Applications of time series models serve two different purposes: (1) as forecasting techniques, they are used to project the trajectory of a variable of interest during a certain number of future periods; (2) in the analysis of interventions, they are used to evaluate the effect of a significant disturbance on the process being studied. We use both types of application to study monthly tax revenues in Guatemala. In Section 2 we use data for 2010-2019 in order to compare two alternative models: (a) the Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) model, and (b) the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing model. In Section 3 we use post-2019 data to estimate the fiscal effects of the emergency measures implemented to contain the Covid-19 pandemic.
{"title":"Estimating the Impact of the Covid-19 Emergency on Tax Revenues in Guatemala: A Time Series Approach","authors":"J. H. Cole","doi":"10.46671/2521-2486.1015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46671/2521-2486.1015","url":null,"abstract":"Applications of time series models serve two different purposes: (1) as forecasting techniques, they are used to project the trajectory of a variable of interest during a certain number of future periods; (2) in the analysis of interventions, they are used to evaluate the effect of a significant disturbance on the process being studied. We use both types of application to study monthly tax revenues in Guatemala. In Section 2 we use data for 2010-2019 in order to compare two alternative models: (a) the Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) model, and (b) the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing model. In Section 3 we use post-2019 data to estimate the fiscal effects of the emergency measures implemented to contain the Covid-19 pandemic.","PeriodicalId":296412,"journal":{"name":"Journal of New Finance","volume":"46 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116257189","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Emotional Finance: The Impact of Emotions on Investment Decisions","authors":"Leef H. Dierks, Sonja Tiggelbeck","doi":"10.46671/2521-2486.1019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46671/2521-2486.1019","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":296412,"journal":{"name":"Journal of New Finance","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124106107","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"What is New in Value Investing? A Systematic Literature Review","authors":"Florencia Roca","doi":"10.46671/2521-2486.1018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46671/2521-2486.1018","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":296412,"journal":{"name":"Journal of New Finance","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126433887","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Increasing Taxes or Spending Cuts: What Is More Effective for Fiscal Consolidation?","authors":"Daniel Lacalle","doi":"10.46671/2521-2486.1017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46671/2521-2486.1017","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":296412,"journal":{"name":"Journal of New Finance","volume":"124 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133340640","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A Pandemic of Protectionism: How Economic Isolationism Affects the Economy","authors":"Álvaro Martín","doi":"10.46671/2521-2486.1011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46671/2521-2486.1011","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":296412,"journal":{"name":"Journal of New Finance","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131470820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
José-María Rotellar-García, Mario González-Medrano
{"title":"Public-Private Partnerships in Transportation Infrastructures: A Tool to Overcome the Post-Covid-19 Economic Crisis in Spain","authors":"José-María Rotellar-García, Mario González-Medrano","doi":"10.46671/2521-2486.1012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46671/2521-2486.1012","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":296412,"journal":{"name":"Journal of New Finance","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116323050","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Beyond Mechanical Markets: Asset Price Swings, Risk, and the Role of the State (Book Review)","authors":"Adrian O. Ravier","doi":"10.46671/2521-2486.1007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46671/2521-2486.1007","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":296412,"journal":{"name":"Journal of New Finance","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117353481","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Banks directly manage their own liquidity. Banks also indirectly manage the liquidity of the entire economic system. In this article we discuss the relationship between endogenous and exogenous bank liquidity, and their corresponding relationship to the structure of production. We explore these liquidity relationships in the context of both a decentralized and centralized system of free banking, comparing both with the monopoly regime of central banks, “convertible and inconvertible liabilities. We analyze the incentives that engender a liquid “system in the context of free banking as well as the perversion of those same incentives in the context of central banking, which leads to breakdowns in the system’s ability to maintain liquidity. Additionally, we touch upon the fact that the criteria for individual liquidity and systemic liquidity do not coincide. They differ, and we explain their difference in a more expansive treatment of the concept of exogenous liquidity. Regarding that concept, as of late, central banks have been employing increasingly lax criteria for what constitutes eligible collateral that might be monetized.
