Wen Long, J. Jiao, Ximing Liang, Ming Xu, Mingzhu Tang, Shaohong Cai
Estimating parameters and establishing high-accuracy and high-reliability models of photovoltaic (PV) modules by using the actual current-voltage data is important to simulate, model, and optimize the PV systems. Several meta-heuristic optimization techniques have been developed to estimate the parameters of the solar PV models. However, it is still a challenging task to accurately, reliably, and quickly estimate the unknown parameters of PV models. This paper proposes a novel hybrid seagull optimization algorithm (HSOA) for estimating the unknown parameters of PV models effectively and accurately. In proposed HSOA, the personal historical best information is embedded into position search equation to improve the solution precision. A novel nonlinear escaping energy factor based on cosine function is presented for balancing global exploration and local exploitation. The differential mutation strategy is introduced to escape from the local optima. We firstly select twelve classical benchmark test functions to investigate the feasibility of HSOA, and experimental results show that HSOA is superior to most compared methods. Then, HSOA is used for solving parameters estimation problem of three benchmark solar PV models. The comparison results demonstrate that HSOA is superior to BOA, GWO, WOA, HHO, SOA, EEGWO, and ISCA on solution quality, convergence and reliability.
{"title":"Parameters Estimation of Photovoltaic Models Using a Novel Hybrid Seagull Optimization Algorithm","authors":"Wen Long, J. Jiao, Ximing Liang, Ming Xu, Mingzhu Tang, Shaohong Cai","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3924288","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3924288","url":null,"abstract":"Estimating parameters and establishing high-accuracy and high-reliability models of photovoltaic (PV) modules by using the actual current-voltage data is important to simulate, model, and optimize the PV systems. Several meta-heuristic optimization techniques have been developed to estimate the parameters of the solar PV models. However, it is still a challenging task to accurately, reliably, and quickly estimate the unknown parameters of PV models. This paper proposes a novel hybrid seagull optimization algorithm (HSOA) for estimating the unknown parameters of PV models effectively and accurately. In proposed HSOA, the personal historical best information is embedded into position search equation to improve the solution precision. A novel nonlinear escaping energy factor based on cosine function is presented for balancing global exploration and local exploitation. The differential mutation strategy is introduced to escape from the local optima. We firstly select twelve classical benchmark test functions to investigate the feasibility of HSOA, and experimental results show that HSOA is superior to most compared methods. Then, HSOA is used for solving parameters estimation problem of three benchmark solar PV models. The comparison results demonstrate that HSOA is superior to BOA, GWO, WOA, HHO, SOA, EEGWO, and ISCA on solution quality, convergence and reliability.","PeriodicalId":299310,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Mathematical Methods & Programming eJournal","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130381842","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The neoclassical theory of production supports the identity i.e. the Output-Labor ratio equals wage-labor ratio plus profit labor ratio. Here profit is treated as capital. The variables wage to labor ratio and capital to labor ratio are considered real variables in the neoclassical theory; so that the identity can be differentiated by these two variables in mathematical calculations of the growth of the output per unit of labor. The paper shows that these variables are not the real variables at all times. Hence, the derived measurement of this identity is not true. The paper tries to explain the topological behavior of these variables and explains the possible conditions to be the real numbers.
{"title":"Input Indivisibility and the Measurement Error","authors":"Dipankar Das","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3906650","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3906650","url":null,"abstract":"The neoclassical theory of production supports the identity i.e. the Output-Labor ratio equals wage-labor ratio plus profit labor ratio. Here profit is treated as capital. The variables wage to labor ratio and capital to labor ratio are considered real variables in the neoclassical theory; so that the identity can be differentiated by these two variables in mathematical calculations of the growth of the output per unit of labor. The paper shows that these variables are not the real variables at all times. Hence, the derived measurement of this identity is not true. The paper tries to explain the topological behavior of these variables and explains the possible conditions to be the real numbers.","PeriodicalId":299310,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Mathematical Methods & Programming eJournal","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133577887","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper we show without using any fixed-point theorem argument, the existence of quadratically optimal equilibrium points of weakly potential bi-matrix games and quadratically optimal symmetric equilibrium points for those weakly potential square bi-matrix games which have potential matrices that are two-way matrices. The existence results are obtained as an optimal solution of a quadratic programming problem and hence constitute a refinement of the usual solution concepts for the subclass of games we consider.
{"title":"Quadratically optimal equilibrium points of weakly potential bi-matrix games","authors":"S. Lahiri","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3906596","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3906596","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we show without using any fixed-point theorem argument, the existence of quadratically optimal equilibrium points of weakly potential bi-matrix games and quadratically optimal symmetric equilibrium points for those weakly potential square bi-matrix games which have potential matrices that are two-way matrices. The existence results are obtained as an optimal solution of a quadratic programming problem and hence constitute a refinement of the usual solution concepts for the subclass of games we consider.","PeriodicalId":299310,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Mathematical Methods & Programming eJournal","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121426851","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper presents the mathematical background of the theory of cycle of money. It scrutinizes the equations and the mathematical proof of the theory of cycle of money.
