability considerations on planned retirement age for younger individuals (and lowers planned retirement age), but that it increases the impact of feasibility considerations for older individuals (and increases planned retirement age). Jointly, these findings underline the importance of taking into account both individuals’ chronic and situationally-induced mental construals of the planned retirement decision when designing policy communications to promote individuals’ retirement at a later age.
{"title":"Promoting Later Planned Retirement: The Differential Impact of Construal Level Interventions for Younger and Older Individuals","authors":"R. van Schie, B. Dellaert, B. Donkers","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2398368","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2398368","url":null,"abstract":"Individuals’ planned retirement age is affected by a trade-off between financial costs (a feasibility oriented consideration) and the number of years in retirement (a desirability oriented consideration). Previous research shows that construal level interventions (i.e., activating a global vs. local mindset with individuals) affect the relative importance of these two types of decision aspects such that primary considerations become more important under a global mindset compared to secondary considerations. In this research we predict that this results in an age-related reversal of the effect of a construal level induced global mindset on planned retirement age. The reason is that as individuals’ chronic temporal distance to retirement decreases (i.e., they become older) their primary retirement goals are likely to change. Younger individuals are temporally distant from retirement and primarily driven by desirability goals, while older individuals are temporally close to retirement and driven by feasibility goals. Therefore, since a global construal level intervention increases the impact of individuals’ primary goals, we predict that such an intervention decreases planned retirement age for the younger age group but increases it for the older age group. Results from two online surveys confirm this predicted decision process. They show first that indeed younger individuals are more likely than older individuals to plan for a retirement age that they cannot afford. Second, the results demonstrate that a construal level intervention-induced global mindset increases the impact of desirability considerations on planned retirement age for younger individuals (and lowers planned retirement age), but that it increases the impact of feasibility considerations for older individuals (and increases planned retirement age). Jointly, these findings underline the importance of taking into account both individuals’ chronic and situationally-induced mental construals of the planned retirement decision when designing policy communications to promote individuals’ retirement at a later age.","PeriodicalId":284824,"journal":{"name":"SIRN: Retirement Decision-Making (Sub-Topic)","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130600990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We use a confirmatory factor analysis to study the relation between the importance of a broad spectrum of saving motives, such as saving for retirement, and saving behavior. Survey data show that many respondents save for retirement in unconventional retirement accounts, such as investments in real estate. We show that finding the retirement motive important does not directly translate in additional retirement savings. We show that the annuity stream generated by conventional and unconventional accounts from age 65 onwards is small and that most savings are residual and are not being put aside for a specific motive. Also self-employed retirement savings are low, even though this group has generally no occupational pension.
{"title":"Did You Really Save so Little for Your Retirement? An Analysis of Retirement Savings and Unconventional Retirement Accounts","authors":"M. Mastrogiacomo, R. Alessie","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1975251","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1975251","url":null,"abstract":"We use a confirmatory factor analysis to study the relation between the importance of a broad spectrum of saving motives, such as saving for retirement, and saving behavior. Survey data show that many respondents save for retirement in unconventional retirement accounts, such as investments in real estate. We show that finding the retirement motive important does not directly translate in additional retirement savings. We show that the annuity stream generated by conventional and unconventional accounts from age 65 onwards is small and that most savings are residual and are not being put aside for a specific motive. Also self-employed retirement savings are low, even though this group has generally no occupational pension.","PeriodicalId":284824,"journal":{"name":"SIRN: Retirement Decision-Making (Sub-Topic)","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115916825","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
With the leading edge of the Baby Boom generation reaching traditional retirement ages, decisionmakers need a comprehensive understanding of the boomers’ social, economic, and health characteristics – both in terms of resources and needs – in order to adopt effective public policies and private services to meet the needs of an aging population. One area of particular importance is their need for housing and long-term care services. A variety of options is available to meet these needs, including independent living (IL) and assisted living (AL) residences…
{"title":"Costs and Concerns Among Residents in Seniors Housing and Care Communities: Evidence from the Residents Financial Survey","authors":"Norma B. Coe, A. Wu","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2316860","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2316860","url":null,"abstract":"With the leading edge of the Baby Boom generation reaching traditional retirement ages, decisionmakers need a comprehensive understanding of the boomers’ social, economic, and health characteristics – both in terms of resources and needs – in order to adopt effective public policies and private services to meet the needs of an aging population. One area of particular importance is their need for housing and long-term care services. A variety of options is available to meet these needs, including independent living (IL) and assisted living (AL) residences…","PeriodicalId":284824,"journal":{"name":"SIRN: Retirement Decision-Making (Sub-Topic)","volume":"160 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123025599","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
With the leading edge of the baby boom generation reaching retirement age, decisionmakers need a comprehensive understanding of their social, economic, and health characteristics – both in terms of resources and needs – in order to adopt effective public policies and private services to meet the needs of an aging population. One area of particular importance is their need for housing and long-term care services. A variety of options is available to meet these needs, including independent living (IL) and assisted living (AL) residences…