{"title":"The Structure of Production and Endogenous and Exogenous Liquidity of Financial Intermediaries","authors":"D. Fernández","doi":"10.46671/2521-2486.1008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46671/2521-2486.1008","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Banks directly manage their own liquidity. Banks also indirectly manage the liquidity of the entire economic system. In this article we discuss the relationship between endogenous and exogenous bank liquidity, and their corresponding relationship to the structure of production. We explore these liquidity relationships in the context of both a decentralized and centralized system of free banking, comparing both with the monopoly regime of central banks, “convertible and inconvertible liabilities. We analyze the incentives that engender a liquid “system in the context of free banking as well as the perversion of those same incentives in the context of central banking, which leads to breakdowns in the system’s ability to maintain liquidity. Additionally, we touch upon the fact that the criteria for individual liquidity and systemic liquidity do not coincide. They differ, and we explain their difference in a more expansive treatment of the concept of exogenous liquidity. Regarding that concept, as of late, central banks have been employing increasingly lax criteria for what constitutes eligible collateral that might be monetized.","PeriodicalId":296412,"journal":{"name":"Journal of New Finance","volume":"33 Suppl 4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116276355","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Throughout his life, Friedrich Hayek worked towards prescribing a monetary policy under which the world economy would again enjoy the stability it had known under the classical international gold standard system. This paper presents three banking and monetary systems that were pivotal in the history of banking and closely scrutinized by Hayek. The paper outlines those systems, summarizes Hayek’s comments on each and then discusses the recent literature on the subject in the light of Hayek’s influence.
{"title":"Friedrich Hayek On Monetary and Banking Systems Reforms","authors":"Adrian O. Ravier","doi":"10.46671/2521-2486.1006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46671/2521-2486.1006","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Throughout his life, Friedrich Hayek worked towards prescribing a monetary policy under which the world economy would again enjoy the stability it had known under the classical international gold standard system. This paper presents three banking and monetary systems that were pivotal in the history of banking and closely scrutinized by Hayek. The paper outlines those systems, summarizes Hayek’s comments on each and then discusses the recent literature on the subject in the light of Hayek’s influence.","PeriodicalId":296412,"journal":{"name":"Journal of New Finance","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114080395","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The spread and mortality rate of the COVID-19 virus has created enormous strains on global healthcare systems and driven governments to take extreme measures to contain the virus, including the lock down of most citizens and shutting down most economic sectors. Due to these unique challenges and coming from an economy that was weak already in 2018 and 2019, the world faces a global crisis of unprecedented impact and high uncertainty about the recovery process. In this paper, we analyze how the world economy is addressing the COVID-19 pandemic. We start with the situation of the main economic regions at the end of last year to understand the tools available to fight against what could be the worst crisis since World War II, according to the IMF1. Moreover, we review the estimated economic impact of COVID-19, as well as the expected recovery and its time frame. Additionally, we reflect on the fiscal and monetary measures adopted by different countries, especially G7 economies, to tackle the crisis. Finally, we discuss the optimal policies to overcome the situation and advance towards economic recovery and the stabilization of public finances. This crisis is a supply shock added to a forced shutdown of the economy. As such, traditional tools to boost credit demand and usual demand-side policies alone are likely to generate little positive effect, as any aggregate demand that may be incentivized will not likely be followed by aggregate supply. A combination of demand-side and supply-side measures may prove to be more effective to boost the recovery after the pandemic.
{"title":"Monetary and Fiscal Policies in the COVID-19 Crisis. Will They Work?","authors":"Daniel Lacalle","doi":"10.35995/JBAFP2030018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35995/JBAFP2030018","url":null,"abstract":"The spread and mortality rate of the COVID-19 virus has created enormous strains on global healthcare systems and driven governments to take extreme measures to contain the virus, including the lock down of most citizens and shutting down most economic sectors. Due to these unique challenges and coming from an economy that was weak already in 2018 and 2019, the world faces a global crisis of unprecedented impact and high uncertainty about the recovery process. In this paper, we analyze how the world economy is addressing the COVID-19 pandemic. We start with the situation of the main economic regions at the end of last year to understand the tools available to fight against what could be the worst crisis since World War II, according to the IMF1. Moreover, we review the estimated economic impact of COVID-19, as well as the expected recovery and its time frame. Additionally, we reflect on the fiscal and monetary measures adopted by different countries, especially G7 economies, to tackle the crisis. Finally, we discuss the optimal policies to overcome the situation and advance towards economic recovery and the stabilization of public finances. This crisis is a supply shock added to a forced shutdown of the economy. As such, traditional tools to boost credit demand and usual demand-side policies alone are likely to generate little positive effect, as any aggregate demand that may be incentivized will not likely be followed by aggregate supply. A combination of demand-side and supply-side measures may prove to be more effective to boost the recovery after the pandemic.","PeriodicalId":296412,"journal":{"name":"Journal of New Finance","volume":"80 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129778929","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：