本文介绍了货币周期理论产生的数学背景。它仔细研究了货币周期理论的方程和数学证明。
{"title":"Mathematical Background of the Theory of Cycle of Money","authors":"Constantinos Challoumis Κωνσταντίνος Χαλλουμής","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3902181","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3902181","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents the mathematical background of the theory of cycle of money. It scrutinizes the equations and the mathematical proof of the theory of cycle of money.","PeriodicalId":299310,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Mathematical Methods & Programming eJournal","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130076225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This note provides an example to show that the concavity of utility functions can not be dispensed with in Theorem 5 of 'Weak Monotone Comparative Statics'.
本文提供了一个例子来说明在“弱单调比较静力学”的定理5中，效用函数的凹性是不可避免的。
{"title":"An Example for 'Weak Monotone Comparative Statics'","authors":"Haoyu Liu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3896422","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3896422","url":null,"abstract":"This note provides an example to show that the concavity of utility functions can not be dispensed with in Theorem 5 of 'Weak Monotone Comparative Statics'.","PeriodicalId":299310,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Mathematical Methods & Programming eJournal","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116226142","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This is an R tutorial book for Financial Econometrics.
这是一本R语言的金融计量经济学教程。
{"title":"Financial Econometrics - R Tutorial Guidance","authors":"Yizhi Wang, S. Vigne","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3863563","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3863563","url":null,"abstract":"This is an R tutorial book for Financial Econometrics.","PeriodicalId":299310,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Mathematical Methods & Programming eJournal","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117084140","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines the effect of reduced self-control on impulsive borrowing in a laboratory experiment. We manipulate self-control using an ego depletion task and show that it is effective. Following the ego depletion task, participants can anonymously buy hot drinks on credit. We find no significant average effects, but find that treated individuals that have low financial literacy are more likely to borrow impulsively. We complement our experimental analysis with survey evidence that suggests that people with low self-control have more problems with the repayment of consumer debt. This relationship is, in line with the experimental results, weaker for individuals with high financial literacy.
{"title":"The Effect of Self-Control and Financial Literacy on Impulse Borrowing: Experimental Evidence","authors":"Antonia Grohmann, Jana S. Hamdan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3864924","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3864924","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the effect of reduced self-control on impulsive borrowing in a laboratory experiment. We manipulate self-control using an ego depletion task and show that it is effective. Following the ego depletion task, participants can anonymously buy hot drinks on credit. We find no significant average effects, but find that treated individuals that have low financial literacy are more likely to borrow impulsively. We complement our experimental analysis with survey evidence that suggests that people with low self-control have more problems with the repayment of consumer debt. This relationship is, in line with the experimental results, weaker for individuals with high financial literacy.","PeriodicalId":299310,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Mathematical Methods & Programming eJournal","volume":"98 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124999266","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Hyun-Soo Ahn, J. Silberholz, Xueze Song, Xiaoyu Wu
Since March 2020, numerous models have been developed to support policymakers in understanding, forecasting, and controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. Differences in data, assumptions, and underlying theory, coupled with unknowns about a novel virus, led these models to generate divergent forecasts and proposed responses. A policymaker using a single model is left to wonder if their decision is truly of high quality or if they are being misled by the idiosyncrasies of the selected model. In addition, many COVID-19 optimization models are cast as optimal control problems with abstract decision variables and frequent changes to policy, so translating the optimal solution to implementable actions is not straightforward.
We propose a multi-model optimization (MMO) framework that identifies policies that perform well across structurally distinct models, and we apply this to design 12-month COVID-19 containment strategies. Our approach differs from the existing literature in two important aspects. First, we optimize using multiple state-of-the-art forecasting models currently in use. Second, we intentionally draw feasible intervention levels from each state’s own past and current responses, making it easy to implement the proposed policy.
We find that a policy based on a single model can perform badly (cost increases of 100% or more) when models are misspecified, and that the MMO policy significantly diminishes the impact of model uncertainties. We propose optimal containment policies for all 50 US states over a one-year period and find that the optimal policy can vary significantly by state. We also study the impacts of virus variants and lockdown fatigue.