{"title":"Financial Well-Being of Residents in Seniors Housing and Care Communities: Evidence from the Residents Financial Survey","authors":"Norma B. Coe, A. Wu","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2316861","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2316861","url":null,"abstract":"With the leading edge of the baby boom generation reaching retirement age, decisionmakers need a comprehensive understanding of their social, economic, and health characteristics – both in terms of resources and needs – in order to adopt effective public policies and private services to meet the needs of an aging population. One area of particular importance is their need for housing and long-term care services. A variety of options is available to meet these needs, including independent living (IL) and assisted living (AL) residences…","PeriodicalId":284824,"journal":{"name":"SIRN: Retirement Decision-Making (Sub-Topic)","volume":"149 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127267497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Chris Browning, Benjamin F. Cummings, Michael S. Finke, Thomas C. O’Malley, Shaun Pfeiffer
The Millennial generation in the U.S. faces greater expected retirement needs, yet it has come of age in a period of declining household savings. A combination of reduced defined benefit availability, threats to Social Security and Medicare, increasing public debt, rising taxes, reduced expectations of economic growth and asset yields, and increasing longevity suggest that Millennials need to save more than prior generations. Evidence from nationally representative surveys suggests that 20‐somethings are saving less now than in the recent past, and may have fallen even further behind during the Great Recession after loading up on housing debt. There is also ample evidence that individual investors in general do not have the knowledge or patience to make effective investment decisions within discretionary retirement accounts. Perhaps of even more concern is the widening disparity in saving among the Millennials due to greater individual responsibility for funding retirement income coupled with low financial literacy and an increasingly complex financial marketplace. To increase savings rates, we suggest an emphasis on improving financial knowledge and marketing that highlights the consequences of low retirement savings to help young people visualize the trade-off from the choices they make today. In addition to generating increased awareness of the benefits from saving, the entire system of retirement saving in the U.S. needs to be simplified in order to improve participation rates, tax efficiency and investor performance. We propose improved disclosure that allows investors to see how their savings translates into an annuity stream at retirement, simplified investment options that allow the average investor to make better choices and more realistic employer participation rates that will lead to a more progressive, portable retirement savings system that is more likely to provide an adequate retirement income for a greater proportion of today's young investors.
{"title":"Saving for a Bleaker Tomorrow: iOMe Challenge 2010","authors":"Chris Browning, Benjamin F. Cummings, Michael S. Finke, Thomas C. O’Malley, Shaun Pfeiffer","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.1747027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.1747027","url":null,"abstract":"The Millennial generation in the U.S. faces greater expected retirement needs, yet it has come of age in a period of declining household savings. A combination of reduced defined benefit availability, threats to Social Security and Medicare, increasing public debt, rising taxes, reduced expectations of economic growth and asset yields, and increasing longevity suggest that Millennials need to save more than prior generations. Evidence from nationally representative surveys suggests that 20‐somethings are saving less now than in the recent past, and may have fallen even further behind during the Great Recession after loading up on housing debt. There is also ample evidence that individual investors in general do not have the knowledge or patience to make effective investment decisions within discretionary retirement accounts. Perhaps of even more concern is the widening disparity in saving among the Millennials due to greater individual responsibility for funding retirement income coupled with low financial literacy and an increasingly complex financial marketplace. To increase savings rates, we suggest an emphasis on improving financial knowledge and marketing that highlights the consequences of low retirement savings to help young people visualize the trade-off from the choices they make today. In addition to generating increased awareness of the benefits from saving, the entire system of retirement saving in the U.S. needs to be simplified in order to improve participation rates, tax efficiency and investor performance. We propose improved disclosure that allows investors to see how their savings translates into an annuity stream at retirement, simplified investment options that allow the average investor to make better choices and more realistic employer participation rates that will lead to a more progressive, portable retirement savings system that is more likely to provide an adequate retirement income for a greater proportion of today's young investors.","PeriodicalId":284824,"journal":{"name":"SIRN: Retirement Decision-Making (Sub-Topic)","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127149285","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Financing retirement is one of the major challenges facing an aging U.S. population. If individuals continue to retire in their early 60s, many will be hard pressed to maintain an adequate standard of living throughout retirement due to the declining role of Social Security, the shift to 401(k) plans, and low personal saving rates. Combine the retirement income crunch with the dramatic increase in life expectancy, and continued employment in later life appears to be an attractive option. While it is clear that working longer would benefit older Americans financially, less attention has focused on the non-monetary effects of work at older ages. This brief addresses the impact of late-life paid work on physical and psychological well-being. The first section reviews the literature on work at older ages and elderly well-being. The second section describes the analysis. The third and fourth sections present the results. The fifth section identifies vulnerable groups. A final section offers concluding thoughts...
{"title":"Does Working Longer Make People Healthier and Happier?","authors":"E. Calvo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2302705","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2302705","url":null,"abstract":"Financing retirement is one of the major challenges facing an aging U.S. population. If individuals continue to retire in their early 60s, many will be hard pressed to maintain an adequate standard of living throughout retirement due to the declining role of Social Security, the shift to 401(k) plans, and low personal saving rates. Combine the retirement income crunch with the dramatic increase in life expectancy, and continued employment in later life appears to be an attractive option. While it is clear that working longer would benefit older Americans financially, less attention has focused on the non-monetary effects of work at older ages. This brief addresses the impact of late-life paid work on physical and psychological well-being. The first section reviews the literature on work at older ages and elderly well-being. The second section describes the analysis. The third and fourth sections present the results. The fifth section identifies vulnerable groups. A final section offers concluding thoughts...","PeriodicalId":284824,"journal":{"name":"SIRN: Retirement Decision-Making (Sub-Topic)","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2006-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130131118","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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