{"title":"Optimal COVID-19 Containment Strategies: Evidence Across Multiple Mathematical Models","authors":"Hyun-Soo Ahn, J. Silberholz, Xueze Song, Xiaoyu Wu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3834668","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3834668","url":null,"abstract":"Since March 2020, numerous models have been developed to support policymakers in understanding, forecasting, and controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. Differences in data, assumptions, and underlying theory, coupled with unknowns about a novel virus, led these models to generate divergent forecasts and proposed responses. A policymaker using a single model is left to wonder if their decision is truly of high quality or if they are being misled by the idiosyncrasies of the selected model. In addition, many COVID-19 optimization models are cast as optimal control problems with abstract decision variables and frequent changes to policy, so translating the optimal solution to implementable actions is not straightforward. <br><br>We propose a multi-model optimization (MMO) framework that identifies policies that perform well across structurally distinct models, and we apply this to design 12-month COVID-19 containment strategies. Our approach differs from the existing literature in two important aspects. First, we optimize using multiple state-of-the-art forecasting models currently in use. Second, we intentionally draw feasible intervention levels from each state’s own past and current responses, making it easy to implement the proposed policy. <br><br>We find that a policy based on a single model can perform badly (cost increases of 100% or more) when models are misspecified, and that the MMO policy significantly diminishes the impact of model uncertainties. We propose optimal containment policies for all 50 US states over a one-year period and find that the optimal policy can vary significantly by state. We also study the impacts of virus variants and lockdown fatigue.","PeriodicalId":299310,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Mathematical Methods & Programming eJournal","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121277603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We propose framing human action in physics before reaching to biology and social sciences, rearranging the order of their usual deployment. As an example, consider efforts to model altruism that start in a frame of psychological or social attributes such as reciprocity, empathy, and identity. Evolutionary roots might also be used by appeal to survival of the species from biology. Only then the modeler abstracts to work on notations, and to establish relationships using mathematical apparatus from physics. This top-down deployment of principles from various scientific disciplines has generated a body of coherent models, partially generalizable theories, and disagreements. In this paper we present a definition of action as a movement between two points in the relevant space, and explore reversing the direction of deploying scientific theories, starting with the principle of least action in physics to frame observed human action. Used as an organizing principle of the whole universe, optimization element in human behavior does not have to be presumed to arise from animate aspects of adaptive and cognitive faculties; emergence of social phenomena, when optimal, can be disconnected from methodological individualism. Our three-tier framework makes room for physical, biological and social science principles, proposing a new perspective on human behavior, sans reductionism.
{"title":"Framing Human Action in Physics: Valid Reconstruction, Invalid Reduction","authors":"S. Mousavi, S. Sunder","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3859682","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3859682","url":null,"abstract":"We propose framing human action in physics before reaching to biology and social sciences, rearranging the order of their usual deployment. As an example, consider efforts to model altruism that start in a frame of psychological or social attributes such as reciprocity, empathy, and identity. Evolutionary roots might also be used by appeal to survival of the species from biology. Only then the modeler abstracts to work on notations, and to establish relationships using mathematical apparatus from physics. This top-down deployment of principles from various scientific disciplines has generated a body of coherent models, partially generalizable theories, and disagreements. In this paper we present a definition of action as a movement between two points in the relevant space, and explore reversing the direction of deploying scientific theories, starting with the principle of least action in physics to frame observed human action. Used as an organizing principle of the whole universe, optimization element in human behavior does not have to be presumed to arise from animate aspects of adaptive and cognitive faculties; emergence of social phenomena, when optimal, can be disconnected from methodological individualism. Our three-tier framework makes room for physical, biological and social science principles, proposing a new perspective on human behavior, sans reductionism.","PeriodicalId":299310,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Mathematical Methods & Programming eJournal","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115458704","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper provides a general representation of endogenous and threshold-based regime switching models and develops an efficient numerical solution method. The regime-switching is triggered endogenously when some variables cross threshold conditions that can themselves be regime-dependent. We illustrate our approach using a RBC model with state-dependent government spending policies. It is shown that regime-switching models involve strong non linearities and discontinuities in the dynamics of the model. However, our numerical solution based on simulation and projection methods with regime-dependent policy rules is accurate, and fast enough, to efficiently take into all these challenging aspects. Several alternative specifications to the model and the method are studied.
{"title":"A General and Efficient Method for Solving Regime-Switching DSGE Models","authors":"Julien Albertini, Stéphane Moyen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3749328","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3749328","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides a general representation of endogenous and threshold-based regime switching models and develops an efficient numerical solution method. The regime-switching is triggered endogenously when some variables cross threshold conditions that can themselves be regime-dependent. We illustrate our approach using a RBC model with state-dependent government spending policies. It is shown that regime-switching models involve strong non linearities and discontinuities in the dynamics of the model. However, our numerical solution based on simulation and projection methods with regime-dependent policy rules is accurate, and fast enough, to efficiently take into all these challenging aspects. Several alternative specifications to the model and the method are studied.","PeriodicalId":299310,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Mathematical Methods & Programming eJournal","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129079030","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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